October 2, 2025 • 52 mins
The bracket doesn’t need saving, but it does need protecting. I open with a full-throated case against expanding March Madness to 76 teams—why it muddles the bracket, rewards the wrong résumés, and makes office pools a midweek mess—then follow the money toward a bigger worry: private equity knocking on college sports’ front door. What happens to classes, rivalries, and the middle tier when financiers chase margins and rebrand conferences like product lines? If you care about the games more than the gloss, this part will hit a nerve.
From there, we recalibrate with on-field truth. Illinois puzzles USC, Georgia earns an ATS ban, and Oregon–Penn State delivers a double-OT jolt that reminds us why we watch. I dig into why Bama’s offense can’t be trusted laying big numbers, how to price Florida State’s top-ranked attack against Miami’s legit defense, and where the value lives in a week dotted with injury landmines. On the NFL side, we parse a wild tie, question the Eagles’ sustainability, weigh the Rams’ short-week edge against a shorthanded San Francisco, and make sense of those “bad team, close spread” traps you don’t need to touch to have a profitable Sunday.
We also update the ban list (sorry, Georgia and Chargers), put James Franklin on the frosty throne with unforgiving big-game numbers, and close with a confident lock: Giants +1.5 at New Orleans, with a sprinkle on the moneyline. If you want sharper bets and a saner sport, ride along, challenge the takes, and bring your card.
Enjoyed the show? Follow and subscribe, share it with a friend who loves the bracket as much as the bets, and drop a review with your favorite pick from the slate. Your feedback keeps the locks laser-focused.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_00 (00:12):
Hey everybody, today is Thursday, October 2nd, and we
have a new edition of theSportsbook Sharps for you.
As always, I am your host, andthis week I am flying solo.
We have got a pack show, eventhough it's just me in the
studio this week.
You have to listen to my voiceand my voice alone.
(00:33):
We have a lot to talk about.
We got a lot of games I want toget to.
A few to recap from last week.
I have an old man yells atcloud.
I have a Stay Frosty.
But uh first we're going tostart with an injury update.
That's right, our first everinjury report here on the show.
(00:54):
Lady, Lady Liberty, our new dog,is on the injury list this week.
She is questionable with a paw.
Now she did participate inpractice today, but I don't know
if she's going to be ready tomake her pick for Monday night
football.
We've got a big game coming upMonday night, and uh she is out
(01:18):
with a paw right now.
So she, I don't know what shedid.
She leapt at me the other dayand broke a nail, turned it
sideways on her paw, had to takeher to the vet yesterday, on
Wednesday.
They had to put her onanesthesia for a little bit,
sedate her, cut the nail off.
(01:38):
It went all the way back to thepaw, so she is wearing one of
those goofy cone things rightnow, and she's got her front
right paw wrapped up.
Uh, the wrap will come offbefore the weekend, so maybe
she'll be able to hobble her wayto a victory.
But that is an update for Ladyon the injury list this week.
I want to be clear witheverybody with the gambling that
(02:00):
the dog is playing injured thisweek.
So just a heads up on hergambling pick.
Uh gambling update from lastweek, four and four.
Very meh.
Uh, after we dominated the weekbefore and went seven and one,
we regressed back to beingaverage uh at four and four.
I will say I am stillundefeated.
(02:24):
So we got that going for us.
But uh yeah, not a great week,and I keep picking the wrong
ones to bet from the gamblinggroup.
Maybe I just need to bet themall every week, but I'm picking
the ones that are losers, andthen I'm not betting the ones
that are winners.
So uh, yeah.
But that's the gambling update.
We have a few locks to go overthis week.
(02:44):
We've got my lock, of course,that we'll wrap the show up
with.
But we're gonna push a segmentup to the front because I gotta
talk about this right away.
You know, just like Ice Cubesaid, he said, yo, Dre, I got
something to say.
I'm putting my old man yells atcloud right up in the front
because I got a lot to say aboutcollege sports.
(03:05):
College sports are fine as theyare.
Stop messing with a nearlyperfect product.
Sure, there can be some tweaks.
The NIL, for instance, uh thename image likeness needs a
total overhaul.
Uh, the transfer rules alongwith it, every season is like
(03:27):
free agency.
Now, every time a coach getsfired, it fires off free agency
for those players in the middleof the season.
That that needs change.
They know they need to adjustthat.
It needs some tweaks.
However, this leads to my oldman yells at cloud moment.
Starting with basketball, thisis a hot rumor that's fresh off
(03:47):
the presses today.
Rumors are that the NCAAtournament expansion to 76 teams
overall is getting closer by theday.
Stop.
Just stop it.
68 is fine.
64 would be better.
We could get rid of those fourextra schools, but 68 is a fine
(04:09):
number.
We don't need no more.
They are just itching to put 12lost Big Ten and SEC schools on
the bubble and talk about, oh,isn't it sad this 12 team got
in, but this 12 loss team, youknow, 12 SEC losses, 12 Big Ten
losses.
This one didn't get in, but thisone did.
(04:31):
Okay.
I'm sorry.
If you have double digit losses,I don't want to hear anything
about you making it or notmaking it.
Maybe don't get double digitlosses in your conference.
I'm talking in the conference.
Disgusting.
I don't need it.
This would make the openinground, opening round, I'm doing
air quotes there, opening round,when very few people play.
I we don't call they called itthat in the article I read.
(04:54):
We don't call the first fourgames the opening round.
That's not the opening round.
They tried to do that uh andthen they changed it.
Uh that would be 12 games.
So 24 teams play a game to getdown to 12, and then 52 teams
would get a bye.
So you'd then you'd get to 64.
(05:15):
That's how you do the math.
That's a little math for youpeople out there that don't know
math.
Uh, 12 plus 52, 64.
I'm pretty sharp with the math.
Uh 52 teams would get a bye.
I don't like this one bit.
For one, it's too many teams.
I I already said it.
You're gonna be arguing thebubble watch is gonna be mostly
(05:37):
all double-digit teams, youknow, arguing over who had the
three worse losses than theother three worse losses, or
whatever.
It's gonna be just nobody wantsto hear that.
So that's the first thing.
Way too many teams, and they'regonna be very mediocre teams
that get in.
You know, if they were do thisand they would say, you know,
(06:00):
out of those extra teams thatget in now, because we're right
now we're at 68, so this wouldbe adding another eight teams.
Uh, those teams that get in,they have to all all eight of
them have to be from minorconferences, not the power four
conferences, then I could hearit.
You're throwing more A10 in,you're throwing more Mac in,
(06:22):
you're throwing uh Mountain Westin, all these other ones getting
more teams in, that's fine.
Because a lot of times there'steams with four or five losses
in some of these conferencesthat, you know, they didn't win
their conference tournament,they only send one, even though
they had a wonderful season,they won the regular season, you
know, they lost in thetournament and they're out.
I'd be totally fine with that.
(06:43):
Maybe that could be a provision.
See, I'm spitballing here on thefly.
You win your regular season, butyou don't win that conference
tournament.
Well, now with these extra eightteams, we pick eight of those
schools that happened into thatsituation and they make it in.
I'd be fine with that.
I mean, I'd rather just not addany.
But if they're gonna add them,don't add Power 4 teams that
(07:05):
are, you know, 12 through 15losses, and we're sitting there
and the teams 18 and 15, andwe're like, oh, I can't believe
they didn't make it in.
No, stop with that.
Second, and this is the moreimportant part, it's hard enough
to get people to fill out abracket in time.
They don't remember their login,even though you've used the same
(07:25):
credentials for 10 years atwork, you know, they you can't
get them to fill it in.
Now you want to try to push itup and try to get them in and to
fill out a 76 bracket by Tuesdayafternoon, because these games,
they said they're gonna playthem at two sites, six games at
each site.
Uh, so I would assume they'regonna play half of them on
(07:46):
Tuesday, six on Tuesday, six onWednesday.
Uh right now they play two onTuesday, two on Wednesday, but
nobody fills those out in thebracket.
But if we're doing 12 games, Iwould imagine you're gonna want
to fill the bracket out forthat.
So they're never gonna get thatin.
(08:06):
Uh I I just I don't know how youget this done.
I hate it.
Every time they bring upexpansion, it makes me want to
throw up a little bit in mymouth.
Ah, I can't stand it.
So that's part one of my old manyells of cloud.
This is gonna be a long old manyells of cloud, by the way.
The next part, it's still aboutcollege sports, but we're
(08:28):
talking, I guess football.
It didn't specifically sayfootball, I guess it would be
for all of it, but the paper ofrecord, that'd be the New York
Times for those that don't knowthat, is reporting that the Big
Ten, my boys, my conference,they are looking to inject
(08:48):
private equity into collegesports.
This is absolutely diabolical.
Did we learn nothing 35 yearsago when Richard Gere cut up
those companies in Pretty Woman?
Private equity will stripeverything from college sports
(09:12):
and leave it barren andunrecognizable.
No more classes.
How can you explain to the bunchof a room full of investment
bankers, oh, you know, we wouldhave played better on Saturday,
but you know, our yeah, youknow, our star wide receiver,
the backup quarterback, theydidn't they, you know, they had
(09:33):
the backup had to come in, buthe had a bunch of classes, so he
wasn't quite ready with all thegame film.
No.
Now I know they don't always goto classes or whatever, but they
still go, even if at NorthCarolina they make up the
classes, they don't ever dotheir homework, whatever.
A lot of schools still make thekids go to classes, not all of
them, but a lot of the schoolsstill make the kids go to
(09:55):
classes, still make them turn intheir homework.
They're not using AI to generatetheir papers or answers or
whatever, having somebody elsedo it for them.
There's still the appearancethat this is occurring.
But once private equity is in,they're not gonna go to class.
You're never gonna have a classwith a football student again at
any of these universities.
(10:16):
They're not gonna go.
Why would they go?
And if you think conferencerealignment's bad now, wait
until the capitalists decidethat they only want, I don't
know, we only want the top 20teams in a conference.
That's that's all we want.
We don't want, uh we're gonnacall it the big corporation.
(10:36):
You know, we're gonna take thebest of the big ten, we're gonna
take the Ohio States, theMichigans, you know, the big
brands, not even necessarily thebest teams, but who has the best
numbers.
You know, Georgia, we're gonnago to the SEC, we're gonna take
Georgia and Alabama and Texas,uh, you know, Texas is a big
name.
Uh, we're gonna take all theseschools.
(10:57):
We're maybe take Clemson fromthe ACC, and that's it.
We're gonna cut them all in abig conference, and we're gonna
call it the big corporateconference.
And uh there's no room for allthese other ones.
Uh Ohio State, Michigan, youhave a bunch of rivalry games
against Wisconsin and and uh youknow all these other schools,
Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern,all these other ones.
(11:19):
That's fine.
You guys aren't big TV people.
Like you don't you don't bringvalue.
That'll be what they start totalk about.
Instead of wins and losses,it'll be well, which school
brings value?
Who has a name brand orwhatever?
Uh there's no room for thesesmall teams in the new world
order.
You think they want a bunch ofdrunks from IU or a bunch of
(11:42):
farmers from West Lafayette?
Uh no.
They're gonna leave Bloomington,they're gonna leave West
Lafayette behind.
There's no room for them.
Uh Champaign, Illinois?
No.
Illinois, bye.
You're done.
You're not gonna be in this newbig corporate conference.
Uh Upstart Indiana is one of thebest stories in college football
(12:07):
the last two years.
