The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Join the MUFG Global Markets Research Team for expert analysis of the week's most pressing topics impacting economies and the markets

Episodes

June 14, 2024 8 mins

Heightened political uncertainty in France has emerged as important driver of FX market performance over the past week. Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, about how election risks in France and the UK are impacting the outlook for the FX market alongside the latest policy updates from the BoJ, BoE and Fed.

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Last weekend’s EU elections marked the end of the bloc’s greenest parliament ever with the overall “shift to the right”, though centrist parties still retained the majority.

Whilst the post 2030 climate agenda could be weakened in ambition, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), believes that there is unlikely to be any major overhaul on sustainability, but rather there may be fresh emphasis ...

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This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, gets us caught up on what has been happening in global macro and markets, with a focus on recapping the May NFP jobs report, which he believes wasn’t as strong as the headlines suggested, and that it is another report that demonstrates there are clearly macro divergences forming in various parts of the labor force.

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With the rupiah falling to a four-year low, it's perhaps timely for us to re-assess our short-term outlook for the currency. We also delve into how the long-term appeal of the rupiah has improved, led by EV. 

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June 7, 2024 13 mins

The US jobs data was much stronger than expected today and Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, speaks to Shan Husain, Institutional FX Sales about the implications of the data for the dollar and ahead of the FOMC meeting next week.

Derek also discusses the possibility of the BoJ altering its policy on JGB purchases at the meeting next Fri...

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The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its 2024 iteration of its flagship World Energy Investment (WEI) report this week, with a wealth of insights into the latest investment trends across the global energy landscape that aims to support corporates and investors in assessing risks and opportunities across the energy ecosystem.

In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EM...

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Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Vice President from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss what to expect from next week’s BoC and ECB policy meetings. Will the FX market impact from the policy updates be overshadowed by next week’s NFP report?

Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

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The power grid – arguably the backbone of the global economy – is the backbone of the energy transition but also its main bottleneck. We are at a critical convergence of the demand ramp-up of an increasingly electrified economy – driven by the rise of electric vehicles, datacentres and artificial intelligence (AI) – and an aging power grid that requires significant upgrading (particularly in a world of more renewable but intermitte...

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Michael Wan, Senior Currency Analyst with Global Markets Research Asia, discuss three key things to watch in India - 1) the upcoming General Elections, 2) RBI policy on 7 June, and 3) the impact of larger than expected dividends from RBI

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This week Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA and International Securities talks to Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, currency analyst, about safe-havens in the FX market.

What determines safe-haven currencies and what other factors need to be considered in anticipating currency performance during a bout of risk-off? Derek argues that while the US dollar is the obvious safe-haven ch...

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The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has released its long-awaited final report on the guidelines on funds’ names using ESG or sustainability-related terms, which are set to significantly impact the ESG fund market.

In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), delves into the key elements of ESMA’s final report, contextualising their impact on corporates and ...

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May 17, 2024 7 mins

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Vice President from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss why the USD has been weakening in recent weeks and whether it is likely to extend further.

Will Biden’s decision to impose fresh tariffs on imports from China derail strengthening growth momentum outside of the US? 

Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF...

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With six months to go, the outcome of the US presidential elections – along with control of the Senate – is likely to have a profound impact across environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues.

Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), assesses the key policies that could change under a new administration and the reverberations that may transpire within the ESG ecosystem.

Disclaimer: www.mu...

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This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, recaps what he has learned from the various trips he has been on while visiting investors and how it compares to our house view. He also goes over his short-term views on inflation ahead of the all-important CPI report. In George’s view, just like the last NFP report captured some of the concerns that have been forming for quarters now (and s...

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From the best performing G10 currency last week, the yen has turned and is the worst performer this week. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Simon Mayes, Head of UK Ireland and Switzerland FX Corporate Sales about the shift in tone from BoJ Governor Ueda who turned a lot more hawkish with concerns increasing over yen weakness. Derek also discusses the potential for the BoE c...

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May 3, 2024 7 mins

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Andrea Hayward, Vice President of the Japanese Client Sales Group for EMEA in London, discuss the fallout from a volatile week for USD/JPY.

What have been the main drivers behind the sharp correction lower for USD/JPY?  

Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

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May 3, 2024 5 mins

EU parliamentary elections in June are fast approaching and the decibels of debate surrounding the Green Deal legislation are rising. Certain investors have suggested that a shift in political attention away from the Green Deal and that recent pushback and watering down of some regulation is negative for climate action in Europe.

Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), discusses this shift in ...

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This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, walks through what to expect at the May FOMC meeting. We believe that QT will be tapered while the Fed will start to acknowledge that real rates are too restrictive. Our base case is that Chair Powell will say tightening is working, but they are being mindful of the long and variable lags. Also, on the slightly more hawkish side, Chair Powell...

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After today’s BoJ policy meeting and the heavy yen selling, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, talks to Chris Jakubowski, Director – Institutional FX Sales, about the BoJ policy outlook ahead following the meeting and the fallout in the FX market with the yen hitting new lows.

Why has the MoF not yet intervened to halt yen selling? Tune ...

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Heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East have been an important driver of the FX market over the past week. Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, about how geopolitical risks are impacting MUFG’s outlook for the FX market and how the BoJ’s upcoming policy meeting could impact JPY performance in the week ahead.

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