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November 28, 2025 12 mins

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This episode argues that K-12 struggles for a simple reason: students advance by time instead of mastery, creating widening skill gaps that erode confidence and long-term performance. We explore how AI, mastery learning, and a smarter motivation model can help most students reach top-tier achievement—while freeing up time instead of adding more work.

We begin by examining the cost of a time-based system, from falling test scores to chronic disengagement. We revisit mastery learning, Bloom’s Two Sigma findings, and the massive acceleration possible when students progress only after achieving true understanding. We explain how cognitive load, fact fluency, and working memory shape learning capacity, and how modern AI diagnostics can pinpoint a student’s zone of proximal development, enabling precise, closed-loop instruction.

The episode reframes motivation around a powerful idea: two hours of focused learning that earns time back, rather than piling on more tasks. We discuss how short-term incentives can spark identity-level shifts, the “bundle problem” in schools, and the evolving role of teachers as high-impact coaches rather than content deliverers. Finally, we examine how affordable AI tutors can drive global equity and allow school to focus on what humans do best—character, collaboration, and purpose.

High-volume keywords used: K-12 education, mastery learning, AI tutors, student motivation, Bloom’s Two Sigma, cognitive load, education reform, learning gaps

Listener Takeaways

  • Why time-based advancement creates lasting academic gaps
  • How mastery learning and Bloom’s insights can double performance
  • The role of AI diagnostics and ZPD targeting in personalized learning
  • A new motivation model: focused work that earns time back
  • How AI tutors enable equity and free schools to teach purpose and character

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Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_02 (00:00):
Welcome back to the deep dive.
Today we are uh tackling a topicthat is absolutely essential to
the future health of our nation.
And maybe surprisingly, it hasthese really deep ties to
medicine and science.
We're talking about K-12education.

SPEAKER_00 (00:17):
Aaron Powell It's so true that connection to health
is you know it's undeniable.
If you're not educating thepipeline of future doctors,
researchers, scientists, thenyou can't advance.
And the material we'vesynthesized today, it outlines
this, well, this radical modelthat really challenges what we
think kids are capable of.

SPEAKER_02 (00:33):
Aaron Powell Okay, so let's just let's unpack this
because the numbers are.

SPEAKER_00 (00:37):
Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 (00:37):
They're kind of staggering.
Trevor Burrus, Jr.

SPEAKER_00 (00:38):
They really are.

SPEAKER_02 (00:39):
We're spending something like a trillion
dollars a year.
A trillion on K-12 education inthe U.S.
Aaron Ross Powell, Jr.

SPEAKER_00 (00:46):
And the return on that investment is just broken.
It looks a lot like theinefficiencies you see in, say,
U.S.
healthcare spending.

SPEAKER_02 (00:52):
Trevor Burrus, Jr.: And you can see in the results.
I mean, the data shows academicstandards are actually falling.

SPEAKER_00 (00:56):
Aaron Powell Yeah, that's what's so fascinating.
You look at data from tests likethe NWAMAP test.
And the average eighth gradertoday knows measurably less than
an eighth grader in 2015 or2020.

SPEAKER_02 (01:07):
So we're spending more and kids are learning less.

SPEAKER_00 (01:10):
We are seeing a quantifiable decline.

SPEAKER_02 (01:12):
Aaron Powell And this gets to the core of the
crisis, which is it's a systemsproblem.
The whole thing is built on whatthe sources call a time-based
system.

SPEAKER_00 (01:21):
That's the key.
It's all about the clock and thecalendar.
A kid moves from second to thirdgrade because nine months have
passed.

SPEAKER_02 (01:28):
Not because they've actually mastered second grade
material.

SPEAKER_00 (01:31):
Exactly.
Not because they've proventhey're ready.
And these gaps, they're notsmall.

SPEAKER_02 (01:35):
The numbers are pretty sobering.
You can have an A student who'sactually like three years behind
grade level.

SPEAKER_00 (01:41):
And a B or C student, it could be five, even
seven years.
These are chasms.

SPEAKER_02 (01:46):
This is where the whole thing starts to cascade,
right?
Because you can't learn algebraif you don't understand the
stuff that comes before it.

