November 21, 2025 • 27 mins
From local market signals that reveal broader trends to the rising influence of AI on jobs and housing demand, Bruce outlines the forces shaping the future. He also breaks down key economic indicators — including national debt and renewed student loan burdens — that could impact the market in the coming years. Packed with forward-looking insights, this conversation helps investors prepare, adapt, and make smarter decisions in a rapidly changing landscape.
In this episode:
- Why today’s market feels “uncharted” — and what signals matter most.
- Understanding local market dynamics: How local market patterns can reveal national trends.
- AI & the Housing Market :The growing influence of AI on jobs, demand, and the future of real estate.
- Key economic pressures: national debt, student loans, and shifting affordability.
- Practical insights to help investors stay prepared for what’s ahead.
The Norris Group originates and services loans in California and Florida under California DRE License 01219911, Florida Mortgage Lender License 1577, and NMLS License 1623669. For more information on hard money lending, go www.thenorrisgroup.com and click the Hard Money tab.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Narrator (00:01):
Welcome to The Norris Group real estate podcast, a
show committed to bringing youinsights from thought leaders
shaping the real estateindustry. In each episode, we'll
dive into conversations withindustry experts and local
insiders, all aimed at helpingyou thrive in an ever-changing
real estate market. continuingthe legacy that Bruce Norris
(00:24):
created, sharing valuableknowledge, and empowering you on
your real estate journey.
Whether you're a seasoned pro ora newcomer, this is your go-to
source for insider tips, markettrends and success strategies.
Here's your host, Craig Evans.
Joey Romero (00:44):
Welcome back, everybody to the Norris group
real estate podcast for part twowith Bruce Norris and his market
timing journey. Hope you enjoy.
Just kind of for your knowledge,it was July 16 of 2020 when it
went under three. That was thefirst time. And then, we
actually enjoyed almost 18months of, you know, two it got
less. The lowest they got was2.69 okay. But then so from July
(01:06):
of 2020 to January of 2021, itwent, it stayed under three. So
it was a good run where a lot ofpeople did the opposite of, they
refied, theydidn't take money.
They just refined because theywere just lowering their
(01:29):
monthly.
Bruce Norris (01:29):
Right.
Joey Romero (01:29):
Right?
Bruce Norris (01:30):
They refined it three or four times and just
kept on. But I tell you theother thing they did sometimes
is they did pull out money, butit didn't change their payment.
And what they did is they addeda room that they've always
wanted, like an office, or theyput a pool in at no monthly
cost. And that's why you have somuch solidity in today's real
(01:51):
estate market. There's a lot ofpeople aren't going anywhere.
I'm good, great.
Joey Romero (01:57):
How do you feel now that it's 38 trillion? Do you
think we're going to hit that 40trillion?
Bruce Norris (02:06):
Yeah, in about a year.
Joey Romero (02:09):
Because we went from 37 to 38 in a year, right?
Bruce Norris (02:14):
Yeah, it can go up. It can go faster than that,
probably will. So, yeah, you'llhave 40 trillion within 12 to 18
months for sure.
Joey Romero (02:22):
Wow.
Bruce Norris (02:24):
But see, that's, the bond market is not happy
about that. There's, you know,that's the, that's one of the
things that you know, we'll talkabout when we get to the why
this report that we're going todo is important. That's one of
the problems. There's really,some really smart people like
(02:44):
Ray Dalio who talks about thedollar losing its world currency
status because of that. Well,that's, that's a very big...
Joey Romero (02:54):
Yeah, that's, that's, that's in my notes later
on. Okay, so let's, let's fastforward to 2022, you released
Uncharted Territory. But youquickly followed that up in 2023
with what you called your yourlast report. And that was What's
next 1% because, well, let mejust say something about
Uncharted, Uncharted. You wereliterally saying, like, Hey,
(03:18):
we're headed, we're headed intouncharted waters, because, you
know, we haven't been there. Andyou had, you had an idea of what
would happen, and it actuallyturned into like, what your two
outcomes, what you thought yourtwo outcomes were going to be,
it was either going to be a 1%mortgage or a lost decade, and
(03:39):
that's what the title of the2023, report was. Now, you
settled on the Lost Decade. Canyou, can you talk about why it
wasn't the 1%?
Bruce Norris (03:48):
I wasn't 1% because the mortgage rate
wouldn't go down that low. Inother words, you would need that
to accelerate the prices, okay?
Just like we needed a 2%mortgage to do the crazy thing,
but we did the crazy thing withthe 2% mortgage, and we got
everybody in when they wereeuphoric at the very a lot of
(04:10):
people went in at the top withthis big purchase price, but
they had a mortgage rate thatstarted with a two. And so, I
mean, they're good. So what'sinteresting is, that's why this
is such a safe journey. To thenext up movement is that you're
going to have very little pricemovement because you have no
(04:30):
room for it. Okay, when you gofrom two and a half to 567,
okay, well, that price shouldcome down, except for no REOs
and all the people that have atwo and a half to 4% mortgage
going, I'm good. So there wasjust enough inventory matched
with just enough buyers. Nowwhat we did say in that report
(04:52):
is the big problem is theindustry will be in a Great
Depression as far as.
Commissions. So if you look atthe commission structure for the
entire industry, for doing loansand getting commissions for
selling real estate, it's 45%off. That's 45% unemployment.
That's a great depression.
Joey Romero (05:14):
Yeah. Has there been, so is there other places
where there has been 1%mortgages or lost decades around
the world?
Bruce Norris (05:26):
Don't know the answer to that 1% mortgages? No,
I don't think so. But you couldsay that maybe is true in Japan.
I'd have to think about that. Ithink Japan had such a big price
increase that they did go downto a very low interest rate,
probably just the same, takingback properties and stuff like
that. But I'm not sure aboutthat, but I know they had very
(05:48):
low interest rates for a very,very long time.
