February 4, 2025 • 33 mins
What if the political shifts from Trump's inauguration could reshape Latin America’s economic landscape?
Join me, Brian Samson, as I sit down with Luis Lozano, an expert on the region, to unravel these potential impacts. We dissect how Trump's policies might pressure Latin American countries, yet create opportunities for nations like Argentina. Mexico's unique position in the wake of tariffs and U.S. trade policies is analyzed, alongside the rise of nearshoring that could boost demand for diverse talents across the region.
Shifting gears, we spotlight the transformative wave of AI technology with a focus on Monterrey, Mexico's thriving software development scene. The episode explores how AI is redefining industry roles, especially for junior and mid-level professionals. We engage in a thoughtful discussion on the necessity of nurturing senior talent to harness AI’s full potential. Anticipating future trends, we delve into changes in immigration patterns and the evolving job market, emphasizing the critical need for continuous learning to stay ahead in an AI-driven world.
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Linkedin: Luis Lozano | LinkedIn
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
We'll see you next time.
(00:35):
Welcome everyone to theNearshore Cafe podcast.
I'm Brian Sampson, your host.
Brian Sampson, your host, andif you're interested in
perspective on what's going onin the US right now, we just had
(00:55):
an inauguration.
There is a lot to talk aboutthe political economic landscape
.
We are joined by Luis Lozano,who's been a guest before.
He's a strategist, knows allsorts of stuff about this.
We're going to get right intoit.
I just want to thank oursponsor, Plug Technologies
(01:17):
PLUGGtech great way to connecttalent from Latin America to US
companies.
Luis, great to see you again,Thanks for joining.
Speaker 2 (01:23):
Thank you, brian, for inviting me again.
I had a blast last time and Iknow that we will have one.
There is a lot of talk about, Ithink, happening and this is
great that it's happening rightnow and we have a lot to discuss
and, I think, a lot offorecasts, you know.
Speaker 1 (01:41):
That's right.
That's right.
Well, as you said's, it was abusy week.
Monday was the inauguration.
Trump is now in office.
Um, I think the most importantthing about this podcast if
you're a first-time listener iswe just try to tell the truth.
We try to be honest andauthentic.
Um.
(02:02):
So, uh, luis, like what is whatdoes that mean for people in
Latin America now that Trump isin office in the US?
Speaker 2 (02:13):
Yes, yeah, I believe that we can see a little bit of
what he did last time when hetook the presidency, but I will
say that he has already decidedwho.
Like Trump obviously decidedwho is going to go against like
what's the enemies?
That he's going to call it likethat, but I will say that it's
(02:36):
not a surprise.
I think he has been verytruthful to his words.
Whatever he has been saying,he's tried to do it.
Not all the time is possible.
So I will say that for LATAM, itmeans that we will have a lot
of pressure, and I will say thatall the countries in LATAM will
(02:59):
have a lot of pressure eitherto comply to what Trump wants,
because I think the, the andprobably we will get more into
that, but I think it's not thatspecifically he wants what he's
saying, but he's like I ampressuring you to get something
else right that I really like,and I mean this is business 101,
(03:20):
you know, like pushing thebuttons, where you get a lot of
your people, like pushing you tomake decisions.
So I think, for LATAM inparticular, it's going to be a
row for years.
It's not going to be as bad asa lot of people think.
Again, this is a prediction.
We don't know, nobody knows.
(03:42):
Prediction we don't know,nobody knows.
But I will say that, yeah, it'sgoing to have a lot of pressure
on the political side of allthe countries.
Speaker 1 (03:50):
You know, when you obviously look at Latin America,
it's a collection of a lot ofdifferent countries.
Do you think there will bewinners and losers, like, are
there countries that will comeout more ahead than than others?
Speaker 2 (04:05):
that, yeah, interesting uh stuff, because
this is where, again, whereforecasting comes to play.
I will say that last time, um,mexico came on top, even even
though we were like attackeddirectly, but that uh
specifically, I didn't really uh, uh impacted, was more like uh,
provide uh to um trump's umsupporters, um, the um like that
(04:30):
, showing that he is doing whathe said that he's going to do,
but really didn't impact thatmuch on mexico.
So I will say that, um, thecountries that are going to be,
uh, less likely to come on topare the countries that are not
going to be or are not currentlystrong enough to resist the
(04:50):
pressure and they are going justto break.
I mean just, for instance, yousee Panama, with this thing of
the Panama Canal and people islike going crazy there and
probably if you ever have aPanama person will know more,
but I mean you see what is inthe headlines.
(05:10):
So I will say that that that Idon't think specifically we, any
specific country is going tobenefit, but but I will say that
some are not going to benefitat all and going to hurt, you
know, because they are going toprobably where I will say that
if I need to go to one.
I will say that Argentina ismost likely to to to to be more,
(05:35):
to get more benefits, becauseit's very aligned and they
already say, like we are goingto follow us, you know.
Speaker 1 (05:42):
Yeah, yeah, you see Malay and Trump together and
they seem to, even if they'renot speaking the same language,
they're speaking the samelanguage.
Speaker 2 (05:52):
Yes, exactly that's correct.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
Let's take a look at Mexico for a second president.
Tell us about her policies andmaybe how that's impacting
positively or negatively.
Nearshoring yes.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
So I remember last time we talked a little bit of
these different laws that werelike in the works, and now it's
a reality for the different andnow it's a reality for the
different.
The idea is that we can have.
(06:31):
The concentration of power isdifferent right now.
What I will say is that it'sgoing.
It's not going to impact NewYork per se.
What's going to impact is theexpansion of some of the
different industries thatprobably Trump is going to aim
for.
For instance, I will say thatautomotive is going to be one
(06:54):
that happened last time, but atthe end of the day, it's like
they find a way to continueexploring Mexico.
So what I will say is that it'sgoing to demand more brainpower
in to make it work, to make itwork for the companies in the US
(07:15):
, than probably like a year ago.
And it's not because of shame.
I think it's more like becauseof what Trump could do with the
tariff impacts and everything.
So I will say that specifically.