They've been laying it on teamsthis year.
They struggled a little bit withIowa this week, but the rest of
the games this year, they'vebeen just drilling.
They drilled Illinois two weeksago.
And I know people said, oh, thiswas turning into an IU podcast.
I'm not an IU guy, but they're agood story.
That story doesn't exist in bigcorporate world.
Indiana is left behind in thedust.
(12:29):
They're not in the new Big Ten,they're not in the new world
order, they're out uh on theirown somewhere.
For the longest time, for ahundred years, you know, there
were gray seats at uh MemorialStadium or whatever the heck
it's called in Bloomington.
They their fans didn't show up.
They're not gonna be invited tothe big corporate event.
You can't sell out your ownplace, you have no room in this
(12:52):
new TV money world.
You're done.
You're stuck in uh they're gonnashove you in a closet with uh
Purdue and Illinois andNorthwestern and stuff like
that.
We're gonna call it the LittleMidwest Conference, brought to
you by Barbasol.
Uh, and that's the other thing.
Everything's gonna be branded.
If private equity's in, it's notgonna be it's it's bad today.
(13:12):
All the trophies, all the bowlgames are sponsored.
The conferences are gonna besponsored.
We're gonna have the Capital OneOhio State Buckeyes.
They're not gonna be called Ohiothe Ohio State.
It's gonna be called the CapitalOne Ohio State, brought to you
by State Farm.
Like, it's it's gonna beterrible.
They're gonna everything,everything's gonna have a brand
(13:33):
to it.
It's gonna be disgusting, gross.
I don't want any part of this.
Uh, and and it's wild to me.
The reason that this was in theNew York Times, the the reason
they said they were running toprivate equity like this, a lot
of these schools are taking onway too much debt for their
athletic programs to buildthings out.
(13:54):
They had the numbers.
Incredibly, Illinois led the BigTen.
They are$312 million in debt intheir athletic department.
What is Illinois spending$312million on?
Their product on the fieldstinks, their product on the
hardwood stinks.
I don't know where all thatmoney's going.
(14:16):
Their court is one of the worstcourts in the Big Ten.
Uh, I I just don't get it.
I don't understand that at all.
Terrible.
But that's my old man Yellows atCloud.
So we're gonna reset here.
I'm gonna cool down a little bitafter that.
Uh let's get into a recap here.
College football, let's recapthe week.
(14:38):
Speaking of Illinois, Illinoiswins, beats USC, gives USC their
first loss 34-32.
First loss of the year on Alaskain field goal.
Illinois just lost to IU 63 to10.
I don't understand.
Is USC not that good?
Was this a case of the WestCoast team uh playing East?
(15:03):
This was a noon kickoff, so itwas 9 a.m.
on the West Coast.
That's when USC played.
So is that the case?
I don't know.
But be on the lookout.
As USC has a bye, and then theyplay in Michigan, and then at
Notre Dame the next twoweekends.
Now is Notre Dame good or bad?
I don't know.
Is USC good or bad?
I don't know.
These are gonna be tell-allgames.
(15:25):
You're gonna know a lot afterthese next two weeks, three
weeks, I guess, because they'reoff on bye this week.
Uh but those games are both set7.30 at night.
So 4.30 Pacific.
So maybe they'll be okay.
I'm not sure.
Uh, but that's one game fromlast week.
The next one I want to get to,Ole Miss beat LSU.
(15:45):
Matt was right.
I don't know why I didn't see itcoming.
Brian Kelly often loses thesebig games, and LSU did.
I sat here on the podcast anddebated it with him, and I
thought, you know, Lane alsoloses these sometimes, but not
nearly as much as Brian Kelly.
So hats off to Matt for gettingthat right.
Uh Bama beats Georgia 24-21.
(16:08):
Uh, okay.
Georgia's offense stinks.
So does Bama's.
Bama's not great either.
Uh we were flipping back andforth between the game last
week.
We had Oregon, Penn State, andGeorgia, Alabama at the same
time.
This is how much their offensestinks both teams in this
(16:29):
Bama-Georgia game.
Here's the second half drives.
Miss field goal, touchdown, losson downs, punt, punt, loss on
downs, punt, punt, kneel down toend the game.
One score the entire secondhalf.
(16:49):
Just one score.
Just a terrible game.
Terrible offenses.
It wasn't a defensive battle.
The offenses were just wildlyinept.
There were throws that weresailing five, six yards over
people, missed timing on routes.
Their offense is just gross.
(17:12):
And here's a fun stat.
Georgia, a favorite of theSportsbook Sharps here.
We love to do what's that comingdown the track?
We've picked them twice thisyear with our locks.
Georgia, the Bulldogs.
Oh, ho, ho, ho.
0-4 against the spread thisyear.
They are bums, and I am banningthem from being selected again
(17:35):
until they cover a spread.
You're 0-4 on the year?
Gross.
You are shameful, and you'rebanned.
Not allowed to be picked.
And then game of the week,Oregon 30, Penn State 24.
Double overtime game.
Penn State scores first.
Then they don't score againuntil the end of the game.
(17:55):
They were down 17-3 in thefourth quarter.
So we are in the third quarter.
We kept it on the Bama gameinstead.
Then we saw, you know, PennState was driving.
We flipped back over.
They scored.
They scored again to tie it inthe fourth quarter.
Overtime was electric.
Penn State scored almostimmediately.
Then Oregon took a little bit toget their touchdown in, but they
(18:18):
tied up, go to the secondovertime.
Oregon scores on one play.
And then the very next play,Penn State gets the ball.
Interception.
Unbelievable.
Unbelievable.
I loved it.
The Oregon players, they runover to the Penn State fan
section.
The Penn State fan section hadbeen giving them lip all game.
Oh, we're going to beat you,blah, blah, blah.
I loved it.
The Oregon players went over andwaved goodbye to them.
(18:40):
I loved it.
I absolutely loved it.
NFL highlights Sunday nightfootball.
And I only call this ahighlight, at least it was high
scoring, right, folks?
Dallas Green Bay tie at 40.
I only bring this up becauseit's the second highest scoring
tie ever.
The record is 43.
(19:01):
There was a game, I think itsaid it was like 1967.
I forget who the two teams were,but they tied at 43.
So this is the second highestscore ever.
It was very funny.
My mom texts me when the gamewas over.
She said, this can end in a tie.
And my sister-in-law said thesame thing.
Tara, she's like, wait a minute,they're just gonna end the game
(19:23):
at 40?
I'm like, yep, that's uh that'show the regular season NFL
works.
You play one 10-minute overtime,and if it's tied at the end of
that, that's it.
Everybody uh enjoy.
Um I don't know what to makeafter this game.
Uh the you know, I think if theCowboys had CeeDee Lamb, they'd
(19:44):
probably win that game.
Even though Pickens wasincredible, uh, you know, the
Cowboys defense is a sieve.
They I Jordan Love is not thatgood.
I I you know I I sat here withDarby weeks ago and proclaimed
that I loved, you know, forpeople that weren't in the top
(20:05):
five or whatever, pick a SuperBowl kind of a dark horse or
whatever.
I said I get I love theStollers, you know, with Rogers
going there, and I love GreenBay with getting Micah Parsons.
I don't I'm a little lukewarm onGreen Bay now.
That love is not looking thatgood this year.
I know they scored 40 points,but Russ just cooked the Cowboys
(20:28):
for 40-some points two weeksago, and he's on the bench now.
So that doesn't mean much you'dscore a lot against the Cowboys.
So I don't know what to thinkabout Green Bay.
I need to see some more tape onGreen Bay, but I'm a little
worried.
I put a future out on Green Bayto win the Super Bowl after they
got Parsons.
Now I'm thinking maybe not Supi.
Uh maybe playoffs, but not SuperBowl.
(20:52):
I don't know.
I don't know.
We'll see.
I'm a little lukewarm on thepack for now, but we'll see.
We'll see after some more games.
Uh speaking of teams, I'mflip-flopping on the Giants and
Jackson Dart stunned theChargers to get their first win
of the season.
I thought this was slam dunkChargers.
(21:12):
When they said Dart wasstarting, you know, I obviously
I'm not a Russ guy.
I don't need Russ hasn't beencooking for many, many years.
He's been uh kind of bad.
You know, he bounced to Denver.
He was bad in Denver, wasn'tgreat with the Steelers last
year, and now he's with theGiants and he's already benched.
Uh, so it's not like I'm a proRussell Wilson guy, but I just
(21:33):
thought, you know, rookieplaying the Chargers, no way
this guy's gonna win.
They won.
I was wrong.
Uh Air Bear reverted to stinkform again.
Uh, you can't trust this guy.
That's a you know, I I said Ibanned Georgia from being bet.
For right now, the Chargers arebanned from being bet as well.
(21:53):
I'm not I'm not buying it.
You can't trust Air Bear.
I don't want to bet, I want tobet on sure things.
That's what we do here.
That's why I'm undefeated in mylocks on the season.
That's why I proudly standbehind my choices.
I cannot be putting money onpeople like Justin Air Bear.
He's a bum.
(22:14):
I've always thought he's a bum.
He looked really good last year.
They started off 3-0 this year.
I thought they were lookinggood.
You can't, you can't lose.
You can't throw two picks.
You cannot lose to this Giantsteam.
Everybody and their brother'sinjured on the Giants.
And they started a rookiequarterback in his first game,
and you lose that game.
Great NFL quarterbacks don'tlose that game.
(22:36):
Air Bear is not a great NFLquarterback.
So banned.
Not betting on the Chargers fora while.
I need to see more from thembefore I lift the ban on that.
Uh, Philly beat Tampa Bay by sixas Baker ran out of time to
complete the comeback.
Once again, Philly playing in aclose game.
I think they're a fake 4-0.
(22:57):
I'm saying it here.
And the Eagles fans, they'regonna cry and complain and
they're gonna whine and they'regonna swear at me because that's
what the Philly scumbag fans do.
But because they're gonna say,oh, this podcast, they always
think that the Eagles are worsethan they are.
Look, Jalen Hurts stakes.
Zero pass completions in thesecond half.
(23:20):
Think of that.
In today's day and age of airthe football out, you know,
quarterbacks are slinging it 40,50 times a game.
That's the average, 40 times agame.
Throwing the ball.
He only had eight attempts inthe second half, and he
completed zero.
Zero.
Uh and Brown, he is so out.
(23:41):
He he had some weird quote afterthe game about how you just kind
of have to move on, but he is sochecked out of the Eagles, like
he is getting mad on thesidelines.
There's gonna be some problemsthere because you got a guy that
only attempts eight passes andand not getting the wide
receiver star of the ball.
Uh yeah, I don't get it.
They got up 24-3 and said, Well,the only way we can lose this
(24:03):
game is if Jalen Hurts throws abunch of picks, so we're just
not gonna let him throw thatmuch.
Uh, I don't know.
I it still stuns me.
I'm still shocked that theEagles won the Super Bowl last
year.
I I don't get it.
You start the second half andrun the clock mode.
I don't get it.
You're one of the best teams.
You're supposed to just dominateteams like this, Tampa Bay.
(24:24):
Uh it's a wild thing to do toenter in run the clock mode to
start the second half, but itworked for them.
They ran the clock out.
If Baker had 15 more seconds, wemay be sitting here saying that,
you know, Tampa Bay beat them byone, but they ran out of clock.
And then the last game from lastweek I want to get to, Kansas
(24:44):
City beats Baltimore.
Uh duh.
You think?