SPEAKER_00 (01:52):
It's hierarchical.
It's like building a house on ashaky foundation.
The student thinks I'm bad atthis new thing, but the real
problem is a missing piece fromyears ago.

SPEAKER_02 (02:02):
Let's make this really concrete for you know for
you listening.
There's this example of astudent who scored a 740 on the
math SAT.

SPEAKER_00 (02:09):
Which is already an incredible score.
We're talking top five, 10%.

SPEAKER_02 (02:13):
But they were stuck.
They wanted that 780 or 790 andjust couldn't get there.
So the assumption was, oh, theymust be struggling with some
really complex pre-calc idea.

SPEAKER_00 (02:22):
Aaron Powell But when they did the diagnostic,
the issue was it it was way morebasic.
They lacked what's called factfluency.

SPEAKER_02 (02:29):
Aaron Powell Meaning they hadn't memorized their
times tables from third grade.

SPEAKER_00 (02:33):
Exactly.
They didn't know that seventimes eight is 50 SAT
automatically.
They had to calculate it.

SPEAKER_02 (02:38):
Aaron Powell And that, I mean, this is where the
cognitive science comes in.
That simple calculation, ittakes up a slot in your working
memory.

SPEAKER_00 (02:44):
Right.
Think of it like RAM in acomputer.
You only have a few slots.
If one of them is busycalculating seven times eight,
you don't have the mental spacefor the actual complex SAT
problem.

SPEAKER_01 (02:56):
It's what causes all those so-called careless errors.

SPEAKER_00 (02:59):
It's not carelessness, it's a system
overload.
And so they had the student justdrill the multiplication tables
until it was automatic.

SPEAKER_02 (03:07):
And the score went up to 790.

SPEAKER_00 (03:09):
Without learning any new advanced math, they just
freed up their brains RAM.

SPEAKER_02 (03:14):
That's incredible.
And it's the same thing with,say, chemistry, right?
If you don't have fluency withfractions from fourth grade, you
just can't do it.

SPEAKER_00 (03:22):
You can't.
And that's why the sportsanalogy is so powerful.
Parents just get it instantly.

SPEAKER_02 (03:27):
Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 (03:27):
No coach would have a player practice dunking if
they lose the ball 20% of thetime they dribble.

SPEAKER_02 (03:32):
Of course not.
You go back and work ondribbling, on the fundamentals.

SPEAKER_00 (03:35):
It has to be the same in academics.
By abandoning memorization forthese core facts, we're actually
sabotaging our kids' ability todo higher level thinking.

SPEAKER_02 (03:44):
Which brings us to the solution.
I mean, if every kid has theseunique gaps, how on earth do you
give every single one of them apersonal tutor?

SPEAKER_00 (03:53):
Well, we have to look at one of the biggest
findings in learning science.
It's called Bloom's Two Sigmaproblem.
The research showed, prettydefinitively, that if you give a
student one-on-one tutoring andyou hold them to a mastery
standard, meaning you don't moveon until they prove they know
it, they perform two standarddeviations better.

SPEAKER_02 (04:12):
Wait.
Two standard deviations?
That sounds like hyperbole.
What does that actually mean inthe real world?

SPEAKER_00 (04:17):
It's a bold claim, I know.
But the research suggests thatwith this model, 95% of all
eighth graders could perform atwhat we today consider the top
10% in math.

SPEAKER_02 (04:29):
You'd shift the entire curve.

SPEAKER_00 (04:30):
The whole curve.
It suggests that for most ofK-8, success isn't about some
innate IQ.
It's about effort and having theright instruction.

SPEAKER_02 (04:39):
And the speed, this is the other wild part.
Because it's so targeted, kidscan learn, what, 10 times
faster?

SPEAKER_00 (04:45):
The acceleration is shocking to people.
We have data showing an entiregrade level of math, like fourth
grade common core, can be doneto mastery in just 26 hours.
Yeah.
It's a difference between anefficient system and a deeply
inefficient one.

SPEAKER_02 (05:01):
So this is where the AI comes in.
You use this great analogy.
AI is like the light microscopefor education.
What do you mean by that?

SPEAKER_00 (05:08):
Aaron Powell For centuries, medicine was
basically guesswork.
Then the microscope came alongand we could suddenly see the
germs, the invisible cause.
Right.
AI is that instrument foreducation.
It lets us see exactly where astudent is struggling in real
time and deliver exactly whatthey need.