Speaker 1 (07:29):
Yeah, I mean tariffs are interesting.
Canada is quite anxious rightnow, but I think oftentimes
tariffs circle back to what yousaid like Business 101,
oftentimes tariffs circle backto what you said like business
101.
You know, maybe you start atsome extreme position and then
(07:52):
you work your way back.
But I also think tariffs arereally aimed at antagonistic
countries like China.
So perhaps there has to be somealternative to China and that's
Latin America.
Mexico is the most maturemanufacturing country.
(08:13):
Do you see it that way?
Speaker 2 (08:15):
Yeah, that's why I mentioned that.
I didn't think that Trump isgoing to impact Mexico
specifically, because, eventhough we are in that list, the
reality is that we are in thatlist because, again, because of
the voters, but not reallybecause Trump wants to go
against us.
He wants to have more countriesin an enemy list, just because
(08:38):
that's how it is, and then he'sgoing to attack the actual
country.
Obviously China, that's the one.
And when you attack China, thatjust become we become an option
, a better option, right?
So I mean, if you see thenumbers I don't have in hand
(09:00):
because this is like a fluidconversation but if you see the
numbers on the issue, it's likea spike, it continues to spike,
and that also happened.
Remember, when we talk about thedollar, that part of what
happened, um.
So I think it's going to happenmore, uh, this in this next
four years, um, and I will saythat there are going to be some
um industries that are not goingto be impacted at all, like,
(09:21):
for instance, technology andthat is the core of what we talk
normally here is not going tobe impacted.
But I I am certain that, and weknow that nature is not only
technology, I mean it's just onepart.
There is nature in in all theindustries, so probably there is
going to be another that aregoing to be more impacted
because of the new policiesstarted.
(09:42):
But I don't think that tech ingeneral is going to to get that,
that the share of of pain.
But I don't think that tech ingeneral is going to get the
share of pain on that.
I don't think so.
Speaker 1 (09:50):
So maybe let's kind of think about all the there's
manufacturing, but let's talkabout non-manufacturing, which
is still a broad array.
Could be software development,but it could also be call center
or back office accountingoperations, administrative
assistant, virtual assistanttype work.
Are there specificnon-manufacturing industries
(10:17):
that you think will continue tothrive and maybe others that
will be stunted?
Speaker 2 (10:25):
Yes, I think.
Well, I will say that what'sgoing to impact more than the
actual tariffs and everything isgoing to be AI right now.
So I will say that if theindustry is stagnant or if a
type of work is stagnant, it'sgoing to be because of AI, not
(10:46):
because of what Trump is doing.
If you see that in a ladder,you will see that that new trend
, integration of the automations, are going to back more those
works, those jobs, than whatTrump is doing right now.
There are others that I amobviously not aware of
(11:06):
agriculture and all that.
I know that there is a lot oftariff war in that and that has
been for as long as I know, butI am not as familiar as to talk
about that specifically.
But probably there will be someinstances there that Trump is
going to use.
Speaker 1 (11:25):
Maybe let's just talk about emotions for a second.
If you're a software developerin Monterrey, Mexico, and you've
been working with US companiesfor the last couple of years,
are you more optimistic today orless optimistic?
Speaker 2 (11:44):
Yeah, I will say that I will be more optimistic than
before.
And it just comes back to thefact that we just have a soft
landing.
I don't know if that's alreadywhat happened or not, but it
seems like we have a softlanding.
I don't know if that's alreadywhat happened or not, but it
seems like we have a softlanding and we avoid to go into
(12:07):
a recession, you know.
So, when you come from thatpoint, it's going to be better,
regardless of what's happening.
Right, because two years ago,almost three years ago, there
was a lot of uh layoffs, therewas a lot of situations where
people uh lose their job.
So right now doesn't look likeit, you know.
(12:29):
So I will say that is going tobe.
We are in the in a brighterside.
Uh, I don't know what's going tohappen in two, two, and
probably we can talk about thatwhen that happens, but right now
it's better, also because let'sjust think for a minute how all
(12:52):
this uncertainty impacts and wedon't have it.
We know what's going to happenRight now.
We know what we can expect.
Sorry, we don't know what'sgoing to it.
We know what's going to happenRight now.
We know what we can expect.
We don't know what's going tohappen.
We know what we can expect fromone country to another, so that
brings certainty that we didn'thave last year, before the vote
(13:12):
, elections in the US and Mexico.
Speaker 1 (13:14):
So maybe circling back to like Latin America as a
whole, because if you're a UScompany, you've got all these
different options, you've gotoverseas Asia, you build
software at home, you can lookat nearshoring.
Then you also have AI.
Right, can you talk throughmaybe even the mind of like a US
(13:40):
software company within thosefour options and like we're
nearshoring ranks and and evenyou know how AI is being used
from a neshoring standpoint?
Speaker 2 (13:57):
Yes, okay, that's a pretty good one and I think it's
going to help the audience toknow a little bit more of what
they can expect and also morecontext on what happened in 2024
.
You know, like most of thelayoffs, if you analyze the
layoffs of 2024, the companies Iwill start there, 2024 will be
(14:22):
the companies I will start there.
They were not because they havethey needed to lay off, but
mainly because they wanted tochange some of the engineers or
people they have.
Like, they converted themanpower or the headcount into
more AI focus.
You know so, you will see thatthe headcount into more AI focus
.
You know so, you will see that.
So I will say that that, from aUS standpoint, I think what has
(14:50):
been happening and what's goingto continue happening is that
right now, I feel like all thecompanies have tried AI in one
way or another, so they knowwhat they can leverage right now
.
Obviously, ai is going tocontinue to evolve.
I don't know what level isgoing to happen, but I will say
that companies right now need toprepare, they need to create a
(15:13):
roadmap.
How can I use AI?
And I don't know if this isgood or bad, depending on the
site where you are on, but AI isgoing to reduce the need to
manpower.
Okay, so I will say that if I ama US company, I will continue
to look for senior folks andeven right now I will need more
(15:35):
those that mid-level seniorsoftware engineers or junior
software engineers.