Joey Romero (05:50):
Well, I think I remember sending you Japan's
last decade.
Bruce Norris (05:55):
Yeah, lost 25 years.
Joey Romero (05:59):
Yeah, that's a little longer than a decade.
Yeah. All right, well, so let'stalk about your latest endeavor,
which is Beyond Uncharted What'snext has never happened. Let me
start by saying, in 2023 we toldeverybody that this was going to
be your swan song and youweren't going to do it anymore.
So just for the record, Bruce,I'm never going to say this is
(06:22):
your last report ever. So thatwill never be, because you
actually wrote that in the piecethat you wrote for me to promote
it. You said one last time. Isaid, "Nope, taking that out".
Because I feel like as long asyou're capable, and as long as
you're you know you're able toyou're always going to want to
help investors. So that's justhow I feel. And I think...
Bruce Norris (06:43):
It's not just that I discover things that, okay, I
don't know enough about that,you know, that's kind of what
this is about. You know, we'llhave the normal charts and go
over the history and all that,but there are some very
significant things that havenever happened. And you're
going, Okay, well, how does thiswork? I mean, and it's over my
(07:06):
head. So as you know.
Joey Romero (07:08):
I'm gonna get into, I'm gonna get into this a little
bit right now. So, all right,so, but first of all, on top of
what we're gonna give Californiainvestors, are you going to try
to expand this, to make it, giveit more of a national feel, and
how they could, you know,interpret it into other markets.
Because I know there's a lot ofCalifornia investors that are
now investing in other places,Indiana, North Carolina,
(07:31):
Florida, Texas, Nevada. So arewe going to try and, you know,
tie how you see things inCalifornia, and maybe say how
this would work on a nationalscale?
Bruce Norris (07:44):
Yeah, it's one of the reasons it's been easier to
discover the sequences is thatCalifornia is exaggerated, okay.
So when you go, when you havethe charts, it it's got more of
this going on. I don't know thatI would have been able to figure
out if, had I gone to Texas orFlorida, which is like ehh- for
(08:06):
a long time. I don't, I don'tknow that I could have made the
discoveries I did California,you know, ran up to double the
national price, you know. Andthere were characteristics of
that. And then when it came backdown some all of that told a
story that was really only truein California. But then you
(08:26):
realize, when you start doingFlorida, okay, it's a moderate
version of that the emotions ofthe buyer and seller are
reacting the same. It's just notas exaggerated. And so, yeah, I
think the combination of doingthe Florida and California
report will tell a story that isnational. In other words, are
(08:50):
you don't buy a house in thenation? So that's, it's kind of
pointless to say that. So inother words, pointless to do
that. But you can say, Okay, areyou in a state that's similar to
Florida or similar to Californiain your price aggression and
giving it back, okay? And...
Joey Romero (09:08):
Well, have you ever looked at what, what places are
like California, what, whichones mimic the national scope?
Bruce Norris (09:17):
I'd have to say you'd have to go to the highest
price places. You know, you'dhave to go, probably go to
Hawaii, New York. But again, NewYork is very different. You got
the city and you got all that.
So I'm glad I got stuck withCalifornia, because it seemed
like it was, that was a verytelling thing. So, and I think,
I think what I what I've alsosaid is you kind of had a have a
(09:41):
roadmap. So if you want to gofind something out in Tennessee,
get the charts. You know whatthe story is, see what's the
story is. Where are you as faras maxed out to your capacity in
Tennessee? You know, there'll behistory of that. That's all we
do. You know that type of. It.
Joey Romero (10:00):
And now we have the actual mood that, that we have
for the whole country, the wholestate. Now, one of the things
that people would always talkabout is your big number was
affordability. Oh, is Brucethinking it's going to be 17%
all the time? Or now we've beencamped out under 17 for three
years now. Have you...
Bruce Norris (10:22):
...first time ever.
Joey Romero (10:23):
That's what I was about to ask you. Has that ever
happened?
Bruce Norris (10:26):
No, and that's why the title is very, is very
viable, that you have a lostdecade, because you're not going
to build a lot of momentum onsales. People are going to like
when it goes up to 19. Everybodythink that if you lower interest
rates, so going to be a bigdeal? No, it's not. They're not
(10:47):
in the mood to buy. Theyprobably made a decision to,
'okay, I'm going to rent foranother year'. The payment when
he gets to 17 is historicallythe max payment. So you get to
17, 18, 19, you don't have arush to go, 'oh, yeah, I want to
buy that', we're a long waysaway from that. The only reason
we don't have price damage isyou don't have a bunch of people
going, 'I gotta sell thisstuff'.
Joey Romero (11:09):
Well, and then how many people also, like, miss
their windows, you know? Have adifferent job, don't, aren't in
the same situations where, youknow what? Like, yeah,
affordability when went up. Butme, personally, I can't buy a
house now, you know. Now one ofthe things that I'll wait for,
I'll skip the next question Ihave. But you know, innovation
(11:30):
is great, and you know, youknow, Aaron used to talk about
it all the time, but one of thethings that people fear is
what's going to happen withartificial intelligence.
Bruce Norris (11:41):
Yeah.
Joey Romero (11:42):
You know, artificial intelligence is going
to be, is, I think it's going tocause great harm before it
causes, you know, gets everybodyback to, you know, a place where
they're happy, because there'sgoing to be a lot of things that
are going to be replaced. And somy question is, what's the
biggest danger to the housingmarket is it, how it's going to
(12:04):
affect unemployment?
Bruce Norris (12:10):
The housing market, you know, I'm just
trying to think the jobreplacement in general was say,
I can't say that. I've come to aconclusion on it. But if
everything is get so automated,you just need less people. I
(12:30):
mean, I guess that's the biggestthing, like mortgages. I think,
I just think that could be verymachine driven, if you will, you
know, and it probably alreadystarted and all that. But
there's a lot of jobs that aregoing to disappear.
