Joe Tansey Interview -- 9/23/23

Joe Tansey joins MHJ to go over the biggest slate of great #CollegeFootball games of the season so far as they dive into plays for Week 4!

Episode Transcript

(00:20):
I keep check she was nevertheless,call Nick Quizna. Maybe al right,
fresh place, Maybe al right,he say, welcome back. She was
off cover radio show. We're bringingon one of our favorite guests here from
right here at the Gambler. Itis Joe Tanzi, who I'm sure has

(00:42):
about forty five college football plays thathe's looking at this weekend. I'm sure
he already has a bunch tonight aswell as I'm sure there's like nine Union
games this weekend as well. Soyou can check Joe Tanzy out on Twitter
at Jay Tansy ninety covers soccer forBleacher Report. He also covers everything.
I mean, he's just what didSean Brace call you again? The I

(01:07):
feel like I'm just like the SwissArmy Knights at this point. Yeah's describe
me the everything share or so Iforget what he said. I forget what
the what the terminology was for it, but hey, I mean, yeah,
no one, no one covers aswide of a range of topics as
Joe Tansy, and he does acollege football preview show every week. I
hopped on it a couple of weeksago. He's been doing it with John

(01:27):
Janson a couple weeks in a rownow, it's always great stuff. And
I mean, what a week topreview here, Joe. I mean,
this is I think the stat isit's the most ranked matchups in the history
of September in college football. Itfeels to me like there are more heavyweight
matchups this weekend that I can rememberin a handful of years outside of maybe

(01:51):
conference championship weekend. This is aloaded, loaded slate and there's only one
place to start. And obviously Ihave my biases. My heart is in
South Bend, Indiana on Saturday night, and Joe Tansy, as a guy
whose opinion I very much respect,I'm hoping, I'm hoping, against hope

(02:12):
that you talk me into having beliefand that you're on my side. Here.
Where are you at in this OhioestState Notre Dame game? I'm on
your side? Friend. Wow.Look here's what I put down too.
And like, everybody has their differentways of breaking down college football games,
and I respect that, But theway I kind of simplify it basically is

(02:37):
you have a quarterback in Sam Hartmanwho's been through the ringer, played some
big games. This is Cola McCord'sfirst true road game running backs, you
can say pretty much even between Hendersonand esteem Ay. And then if you
look at what Notre Dame jud lastyear against Ohio State defensively, they helped
Marvin Harrison to fifty some yards.That's no small to ask and it's something

(03:00):
that I think needs to be kindof hammered home when you go through this
matchup. So I think I thinkyou're in good shape now if you want
to broaden this, not only isthis just a big game for Notre Dame
for Kyle McCord, but it's alsoa big game for the College Football Playoff
and it is it is the biggestgame for the playoff this week. You

(03:23):
know, everything else is the PACtwelve is going to play itself out and
probably going to cannibalize itself and thatwill eventually play out Penn State. And
now you think Penn State's probably gonnawin that game, and then the ACC
you're basically playing at the facto championshipgame in September. But other than that,
you have two top ten teams higherState Notre Dame again that everybody should

(03:45):
be paying attention to because I thinkthis means the most to the national conversation,
I think Notre Dame wins this game. Like the thing with McCord is
last week was his first true weekas the permanent starter against Western Kentucky,
and yeah, of course he's gonnaput up big numbers against Western Kentucky.
Everybody Ohio state quarterback should, right. So then you look at that and

(04:08):
say, well, what does thatmean to this matchup? And on top
of that, Notre Dames had anextra week to prepare. They've had extra
week of game time. Yes itwas against Navy. They haven't played the
best of opponents, but then's stillan extra week to get into an offensive
rhythm and I value that and tosee a transfer quarterback and experienced quarterback get

(04:29):
involved early like Sam Hartman has withthat Notre Name offense compared to what McCord's
been through a little bit of strugglesthe first two weeks. Then against Dame,
permit starter all of a sudden hasa great game against a group of
five team not totally convinced yet,So I'm just gonna go with the quarterback
I trust the most here. Yeah. I talked about it in the segment
before, and it's great that youtouched on because everyone's going to talk about

(04:51):
Sam Hartman all jec est today,everyone's going to talk about com McCord,
Marvin Harrison junior, But Marvin Harrison. I buried the lead there. Marvin
Harrison Junior and how Notre Dames stoppedhim is a huge factor in anyone who
wants to back Notre Dame in thisgame. And it's because of having the
same two guys back there in thesecondary that they had in that game last