I mean, we have seen that acouple of companies saying that
they are going to reduce theirmid-tier, but it's because of
that.
I will give you an example.
Obviously, I'm a recruiter, soI will tell you that some of the
tools that I am using, and evenif it's not like that advanced,
(15:56):
some of the tools that I amusing and even if it's not like
that advanced, for instance,what five recruiters could do
one year ago or two years ago,can be done by one senior
recruiter in half the time.
So it's like 10x.
We were now you remember thattime in the startup when
everybody was like, oh, I wantthe 10x engineer.
(16:18):
I think we are there right nowwith EI.
So I would say that that'swhat's going to impact.
It's going to impact on thejobs of the mid-level and junior
people and I think we need tothink as a community on how we
(16:38):
can continue to contribute tothe nurture of this talent
because eventually we are goingto run out of senior people.
This is going to last for 15years or 20 years, but as a
community we need a replacementrate.
So I will say that right now,the companies are not going to
(17:00):
care about that.
They are just going to focus ongetting their senior folks that
can use AI properly, because ifyou do that with a junior
person, I mean it's not going to.
There are some stories on theinternet where junior did the
wrong commit and then they arepaying a lot in AWS because, I
(17:21):
don't know, they have an applethat they didn't fix.
So I think, with that beingsaid, that's what, where AI is
coming, and and I thinkeverybody is saying and I agree
with that statement that you'renot going to be replaced by AI,
but somebody that is using AI.
And I will say that I thinkmiddle to junior are going to be
(17:46):
less prone to have access tothe top technologies or the hot
new technologies that they canlearn.
They will need to learn ontheir own so they can level up
until a certain point that theycan be put to work with an AI
(18:07):
agent.
I see that as the future ofhappening and I think it's
across the board, at least onany work that can be done in a
desk.
Speaker 1 (18:16):
Yeah, I've heard the same thing that AI is not
necessarily coming for your jobs.
A senior person leveraging AIis going to beat you.
Right, and I like the equationthat you laid out.
Maybe we can do some publicmath here and even think about a
(18:37):
senior developer in the Statesthat's using AI.
Let's just say they work for atech company, so they're well
compensated.
Maybe the cost the meeting costis $20,000 a month, right.
You add some AI tools couple$1,000, right, the cost for a
(18:59):
senior engineer in Latin Americais maybe one third of that,
right?
So now you're getting like kindof 3x, you know, like a 3x
return of a 10x return in thefirst place, right?
So, yeah, does that make sense?
Speaker 2 (19:18):
Yeah, yeah, no, right .
So, yeah, yeah, does that makesense?
Yeah, yeah, no, um, I thinkthat's where nearsure is coming
to play again for the seniorsenior, um, senior folks, uh,
and I think that's pretty muchnormal when, when a company in
the us come to latin america,they is is.
I will say that it's not common.
I mean, you have moreexperience than me, probably you
(19:40):
can correct me if I'm wrong inthat regard, but I will say that
it's not normal to go forjunior right talent.
You go and hire the seniorfolks first and then you build a
team around them, you know.
So I will say that, yeah, that'strue, you will have like a lot
of benefit if you use itcorrectly.
(20:00):
But coming a little bit back tothe US, I think right now, at
least in the next two years,there is going to be opportunity
for US I will talk specificallyin engineering to regain some
of these jobs that were to nearshore or other countries, just
(20:22):
because it's most likely thatthey are going to be able to use
AI, because of the premium AItools, because it's more
expensive, and we have thatright now.
Right, we have this level of AIwhere it's really expensive for
others that are outside of theUS and they can afford that, but
(20:43):
in the US it's like, yeah,that's another tool that I have
for my work.
Speaker 1 (20:46):
Yeah, because then it's just a matter of like best
alternative.
Do I spend $10,000 on amid-level developer or, you know
, $2,000 on the tools that wouldreplace them?
Speaker 2 (20:59):
And I think that's where the AI companies are
coming from.
You know, like this is a valuebase where I am replacing, and
another important part is thatAI and I would say AI, but
normally I would say that wecall it AI, but it's any
(21:23):
repetitive task that can be doneby an agent that you don't need
to do you know, like this is, Iwould say that that's where
normally, when I talk about AI,that's what I meant.
Coding, like sourcing forrecruiters, no, so I would say
that's where it comes from.
So I would say that the AIcompanies know that they can do
(21:49):
it and they will.
This is an opportunity forthose companies to charge more
because they know the value thatthey will bring.
And they make mistakes, but themistakes come from the wrong
configuration or the wrongprompt that you put to the
system, and not the system perse.
It could happen, but I haven'tseen it happening yet.
(22:12):
At least from the tool that Ihave been using, there hasn't
been an error that didn't comeback to me.
Speaker 1 (22:20):
I think even for us, software engineer aside, how do
we source leads?
And I get all these offers.
Normally an SDR for us in theUS is maybe $5,000 a month.
Near shore it's $3,500.
(22:42):
And then I get these offers for$1,000 a month.
You know we'll do it will beall AI generated and you know
we've tried a few things andlike it's cheaper, but it hasn't
been impactful.
So I think that's kind of wherewe are with AI is.
There's a lot of interestingtools that are still unproven.
Speaker 2 (23:07):
Yes, yeah, I think that's what I meant exactly when
I said that the errors comes toyou.
These tools probably don't haveyet or not all have all the
capability to execute a supercomplex prompt.
(23:27):
Right, that's the main thing.
But I will say that where I seeAI taking over in the next two
years is not in this complextask, but in the easy task that
can be the manual task.
That are repetitive tasks.
I mean, that's a no brainer.
You can use AI tools and youare not.
(23:51):
You just need to check theagent once per day or a couple
of times per week and that'sabout it, right?
Even with a junior resource,you will need to spend more time
than that.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
I wanted to also just get into return to office.
Right, that could have a hugeimpact on the nearshoring world,
because nearshoring acceleratedwhen everyone was comfortable
with remote work and it's like,okay, what's the difference if
(24:25):
they're in Kansas City or MexicoCity, right.
But now, if they all have to bein the office, what does that
mean, luis?
