August 12, 2023 • 29 mins
The Gambler's Fantasy Football Insider, Roy Burton, joins MHJ and Sean Barnard to talk the latest rankings in Fantasy Football, which players to target in your draft in which rounds, and more!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
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(00:14):
Welcome back to the Tough Cover RadioShow. Excited to bring this guest on
first time. We're having this gueston talking some fantasy football, and I'm
happy that he is here at theGambler. Now. You can follow on
Twitter at the bs line Roy Burtonover there. You can check out at
(00:35):
GT Decision, Game Time Decision,his fantasy up, his fantasy Twitter account
there. Roy, thanks so muchfor coming on to talk some fantasy football.
Mark and Sewn, thank you forhaving me. I appreciate it,
of course, of course. Andwe're gonna have Sewn throwing some questions too
over there. I know Shan's notas locked in, I think as we
are on fantasy, but he gettingthere. He was sending to me some
(00:57):
takes. I'm I'm I'm pumped tohere what he throws out at you.
But we were talking off air onsome guys that you're higher on, guys
you're lower on than consensus, andwe're just gonna run through some of them,
run through some some strategy questions andwhat people should be doing in their
drafts out there. But let's actuallystart out with that in terms of the
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first round. I think an oldadage and fantasy football is that you can't
win your draft in the first round, but you can lose your draft in
the first round. Is there anythingyou're seeing people do in the first round,
whether it be at the top ofthe draft, in the middle,
in the back end, that youkind of cringe at and you go,
I don't know that that might bea potential kind of league loser in the
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first round there. And I thinkpeople usually well, at least from what
I've seen, at least in termsof the harishtraft position. I think people
have, you know, are doingpretty well in the first round. I
think you know, most importantly,the most important thing that you want to
do if you're drafting in the firstround again, make sure that you know
what your league is, your leaguerules are, especially if you're drafting in
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a either a PPR league or halfPPR league. If you're drafting, you
know, in the first round andyou're drafting in one of those types of
leagues, make sure you get somebodywho's going to get some targets, like
not just you know, not justthe running back who only gets rushing there.
It's like, if you're going todraft a running back, get a
guy like a Christian McCaffrey or analso neckler who's going to catch some passes,
or Eve gonna be Geen Robinson who'sgoing to catch some passes in in
Atlanta. Or draft yourself a bigtime wide receiver, get yourself a Justin
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Jefferson, get yourself a Tyree killerJamar Chiefs, or you know even at
Travis Kelsey's going to get a lotof targets. So I think people,
you know, like if as longas you pay enough attention to your league
and league rules in your league scoring, then you know, your first round
pick should be pretty much a slamdunk because again, other than injuries,
you know, you should, youknow, be able to find a super
talented guy who's going to put upa number pot a number of points in
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your league. And from what I'veseen this year, I think most people
are kind of abiding by that strategy. So does that mean in terms of
the targets, if we're only draftingguys in the first round with arcus,
does that mean we're a little skepticalon guys like a Nick Chubb, guys
like a Derrick Henry who those guyspretty much get all their points out of
the backfield. I think Henry didhave a little bit higher and catches last
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year. In Chubb has had somesuccess in the past, but mainly they're
not guys like a McCaffrey or anEckler, potentially Bijan or some of these
other guys. Are those guys you'rekind of shying away from in the first
round, Yeah for me. Forme, those guys are right outside of
the first round for me, Yeah, like they're probably they're they're definitely early
second round picks. If you're ina AT ten or twelve team league,
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Like for me, then Nick Chubis probably my thirteenth guy overall, and
Derrick Henrys like my fifteenth guy overall. And you're right, Derrick Henry you
know, had a decent season forhim in terms of receptions. He has
thirty three catches last year. Butnow you have you know, you have
you know, Treylon Burkes and DeAndreHopkins. There you have a Chicka Tankuo
who's kind of you know, emergingas a tight end. So I don't
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know if Derrick Henry is gonna getthose type of receptions in twenty twenty three.
So yeah, I don't think he'syou know, necessarily can be your
RB one if you draft a widereceiver in the first round. But I
necessarily wouldn't pick a Derrick Henry inthe first round, as you said,
because again, he just doesn't getthat much volume in terms of in terms
of receptions. And then sticking withthe first round, and you mentioned,
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you know, you want to geta guy with the targets, and you
ran through the running backs, youran through the steaves, and he said,
oh, and you know, evenTravis Kelsey obviously is going to get
a lot of those. My bigfantasy take this year is that I think
you could make a legitimate argument forTravis Kelsey is the number one overall pick.
