April 4, 2025 • 9 mins
In this episode, Michelle navigates through significant economic developments in Southeast Asia. She begins with an introduction and overview of top stories, paving the way for a detailed analysis of the impact of US tariffs on Vietnam and Thailand, assessing their economic repercussions. The discussion then broadens to explore Southeast Asia's regional diplomacy and economic strategies, highlighting efforts to bolster economic resilience. Michelle also examines the evolution of payment methods across the region, emphasizing technological advancements and their implications. The episode concludes with a summary and a call to action, inviting listeners to stay informed on Southeast Asia's dynamic economic landscape.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Welcome back to the Southeast Asia MarketsDaily Brief.
(00:02):
I’m your host, AI Michelle.
Here are our top stories today...
First, Vietnam and Thailand stocks slump asUnited States tariffs dent risk sentiment.
Second, Thailand has a 'strong plan' to handleUnited States tariffs and hopes to negotiate,
according to the Prime Minister.
(00:24):
Third, alternative payment methods are set toincrease by one hundred seventy percent driven
by a surge in domestic digital wallets,instant, and QR payments.
Let's dive into our first story.
The stock markets in Vietnam and Thailand havetaken a noticeable hit recently, primarily due
to the risk sentiment affected by new tariffsimposed by the United States.
(00:47):
The tariffs have created a ripple effect,leading to a cautious approach from investors
who are now re-evaluating their positions inthese emerging markets.
As a result, both Vietnamese and Thai stockshave experienced a slump, which raises concerns
about the short-term economic outlook for theregion.
In recent years, Vietnam and Thailand have beenseen as promising markets for foreign
(01:11):
investors, thanks to their strong economicgrowth and favorable demographics.
However, the imposition of tariffs by theUnited States threatens to undermine this
potential by increasing the cost of exportsfrom these countries.
This, in turn, could lead to reduced demand fortheir goods, potentially slowing down economic
(01:33):
growth.
It's important to note that the impact of thesetariffs extends beyond just the stock markets.
The broader economic implications could besignificant, affecting everything from
employment rates to consumer spending.
For instance, if companies in Vietnam andThailand face higher costs due to tariffs, they
may need to adjust their operations, whichcould include reducing their workforce or
(01:56):
cutting back on investment plans.
Moreover, the situation highlights theinterconnected nature of global markets today.
Changes in trade policy or economic conditionsin one major economy, like the United States,
can have far-reaching effects on emergingmarkets around the world.
Investors will be closely monitoring howgovernments in Southeast Asia respond to these
(02:19):
challenges, with a keen eye on any potentialpolicy adjustments or trade negotiations that
might mitigate the impact of these tariffs.
Now, let's turn our attention to Thailand,where the Prime Minister, Paetongtarn
Shinawatra, has announced that Thailand has a'strong plan' to handle the new trade tariffs
(02:39):
imposed by the United States.
These tariffs are part of a broader set ofmeasures introduced by President Donald Trump,
which have significantly impacted global tradedynamics.
The tariffs include a hefty 36 percent levy onThai exports, prompting the Thai government to
respond swiftly.
The Prime Minister expressed confidence inThailand's ability to mitigate the impact of
(03:03):
these tariffs, emphasizing the government'sproactive approach.
According to Paetongtarn, the Thai authoritieshave already prepared several steps, including
diplomatic engagement with the United States.
The country's permanent secretary has beentasked with initiating discussions to negotiate
a reduction in these tariffs.
(03:23):
The situation has sparked concern among variousstakeholders, as Thailand and other Southeast
Asian countries face steep tariffs due to theirtrade surpluses with the United States.
Vietnam, for example, has been hit with a 46percent levy, while Cambodia faces an even
higher 49 percent tariff.
The Thai government's approach involvesnegotiating with a sense of understanding
(03:47):
rather than aggression, as Deputy FinanceMinister Julapun Amornvivat highlighted in a
recent video interview.
The Deputy Finance Minister also mentioned theneed to identify which products the United
States deems unfairly traded and to explorepossible adjustments.