Like, does that make anybodynervous in Latin America?
Or is this treated differently?
You know what do you think?
Speaker 2 (24:40):
Based on what I saw before pandemic, when we see
this spike of digital companiesand go to office and sorry, home
office, I think we are going toretake that path.
So we probably are going to getback to before 2020, where you
(25:04):
have these companies thatprovide the opportunity to work
remote to get the best talent,and the ones that doesn't need
to provide that benefit and theywant to to to be on the, on the
office.
You know, um and I, and I thinkit'll come.
It comes back also to um, the,the person that is leading that
(25:27):
company.
But I will say that you willsee and we will see more and
more people coming back tooffice.
Uh, hybrid, I think, is a is thewinner in this.
Nobody likes yeah, because it'slike okay, two hour, two, two
days in the, the in the office,three days home office, um.
(25:49):
So I think that's obviouslythat's the middle ground for
most of the employees, not notmiddle ground for most of the
employees Not all, but most ofthe employees would like to be
at home and most of theemployers would like people to
be in the office.
So I will say that the middleground obviously is hybrid and I
will say that if you go back to2018, 2019, there was hybrid
(26:14):
was happening but nobody wastaking, nobody calling like
hybrid.
It was like I am in the officeand then I I am in my home one
Wednesday a week, right.
So yeah, I think remoteopportunities are going to be
for for very for the, for thebest talent down there.
(26:37):
So the 1% of the 5% I would saythat the top 5% of down 10%
probably of each country willstill have options, plenty of
options for remote work, but theother 90% of the population is
going to be hybrid or in office.
Speaker 1 (26:57):
A topic that has been on the political radar a lot
with Trump during this campaignand now is immigration.
But you slice and dice.
There's a lot of pieces of this, you know.
There's illegal immigration,there's legal immigration,
there's immigration of peoplethat work in tech, there's
(27:21):
immigration of people that aredoing manual labor, you know,
and all sorts of things inbetween.
What does it mean, you know,for immigration?
Does it have any impact?
You know, like, uh, are morejobs being near short because of
(27:41):
that?
Or you know, uh, I'm sure you,you, there's like a lot of
pieces we can go here and I Idon't want to over ask the
question, I would just love tohear your thoughts louise yes,
um, if we focus, obviously, inthe immigration to the US, I
will say that I think, at leastfor the first year of Trump
(28:03):
office, immigration is going toget impact.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
Probably, after the dust settles, we will see
something similar to what wehave.
That's again my prediction.
We will see something similarto what we have.
That's again my prediction,because that's similar to what
happened last time.
We have a lot of restrictionsat the beginning, remember, and
then the restrictions were notin the picture anymore.
So I already did that.
(28:32):
So it's cool.
I couldn't no worries, so let'smove forward.
So I think it's so.
It's cool.
I couldn't no worries, so let'sgo forward.
So I think it's going to besimilar.
But Normally the benefit of thefail or the lack of immigration
in the US is either I think inthis case, previously I would
(28:54):
say that it was Canada, butCanada right now is not in a
pretty good place I would say so, probably we will see more of
that in Mexico City, becausethere are a lot of even without
that.
We saw a lot of US folks goingto Mexico City, right, mexico
City, right.
So I will say that there isgoing to be more opportunity for
(29:17):
other countries, and obviouslyTrump's target countries, to,
instead of going to the US,coming to Mexico.
So I will say that Mexico isthe option.
There are other good optionsColombia, obviously, argentina
but it's pretty.
I will say that you stay inMexico for a couple of years and
while that this is in Mexicofor a couple of years, and while
(29:39):
this is in the past, they canapply again to go to the US.
So I think it makes sense andright now we don't know what's
going to happen with Canada interms of politics yet, so I
wouldn't say that it's easierfor somebody to come to Mexico
right now and not risking goingto Canada if you can go to the
(29:59):
US.
Speaker 1 (30:00):
We talked a lot about AI today, Luis.
Think about tech as a whole.
Are there certain jobs or areasthat you think will do really
well in the next two years andones that might be left behind?
Speaker 2 (30:17):
Yeah, I think there is a lot of opportunity, and I
think I wrote a post about thatbefore I talked to you last year
, and I think the prediction iscoming pretty similar to what I
said, and what I said and Icontinue to say the same thing
is that anything that isrepetitive, obviously, is going
(30:40):
to be removed.
You will need to be morestrategic and you will need to
know more how to use AI.
Okay, so, with that being said,I think the roles per se are
going to continue.
At least 80% of the roles aregoing to continue to be the same
(31:02):
, but the other 20 are goingprobably to disappear in the
next five years, and those jobsare where there were a lot of
manual input, there is a lot ofprone to error, and that is
again low, I would say low leveljobs are the ones that are
(31:25):
going to be hurt the most withthe AI.
Speaker 1 (31:29):
Luis, this has been fantastic, as always, you always
bring the heat, bring goodinsights.
As always, you always bring theheat, bring good insights.
Anything we didn't talk about,that you wanted to share
thoughts, predictions aboutanything else we didn't touch on
.
Speaker 2 (31:47):
I would like to mention that I like the AI a lot
.
We remember in 2022, I think itwas, I don't remember if it was
2022, but we have, like, thesetwo paths right Either go to the
metaverse or go to the AI, andI mean we are in the AI future,
(32:12):
or timeline, as they call it.
So I think it's going to bevery interesting what's going to
happen.
Last year, for everybody islike oh, we didn't know that AI
could do this.
You know that this could besomething that could help us,
but, as you mentioned, ai is notyet there to replace any of the
(32:33):
work.
So I will say that we need toprepare individually so we can
take advantage of the AI beforeAI take advantage of us, you
know.
So that's what I would like toadd.
Speaker 1 (32:49):
Good, good, good insight.
Yeah, I think we all have seenTerminator 2.
Speaker 2 (32:54):
Yes, exactly, and we don't want to be in that part.
So I always say thank you tothe chat GPT bot, you know, and
good morning.
But yeah, no, I will say thatthat we need to prepare, and the
faster that you learn thesetools is going to help in the
career.
