November 7, 2025 • 20 mins
I SURVIVED REAL ESTATE 2025
The Norris Group Presents: The 18th Annual I Survived Real Estate – LIVE at the Nixon Presidential Library
The Norris Group’s award-winning black-tie gala, I Survived Real Estate, returns for its 18th year. Since 2008, I Survived Real Estate has supported Make-A-Wish OC & IE—and thanks to your generosity, we’ve now raised over $1.2 million for children in need
This year’s backdrop?
A California housing market still starved for inventory, mortgage rates hovering above comfort zones, affordability hitting generational lows, inflation and tariffs. Add in global uncertainty, sticky inflation, and the ever-watchful eye of the Federal Reserve—and you’ve got a landscape full of questions.
- Inventory Drought: California’s housing supply remains critically low
- Rate Pressure: Mortgage rates linger well above buyer comfort zones
- Priced Out: Affordability has collapsed to generational lows
- Global Tensions: War, tariffs, and instability rattle investor confidence
- Inflation’s Grip: Costs remain stubbornly high, squeezing margins
- Tariff Troubles: Rising import costs could ripple through construction and development
- All Eyes on the Fed: Every rate hint could send shockwaves through the market
Our expert panel brings top minds in economics, investing, and housing to help us prepare for what’s next. I Survived Real Estate was born from crisis, with a mission to unite thought leaders, give back, and guide our industry forward.
In this episode:
- Bruce Norris and Tony Alvarez share their insights on market timing and how investors can make smarter moves in changing conditions.
- Expert predictions on where the real estate market is heading through 2025 and into 2026.
- Final reflections from our panel on lessons learned, future outlooks, and the mindset needed to thrive in any market.
The Norris Group originates and services loans in California and Florida under California DRE License 01219911, Florida Mortgage Lender License 1577, and NMLS License 1623669. For more information on hard money lending, go www.thenorrisgroup.com and click the Hard Money tab.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Narrator (00:01):
Welcome to The Norris Group real estate podcast, a
show committed to bringing youinsights from thought leaders
shaping the real estateindustry. In each episode, we'll
dive into conversations withindustry experts and local
insiders, all aimed at helpingyou thrive in an ever-changing
real estate market. continuingthe legacy that Bruce Norris
(00:24):
created, sharing valuableknowledge, and empowering you on
your real estate journey.
Whether you're a seasoned pro ora newcomer, this is your go-to
source for insider tips, markettrends and success strategies.
Here's your host, Craig Evans.
Joey Romero (00:45):
The Norris Group is proud to present our 18th annual
gala. I Survived Real Estate atThe Nixon Presidential Library
on Friday, September 12. Since2008, our event has raised well
over a million dollars. Thisyear, we'll be raising funds
again from Make-A-Wish OC andIE. Individual Tickets are
available now. To get yourtickets, go to
isurviverealestate.com click thelink here in the card. We would
(01:08):
like to thank the followingplatinum sponsors, uDirectIRA
Services, The San Diego CreativeInvestors Association,
DouglasBrooke Homes, MVTProductions, Realty411, and DBL
Capital.
Bruce Norris (01:25):
Here's the funny end of that story. So the cycle
ends, and now I call it...
Tony Alvarez (01:30):
Houses he sold for like 300 grand at the peak of
the market, and out in themiddle of the desert nowhere,
Bruce Norris (01:36):
So I call him up as they go, okay, Tony. Pull the
plug. Get rid of them. He'slike, Okay, how many? How many
of these do I have to sell amonth? Like, I've got, I said...
Tony Alvarez (01:49):
I wanted a specific date.
Bruce Norris (01:51):
...I said, 'It's time'.
Tony Alvarez (01:55):
But I want you to know, follow the bouncing ball,
the houses that he built therewere, like, I don't know. Some
of them sold for like, 375,00,350. I forget what the heck it
was. It's crazy numbers out inRosamond, which I don't know. If
you guys don't know where thatis, it's a good thing. You don't
know there's only one off rampoff in that place. And I don't
even know where it goes.
Anyways, I bought a lot of thosehouses back for 30 grand, like,
(02:17):
a year, two years, whatever theheck it was.
Bruce Norris (02:22):
Yeah, they sold at the peak, they sold for 300
grand.
Tony Alvarez (02:22):
For 300 grand.
Bruce Norris (02:22):
Yeah, and buy it for 30.
Tony Alvarez (02:25):
30 grand. I used to send him the pictures of the
thing. I'd say, 'Got anotherone. Hey, I like the roof on
this one'.