The Thai finance ministry is set to meet anddiscuss immediate measures to cushion the
(04:09):
impact of these tariffs, while also crafting acomprehensive trade balance proposal.
The aim is to incentivize the United States toengage in meaningful negotiations, thereby
minimizing disruptions to Thailand's economy,particularly for farmers, consumers, and
businesses.
Despite these efforts, analysts remainskeptical about the effectiveness of Thailand's
(04:31):
negotiations, given the widespread nature ofthe tariffs affecting multiple countries.
Jitipol Puksamatanan, Head of Global InvestmentStrategy at Finansia Syrus Securities,
suggested that Thailand might need to considerdiversifying its export markets, potentially
increasing trade with countries like China tooffset the impact of US tariffs.
(04:54):
The financial implications of these tariffs aresubstantial.
Investment house CGS International hasprojected that the tariffs could shave between
0.9 and 1.2 percent off Thailand's GDP in 2025.
This underscores the urgency for Thailand tosecure a favorable outcome in its negotiations
(05:14):
with Washington.
Meanwhile, the Thai Prime Minister is alsoengaging in regional diplomacy.
She is hosting Indian Prime Minister NarendraModi, with discussions expected to focus on
strengthening bilateral ties and exploring newtrade opportunities.
This comes ahead of a summit of the Bay ofBengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical
(05:36):
and Economic Cooperation group, which includesSouth Asian countries plus Thailand and
Myanmar.
These discussions could potentially open newavenues for economic collaboration, providing
Thailand with alternative markets and partnersin a rapidly changing global trade environment.
Let's now shift our focus to a significantdevelopment in the realm of digital payments.
(06:00):
Alternative payment methods, including digitalwallets, instant payments, and QR code
payments, are set to increase by an impressiveone hundred seventy percent.
This surge is largely driven by domesticmarkets embracing these innovative payment
solutions over traditional international ones.
According to a report by global intelligencefirm ABI Research, the total worldwide value of
(06:25):
transactions for the alternative paymentmethods market is projected to reach one
hundred forty-two trillion United Statesdollars by the end of two thousand thirty.
This growth underscores a transformative shift,as more countries aim for financial sovereignty
and prefer to rely on domestic payment systemsrather than international players.
(06:45):
The growth of alternative payment methods indomestic markets is particularly notable in
emerging economies transitioning from cash todigital payments.
Countries in East Asia and Latin America are atthe forefront of this trend, taking advantage
of the opportunity to build a digital paymentecosystem from the ground up, rather than
(07:05):
adapting existing card-based systems.
This fresh start has fostered aninnovation-driven environment, enhancing the
shopping experience through super apps andpromoting interoperability between domestic
networks.
In two thousand twenty-four, an estimatedforty-five percent of people globally used a
digital wallet, with China leading the charge.
(07:28):
An astounding ninety-five percent of theChinese population utilized WeChat, a super app
that integrates payment functions with socialmedia and chat services.
This model exemplifies the potential of digitalwallets to offer more than just payment
processing, by creating a community-basedpayment ecosystem.
The rise of instant payments is another keydriver of this trend.
(07:51):
By the end of two thousand twenty-five, thetransaction value of instant payments is
expected to reach nearly twenty-eight trillionUnited States dollars.
Platforms like Pix in Brazil and UPI in Indiaare expanding their offerings beyond instant
payments to include QR payments and broaderdigital wallet usage, further fueling growth in
this sector.
(08:12):
While QR payments remain niche in Europe andNorth America, they have experienced a
significant boom in cash-dominated markets inthe Asia-Pacific region.
These payments accounted for a substantialportion of the five point four trillion United
States dollars in processed transactions.
Like digital wallets, QR payment platforms inAsia offer more than just transactional
(08:35):
capabilities, integrating social elements tocreate a richer, more engaging user experience.
These findings are part of ABI Research’sreport on the rise of domestic alternative
payment systems, which provides insights intohow digital payment technologies are reshaping
the financial landscape.