(05:12):
year in Benjamin Morrison and Cam Hart. And Benjamin Morrison's the name people might
want to learn because he's only nineteenyears old. He's a sophomore, but
he's a preseason All American. Hewas arguably maybe the best cornerback in the
country last year as a true freshman. So he's looking like he could be
a top five, top ten pickdown the line. If anyone is going
to give Marvin Harrison problems, thenit could be Notre Dame and it could

(05:35):
be Benjamin Morrison. The fear isthat Ed Buca is gonna go nuts like
he did last Year's right, andthis is a game where you know,
what's the cliche we use all thetime, You don't have to stop me
if to contain him, and inthis case, Marvin Harrison could have six
receptions to like sixty seventy yards,but that's a in terms of like the

(05:57):
big picture of what he could do. I think that's a pretty reasonable total.
Like you said, I Bucca couldgo wild as well. I think
it's about containment of Ohio State's topweapons, containment of the explosive place,
because you don't want Ohio State togain a tend of momentum. You don't
want the crowd out of it,even though it's probably going to be what
sixty forty seventy thirty in some regard, but you still want to have some

(06:23):
bit of home field advantage and that'swhat Notre Dame brings to taitment. I
think also this is kind of animportant week for the Heisman as well.
Look, we know Caleb, weknow Caleb Williams is in front, we
know Michael Pennox is probably one bymaybe number two at this point. But
this kind of solidifies what Sam Hartmancan do in the Heisman because remember they

(06:44):
play USC in October in South Bend. That's that's a big one for his
Heisman candidacy and for McCord or MarvinHarrison do they jump into the mix as
well for Ohio State wins. Sothere's a lot riding on this game.
And I do think it's it's themost important game of the weekend. H
And I think it means a lotmore to Notre Dame because they've got two

(07:04):
chances. They've got Ohio State andthey've got USC. If they win both
of those games, we're talking aboutNotre Dame in a college football playoff firing
any setbax, Ohio State can stillwin their way into the playoff against Penn
State in Michigan. So I thinkfor Notre Dame, this is it's it's
bigger than Texas going into Alabama andneeding a win, Like that's that's the

(07:26):
magnitude of this. And yeah,we talked a few weeks ago of Texas
being back and finally getting over thatstep at that big hurdle of winning a
monumental game. This feels like thatin some regard for Notre Dame as well.
Yeah, just program wise, itfeels bigger for Notre Dame. But
I mean, whoever loses this game'sgonna behind the eight ball. If you're
a Notre Dame, you have ausc game coming up against Caleb Williams,

(07:48):
who torched you last year, andyou have who knows what Cleanson is.
We're gonna find out a lot andthat's gonna be the next game we talk
about here. Cleanson. They stillhave to go to cleson Notre Dame,
and they also have to go toDuke, and we'll know, well,
we don't know what Duke is,but that that being sandwiched in between these
O Highest State and Clemson games,a trip to Duke, which maybe didn't

(08:09):
look as scary to some that inthe off season, it looks scary right
now as a little bit of atrap game even if they do win this
game. But definitely just an absolutelymassive, massive game. I'd argue biggest
game of the year so far.I know, Texas Alabama looked like the
biggest game of the year, likeTexas Alabama was a really good game in

(08:31):
the second half, but in termsof what this means to the national conversation,
it's far and away the biggest gameof the year so far. Yeah,
I totally totally agree, And honestly, you can make an argument that
this next game is the second biggestgame of the year in terms of Florida
State Clemson because I guess Florida StateLSU is right there as well, but

(08:52):
Florida State Clemson might be bigger becauseof the conference implications here and because of
really, from a narrative standpoint,the Clemson implications. If Clemson can't come
through here at home and not theFlorida States, I think Florida State's every
bit of a national championship contender,even with how they looked last week against

(09:13):
Boston College. I think they're extremely, extremely good, extremely talented, and
losing the Florida State is no,you know, nothing to be ashamed of.
But you're Clemson and you come offthat twenty eight to seven lost the
Duke. If you can't win thisgame, there's gonna be some uncomfortable conversations
had nationally about your program. Andthen Florida State. I mean, this

