September 26, 2025 • 19 mins
I SURVIVED REAL ESTATE 2025
The Norris Group Presents: The 18th Annual I Survived Real Estate – LIVE at the Nixon Presidential Library
The Norris Group’s award-winning black-tie gala, I Survived Real Estate, returns for its 18th year. Since 2008, I Survived Real Estate has supported Make-A-Wish OC & IE—and thanks to your generosity, we’ve now raised over $1.2 million for children in need
This year’s backdrop?
A California housing market still starved for inventory, mortgage rates hovering above comfort zones, affordability hitting generational lows, inflation and tariffs. Add in global uncertainty, sticky inflation, and the ever-watchful eye of the Federal Reserve—and you’ve got a landscape full of questions.
- Inventory Drought: California’s housing supply remains critically low
- Rate Pressure: Mortgage rates linger well above buyer comfort zones
- Priced Out: Affordability has collapsed to generational lows
- Global Tensions: War, tariffs, and instability rattle investor confidence
- Inflation’s Grip: Costs remain stubbornly high, squeezing margins
- Tariff Troubles: Rising import costs could ripple through construction and development
- All Eyes on the Fed: Every rate hint could send shockwaves through the market
Our expert panel brings top minds in economics, investing, and housing to help us prepare for what’s next. I Survived Real Estate was born from crisis, with a mission to unite thought leaders, give back, and guide our industry forward.
In this episode:
- Exploring the connection between Median Household Income and Median Home Prices
- Introduction to the MoodOdometer, a new way to measure market sentiment
- Looking back at historical market conditions through the MoodOdometer lens
- Craig Evans and Bruce Norris on how interest rates shape market mood and buyer behavior
- Craig Evans unveils the National MoodOdometer
- Announcement of a new digital platform offering real-time housing data and insights
The Norris Group originates and services loans in California and Florida under California DRE License 01219911, Florida Mortgage Lender License 1577, and NMLS License 1623669. For more information on hard money lending, go www.thenorrisgroup.com and click the Hard Money tab.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Narrator (00:01):
Welcome to The Norris Group real estate podcast, a
show committed to bringing youinsights from thought leaders
shaping the real estateindustry. In each episode, we'll
dive into conversations withindustry experts and local
insiders, all aimed at helpingyou thrive in an ever-changing
real estate market. continuingthe legacy that Bruce Norris
(00:24):
created, sharing valuableknowledge, and empowering you on
your real estate journey.
Whether you're a seasoned pro ora newcomer, this is your go-to
source for insider tips, markettrends and success strategies.
Here's your host, Craig Evans.
Joey Romero (00:45):
The Norris Group is proud to present our 18th annual
gala. I Survived Real Estate atThe Nixon Presidential Library
on Friday, September 12. Since2008, our event has raised well
over a million dollars. Thisyear, we'll be raising funds
again from Make-A-Wish OC andIE. Individual Tickets are
available now. To get yourtickets, go to
isurviverealestate.com click thelink here in the card. We would
(01:08):
like to thank the followingplatinum sponsors, uDirectIRA
Services, The San Diego CreativeInvestors Association,
DouglasBrooke Homes, MVTProductions, Realty411, and DBL
Capital.
Craig Evans (01:25):
Talk to you about median household income to
median price. Yeah.
Bruce Norris (01:29):
What's interesting about this is so this has a lot
to do with the current interestrates, let's say. So let's go to
1980 anybody borrow money in1980? I read refinanced my house
at 17 and a half.
Craig Evans (01:42):
Good break. Okay.
Bruce Norris (01:44):
So you were at 4.7 multiplying times your household
income, but your payment wascrazy, because it was an
interest rate that was crazy,but again, so this is just a
history, so this multiple isreally kind of connected to the
interest rate at the time. Sowhat is saying is, remember the
affordability number being 17?
Craig Evans (02:03):
Right.
Bruce Norris (02:04):
Okay, it was 17, let's say in 1980 and say 2004
or five. Well, that multiple,doubled, but it still got to the
affordability number that waseven. So that's how important
interest rates are, because youcan't get to a 10 multiple if
you have an interest rate that'snine.
Craig Evans (02:21):
Right.
Bruce Norris (02:21):
Right. So that's basically what that's telling
you. Is this multiple needs adecent interest rate, or if you
have a crazy interest rate,you're going to be back to four
or five.
Craig Evans (02:37):
Right. Now, here's where I wanted us to land,
because I want to spend a fewminutes here, and this is one of
the things that I've seenthrough this year, is that let
me look at what's this, where Iwant us to see we've got so many
people that talk about this andthat call and ask about it, but
as I hear people ask thequestions, it's it's been
dawning on me. A lot of peopledon't get this chart.
Bruce Norris (02:54):
Okay.