Joey Romero (12:47):
I have a buddy that I play frisbee golf with, and,
I'm out there playing frisbee gowith them, and he's just getting
these leads where the AI, the AIchatbot, basically takes them
through everything other thansigning on the dotted line. And
(13:09):
so...
Bruce Norris (13:10):
See you just mentioned that one of the big
buyers in San Diego is training,in training AI to close people
on the purchases. Yeah, they doit like, they're trained to say
the when, the when the sellersays this, this is Yuri's month,
you know, that type of thing.
Holy cow.
Joey Romero (13:30):
And so you've always talked about, where are
the next, where's the next waveof have to sell houses, right?
So, if we get to, whatpercentage do you think we would
get to an unemployment wherepeople are going to be like, 'Oh
crap, I can't afford to liveanymore. I can't afford my
house'. Like, would it be 10%,20%?
Bruce Norris (13:49):
Man,I don't even know the answer to that. I, you
know, it's, Sean O'Toole 10years ago, and I asked him about
a month ago about his statement,he said that, what our country
has to figure out is how to havesociety where 50% of the people
don't have a job, 10 years ago,he said that I asked him if he
(14:13):
thought that was still true amonth ago, and he said Yes, so
that, of course, that'll beunbelievably impactful. I mean,
so, that's why, you know, again,that's one of the reasons why
doing this report to try andcontemplate the sequence that
(14:34):
that entails. Because every timeI'm watching something on
YouTube, like I'm watchingWarren Buffett teach for an
hour. Hey, you know, you realizethat's not Warren Buffett. It
isn't, it's his. It's his, what?
Joey Romero (14:54):
His avatar.
Bruce Norris (14:55):
Avatar, yeah, and so it's probably what he said.
The conference where you'rewatching, and you think, Okay,
well, wow, I get the Oh, andthen you go, and it's not like
that. You just realize there's alot of substitute for humans
coming, for sure. And I it'sover my head, which is, you know
(15:17):
why I appreciated delegatingthat to you, Joey, and I know
you own eight books, and it's,and it'll get you to a different
understanding than I can. Ibought two books. I only read
the first chapter of AI fordummies. So it was very fitting.
(15:38):
I realized that I have nobusiness teaching the chapter,
but well, go ahead.
Joey Romero (15:45):
I was just gonna say I am looking forward to this
challenge, because not only do Iknow the history of what your
time reports have done, whatthey're intended to do, and I'm
looking forward to see how thiswill really tie to real estate
and how it's going to affect,you know, buying and in real
(16:07):
estate investing in general, howit's going to, because buddy
Buddy has some great tools forreal estate investors, but
that's just talking aboutlearning, teaching you how to,
how to use AI.
Bruce Norris (16:18):
Right.
Joey Romero (16:18):
You know. And so, the impact that AI is going to
have is going to be far widerthan one or two industries. It's
going to be every industry.
Bruce Norris (16:31):
Yeah, I mean, I kind of sense that, and I, I
don't even know how tocontemplate the end result of
that, because you're, correct insaying, okay, well, if you
thought your career was going tobe, you know, fixed for a long
time, and then it's, you'regone. It's like, okay, I have a
(16:52):
house payment, and I, you know,and that's what, that's what
Sean was talking about. How doyou have society when half of
the people don't need to work,they don't have a job. Let's put
it that way, and whether it getsthat bad or not, but it also
seems like a race, in a way,where the people that are at the
smartest, at the top are pushingit as quickly as possible. So
(17:14):
it's sort of like a competitor.
I think nations have thatfeeling like, if I get there
first, America, we're betterthan, if China gets there first,
that type of thing. Somecompanies are also aggressive,
you know?
Joey Romero (17:30):
It's a big part of the stock exchange right now
too, all there's so much moneytied into it. So, so while and a
lot of people feel that it'spropping up the of the stock
market because, because there'stwo economies, there's the stock
market economy, and then there'sthe real economy that we live
in, right?
Bruce Norris (17:49):
Right.
Joey Romero (17:49):
And the one that we live in right now doesn't feel
very good.
Bruce Norris (17:52):
Right.
Joey Romero (17:52):
You know? So, so the stock is really indication
of how well I'm doing as as meand my family, you know? And so
that's what's, that's wherepeople are right now. Now, one
of the other things I wanted torun by you is, Gold, since
January 1 has gone up 50% that'sa huge run. And that's, there's
a couple reasons for that,right? There's, there's fear. So
(18:15):
people are, you know, trying to,trying to get their hands on as
much as they can. Did you knowwhen was the last time that this
happened? When it went up 50% inless than a calendar year?
Bruce Norris (18:27):
Probably what '80?
Joey Romero (18:30):
1971.
Bruce Norris (18:32):
'71. Okay.
Joey Romero (18:33):
So you know what followed after that? Are you
worried that that inflation isgoing to stick around and going
to explode here in the next fewyears?
Bruce Norris (18:42):
Well, you know, well, so interesting. So that's
a very interesting questionbecause of where we are in
affordability. So okay,historically, we have, you know,
a fairly average interest rate,let's say, at 6% or something
like that. When it's matchedwith our price, though, it's the
(19:03):
lowest affordability that we'vecamped out at ever. So if you
have inflation and you give thisreal estate market a 10%
mortgage rate, well, it'll lockin everybody that has a free and
fair house. It'll lock ineverybody that has a mortgage
(19:23):
rate, and it'll wipe out thepeople that are on commission
trying to sell something,because they'll even be less
volume. Will there be ton offoreclosures? No, you'll just
now have a reason. It's veryinteresting, Joey. So to think
back to 74 to 80 when interestrates went from seven and a half
(19:43):
to 15. So when you get to 1980there's a lot of bad charts that
happen. So you've helped me putthese together. We have
unemployment at 10% and youdon't have, like now, we have
eight months of inventory. We'refreaking out. You know how many
months they had? 24 months ofinventory, okay? And they had
10% unemployment. What was theprice damage, zero? Well, one of
(20:06):
the reasons was they hadeverybody at a mortgage at seven
and a half, right? Five yearsago. They were good.