As countries continue to innovate and implementthese systems, the potential for growth and
(08:59):
transformation in emerging markets remainsvast.
Alright, that's a wrap for this episode.
If you enjoyed this brief, and would like tostay updated on latest episodes, don’t forget
to click ‘Follow’ in your podcast app.
Thanks again for listening, and hope to catchyou next time.
Welcome back to the Southeast Asia MarketsDaily Brief.
(00:02):
I’m your host, AI Michelle.
Here are our top stories today...
First, Vietnam and Thailand stocks slump asUnited States tariffs dent risk sentiment.
Second, Thailand has a 'strong plan' to handleUnited States tariffs and hopes to negotiate,
according to the Prime Minister.
(00:24):
Third, alternative payment methods are set toincrease by one hundred seventy percent driven
by a surge in domestic digital wallets,instant, and QR payments.
Let's dive into our first story.
The stock markets in Vietnam and Thailand havetaken a noticeable hit recently, primarily due
to the risk sentiment affected by new tariffsimposed by the United States.
(00:47):
The tariffs have created a ripple effect,leading to a cautious approach from investors
who are now re-evaluating their positions inthese emerging markets.
As a result, both Vietnamese and Thai stockshave experienced a slump, which raises concerns
about the short-term economic outlook for theregion.
In recent years, Vietnam and Thailand have beenseen as promising markets for foreign
(01:11):
investors, thanks to their strong economicgrowth and favorable demographics.
However, the imposition of tariffs by theUnited States threatens to undermine this
potential by increasing the cost of exportsfrom these countries.
This, in turn, could lead to reduced demand fortheir goods, potentially slowing down economic
(01:33):
growth.
It's important to note that the impact of thesetariffs extends beyond just the stock markets.
The broader economic implications could besignificant, affecting everything from
employment rates to consumer spending.
For instance, if companies in Vietnam andThailand face higher costs due to tariffs, they
may need to adjust their operations, whichcould include reducing their workforce or
(01:56):
cutting back on investment plans.
Moreover, the situation highlights theinterconnected nature of global markets today.
Changes in trade policy or economic conditionsin one major economy, like the United States,
can have far-reaching effects on emergingmarkets around the world.
Investors will be closely monitoring howgovernments in Southeast Asia respond to these
(02:19):
challenges, with a keen eye on any potentialpolicy adjustments or trade negotiations that
might mitigate the impact of these tariffs.
Now, let's turn our attention to Thailand,where the Prime Minister, Paetongtarn
Shinawatra, has announced that Thailand has a'strong plan' to handle the new trade tariffs
(02:39):
imposed by the United States.
These tariffs are part of a broader set ofmeasures introduced by President Donald Trump,
which have significantly impacted global tradedynamics.
The tariffs include a hefty 36 percent levy onThai exports, prompting the Thai government to
respond swiftly.
The Prime Minister expressed confidence inThailand's ability to mitigate the impact of
(03:03):
these tariffs, emphasizing the government'sproactive approach.
According to Paetongtarn, the Thai authoritieshave already prepared several steps, including
diplomatic engagement with the United States.
The country's permanent secretary has beentasked with initiating discussions to negotiate
a reduction in these tariffs.
(03:23):
The situation has sparked concern among variousstakeholders, as Thailand and other Southeast
Asian countries face steep tariffs due to theirtrade surpluses with the United States.
Vietnam, for example, has been hit with a 46percent levy, while Cambodia faces an even
higher 49 percent tariff.
The Thai government's approach involvesnegotiating with a sense of understanding
(03:47):
rather than aggression, as Deputy FinanceMinister Julapun Amornvivat highlighted in a
recent video interview.
The Deputy Finance Minister also mentioned theneed to identify which products the United
States deems unfairly traded and to explorepossible adjustments.
The Thai finance ministry is set to meet anddiscuss immediate measures to cushion the
(04:09):
impact of these tariffs, while also crafting acomprehensive trade balance proposal.
The aim is to incentivize the United States toengage in meaningful negotiations, thereby
minimizing disruptions to Thailand's economy,particularly for farmers, consumers, and
businesses.