I picked Kansas City for my lockof the week.
Of course they're gonna cover.
Lock it in.
Uh second half, Lamar Jacksongoes down.
He goes out.
He's out this week as well.
I looked it up.
Baltimore has 11 starters on theinjury report this week.
(25:07):
Yikes.
That is not good.
Uh adjust your bets this weekaccordingly.
I forget uh I had it up here.
Where is the Baltimore?
Houston at Baltimore.
So just keep that in mind whenyou see that line.
Just keep in mind No Lamar and10 other starters are on the
(25:31):
injury report.
Not just 11 players, you know,but 11 players total out of 52
being on the injury report aquarter of the way through the
season.
That's not surprising.
11 starters.
That's uh alarm bells are goingoff.
Alright.
Now I'm gonna get to my stavefrosty here, and we got a coach
(25:53):
uh oh wait, I gotta do a littlerecap here, real quick.
We have a new addition to thecoaches fired.
Sam Pittman at year six of inArkansas was let go this week.
So he joins Deshaun Foster atUCLA, Brent Pry at Virginia
Tech, Mike Gundy at OklahomaState.
All those coaches have beenfired this season already.
(26:16):
I'm putting another new one upon Stave Frosty.
New for me.
I think others that have been aguest on here have put him up
before, but I am putting up, andI talked about this game
earlier, Penn State head coachJames Franklin.
James Franklin can never everwin a big game.
(26:37):
Here's some stats for you.
His career record, he is 1 and15 versus the top five, he is 4
and 21 against the top 10, andhe is 4 and 17 against the Ohio
State Buckeyes and the MichiganWolverines.
(27:00):
4 and 17.
This is a school, Penn State,that is always in the top 25.
They're consistently in the top15, and they are often in the
top 10, and it's a joke.
I'm sorry, if you have a 4 and21 career record against the top
(27:25):
10, that's not what top 10schools do.
Top 10, I'm not saying it shouldbe 500.
They should maybe be 30%.
You win a third of the time.
You know, if you're if you'replaying ones and twos and
you're, you know, four, five,six, you should beat them
(27:45):
sometimes.
You shouldn't go four andtwenty-one against top ten.
That's just bad.
Uh, fun fact for you too PennState and Texas this season,
we're in week six.
We're heading into week six ofcollege football season.
Penn State and Texas, the onlytwo teams in the top 25 that
have not beaten a power fouropponent.
(28:06):
It's incredible.
We're heading into the sixthweek, and they don't have a
power four win yet.
So all their wins are againstbad schools.
If Penn State is happy being inthe top 15, then yeah, keep him.
I'll take him off the FrostyThrone.
You're happy being in the top15, and that's where you cap
out, like, oh, you're a top 15school.
Uh, but if you ever want to wina big game, if you ever want to
(28:29):
win a title, then you will yeetthis man into the sun.
He's a loser.
He's been there 12 years.
They have one Big Ten title in2016 to show for it in 12 years.
One Big Ten title.
How how a team is cons is oftenduring the season in the top 10,
(28:52):
but they've only won one Big Tentitle is incredible to me.
The media department just mustbe absurd there.
They they are such a good brand.
We are Penn State, all thisstuff.
Oh, they, you know, the call andresponse and all that crap.
Just incredible marketing byPenn State.
Uh, but Penn State, you'resupposed to be one of the
(29:12):
premier football programs.
Uh, in its first 14 years in theBig Ten, Joe Pa won the Big Ten
title three times.
Franklin has been there almostas long.
He only has one title.
And he's not picking up anotherone this year.
So they still, Penn State, haveto play at Ohio State, and they
(29:33):
host Indiana.
I think that's two more losses.
Uh is Penn State fine with threelosses and a New Year's Eve bowl
game?
I guess we'll see at the end ofthe season, because I think
that's where they're heading.
They're heading for a three lossseason, and uh, you know, maybe
they'll play in the MeinikeCarbowl brought to you by
Meinikey, whatever, brought toyou by Old Spice.
(29:57):
Uh stay Frosty J.
James Franklin.
Alright, now let's get into thebig games for this week, and
then we'll get into the locksand wrap it up.
Wrap it up this week.
First game up.
Not a lot of big games incollege football.
This is kind of a lull.
We're in the middle of thecollege football season.
(30:18):
It's time to hit lull mode,apparently.
We got number 16, Vandy, andnumber 10, Bama.
10 and a half point favorites,Alabama.
Vandy did it last year.
It had been forever.
I think they said it had beensince 1984 or something like
that, that they beat Alabama.
(30:39):
I think they've run it back.
I think they could beat himagain.
Vandy's looking good this year.
This Bama team didn't lookgreat.
I talked about it in the Georgiagame.
Their offense stinks.
They didn't score.
Bama didn't score in the secondhalf.
They missed a field goal, andthat was as close as they got.
I don't trust Bama.
I almost made this my lock.
(31:00):
This was borderline lockmaterial here.
But, you know, just sometimesVan Dy.
They didn't.
No show.
So so I didn't make it my lock,but I do like it.
I am gonna bet it.
I am gonna take Vany plus 10.5.
I might sprinkle a little moneyline just because I I don't
believe in Bama.
I don't think Bama covers 10.5.
(31:22):
That's so many points for a teamthat doesn't score.
I just it I I just I don't Idon't see it.
10 and a half.
I know it's at Bama.
I just I don't see it.
I don't see it.
I almost ah man, I wish I hadmade that my lock.
You know what?
I'm not gonna, it's not my lock.
I already picked my lock, Ialready sent it out to the
gambling group.
(31:43):
But boy, it's like lockadjacent.
Oh, it's right there.
I just bam, I don't believe inthem.
Well, I'm only gonna talk aboutone other college game this
week.
Uh we got number three Miami atnumber eight, Florida State.
Florida State at home, four anda half point home dog.
(32:03):
I don't know what to make ofthis game.
Uh both teams have a big top 25win in week one, but they're
against schools that I don't arethey having a down year?
Like FSU beat Bama.
I just said I don't trust Bama.
So is that a big win?
I mean, they just beat Georgia,so maybe.
I guess it's a big win still.
Uh, and then Miami beat NotreDame, and I I'm not high on
(32:24):
Notre Dame.
I guess it depends on what youthink of those two schools.
Like, is Notre Dame more fake oris it Bama more fake this year?
So that's gonna be how you kindof decide what you bet here.
Uh, Florida State, number one onoffense, Miami, number nine
overall on defense.
(32:46):
I think I'd like FSU to coverfour and a half.
I I don't know if they're gonnawin, but four and a half when
you score as much as FSU does, Ithink they said they were
averaging 53 a game or somethinglike that.
Number one offense in all theland.
I I kind of tend to decide likethe offense, it's at home.
The offense will still work,even though they're against a
(33:07):
very tough top ten defense.
I I think they cover it.
I think they cover the four anda half.
So I'm leaning FSU, but uhthat's my thoughts on that game.
I guess, like I said, thinkabout what you think about Miami
over Notre Dame, FSU over Bama,and use that to kind of
configure what you're gonna betthere.
(33:28):
The bye week start.
We're going to the NFL.
Bye weeks already.
Bears, Falcons, Packers, Stolerson a bye this week.
Thursday night football.
We're gonna look at that gamefirst.
It's Thursday, and we're talkingThursday night football.
Both teams are 3-1.
(33:49):
We've got San Francisco at LosAngeles Rams.
Rams minus 8.5.
No Brock Purdy.
That's official as of thismorning.
Brock Purdy is out for the game.
They have so many injuries forSan Francisco.
No Kittle, no Purdy, no Ayuk, noJennings.
(34:09):
And I counted, I'm not going tolist them all.
There were like 14 other peoplethat were injured or out for
tonight, questionable or out fortonight.
Uh I think the Rams are legit.
They're 3-1.
Obviously, both teams are 3-1.
3-1 is a very good record.
But the Rams, they had twoblocked field goals in the
(34:30):
fourth quarter.
Either field goal would havegiven them the lead against the
Eagles.
I like them to cover 8 12.
I love the Rams here.
Uh I think they cover it.
Another big game.
Uh, I think both these teams arethree and one as well.
Tampa Bay and Seattle.
Seattle minus three and a half.
(34:53):
Seattle at home is very good.
I I don't know if they coverthree and a half.
I'm kind of a Baker believer.
I kind of like them on the road,but I they didn't cover last
week against the Eagles, and Ithink the Eagles are fake good.
So I think you gotta kind oflean Seattle here, minus three
and a half.
It's at home.
(35:13):
I I think they win it.
Uh, do they cover three and ahalf?
Oh, that hook, that hook couldget you.
It could be a three-point game,and you could be sitting there
thinking, oh, I should havebought the hook.
This one's gonna be a tight one.
I like to watch this game onSunday.
Another one, Kansas City atJacksonville, another three and
a half point spread.
Jacksonville home dogs, threeand a half point home dogs.
(35:37):
I I think after last weekagainst Baltimore, though,
Kansas City's turning it on.
Jacksonville's very good.
It's in Duval, but I think Ilike Kansas City to win by four
more here.
I think they're they're turningit on.
They had a little lull at thebeginning of the season where
they started one and two.
Now they're two and two.
(35:59):
That was a big win againstBaltimore.
Uh, you know, that was Mattcalled that a loser leaves town
match last week.
1-2 Baltimore versus 1-3 KansasCity.
Lamar gets hurt.
I mean, Baltimore's fortuneslook totally upside down now uh
compared to where they sat aweek ago at 1-2.
Now they're 1-3 with a hurtLamar, and Kansas City's 2-2.
(36:20):
They're right there.
The Chargers lost last week,surprisingly, to the Giants.
So I think now this is whenKansas City starts to win.
All the Swifties are, you know,getting back into the football
now that they're 2-2 and allthat stuff.
So uh Yeah.
(36:40):
I think you take Kansas Cityhere, even though it's in
Jacksonville.
In Duval.
I think you pick uh Yeah, Ithink you pick Kansas City to
cover it.
Uh okay.
There are a lot of close spreadbad team games this week.
I'm gonna run through them.
I'm not gonna give you picks onall of them, but be careful out
(37:02):
there this weekend.
These are five games thatfeature what I think are bad
teams, but it's a close spread.
So when bad teams get closespreads, it's a bad team off.
It could flip either way, sojust be careful.
We're gonna start with Dallas atNew York Jets.
Jets, two and a half point homedogs.
(37:27):
I mean, Dallas's offense looksgreat.
Their defense looks like one ofthe worst in the league.
It's incredible to me.
I don't, I don't, I can't makeheads or tails.
I mean, how do you not stop ateam from scoring 40?
They've given up 40 over 40 plustwice this season.
I I don't I don't understand it.
And the Jets just they stink.
(37:49):
They're 0-3.
They stink.
They they stink.
But I don't know what to dohere.
Like, does do the Cowboys giveup a bunch of points?
Do they not cover two and ahalf?
I think the Cowboys win thegame.
It's at New York.
Maybe they don't win the game.
They're 1-2-1 on this season.
It's not like it would besurprising if they went 1-3-1.
Uh I don't know.
(38:11):
Be careful.
Uh Minnesota Cleveland inLondon.
Now, Cleveland's made a change.
Joe Flacco is out.
He's done.
They did not go to Shador.
They went to their other rookiethat they drafted.
I don't.
Shador had a weird pressconference this week.
He he he spoke in mime.
I guess did you say spoke?
I don't.
(38:31):
Mimes don't speak.