(09:35):
is your chance to really really ObviouslyLSU was a huge game to arrive on
the national scene, but this isyour huge chance to say we're taking over
the ACC, you know, withan asterisk for however long we'll be here
for. What do you think aboutthis game? This is their Texas is
Back moment. Yeah, for FloridaState. Now, I mean for Clemson,
those uncomfortable conversations already been had,Yeah they were. They were had

(09:56):
after the Duke game, and they'regonna circle around this game for you know,
up until the build up. Now, I think this is gonna be
a low score game. The underis the play to go here because and
this is this is also home approachingOle Miss and Alabama because Clemson in Alabama,

(10:16):
yes, their offenses are lackluster,a quarterback plays, sucks, but
the one thing they can both hangtheir hat on is defense. Clemson can
still go out there, hold ateam to twenty points and give their offense
a chance to maybe just score threetouchdowns and win the game. The same
thing with Alabama. Alabama doesn't needto score forty fifty points against all Miss.

(10:39):
All they have to do is goout and hold all Miss to,
say twenty points, twenty four aroundthat and give Jalen Miller Milrow a shot
create some turnovers in the process.So I think that's what you're looking at
in both games. I think theyprofile similar. They obviously mean different things
in the ACC in the SEC,but I think with Clemson here, Clemson

(11:00):
absolutely can hold Florida State somewhere betweenseventeen twenty points. And I think this
game is gonna be kind of aknockdown, drag out, kind of big
ten brawl because of the circumstances.But nothing we've seen from Clemson's offense suggests
they're going to come out and runthe score up. And their path to

(11:20):
victory and Dabo knows this is througha defensive stalemate, creat few turnovers,
create chaos, and just be verysteady on that side of the ball and
hopefully something clicks that you know fromthe last two weeks you've picked up on.
But yeah, I see Clemson andthe Alabama All Miss game both playing

(11:41):
very similar paths to the final result. I don't I don't know who wins.
I probably lean the established powers.I probably lean Clemson in Alabama,
I'm not taking those. I'm takingthe unders in both of those games.
I do think you're gonna see somethinglike a maybe a twenty four twenty.

(12:01):
I wouldn't be surprised if the ClemsonFlorida State games played in the high teams.
For the most part, I reallydo think it's gonna be. Uh,
Clemson has to win the game withtheir defense. Quick follow up on
Clemson and Florida State before we getto you know, the big primetime game
or you know, no pun attendedgame in the Pact twelve. But Florida

(12:22):
State and Clemson. That must meanto me that you're a little bit worried
about the showing that Florida State hadlast week against Boston College. Not at
all. Actually it has everything todo with Clemson's defense and in this big
game. Look, last week's youryour prototypical trap game. You know,
whatever whatever happened happened against Boston College. I think in terms of matchup,

(12:45):
like Clemson has proven in previous yearsthat when the offense is click isn't clicking,
their defense can get the job done. That's the one thing they can
still. That's all reliable to them. It's a reliable for Alabama as well.
So I think the only way thatthese two I want to say on
their way out, on their wayout, powers but they're they're hanging in
the balance, Clemson more than Alabama, and these teams that are hanging in

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the balance have to you know,I refer to as Dabo's last stand on
the preview podcast because that's the wayit feels like with Clemson, I wouldn't
be surprised to be the team winsthis game, but I wouldn't be surprised
if Clemsonirbama ends up losing because thewarning signs are there. But I kind
of hold true to the established powersuntil they're completely knocked down. And I

(13:31):
feel like if Clemson is making thisso called last stand to be relevant on
national stage, that their defense hasto show up. All right, let's
take a little, uh, youknow, a little twirl around the Pack
twelve. Merry go round with allthe big games here, I mean the
PAC twelve. I think you canmake an argument right now that it's the
best conference. Yeah, yeah,I really do think it is. The

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SEC is sowed down the Big Tenprobably as three of the top seven teams.
The Big Ten is top heavy,but it's always been top heavy.
Yeah, the depth of the Bigten is is atrocious. Yeah, the
Big Ten's gonna come down to howgood Iowa, Wisconsin, and Maryland are
kind of that middle of the conference, and right now they don't look like

(14:16):
they can hold a candle to themiddle of the PAC twelve. So starting
with the big game, in termsof the national focus, it's Colorado and
Oregon obviously the huge spread Oregon layand anywhere from twenty to twenty one points
here, I'm still expecting that numberto go down. I'm still expecting the
public to push Colorado to the teams. So I'm waiting. I'm gonna be
on Oregon in this game. Ithink it's a game where you know,