Bruce Norris (02:35):
Okay. This is how important timing is. So somebody
had created 120 lots in thatarea in like 1980.
Tony Alvarez (02:45):
Right.
Bruce Norris (02:46):
'80. '85, something like that. I bought
those for, Now, This is afinished building lot, single,
loaded with streets and sewersand everything for three grand,
a lot, and I just held them,waiting for the charts to tell
me I had time to build them outand I would sell them close to
the peak of the price. So that'swhy I drug my feet. And at that
(03:08):
same time, Tony was saying 'Igot to get out of here'. I said,
'Well, that's interestingdecision, because I'm waiting
intentionally, because I cantell you and that what I was
looking for, one of theimportant things is migration'.
And there's a silly way tounderstand where migration is
going. Price out of U-Haul, nota U-, yeah, U-Haul, going from
(03:29):
like Lancaster to somewhere, andthat somewhere back to
Lancaster, the price will be 10times in one direction, because
when it lands in Lancaster andeverybody's migrating there,
that truck has nowhere to go. Ithas to be, you know, driven by
(03:51):
anyway, so that tells you wherepeople are going. So I watched
that, and I drag my feet andstarted when I knew there was
time for the affordability, andso we maxed that out, but that,
you know, that was, like, verystrategic. And Tony met me at
about, and it was kind of fun,you know, because I was like,
I'm doing the opposite of whatyou think is the best, you know.
(04:14):
Okay.
Craig Evans (04:14):
All right, so as we start to final out, I'm going to
change directions here. I wantto hear the one of the things
that I want to hear that wedon't often do, that I'm hoping
you guys will put up with me on,is, what do you see and predict
for the rest of this year andinto 2026? Whether it's
(04:38):
economics, whether it's housing,what do you see for predictions
for the state of our country andour and our economy and our
housing market? Why don't westart with Doug, and we'll just
work our way straight downthrough that.
Doug Duncan (04:51):
I know nothing about prediction. Except for
three rules, right? First ofall, in terms of what's to be
optimistic, every human being onthe planet puts their head down
on a piece of real estate ofsome type every night. So real
(05:15):
estate's always part of thehuman condition, so you're in a
business that's essential forthe human condition, so that you
can always be optimistic aboutthat. Trends come and go, but to
me, that's why I stayed in realestate all my career. For the
rest of this year, there'll be apickup in refinancing,
(05:39):
obviously. There's a lot offolks that have seven to 8%
mortgages, and the mortgagerates now down around six and a
quarter. So you're going to seestories about pickups in
refinance activity. But I thinksales will be relatively flat
for the rest of the year andinto next year. I think the
(06:01):
Bruce is absolutely right. Ittakes time for people to make,
to conclude that the potentialof things staying in the future
state that it's heading for issustainable enough for them to
take the risk to make a moverelative to that trend line. So
I think it will take some timeto build momentum.
Oscar Wei (06:24):
I think one thing that we probably can be certain
about is there will be a lotmore uncertainty. That's for
sure. But you know, I do believethat even though we are have
seen maybe in the last fewweeks, interest rates have come
down since the beginning ofAugust. I do think there might
be still a little bit morefluctuation in terms of interest
(06:46):
rates. But by the end of theyear, I do, I still think that
it's going to be maybe a littlebit below what we're at right
now, just a little bit, not, notsignificantly lower. So let's
say, if you look at the MortgageNews Daily numbers, it's at 6.3
right now, it could be somewherearound 6.2. I also agree with
Bruce that, you know, sales, Isaid it earlier, sales, it will
(07:10):
improve, but it's not going tochange a whole lot, because, you
know, fluctuations of interestrate is going to continue. But I
do believe that I asked alsomentioned earlier, we have seen
three consecutive months ofdecline and price, but I do
believe that it's going to startinching up, inching up, not, you
know, not surging, inching up,but you know, it's, we're way
(07:34):
past, you know, the peak pricefor this year. Peak price for
this year was, you know, April2025, so we still see some
inching up. As far as optimism,I think you can see, you know,
(07:55):
whether it be general consumeroptimism or as well as housing
sentiment, they could beactually seeing in different
directions. Like today, earliertoday, I think consumer
sentiment actually dipped alittle bit. But if you look at
the housing sentiment, itactually might start picking up
slightly. Of course, it dependson how things go for interest
(08:16):
rates, as far as well as youknow, price go. But I think it
could start picking up a littlebit, but I don't think, again,
it's not going to see asignificant surge. Think it's
going to take some time forthings to grow, but I do see a
little bit of positive towardsthe end of the year. Hopefully
you'll build on it, and then2026 will be a little bit
(08:38):
better.