SPEAKER_02 (05:22):
Aaron Powell And the key is the measurement, I
assume.

SPEAKER_00 (05:24):
Aaron Powell Precisely.
It provides precise teaching andcrucially closed loop
measurement.
You take out all the variables,like a teacher having a bad day,
and you can scientificallymeasure what works best to get a
kid to mastery faster.

SPEAKER_02 (05:38):
Aaron Powell So how does it actually keep a student
locked in and learning so fast?

SPEAKER_00 (05:42):
Aaron Powell It's all about keeping them in what's
called the zone of proximaldevelopment or ZPD.
The sweet spot.
The sweet spot.
Where it's hard enough to bechallenging, but not so hard
they get frustrated and quit.
The AI is constantly adjustingthe difficulty to keep them
right around 80 to 85% accuracy.

SPEAKER_02 (05:58):
Aaron Powell Which is just impossible for one
teacher to do for 30 kids atonce.

SPEAKER_00 (06:02):
Impossible.
The AI also manages cognitiveload, the way questions are
presented, and this is thereally cool part, it uses
analogies based on the kids'interests.

SPEAKER_02 (06:12):
So it leverages what they already know.

SPEAKER_00 (06:14):
Exactly.
If a kid already has a mentalframework for, say, baseball
stats, the AI uses thatframework to teach them about
fractions.

SPEAKER_02 (06:22):
Okay, but if the tech is this good, why have so
many educational apps failedbefore?
This brings us to motivation,right?
It's the elephant in the room.

SPEAKER_00 (06:32):
It's 90% of the solution.

SPEAKER_02 (06:33):
Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 (06:34):
And the old pitch was just wrong.
They sold 2x learning.

SPEAKER_02 (06:37):
Learn twice as fast.

SPEAKER_00 (06:39):
Which to a kid just sounds like twice as much work.
The pivot that changedeverything was pitching two-hour
learning.

SPEAKER_02 (06:44):
Give kids their time back.

SPEAKER_00 (06:45):
Give them their time back.
That's a deal every kid on theplanet will take.
The model is you engageintensely for two hours, you
reach mastery for the day.

SPEAKER_02 (06:53):
And the rest of the day is yours for sports, for
projects, for just being a kid.

SPEAKER_00 (06:57):
And that's the fuel you need to enforce really high
standards because now the kid isearning that time back.
They're going through thatstruggle, fail, succeed loop,
which builds realself-confidence.

SPEAKER_02 (07:07):
And this has to connect to that cultural
narrative you hear all the time,especially from middle school
girls, of I'm just not a mathperson.

SPEAKER_00 (07:14):
Aaron Powell That's a societal meme.
It's not a biological reality.
The science is clear on this.

SPEAKER_02 (07:19):
In a mastery system, it's not about being a math
person.

SPEAKER_00 (07:21):
No, academic performance, especially in K-8,
becomes a decision.
A decision about effort andpersistence, not about some
fixed capability you were bornwith.

SPEAKER_02 (07:31):
So how do you get a kid to make that decision?
How do you give them thatinitial push to believe their
effort matters?

SPEAKER_00 (07:38):
Aaron Powell You can use extrinsic motivators as uh
like kindling for the fire.
No, paying them.
For a short time, yeah.
The sources talk about offering$100 to score a hundred on a
state test, or even a thousandfor top one percent performance.

SPEAKER_02 (07:52):
That feels controversial.

SPEAKER_00 (07:53):
The goal isn't to pay them forever.
The goal is that a kid who workshard and then sees their name in
the top 1% has this profoundinternal shift.
They think, wow, I didn't know Icould do that.

SPEAKER_02 (08:05):
And that feeling, that new self-image becomes its
own reward.
The confidence becomesintrinsic.

SPEAKER_00 (08:12):
Exactly.
The kindling starts a fire thatthen burns on its own.

SPEAKER_02 (08:16):
So if the model works, the tech is here, and the
motivation is figured out.
Why isn't this everywhere?
What are the systemic barriers?

SPEAKER_00 (08:26):
It's really what the research calls the bundle
problem.