(14:39):
you see the problems on the trencheshere for Colorado. So I'm with Oregon
here, but I'm waiting to seeif the line adjusts. Where are you
at on this game? Star ScoringGame of the Weekend? Yeah, Like,
if you look at the what Coloradohas defensively there, there were crowd

(15:00):
as already there in their defense inthese first three games if you watched them
closely, and then to lose TravisHunter for a few weeks, and especially
for this two game stretch against Oregonin USC, Oregon is going to blitz
them in the first half. They'regonna go a bunch of deep plays.
I wouldn't be surprised if they ifthey target that side of the field early

(15:22):
and often with bone Knix, andI think this is kind of a remember
us moment for Oregon. Like we'vetalked so much about USC, We've talked
so much about Michael Pennox at WashingtonUtah or how good the remaining pack two
schools are, but we haven't reallymentioned Oregon yet, and rightfully so,
because they really haven't played anybody.And that Texas Tech game flew under the

(15:43):
radar because it played at the sametime as Texas Alabama. So I think
this is a game where bone Nickskind of reminds us like, Hey,
before last November, I was inthe Heisman Nix. He was there,
and it just it didn't come togetherfor Oregon in the month that mattered the
most. I think this is gonnabe a track meet. The only way
Colorado can win this game as ifthey score thirty forty points. Usually I'm

(16:07):
hesitant on overs better in the seventypoint range, but in this game,
it feels like Oregon in any way. You play this game out in your
head, He's scoring around forty pointsand Colorado is gonna play catch up.
I'm a little wary of some backdoorpotential with Colorado. I wouldn't be surprised
if Oregan runs the score a littlebit too. It helped you over in

(16:29):
the second half, Yeah, I'mright there with you and let's go to
your neck of the woods here andlet's talk about the Penn State Nitny Lions.
Let's talk about your Penn State,Nitny Lions. I'm all in there.
I think we talked about this inthe preseason. I think Penn State
is every bit of a national championshipcontender. I think right now I'm if

(16:49):
I was picking my playoffs, they'dstill be in my playoff So I feel
good about this game. I thinkPenn State I feel just as good.
I guess laying the number here withPenn State at home against Iowa and a
light out, as I did comparativelylast week laying the number on the road

(17:10):
against Illinois. So I'm comfortable goingback to the well. And it seems
like James Franklin is acutely aware ofthe spreads, so back in Penn State
always has a little, a littlenice added bonus to that. Where are
you add on this game? Iknow when to see a stock and to
let it go, and this iswhere I'm I'm doing with Penn State and
covering. Not only is this kindof a weird game because Iowa ken play

(17:34):
defense, but the weather is goingto play a role. Could be Windy
could have a bunch of rain dependingon how far that this this tropic store
reaches in the Happy Valley. Iwant absolutely nothing to do with this game.
I think it's gonna be very ugly. I think if any way you
look at it, maybe you takethe under. But fourteen in the hook

(17:55):
just just scares me away from thisgame. And there's so many other games
in the board that I like whereI just want. I want nothing to
do with the Iowa Penn State gamethis week. Penn State's been very profitable
in the first few weeks of theseason, and yeah, James Franklin helped
me out there week one, asdid a lot of people. And look,

(18:15):
that's got like a workmen like winagainst Illinois. Nothing too flashy,
but that's not really flashy. Isn'treally Penn State's thing. They just get
the job done. I think they'llwin this game. I don't think they're
under a threat to lose to Iowa. It just feels like this game has
like seventeen to nine written all overit because of how both defenses play and

(18:36):
because of the conditions in place.I just I want nothing to do with
it. Bad job by me,I said, we were doing the PAC
twelve thing, and then I gotdistractics. I wanted to get to Penn
State. But let's go back tothe PAC twelve. You said, well,
I guess you know, if we'retalking PAC twelve, I mean this
team's in the Big ten next year. So you see LA Classic Big ten
power u c l A twelve powerUtah. Yeah, exactly exactly. You

(19:00):
still in Utah the big game thisweekend. I've heard Cam Rising looks like
he's gonna play. I don't knowthe number, says Cam risings playing,
doesn't it? Yeah, it seemslike it. Where are you at on
this game? This is one Iwant nothing to do with. I have
no idea what UCLA is. Iwant nothing to do with it either.
I think Utah wins the game.I think they get revenge from last year.