Dan Wallach (08:38):
Okay, I think my view on things is that if you
look at the upper level homes,you know, the homes that people
buy that don't really worryabout mortgage payment, not
saying they don't have one, butjust saying they don't worry
about it, I think that market isgoing to be good through the end
of next year. I think the midmarket is going to be difficult
(09:02):
until the, you know, middle ofnext year. And then I think that
market will start to have valueincrease and demand increase.
And then I think the lowermarket, you know, which is the
starter home market, is going tobe good for a while. I would be,
(09:22):
you know, a little scared of atthe end of next year, of where
that is, because it's more aboutthe comparison between rent and
what you can get something forif you own it. And I'm not
really sure that rents are goingto continue to rise forever. So
I guess my view would be, ingeneral, housing starts go up in
(09:43):
the second half of next year,and that'll coincide with some
sort of nice situation, at leastin the mid level houses of
pricing.
Tony Alvarez (09:57):
I'll defer to you.
Bruce Norris (09:59):
Okay, all right.
Craig Evans (10:01):
That's only if you're closing. You don't get to
take all night.
Tony Alvarez (10:04):
No, no, I'm not.
Craig Evans (10:06):
Okay.
Bruce Norris (10:07):
I forgot the question.
Tony Alvarez (10:10):
...I'm gonna used up here. I know if I like this.
Bruce Norris (10:14):
I'm gonna tell a real estate story.
Tony Alvarez (10:16):
Picked on the Hispanic guy night.
Bruce Norris (10:17):
So in 2006 I write a report called the California
Crash. And I made a phone callthe guy that had a really good
rental, and we had aconversation, and I told him,
I'm not your typical rental. Paya year in advance. And he said,
'That sounds really great, doyou mind if I ask you a
question?' I said, 'Oh, goahead'. He said, 'Do you have
(10:38):
any pets?' And there was apause, and I remembered why I
was a homeowner, that no one gotto ask me that question. And I
said, 'I'm so glad you askedthat question, because I forgot
that I don't want anybody to getto ask that anymore'. So I
probably sold that house forfour or $500,000 less because I
sold it a few years later, and Icould care less. I put that kind
(11:03):
of weight on home ownershipbecause I got married at 17 when
I bought my first home and mowedmy grass for the first time, I
cried. I felt like a man. Sothat's what home ownership means
to me. It's not a math formula.
And I think a lot of people needto think that way. You know that
(11:25):
that that's a big deal. And Ididn't care about losing the
money. Once I realized that'swhat it meant to me, I wasn't
going anywhere. So I just wantedto tell that story.
Pete Fortunato (11:37):
I think there's going to be continuing problems
for people, and when they have aproblem, whatever that might be,
whatever that problem might be,that problem gives you an
opportunity. I've boughtproperties because people have
had a job transfer and the housethat they loved became an
(12:01):
anchor, keeping them fromtraveling 1000 miles to take the
better job. I've bought housesfrom people whose doctors said
you can't do stairs any longer,and I traded that lady a condo
in an elevated building so shecould stay in the community, and
I got a nice house, but it wasthe problem of the doctor saying
(12:21):
'you can't do stairs', thatmeant that house became
available. It was the problem orthe opportunity to go take
another job. I talked last nightabout the lady who called me and
said, 12 years ago, my daughtercame to visit me here in
Florida, and she's still here.
And in order to get her house,what I had to do was get her
(12:44):
daughter, her sister, out of herhouse so she could then go marry
the guy who wanted to marry herbut did not want her sister to
come with her. Well, those areproblems. They're very real
problems, and they're not thingsthat get covered in the national
numbers. They're a veryimportant emotional situation
(13:08):
that people are struggling with,and if you care enough, you can
help other people. The big dealyou have is you have to promise
yourself that you're going tolive your life so you can be
proud and you can go out andmake a difference in the lives
of others and make a differencefor yourself. Or when my
(13:30):
grandson, when he was only nine,said to me, 'Grampy, what do you
do anyway?' I said, 'Luca, weacquire nice houses in nice
neighborhoods that we rent tonice people who take care of
those houses and pay us to livethere'. And he said, 'That's a
(13:52):
good idea'. And I said, 'That'sright, but you can be telling
your children those things. Youhave a responsibility to pass it
on, to pass it down, and tobring other people along with
you. You've walked this trailahead of them, and your job is
to build a life you can be proudof your life is your fault. You
(14:17):
need to tell people that youneed to feel that, and you can
go out and make a difference inthe world and we do it one
person at a time, as we helppeople with problems, one family
at a time'.