Craig Evans (02:54):
So I want you to dive into why was this your
cheat sheet? You I've heard youuse that term to me over and
over. This was a cheat sheetthat we should all know how to
use. Okay, well, then Bruce,why? Why is that the cheatsheet?
Bruce Norris (03:06):
Yeah, what I renamed it, what this is, is,
what percentage of your incomeare you willing to pay for house
payment? It assumes you have a20% down, and you get the going
interest rate, and so you havean 80% mortgage, and there's
your payment compared to yourearnings. So that's what this
is. I renamed it because it'sreally a calculation of the mood
of the participant. Because ifyou think humans always act the
(03:29):
same, apparently we don't.
What's interesting. First ofall, let's say this that the
direction is most important onthis chart. So if you see you
get close to 70% on your journeyto 70% it's accompanying a lot
of other very positive charts.
When you get done with 70% andlet's say you go all the way to
(03:51):
the end now 2022 and now we'rehovering around 60%, that 60% is
a much different reaction in themarket than when you're in 1998
going towards 60% could you havea progression of mood and you're
going to get to the brink untilthey lenders finally tell you,
'No'. What this is, it takes thetemperature of the participant,
(04:15):
which is most important, howmany guys are getting multiple
offers on what you have for saleright now?
Okay, so the mood is high in anumber, but because, again, this
is the direction is mostimportant. When you were at 60%
going up, you've got multipleoffers on everything, and now
(04:35):
you're not getting it onanything. You know, the only
reason you have a lot ofstability right now is because
we have a base of mortgages thatare two and a half to three and
a half or 4% that tons of peoplehave, and they're not going
anywhere. And we predicted thatin a report, because I had to
cut trying to calibrate that,because we're going to be at a
pretty high moodometer numberfor quite a long time. And I
(04:56):
think the report name was 1%mortgage rates or lost decade,
and we're in the lost decadeperiod because we don't get a 1%
mortgage, there's not going tobe that drop in the mood. You
know, you need to, you need tospread. Doesn't mean we're going
to go down in price, but it doesmean that we've used up a lot of
the room. But here's whathappens a human participant, and
(05:17):
that's why I love this chart,because it allows me to do what
I don't feel like doing. Well,you are in a euphoric mood,
like, say, 2004 and five andsix, when prices are going up
and everything you touch turnsto gold. Don't you feel like
you're a genius? That's great. Iput it up for sale at one for 70
grand more that day. And what'smy what's my likely action? I
(05:43):
sold 100 houses I owned, so youcould have them all at the peak.
I'll see you later. Now that wasan unusual thing. We write a
report in 2006 called the crashthat didn't go over well to the
for the industry, because it'ssupposed to be early, right? So
you can make the right decisionand say, you can get out of here
and do something else. Okay, afew years later, the mood look
(06:05):
where the mood is. It gets to28% the lowest number ever. So
it's on sale. It's half of whatit was before. Did everybody go
get them? No. What did it haveto do to induce sales? Give you
eight grand to buy a house thatwas 60% off. That's the human
(06:28):
nature side of this. So I canlook at this chart and go, Holy
cow. Has it ever been here?
Everybody's scared to death. I'mgoing to buy a lot of those.
This is the greatest cheat sheetthere is in real estate. Now,
what's cool about this, and thisis what Craig is probably going
to start talking about, is we'refinding ways that we can
replicate this chart for otherstates, and that's pretty cool,
(06:50):
and so, and that's not beendone, but this one is a really
great cheat sheet for
Craig Evans (06:58):
Well, one of the things I wanted to touch on this
Bruce Norris (06:58):
Okay, but think about that. That's another
California.
is, I'm looking at this you'retalking about. So we're talking
about 2022, we hit we'rebasically a 68 69% mood for the,
you know, the population thatthey want to buy.
percentage. That's thepercentage of income they have
to spend when they buy one.
Craig Evans (07:16):
Correct.
Bruce Norris (07:17):
Okay, that's a crazy number.
Craig Evans (07:18):
But where was interest rates in 2022?
Bruce Norris (07:20):
it really didn't matter but, but I would say was
what two three correct.
Craig Evans (07:25):
Where are we at in 1980?
Bruce Norris (07:27):
Yeah.
Craig Evans (07:28):
We're 58 and I think it was May of 1980 we hit
18.2%?
Bruce Norris (07:34):
Okay, well, here's another thing that again,
because I did this when I didall the research and laid those
charts on the ground. I wastrying to figure out where to
put my money. So it was, man, anhonest attempt to see what
matters and what does not. Andwhat's very interesting is when
you understand in in my head, Ihave the other charts. So the
(07:54):
volume of sales, when thismoodometer starts heading up and
goes to the peak, you're blowingup sales. You got 450,000 plus
sales in California. When itgets down to the number of it's
on sale from 2009 and 10 and 11and 12, we had to make people to
buy a house, and we were selling200 and 250,000, of them, they
(08:14):
were on sale. And no one wantedbecause it was the mood, was
fear. So this is a human naturechart. And it's a cheat sheet,
because you can do the opposite,or you can get out in time when
people are euphoric. Mike Cantuhad a rental I bought from him.