(33:14):
That's the advice I would liketo send over to the audience
that prepare, because with thesethings you don't know when
you're going to get replaced,but you know that it's going to
happen eventually if you are notprepared.
Speaker 1 (33:29):
Great insight.
Luis Luis Lozano, thank you somuch for being here.
You were listening to theNearshore Cafe podcast sponsored
by Plug Technologies.
Great way to connect talentfrom Latin America to growing US
companies.
Thanks again for listening.
We'll see you next time on theNearshore Cafe podcast.
We'll see you next time.
(00:35):
Welcome everyone to theNearshore Cafe podcast.
I'm Brian Sampson, your host.
Brian Sampson, your host, andif you're interested in
perspective on what's going onin the US right now, we just had
(00:55):
an inauguration.
There is a lot to talk aboutthe political economic landscape
.
We are joined by Luis Lozano,who's been a guest before.
He's a strategist, knows allsorts of stuff about this.
We're going to get right intoit.
I just want to thank oursponsor, Plug Technologies
(01:17):
PLUGGtech great way to connecttalent from Latin America to US
companies.
Luis, great to see you again,Thanks for joining.
Speaker 2 (01:23):
Thank you, brian, for inviting me again.
I had a blast last time and Iknow that we will have one.
There is a lot of talk about, Ithink, happening and this is
great that it's happening rightnow and we have a lot to discuss
and, I think, a lot offorecasts, you know.
Speaker 1 (01:41):
That's right.
That's right.
Well, as you said's, it was abusy week.
Monday was the inauguration.
Trump is now in office.
Um, I think the most importantthing about this podcast if
you're a first-time listener iswe just try to tell the truth.
We try to be honest andauthentic.
Um.
(02:02):
So, uh, luis, like what is whatdoes that mean for people in
Latin America now that Trump isin office in the US?
Speaker 2 (02:13):
Yes, yeah, I believe that we can see a little bit of
what he did last time when hetook the presidency, but I will
say that he has already decidedwho.
Like Trump obviously decidedwho is going to go against like
what's the enemies?
That he's going to call it likethat, but I will say that it's
(02:36):
not a surprise.
I think he has been verytruthful to his words.
Whatever he has been saying,he's tried to do it.
Not all the time is possible.
So I will say that for LATAM, itmeans that we will have a lot
of pressure, and I will say thatall the countries in LATAM will
(02:59):
have a lot of pressure eitherto comply to what Trump wants,
because I think the, the andprobably we will get more into
that, but I think it's not thatspecifically he wants what he's
saying, but he's like I ampressuring you to get something
else right that I really like,and I mean this is business 101,
(03:20):
you know, like pushing thebuttons, where you get a lot of
your people, like pushing you tomake decisions.
So I think, for LATAM inparticular, it's going to be a
row for years.
It's not going to be as bad asa lot of people think.
Again, this is a prediction.
We don't know, nobody knows.
(03:42):
Prediction we don't know,nobody knows.
But I will say that, yeah, it'sgoing to have a lot of pressure
on the political side of allthe countries.
Speaker 1 (03:50):
You know, when you obviously look at Latin America,
it's a collection of a lot ofdifferent countries.
Do you think there will bewinners and losers, like, are
there countries that will comeout more ahead than than others?
Speaker 2 (04:05):
that, yeah, interesting uh stuff, because
this is where, again, whereforecasting comes to play.
I will say that last time, um,mexico came on top, even even
though we were like attackeddirectly, but that uh
specifically, I didn't really uh, uh impacted, was more like uh,
provide uh to um trump's umsupporters, um, the um like that
(04:30):
, showing that he is doing whathe said that he's going to do,
but really didn't impact thatmuch on mexico.
So I will say that, um, thecountries that are going to be,
uh, less likely to come on topare the countries that are not
going to be or are not currentlystrong enough to resist the
(04:50):
pressure and they are going justto break.
I mean just, for instance, yousee Panama, with this thing of
the Panama Canal and people islike going crazy there and
probably if you ever have aPanama person will know more,
but I mean you see what is inthe headlines.
(05:10):
So I will say that that that Idon't think specifically we, any
specific country is going tobenefit, but but I will say that
some are not going to benefitat all and going to hurt, you
know, because they are going toprobably where I will say that
if I need to go to one.
I will say that Argentina ismost likely to to to to be more,
(05:35):
to get more benefits, becauseit's very aligned and they
already say, like we are goingto follow us, you know.
Speaker 1 (05:42):
Yeah, yeah, you see Malay and Trump together and
they seem to, even if they'renot speaking the same language,
they're speaking the samelanguage.
Speaker 2 (05:52):
Yes, exactly that's correct.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
Let's take a look at Mexico for a second president.
Tell us about her policies andmaybe how that's impacting
positively or negatively.
Nearshoring yes.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
So I remember last time we talked a little bit of
these different laws that werelike in the works, and now it's
a reality for the different andnow it's a reality for the
different.
The idea is that we can have.
(06:31):
The concentration of power isdifferent right now.
What I will say is that it'sgoing.
It's not going to impact NewYork per se.
What's going to impact is theexpansion of some of the
different industries thatprobably Trump is going to aim
for.
For instance, I will say thatautomotive is going to be one
(06:54):
that happened last time, but atthe end of the day, it's like
they find a way to continueexploring Mexico.
So what I will say is that it'sgoing to demand more brainpower
in to make it work, to make itwork for the companies in the US
(07:15):
, than probably like a year ago.
And it's not because of shame.
I think it's more like becauseof what Trump could do with the
tariff impacts and everything.
So I will say that specifically.
Speaker 1 (07:29):
Yeah, I mean tariffs are interesting.
Canada is quite anxious rightnow, but I think oftentimes
tariffs circle back to what yousaid like Business 101,
oftentimes tariffs circle backto what you said like business
101.
You know, maybe you start atsome extreme position and then
(07:52):
you work your way back.
But I also think tariffs arereally aimed at antagonistic
countries like China.
So perhaps there has to be somealternative to China and that's
Latin America.
Mexico is the most maturemanufacturing country.
(08:13):
Do you see it that way?