Bruce Norris (14:33):
Very cool.
Craig Evans (14:36):
All right, I'm gonna give you the opportunity.
Tony Alvarez (14:38):
No, no, no, I'm gonna, I'm gonna make it short,
okay? Because basically, when itcomes to market timing and
figuring out, what do I know,what's going to happen this
year? I don't have a clue. Okay,all I know is, like, like, at
the beginning, when you askedthe first question, you know
what happened? He said, what didDoug say? Yeah, today is gonna
go up or down. It's one of thetwo, right? So for me, I have
(15:05):
the same fears as everybodyelse. I mean, you just heard
Bruce say that somebody who'svery well respected and who
doesn't take his own opinion toolightly said interest rates
could be at nine or 10% within30 months or so, right, right? I
mean, that's enough to make youwant to move to the moon. But I
still got to do business in myarea, so I still got to figure
(15:27):
out a way around all and I dealwith this stuff every day. I go
to my bank. I deal with twobanks in my area. I visit them
every week. It, they have a cupof free coffee, maybe sometimes
cookies. You know, lot ofcookies. Okay, but so I don't
know what's coming, but I know Ican handle and I can weather
(15:48):
whatever it is that's going tohappen. Peter, if you've been
listening to everything Petersaid tonight, he doesn't, I know
he knows everything about theinterest rates, everything about
the interest rates, everythingelse is going on, but I don't
think he cares. He's out therecreating his own markets. Every
each one of us can do the samething in the same markets. I
hope you're paying attentionthere, Glenn.Bruce, if I want to
(16:08):
know about market timing, I'mcoming to The Norris Group.
That's it. And I hope you heardthat loud and clear, because the
majority of the growth in thewealth that I have had was
created as a result of myrelationship with Bruce Norris
and The Norris Group, period. Ican't say anything else about
that, it's the truth. And youknow, it's the truth. I chased
(16:31):
you around like a nutcase,right? Anything he said. I wrote
it down. I went and I didsomething. I took action. Take
action. Glenn, if you fall onyour face, just get up and keep
doing it again and again andagain. I guess that's it. It's
all I gotta say. And Iappreciate you guys inviting me
here, because I am like, I amlike, so all classed and bold.
(16:52):
Tell you what.
Bruce Norris (16:53):
Yeah.
Tony Alvarez (16:53):
This is something else. This is something, the
Cuban kid, no, 10 million wasthe first step I got. I got way
more money. Well, that's anotherstory. That's a whole other
story, though. Anyways, thankyou.
Craig Evans (17:07):
Tell you, if you will, if you give these
gentlemen a hand. It's an honorto stand up here and to be with
men like this and last year,women like this and and to be
(17:27):
able to teach and to try to helpothers grow in their career. You
know, as I was preparing forthis, obviously, there's a lot
of things that's happened in ourworld, in our country in the
last few days that have madethings a little heavier, of how
we deal with people. And one ofthe things that has struck me is
(17:48):
we can talk about interestrates. We can talk about, you
know, how do we negotiate? Wecan talk about the deal, what
the house looks like, on and onand on. But one of the
interesting strategies, if we'rehonest and we listen, is that
it's about people. And what Isaw this week in our in our
(18:12):
world, in our country, is thatwe're becoming a group of people
that are willing to turn aroundand choose death instead of
life. My hope for us as a groupof people, and for the industry
that we're all so passionateabout, whether we're realtors,
whether we're investors, whetherdevelopers, Business Owners
(18:32):
,helping people invest throughIRAs, everything that we do. My
hope and prayer is that weactually give a crap about the
people next to us. We may notlike them, there's a lot of
people I don't like, but I stillchoose to help. My hope and
prayer is that as a group ofpeople, if you're paying
(18:55):
attention to what we do with TheNorris Group and with everything
else that we've got, my hope andprayer is that you'll see we
want to be a group of people,and I hope that's you, that if
we say we bleed red, white andblue, that we will bleed that
and, but in that process, wewill care about the people
around us. But all that, I say,Thank you for the day, thank you
(19:18):
for the evening, and we'll seeyou next year. Thank you guys.
