What if You’re Wrong? A PM’s Guide to Assumptions

Ever wonder why people in your company speak in absolutes, when they’re really just guessing?

In this episode, Todd and Ryan tackle one of product management’s sneakiest challenges: assumptions dressed up as facts. You’ll learn how to spot them, test them, and decide which ones are worth your time. They also share practical tips for how to push back on overconfidence without becoming the office buzzkill. You’ll get tools like hypothesis framing, assumption matrices, and yes, even a visual analogy of TAM, SAM, and SOM eating pie.

You might think you're just making decisions, but you're probably making bets. This episode will show you the risks you've been taking all along, without even realizing it.

Time Stamped Notes:

Introduction and Setting the Scene
[00:00] Assumptions wearing fact hats – Todd and Ryan set the stage with a playful analogy.
[00:29] Product Porch welcome – Framing today’s conversation: assumptions masquerading as facts.

The Problem with Assumptions
[01:00] “We know this will work” – Why confidence often masks uncertainty.
[02:00] Overt vs. quiet assumptions – Recognizing when assumptions go unspoken.

Identifying and Validating Assumptions
[03:40] PMs as assumption spotters – The product role in unmasking untested ideas.
[04:30] Responsibility and risk – Why recognizing assumptions matters for product outcomes.

Assumptions vs. Hypotheses and Bets
[06:00] Hypothesis ≠ assumption – Breaking down the difference.
[07:30] Fancy words, same risks – How “belief,” “bets,” and “hypotheses” disguise uncertainty.
[14:50] Assumption = risk – Why framing decisions as bets clarifies the stakes.

Practical Approach to Assumptions
[18:30] Todd’s process – From “what we know” to testable hypotheses.
[20:30] Not everything is testable – What to do when data isn’t available.
[21:45] Breaking down baby hypotheses – Getting from big bets to testable ideas.

Spotting Assumptions in Practice
[22:30] Game time – Todd challenges Ryan to find hidden assumptions in a business pitch.
[24:00] 8+ assumptions in one paragraph – How fast we stack untested beliefs.
[30:30] Critical thinking tips – What to listen for and how to respond.

Conclusion and Takeaways
[38:00] Big takeaway: assumptions that can’t be undone are the most dangerous.
[40:00] “Assumption pill” – Seeing the hidden code behind product decisions.
[41:00] Assumption spotter, prioritizer, tester – A new PM identity.

Closing Remarks
[41:45] Sign-off – Todd and Ryan wrap up the episode with appreciation and a reminder to subscribe.

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