Despite these efforts, analysts remainskeptical about the effectiveness of Thailand's
(04:31):
negotiations, given the widespread nature ofthe tariffs affecting multiple countries.
Jitipol Puksamatanan, Head of Global InvestmentStrategy at Finansia Syrus Securities,
suggested that Thailand might need to considerdiversifying its export markets, potentially
increasing trade with countries like China tooffset the impact of US tariffs.
(04:54):
The financial implications of these tariffs aresubstantial.
Investment house CGS International hasprojected that the tariffs could shave between
0.9 and 1.2 percent off Thailand's GDP in 2025.
This underscores the urgency for Thailand tosecure a favorable outcome in its negotiations
(05:14):
with Washington.
Meanwhile, the Thai Prime Minister is alsoengaging in regional diplomacy.
She is hosting Indian Prime Minister NarendraModi, with discussions expected to focus on
strengthening bilateral ties and exploring newtrade opportunities.
This comes ahead of a summit of the Bay ofBengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical
(05:36):
and Economic Cooperation group, which includesSouth Asian countries plus Thailand and
Myanmar.
These discussions could potentially open newavenues for economic collaboration, providing
Thailand with alternative markets and partnersin a rapidly changing global trade environment.
Let's now shift our focus to a significantdevelopment in the realm of digital payments.
(06:00):
Alternative payment methods, including digitalwallets, instant payments, and QR code
payments, are set to increase by an impressiveone hundred seventy percent.
This surge is largely driven by domesticmarkets embracing these innovative payment
solutions over traditional international ones.
According to a report by global intelligencefirm ABI Research, the total worldwide value of
(06:25):
transactions for the alternative paymentmethods market is projected to reach one
hundred forty-two trillion United Statesdollars by the end of two thousand thirty.
This growth underscores a transformative shift,as more countries aim for financial sovereignty
and prefer to rely on domestic payment systemsrather than international players.
(06:45):
The growth of alternative payment methods indomestic markets is particularly notable in
emerging economies transitioning from cash todigital payments.
Countries in East Asia and Latin America are atthe forefront of this trend, taking advantage
of the opportunity to build a digital paymentecosystem from the ground up, rather than
(07:05):
adapting existing card-based systems.
This fresh start has fostered aninnovation-driven environment, enhancing the
shopping experience through super apps andpromoting interoperability between domestic
networks.
In two thousand twenty-four, an estimatedforty-five percent of people globally used a
digital wallet, with China leading the charge.
(07:28):
An astounding ninety-five percent of theChinese population utilized WeChat, a super app
that integrates payment functions with socialmedia and chat services.
This model exemplifies the potential of digitalwallets to offer more than just payment
processing, by creating a community-basedpayment ecosystem.
The rise of instant payments is another keydriver of this trend.
(07:51):
By the end of two thousand twenty-five, thetransaction value of instant payments is
expected to reach nearly twenty-eight trillionUnited States dollars.
Platforms like Pix in Brazil and UPI in Indiaare expanding their offerings beyond instant
payments to include QR payments and broaderdigital wallet usage, further fueling growth in
this sector.
(08:12):
While QR payments remain niche in Europe andNorth America, they have experienced a
significant boom in cash-dominated markets inthe Asia-Pacific region.
These payments accounted for a substantialportion of the five point four trillion United
States dollars in processed transactions.
Like digital wallets, QR payment platforms inAsia offer more than just transactional
(08:35):
capabilities, integrating social elements tocreate a richer, more engaging user experience.
These findings are part of ABI Research’sreport on the rise of domestic alternative
payment systems, which provides insights intohow digital payment technologies are reshaping
the financial landscape.
As countries continue to innovate and implementthese systems, the potential for growth and
(08:59):
transformation in emerging markets remainsvast.
Alright, that's a wrap for this episode.
If you enjoyed this brief, and would like tostay updated on latest episodes, don’t forget
to click ‘Follow’ in your podcast app.
Thanks again for listening, and hope to catchyou next time.
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