I don't know what you would say.
He just kind of motioned throughsome stuff.
He was being very weird.
I think he's very big mad thathe is not the starting
quarterback that they went withthe other guy, uh, whose name
escapes me at this moment.
Um Dylan Gabriel.
I think that's his name.
Uh, but look it up at home.
(38:51):
Whatever.
I I think I've taken Minnesotahere, but boy, uh Carson Wentz
looks so bad last week.
He he looked like Carson Wentzof old.
He had that cute little CarsonWentz game two weeks ago where
they won by a million, and theywere like, oh, maybe he should
replace JJ for this season.
You know, they're poised to winthis year.
(39:12):
And then he went over to Irelandlast week uh with all his ginger
pals, and he threw a bunch ofwounded ducks all around Ireland
and looked terrible, and theSteelers, the Steelers were
beating on them pretty good.
They let him back into it at theend.
It was only maybe a three-pointgame, but at one point, it was
like a 20-point game.
Uh yeah, they didn't look goodover there.
(39:33):
Now they do have the advantage.
They stayed the week.
So Minnesota's been over acrossthe pond here for a couple uh
two two weeks now, a week and ahalf, whatever.
So maybe that gives them theedge to cover four.
I don't know.
I just don't like putting moneyon Carson Wentz.
Like, I just I don't.
I I told I said last week I'dlike the Steelers, and they
(39:53):
covered, and uh just CarsonWentz.
That's uh these are two badteams.
Starting a rookie quarterback inLondon, I shh I don't know.
Oof.
So that's your options.
You either are back in CarsonWentz or you're back in a rookie
quarterback on the road inLondon.
Uh so yeah, that's a bad game.
Houston at Baltimore.
(40:14):
Houston finally gets their firstwin last season, last week.
Uh Baltimore 1-3.
Like I said, no Lamar.
Baltimore two-point underdog athome.
What I I don't I don't know whatthis is another one.
It's like you could flip a coinfor this one.
I have no idea.
Baltimore without Lamar?
Maybe Derrick Henry just carriesthem to victory and they win it
(40:36):
outright.
I it I if they go one and four,I think you can mark their
season done.
The Steelers are ahead of them.
I guess that's it.
The Bengals, they're withoutBurrow for weeks.
Alright, maybe reverse course.
Maybe not quite done at one andfour.
(40:56):
Because there's always Rogers isa malcontent.
He could all of a sudden in themiddle of the season be mad.
He was big mad.
He didn't like that the teamdidn't travel earlier.
He would have preferred to havegone to London early.
He said in the press conferencethat he disagreed with the way
the team was handling it.
And we were only in week four,and Rogers is already saying he
didn't like how something washandled.
So he's uh often a malcontent,and uh so I guess they they
(41:21):
never you can never countBaltimore out, even if they
start one and four with thatdivision.
The Browns certainly are not acontender.
The Bengals without Burrow don'tlook like a contender.
So uh yeah.
I don't know what to do withthat game.
Maybe pick I don't know.
Like I said, I'm not gonna makepredictions on these.
These are bad games, uh, butclose spreads.
(41:44):
Miami at Carolina plus 1.5.
Yeah.
I was looking at the both theseteams because I needed a
quarterback this week.
Um, I think I ended up settlingon starting a slightly injured
Jaden Daniels for Washingtonagainst the Eagles because my
(42:07):
other options were legit uh Tuaor Lil Bryce.
Uh I I these are two badquarterbacks.
These are two bad teams.
Somebody has to win, or maybethey'll tie, and Carolina would
cover in the event of a tie, soI don't know.
(42:28):
And then we've got the Giants atNew Orleans.
New Orleans one and a half pointfavorite there.
Uh, I'm not sure I get that.
Uh I know it's on the road, butthese are both very bad teams.
New Orleans hasn't won yet thisyear.
Uh I don't get it.
(42:48):
So, yeah.
So those are your bad games forthe week, so be careful.
Be careful out there.
You remember, you don't have tobet every game.
So maybe lay off some of thesebad games this week.
Uh let's go to some of the locksthis week.
First up, I love this one.
Lions.
Greg gave us lions minus eightand a half, the Bengals, the
Bengals.
The Bengals.
They score the first threepoints.
(43:09):
I'm sitting there with my wife.
My wife, obviously, has been onthe podcast.
This is a Broncos house.
She's a Broncos fan, so wesupport the Broncos in this
house.
Bengals go up 3-0.
It's a little quiet in ourhouse.
We're a little concerned.
Like I could tell she's she'snot super worried, but she's a
(43:31):
little like, hmm, they scored.
Our defense is pretty good.
What happened there?
Well, what happened is theyweren't quite awake at the
beginning of the game becausethat was all the Bengals scored
the whole game, three points.
They never, I don't know if theycrossed midfield again.
That game was so bad my wifefell asleep during it on Monday
night.
Now it was the second game, butit wasn't like it was super
(43:53):
late.
It started at 8.15.
But it was just such a bad game.
I mean, the Bengals, they justare awful.
They're horrible to watch.
I feel bad for people watchingthem.
Uh, one point late in the game,it was comical because I saw it,
you know, while it washappening, and I was like, huh.
I think Denver only rushed threepeople there.
(44:14):
Maybe they'll show a replay, butthey got the sack in like half a
second, but that can't be right.
Like, I must have missed, youknow, sometimes they are they're
very tricky with the blitzpackages.
You know, they have a guy on theline and he goes out in
coverage, and a linebackerswings in, and they, you know,
they uh defenses in the NFL arevery creative with their blitz
schemes.
So sometimes you miss an extraguy here or there.
(44:35):
No, no, they showed it onreplay, and I saw it many times
on social media.
The Broncos rushed three and gotto the quarterback in half a
second.
It was comical.
They had four guys, they hadthree linemen, and the halfback
step up, the halfback stepped upto the middle to block one guy.
They had four guys blocking oneguy in the middle, and then the
(44:56):
two edge rushers just whoopedthe tackles.
I mean, both tackles fell down,and they just sacked the
quarterback in half a second.
I mean, he had no time at all.
That Bengals line is an absolutejoke.
Uh, so the Lions, they're justgonna destroy the Bengals.
I mean, you could set this linehit 20, and I would still take
(45:16):
it at 20.
I mean, I might do the littleadjustment slider thing.
The Bengals may not score thisweek.
I mean, they just Browning looksso bad.
He looks like one of the worstbackup quarterbacks in the NFL.
I I can't believe they haven'tmade a phone call to try and get
anybody else.
I mean, they just they just lookso bad.
(45:40):
Horrible, embarrassing, bad.
Uh, we got Uncle Mike giving usChargers minus two and a half
against Washington.
Now, oh, I said earlier, uh, youknow, I thought Washington was
playing the Eagles.
They're playing the Chargers.
Uh, Jaden Daniels returns.
I said it earlier in thepodcast.
I'm not betting on the Chargersright now.
(46:01):
So I it's it's in LA, but I'mnot I'm not taking this one,
Uncle Mike.
The Chargers are on the banlist.
Maybe you didn't get the memo,but Justin Air Bear and the
Chargers are banned right now.
Jaden coming back.
Jaden didn't look too good inhis first two games.
Uh Uncle Mike's trying to talkme into taking the Chargers and
(46:23):
taking them off the ban list,but no.
I said it earlier.
The Chargers are banned.
I'm keeping it.
And then one last one, and thenI've got my lock this week, and
then we're wrapping it up here.
Steve gave us Notre Dame minus21.
They host Boise State this week.
Uh Steve, I don't know if yousaw this.
(46:43):
Notre Dame lost twice already,and uh they barely covered
against a two-win Purdue team athome.
Uh, and Purdue is much worsethan Boise State.
Uh and the spread was about thesame.
I think it was like 23, 24, andand they covered, but it would
they won by like 26.
It wasn't like they won by 40 orsomething, they barely beat
(47:05):
Purdue.
Uh I don't like this pick onebit.
I don't trust Notre Dame tocover 21.
I don't like this at all.
Not at all.
No, Steve.
No, no, no, no, no.
I don't 21's too much.
Notre Dame doesn't cover that.
Alright, this is the last onethis week.
(47:26):
This is my lock of the week.
And I am giving you, I'm I'mgoing out on a limb here.
I'm backing a rookie quarterbackon the road.
I'm giving you Giants plus oneand a half at New Orleans, and
I'm gonna tell you why.
You know, Dart didn't look greatlast week, but Spencer Rattler
(47:49):
is much worse.
He is a quarterback for NewOrleans.
He is 0-10 to start his career.
He is one of the worstquarterbacks ever with starting
his career.
Two more games, and he is tied.
If he gets to 0-12, he is tiedin second place all time with
(48:11):
losses to start a career.
That is just that is a stat.
I don't understand.
I said it earlier when I talkedabout this being a bad game.
This is a bad game, but this isthe one I'm gonna tell you to
bet on.
Out of all those bad games Igive you, this is my luck.
Giants, I sprinkle the moneyline, take them one and a half.
I bet them just straight upmoney line.
(48:31):
Giants are not losing this game.
Spencer Rattler will be 0-11.
He is a terrible quarterback.
Uh, but like I said, two more,and he is tied for second.
I'm gonna run through the listhere for you.
So this is when you thinkSpencer Rattler, think of these
people.
Uh he's currently tied with ZachMettenberger.
(48:52):
I don't know if you guysremember him.
He was with the Titans like, Idon't know, eight, ten years
ago.
Uh he actually finished hiscareer 0-10.
Uh, Brody Croyle, uh, KansasCity, 07 to 09, before Alex
Smith went there, before uh AndyReid went there as a coach.
(49:13):
They they had some very bad downyears in the late aughts.
Uh Brody Croyel from Kansas Citywent 0-10 there.
Derek Carr with the Raiders in2014 went 0-10.
And then you move up a littlebit.
Uh, if Spencer were to lose thisweek, he'd be tied with Stan
Gellenball from the CardinalsSeahawks in 91 and 92.
(49:36):
He started his career off 0-11.
Troy Aikman, people forget, andmaybe not with the documentary.
I think they talked about thisin the How about Them Cowboys
documentary thing on Netflix.
But in 89, his rookie year withthe Cowboys, Aikman started off
0-11.
They were very bad, the Cowboys,uh, in the 80s.
Uh, Jack Trudeau, this is who hewould be tied with.
(49:59):
This is the second all-time tostart his career, was with the
Colts in 86 and 87 when theyfirst moved to Indy there.
Jack Trudeau, 0-12 with theColts.
And then number one of all time,how can you forget him?
Number one, Deshaun Kaiser, 0-15with the Browns in 2017.
(50:21):
That was the year that they went0-16.
Uh and a little history on that.
It's not like the Browns had alot of talent at quarterback
that season.
So Deshaun went uh 0-15.
Their backups that year, Ilooked it up, were Cody Kessler,
(50:42):
who started his career 0-8 uhbefore being at the Browns, or
with the Browns.
He went 0-8 the year before.
He was with the Browns the yearbefore.
That's why they made the switchto Kaiser, because Cody Kessler
went 0-8.
And then Kevin Hogan, who losthis only NFL start.
He only started one game and itwas a loss.
So those were the backups.
So you got a guy that goes 0-5,a backup of 0-1, and another
(51:05):
backup of 0-8.
Not a lot of choices inCleveland.
That's why they have the jerseywith the quarterback names
listed, you know, a mile longabout all the quarterbacks
they've run through.