I told him, okay, I got to keepit for a year. A year later, and
we were still in the peak of agood market, I asked the people
(08:38):
how I want to give you avacation weekend? Okay, so I
bought them a trip to Disney,and they did, they did their
thing, and all I needed was anopen, I just needed a house for
sale at that time, 70 showings,25 offers. Sold it that
afternoon, and made 100 grand.
Thank you very much. That'sCalifornia, sometimes, you know,
it's just one of those thingsthat if you're in a cycle, but
(08:59):
the volume of sales sometimes isthe opposite of what you would
think. It's more expensive, it'smore expensive, it's more
expensive. So we must be sellingless? No. Human Nature says I
want it at the same time. Andthat's the part you start
getting three and four and fiveoffers and the pressure. Can you
imagine being the husband andwife going to shop and you, 'I
(09:22):
love this house, honey, get it'beat out again. How many more
are you going to get beat outon? Are you going to you're
going to finally win one? That'sthe mood
Craig Evans (09:33):
Well, and that's why I wanted to go over this.
And that's why, you know, we'remaking some changes within The
Norris Group. But I wanted toshow like, from 2022 we've got
2% interest rates.
Bruce Norris (09:42):
Right.
Craig Evans (09:43):
1980 we're literally a few points off, and
we're at 18.2% so there's somuch data, and there's so much
content going out now whereeverybody's saying, hey, if the
Feds lower the rates, and all ofa sudden, now the mortgage rates
may push in behind it, because.
The the yield starts to changeon the 10 year. Hey, this
market's going to set on fire.
(10:05):
We've got 40 years of data thatsays that's not necessarily the
truth.
Bruce Norris (10:09):
That's right as a matter of fact.
Craig Evans (10:10):
That's not the indicator.
Bruce Norris (10:11):
Right? And it's actually in another in another
chapter, another report. Wecalibrated what happens after
you start having interest ratedeductions. And in the first
year, sales value goes down.
It's not a pleasant two yearperiod. Why? Because your mood
doesn't change overnight. Justbecause the interest rate went
down, you don't have a wholegroup of going, oh yeah, that's
not what happens.
Craig Evans (10:34):
Well, so where I wanted to get to is because we
got a lot of people that are, Ithink I said this one year,
there's people that got moredegrees than a thermometer
that's in this room, you know.
And I want to get to thosepeople, not me, right? But
here's what I want to tell you,one of the things that when I,
when I took this over, you know,my parent company is called DBL
Unlimited, stands for DouglasBrooke Legacy. So everything
(10:56):
that we talked about was alegacy, right? And Bruce's
legacy was about, he made hismoney off of charts, but his
legacy was, how did he teachinvestors how to do the same
thing? I mean, if I had $1 forevery time I've heard you know,
Tony Alvarez say how much moneyBruce saved him by telling him
when to get out, not just getin. Why? Some of these charts,
(11:18):
right? So here's what we'regoing to do tonight, Joey, if
you can go ahead and turn thison, we're changing the way we're
bringing data to you guys. Sowe're going to bring data to you
now. We've got a digitalplatform that we're launching.
I've got Andrew Falde is heresomewhere, Andrew, can you stand
up for me for a second? Andrewworks for one market. He's my VP
(11:43):
of Capital Markets for me, buthe's also a genius when it comes
to technology. So somehow he andall the people that he works and
employees have created, startedcreating a custom platform where
this stuff over the next fewweeks is going to change and
over the next year is going tobe incredible. The first thing
that we put into this, as Brucesaid, All he's ever done, and
not all, because that was amountain of work. Because Andrew
(12:04):
tried to figure out how you putall this together. Took him
months to figure out. But whathe's always used the moodometer
about was California, becausegetting the data and chasing
that down was just a mountain ofwork. What Andrew and his team
have put together for us iswe've got a national mood or
moodometer, for the first time,being able to put that together,
(12:24):
then out of that. Go. Andrew, sowe got a national mood ometer.
Joey, if you can scroll throughsome of that, so you'll see, so,
here's one of the things thathe's going through, you'll see
we've got everything based incharts. We've got all of the
stuff that Bruce has forCalifornia. We've got all of
(12:45):
that from a nationalperspective, as well as Andrew
them spent months going throughpredictive indexes as well,
starting to say, how do we takethe history that the moodometer
tells us and start to put sixmonth increments of probability
of what's coming. That's a bigplay to start understanding how
to read history of this. Now, asI keep going through that, we've
(13:07):
got the national side of that,then you're able to click over
to our state side. There we go.