Speaker 2 (08:15):
Yeah, that's why I mentioned that.
I didn't think that Trump isgoing to impact Mexico
specifically, because, eventhough we are in that list, the
reality is that we are in thatlist because, again, because of
the voters, but not reallybecause Trump wants to go
against us.
He wants to have more countriesin an enemy list, just because
(08:38):
that's how it is, and then he'sgoing to attack the actual
country.
Obviously China, that's the one.
And when you attack China, thatjust become we become an option
, a better option, right?
So I mean, if you see thenumbers I don't have in hand
(09:00):
because this is like a fluidconversation but if you see the
numbers on the issue, it's likea spike, it continues to spike,
and that also happened.
Remember, when we talk about thedollar, that part of what
happened, um.
So I think it's going to happenmore, uh, this in this next
four years, um, and I will saythat there are going to be some
um industries that are not goingto be impacted at all, like,
(09:21):
for instance, technology andthat is the core of what we talk
normally here is not going tobe impacted.
But I I am certain that, and weknow that nature is not only
technology, I mean it's just onepart.
There is nature in in all theindustries, so probably there is
going to be another that aregoing to be more impacted
because of the new policiesstarted.
(09:42):
But I don't think that tech ingeneral is going to to get that,
that the share of of pain.
But I don't think that tech ingeneral is going to get the
share of pain on that.
I don't think so.
Speaker 1 (09:50):
So maybe let's kind of think about all the there's
manufacturing, but let's talkabout non-manufacturing, which
is still a broad array.
Could be software development,but it could also be call center
or back office accountingoperations, administrative
assistant, virtual assistanttype work.
Are there specificnon-manufacturing industries
(10:17):
that you think will continue tothrive and maybe others that
will be stunted?
Speaker 2 (10:25):
Yes, I think.
Well, I will say that what'sgoing to impact more than the
actual tariffs and everything isgoing to be AI right now.
So I will say that if theindustry is stagnant or if a
type of work is stagnant, it'sgoing to be because of AI, not
(10:46):
because of what Trump is doing.
If you see that in a ladder,you will see that that new trend
, integration of the automations, are going to back more those
works, those jobs, than whatTrump is doing right now.
There are others that I amobviously not aware of
(11:06):
agriculture and all that.
I know that there is a lot oftariff war in that and that has
been for as long as I know, butI am not as familiar as to talk
about that specifically.
But probably there will be someinstances there that Trump is
going to use.
Speaker 1 (11:25):
Maybe let's just talk about emotions for a second.
If you're a software developerin Monterrey, Mexico, and you've
been working with US companiesfor the last couple of years,
are you more optimistic today orless optimistic?
Speaker 2 (11:44):
Yeah, I will say that I will be more optimistic than
before.
And it just comes back to thefact that we just have a soft
landing.
I don't know if that's alreadywhat happened or not, but it
seems like we have a softlanding.
I don't know if that's alreadywhat happened or not, but it
seems like we have a softlanding and we avoid to go into
(12:07):
a recession, you know.
So, when you come from thatpoint, it's going to be better,
regardless of what's happening.
Right, because two years ago,almost three years ago, there
was a lot of uh layoffs, therewas a lot of situations where
people uh lose their job.
So right now doesn't look likeit, you know.
(12:29):
So I will say that is going tobe.
We are in the in a brighterside.
Uh, I don't know what's going tohappen in two, two, and
probably we can talk about thatwhen that happens, but right now
it's better, also because let'sjust think for a minute how all
(12:52):
this uncertainty impacts and wedon't have it.
We know what's going to happenRight now.
We know what we can expect.
Sorry, we don't know what'sgoing to it.
We know what's going to happenRight now.
We know what we can expect.
We don't know what's going tohappen.
We know what we can expect fromone country to another, so that
brings certainty that we didn'thave last year, before the vote
(13:12):
, elections in the US and Mexico.
Speaker 1 (13:14):
So maybe circling back to like Latin America as a
whole, because if you're a UScompany, you've got all these
different options, you've gotoverseas Asia, you build
software at home, you can lookat nearshoring.
Then you also have AI.
Right, can you talk throughmaybe even the mind of like a US
(13:40):
software company within thosefour options and like we're
nearshoring ranks and and evenyou know how AI is being used
from a neshoring standpoint?
Speaker 2 (13:57):
Yes, okay, that's a pretty good one and I think it's
going to help the audience toknow a little bit more of what
they can expect and also morecontext on what happened in 2024
.
You know, like most of thelayoffs, if you analyze the
layoffs of 2024, the companies Iwill start there, 2024 will be
(14:22):
the companies I will start there.
They were not because they havethey needed to lay off, but
mainly because they wanted tochange some of the engineers or
people they have.
Like, they converted themanpower or the headcount into
more AI focus.
You know so, you will see thatthe headcount into more AI focus
.
You know so, you will see that.
So I will say that that, from aUS standpoint, I think what has
(14:50):
been happening and what's goingto continue happening is that
right now, I feel like all thecompanies have tried AI in one
way or another, so they knowwhat they can leverage right now
.
Obviously, ai is going tocontinue to evolve.
I don't know what level isgoing to happen, but I will say
that companies right now need toprepare, they need to create a
(15:13):
roadmap.
How can I use AI?
And I don't know if this isgood or bad, depending on the
site where you are on, but AI isgoing to reduce the need to
manpower.
Okay, so I will say that if I ama US company, I will continue
to look for senior folks andeven right now I will need more
(15:35):
those that mid-level seniorsoftware engineers or junior
software engineers.
I mean, we have seen that acouple of companies saying that
they are going to reduce theirmid-tier, but it's because of
that.
I will give you an example.
Obviously, I'm a recruiter, soI will tell you that some of the
tools that I am using, and evenif it's not like that advanced,
(15:56):
some of the tools that I amusing and even if it's not like
that advanced, for instance,what five recruiters could do
one year ago or two years ago,can be done by one senior
recruiter in half the time.
So it's like 10x.
We were now you remember thattime in the startup when
everybody was like, oh, I wantthe 10x engineer.