Just a bad organization.
Of course, the record would beowned by the Browns, but that's
my lock this week.
I'm giving you Giants plus oneand a half.
That is my lock.
(51:27):
That's gonna do it for thisweek's episode.
Check us out.
I'm doing all sorts of AI littlefun picks for all the locks, you
know, all eight locks everyweek.
I tweet them out, I post them onFacebook.
You can find me Andy Royce onFacebook, you can find me on
TikTok.
I post them on TikTok, I postthem on Twitter, uh X at TSS
(51:49):
Gambling.
Find me all there.
We'll be doing the dog picksthis week again.
Even though Lady is a littleinjured, I think she's gonna
struggle through it and make agood pick for Monday night.
But that is it for this week'sshow.
Thanks for listening and goodluck gambling, everybody.
Hey everybody, today is Thursday, October 2nd, and we
have a new edition of theSportsbook Sharps for you.
As always, I am your host, andthis week I am flying solo.
We have got a pack show, eventhough it's just me in the
studio this week.
You have to listen to my voiceand my voice alone.
(00:33):
We have a lot to talk about.
We got a lot of games I want toget to.
A few to recap from last week.
I have an old man yells atcloud.
I have a Stay Frosty.
But uh first we're going tostart with an injury update.
That's right, our first everinjury report here on the show.
(00:54):
Lady, Lady Liberty, our new dog,is on the injury list this week.
She is questionable with a paw.
Now she did participate inpractice today, but I don't know
if she's going to be ready tomake her pick for Monday night
football.
We've got a big game coming upMonday night, and uh she is out
(01:18):
with a paw right now.
So she, I don't know what shedid.
She leapt at me the other dayand broke a nail, turned it
sideways on her paw, had to takeher to the vet yesterday, on
Wednesday.
They had to put her onanesthesia for a little bit,
sedate her, cut the nail off.
(01:38):
It went all the way back to thepaw, so she is wearing one of
those goofy cone things rightnow, and she's got her front
right paw wrapped up.
Uh, the wrap will come offbefore the weekend, so maybe
she'll be able to hobble her wayto a victory.
But that is an update for Ladyon the injury list this week.
I want to be clear witheverybody with the gambling that
(02:00):
the dog is playing injured thisweek.
So just a heads up on hergambling pick.
Uh gambling update from lastweek, four and four.
Very meh.
Uh, after we dominated the weekbefore and went seven and one,
we regressed back to beingaverage uh at four and four.
I will say I am stillundefeated.
(02:24):
So we got that going for us.
But uh yeah, not a great week,and I keep picking the wrong
ones to bet from the gamblinggroup.
Maybe I just need to bet themall every week, but I'm picking
the ones that are losers, andthen I'm not betting the ones
that are winners.
So uh, yeah.
But that's the gambling update.
We have a few locks to go overthis week.
(02:44):
We've got my lock, of course,that we'll wrap the show up
with.
But we're gonna push a segmentup to the front because I gotta
talk about this right away.
You know, just like Ice Cubesaid, he said, yo, Dre, I got
something to say.
I'm putting my old man yells atcloud right up in the front
because I got a lot to say aboutcollege sports.
(03:05):
College sports are fine as theyare.
Stop messing with a nearlyperfect product.
Sure, there can be some tweaks.
The NIL, for instance, uh thename image likeness needs a
total overhaul.
Uh, the transfer rules alongwith it, every season is like
(03:27):
free agency.
Now, every time a coach getsfired, it fires off free agency
for those players in the middleof the season.
That that needs change.
They know they need to adjustthat.
It needs some tweaks.
However, this leads to my oldman yells at cloud moment.
Starting with basketball, thisis a hot rumor that's fresh off
(03:47):
the presses today.
Rumors are that the NCAAtournament expansion to 76 teams
overall is getting closer by theday.
Stop.
Just stop it.
68 is fine.
64 would be better.
We could get rid of those fourextra schools, but 68 is a fine
(04:09):
number.
We don't need no more.
They are just itching to put 12lost Big Ten and SEC schools on
the bubble and talk about, oh,isn't it sad this 12 team got
in, but this 12 loss team, youknow, 12 SEC losses, 12 Big Ten
losses.
This one didn't get in, but thisone did.
(04:31):
Okay.
I'm sorry.
If you have double digit losses,I don't want to hear anything
about you making it or notmaking it.
Maybe don't get double digitlosses in your conference.
I'm talking in the conference.
Disgusting.
I don't need it.
This would make the openinground, opening round, I'm doing
air quotes there, opening round,when very few people play.
I we don't call they called itthat in the article I read.
(04:54):
We don't call the first fourgames the opening round.
That's not the opening round.
They tried to do that uh andthen they changed it.
Uh that would be 12 games.
So 24 teams play a game to getdown to 12, and then 52 teams
would get a bye.
So you'd then you'd get to 64.
(05:15):
That's how you do the math.
That's a little math for youpeople out there that don't know
math.
Uh, 12 plus 52, 64.
I'm pretty sharp with the math.
Uh 52 teams would get a bye.
I don't like this one bit.
For one, it's too many teams.
I I already said it.
You're gonna be arguing thebubble watch is gonna be mostly
(05:37):
all double-digit teams, youknow, arguing over who had the
three worse losses than theother three worse losses, or
whatever.
It's gonna be just nobody wantsto hear that.
So that's the first thing.
Way too many teams, and they'regonna be very mediocre teams
that get in.
You know, if they were do thisand they would say, you know,
(06:00):
out of those extra teams thatget in now, because we're right
now we're at 68, so this wouldbe adding another eight teams.
Uh, those teams that get in,they have to all all eight of
them have to be from minorconferences, not the power four
conferences, then I could hearit.
You're throwing more A10 in,you're throwing more Mac in,
(06:22):
you're throwing uh Mountain Westin, all these other ones getting
more teams in, that's fine.
Because a lot of times there'steams with four or five losses
in some of these conferencesthat, you know, they didn't win
their conference tournament,they only send one, even though
they had a wonderful season,they won the regular season, you
know, they lost in thetournament and they're out.
I'd be totally fine with that.
(06:43):
Maybe that could be a provision.
See, I'm spitballing here on thefly.
You win your regular season, butyou don't win that conference
tournament.
Well, now with these extra eightteams, we pick eight of those
schools that happened into thatsituation and they make it in.
I'd be fine with that.
I mean, I'd rather just not addany.
But if they're gonna add them,don't add Power 4 teams that
(07:05):
are, you know, 12 through 15losses, and we're sitting there
and the teams 18 and 15, andwe're like, oh, I can't believe
they didn't make it in.
No, stop with that.
Second, and this is the moreimportant part, it's hard enough
to get people to fill out abracket in time.
They don't remember their login,even though you've used the same
(07:25):
credentials for 10 years atwork, you know, they you can't
get them to fill it in.
Now you want to try to push itup and try to get them in and to
fill out a 76 bracket by Tuesdayafternoon, because these games,
they said they're gonna playthem at two sites, six games at
each site.
Uh, so I would assume they'regonna play half of them on
(07:46):
Tuesday, six on Tuesday, six onWednesday.
Uh right now they play two onTuesday, two on Wednesday, but
nobody fills those out in thebracket.
But if we're doing 12 games, Iwould imagine you're gonna want
to fill the bracket out forthat.
So they're never gonna get thatin.
(08:06):
Uh I I just I don't know how youget this done.
I hate it.
Every time they bring upexpansion, it makes me want to
throw up a little bit in mymouth.
Ah, I can't stand it.
So that's part one of my old manyells of cloud.
This is gonna be a long old manyells of cloud, by the way.
The next part, it's still aboutcollege sports, but we're
(08:28):
talking, I guess football.
It didn't specifically sayfootball, I guess it would be
for all of it, but the paper ofrecord, that'd be the New York
Times for those that don't knowthat, is reporting that the Big
Ten, my boys, my conference,they are looking to inject
(08:48):
private equity into collegesports.
This is absolutely diabolical.
Did we learn nothing 35 yearsago when Richard Gere cut up
those companies in Pretty Woman?
Private equity will stripeverything from college sports
(09:12):
and leave it barren andunrecognizable.
No more classes.
How can you explain to the bunchof a room full of investment
bankers, oh, you know, we wouldhave played better on Saturday,
but you know, our yeah, youknow, our star wide receiver,
the backup quarterback, theydidn't they, you know, they had
(09:33):
the backup had to come in, buthe had a bunch of classes, so he
wasn't quite ready with all thegame film.
No.
Now I know they don't always goto classes or whatever, but they
still go, even if at NorthCarolina they make up the
classes, they don't ever dotheir homework, whatever.
A lot of schools still make thekids go to classes, not all of
them, but a lot of the schoolsstill make the kids go to
(09:55):
classes, still make them turn intheir homework.
They're not using AI to generatetheir papers or answers or
whatever, having somebody elsedo it for them.
There's still the appearancethat this is occurring.
But once private equity is in,they're not gonna go to class.
You're never gonna have a classwith a football student again at
any of these universities.
(10:16):
They're not gonna go.
Why would they go?
And if you think conferencerealignment's bad now, wait
until the capitalists decidethat they only want, I don't
know, we only want the top 20teams in a conference.
That's that's all we want.
We don't want, uh we're gonnacall it the big corporation.
(10:36):
You know, we're gonna take thebest of the big ten, we're gonna
take the Ohio States, theMichigans, you know, the big
brands, not even necessarily thebest teams, but who has the best
numbers.
You know, Georgia, we're gonnago to the SEC, we're gonna take
Georgia and Alabama and Texas,uh, you know, Texas is a big
name.
Uh, we're gonna take all theseschools.
(10:57):
We're maybe take Clemson fromthe ACC, and that's it.
We're gonna cut them all in abig conference, and we're gonna
call it the big corporateconference.
And uh there's no room for allthese other ones.
Uh Ohio State, Michigan, youhave a bunch of rivalry games
against Wisconsin and and uh youknow all these other schools,
Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern,all these other ones.
(11:19):
That's fine.
You guys aren't big TV people.
Like you don't you don't bringvalue.
That'll be what they start totalk about.
Instead of wins and losses,it'll be well, which school
brings value?
Who has a name brand orwhatever?
Uh there's no room for thesesmall teams in the new world
order.
You think they want a bunch ofdrunks from IU or a bunch of
(11:42):
farmers from West Lafayette?
Uh no.
They're gonna leave Bloomington,they're gonna leave West
Lafayette behind.
There's no room for them.
Uh Champaign, Illinois?
No.
Illinois, bye.
You're done.
You're not gonna be in this newbig corporate conference.
Uh Upstart Indiana is one of thebest stories in college football
(12:07):
the last two years.
They've been laying it on teamsthis year.
They struggled a little bit withIowa this week, but the rest of
the games this year, they'vebeen just drilling.
They drilled Illinois two weeksago.
And I know people said, oh, thiswas turning into an IU podcast.
I'm not an IU guy, but they're agood story.
That story doesn't exist in bigcorporate world.
Indiana is left behind in thedust.
(12:29):
They're not in the new Big Ten,they're not in the new world
order, they're out uh on theirown somewhere.
For the longest time, for ahundred years, you know, there
were gray seats at uh MemorialStadium or whatever the heck
it's called in Bloomington.
They their fans didn't show up.
They're not gonna be invited tothe big corporate event.
You can't sell out your ownplace, you have no room in this
(12:52):
new TV money world.
You're done.
