George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, reviewed the economic backdrop and market sentiment heading into another critical week in the US. George made a comprehensive case that the jobs data will likely continue to soften with the unemployment rate notably moving much higher, maybe starting with the June NFP data release. George concludes by recapping his monthly report and noting the irony that uncertainty is lifting on the policy front in DC, yet the consumer is likely tapped out, arguing for the Fed to cut soon.
That said, George acknowledges everything has to go "perfect" for the Fed to cut in July. If the Fed doesn’t cut in July, George expects them to cut in September & argues the longer they wait, the more they will have to cut (which opens the possibility of a 50bp cut in September - 2024 Deja Vu).
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