Joey Romero (19:33):
Don't forget to visit isurvivedrealestate.com
for tickets to the event onFriday, September 12. The Norris
Group would like to thank thefollowing Gold sponsors,
Keystone CPA, The Inland ValleysAssociation of Realtors,
Pasadena FIBI, The North SanDiego Real Estate Investors
Association, LA south REIA,NorCal REIA, The Wizard of the
(19:55):
Wobbly Box, Andy Teasley,Shepherd's Finance, The Thompson
Group, PropertyRadar and WhiteHouse Catering. The dinner wine
is provided with a generouscontribution by Rick and Leanne
Rossiter. Hope see you allthere.
Narrator (20:09):
For more information on hard money loans, trust deed
investing, and upcoming eventswith The Norris group. Check out
thenorrisgroup.com. For moreinformation on passive investing
through the DBL Capital RealEstate Investment Fund, please
visit dblapital.com.
Joey Romero (20:29):
The Norris Group originates and services loans in
California and Florida underCalifornia DRE license 01219911.
Florida mortgage lender license1577 and NMLS license 1623669.
For more information on hardmoney lending go to
thenorrisgroup.com and click thehard money tab.
Welcome to The Norris Group real estate podcast, a
show committed to bringing youinsights from thought leaders
shaping the real estateindustry. In each episode, we'll
dive into conversations withindustry experts and local
insiders, all aimed at helpingyou thrive in an ever-changing
real estate market. continuingthe legacy that Bruce Norris
(00:24):
created, sharing valuableknowledge, and empowering you on
your real estate journey.
Whether you're a seasoned pro ora newcomer, this is your go-to
source for insider tips, markettrends and success strategies.
Here's your host, Craig Evans.
Joey Romero (00:45):
The Norris Group is proud to present our 18th annual
gala. I Survived Real Estate atThe Nixon Presidential Library
on Friday, September 12. Since2008, our event has raised well
over a million dollars. Thisyear, we'll be raising funds
again from Make-A-Wish OC andIE. Individual Tickets are
available now. To get yourtickets, go to
isurviverealestate.com click thelink here in the card. We would
(01:08):
like to thank the followingplatinum sponsors, uDirectIRA
Services, The San Diego CreativeInvestors Association,
DouglasBrooke Homes, MVTProductions, Realty411, and DBL
Capital.
Bruce Norris (01:25):
Here's the funny end of that story. So the cycle
ends, and now I call it...
Tony Alvarez (01:30):
Houses he sold for like 300 grand at the peak of
the market, and out in themiddle of the desert nowhere,
Bruce Norris (01:36):
So I call him up as they go, okay, Tony. Pull the
plug. Get rid of them. He'slike, Okay, how many? How many
of these do I have to sell amonth? Like, I've got, I said...
Tony Alvarez (01:49):
I wanted a specific date.
Bruce Norris (01:51):
...I said, 'It's time'.
Tony Alvarez (01:55):
But I want you to know, follow the bouncing ball,
the houses that he built therewere, like, I don't know. Some
of them sold for like, 375,00,350. I forget what the heck it
was. It's crazy numbers out inRosamond, which I don't know. If
you guys don't know where thatis, it's a good thing. You don't
know there's only one off rampoff in that place. And I don't
even know where it goes.
Anyways, I bought a lot of thosehouses back for 30 grand, like,
(02:17):
a year, two years, whatever theheck it was.
Bruce Norris (02:22):
Yeah, they sold at the peak, they sold for 300
grand.
Tony Alvarez (02:22):
For 300 grand.
Bruce Norris (02:22):
Yeah, and buy it for 30.
Tony Alvarez (02:25):
30 grand. I used to send him the pictures of the
thing. I'd say, 'Got anotherone. Hey, I like the roof on
this one'.
Bruce Norris (02:35):
Okay. This is how important timing is. So somebody
had created 120 lots in thatarea in like 1980.
Tony Alvarez (02:45):
Right.
Bruce Norris (02:46):
'80. '85, something like that. I bought
those for, Now, This is afinished building lot, single,
loaded with streets and sewersand everything for three grand,
a lot, and I just held them,waiting for the charts to tell
me I had time to build them outand I would sell them close to
the peak of the price. So that'swhy I drug my feet. And at that
(03:08):
same time, Tony was saying 'Igot to get out of here'. I said,
'Well, that's interestingdecision, because I'm waiting
intentionally, because I cantell you and that what I was
looking for, one of theimportant things is migration'.