(19:21):
Remember that it was a Friday nightgame and dtr went wild on them
in LA. But Cam Rising's firstgame back, I would lean Utah home
team. Their defense is really strongand as much as we kind of made
a big deal about Kyle McCord's forcefirst true road start, this is Dante
morris first true road start, firstbig game on the road for Ucla.

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I think the Pac twelve is gonnathrow itself out very quickly. You're gonna
have USC in Washington, probably Oregon, and then the winner of the Oregon
State Washington State game, which Ithink is the most fascinating game of the
weekend. And then you're gonna havea drop off to the loser of the
game in Pullman, probably UCLA.Utah is can probably be teetering in between
those two tiers, depending on whatthey are. With cam Rising, I

(20:07):
just it's his first game back.There may be a little bit of a
little bit of rust on him.Remember he's coming back from a significant leg
injury they suffered in the Rose Bowl, and they've been targeting this game apparently
for him to come back. Butstill it just feels like it's kind of
a stay away again. But wouldn'tbe surprised at Utah wins it. And

(20:27):
you mentioned the other game and theway you mentioned it makes me think you
also think it's a stay away therewith Oregon State and Washington. Oh no,
I'm taking the over. I amall in on the cam Ward train,
and I think Washington State proved alot and that went over Wisconsin.
I think that's kind of the stickingpoint here is they've got a point to

(20:48):
proof. It's the last here andthen the Pact twelve as we know it,
both of these teams have a pointto prove. I just in terms
of quarterback play, I like CamWard and we talked about this on the
on the preview pod. Probably themost underrated player in college football because of
what he's done, not only atWashington State, but what he did added
the carnet Ward in the FCS beforehe got to Washington State and earned that

(21:11):
transfer there and started putting up numbersthere. One of the talents at quarterback
that we don't really talk about much. And it's unfortunate this game is gonna
get buried in the in the windowas well with other games. But I
think this is fascinating. I wouldlean Washington State, but I feel a
lot more comfortable with the over.Both of these defenses aren't too great,

(21:32):
and if you look at the numbersboth of them have put up in the
first few weeks, it's pretty astounding. And fight get a little bit of
a coming out party for for DJlay that this could be a really,
really weird weekend for GJU. Thepotential final demise of Clemson and he gets
his his moment in a top twentyfive matchup. It's it's very perplexing,

(21:55):
I would assume for him. ButI think this is a game that is
gonna be fun. I think outof all the games, if you rank
them in terms of just pure funand excitement, this is number one out
of the six rank matchups. Yeah, no, I totally agree there.
And Washington State has been a teamI've been on since the off season,

(22:15):
and I've mentioned each week on myshow. Why is no one talking about
Washington State when we talk about thePack swelve? Why is no one talking?
No, you're right, You're right. But people should watch them because
they're a lot of fun. Andyou know, obviously the Wisconsin win was
huge. I was on them forthat. But another win that they had
this year, they absolutely pummeled ColoradoState in a game they were single digit

(22:36):
favorites. They won by twenty six. That Colorado State team went on.
Obviously I don't think they're good,but they went on and gave Colorado a
game. And now everyone, whenyou walked, you walked out a little
bit of a dangerous path when youdo that, though, because of course
it's like it's yeah, it's allrelative, right, because yeah, they
beat Colorado State pretty bad, Butif you applied like the rivalry aspect of

(23:00):
that Colorado game, it's it's avery impressive performance. But I would I
would hang my hat more on theWisconsin game and whatever they if they win
this weekend in terms of what theirrelevancy should be in the PAC twelve.
And I mean, look it,it's so hard to the Pac twelve.
I'm still under the assumption that they'regoing to cannibalize themselves and there's not going

(23:22):
to be a Pack twelve playoff teambecause I think USC can be vulnerable if
they get into a lower scoring game. So I think that to me,
I want the Pack twelve to havea playoff team. I don't think they
will. I mean, even USCcan you know, sweep to Pac twelve
and loose the noted game, andthen that creates a really interesting conversation as

(23:42):
well. I think they I thinkin that scenario they get in. Yeah,
you're probably right. You're probably right. The only the only reason I
mentioned the Colorado State thing is becausethey gave Colorado game and the Washington Say
game was in Colorado State whereas theColorado game was in Colorados, so there
is that factor. But yeah,obviously that game does get dangerous. I

