Episode Transcript
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(00:00):
Hi, I'm Reef Quown. I'm the Managing Director of NRF
Retails Big Show Asia Pacific, and this is Five Things Friday
AIPAC edition. Reef How are you, Sir?
(00:21):
I'm good. Thank you, Alex.
How are you my friend? Really good.
We're going to have another tight packed edition of the
show. By the way, this show's going
strength to strength. I can't name names, but we're
ranking in the top global 5 of retail podcasts and depending
which market you go, that goes up to top 2.
(00:42):
So I'm super happy. I'm super.
Happy we're going. All right, Adam.
I've never been this popular in my life.
No one ever talks to me. So I'm actually quite excited.
Thank you, Alex. I'm still working with being
popular. Popped.
I feel very excited now. All right, here we go.
All right. Too much.
Am I going? I'm going first, aren't I?
You're going first, Sir all. Right.
Cool, cool, cool. Now, today I'm going to talk a
(01:04):
little bit about e-commerce and we're going to draw some
comparisons between Asia Pacific, North America and
Europe. And one of the things I'll talk
about with Asia Pacific e-commerce is Asia Pacific
e-commerce is still growing freight train quickly.
And what I mean by that is we'reseeing, we'll see in 2023, AIPAC
(01:24):
e-commerce generated about 7.19 billion US by 20-30, it's set to
hit 24 billion. Wow.
We're looking at compound annualgrowth rates of somewhere in the
eighteen 1920%, which is absolutely staggering.
But the yeah, it's, it's absolutely mind blowing.
You know, So yeah, you're thinking about a market which is
one of the biggest retail marketplace in the world, if not
(01:46):
the biggest. And we've got e-commerce growing
at close to 20%. But the really interesting thing
about that is, is in 2023 alone,so, and it continues to happen.
It's, it's more and more as people like Vietnam, Indonesia
come on stream, 81% of those ecommerce sales are on a mobile
device. Yeah, OK.
And it's mostly through apps nowthat is like because as an
(02:11):
American retailer or North or a European retailer coming down to
Asia, Asia is now diverged, AsiaPacific is now diverged.
And you cannot treat and you cannot just turn up and do the
same thing because it ain't gonna work.
Now when I look at, when I look at look at Europe and and the
US, yeah, obviously we're still talking about big numbers, but
compound annual growth rates of 9% in Europe, 9% in America now.
(02:34):
So, so 18% of all U.S. sales is e-commerce.
That's only growing at 9:00 percent year on year.
OK. And if you look at that in terms
of mobile, you know mobile in the US, which is a fairly good
representation is only 44%. So we've talked about 81 in Asia
and 44. So you can see now we've got
(02:57):
slow e-commerce growth. It's more mature, I'll give you
that. But there's a real divergent in
the method in people that e-commerce undertaking shopping,
you know, North America holds about I think.
I thought it was a done done dusted thing as an ecommerce was
at its maximum. That's it.
It's going to be 17% of. Your no, no, no, it's, it's
still growing. It's still growing quite
(03:18):
consistently. So it's taking, it's still
taking a much bigger share, 8-9 percent a year growth in North
America and Europe, not growing at 1920% as in in Asia Pacific.
But the method is different. The method is different.
So we're seeing half, 444344 percent on mobile in the US, 81%
on mobile in Asia. And that's because, you know,
(03:40):
you look at some of those markets like Vietnam, Indonesia,
they weren't terrestrial board broadband networks.
It was always been mobile LED. So it's the natural device to to
shop on because there wasn't a home computer.
There wasn't a laptop or a desktop sitting in the home.
So that's, that's my it's, it's pretty wicked because, you know,
that is a real separation between the markets.
Yeah, we're still having insane growth, but the markets are
(04:03):
going and now diverging. OK, well, on, on, on staying
with that. What is super interesting for me
definitely is again something that I thought was done in China
is delivery because I assumed like in India delivery is done,
but China's going into its instant retail price war.
By instant, I mean deliveries ofone hour.
(04:25):
You've got the big players such as Alibaba, Newton and jd.com
who are pouring billions into one hour delivery, which is
fantastic for users because they're getting subsidies in
their delivery. So they're not footing the bill
that the provider is getting cheaper baskets and faster drop
offs. However, some expect maybe this
(04:47):
will lead to actual profit warnings and maybe even a
tighter embrace from CCP in terms of unfair advantage over
other players in the delivery scene.
But I think keeping delivery to someone hour across such a vast
nation, Yeah, it's a shape of things to come and what we'll
(05:08):
do. Stay with me.
So we. Yeah.
I was going to say. Sorry, got me.
I was going to say, I was going to say sorry to interrupt.
I like interrupting, you know that.
But you know, the Beijing is such an like, if you go to
Beijing, it's such a massive city.
It feels much more spread out than, say, Mumbai.
Yeah. But I think, I think these
profit warnings, I think the Indian, the Indian lesson is
(05:31):
that the consumer was prepared to pay.
So when if the CCP decide that, you know, we're not subsidising
this anymore and we need to takeaway this unfair advantage and
let everyone flourish and, and prosper, I think we'll find that
the consumer will pay for it in,in China as well.
I think ultimately the consumer will get the, the early, the
(05:51):
early adopters will get the benefit, but it can't be any
other way. Ultimately, the economic says
the consumer must pay for the convenience.
Yeah, it's interesting and yeah,I'm not going to.
It's interesting, but I can't call on it because of time.
So the other the same with Chinese, but our other favourite
region that we always talk aboutKorea Chinese.
We love Korea much. From September 29th, so Chinese
(06:14):
tour group are going to get visafree travel to Korea.
And actually what this has led to is retail.
Our retailers in Korea, department stores, duty free
operators and convenience chainsare now ramping up their
staffing and assortment to meet this new code.