And there's a silly way tounderstand where migration is
going. Price out of U-Haul, nota U-, yeah, U-Haul, going from
(03:29):
like Lancaster to somewhere, andthat somewhere back to
Lancaster, the price will be 10times in one direction, because
when it lands in Lancaster andeverybody's migrating there,
that truck has nowhere to go. Ithas to be, you know, driven by
(03:51):
anyway, so that tells you wherepeople are going. So I watched
that, and I drag my feet andstarted when I knew there was
time for the affordability, andso we maxed that out, but that,
you know, that was, like, verystrategic. And Tony met me at
about, and it was kind of fun,you know, because I was like,
I'm doing the opposite of whatyou think is the best, you know.
(04:14):
Okay.
Craig Evans (04:14):
All right, so as we start to final out, I'm going to
change directions here. I wantto hear the one of the things
that I want to hear that wedon't often do, that I'm hoping
you guys will put up with me on,is, what do you see and predict
for the rest of this year andinto 2026? Whether it's
(04:38):
economics, whether it's housing,what do you see for predictions
for the state of our country andour and our economy and our
housing market? Why don't westart with Doug, and we'll just
work our way straight downthrough that.
Doug Duncan (04:51):
I know nothing about prediction. Except for
three rules, right? First ofall, in terms of what's to be
optimistic, every human being onthe planet puts their head down
on a piece of real estate ofsome type every night. So real
(05:15):
estate's always part of thehuman condition, so you're in a
business that's essential forthe human condition, so that you
can always be optimistic aboutthat. Trends come and go, but to
me, that's why I stayed in realestate all my career. For the
rest of this year, there'll be apickup in refinancing,
(05:39):
obviously. There's a lot offolks that have seven to 8%
mortgages, and the mortgagerates now down around six and a
quarter. So you're going to seestories about pickups in
refinance activity. But I thinksales will be relatively flat
for the rest of the year andinto next year. I think the
(06:01):
Bruce is absolutely right. Ittakes time for people to make,
to conclude that the potentialof things staying in the future
state that it's heading for issustainable enough for them to
take the risk to make a moverelative to that trend line. So
I think it will take some timeto build momentum.
Oscar Wei (06:24):
I think one thing that we probably can be certain
about is there will be a lotmore uncertainty. That's for
sure. But you know, I do believethat even though we are have
seen maybe in the last fewweeks, interest rates have come
down since the beginning ofAugust. I do think there might
be still a little bit morefluctuation in terms of interest
(06:46):
rates. But by the end of theyear, I do, I still think that
it's going to be maybe a littlebit below what we're at right
now, just a little bit, not, notsignificantly lower. So let's
say, if you look at the MortgageNews Daily numbers, it's at 6.3
right now, it could be somewherearound 6.2. I also agree with
Bruce that, you know, sales, Isaid it earlier, sales, it will
(07:10):
improve, but it's not going tochange a whole lot, because, you
know, fluctuations of interestrate is going to continue. But I
do believe that I asked alsomentioned earlier, we have seen
three consecutive months ofdecline and price, but I do
believe that it's going to startinching up, inching up, not, you
know, not surging, inching up,but you know, it's, we're way
(07:34):
past, you know, the peak pricefor this year. Peak price for
this year was, you know, April2025, so we still see some
inching up. As far as optimism,I think you can see, you know,
(07:55):
whether it be general consumeroptimism or as well as housing
sentiment, they could beactually seeing in different
directions. Like today, earliertoday, I think consumer
sentiment actually dipped alittle bit. But if you look at
the housing sentiment, itactually might start picking up
slightly. Of course, it dependson how things go for interest
(08:16):
rates, as far as well as youknow, price go. But I think it
could start picking up a littlebit, but I don't think, again,
it's not going to see asignificant surge. Think it's
going to take some time forthings to grow, but I do see a
little bit of positive towardsthe end of the year. Hopefully
you'll build on it, and then2026 will be a little bit
(08:38):
better.
Dan Wallach (08:38):
Okay, I think my view on things is that if you
look at the upper level homes,you know, the homes that people
buy that don't really worryabout mortgage payment, not
saying they don't have one, butjust saying they don't worry
about it, I think that market isgoing to be good through the end
of next year. I think the midmarket is going to be difficult
(09:02):
until the, you know, middle ofnext year. And then I think that
market will start to have valueincrease and demand increase.
And then I think the lowermarket, you know, which is the
starter home market, is going tobe good for a while. I would be,
(09:22):
you know, a little scared of atthe end of next year, of where
that is, because it's more aboutthe comparison between rent and
what you can get something forif you own it. And I'm not
really sure that rents are goingto continue to rise forever. So
I guess my view would be, ingeneral, housing starts go up in
(09:43):
the second half of next year,and that'll coincide with some
sort of nice situation, at leastin the mid level houses of
pricing.