Joey Romero (20:14):
Stayed there.
Bruce Norris (20:15):
They just stayed there. They didn't lose their
house. So it's interesting thatwe could be facing, and that's,
you know, one of the reasonsreally, taking a look at the
debt, you know, there's a lot ofvery smart people that are
looking at national debt, going,that's scary stuff. It's getting
too large. We could lose ourreserve currency status. Well,
(20:38):
that's a very big statement, andmade by a guy like Ray Dalio.
That's no joke, because RayDalio, like I, studied 50 Years
of real estate charts. Hestudied 500 years of world
history and charted how everycountry lost world reserve
currency status. And he feelslike the US is nearly it's stage
five of the of the journey.
Joey Romero (21:00):
He's got five stages, right? And we're four
right now.
Bruce Norris (21:04):
Headed to five.
Joey Romero (21:05):
Headed to five. And you and what I don't like about
that is, it's revolution or war.
Bruce Norris (21:10):
That's right, that's very upsetting to
society, because there's thehaves and the have nots are
accelerated. So, yes, so youcan, that's why, you know, in
our lifetime, this really hasn'toccurred before. So there's a
haven't worried about the dollarnot being the world reserve
(21:31):
currency. And there's just a lotof things to contemplate, you
know, and that, I always likewhen I'm writing a report that I
would I want the answers for thequestions myself?
Joey Romero (21:43):
It's just like when we do our, when we do the
tactics, brunches and you'reasking all the great questions,
but it's because they're justquestions that you want to know.
Bruce Norris (21:55):
That's right, you know that's when. So when I when
I study this stuff, I'm not juststudying it, just to teach it.
I'm studying it so I cancomprehend it for my own life
decisions too, you know? And Ijust realized, I think there's
some new ones I have tocontemplate.
Joey Romero (22:13):
Yeah, I think, it's, I think it's it's going to
unwind over a longer period,than it has in the past for a
couple reasons. One, there'sthere's not. Number two,
currency that's that close yet.
And also, the debt that is heldis still held in dollars, not in
other currencies. So that'sgoing to keep us from unwanted
(22:35):
I'm not saying it's nothappening, because, you know
raise, also not sure that itwon't happen. And also, the
other thing that he's, he's notsure that will happen is that it
would be a violent war, that itmay, there might be a, you know,
some sort of a revolution thatcan happen that doesn't lead to
violence. It's just, it will,something drastic will change,
(22:56):
and hopefully it's, it'ssomething that we can be
civilized about it, you know.
Bruce Norris (23:02):
Yeah, or or avoid it. You know, that's, I guess
that's the other thing is, ifyou have a roadmap, well, why
don't we not go down that finalroad, which corrects some stuff?
Joey Romero (23:14):
So, all right, let me ask you one last question.
What do you want investors totake away from your next report?
Bruce Norris (23:20):
I think I just want them to look at the future
with a little better, clearvision of something that's never
occurred. You know, that's the,I think that's the goal for this
report, is to contemplate AI andthe country losing world
(23:40):
currency status and a few othertopics that, you know, you just
have to prepare yourself in theevent that happens. How do I
change what I do, to be, to landon the on my feet, you know? So
it is interesting that even haveto contemplate things that in
(24:00):
this report, because I reallyhad never thought about that.
You know, it's interesting, too,when you look at, one of the
things that's happened recentlyis college debt has been
released again and has paymentsand consequences. So it had been
dormant for quite a long time.
No payment. Just sit there, andall of a sudden, when you look
(24:23):
at a delinquency rate, that waszero until the last six months,
and it zoomed ahead of, youknow.
Joey Romero (24:30):
Oh, yeah, no, it's crazy. I saw this chart. I just,
I just, I was just looking atthat, that consumer report from
the New York Fed, and it's, Imean, everything's jumbled in
the middle, and then recentthat's just literally like,
like, No, I don't even, youdon't even call it hockey stick.
It's just straight up.
Bruce Norris (24:48):
Okay, well, think of the consequence of that.
They're in the house, flyingrage, okay.
Joey Romero (24:52):
Yeah.
Bruce Norris (24:52):
Yeah. Well, you, you don't have enough money, you
can't even make your payment toyour college. You just ruin your
credit. So are you now a renter?
So, you know, Warren Buffett'scompany just spent billions of
dollars, and what stock did theybuy? They bought the stock the
builders are building rentals.
That's what's coming so you'regoing to go from home ownership
(25:15):
to home rental. That's also nota very good society where they
feel like, okay, wow, I can'tparticipate in the goodies.
Joey Romero (25:23):
Yeah.
Bruce Norris (25:25):
So anyway, lot of, lot of things, and I, I don't
even know how it ends myself,you know, that's what's fun at
doing the last chapter Icontemplate all the way until
I'm done.
Joey Romero (25:36):
Yeah. Well, it's, it's gonna be robust to tell you
anything, you know, I don'tthink I've ever had a first
draft of yours that has 500slides, and that's not even it
yet, you know, because theresome of that was just
placeholders of like, hey, westill have to build this
chapter.
Bruce Norris (25:53):
Yes.
Joey Romero (25:53):
So it's gonna get more but yeah, so it'll be fun.
It'll be fun, and it'll be funto to really participate at a
different level for me too. SoI'm going to, I'm going to look
to make, make Aaron proud, youknow, see how he would have done
it. Alright, Bruce, thank you somuch for joining us. And
alright, everybody, we'll seeyou next week and go to
(26:17):
thenorrisgroup.com and go to theEvents Page and get your ticket.
All right, we'll see you then.
Bruce Norris (26:24):
All right, Joey bye bye.
Joey Romero (26:25):
Bye.