You're stuck in uh they're gonnashove you in a closet with uh
Purdue and Illinois andNorthwestern and stuff like
that.
We're gonna call it the LittleMidwest Conference, brought to
you by Barbasol.
Uh, and that's the other thing.
Everything's gonna be branded.
If private equity's in, it's notgonna be it's it's bad today.
(13:12):
All the trophies, all the bowlgames are sponsored.
The conferences are gonna besponsored.
We're gonna have the Capital OneOhio State Buckeyes.
They're not gonna be called Ohiothe Ohio State.
It's gonna be called the CapitalOne Ohio State, brought to you
by State Farm.
Like, it's it's gonna beterrible.
They're gonna everything,everything's gonna have a brand
(13:33):
to it.
It's gonna be disgusting, gross.
I don't want any part of this.
Uh, and and it's wild to me.
The reason that this was in theNew York Times, the the reason
they said they were running toprivate equity like this, a lot
of these schools are taking onway too much debt for their
athletic programs to buildthings out.
(13:54):
They had the numbers.
Incredibly, Illinois led the BigTen.
They are$312 million in debt intheir athletic department.
What is Illinois spending$312million on?
Their product on the fieldstinks, their product on the
hardwood stinks.
I don't know where all thatmoney's going.
(14:16):
Their court is one of the worstcourts in the Big Ten.
Uh, I I just don't get it.
I don't understand that at all.
Terrible.
But that's my old man Yellows atCloud.
So we're gonna reset here.
I'm gonna cool down a little bitafter that.
Uh let's get into a recap here.
College football, let's recapthe week.
(14:38):
Speaking of Illinois, Illinoiswins, beats USC, gives USC their
first loss 34-32.
First loss of the year on Alaskain field goal.
Illinois just lost to IU 63 to10.
I don't understand.
Is USC not that good?
Was this a case of the WestCoast team uh playing East?
(15:03):
This was a noon kickoff, so itwas 9 a.m.
on the West Coast.
That's when USC played.
So is that the case?
I don't know.
But be on the lookout.
As USC has a bye, and then theyplay in Michigan, and then at
Notre Dame the next twoweekends.
Now is Notre Dame good or bad?
I don't know.
Is USC good or bad?
I don't know.
These are gonna be tell-allgames.
(15:25):
You're gonna know a lot afterthese next two weeks, three
weeks, I guess, because they'reoff on bye this week.
Uh but those games are both set7.30 at night.
So 4.30 Pacific.
So maybe they'll be okay.
I'm not sure.
Uh, but that's one game fromlast week.
The next one I want to get to,Ole Miss beat LSU.
(15:45):
Matt was right.
I don't know why I didn't see itcoming.
Brian Kelly often loses thesebig games, and LSU did.
I sat here on the podcast anddebated it with him, and I
thought, you know, Lane alsoloses these sometimes, but not
nearly as much as Brian Kelly.
So hats off to Matt for gettingthat right.
Uh Bama beats Georgia 24-21.
(16:08):
Uh, okay.
Georgia's offense stinks.
So does Bama's.
Bama's not great either.
Uh we were flipping back andforth between the game last
week.
We had Oregon, Penn State, andGeorgia, Alabama at the same
time.
This is how much their offensestinks both teams in this
(16:29):
Bama-Georgia game.
Here's the second half drives.
Miss field goal, touchdown, losson downs, punt, punt, loss on
downs, punt, punt, kneel down toend the game.
One score the entire secondhalf.
(16:49):
Just one score.
Just a terrible game.
Terrible offenses.
It wasn't a defensive battle.
The offenses were just wildlyinept.
There were throws that weresailing five, six yards over
people, missed timing on routes.
Their offense is just gross.
(17:12):
And here's a fun stat.
Georgia, a favorite of theSportsbook Sharps here.
We love to do what's that comingdown the track?
We've picked them twice thisyear with our locks.
Georgia, the Bulldogs.
Oh, ho, ho, ho.
0-4 against the spread thisyear.
They are bums, and I am banningthem from being selected again
(17:35):
until they cover a spread.
You're 0-4 on the year?
Gross.
You are shameful, and you'rebanned.
Not allowed to be picked.
And then game of the week,Oregon 30, Penn State 24.
Double overtime game.
Penn State scores first.
Then they don't score againuntil the end of the game.
(17:55):
They were down 17-3 in thefourth quarter.
So we are in the third quarter.
We kept it on the Bama gameinstead.
Then we saw, you know, PennState was driving.
We flipped back over.
They scored.
They scored again to tie it inthe fourth quarter.
Overtime was electric.
Penn State scored almostimmediately.
Then Oregon took a little bit toget their touchdown in, but they
(18:18):
tied up, go to the secondovertime.
Oregon scores on one play.
And then the very next play,Penn State gets the ball.
Interception.
Unbelievable.
Unbelievable.
I loved it.
The Oregon players, they runover to the Penn State fan
section.
The Penn State fan section hadbeen giving them lip all game.
Oh, we're going to beat you,blah, blah, blah.
I loved it.
The Oregon players went over andwaved goodbye to them.
(18:40):
I loved it.
I absolutely loved it.
NFL highlights Sunday nightfootball.
And I only call this ahighlight, at least it was high
scoring, right, folks?
Dallas Green Bay tie at 40.
I only bring this up becauseit's the second highest scoring
tie ever.
The record is 43.
(19:01):
There was a game, I think itsaid it was like 1967.
I forget who the two teams were,but they tied at 43.
So this is the second highestscore ever.
It was very funny.
My mom texts me when the gamewas over.
She said, this can end in a tie.
And my sister-in-law said thesame thing.
Tara, she's like, wait a minute,they're just gonna end the game
(19:23):
at 40?
I'm like, yep, that's uh that'show the regular season NFL
works.
You play one 10-minute overtime,and if it's tied at the end of
that, that's it.
Everybody uh enjoy.
Um I don't know what to makeafter this game.
Uh the you know, I think if theCowboys had CeeDee Lamb, they'd
(19:44):
probably win that game.
Even though Pickens wasincredible, uh, you know, the
Cowboys defense is a sieve.
They I Jordan Love is not thatgood.
I I you know I I sat here withDarby weeks ago and proclaimed
that I loved, you know, forpeople that weren't in the top
(20:05):
five or whatever, pick a SuperBowl kind of a dark horse or
whatever.
I said I get I love theStollers, you know, with Rogers
going there, and I love GreenBay with getting Micah Parsons.
I don't I'm a little lukewarm onGreen Bay now.
That love is not looking thatgood this year.
I know they scored 40 points,but Russ just cooked the Cowboys
(20:28):
for 40-some points two weeksago, and he's on the bench now.
So that doesn't mean much you'dscore a lot against the Cowboys.
So I don't know what to thinkabout Green Bay.
I need to see some more tape onGreen Bay, but I'm a little
worried.
I put a future out on Green Bayto win the Super Bowl after they
got Parsons.
Now I'm thinking maybe not Supi.
Uh maybe playoffs, but not SuperBowl.
(20:52):
I don't know.
I don't know.
We'll see.
I'm a little lukewarm on thepack for now, but we'll see.
We'll see after some more games.
Uh speaking of teams, I'mflip-flopping on the Giants and
Jackson Dart stunned theChargers to get their first win
of the season.
I thought this was slam dunkChargers.
(21:12):
When they said Dart wasstarting, you know, I obviously
I'm not a Russ guy.
I don't need Russ hasn't beencooking for many, many years.
He's been uh kind of bad.
You know, he bounced to Denver.
He was bad in Denver, wasn'tgreat with the Steelers last
year, and now he's with theGiants and he's already benched.
Uh, so it's not like I'm a proRussell Wilson guy, but I just
(21:33):
thought, you know, rookieplaying the Chargers, no way
this guy's gonna win.
They won.
I was wrong.
Uh Air Bear reverted to stinkform again.
Uh, you can't trust this guy.
That's a you know, I I said Ibanned Georgia from being bet.
For right now, the Chargers arebanned from being bet as well.
(21:53):
I'm not I'm not buying it.
You can't trust Air Bear.
I don't want to bet, I want tobet on sure things.
That's what we do here.
That's why I'm undefeated in mylocks on the season.
That's why I proudly standbehind my choices.
I cannot be putting money onpeople like Justin Air Bear.
He's a bum.
(22:14):
I've always thought he's a bum.
He looked really good last year.
They started off 3-0 this year.
I thought they were lookinggood.
You can't, you can't lose.
You can't throw two picks.
You cannot lose to this Giantsteam.
Everybody and their brother'sinjured on the Giants.
And they started a rookiequarterback in his first game,
and you lose that game.
Great NFL quarterbacks don'tlose that game.
(22:36):
Air Bear is not a great NFLquarterback.
So banned.
Not betting on the Chargers fora while.
I need to see more from thembefore I lift the ban on that.
Uh, Philly beat Tampa Bay by sixas Baker ran out of time to
complete the comeback.
Once again, Philly playing in aclose game.
I think they're a fake 4-0.
(22:57):
I'm saying it here.
And the Eagles fans, they'regonna cry and complain and
they're gonna whine and they'regonna swear at me because that's
what the Philly scumbag fans do.
But because they're gonna say,oh, this podcast, they always
think that the Eagles are worsethan they are.
Look, Jalen Hurts stakes.
Zero pass completions in thesecond half.
(23:20):
Think of that.
In today's day and age of airthe football out, you know,
quarterbacks are slinging it 40,50 times a game.
That's the average, 40 times agame.
Throwing the ball.
He only had eight attempts inthe second half, and he
completed zero.
Zero.
Uh and Brown, he is so out.
(23:41):
He he had some weird quote afterthe game about how you just kind
of have to move on, but he is sochecked out of the Eagles, like
he is getting mad on thesidelines.
There's gonna be some problemsthere because you got a guy that
only attempts eight passes andand not getting the wide
receiver star of the ball.
Uh yeah, I don't get it.
They got up 24-3 and said, Well,the only way we can lose this
(24:03):
game is if Jalen Hurts throws abunch of picks, so we're just
not gonna let him throw thatmuch.
Uh, I don't know.
I it still stuns me.
I'm still shocked that theEagles won the Super Bowl last
year.
I I don't get it.
You start the second half andrun the clock mode.
I don't get it.
You're one of the best teams.
You're supposed to just dominateteams like this, Tampa Bay.
(24:24):
Uh it's a wild thing to do toenter in run the clock mode to
start the second half, but itworked for them.
They ran the clock out.
If Baker had 15 more seconds, wemay be sitting here saying that,
you know, Tampa Bay beat them byone, but they ran out of clock.
And then the last game from lastweek I want to get to, Kansas
(24:44):
City beats Baltimore.
Uh duh.
You think?
I picked Kansas City for my lockof the week.
Of course they're gonna cover.
Lock it in.
Uh second half, Lamar Jacksongoes down.
He goes out.
He's out this week as well.
I looked it up.
Baltimore has 11 starters on theinjury report this week.
(25:07):
Yikes.
That is not good.
Uh adjust your bets this weekaccordingly.
I forget uh I had it up here.
Where is the Baltimore?
Houston at Baltimore.
So just keep that in mind whenyou see that line.
Just keep in mind No Lamar and10 other starters are on the
(25:31):
injury report.
Not just 11 players, you know,but 11 players total out of 52
being on the injury report aquarter of the way through the
season.
That's not surprising.
11 starters.
That's uh alarm bells are goingoff.
Alright.