Tony Alvarez (09:57):
I'll defer to you.
Bruce Norris (09:59):
Okay, all right.
Craig Evans (10:01):
That's only if you're closing. You don't get to
take all night.
Tony Alvarez (10:04):
No, no, I'm not.
Craig Evans (10:06):
Okay.
Bruce Norris (10:07):
I forgot the question.
Tony Alvarez (10:10):
...I'm gonna used up here. I know if I like this.
Bruce Norris (10:14):
I'm gonna tell a real estate story.
Tony Alvarez (10:16):
Picked on the Hispanic guy night.
Bruce Norris (10:17):
So in 2006 I write a report called the California
Crash. And I made a phone callthe guy that had a really good
rental, and we had aconversation, and I told him,
I'm not your typical rental. Paya year in advance. And he said,
'That sounds really great, doyou mind if I ask you a
question?' I said, 'Oh, goahead'. He said, 'Do you have
(10:38):
any pets?' And there was apause, and I remembered why I
was a homeowner, that no one gotto ask me that question. And I
said, 'I'm so glad you askedthat question, because I forgot
that I don't want anybody to getto ask that anymore'. So I
probably sold that house forfour or $500,000 less because I
sold it a few years later, and Icould care less. I put that kind
(11:03):
of weight on home ownershipbecause I got married at 17 when
I bought my first home and mowedmy grass for the first time, I
cried. I felt like a man. Sothat's what home ownership means
to me. It's not a math formula.
And I think a lot of people needto think that way. You know that
(11:25):
that that's a big deal. And Ididn't care about losing the
money. Once I realized that'swhat it meant to me, I wasn't
going anywhere. So I just wantedto tell that story.
Pete Fortunato (11:37):
I think there's going to be continuing problems
for people, and when they have aproblem, whatever that might be,
whatever that problem might be,that problem gives you an
opportunity. I've boughtproperties because people have
had a job transfer and the housethat they loved became an
(12:01):
anchor, keeping them fromtraveling 1000 miles to take the
better job. I've bought housesfrom people whose doctors said
you can't do stairs any longer,and I traded that lady a condo
in an elevated building so shecould stay in the community, and
I got a nice house, but it wasthe problem of the doctor saying
(12:21):
'you can't do stairs', thatmeant that house became
available. It was the problem orthe opportunity to go take
another job. I talked last nightabout the lady who called me and
said, 12 years ago, my daughtercame to visit me here in
Florida, and she's still here.
And in order to get her house,what I had to do was get her
(12:44):
daughter, her sister, out of herhouse so she could then go marry
the guy who wanted to marry herbut did not want her sister to
come with her. Well, those areproblems. They're very real
problems, and they're not thingsthat get covered in the national
numbers. They're a veryimportant emotional situation
(13:08):
that people are struggling with,and if you care enough, you can
help other people. The big dealyou have is you have to promise
yourself that you're going tolive your life so you can be
proud and you can go out andmake a difference in the lives
of others and make a differencefor yourself. Or when my
(13:30):
grandson, when he was only nine,said to me, 'Grampy, what do you
do anyway?' I said, 'Luca, weacquire nice houses in nice
neighborhoods that we rent tonice people who take care of
those houses and pay us to livethere'. And he said, 'That's a
(13:52):
good idea'. And I said, 'That'sright, but you can be telling
your children those things. Youhave a responsibility to pass it
on, to pass it down, and tobring other people along with
you. You've walked this trailahead of them, and your job is
to build a life you can be proudof your life is your fault. You
(14:17):
need to tell people that youneed to feel that, and you can
go out and make a difference inthe world and we do it one
person at a time, as we helppeople with problems, one family
at a time'.
Bruce Norris (14:33):
Very cool.
Craig Evans (14:36):
All right, I'm gonna give you the opportunity.