Narrator (26:26):
For more information on hard money loans, trust deed
investing, and upcoming eventswith The Norris group. Check out
thenorrisgroup.com. For moreinformation on passive investing
through the DBL Capital RealEstate Investment Fund, please
visit dblapital.com.
Joey Romero (26:45):
The Norris Group originates and services loans in
California and Florida underCalifornia DRE license 01219911.
Florida mortgage lender license1577 and NMLS license 1623669.
For more information on hardmoney lending go to
thenorrisgroup.com and click thehard money tab.
Welcome to The Norris Group real estate podcast, a
show committed to bringing youinsights from thought leaders
shaping the real estateindustry. In each episode, we'll
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insiders, all aimed at helpingyou thrive in an ever-changing
real estate market. continuingthe legacy that Bruce Norris
(00:24):
created, sharing valuableknowledge, and empowering you on
your real estate journey.
Whether you're a seasoned pro ora newcomer, this is your go-to
source for insider tips, markettrends and success strategies.
Here's your host, Craig Evans.
Joey Romero (00:44):
Welcome back, everybody to the Norris group
real estate podcast for part twowith Bruce Norris and his market
timing journey. Hope you enjoy.
Just kind of for your knowledge,it was July 16 of 2020 when it
went under three. That was thefirst time. And then, we
actually enjoyed almost 18months of, you know, two it got
less. The lowest they got was2.69 okay. But then so from July
(01:06):
of 2020 to January of 2021, itwent, it stayed under three. So
it was a good run where a lot ofpeople did the opposite of, they
refied, theydidn't take money.
They just refined because theywere just lowering their
(01:29):
monthly.
Bruce Norris (01:29):
Right.
Joey Romero (01:29):
Right?
Bruce Norris (01:30):
They refined it three or four times and just
kept on. But I tell you theother thing they did sometimes
is they did pull out money, butit didn't change their payment.
And what they did is they addeda room that they've always
wanted, like an office, or theyput a pool in at no monthly
cost. And that's why you have somuch solidity in today's real
(01:51):
estate market. There's a lot ofpeople aren't going anywhere.
I'm good, great.
Joey Romero (01:57):
How do you feel now that it's 38 trillion? Do you
think we're going to hit that 40trillion?
Bruce Norris (02:06):
Yeah, in about a year.
Joey Romero (02:09):
Because we went from 37 to 38 in a year, right?
Bruce Norris (02:14):
Yeah, it can go up. It can go faster than that,
probably will. So, yeah, you'llhave 40 trillion within 12 to 18
months for sure.
Joey Romero (02:22):
Wow.
Bruce Norris (02:24):
But see, that's, the bond market is not happy
about that. There's, you know,that's the, that's one of the
things that you know, we'll talkabout when we get to the why
this report that we're going todo is important. That's one of
the problems. There's really,some really smart people like
(02:44):
Ray Dalio who talks about thedollar losing its world currency
status because of that. Well,that's, that's a very big...
Joey Romero (02:54):
Yeah, that's, that's, that's in my notes later
on. Okay, so let's, let's fastforward to 2022, you released
Uncharted Territory. But youquickly followed that up in 2023
with what you called your yourlast report. And that was What's
next 1% because, well, let mejust say something about
Uncharted, Uncharted. You wereliterally saying, like, Hey,
(03:18):
we're headed, we're headed intouncharted waters, because, you
know, we haven't been there. Andyou had, you had an idea of what
would happen, and it actuallyturned into like, what your two
outcomes, what you thought yourtwo outcomes were going to be,
it was either going to be a 1%mortgage or a lost decade, and
(03:39):
that's what the title of the2023, report was. Now, you
settled on the Lost Decade. Canyou, can you talk about why it
wasn't the 1%?
Bruce Norris (03:48):
I wasn't 1% because the mortgage rate
wouldn't go down that low. Inother words, you would need that
to accelerate the prices, okay?
Just like we needed a 2%mortgage to do the crazy thing,
but we did the crazy thing withthe 2% mortgage, and we got
everybody in when they wereeuphoric at the very a lot of
(04:10):
people went in at the top withthis big purchase price, but
they had a mortgage rate thatstarted with a two. And so, I
mean, they're good. So what'sinteresting is, that's why this
is such a safe journey. To thenext up movement is that you're
going to have very little pricemovement because you have no
(04:30):
room for it. Okay, when you gofrom two and a half to 567,
okay, well, that price shouldcome down, except for no REOs
and all the people that have atwo and a half to 4% mortgage
going, I'm good. So there wasjust enough inventory matched
with just enough buyers. Nowwhat we did say in that report
(04:52):
is the big problem is theindustry will be in a Great
Depression as far as.
Commissions. So if you look atthe commission structure for the
entire industry, for doing loansand getting commissions for
selling real estate, it's 45%off. That's 45% unemployment.
That's a great depression.
Joey Romero (05:14):
Yeah. Has there been, so is there other places
where there has been 1%mortgages or lost decades around
the world?
Bruce Norris (05:26):
Don't know the answer to that 1% mortgages? No,
I don't think so. But you couldsay that maybe is true in Japan.
I'd have to think about that. Ithink Japan had such a big price
increase that they did go downto a very low interest rate,
probably just the same, takingback properties and stuff like
that. But I'm not sure aboutthat, but I know they had very
(05:48):
low interest rates for a very,very long time.
Joey Romero (05:50):
Well, I think I remember sending you Japan's
last decade.
Bruce Norris (05:55):
Yeah, lost 25 years.
Joey Romero (05:59):
Yeah, that's a little longer than a decade.
Yeah. All right, well, so let'stalk about your latest endeavor,
which is Beyond Uncharted What'snext has never happened. Let me
start by saying, in 2023 we toldeverybody that this was going to
be your swan song and youweren't going to do it anymore.