He's not my rank there. Ihave justin Jefferson rank number one overall.
If I had the first pick,I would take Jefferson. I have
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Kelsey two. And I think hehas an argument due to how good he
is at his position and how muchbetter he is than the number two tight
end, and how bad kind ofeven if you look at like the number
eight tight end, number nine tightend last year, they were averaging like
eight to ten fantasy points per game, and Kelsey's doubled that, like and
that's not that's like a middling guyat the position. It's not even like
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you have a terrible situation. Soyeah, I just think that the value
he brings a tight end is worthtaking above any running backs in the draft,
and is worth taking above a Jamar, above a Cooper Cup, above
a Tyreek Hill. What do youthink about that? I don't have too
many arguments with what you just saidthere. I wouldn't take him one.
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But if you if you told methat that he's your second best pass catcher
behind Justin Jefferson, I wouldn't.I wouldn't talk you down off that ledge
too much. I mean, Tyree, Travis Kelsey is just super consistent.
And when it comes to fantasy there'sthere's two things that I like. I
like guys who did a lot oftargets, and I like guys who are
super consistent. And Travis Kelsey lastyear he had at least four catches in
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every game. Last season, hehad twelve games with thirteen or more Fantasy
points. Like the man like,every time you put him in the lineup,
he's going to get you double digitfantasy points. And he has,
you know, the capability of havingthose big games. You know where he
has you know the twenty five andthirty Fantasy points, and you're right,
Like the difference between him and youknow tight End two on the board probably
for most people in Mark Andrews,it's pretty significant. And the difference between
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him and you know tight End youknow, nine or ten on the board
probably like a David and Joke whoor something, it's huge. I mean
it's it's a huge gap between thosetwo guys. So yeah, Travis Kelson
to me, is is absolutely He'sa top ten pick in all you know,
in all fantasy formats. And I'mnot as bullish on him as you
are. But if you if youwant to make a case where he's a
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top five pick in your fantasy league, again, I'm not gonna I'm not
gonna argue argue down from that forsure. And then yeah, yeah,
go ahead. And to jump inon kind of the number one pick conversation,
I was texting with Mark before this, but I've seen some momentum of
Austin Ekeler being ranked a little bitahead of Christian McCaffrey on some sites and
things like that. I personally thinkthat's crazy and I think McCaffrey should be
the number one running back, andI also side with Mark that I would
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rank Justin Jefferson ahead of both ofthem. So how do you feel about
that? And if you're on theclock with the number one pick, who
are you taking? Right? Soyeah, I'll give you my top three.
My top three as of right now, I don't think this will change.
My top three is Justin jeff Person, Christian McCaffrey, and Alston Eckler
in that aver. So I thinkwe're probably on the same I think we're
up robbing the same wavelength when itcomes to that. I don't think the
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Eckler I don't think the Ekla thingis super crazy. Eckler over CMC is
super crazy because Alston Eckler, again, he's a target monster, had one
hundred and twenty seven targets last year, one hundred and seven catches. But
Christian McCaffrey, he was just sogood when he came over to San fran
last year and halfway through the seasonhe had three twenty five plus point games
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last year after he joined the nineErs. You know, he had a
total of eighty five perceptions last year. He's just a super consistent guy and
he's a better runner than Alston Eckler. He's gonna probably get you Neither one
of those guys as a necessarily athousand yard back rushing, but I think
he's a he's a better runner.He's gonna get you more consistent rushing yards
than than Austin Eckler. So Ihad him. I'll say it's a little
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bit more than a hair over AltonEckler. But again, after Justin Jefferson,
it's just about a coin flip betweenMcCaffrey Neckler because both of those guys
are gonna put up to the numbersjust about every week. And you mentioned
a couple names that you're really highon. You mentioned like two names that
I totally agree with in terms ofone guy you're high on, I'm totally
in with you, one guy you'relow on, I'm totally in with you,
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and then one guy you're gonna haveto I'm right in the middle on.