Tony Alvarez (14:38):
No, no, no, I'm gonna, I'm gonna make it short,
okay? Because basically, when itcomes to market timing and
figuring out, what do I know,what's going to happen this
year? I don't have a clue. Okay,all I know is, like, like, at
the beginning, when you askedthe first question, you know
what happened? He said, what didDoug say? Yeah, today is gonna
go up or down. It's one of thetwo, right? So for me, I have
(15:05):
the same fears as everybodyelse. I mean, you just heard
Bruce say that somebody who'svery well respected and who
doesn't take his own opinion toolightly said interest rates
could be at nine or 10% within30 months or so, right, right? I
mean, that's enough to make youwant to move to the moon. But I
still got to do business in myarea, so I still got to figure
(15:27):
out a way around all and I dealwith this stuff every day. I go
to my bank. I deal with twobanks in my area. I visit them
every week. It, they have a cupof free coffee, maybe sometimes
cookies. You know, lot ofcookies. Okay, but so I don't
know what's coming, but I know Ican handle and I can weather
(15:48):
whatever it is that's going tohappen. Peter, if you've been
listening to everything Petersaid tonight, he doesn't, I know
he knows everything about theinterest rates, everything about
the interest rates, everythingelse is going on, but I don't
think he cares. He's out therecreating his own markets. Every
each one of us can do the samething in the same markets. I
hope you're paying attentionthere, Glenn.Bruce, if I want to
(16:08):
know about market timing, I'mcoming to The Norris Group.
That's it. And I hope you heardthat loud and clear, because the
majority of the growth in thewealth that I have had was
created as a result of myrelationship with Bruce Norris
and The Norris Group, period. Ican't say anything else about
that, it's the truth. And youknow, it's the truth. I chased
(16:31):
you around like a nutcase,right? Anything he said. I wrote
it down. I went and I didsomething. I took action. Take
action. Glenn, if you fall onyour face, just get up and keep
doing it again and again andagain. I guess that's it. It's
all I gotta say. And Iappreciate you guys inviting me
here, because I am like, I amlike, so all classed and bold.
(16:52):
Tell you what.
Bruce Norris (16:53):
Yeah.
Tony Alvarez (16:53):
This is something else. This is something, the
Cuban kid, no, 10 million wasthe first step I got. I got way
more money. Well, that's anotherstory. That's a whole other
story, though. Anyways, thankyou.
Craig Evans (17:07):
Tell you, if you will, if you give these
gentlemen a hand. It's an honorto stand up here and to be with
men like this and last year,women like this and and to be
(17:27):
able to teach and to try to helpothers grow in their career. You
know, as I was preparing forthis, obviously, there's a lot
of things that's happened in ourworld, in our country in the
last few days that have madethings a little heavier, of how
we deal with people. And one ofthe things that has struck me is
(17:48):
we can talk about interestrates. We can talk about, you
know, how do we negotiate? Wecan talk about the deal, what
the house looks like, on and onand on. But one of the
interesting strategies, if we'rehonest and we listen, is that
it's about people. And what Isaw this week in our in our
(18:12):
world, in our country, is thatwe're becoming a group of people
that are willing to turn aroundand choose death instead of
life. My hope for us as a groupof people, and for the industry
that we're all so passionateabout, whether we're realtors,
whether we're investors, whetherdevelopers, Business Owners
(18:32):
,helping people invest throughIRAs, everything that we do. My
hope and prayer is that weactually give a crap about the
people next to us. We may notlike them, there's a lot of
people I don't like, but I stillchoose to help. My hope and
prayer is that as a group ofpeople, if you're paying
(18:55):
attention to what we do with TheNorris Group and with everything
else that we've got, my hope andprayer is that you'll see we
want to be a group of people,and I hope that's you, that if
we say we bleed red, white andblue, that we will bleed that
and, but in that process, wewill care about the people
around us. But all that, I say,Thank you for the day, thank you
(19:18):
for the evening, and we'll seeyou next year. Thank you guys.
Joey Romero (19:33):
Don't forget to visit isurvivedrealestate.com
for tickets to the event onFriday, September 12. The Norris
Group would like to thank thefollowing Gold sponsors,
Keystone CPA, The Inland ValleysAssociation of Realtors,
Pasadena FIBI, The North SanDiego Real Estate Investors
Association, LA south REIA,NorCal REIA, The Wizard of the
(19:55):
Wobbly Box, Andy Teasley,Shepherd's Finance, The Thompson
Group, PropertyRadar and WhiteHouse Catering. The dinner wine
is provided with a generouscontribution by Rick and Leanne
Rossiter. Hope see you allthere.
Narrator (20:09):
For more information on hard money loans, trust deed
investing, and upcoming eventswith The Norris group. Check out
thenorrisgroup.com. For moreinformation on passive investing
through the DBL Capital RealEstate Investment Fund, please
visit dblapital.com.
Joey Romero (20:29):
The Norris Group originates and services loans in
California and Florida underCalifornia DRE license 01219911.
Florida mortgage lender license1577 and NMLS license 1623669.
For more information on hardmoney lending go to
thenorrisgroup.com and click thehard money tab.
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