It's not a new cohort, sorry. There is already a massive
(06:37):
influx of Chinese tourists in Korea.
But now with this, you know, we talked about K pop and its
influence and one day we will talk about K pop demon hunters.
But oh. We will.
I'm coming. I'm coming.
They're they're they're doing sowell that this Chinese free
Chinese visa free group travel is proving to be a big boost for
(07:00):
the retail community and finally.
Can I add one thing? One of the things, one of the
things in the geopolitical context is China, Korea and
Japan have done a trade agreement, which is.
Which? Which has been something I
didn't think that I'd ever see happen.
But I think the current context of what's happening in North
(07:20):
America has led to this. And I think that, you know,
there is so much demand for Korean product or in the room,
particularly in China. And you only have to look at
Japan and say, well, 20% of retail in Japan is retail
tourism, right? So when they're they're all so
close together, I, I this is going to be a boon, an absolute
(07:43):
boon for Korea. Like you, the demand that for
Korean goods in China is, is is astronomical.
Yeah. So this will be this will this
will be amazing. Another, I'm gonna just quickly
touch on this and then move on. Young brands who own or the
operators of many Western brands, as you can see, such as
(08:03):
KFC, they're, they're set to be continued their growth.
They're buying back shares. They have 1.5 billion in
turnover in 2020, are set to have 1.5 billion turnover in
2025. But the the interesting thing
here is they're going for smaller formats.
They're changing their menus to fit the local taste because
(08:24):
across the region there's such aa vast array of tastes and
palates. And they're also going for
tighter delivery operations. So if you like changing what
they do in the West to me, what's happening in the in, in,
in the east, leaning on what youwere saying reef in terms of
don't think you can turn up and be a fantastic marketing machine
(08:47):
and, and, and push on that. And the final story that I'd,
I'd like to share is one that I've been popping on about for,
for a couple of years where, youknow, I've, I've sort of, you
know, raised the flags and said,hey, retailers over here in the
West, China has been or Chinese retailers have been slowly
progressing their technology, progressing their assortment,
(09:10):
progressing their operations to be able to expand globally.
And so once you've got your operations and technology and
then you move into marketing, you can start expanding.
And so Urban Revivo is going hard after Zara and HM's market
share, they are set to open over200 stores across the overseas.
(09:32):
They've put, so they've already opened two flagship stores in
London, But over the next five years, expect to see over 200
stores in Europe, in the US And I think this is just the start.
So until the regulations change,I expect the retail landscape
and retail High Street to continue to expand and change,
which may actually be a needed thing in regions such as the UK.
(09:57):
OK, closing with you, Reef my friend.
Right, something really special happened in the region was about
10 days ago actually a little bit longer.
So at the NRF big show this yearin APAC, we had a fair price
present their store of tomorrow in an exhibit.
And we, we walk through you and I walk through that Alex and
yeah, had a really great experience and met with Dennis
(10:18):
CEO, the CFCIO. But here they've actually
launched the first store and this is launched in the Pongal
Digital District in Singapore. So this is the the store of
tomorrow. And this is mind blowing.
So when you look at this, this store, this is probably the best
implementation of AI in the customer experience that we've
(10:42):
ever seen. Yeah.
And Thomas Korean, who's a global CEO of Google Cloud,
because fair Price of partnered with Google Cloud came out and
he basically echoed those sentiments like, so that's high
praise indeed. So basically what you talk about
here is you're walking into the store, you've got your fair
price app, you link it to your smart card.
The smart card's got cameras allover it.
(11:05):
There's cameras all in the store.
You can, you can go and buy yourproducts.
When you get to the when you getto the the the the shelf where
the product is, the the the price tag flashes at you to tell
you that's the one you want. All right.
Yeah, it's unbelievable. Like it knows you're there and
then it it navigates you round the store to support your
shopping, shopping based on yourapp and then makes
(11:28):
recommendations. So this this is wild.
It's unbelievable. So I'm going back to Singapore
in November and we will have a 2tour of this store in the show
next year. And next year I hope fair prize
will talk about because I probably have eight months of
data to talk about when we get to the show next year.
But this is something that is absolutely insane.
(11:49):
It's a Gen AI powered supermarket.
It's it's obviously the biggest supermarket group in in
Singapore. And you can see in this it's,
it's a big deal. Like is the, the special
minister low, the government, there's Vipul Chala, the CEO,
Denisia, the CEO in this picturehere.
It is absolutely, absolutely amazing.
So it's, it's, it's like, it's asupermarket experience.
(12:12):
There's no one's ever experienced anywhere in the
world. Yeah.
And, and I would say to you, if you go to Singapore, there's
lots of things to see and do, but go to the Pongal digital
district and go and, and go shopping because it's, it's
wild. It will be absolutely wild.
And I'm I'm really excited to goand see this when I'm up there
later in the year. Yeah, you remind me.
I need to check whether or not we published the interview that
(12:34):
we did on the Fair price store of the future NRF.
I can't remember if we didn't publish it or not.
We. Yeah, we'll.
Interview that I. Remember that that whole sample
and even things like when you gointo the store, you can get a
like a ABMI done and it'll, it'll actually recommend your
whole diet within the supermarket.
So it's all it links the, the assessment of the person to the
(12:55):
shopping list of the person and then and links it to taste in
that. It's it's wild, it's
unbelievable. Well, on on that bombshell, I
like to say let's bop out on ouron our rocky anthem that we have
that's called the Five Things Friday anthem.
Until next week, my friend. Thank you my friend.
Take care and we might have Laura back next week.
(13:16):
Hey. Yeah, hopefully she's she's
she's now back in Sydney, so. That'll add some, that'll add
some quality, so that's good. Yeah.