We got a completely interactivemap that you'll have, that
you'll be to click on everystate, see what they are, and
then if you click down intothat, it takes you down. It
jumps you actually to the state.
Now there's a lot that'll becoming out of this over the
next, probably the next two tofour weeks, that will even
(13:30):
increase. But here's the thing Iwanted to do, one we're
extremely proud of how we'retaking data and what we're
trying to do with that andgetting it to you guys. Because
my thing is I wanted to follow alegacy of a man that I can't
compete with. So in doing that,I want to make sure that we're
following that legacy andhelping you guys learn how to
make more money and be better atwhat you do in your businesses.
(13:52):
So in a show of appreciation foryou coming tonight, everybody in
the room gets the first sixmonths free on me, so.
I hope you take it. I hope youuse it. I mean literally. I
think the thing that honored melast night but,
Bruce Norris (14:12):
Me too?
Craig Evans (14:13):
You too. Here's the thing last night was the first
time Bruce saw it, and I'm likea five year old school kid
sitting over there nervous,like, Is my dad going to
approve, right? And I could seeBruce, like, right? And he's
studying. And finally, afterabout five minutes, he starts a
little bit of easing, and hestarts to and I'm realizing he
(14:34):
approves, you know. So guys,again, you're going to get, Joey
will make sure that everybodygets access to this. You'll,
we've got promo codes for youguys to have. You'll get all of
that. There's going to be tonsof information coming in this.
And like I say, Andrew and themhave put a lot of work into
(14:55):
that. You'll be able to havethat access to your computer,
through your phone, any digitaldevice. You want. And we're
extremely excited to launch thattonight, and to say, as a gift
from us to you, thank you forspending $200 with us. We want
to give you 600 bucks worth ofstuff coming back to you in our
data, so we appreciate you. Nowwith that, I'm going to kind of
(15:19):
say something else here. No,don't go yet. Don't go yet.
Bruce Norris (15:22):
Oh.
Craig Evans (15:23):
So this year coming up 2026 is the 20th anniversary
of Bruce writing Californiacrash. So that was a report that
he mentioned a little bit agothat really changed how you guys
function in real estate andbeing able to learn. And you
(15:44):
know your your curve went fromhere to this, right? Because of
the the the knowledge that thisman put into a 300 page
document. January the 31st of2026, we will be doing our next
timing seminar. We're announcingthat here tonight, you're the
first ones that know about it.
It'll be a two day event. We'veit's been a long time since
(16:06):
we've been to two days. Thiswill be the 20th anniversary of
California Crash, and it'sbeyond Uncharted. What's next
has never happened. Tell meabout that, Bruce.
Bruce Norris (16:23):
You know, some of the things that are coming our
way have never even consideredon how that's going to impact.
You know, there's some chaptersI can't write because I don't
have an expertise. Anybodyworried about building being
taken over by robots? Okay, wehave a build. So it's very
helpful having discussion withthem. There'll be a chapter
(16:44):
about that. So how far can thatgo and how quickly can it get
there? You know, that's animportant thing that we think
they're all going to get builtby robots in a little while. It
was fun, funny talking to youyesterday, you bring up, hmm,
okay, what about this? Like youhave a storm and water's
everywhere, and your robotshaven't dealt with any of that,
that type of stuff. So that'sjust one little piece of what
(17:07):
we're going to have. We're goingto have a about a day and a half
of it.
Craig Evans (17:11):
Yep.
Bruce Norris (17:11):
And really, the second day will all be all these
things that we have never had toconsider, AI and job
disappearing and things likethat. So there's a half a dozen
of those chapters where I justhave never had to contemplate
that being part of the scenariothat we have to think about the
outcome of what we do. So I'mexcited, because, you know what?
(17:36):
I love writing new chaptersbecause I study my butt off. So
I haven't even written thosechapters, but I've had the
categories I said, that issomething I really need to know.
So that's what's exciting aboutthis report. It'll cover all the
stuff that we've have for years,expand it to a little bit of a
national picture, but then we'llhave a bunch of topics that
(17:57):
we've never had to even thinkabout, that we better think
about. So it'll be fun day and ahalf.
Craig Evans (18:02):
It's gonna be great. Hope you guys will join
us January 31, of 2026 bringyour friends, bring your mom,
bring the milk, man, I don'tcare, but come it's gonna be a
great, great time. And for thefirst time, also, we will be
doing one in Florida inFebruary. So we're excited to be
pushing and growing as a companyand making sure we're continuing
(18:24):
to grow, so.
Bruce Norris (18:25):
All right.
Craig Evans (18:25):
Bruce, thank you, my friend. All right.