(16:18):
I think we are there right nowwith EI.
So I would say that that'swhat's going to impact.
It's going to impact on thejobs of the mid-level and junior
people and I think we need tothink as a community on how we
(16:38):
can continue to contribute tothe nurture of this talent
because eventually we are goingto run out of senior people.
This is going to last for 15years or 20 years, but as a
community we need a replacementrate.
So I will say that right now,the companies are not going to
(17:00):
care about that.
They are just going to focus ongetting their senior folks that
can use AI properly, because ifyou do that with a junior
person, I mean it's not going to.
There are some stories on theinternet where junior did the
wrong commit and then they arepaying a lot in AWS because, I
(17:21):
don't know, they have an applethat they didn't fix.
So I think, with that beingsaid, that's what, where AI is
coming, and and I thinkeverybody is saying and I agree
with that statement that you'renot going to be replaced by AI,
but somebody that is using AI.
And I will say that I thinkmiddle to junior are going to be
(17:46):
less prone to have access tothe top technologies or the hot
new technologies that they canlearn.
They will need to learn ontheir own so they can level up
until a certain point that theycan be put to work with an AI
(18:07):
agent.
I see that as the future ofhappening and I think it's
across the board, at least onany work that can be done in a
desk.
Speaker 1 (18:16):
Yeah, I've heard the same thing that AI is not
necessarily coming for your jobs.
A senior person leveraging AIis going to beat you.
Right, and I like the equationthat you laid out.
Maybe we can do some publicmath here and even think about a
(18:37):
senior developer in the Statesthat's using AI.
Let's just say they work for atech company, so they're well
compensated.
Maybe the cost the meeting costis $20,000 a month, right.
You add some AI tools couple$1,000, right, the cost for a
(18:59):
senior engineer in Latin Americais maybe one third of that,
right?
So now you're getting like kindof 3x, you know, like a 3x
return of a 10x return in thefirst place, right?
So, yeah, does that make sense?
Speaker 2 (19:18):
Yeah, yeah, no, right .
So, yeah, yeah, does that makesense?
Yeah, yeah, no, um, I thinkthat's where nearsure is coming
to play again for the seniorsenior, um, senior folks, uh,
and I think that's pretty muchnormal when, when a company in
the us come to latin america,they is is.
I will say that it's not common.
I mean, you have moreexperience than me, probably you
(19:40):
can correct me if I'm wrong inthat regard, but I will say that
it's not normal to go forjunior right talent.
You go and hire the seniorfolks first and then you build a
team around them, you know.
So I will say that, yeah, that'strue, you will have like a lot
of benefit if you use itcorrectly.
(20:00):
But coming a little bit back tothe US, I think right now, at
least in the next two years,there is going to be opportunity
for US I will talk specificallyin engineering to regain some
of these jobs that were to nearshore or other countries, just
(20:22):
because it's most likely thatthey are going to be able to use
AI, because of the premium AItools, because it's more
expensive, and we have thatright now.
Right, we have this level of AIwhere it's really expensive for
others that are outside of theUS and they can afford that, but
(20:43):
in the US it's like, yeah,that's another tool that I have
for my work.
Speaker 1 (20:46):
Yeah, because then it's just a matter of like best
alternative.
Do I spend $10,000 on amid-level developer or, you know
, $2,000 on the tools that wouldreplace them?
Speaker 2 (20:59):
And I think that's where the AI companies are
coming from.
You know, like this is a valuebase where I am replacing, and
another important part is thatAI and I would say AI, but
normally I would say that wecall it AI, but it's any
(21:23):
repetitive task that can be doneby an agent that you don't need
to do you know, like this is, Iwould say that that's where
normally, when I talk about AI,that's what I meant.
Coding, like sourcing forrecruiters, no, so I would say
that's where it comes from.
So I would say that the AIcompanies know that they can do
(21:49):
it and they will.
This is an opportunity forthose companies to charge more
because they know the value thatthey will bring.
And they make mistakes, but themistakes come from the wrong
configuration or the wrongprompt that you put to the
system, and not the system perse.
It could happen, but I haven'tseen it happening yet.
(22:12):
At least from the tool that Ihave been using, there hasn't
been an error that didn't comeback to me.
Speaker 1 (22:20):
I think even for us, software engineer aside, how do
we source leads?
And I get all these offers.
Normally an SDR for us in theUS is maybe $5,000 a month.
Near shore it's $3,500.
(22:42):
And then I get these offers for$1,000 a month.
You know we'll do it will beall AI generated and you know
we've tried a few things andlike it's cheaper, but it hasn't
been impactful.
So I think that's kind of wherewe are with AI is.
There's a lot of interestingtools that are still unproven.
Speaker 2 (23:07):
Yes, yeah, I think that's what I meant exactly when
I said that the errors comes toyou.
These tools probably don't haveyet or not all have all the
capability to execute a supercomplex prompt.
(23:27):
Right, that's the main thing.
But I will say that where I seeAI taking over in the next two
years is not in this complextask, but in the easy task that
can be the manual task.
That are repetitive tasks.
I mean, that's a no brainer.
You can use AI tools and youare not.
(23:51):
You just need to check theagent once per day or a couple
of times per week and that'sabout it, right?
Even with a junior resource,you will need to spend more time
than that.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
I wanted to also just get into return to office.
Right, that could have a hugeimpact on the nearshoring world,
because nearshoring acceleratedwhen everyone was comfortable
with remote work and it's like,okay, what's the difference if
(24:25):
they're in Kansas City or MexicoCity, right.
But now, if they all have to bein the office, what does that
mean, luis?
Like, does that make anybodynervous in Latin America?
Or is this treated differently?
You know what do you think?
Speaker 2 (24:40):
Based on what I saw before pandemic, when we see
this spike of digital companiesand go to office and sorry, home
office, I think we are going toretake that path.
So we probably are going to getback to before 2020, where you
(25:04):
have these companies thatprovide the opportunity to work
remote to get the best talent,and the ones that doesn't need
to provide that benefit and theywant to to to be on the, on the
office.
You know, um and I, and I thinkit'll come.