(24:03):
just meant when we talk about WashingtonState compared to Colorado, obviously Colorado is
going to get more attention, andthey should because of the Dion factor and
should wear and everything like that.Washington State has been one of the most
not irrelevant, but one of themost least paid attention to Power five schools.
There's a reason why they got leftout. There's a reason why we're

(24:25):
good Steak got left up. Weall we all know that. But they're
always They're always sneaky fun I thinkthey I think they could, you know,
really go on a run here andwin nine plus games in the PAC
twelve. But let's talk about yourbest bet on the board here, and
your best bet is in a bizarregame. I mean, it's in an
ugly game. It's probably gonna bethe worst game of the weekend, which

(24:48):
is publicly on brand for what Iusually pick here. Yeah, it's definitely
in the conversation for ugliest games ofthe weekend. But I meaned this way
too, And I remember I lookedat last I looked at this week's schedule,
and I was like, Oh,I'm sure I'll hammer Oklahoma State there
because I love betting against the biggestfraud in sports, Matt Campbell, and
I love betting against Iowa State.But then Oklahoma State laid such an egg

(25:12):
last week that it scares me.Joe Tancy's here to tell me that that's
exactly when you back Mike Dundee,and I know that's the truth, but
I'm still afraid. Talk me into backing the Oklahoma State councul Mike Dundee
is one of the most predictable coachesin college football, and he's been around
long enough that you know exactly whathe's gonna do. Look, I bet

(25:33):
South Alabama last week that's the gameOklahoma State loses. It is, and
they did. They proved it right. But they always somehow find a way,
even when they're at their lowest oflows, to come back and win
on the road in the Big Twelve. They never go away there. They're
a pesky younger brother, is whatOklahoma State is. And sometimes they're really

(25:55):
good and then they fall flat intheir face, like they've proven in previous
years. I was State's no good. Oklahoma State. At least they can
hang their head on the defense.And they don't need to score thirty points
in this game to win it,score like seventeen. That's the type of
game that Might Gundy really succeeds in. Like you said that, the Matt
Campbell thing has gone south very veryquickly in aimes. And I mean,

(26:18):
look, if you know anything aboutcollege football, you've you've seen these trends
happen before. Mike Gundy has beenthe game long enough at that one school.
You know exactly where this is going. Oklahoma State's winning this game.
They might win about two touchdowns justbecause I alway states that bad. But
yeah, this is a prototypical kindof Mike Gundy's system play. If you

(26:40):
want to call it that, Ilike it. I'm gonna end up betting
it now for sure. Let's andso I'm on two Square favorites this week.
There's two Square favorites. I knowthey're gonna be public plays. I
understand why. I don't care.I'm holding my nose. I'm walking into
the rat trap. And I loveMaryland. I got it at seven and

(27:02):
I love North Carolina. I gotthat at seven. Which one? Which
one? Are you more afraid ofwhich one is more of a trap in
your opinion? Neither probably, Okay, I mean, what is Michigan State
shown that they're gonna rally around eachother and play well. They might,

(27:26):
they might win a big ten gameor two. I think you'd be more
concerned about Maryland just because of consistency'ssake. I think you see with North
Carolina it's a very clear advantage inthe quarterback matchup from Drake made it to
Djerkovic. Pitt really struggled against WestVirginia last week, which kind of surprised
me a little bit. They're gonnatry and hang their hat in the defense.

(27:48):
But if North Carolina breaks free fora few big plays, this game
could get ugly really quick. Mightbe whether affected depending on how how far
this tropical storm reaches out. ButI just think with Carolina, if they
could put up twenty four, maybethirty points, Uh, this game isn't
even close. That's just how putridPitt's offense looks right now. Yeah,

(28:10):
That's exactly why I'm on them.And then a couple of SEC games when
I have a pick on, whenI have a lean on, I'm on
Texas A and m minus seven anda half against Auburn. I know them,
you know that's a whole I'm nota Jimbo guy, not a Texas
A and M guy. I havebeen impressed by Wegman, So I think
this is more of a fade onAuburn. I don't think they're ready yet.
And Hugh Freeze is first year.And then this is another big time

(28:33):
hold your nose play and I don'thave stones to take it. I don't
think. But Arkansas gives LSU problemsin the Sam Pittman era. I lean
Arkansas plus eighteen here against LA.It's a big number. I know I
shouldn't don't at the game big Okay, all right, do you have a

