The Risk Takers Podcast

Today we have on at times one of our harshest critics and at other times our biggest cheerleader, The Shipper (@shipthejustice on Twitter)

Shipper is that rare person who was successful as a trader at a book and then as a professional bettor. This experience makes him one of the go to experts on the topics of account longevity, priming, and maxing account value. This episode he presents a compelling case for why you should have a po...

SP says that there may be nothing more predictive of whether someone is a winning bettor than how diligently they track their bets.

Is tracking your bets a magic pill that makes anyone profitable? It's not magic - but there are a lot of alpha generating benefits of tracking that go along with the important accounting hygiene and performance measuring.   

00:00 – Why Track Your Bets?
 05:00 – Taxes & Record Keeping

This week we interview a man who wears many hats. TV Star, Tennis Bettor, and Author Isaac Rose-Berman.

You may know him from the CNN gambling documentary, you may know him as roundrobin42 on twitter, or you may have seen him on Circle Back. But on this show we go deep into his betting first - learning a lot about betting tennis on the way. After that we have a discussion on news/ industry topics where one person (Isaac) actually kn...

Regardless of if you think we are in a simulation or not - there is no denying that simulations can make you money sports betting. GP & SP breakdown what a simulation model is, when you should use it, and how you can get started with your own sim this sports season.

We get a little technical early - but don't worry, we get really un-technical in the news and Q&A (ending with an actual discussion about sports).

00:00: Int...

We are joined by Casino AP turned Sports Bettor Dan aka Dr. Plop. Dan talks to us about getting into advantage play by multi-accounting Instacart signup bonuses. Then his journey continues through blackjack, slots, churn plays and finally ends up at "about 70%" sports betting.

Dan now runs a team of 4 that at any moment could be sitting at an electronic horse racing machine or betting six-figures on sports. Like a degen Oc...

Find an amazing edge yet still poor? If so - this episode aims to help you correct that. Along with advice on scaling an edge (including SP's vertical v. horizontal scaling lesson) - we break down a big week of industry news and field some questions regarding Kalshi, working with a group and GPs return to twitter.

00:00 Live from Las Vegas – First Impressions
02:15 Scaling an Edge: The Most Valuable Skill in Betting

NBA prop crusher Calvin (CalvinandHobo) joins the show this week to talk about what it takes to win as a ball-knower who doesn't have a model.

Calvin had an interesting journey into professional betting that included becoming a cult hero on JuiceReel before he had to stop posting picks once he won too much and gained too many followers. (He explains why this is a big problem)

Calvin doesn't model - but puts in insane hours ...

Unfortunately...talking to other people and being social can be really +EV

In this episode we help by giving a dive deep into the how and why of building strong partnerships in the sports betting world. From meeting the right people and forming a core team, to scaling through network effects, online presence, and industry events like BetBash — we cover the strategies, pitfalls, and real-world experiences behind successful collaborat...

We are joined by Chris "Flupnolide" Dierkes - the most profitable bettor on Kalshi this month and a professional bettor not afraid to bet huge on great spots.

Chris talks about scaling his betting from being a solo-bettor using OddsJam to running one of the bigger groups in operation. He also enjoys mixing it up on Twitter under the handle @flupnolide where you can find him posting some of the biggest bets that hit the exc...

After two weeks of bad news - the boys start to feel some hope this episode and explain how they have improved their betting during breaks in their sports.  With the sports calendar at its lightest, they dig into why the offseason is a high-leverage window for bettors to optimize their workflows, trim dead weight, and tackle big projects. From cleaning code and cutting distractions to poking around new betting markets, they share h...

Are you relying on twitter to tell you if you should quite gambling or not following the gambling tax disaster in the BBB?

In this episode we sit down with Gary Kondler of Kondler & Associates - the gambling industry leading tax and consulting firm - to discuss the changes in the bill.

From the myths that exploded on Twitter to the real-life tax nightmares facing poker pros, slot whales, and DFS grinders, Gary walks us through ex...

 This week, GP and SP go deep on what's arguably the most pivotal week for the gambling world in years. From legislative crackdowns and lawsuits to tax chaos and rigging scandals, the crew delivers a comprehensive State of the Union for sports betting and its gray-market cousins. If you care about betting—legally, professionally, or recreationally—this is a must-listen. 

0:00 – Opening Thoughts & Why This Episode Exist...

We’re so back with part two of Flaming Hot Sharp Sports Betting Takes! We offer some preeeety spicy opinions on:

• Why executing an edge beats finding one
• Embracing high-hold markets and "one-way" bets
• The value of betting first, asking questions later
• Why hating touts is no longer cool
• Whether being a pro bettor is a legit data science career
• Why going public with your gambling identity can pay off
• And… how much money it woul...

This week we learn how to make more money gambling from the lessons of "The Reverend" Thomas Bayes.

His theorem is the backbone of every successful sports bettor (even if they don't know it).

This week we walk through examples of priors, posteriors and general Bayesian betting hygiene. It's more electric than it sounds!

Andrew Mack's Book: Amazon

0:00 Bayesian Thinking Intro
1...

Second guest episode of the SP era - with a guy living the dream. Akash worked in the front offices of the New York Yankees and Miami Dolphins as well as a Google data scientist before leaving it all behind to be a full-time bettor.

This builds on our recent modeling episodes as we take a jump from simple/ regression based models into the AI/ML blackbox.

You can find Akash in the GP Discord under the name joshroyale

00:00 Sh...

Have you ever projected a player to get 23.2 points and wondered if under 24.5 -115 was a +EV bet?

The answer to this question and more can be found in this magic, exciting, adrenaline pumping thing called...distributions!

This week the lads follow up their episode on making your own numbers with an episode on how to turn those numbers into probabilities. And the news section gets very speculative as GP returns to gambling twitter to...

Feeling overwhelmed when considering the jump from +EV betting to building your own model?

We don't blame you. The little content there is out there on how to get started makes it sound impossible. But the reality is, in the beginning, it's rather straightforward.

In this episode, the boys help you get started with your first sports betting model before getting into the news and Q&A

0:00 Intro
2:30 How to Build ...

GP slowly realizes he's a DFS fish as he recaps his high stakes PGA Championship lineup building strategy to SP. SP breaks down what a winning sports bettor needs to do to win in DFS (and vice-versa)

SP then weighs in on Underdog allowing RTA following GP's rant last episode and the boys discuss why the state of Wyoming determined anyone who wins betting is a cheater.

Questions range from how did the hos...

GP flies solo this week and takes the opportunity to ramble on about his journey from mediocre poker player to pretty good sports bettor. (This includes a quick double-up on the signing bonus he got in business school)

The news is dominated by the Real Time Assistance tool ETR released for Underdog best ball drafts. If you think that's the story - you're wrong. Because Underdog comes out and says they ALLOW this ...