So just for the record, Bruce,I'm never going to say this is
(06:22):
your last report ever. So thatwill never be, because you
actually wrote that in the piecethat you wrote for me to promote
it. You said one last time. Isaid, "Nope, taking that out".
Because I feel like as long asyou're capable, and as long as
you're you know you're able toyou're always going to want to
help investors. So that's justhow I feel. And I think...
Bruce Norris (06:43):
It's not just that I discover things that, okay, I
don't know enough about that,you know, that's kind of what
this is about. You know, we'llhave the normal charts and go
over the history and all that,but there are some very
significant things that havenever happened. And you're
going, Okay, well, how does thiswork? I mean, and it's over my
(07:06):
head. So as you know.
Joey Romero (07:08):
I'm gonna get into, I'm gonna get into this a little
bit right now. So, all right,so, but first of all, on top of
what we're gonna give Californiainvestors, are you going to try
to expand this, to make it, giveit more of a national feel, and
how they could, you know,interpret it into other markets.
Because I know there's a lot ofCalifornia investors that are
now investing in other places,Indiana, North Carolina,
(07:31):
Florida, Texas, Nevada. So arewe going to try and, you know,
tie how you see things inCalifornia, and maybe say how
this would work on a nationalscale?
Bruce Norris (07:44):
Yeah, it's one of the reasons it's been easier to
discover the sequences is thatCalifornia is exaggerated, okay.
So when you go, when you havethe charts, it it's got more of
this going on. I don't know thatI would have been able to figure
out if, had I gone to Texas orFlorida, which is like ehh- for
(08:06):
a long time. I don't, I don'tknow that I could have made the
discoveries I did California,you know, ran up to double the
national price, you know. Andthere were characteristics of
that. And then when it came backdown some all of that told a
story that was really only truein California. But then you
(08:26):
realize, when you start doingFlorida, okay, it's a moderate
version of that the emotions ofthe buyer and seller are
reacting the same. It's just notas exaggerated. And so, yeah, I
think the combination of doingthe Florida and California
report will tell a story that isnational. In other words, are
(08:50):
you don't buy a house in thenation? So that's, it's kind of
pointless to say that. So inother words, pointless to do
that. But you can say, Okay, areyou in a state that's similar to
Florida or similar to Californiain your price aggression and
giving it back, okay? And...
Joey Romero (09:08):
Well, have you ever looked at what, what places are
like California, what, whichones mimic the national scope?
Bruce Norris (09:17):
I'd have to say you'd have to go to the highest
price places. You know, you'dhave to go, probably go to
Hawaii, New York. But again, NewYork is very different. You got
the city and you got all that.
So I'm glad I got stuck withCalifornia, because it seemed
like it was, that was a verytelling thing. So, and I think,
I think what I what I've alsosaid is you kind of had a have a
(09:41):
roadmap. So if you want to gofind something out in Tennessee,
get the charts. You know whatthe story is, see what's the
story is. Where are you as faras maxed out to your capacity in
Tennessee? You know, there'll behistory of that. That's all we
do. You know that type of. It.
Joey Romero (10:00):
And now we have the actual mood that, that we have
for the whole country, the wholestate. Now, one of the things
that people would always talkabout is your big number was
affordability. Oh, is Brucethinking it's going to be 17%
all the time? Or now we've beencamped out under 17 for three
years now. Have you...
Bruce Norris (10:22):
...first time ever.
Joey Romero (10:23):
That's what I was about to ask you. Has that ever
happened?
Bruce Norris (10:26):
No, and that's why the title is very, is very
viable, that you have a lostdecade, because you're not going
to build a lot of momentum onsales. People are going to like
when it goes up to 19. Everybodythink that if you lower interest
rates, so going to be a bigdeal? No, it's not. They're not
(10:47):
in the mood to buy. Theyprobably made a decision to,
'okay, I'm going to rent foranother year'. The payment when
he gets to 17 is historicallythe max payment. So you get to
17, 18, 19, you don't have arush to go, 'oh, yeah, I want to
buy that', we're a long waysaway from that. The only reason
we don't have price damage isyou don't have a bunch of people
going, 'I gotta sell thisstuff'.
Joey Romero (11:09):
Well, and then how many people also, like, miss
their windows, you know? Have adifferent job, don't, aren't in
the same situations where, youknow what? Like, yeah,
affordability when went up. Butme, personally, I can't buy a
house now, you know. Now one ofthe things that I'll wait for,
I'll skip the next question Ihave. But you know, innovation
(11:30):
is great, and you know, youknow, Aaron used to talk about
it all the time, but one of thethings that people fear is
what's going to happen withartificial intelligence.
Bruce Norris (11:41):
Yeah.
Joey Romero (11:42):
You know, artificial intelligence is going
to be, is, I think it's going tocause great harm before it
causes, you know, gets everybodyback to, you know, a place where
they're happy, because there'sgoing to be a lot of things that
are going to be replaced. And somy question is, what's the
biggest danger to the housingmarket is it, how it's going to
(12:04):
affect unemployment?
Bruce Norris (12:10):
The housing market, you know, I'm just
trying to think the jobreplacement in general was say,
I can't say that. I've come to aconclusion on it. But if
everything is get so automated,you just need less people. I
(12:30):
mean, I guess that's the biggestthing, like mortgages. I think,
I just think that could be verymachine driven, if you will, you
know, and it probably alreadystarted and all that. But
there's a lot of jobs that aregoing to disappear.
Joey Romero (12:47):
I have a buddy that I play frisbee golf with, and,
I'm out there playing frisbee gowith them, and he's just getting
these leads where the AI, the AIchatbot, basically takes them
through everything other thansigning on the dotted line. And
(13:09):
so...
Bruce Norris (13:10):
See you just mentioned that one of the big
buyers in San Diego is training,in training AI to close people
on the purchases. Yeah, they doit like, they're trained to say
the when, the when the sellersays this, this is Yuri's month,
you know, that type of thing.