Now I'm gonna get to my stavefrosty here, and we got a coach
(25:53):
uh oh wait, I gotta do a littlerecap here, real quick.
We have a new addition to thecoaches fired.
Sam Pittman at year six of inArkansas was let go this week.
So he joins Deshaun Foster atUCLA, Brent Pry at Virginia
Tech, Mike Gundy at OklahomaState.
All those coaches have beenfired this season already.
(26:16):
I'm putting another new one upon Stave Frosty.
New for me.
I think others that have been aguest on here have put him up
before, but I am putting up, andI talked about this game
earlier, Penn State head coachJames Franklin.
James Franklin can never everwin a big game.
(26:37):
Here's some stats for you.
His career record, he is 1 and15 versus the top five, he is 4
and 21 against the top 10, andhe is 4 and 17 against the Ohio
State Buckeyes and the MichiganWolverines.
(27:00):
4 and 17.
This is a school, Penn State,that is always in the top 25.
They're consistently in the top15, and they are often in the
top 10, and it's a joke.
I'm sorry, if you have a 4 and21 career record against the top
(27:25):
10, that's not what top 10schools do.
Top 10, I'm not saying it shouldbe 500.
They should maybe be 30%.
You win a third of the time.
You know, if you're if you'replaying ones and twos and
you're, you know, four, five,six, you should beat them
(27:45):
sometimes.
You shouldn't go four andtwenty-one against top ten.
That's just bad.
Uh, fun fact for you too PennState and Texas this season,
we're in week six.
We're heading into week six ofcollege football season.
Penn State and Texas, the onlytwo teams in the top 25 that
have not beaten a power fouropponent.
(28:06):
It's incredible.
We're heading into the sixthweek, and they don't have a
power four win yet.
So all their wins are againstbad schools.
If Penn State is happy being inthe top 15, then yeah, keep him.
I'll take him off the FrostyThrone.
You're happy being in the top15, and that's where you cap
out, like, oh, you're a top 15school.
Uh, but if you ever want to wina big game, if you ever want to
(28:29):
win a title, then you will yeetthis man into the sun.
He's a loser.
He's been there 12 years.
They have one Big Ten title in2016 to show for it in 12 years.
One Big Ten title.
How how a team is cons is oftenduring the season in the top 10,
(28:52):
but they've only won one Big Tentitle is incredible to me.
The media department just mustbe absurd there.
They they are such a good brand.
We are Penn State, all thisstuff.
Oh, they, you know, the call andresponse and all that crap.
Just incredible marketing byPenn State.
Uh, but Penn State, you'resupposed to be one of the
(29:12):
premier football programs.
Uh, in its first 14 years in theBig Ten, Joe Pa won the Big Ten
title three times.
Franklin has been there almostas long.
He only has one title.
And he's not picking up anotherone this year.
So they still, Penn State, haveto play at Ohio State, and they
(29:33):
host Indiana.
I think that's two more losses.
Uh is Penn State fine with threelosses and a New Year's Eve bowl
game?
I guess we'll see at the end ofthe season, because I think
that's where they're heading.
They're heading for a three lossseason, and uh, you know, maybe
they'll play in the MeinikeCarbowl brought to you by
Meinikey, whatever, brought toyou by Old Spice.
(29:57):
Uh stay Frosty J.
James Franklin.
Alright, now let's get into thebig games for this week, and
then we'll get into the locksand wrap it up.
Wrap it up this week.
First game up.
Not a lot of big games incollege football.
This is kind of a lull.
We're in the middle of thecollege football season.
(30:18):
It's time to hit lull mode,apparently.
We got number 16, Vandy, andnumber 10, Bama.
10 and a half point favorites,Alabama.
Vandy did it last year.
It had been forever.
I think they said it had beensince 1984 or something like
that, that they beat Alabama.
(30:39):
I think they've run it back.
I think they could beat himagain.
Vandy's looking good this year.
This Bama team didn't lookgreat.
I talked about it in the Georgiagame.
Their offense stinks.
They didn't score.
Bama didn't score in the secondhalf.
They missed a field goal, andthat was as close as they got.
I don't trust Bama.
I almost made this my lock.
(31:00):
This was borderline lockmaterial here.
But, you know, just sometimesVan Dy.
They didn't.
No show.
So so I didn't make it my lock,but I do like it.
I am gonna bet it.
I am gonna take Vany plus 10.5.
I might sprinkle a little moneyline just because I I don't
believe in Bama.
I don't think Bama covers 10.5.
(31:22):
That's so many points for a teamthat doesn't score.
I just it I I just I don't Idon't see it.
10 and a half.
I know it's at Bama.
I just I don't see it.
I don't see it.
I almost ah man, I wish I hadmade that my lock.
You know what?
I'm not gonna, it's not my lock.
I already picked my lock, Ialready sent it out to the
gambling group.
(31:43):
But boy, it's like lockadjacent.
Oh, it's right there.
I just bam, I don't believe inthem.
Well, I'm only gonna talk aboutone other college game this
week.
Uh we got number three Miami atnumber eight, Florida State.
Florida State at home, four anda half point home dog.
(32:03):
I don't know what to make ofthis game.
Uh both teams have a big top 25win in week one, but they're
against schools that I don't arethey having a down year?
Like FSU beat Bama.
I just said I don't trust Bama.
So is that a big win?
I mean, they just beat Georgia,so maybe.
I guess it's a big win still.
Uh, and then Miami beat NotreDame, and I I'm not high on
(32:24):
Notre Dame.
I guess it depends on what youthink of those two schools.
Like, is Notre Dame more fake oris it Bama more fake this year?
So that's gonna be how you kindof decide what you bet here.
Uh, Florida State, number one onoffense, Miami, number nine
overall on defense.
(32:46):
I think I'd like FSU to coverfour and a half.
I I don't know if they're gonnawin, but four and a half when
you score as much as FSU does, Ithink they said they were
averaging 53 a game or somethinglike that.
Number one offense in all theland.
I I kind of tend to decide likethe offense, it's at home.
The offense will still work,even though they're against a
(33:07):
very tough top ten defense.
I I think they cover it.
I think they cover the four anda half.
So I'm leaning FSU, but uhthat's my thoughts on that game.
I guess, like I said, thinkabout what you think about Miami
over Notre Dame, FSU over Bama,and use that to kind of
configure what you're gonna betthere.
(33:28):
The bye week start.
We're going to the NFL.
Bye weeks already.
Bears, Falcons, Packers, Stolerson a bye this week.
Thursday night football.
We're gonna look at that gamefirst.
It's Thursday, and we're talkingThursday night football.
Both teams are 3-1.
(33:49):
We've got San Francisco at LosAngeles Rams.
Rams minus 8.5.
No Brock Purdy.
That's official as of thismorning.
Brock Purdy is out for the game.
They have so many injuries forSan Francisco.
No Kittle, no Purdy, no Ayuk, noJennings.
(34:09):
And I counted, I'm not going tolist them all.
There were like 14 other peoplethat were injured or out for
tonight, questionable or out fortonight.
Uh I think the Rams are legit.
They're 3-1.
Obviously, both teams are 3-1.
3-1 is a very good record.
But the Rams, they had twoblocked field goals in the
(34:30):
fourth quarter.
Either field goal would havegiven them the lead against the
Eagles.
I like them to cover 8 12.
I love the Rams here.
Uh I think they cover it.
Another big game.
Uh, I think both these teams arethree and one as well.
Tampa Bay and Seattle.
Seattle minus three and a half.
(34:53):
Seattle at home is very good.
I I don't know if they coverthree and a half.
I'm kind of a Baker believer.
I kind of like them on the road,but I they didn't cover last
week against the Eagles, and Ithink the Eagles are fake good.
So I think you gotta kind oflean Seattle here, minus three
and a half.
It's at home.
(35:13):
I I think they win it.
Uh, do they cover three and ahalf?
Oh, that hook, that hook couldget you.
It could be a three-point game,and you could be sitting there
thinking, oh, I should havebought the hook.
This one's gonna be a tight one.
I like to watch this game onSunday.
Another one, Kansas City atJacksonville, another three and
a half point spread.
Jacksonville home dogs, threeand a half point home dogs.
(35:37):
I I think after last weekagainst Baltimore, though,
Kansas City's turning it on.
Jacksonville's very good.
It's in Duval, but I think Ilike Kansas City to win by four
more here.
I think they're they're turningit on.
They had a little lull at thebeginning of the season where
they started one and two.
Now they're two and two.
(35:59):
That was a big win againstBaltimore.
Uh, you know, that was Mattcalled that a loser leaves town
match last week.
1-2 Baltimore versus 1-3 KansasCity.
Lamar gets hurt.
I mean, Baltimore's fortuneslook totally upside down now uh
compared to where they sat aweek ago at 1-2.
Now they're 1-3 with a hurtLamar, and Kansas City's 2-2.
(36:20):
They're right there.
The Chargers lost last week,surprisingly, to the Giants.
So I think now this is whenKansas City starts to win.
All the Swifties are, you know,getting back into the football
now that they're 2-2 and allthat stuff.
So uh Yeah.
(36:40):
I think you take Kansas Cityhere, even though it's in
Jacksonville.
In Duval.
I think you pick uh Yeah, Ithink you pick Kansas City to
cover it.
Uh okay.
There are a lot of close spreadbad team games this week.
I'm gonna run through them.
I'm not gonna give you picks onall of them, but be careful out
(37:02):
there this weekend.
These are five games thatfeature what I think are bad
teams, but it's a close spread.
So when bad teams get closespreads, it's a bad team off.
It could flip either way, sojust be careful.
We're gonna start with Dallas atNew York Jets.
Jets, two and a half point homedogs.
(37:27):
I mean, Dallas's offense looksgreat.
Their defense looks like one ofthe worst in the league.
It's incredible to me.
I don't, I don't, I can't makeheads or tails.
I mean, how do you not stop ateam from scoring 40?
They've given up 40 over 40 plustwice this season.
I I don't I don't understand it.
And the Jets just they stink.
(37:49):
They're 0-3.
They stink.
They they stink.
But I don't know what to dohere.
Like, does do the Cowboys giveup a bunch of points?
Do they not cover two and ahalf?
I think the Cowboys win thegame.
It's at New York.
Maybe they don't win the game.
They're 1-2-1 on this season.
It's not like it would besurprising if they went 1-3-1.
Uh I don't know.
(38:11):
Be careful.
Uh Minnesota Cleveland inLondon.
Now, Cleveland's made a change.
Joe Flacco is out.
He's done.
They did not go to Shador.
They went to their other rookiethat they drafted.
I don't.
Shador had a weird pressconference this week.
He he he spoke in mime.
I guess did you say spoke?
I don't.
(38:31):
Mimes don't speak.
I don't know what you would say.
He just kind of motioned throughsome stuff.
He was being very weird.
I think he's very big mad thathe is not the starting
quarterback that they went withthe other guy, uh, whose name
escapes me at this moment.
Um Dylan Gabriel.
I think that's his name.
Uh, but look it up at home.
(38:51):
Whatever.
I I think I've taken Minnesotahere, but boy, uh Carson Wentz
looks so bad last week.
He he looked like Carson Wentzof old.
He had that cute little CarsonWentz game two weeks ago where
they won by a million, and theywere like, oh, maybe he should
replace JJ for this season.
You know, they're poised to winthis year.
(39:12):
And then he went over to Irelandlast week uh with all his ginger
pals, and he threw a bunch ofwounded ducks all around Ireland
and looked terrible, and theSteelers, the Steelers were
beating on them pretty good.