Joey Romero (18:34):
Don't forget to visit. I survived real estate
for tickets to the event onFriday, September 12. The Norris
group would like to thank thefollowing gold sponsors,
Keystone CPA, the inland valleysAssociation of Realtors,
Pasadena Phoebe, the North SanDiego real estate investors
Association, LA South Ria,NorCal Ria, The Wizard of the
(18:56):
wobbly box, Andy Teasley,shepherds finance, the Thompson
group, property radar and WhiteHouse catering. The dinner wine
is provided with a generouscontribution by Rick and Leanne
Russell. Hope see you all there.
Narrator (19:10):
For more information on hard money loans, trust deed
investing, and upcoming eventswith The Norris group. Check out
thenorrisgroup.com. For moreinformation on passive investing
through the DBL Capital RealEstate Investment Fund, please
visit dblapital.com.
Joey Romero (19:30):
The Norris Group originates and services loans in
California and Florida underCalifornia DRE license 01219911.
Florida mortgage lender license1577 and NMLS license 1623669.
For more information on hardmoney lending go to
thenorrisgroup.com and click thehard money tab.
Welcome to The Norris Group real estate podcast, a
show committed to bringing youinsights from thought leaders
shaping the real estateindustry. In each episode, we'll
dive into conversations withindustry experts and local
insiders, all aimed at helpingyou thrive in an ever-changing
real estate market. continuingthe legacy that Bruce Norris
(00:24):
created, sharing valuableknowledge, and empowering you on
your real estate journey.
Whether you're a seasoned pro ora newcomer, this is your go-to
source for insider tips, markettrends and success strategies.
Here's your host, Craig Evans.
Joey Romero (00:45):
The Norris Group is proud to present our 18th annual
gala. I Survived Real Estate atThe Nixon Presidential Library
on Friday, September 12. Since2008, our event has raised well
over a million dollars. Thisyear, we'll be raising funds
again from Make-A-Wish OC andIE. Individual Tickets are
available now. To get yourtickets, go to
isurviverealestate.com click thelink here in the card. We would
(01:08):
like to thank the followingplatinum sponsors, uDirectIRA
Services, The San Diego CreativeInvestors Association,
DouglasBrooke Homes, MVTProductions, Realty411, and DBL
Capital.
Craig Evans (01:25):
Talk to you about median household income to
median price. Yeah.
Bruce Norris (01:29):
What's interesting about this is so this has a lot
to do with the current interestrates, let's say. So let's go to
1980 anybody borrow money in1980? I read refinanced my house
at 17 and a half.
Craig Evans (01:42):
Good break. Okay.
Bruce Norris (01:44):
So you were at 4.7 multiplying times your household
income, but your payment wascrazy, because it was an
interest rate that was crazy,but again, so this is just a
history, so this multiple isreally kind of connected to the
interest rate at the time. Sowhat is saying is, remember the
affordability number being 17?
Craig Evans (02:03):
Right.
Bruce Norris (02:04):
Okay, it was 17, let's say in 1980 and say 2004
or five. Well, that multiple,doubled, but it still got to the
affordability number that waseven. So that's how important
interest rates are, because youcan't get to a 10 multiple if
you have an interest rate that'snine.
Craig Evans (02:21):
Right.
Bruce Norris (02:21):
Right. So that's basically what that's telling
you. Is this multiple needs adecent interest rate, or if you
have a crazy interest rate,you're going to be back to four
or five.
Craig Evans (02:37):
Right. Now, here's where I wanted us to land,
because I want to spend a fewminutes here, and this is one of
the things that I've seenthrough this year, is that let
me look at what's this, where Iwant us to see we've got so many
people that talk about this andthat call and ask about it, but
as I hear people ask thequestions, it's it's been
dawning on me. A lot of peopledon't get this chart.
Bruce Norris (02:54):
Okay.
Craig Evans (02:54):
So I want you to dive into why was this your
cheat sheet? You I've heard youuse that term to me over and
over. This was a cheat sheetthat we should all know how to
use. Okay, well, then Bruce,why? Why is that the cheatsheet?
Bruce Norris (03:06):
Yeah, what I renamed it, what this is, is,
what percentage of your incomeare you willing to pay for house
payment? It assumes you have a20% down, and you get the going
interest rate, and so you havean 80% mortgage, and there's
your payment compared to yourearnings. So that's what this
is. I renamed it because it'sreally a calculation of the mood
of the participant. Because ifyou think humans always act the
(03:29):
same, apparently we don't.
What's interesting. First ofall, let's say this that the
direction is most important onthis chart. So if you see you
get close to 70% on your journeyto 70% it's accompanying a lot
of other very positive charts.
When you get done with 70% andlet's say you go all the way to
(03:51):
the end now 2022 and now we'rehovering around 60%, that 60% is
a much different reaction in themarket than when you're in 1998
going towards 60% could you havea progression of mood and you're
going to get to the brink untilthey lenders finally tell you,
'No'. What this is, it takes thetemperature of the participant,
(04:15):
which is most important, howmany guys are getting multiple
offers on what you have for saleright now?