And then one guy I'm in onthat you're out on. So it's
a fun We got all the sidesof things. But let's talk about one
that we agree on. Brandon Cooks. I think Brandon Cooks is a steel
in fantasy draft where he is going. I don't think people realize, and
I don't think people have ever realizedhow good Brandon Cooks has been throughout his
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career. He's been a little bitof a journeyman. He's been on so
many teams, he's had so manydifferent quarterbacks, but he's been remarkably consistent.
I mean, even last year,one of the worst years of his
career, fifty seven catches for sevenhundred yards and three touchdowns with long neck
Davis Mills getting him the ball there. The year before with Davis Mills he
had ninety catches for a thousand yardsand six touchdowns. And then obviously before
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that with Watson, he was reallygood. With Goff, he had really
good years. Brady had a reallygood year with Breezy, had really good
years. And now he's back withI mean, Sean Bernard might throw something
at me for saying this, buthe's back with a good quarterback in Dak
Prescott, so I think, andDak, whatever you want to say about
him, he airs the ball outand he throws passing touchdowns. I mean
two years ago he had you know, I have four thousand something yards thirty
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seven touchdowns. Let's steer the ship. You lose Dalton Schultz, and you
add Brandon Cooks. Tell me whyyou're so high on Brandon Cooks, because
I'm totally in agreement with you.Now you you just laid out the taste
for Brandon Cooks right there, likeyou know, there's no more Dalton Schultz.
You know you have a quarterback inDak Prescott who's going to throw for
four thousand yards. You got theghost of Michael Gallup. He's not going
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to really be taking too many targetsaway from from from Cooks and from Ceedee
Land. I like Brandy Cooks.I really like Brandon Cooks. Like I
almost didn't want to come on theshow and talk about Brandon Cooks because I
think three of us are probably goingto be in a fantasy lead together.
I didn't want to. I didn'twant to profess my love for Brandon Cooks
over the airways. But you knowyou asked the questions, so I will
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answer no. Brandon Cooks to meis probably wild. I don't say wildly,
but he's probably being drafted a coupleof rounds too low in most fantasy
leagues before he's good. I thinkhe's probably you know, on taste for
you know, i'd say, likemaybe like a fifty fifty five catch users
for like eight hundred and fifty yards, maybe five touchdowns. I think you
could be a really good wide receiverthree for most fantasy lineups. And he's
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a guy you can probably start everyweek, you know, given that Bella's
offense. I know, I know, it's Philadelphia and we're supposed to hate
DA, supposed to hate the Cowboys, and we do. But when it
comes to fantasy, you have todraft guys who are productive. And I
really think Brandon Cooks is in agood spot to be productive this year and
a guy that I kind of havebegrudgingly talked myself into throughout the off season.
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And I want to preface this,I'm not saying that I think this
guy should be your certified starting quarterbackfor fantasy football. But Russell Wilson is
probably a stock at an all timelow. Before the show I saw ranking
him as the seventeenth quarterback. Ifeel like that swings too low, and
I'm buying that stock from both theyfantasy and real quarterback perspective. I like
Jay g d a whole lot.I like Courtland Sutton a lot. How
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do you feel about Russell Wilson.I'm also buying into how bad Nathaniel Hackett
was last year and how much thatplayed into things. So what's your outlook
for Russell Wilson and really the Broncosoffense as a whole. So I personally
have Russell Wilson is my sixteenth bestfantasy quarterback. I think that's about I
think that ranking is about right becauseyou know, once you kind of go
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through the list of guys who youknow are almost certain to have a better
year than Russell Wilson, I thinkyou gets about ten, you know ten
guys, and they're definitive guys,so you know, like so basically you're
at the point where is he goingto be better than Daniel Jones, Aaron
Rodgers, you know, Jared Goff, you know Geno Smith, like those
guys, and I don't think so. Again, I'm a little bit high
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on Jerry Julie as well. Ijust have a lot of questions about the
rest of the offense, and Ihave a lot of questions about, you
know, the health of the JavonteWilliams and the health of well somebody.