They let him back into it at theend.
It was only maybe a three-pointgame, but at one point, it was
like a 20-point game.
Uh yeah, they didn't look goodover there.
(39:33):
Now they do have the advantage.
They stayed the week.
So Minnesota's been over acrossthe pond here for a couple uh
two two weeks now, a week and ahalf, whatever.
So maybe that gives them theedge to cover four.
I don't know.
I just don't like putting moneyon Carson Wentz.
Like, I just I don't.
I I told I said last week I'dlike the Steelers, and they
(39:53):
covered, and uh just CarsonWentz.
That's uh these are two badteams.
Starting a rookie quarterback inLondon, I shh I don't know.
Oof.
So that's your options.
You either are back in CarsonWentz or you're back in a rookie
quarterback on the road inLondon.
Uh so yeah, that's a bad game.
Houston at Baltimore.
(40:14):
Houston finally gets their firstwin last season, last week.
Uh Baltimore 1-3.
Like I said, no Lamar.
Baltimore two-point underdog athome.
What I I don't I don't know whatthis is another one.
It's like you could flip a coinfor this one.
I have no idea.
Baltimore without Lamar?
Maybe Derrick Henry just carriesthem to victory and they win it
(40:36):
outright.
I it I if they go one and four,I think you can mark their
season done.
The Steelers are ahead of them.
I guess that's it.
The Bengals, they're withoutBurrow for weeks.
Alright, maybe reverse course.
Maybe not quite done at one andfour.
(40:56):
Because there's always Rogers isa malcontent.
He could all of a sudden in themiddle of the season be mad.
He was big mad.
He didn't like that the teamdidn't travel earlier.
He would have preferred to havegone to London early.
He said in the press conferencethat he disagreed with the way
the team was handling it.
And we were only in week four,and Rogers is already saying he
didn't like how something washandled.
So he's uh often a malcontent,and uh so I guess they they
(41:21):
never you can never countBaltimore out, even if they
start one and four with thatdivision.
The Browns certainly are not acontender.
The Bengals without Burrow don'tlook like a contender.
So uh yeah.
I don't know what to do withthat game.
Maybe pick I don't know.
Like I said, I'm not gonna makepredictions on these.
These are bad games, uh, butclose spreads.
(41:44):
Miami at Carolina plus 1.5.
Yeah.
I was looking at the both theseteams because I needed a
quarterback this week.
Um, I think I ended up settlingon starting a slightly injured
Jaden Daniels for Washingtonagainst the Eagles because my
(42:07):
other options were legit uh Tuaor Lil Bryce.
Uh I I these are two badquarterbacks.
These are two bad teams.
Somebody has to win, or maybethey'll tie, and Carolina would
cover in the event of a tie, soI don't know.
(42:28):
And then we've got the Giants atNew Orleans.
New Orleans one and a half pointfavorite there.
Uh, I'm not sure I get that.
Uh I know it's on the road, butthese are both very bad teams.
New Orleans hasn't won yet thisyear.
Uh I don't get it.
(42:48):
So, yeah.
So those are your bad games forthe week, so be careful.
Be careful out there.
You remember, you don't have tobet every game.
So maybe lay off some of thesebad games this week.
Uh let's go to some of the locksthis week.
First up, I love this one.
Lions.
Greg gave us lions minus eightand a half, the Bengals, the
Bengals.
The Bengals.
They score the first threepoints.
(43:09):
I'm sitting there with my wife.
My wife, obviously, has been onthe podcast.
This is a Broncos house.
She's a Broncos fan, so wesupport the Broncos in this
house.
Bengals go up 3-0.
It's a little quiet in ourhouse.
We're a little concerned.
Like I could tell she's she'snot super worried, but she's a
(43:31):
little like, hmm, they scored.
Our defense is pretty good.
What happened there?
Well, what happened is theyweren't quite awake at the
beginning of the game becausethat was all the Bengals scored
the whole game, three points.
They never, I don't know if theycrossed midfield again.
That game was so bad my wifefell asleep during it on Monday
night.
Now it was the second game, butit wasn't like it was super
(43:53):
late.
It started at 8.15.
But it was just such a bad game.
I mean, the Bengals, they justare awful.
They're horrible to watch.
I feel bad for people watchingthem.
Uh, one point late in the game,it was comical because I saw it,
you know, while it washappening, and I was like, huh.
I think Denver only rushed threepeople there.
(44:14):
Maybe they'll show a replay, butthey got the sack in like half a
second, but that can't be right.
Like, I must have missed, youknow, sometimes they are they're
very tricky with the blitzpackages.
You know, they have a guy on theline and he goes out in
coverage, and a linebackerswings in, and they, you know,
they uh defenses in the NFL arevery creative with their blitz
schemes.
So sometimes you miss an extraguy here or there.
(44:35):
No, no, they showed it onreplay, and I saw it many times
on social media.
The Broncos rushed three and gotto the quarterback in half a
second.
It was comical.
They had four guys, they hadthree linemen, and the halfback
step up, the halfback stepped upto the middle to block one guy.
They had four guys blocking oneguy in the middle, and then the
(44:56):
two edge rushers just whoopedthe tackles.
I mean, both tackles fell down,and they just sacked the
quarterback in half a second.
I mean, he had no time at all.
That Bengals line is an absolutejoke.
Uh, so the Lions, they're justgonna destroy the Bengals.
I mean, you could set this linehit 20, and I would still take
(45:16):
it at 20.
I mean, I might do the littleadjustment slider thing.
The Bengals may not score thisweek.
I mean, they just Browning looksso bad.
He looks like one of the worstbackup quarterbacks in the NFL.
I I can't believe they haven'tmade a phone call to try and get
anybody else.
I mean, they just they just lookso bad.
(45:40):
Horrible, embarrassing, bad.
Uh, we got Uncle Mike giving usChargers minus two and a half
against Washington.
Now, oh, I said earlier, uh, youknow, I thought Washington was
playing the Eagles.
They're playing the Chargers.
Uh, Jaden Daniels returns.
I said it earlier in thepodcast.
I'm not betting on the Chargersright now.
(46:01):
So I it's it's in LA, but I'mnot I'm not taking this one,
Uncle Mike.
The Chargers are on the banlist.
Maybe you didn't get the memo,but Justin Air Bear and the
Chargers are banned right now.
Jaden coming back.
Jaden didn't look too good inhis first two games.
Uh Uncle Mike's trying to talkme into taking the Chargers and
(46:23):
taking them off the ban list,but no.
I said it earlier.
The Chargers are banned.
I'm keeping it.
And then one last one, and thenI've got my lock this week, and
then we're wrapping it up here.
Steve gave us Notre Dame minus21.
They host Boise State this week.
Uh Steve, I don't know if yousaw this.
(46:43):
Notre Dame lost twice already,and uh they barely covered
against a two-win Purdue team athome.
Uh, and Purdue is much worsethan Boise State.
Uh and the spread was about thesame.
I think it was like 23, 24, andand they covered, but it would
they won by like 26.
It wasn't like they won by 40 orsomething, they barely beat
(47:05):
Purdue.
Uh I don't like this pick onebit.
I don't trust Notre Dame tocover 21.
I don't like this at all.
Not at all.
No, Steve.
No, no, no, no, no.
I don't 21's too much.
Notre Dame doesn't cover that.
Alright, this is the last onethis week.
(47:26):
This is my lock of the week.
And I am giving you, I'm I'mgoing out on a limb here.
I'm backing a rookie quarterbackon the road.
I'm giving you Giants plus oneand a half at New Orleans, and
I'm gonna tell you why.
You know, Dart didn't look greatlast week, but Spencer Rattler
(47:49):
is much worse.
He is a quarterback for NewOrleans.
He is 0-10 to start his career.
He is one of the worstquarterbacks ever with starting
his career.
Two more games, and he is tied.
If he gets to 0-12, he is tiedin second place all time with
(48:11):
losses to start a career.
That is just that is a stat.
I don't understand.
I said it earlier when I talkedabout this being a bad game.
This is a bad game, but this isthe one I'm gonna tell you to
bet on.
Out of all those bad games Igive you, this is my luck.
Giants, I sprinkle the moneyline, take them one and a half.
I bet them just straight upmoney line.
(48:31):
Giants are not losing this game.
Spencer Rattler will be 0-11.
He is a terrible quarterback.
Uh, but like I said, two more,and he is tied for second.
I'm gonna run through the listhere for you.
So this is when you thinkSpencer Rattler, think of these
people.
Uh he's currently tied with ZachMettenberger.
(48:52):
I don't know if you guysremember him.
He was with the Titans like, Idon't know, eight, ten years
ago.
Uh he actually finished hiscareer 0-10.
Uh, Brody Croyle, uh, KansasCity, 07 to 09, before Alex
Smith went there, before uh AndyReid went there as a coach.
(49:13):
They they had some very bad downyears in the late aughts.
Uh Brody Croyel from Kansas Citywent 0-10 there.
Derek Carr with the Raiders in2014 went 0-10.
And then you move up a littlebit.
Uh, if Spencer were to lose thisweek, he'd be tied with Stan
Gellenball from the CardinalsSeahawks in 91 and 92.
(49:36):
He started his career off 0-11.
Troy Aikman, people forget, andmaybe not with the documentary.
I think they talked about thisin the How about Them Cowboys
documentary thing on Netflix.
But in 89, his rookie year withthe Cowboys, Aikman started off
0-11.
They were very bad, the Cowboys,uh, in the 80s.
Uh, Jack Trudeau, this is who hewould be tied with.
(49:59):
This is the second all-time tostart his career, was with the
Colts in 86 and 87 when theyfirst moved to Indy there.
Jack Trudeau, 0-12 with theColts.
And then number one of all time,how can you forget him?
Number one, Deshaun Kaiser, 0-15with the Browns in 2017.
(50:21):
That was the year that they went0-16.
Uh and a little history on that.
It's not like the Browns had alot of talent at quarterback
that season.
So Deshaun went uh 0-15.
Their backups that year, Ilooked it up, were Cody Kessler,
(50:42):
who started his career 0-8 uhbefore being at the Browns, or
with the Browns.
He went 0-8 the year before.
He was with the Browns the yearbefore.
That's why they made the switchto Kaiser, because Cody Kessler
went 0-8.
And then Kevin Hogan, who losthis only NFL start.
He only started one game and itwas a loss.
So those were the backups.
So you got a guy that goes 0-5,a backup of 0-1, and another
(51:05):
backup of 0-8.
Not a lot of choices inCleveland.
That's why they have the jerseywith the quarterback names
listed, you know, a mile longabout all the quarterbacks
they've run through.
Just a bad organization.
Of course, the record would beowned by the Browns, but that's
my lock this week.
I'm giving you Giants plus oneand a half.
That is my lock.
(51:27):
That's gonna do it for thisweek's episode.
Check us out.
I'm doing all sorts of AI littlefun picks for all the locks, you
know, all eight locks everyweek.
I tweet them out, I post them onFacebook.
You can find me Andy Royce onFacebook, you can find me on
TikTok.
I post them on TikTok, I postthem on Twitter, uh X at TSS
(51:49):
Gambling.
Find me all there.
We'll be doing the dog picksthis week again.
Even though Lady is a littleinjured, I think she's gonna
struggle through it and make agood pick for Monday night.
But that is it for this week'sshow.
Thanks for listening and goodluck gambling, everybody.
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