Holy cow.
Joey Romero (13:30):
And so you've always talked about, where are
the next, where's the next waveof have to sell houses, right?
So, if we get to, whatpercentage do you think we would
get to an unemployment wherepeople are going to be like, 'Oh
crap, I can't afford to liveanymore. I can't afford my
house'. Like, would it be 10%,20%?
Bruce Norris (13:49):
Man,I don't even know the answer to that. I, you
know, it's, Sean O'Toole 10years ago, and I asked him about
a month ago about his statement,he said that, what our country
has to figure out is how to havesociety where 50% of the people
don't have a job, 10 years ago,he said that I asked him if he
(14:13):
thought that was still true amonth ago, and he said Yes, so
that, of course, that'll beunbelievably impactful. I mean,
so, that's why, you know, again,that's one of the reasons why
doing this report to try andcontemplate the sequence that
(14:34):
that entails. Because every timeI'm watching something on
YouTube, like I'm watchingWarren Buffett teach for an
hour. Hey, you know, you realizethat's not Warren Buffett. It
isn't, it's his. It's his, what?
Joey Romero (14:54):
His avatar.
Bruce Norris (14:55):
Avatar, yeah, and so it's probably what he said.
The conference where you'rewatching, and you think, Okay,
well, wow, I get the Oh, andthen you go, and it's not like
that. You just realize there's alot of substitute for humans
coming, for sure. And I it'sover my head, which is, you know
(15:17):
why I appreciated delegatingthat to you, Joey, and I know
you own eight books, and it's,and it'll get you to a different
understanding than I can. Ibought two books. I only read
the first chapter of AI fordummies. So it was very fitting.
(15:38):
I realized that I have nobusiness teaching the chapter,
but well, go ahead.
Joey Romero (15:45):
I was just gonna say I am looking forward to this
challenge, because not only do Iknow the history of what your
time reports have done, whatthey're intended to do, and I'm
looking forward to see how thiswill really tie to real estate
and how it's going to affect,you know, buying and in real
(16:07):
estate investing in general, howit's going to, because buddy
Buddy has some great tools forreal estate investors, but
that's just talking aboutlearning, teaching you how to,
how to use AI.
Bruce Norris (16:18):
Right.
Joey Romero (16:18):
You know. And so, the impact that AI is going to
have is going to be far widerthan one or two industries. It's
going to be every industry.
Bruce Norris (16:31):
Yeah, I mean, I kind of sense that, and I, I
don't even know how tocontemplate the end result of
that, because you're, correct insaying, okay, well, if you
thought your career was going tobe, you know, fixed for a long
time, and then it's, you'regone. It's like, okay, I have a
(16:52):
house payment, and I, you know,and that's what, that's what
Sean was talking about. How doyou have society when half of
the people don't need to work,they don't have a job. Let's put
it that way, and whether it getsthat bad or not, but it also
seems like a race, in a way,where the people that are at the
smartest, at the top are pushingit as quickly as possible. So
(17:14):
it's sort of like a competitor.
I think nations have thatfeeling like, if I get there
first, America, we're betterthan, if China gets there first,
that type of thing. Somecompanies are also aggressive,
you know?
Joey Romero (17:30):
It's a big part of the stock exchange right now
too, all there's so much moneytied into it. So, so while and a
lot of people feel that it'spropping up the of the stock
market because, because there'stwo economies, there's the stock
market economy, and then there'sthe real economy that we live
in, right?
Bruce Norris (17:49):
Right.
Joey Romero (17:49):
And the one that we live in right now doesn't feel
very good.
Bruce Norris (17:52):
Right.
Joey Romero (17:52):
You know? So, so the stock is really indication
of how well I'm doing as as meand my family, you know? And so
that's what's, that's wherepeople are right now. Now, one
of the other things I wanted torun by you is, Gold, since
January 1 has gone up 50% that'sa huge run. And that's, there's
a couple reasons for that,right? There's, there's fear. So
(18:15):
people are, you know, trying to,trying to get their hands on as
much as they can. Did you knowwhen was the last time that this
happened? When it went up 50% inless than a calendar year?
Bruce Norris (18:27):
Probably what '80?
Joey Romero (18:30):
1971.
Bruce Norris (18:32):
'71. Okay.
Joey Romero (18:33):
So you know what followed after that? Are you
worried that that inflation isgoing to stick around and going
to explode here in the next fewyears?
Bruce Norris (18:42):
Well, you know, well, so interesting. So that's
a very interesting questionbecause of where we are in
affordability. So okay,historically, we have, you know,
a fairly average interest rate,let's say, at 6% or something
like that. When it's matchedwith our price, though, it's the
(19:03):
lowest affordability that we'vecamped out at ever. So if you
have inflation and you give thisreal estate market a 10%
mortgage rate, well, it'll lockin everybody that has a free and
fair house. It'll lock ineverybody that has a mortgage
(19:23):
rate, and it'll wipe out thepeople that are on commission
trying to sell something,because they'll even be less
volume. Will there be ton offoreclosures? No, you'll just
now have a reason. It's veryinteresting, Joey. So to think
back to 74 to 80 when interestrates went from seven and a half
(19:43):
to 15. So when you get to 1980there's a lot of bad charts that
happen. So you've helped me putthese together. We have
unemployment at 10% and youdon't have, like now, we have
eight months of inventory. We'refreaking out. You know how many
months they had? 24 months ofinventory, okay? And they had
10% unemployment. What was theprice damage, zero? Well, one of
(20:06):
the reasons was they hadeverybody at a mortgage at seven
and a half, right? Five yearsago. They were good.
Joey Romero (20:14):
Stayed there.
Bruce Norris (20:15):
They just stayed there. They didn't lose their
house. So it's interesting thatwe could be facing, and that's,
you know, one of the reasonsreally, taking a look at the
debt, you know, there's a lot ofvery smart people that are
looking at national debt, going,that's scary stuff. It's getting
too large. We could lose ourreserve currency status. Well,
(20:38):
that's a very big statement, andmade by a guy like Ray Dalio.