Okay, so the mood is high in anumber, but because, again, this
is the direction is mostimportant. When you were at 60%
going up, you've got multipleoffers on everything, and now
(04:35):
you're not getting it onanything. You know, the only
reason you have a lot ofstability right now is because
we have a base of mortgages thatare two and a half to three and
a half or 4% that tons of peoplehave, and they're not going
anywhere. And we predicted thatin a report, because I had to
cut trying to calibrate that,because we're going to be at a
pretty high moodometer numberfor quite a long time. And I
(04:56):
think the report name was 1%mortgage rates or lost decade,
and we're in the lost decadeperiod because we don't get a 1%
mortgage, there's not going tobe that drop in the mood. You
know, you need to, you need tospread. Doesn't mean we're going
to go down in price, but it doesmean that we've used up a lot of
the room. But here's whathappens a human participant, and
(05:17):
that's why I love this chart,because it allows me to do what
I don't feel like doing. Well,you are in a euphoric mood,
like, say, 2004 and five andsix, when prices are going up
and everything you touch turnsto gold. Don't you feel like
you're a genius? That's great. Iput it up for sale at one for 70
grand more that day. And what'smy what's my likely action? I
(05:43):
sold 100 houses I owned, so youcould have them all at the peak.
I'll see you later. Now that wasan unusual thing. We write a
report in 2006 called the crashthat didn't go over well to the
for the industry, because it'ssupposed to be early, right? So
you can make the right decisionand say, you can get out of here
and do something else. Okay, afew years later, the mood look
(06:05):
where the mood is. It gets to28% the lowest number ever. So
it's on sale. It's half of whatit was before. Did everybody go
get them? No. What did it haveto do to induce sales? Give you
eight grand to buy a house thatwas 60% off. That's the human
(06:28):
nature side of this. So I canlook at this chart and go, Holy
cow. Has it ever been here?
Everybody's scared to death. I'mgoing to buy a lot of those.
This is the greatest cheat sheetthere is in real estate. Now,
what's cool about this, and thisis what Craig is probably going
to start talking about, is we'refinding ways that we can
replicate this chart for otherstates, and that's pretty cool,
(06:50):
and so, and that's not beendone, but this one is a really
great cheat sheet for
Craig Evans (06:58):
Well, one of the things I wanted to touch on this
Bruce Norris (06:58):
Okay, but think about that. That's another
California.
is, I'm looking at this you'retalking about. So we're talking
about 2022, we hit we'rebasically a 68 69% mood for the,
you know, the population thatthey want to buy.
percentage. That's thepercentage of income they have
to spend when they buy one.
Craig Evans (07:16):
Correct.
Bruce Norris (07:17):
Okay, that's a crazy number.
Craig Evans (07:18):
But where was interest rates in 2022?
Bruce Norris (07:20):
it really didn't matter but, but I would say was
what two three correct.
Craig Evans (07:25):
Where are we at in 1980?
Bruce Norris (07:27):
Yeah.
Craig Evans (07:28):
We're 58 and I think it was May of 1980 we hit
18.2%?
Bruce Norris (07:34):
Okay, well, here's another thing that again,
because I did this when I didall the research and laid those
charts on the ground. I wastrying to figure out where to
put my money. So it was, man, anhonest attempt to see what
matters and what does not. Andwhat's very interesting is when
you understand in in my head, Ihave the other charts. So the
(07:54):
volume of sales, when thismoodometer starts heading up and
goes to the peak, you're blowingup sales. You got 450,000 plus
sales in California. When itgets down to the number of it's
on sale from 2009 and 10 and 11and 12, we had to make people to
buy a house, and we were selling200 and 250,000, of them, they
(08:14):
were on sale. And no one wantedbecause it was the mood, was
fear. So this is a human naturechart. And it's a cheat sheet,
because you can do the opposite,or you can get out in time when
people are euphoric. Mike Cantuhad a rental I bought from him.
I told him, okay, I got to keepit for a year. A year later, and
we were still in the peak of agood market, I asked the people
(08:38):
how I want to give you avacation weekend? Okay, so I
bought them a trip to Disney,and they did, they did their
thing, and all I needed was anopen, I just needed a house for
sale at that time, 70 showings,25 offers. Sold it that
afternoon, and made 100 grand.