SPEAKER_02 (08:29):
The bundle problem.

SPEAKER_00 (08:30):
For 90% of parents, academics is not the only reason
they choose a school, it's awhole bundle of services.

SPEAKER_02 (08:36):
You mean things like community, friendships,
childcare, just the routine ofit all?

SPEAKER_00 (08:41):
Aaron Ross Powell Exactly.
They value the relationship withthe teacher, the convenience of
walking to school.
You can't just unbundle the mathpart and swap it out, even if
the new version is 10 timesbetter.

SPEAKER_02 (08:51):
And that raises the question about teachers.
I mean, is the future just kidsstaring at screens in AI robot
terminator schools?

SPEAKER_00 (08:59):
No, far from it.
The role of the teacher or theguide, as they're often called,
becomes more important thanever.

SPEAKER_02 (09:05):
How so?

SPEAKER_00 (09:05):
They get to stop being a lecturer and a grader,
which is the part most of themhate.
The AI does that 80% of thetime.

SPEAKER_02 (09:11):
Which frees them up to do.

SPEAKER_00 (09:13):
Yeah.
To be mentors, to provide thathigh support, high standards
coaching, to focus on character,motivation, and emotional
support.
They become the crucial human inthe loop.

SPEAKER_02 (09:24):
And the technology is only getting better.
We're looking at generative AI,making this even more personal.

SPEAKER_00 (09:28):
We're just at the beginning.
By 2026, the expectation is GenAI will build lessons not just
based on what you you know, yourknowledge graph.

SPEAKER_02 (09:37):
But on what you love, your interest graph.

SPEAKER_00 (09:39):
Exactly.
So that eight-year-old who lovesbaseball stats, their entire
fraction lesson will bedynamically generated using
batting averages and ERAs.
It becomes instantly relevant.

SPEAKER_02 (09:50):
That's a huge leap, and the goal is to make this
accessible to everyone.

SPEAKER_00 (09:54):
The goal is to deliver the entire K curriculum
fully personalized on a devicethat costs less than$1,000 to
bring that 10x learning rate tothe entire world.
Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 (10:09):
Right now, this kind of personalized help is only for
the wealthy.

SPEAKER_00 (10:12):
It is.
A taught private tutor can cost$750 an hour.
And the data shows the academicgap between affluent and less
affluent kids in America is nowwider than the gap between white
and black kids at the end of JimCrow.

SPEAKER_02 (10:25):
That is a shocking statistic.

SPEAKER_00 (10:27):
It is.
And it's because wealth can buyyou this kind of high dosage
personalized remediation to fillin all those prerequisite gaps.

SPEAKER_02 (10:35):
So this is where AI could be a massive force for
equity.

SPEAKER_00 (10:38):
It's the greatest promise.
It has the potential to wipe outthat disparity.
If every child can have theequivalent of a$750 an hour
tutor on a cheap device, thenacademic success stops being an
accident of birth.

SPEAKER_02 (10:52):
It becomes a decision about effort.

SPEAKER_00 (10:53):
A decision about effort for everyone.

SPEAKER_02 (10:56):
That is a powerful mission.
So to sum this up, the sourcematerial is really clear.
Our current education system isflawed because it's built on
time, not mastery.

SPEAKER_00 (11:04):
Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 (11:05):
But AI and learning science now give us a real path
to a 10X improvement, makinghigh achievement something
that's possible for almosteveryone.

SPEAKER_00 (11:13):
Yeah, the mission is to spend the next two decades
scaling this, taking thattrillion dollars we already
spent and just rearranging it tobuild a truly great system for a
billion kids.
One where they leave eighthgrade with total mastery and,
you know, an actual love oflearning.

SPEAKER_02 (11:27):
And that leaves us with a final provocative thought
for you.
The current system sort ofimplies that your success is
predetermined by yourbackground, your parents, your
supposed IQ.
If this technology can reallyensure that 95% of kids master
the foundations by the timethey're 13, doesn't that
completely change the purpose ofschool?
If the what is covered in 26hours a year, doesn't school

(11:50):
become all about the how and thewhy, about character,
collaboration, and criticalthinking?
If the academic race has alreadywon, what are we as a society
going to do with all of thattime back?
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