If he run's fine, but again, if he has to be the number
one running back. Can you carrythe load in Denver? I just there's
a lot going on in that Denveroffens that I need to see something on
the field before I kind of jumpback on the Russell Wilson bandwagon, because
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he was he was pretty awful lastyear from from a fantasy perspective. He
had nine games last year we hadleft in fifteen fantasy points. So he
really wasn't a good fantasy quarterback.So I can't under any circumstances say that,
you know, he should be yourfantasy quarterback one, because I think
you can get a comparable guy aroundthat same position. Again, you can
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probably get you know, if peopleare still buying low on Gino Smith,
and Gino Smith was the fifth bestfantasy quarterback last year, So if I
can, you know, if Ican get Gino Smith and you know around
you know, ten or eleven,you know, at the same time,
I would get Russell Wilson, andI'd definitely take Gino Smith in that spot.
Imagine saying that a year ago.By the way, it's crazy,
I'm right there with you. Ismy QB ten, So I'm all over
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Gino. I have Russett QB fourteen. I think so I'm a little bit
higher than you, but not crazy, not crazy high, and honestly,
that tier kind of it runs togethera little bit. You mentioned you mentioned
my ride or Die guy this year, my number one guy in fantasy this
year, and again, like youmentioned, you didn't want to say something
on air. I have my biggestdraft that I've been in for fifteen years
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tomorrow, and I'm sure my buddieswho never listened to my radio show are
all tuned in today. So I'malmost afraid to say certain things, but
I will six I said it onTwitter. Jerry Judy's been the guy all
off season, and it's annoying becausenow he caught that touchdown last night and
he's rising already. There's been allthese reports, there was a couple of
injuries, so I feel like he'sstarting to be drafted closer to where I
think he should be. I havehim as a top thirteen receiver this year.
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I think he's a guy who youcan justify taking at the end of
the third round into the fourth round. I am in love with what I
think he can do. This year, he was wide receiver twenty two on
one of the worst offenses in modernhistory, with a quarterback play that was
in the toilet. He has sixtyseven catches, nine h seventy two yards,
six touchdowns. I just don't Ithink that's the floor. Like,
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if we're saying that his floor iswide receiver twenty two, how is he
going to be worse than he waslast year? Am I crazy? On
Judy? Wide receiver third? That'spretty rich for Jerry Judy. Yeah,
I hope you take him at thathigh in our league. I put it
like that. I'm not that bigof a fan on Jerry Judy, Like,
like you know, I have himprobably around like the early twenties.
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So of my wide receiver rankings,I just still have a lot. Like
I said before, I have alot of questions about that that Denver Offington,
and that's not even the Denver offhas necessarily because again I think Jerry
Jude's talented. I think there's justa lot of a lot of talented receivers
in good spots this year. Likeagain, guys who are in that same
range. You know that Terry mclauren. Again, I think he's gonna get
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the lion share of the catches inWashington. I think Cala Ridley's gonna be
fantastic. I think he's never anexcellent year in Jacksonville, d J.
Moore. In Chicago, he hada career high seven touchdowns last year.
I think the Chicago offense has beengoing to be a little bit better at
Christian Watson's gonna get a bunch ofwork in Green Bay. So it's not
really necessarily knock on Jerry Judy thatI have him so low. I just
think there's a whole bunch of widereceivers in that i'd say fifteen to twenty
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five range and on the most people'sboards that I think are just going to
have a really good season, evenTyler Lockett and Seattle. Again with Gino
Smith, you have Tyler Lockett,you have DK Metcalf and Jackson Smith Najiba,
you have a really talented offense.And I think all those guys are
gonna get some work. So Ijust think there's a lot of really good
receivers who are going to get targets, and I think Jerry Judy among that
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group is probably I don't see thead man out, but you might get
the least I'm on a work outof those guys. I don't know if
there's legs to this. Roy.This might be something we can discuss,
but I think we're gonna eventually bedoing a lot a little bit of a
live draft on YouTube where it's likea lot of the guys at the Gambler
get together and we do I don'tknow if that's gonna be live or if
we do a recap after the fact, but we're definitely gonna want to have
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you on. I don't know ifthis is a bet we should make now
or a bet we should make later, A little friendly on air wager.
I'm really low on DJ Moore andTyler Lockett comparatively to Judy, so I
would love to do a Judy Judyverse DJ Moore or Judy verse Lockett.