It comes back also to um, the,the person that is leading that
(25:27):
company.
But I will say that you willsee and we will see more and
more people coming back tooffice.
Uh, hybrid, I think, is a is thewinner in this.
Nobody likes yeah, because it'slike okay, two hour, two, two
days in the, the in the office,three days home office, um.
(25:49):
So I think that's obviouslythat's the middle ground for
most of the employees, not notmiddle ground for most of the
employees Not all, but most ofthe employees would like to be
at home and most of theemployers would like people to
be in the office.
So I will say that the middleground obviously is hybrid and I
will say that if you go back to2018, 2019, there was hybrid
(26:14):
was happening but nobody wastaking, nobody calling like
hybrid.
It was like I am in the officeand then I I am in my home one
Wednesday a week, right.
So yeah, I think remoteopportunities are going to be
for for very for the, for thebest talent down there.
(26:37):
So the 1% of the 5% I would saythat the top 5% of down 10%
probably of each country willstill have options, plenty of
options for remote work, but theother 90% of the population is
going to be hybrid or in office.
Speaker 1 (26:57):
A topic that has been on the political radar a lot
with Trump during this campaignand now is immigration.
But you slice and dice.
There's a lot of pieces of this, you know.
There's illegal immigration,there's legal immigration,
there's immigration of peoplethat work in tech, there's
(27:21):
immigration of people that aredoing manual labor, you know,
and all sorts of things inbetween.
What does it mean, you know,for immigration?
Does it have any impact?
You know, like, uh, are morejobs being near short because of
(27:41):
that?
Or you know, uh, I'm sure you,you, there's like a lot of
pieces we can go here and I Idon't want to over ask the
question, I would just love tohear your thoughts louise yes,
um, if we focus, obviously, inthe immigration to the US, I
will say that I think, at leastfor the first year of Trump
(28:03):
office, immigration is going toget impact.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
Probably, after the dust settles, we will see
something similar to what wehave.
That's again my prediction.
We will see something similarto what we have.
That's again my prediction,because that's similar to what
happened last time.
We have a lot of restrictionsat the beginning, remember, and
then the restrictions were notin the picture anymore.
So I already did that.
(28:32):
So it's cool.
I couldn't no worries, so let'smove forward.
So I think it's so.
It's cool.
I couldn't no worries, so let'sgo forward.
So I think it's going to besimilar.
But Normally the benefit of thefail or the lack of immigration
in the US is either I think inthis case, previously I would
(28:54):
say that it was Canada, butCanada right now is not in a
pretty good place I would say so, probably we will see more of
that in Mexico City, becausethere are a lot of even without
that.
We saw a lot of US folks goingto Mexico City, right, mexico
City, right.
So I will say that there isgoing to be more opportunity for
(29:17):
other countries, and obviouslyTrump's target countries, to,
instead of going to the US,coming to Mexico.
So I will say that Mexico isthe option.
There are other good optionsColombia, obviously, argentina
but it's pretty.
I will say that you stay inMexico for a couple of years and
while that this is in Mexicofor a couple of years, and while
(29:39):
this is in the past, they canapply again to go to the US.
So I think it makes sense andright now we don't know what's
going to happen with Canada interms of politics yet, so I
wouldn't say that it's easierfor somebody to come to Mexico
right now and not risking goingto Canada if you can go to the
(29:59):
US.
Speaker 1 (30:00):
We talked a lot about AI today, Luis.
Think about tech as a whole.
Are there certain jobs or areasthat you think will do really
well in the next two years andones that might be left behind?
Speaker 2 (30:17):
Yeah, I think there is a lot of opportunity, and I
think I wrote a post about thatbefore I talked to you last year
, and I think the prediction iscoming pretty similar to what I
said, and what I said and Icontinue to say the same thing
is that anything that isrepetitive, obviously, is going
(30:40):
to be removed.
You will need to be morestrategic and you will need to
know more how to use AI.
Okay, so, with that being said,I think the roles per se are
going to continue.
At least 80% of the roles aregoing to continue to be the same
(31:02):
, but the other 20 are goingprobably to disappear in the
next five years, and those jobsare where there were a lot of
manual input, there is a lot ofprone to error, and that is
again low, I would say low leveljobs are the ones that are
(31:25):
going to be hurt the most withthe AI.
Speaker 1 (31:29):
Luis, this has been fantastic, as always, you always
bring the heat, bring goodinsights.
As always, you always bring theheat, bring good insights.
Anything we didn't talk about,that you wanted to share
thoughts, predictions aboutanything else we didn't touch on
.
Speaker 2 (31:47):
I would like to mention that I like the AI a lot
.
We remember in 2022, I think itwas, I don't remember if it was
2022, but we have, like, thesetwo paths right Either go to the
metaverse or go to the AI, andI mean we are in the AI future,
(32:12):
or timeline, as they call it.
So I think it's going to bevery interesting what's going to
happen.
Last year, for everybody islike oh, we didn't know that AI
could do this.
You know that this could besomething that could help us,
but, as you mentioned, ai is notyet there to replace any of the
(32:33):
work.
So I will say that we need toprepare individually so we can
take advantage of the AI beforeAI take advantage of us, you
know.
So that's what I would like toadd.
Speaker 1 (32:49):
Good, good, good insight.
Yeah, I think we all have seenTerminator 2.
Speaker 2 (32:54):
Yes, exactly, and we don't want to be in that part.
So I always say thank you tothe chat GPT bot, you know, and
good morning.
But yeah, no, I will say thatthat we need to prepare, and the
faster that you learn thesetools is going to help in the
career.
(33:14):
That's the advice I would liketo send over to the audience
that prepare, because with thesethings you don't know when
you're going to get replaced,but you know that it's going to
happen eventually if you are notprepared.
Speaker 1 (33:29):
Great insight.
Luis Luis Lozano, thank you somuch for being here.
You were listening to theNearshore Cafe podcast sponsored
by Plug Technologies.
Great way to connect talentfrom Latin America to growing US
companies.
Thanks again for listening.
We'll see you next time on theNearshore Cafe podcast.
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