(28:55):
play on the other one? Oh? No, absolutely not. The SEC
has got a bunch of stinkers thisweek. It's not it's not a good
slate, not a good conference.But yeah, Look, here's the thing
with trends. Trends can mean something, they can mean nothing. Uh,
And I think we fall back onthem maybe a little too much. How

(29:17):
I just did it with Mike Gundy. But it's that's not really a numbers
trend. That's more of just likehe always does this with LSU. It's
very clear that they're a much betterteam than Arkansas. It's a Nike game
in Baton Rouge. Remember that thisisn't like a noon kickoff. I think
I think it's Valerie and Herbie onthis one. Uh yeah, just because

(29:37):
everybody else has the big games.It feels like LSU just rolls them that
the Sam Pittman thing is is doneand over with has been done and over
with losing the b by U,who actually I actually like again this week
as a dog, I'm going againstyou there. Kansas is one of my
squads this year. I love theycould be one of your squads. But
they're not ten points better than byU. That's fair. It's a small

(30:00):
play for me. I got itat eight and a half early in the
week before. There's still we'll see, we'll see. I think they will
cover the spread, but I've definitelysee. I think it's a perfect letdown
spot for by U after a bigwin against Arkansas. I could be wrong,
obviously, it is a conference gamefor them, but I do like
Kansas there. But I had onemore I wanted to Oh, okay,

(30:22):
this is one that I know speakingof trends, and we Obviously you pick
and choose when you want to usethem. But this is the last game.
I'll ask you about a trend thatI know we both love is Justin
Wilcox at California as an underdog.I don't have the stones to take I
use that expression too many times here, but I don't have the guts to

(30:45):
take him this week, pure oneagainst Washington. Yeah, am I should
I be backing him there? Now? Trends, trends matter until they don't.
That doesn't matter there. I meanthat just that just smells the game.
I don't want to spend my timewatching cal in Washington. That that's
gonna be brutal. I will say, if you're looking for one play in

(31:10):
a game that it's totally off theradar for a lot of people. Is
Illinois fifteen and a half against FauFAU. They're starting quarterback Casey Thompson is
out for the season. Believe DanielRichardson mac Legend is his backup? Now?
Which is that that breaks my brain? That you know, well,
whatever Illinois defense is gonna eat upFAU and I feel like this is the

(31:33):
week. Look at what Illinois startedwith, sneaky, tough game, against
a MAC team in Toledo, hadto go on the road at Kansas,
and then played Penn State at home. It's like probably one of the tougher
three game opening streaks you'll see incollege football. It doesn't seem like that
on the surface, but in termsof where the other Big Ten teams are,

(31:55):
it's it's pretty tough. I thinkIllinois bounces back this week takes out
a lot of frustration and on FAU, a team that's got to find itself
offensively now that Casey Thompson's out.I feel like this might be a tone
setting game for Illinois. I'm notsaying they'll they'll win the West, but
I wouldn't be surprised. Come likeNovember first, Bert's got them just hanging
around right underneath Iowa and Wisconsin.They were like, Hey, Illinois,

(32:19):
not too bad. Not saying they'regood, but I think they'll figure things
out. And I think this isa big weekend for them from like an
internal perspective, to just blow thedoors off the FAU and kind of reset
going into the deeper parts of theirBig Ten schedule. Yeah, seven and
five might win the West, soyou it might. It might not be
that crazy ever thing to say,but that's Joe Tansy. It's always great

(32:40):
to have Joe Tanzy and you canfollow them on Twitter at Jay Tansy ninety.
Check out the college Football Preview podevery week and check out all of
this stuff over there. And absolutelya ton you have the Unions doing a
little a little quick blurb at theend, I will I will take my
pontoon down the Chester tonight with itwith it being so rainy, We're on
the game forty three of the seasonagainst LAFC tonight. It's it's it's a

(33:06):
long season. You think college footballand college basketball and no friends, we
gotta get you into soccer and realizehow long that is because it's it's a
grind. But yeah, they're theyjust clinched the playoffs spot and uh hoping
for the two season the East andno MESSI and no MESSI is a good
thing in the playoffs, even Iknow that. So and no one covers

(33:29):
the Union better than Joe Tansy,and no one covers the Union better than
the Gambler. A little sneak thisthere. So that's my parting shot.
Everyone go check out Joe Tansy.Thanks for coming on Joe, Thank you,