Thank you very much. That'sCalifornia, sometimes, you know,
it's just one of those thingsthat if you're in a cycle, but
(08:59):
the volume of sales sometimes isthe opposite of what you would
think. It's more expensive, it'smore expensive, it's more
expensive. So we must be sellingless? No. Human Nature says I
want it at the same time. Andthat's the part you start
getting three and four and fiveoffers and the pressure. Can you
imagine being the husband andwife going to shop and you, 'I
(09:22):
love this house, honey, get it'beat out again. How many more
are you going to get beat outon? Are you going to you're
going to finally win one? That'sthe mood
Craig Evans (09:33):
Well, and that's why I wanted to go over this.
And that's why, you know, we'remaking some changes within The
Norris Group. But I wanted toshow like, from 2022 we've got
2% interest rates.
Bruce Norris (09:42):
Right.
Craig Evans (09:43):
1980 we're literally a few points off, and
we're at 18.2% so there's somuch data, and there's so much
content going out now whereeverybody's saying, hey, if the
Feds lower the rates, and all ofa sudden, now the mortgage rates
may push in behind it, because.
The the yield starts to changeon the 10 year. Hey, this
market's going to set on fire.
(10:05):
We've got 40 years of data thatsays that's not necessarily the
truth.
Bruce Norris (10:09):
That's right as a matter of fact.
Craig Evans (10:10):
That's not the indicator.
Bruce Norris (10:11):
Right? And it's actually in another in another
chapter, another report. Wecalibrated what happens after
you start having interest ratedeductions. And in the first
year, sales value goes down.
It's not a pleasant two yearperiod. Why? Because your mood
doesn't change overnight. Justbecause the interest rate went
down, you don't have a wholegroup of going, oh yeah, that's
not what happens.
Craig Evans (10:34):
Well, so where I wanted to get to is because we
got a lot of people that are, Ithink I said this one year,
there's people that got moredegrees than a thermometer
that's in this room, you know.
And I want to get to thosepeople, not me, right? But
here's what I want to tell you,one of the things that when I,
when I took this over, you know,my parent company is called DBL
Unlimited, stands for DouglasBrooke Legacy. So everything
(10:56):
that we talked about was alegacy, right? And Bruce's
legacy was about, he made hismoney off of charts, but his
legacy was, how did he teachinvestors how to do the same
thing? I mean, if I had $1 forevery time I've heard you know,
Tony Alvarez say how much moneyBruce saved him by telling him
when to get out, not just getin. Why? Some of these charts,
(11:18):
right? So here's what we'regoing to do tonight, Joey, if
you can go ahead and turn thison, we're changing the way we're
bringing data to you guys. Sowe're going to bring data to you
now. We've got a digitalplatform that we're launching.
I've got Andrew Falde is heresomewhere, Andrew, can you stand
up for me for a second? Andrewworks for one market. He's my VP
(11:43):
of Capital Markets for me, buthe's also a genius when it comes
to technology. So somehow he andall the people that he works and
employees have created, startedcreating a custom platform where
this stuff over the next fewweeks is going to change and
over the next year is going tobe incredible. The first thing
that we put into this, as Brucesaid, All he's ever done, and
not all, because that was amountain of work. Because Andrew
(12:04):
tried to figure out how you putall this together. Took him
months to figure out. But whathe's always used the moodometer
about was California, becausegetting the data and chasing
that down was just a mountain ofwork. What Andrew and his team
have put together for us iswe've got a national mood or
moodometer, for the first time,being able to put that together,
(12:24):
then out of that. Go. Andrew, sowe got a national mood ometer.
Joey, if you can scroll throughsome of that, so you'll see, so,
here's one of the things thathe's going through, you'll see
we've got everything based incharts. We've got all of the
stuff that Bruce has forCalifornia. We've got all of
(12:45):
that from a nationalperspective, as well as Andrew
them spent months going throughpredictive indexes as well,
starting to say, how do we takethe history that the moodometer
tells us and start to put sixmonth increments of probability
of what's coming. That's a bigplay to start understanding how
to read history of this. Now, asI keep going through that, we've
(13:07):
got the national side of that,then you're able to click over
to our state side. There we go.
We got a completely interactivemap that you'll have, that
you'll be to click on everystate, see what they are, and
then if you click down intothat, it takes you down. It
jumps you actually to the state.
Now there's a lot that'll becoming out of this over the
next, probably the next two tofour weeks, that will even
(13:30):
increase. But here's the thing Iwanted to do, one we're
extremely proud of how we'retaking data and what we're
trying to do with that andgetting it to you guys. Because
my thing is I wanted to follow alegacy of a man that I can't
compete with. So in doing that,I want to make sure that we're
following that legacy andhelping you guys learn how to
make more money and be better atwhat you do in your businesses.
(13:52):
So in a show of appreciation foryou coming tonight, everybody in
the room gets the first sixmonths free on me, so.
I hope you take it. I hope youuse it. I mean literally. I
think the thing that honored melast night but,
Bruce Norris (14:12):
Me too?