That's no joke, because RayDalio, like I, studied 50 Years
of real estate charts. Hestudied 500 years of world
history and charted how everycountry lost world reserve
currency status. And he feelslike the US is nearly it's stage
five of the of the journey.
Joey Romero (21:00):
He's got five stages, right? And we're four
right now.
Bruce Norris (21:04):
Headed to five.
Joey Romero (21:05):
Headed to five. And you and what I don't like about
that is, it's revolution or war.
Bruce Norris (21:10):
That's right, that's very upsetting to
society, because there's thehaves and the have nots are
accelerated. So, yes, so youcan, that's why, you know, in
our lifetime, this really hasn'toccurred before. So there's a
haven't worried about the dollarnot being the world reserve
(21:31):
currency. And there's just a lotof things to contemplate, you
know, and that, I always likewhen I'm writing a report that I
would I want the answers for thequestions myself?
Joey Romero (21:43):
It's just like when we do our, when we do the
tactics, brunches and you'reasking all the great questions,
but it's because they're justquestions that you want to know.
Bruce Norris (21:55):
That's right, you know that's when. So when I when
I study this stuff, I'm not juststudying it, just to teach it.
I'm studying it so I cancomprehend it for my own life
decisions too, you know? And Ijust realized, I think there's
some new ones I have tocontemplate.
Joey Romero (22:13):
Yeah, I think, it's, I think it's it's going to
unwind over a longer period,than it has in the past for a
couple reasons. One, there'sthere's not. Number two,
currency that's that close yet.
And also, the debt that is heldis still held in dollars, not in
other currencies. So that'sgoing to keep us from unwanted
(22:35):
I'm not saying it's nothappening, because, you know
raise, also not sure that itwon't happen. And also, the
other thing that he's, he's notsure that will happen is that it
would be a violent war, that itmay, there might be a, you know,
some sort of a revolution thatcan happen that doesn't lead to
violence. It's just, it will,something drastic will change,
(22:56):
and hopefully it's, it'ssomething that we can be
civilized about it, you know.
Bruce Norris (23:02):
Yeah, or or avoid it. You know, that's, I guess
that's the other thing is, ifyou have a roadmap, well, why
don't we not go down that finalroad, which corrects some stuff?
Joey Romero (23:14):
So, all right, let me ask you one last question.
What do you want investors totake away from your next report?
Bruce Norris (23:20):
I think I just want them to look at the future
with a little better, clearvision of something that's never
occurred. You know, that's the,I think that's the goal for this
report, is to contemplate AI andthe country losing world
(23:40):
currency status and a few othertopics that, you know, you just
have to prepare yourself in theevent that happens. How do I
change what I do, to be, to landon the on my feet, you know? So
it is interesting that even haveto contemplate things that in
(24:00):
this report, because I reallyhad never thought about that.
You know, it's interesting, too,when you look at, one of the
things that's happened recentlyis college debt has been
released again and has paymentsand consequences. So it had been
dormant for quite a long time.
No payment. Just sit there, andall of a sudden, when you look
(24:23):
at a delinquency rate, that waszero until the last six months,
and it zoomed ahead of, youknow.
Joey Romero (24:30):
Oh, yeah, no, it's crazy. I saw this chart. I just,
I just, I was just looking atthat, that consumer report from
the New York Fed, and it's, Imean, everything's jumbled in
the middle, and then recentthat's just literally like,
like, No, I don't even, youdon't even call it hockey stick.
It's just straight up.
Bruce Norris (24:48):
Okay, well, think of the consequence of that.
They're in the house, flyingrage, okay.
Joey Romero (24:52):
Yeah.
Bruce Norris (24:52):
Yeah. Well, you, you don't have enough money, you
can't even make your payment toyour college. You just ruin your
credit. So are you now a renter?
So, you know, Warren Buffett'scompany just spent billions of
dollars, and what stock did theybuy? They bought the stock the
builders are building rentals.
That's what's coming so you'regoing to go from home ownership
(25:15):
to home rental. That's also nota very good society where they
feel like, okay, wow, I can'tparticipate in the goodies.
Joey Romero (25:23):
Yeah.
Bruce Norris (25:25):
So anyway, lot of, lot of things, and I, I don't
even know how it ends myself,you know, that's what's fun at
doing the last chapter Icontemplate all the way until
I'm done.
Joey Romero (25:36):
Yeah. Well, it's, it's gonna be robust to tell you
anything, you know, I don'tthink I've ever had a first
draft of yours that has 500slides, and that's not even it
yet, you know, because theresome of that was just
placeholders of like, hey, westill have to build this
chapter.
Bruce Norris (25:53):
Yes.
Joey Romero (25:53):
So it's gonna get more but yeah, so it'll be fun.
It'll be fun, and it'll be funto to really participate at a
different level for me too. SoI'm going to, I'm going to look
to make, make Aaron proud, youknow, see how he would have done
it. Alright, Bruce, thank you somuch for joining us. And
alright, everybody, we'll seeyou next week and go to
(26:17):
thenorrisgroup.com and go to theEvents Page and get your ticket.
All right, we'll see you then.
Bruce Norris (26:24):
All right, Joey bye bye.
Joey Romero (26:25):
Bye.
Narrator (26:26):
For more information on hard money loans, trust deed
investing, and upcoming eventswith The Norris group. Check out
thenorrisgroup.com. For moreinformation on passive investing
through the DBL Capital RealEstate Investment Fund, please
visit dblapital.com.
Joey Romero (26:45):
The Norris Group originates and services loans in
California and Florida underCalifornia DRE license 01219911.
Florida mortgage lender license1577 and NMLS license 1623669.
For more information on hardmoney lending go to
thenorrisgroup.com and click thehard money tab.
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