AI, Chips, and Cloud: Kevin Xu on Where China’s Tech is Really Headed

In this episode of The Negotiation, host Todd Embley sits down with Kevin Xu, founder of the bilingual newsletter Interconnected, which offers sharp analysis on the intersection of technology, investing, and geopolitics between the United States and China. Kevin has become one of the most thoughtful and trusted voices interpreting Chinese tech trends.

Together, they explore the evolving AI landscape in China, examining how players like DeepSeek and Alibaba are shaping the race, how export controls are impacting development, and why Kevin believes 2025 could be the year of the “AI RIF.” They also unpack China’s open-source culture, cloud strategy, and what Western analysts continue to get wrong about China’s innovation ecosystem.

If you want to understand better the complex forces shaping tech and policy between the world’s two largest economies, this is a must-listen.

Listeners should also check out Kevin’s newsletter Interconnected at interconnected.blog.

🔍 Discussion Points

• What Western analysts often get wrong about China’s tech ecosystem
• China’s strengths and weaknesses in AI vs. the U.S.
• Why Kevin believes 2025 may mark the start of “AI-driven layoffs” (AI RIF)
• DeepSeek’s rise and its open-source implications
• Why “open vs. closed” is a more useful lens than “US vs. China” in the AI race
• Alibaba’s AI and Cloud strategy post-reorganization
• Are U.S. tech export controls helping or hurting long-term AI innovation?
• Potential “second-order” consequences of chip restrictions
• Underrated trends in Chinese tech to watch in 2025
• What investors and operators should be paying attention to next