Craig Evans (14:13):
You too. Here's the thing last night was the first
time Bruce saw it, and I'm likea five year old school kid
sitting over there nervous,like, Is my dad going to
approve, right? And I could seeBruce, like, right? And he's
studying. And finally, afterabout five minutes, he starts a
little bit of easing, and hestarts to and I'm realizing he
(14:34):
approves, you know. So guys,again, you're going to get, Joey
will make sure that everybodygets access to this. You'll,
we've got promo codes for youguys to have. You'll get all of
that. There's going to be tonsof information coming in this.
And like I say, Andrew and themhave put a lot of work into
(14:55):
that. You'll be able to havethat access to your computer,
through your phone, any digitaldevice. You want. And we're
extremely excited to launch thattonight, and to say, as a gift
from us to you, thank you forspending $200 with us. We want
to give you 600 bucks worth ofstuff coming back to you in our
data, so we appreciate you. Nowwith that, I'm going to kind of
(15:19):
say something else here. No,don't go yet. Don't go yet.
Bruce Norris (15:22):
Oh.
Craig Evans (15:23):
So this year coming up 2026 is the 20th anniversary
of Bruce writing Californiacrash. So that was a report that
he mentioned a little bit agothat really changed how you guys
function in real estate andbeing able to learn. And you
(15:44):
know your your curve went fromhere to this, right? Because of
the the the knowledge that thisman put into a 300 page
document. January the 31st of2026, we will be doing our next
timing seminar. We're announcingthat here tonight, you're the
first ones that know about it.
It'll be a two day event. We'veit's been a long time since
(16:06):
we've been to two days. Thiswill be the 20th anniversary of
California Crash, and it'sbeyond Uncharted. What's next
has never happened. Tell meabout that, Bruce.
Bruce Norris (16:23):
You know, some of the things that are coming our
way have never even consideredon how that's going to impact.
You know, there's some chaptersI can't write because I don't
have an expertise. Anybodyworried about building being
taken over by robots? Okay, wehave a build. So it's very
helpful having discussion withthem. There'll be a chapter
(16:44):
about that. So how far can thatgo and how quickly can it get
there? You know, that's animportant thing that we think
they're all going to get builtby robots in a little while. It
was fun, funny talking to youyesterday, you bring up, hmm,
okay, what about this? Like youhave a storm and water's
everywhere, and your robotshaven't dealt with any of that,
that type of stuff. So that'sjust one little piece of what
(17:07):
we're going to have. We're goingto have a about a day and a half
of it.
Craig Evans (17:11):
Yep.
Bruce Norris (17:11):
And really, the second day will all be all these
things that we have never had toconsider, AI and job
disappearing and things likethat. So there's a half a dozen
of those chapters where I justhave never had to contemplate
that being part of the scenariothat we have to think about the
outcome of what we do. So I'mexcited, because, you know what?
(17:36):
I love writing new chaptersbecause I study my butt off. So
I haven't even written thosechapters, but I've had the
categories I said, that issomething I really need to know.
So that's what's exciting aboutthis report. It'll cover all the
stuff that we've have for years,expand it to a little bit of a
national picture, but then we'llhave a bunch of topics that
(17:57):
we've never had to even thinkabout, that we better think
about. So it'll be fun day and ahalf.
Craig Evans (18:02):
It's gonna be great. Hope you guys will join
us January 31, of 2026 bringyour friends, bring your mom,
bring the milk, man, I don'tcare, but come it's gonna be a
great, great time. And for thefirst time, also, we will be
doing one in Florida inFebruary. So we're excited to be
pushing and growing as a companyand making sure we're continuing
(18:24):
to grow, so.
Bruce Norris (18:25):
All right.
Craig Evans (18:25):
Bruce, thank you, my friend. All right.
Joey Romero (18:34):
Don't forget to visit. I survived real estate
for tickets to the event onFriday, September 12. The Norris
group would like to thank thefollowing gold sponsors,
Keystone CPA, the inland valleysAssociation of Realtors,
Pasadena Phoebe, the North SanDiego real estate investors
Association, LA South Ria,NorCal Ria, The Wizard of the
(18:56):
wobbly box, Andy Teasley,shepherds finance, the Thompson
group, property radar and WhiteHouse catering. The dinner wine
is provided with a generouscontribution by Rick and Leanne
Russell. Hope see you all there.
Narrator (19:10):
For more information on hard money loans, trust deed
investing, and upcoming eventswith The Norris group. Check out
thenorrisgroup.com. For moreinformation on passive investing
through the DBL Capital RealEstate Investment Fund, please
visit dblapital.com.
Joey Romero (19:30):
The Norris Group originates and services loans in
California and Florida underCalifornia DRE license 01219911.
Florida mortgage lender license1577 and NMLS license 1623669.
For more information on hardmoney lending go to
thenorrisgroup.com and click thehard money tab.
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