I would love to do something likethat, Judy Judy Lockett. Let's do
a Judy Lockett side wager. Wheneverthis goes down, I will do a
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Judy Lockett tide wager. Put meon, put me on board, write
it down, put it on theboard. I like that. I like
that a lot like I'm in.I'm in. That's as past and present
right there that Yeah, you're right, you're right, and I'll throw another
stat at you over the last fiveweeks. Jerry Judy average twenty point one
four Fantasy points per game at theend of Hackett and then post Hackett as
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opposed to eleven point four in hisfirst nine games. I'm also just like
Judy's been a guy I've loved sincehe came out in the draft as a
draft nerd that I am he Ithink, and you look at the underlying
metrics, like his separation numbers areabsurd. I think he's the type of
guy. I think we're finally goingto see some of those elite skills kind
of kind of show out. Andanother guy who I think has elite skills
I meant to ask when we startedtalking about Dallas. But going back a
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little bit, I'm sorry Eagles fansout there to talk more about Dallas.
But another one of my guys thisyear who I find myself drafting pretty much
no matter where I'm drafting in thesecond round if he's available, is Tony
Pollard. Tony Pollard is a guywho I've really been targeting. He's going
around the top five running backs rightoutside of it. Maybe for me,
I think he should be squarely inthat top five running back conversation. Last
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year, the Cowboys had the numbereight fantasy running back and the number twenty
two fantasy running back despite both missingtwo games apiece. The one guy's gone
and the one guy's there. Whatdo you and not to mention Mike McCarthy
and everything he's said about wanting torun the ball more, what do you
think about Tony Pollard this year?And where should he be going in drafts?
All right, So now I amofficially regretting coming on this program today
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because again I have to give awaysome of the secret sauce when when it
comes to the fantasy thing. BecauseTony Pollard's my guy, He's my RB
six on my list. Love TonyPollard. I think he's I think he's
really good. He was RB FantasyRB five the second half of last season.
He has you know, five pointone yards per carry you first career
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and again like he's like you said, he's the clear number one running back
in Dallas, and again Dallas isgoing to run the ball. Well you
know, whether Zack Martin's there ornot. I really like Tony Pollard.
I have I have a Google dotof basically it's called guys. I like
either like you guys who I targetand guys who I'm looking forward to to
to drafting. Tony Poller's on thatlist and Brandon Cooks is on LST.
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I really like those guys. Andagain, I know we're predisposed to hate
Dallas and all things Dallas football inthis town, but those guys are there
definitely targets for me in fantasy thisyear. For sure. You want to
hear something crazy, you said RBsix, I have Tony Pollard RB three.
Wow. RB three, that's howhigh I am I put. I'm
putting my money where my mouth iswith some of my guys this year.
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And I all right, you couldconvince people I don't hate it. I
don't hate it I have. Ihave Pollard, Bijan, and sa Quon
projected within ten points of each other. So I have all three of those
guys, my RB three, fourand five. I have them basically even
I'd rather bet on the Dallas offensethan the New York or the Atlanta offense,
to be quite honest. And thatleads us. That leads us into
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a conversation about someone you mentioned.You said Affair that you're not a big
Desmond Ritter guy. I'm right herewith you. I am not. I
don't think he's an NFL starting quarterbackin any capacity, But does that poison
the well for some of the guyson the Falcons roster? Obviously such incredible
skill position talent on the Falcons withJon at running back, with Kyle Pitts
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my guy who has just never livedup to my lofty expectations at tight end,
and Drake London at wide receiver.Is it a case by case basis?
Are you kind of higher or loweron any of those three guys?
That's Ritter kind of ruin those three. So that's a very good point.
And I kind of like in thisI use a basketball analogy since we have
shown in the building, so Ikind of like it. It's like a
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basketball basketball analogy were I think theaverage you know, points per game for
an NB eighteen is like one hundredand ten or something like tone thereabouts,
right, So the way I figuredit is like, you know, your
stars are gonna get you, likeyou know, like let's say using the
sixers, let's say last year,like you know, and beat in the
hard and we'll get you fifty five. Right, somebody else has to get
those other fifty five. So Ithink, like in Atlanta, like they're
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probably gonna throw for it might notbe a lot, you know, but
doesn't really probably gonna have like threethousand yards thirty two hundred yards. Again,
not a great season for seventeen games, but it is what it is.
Somebody has to get these yards,right, Like, like Drake London
is not gonna have two thousand yards, So Drake London's gonna get his thousands.
But then, you know, macHollins is their number was there wide
receiver number two right now? Heain't getting those yards. So like I
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think the Gen Robinson and I thinkKyle Pitts are still going to eat.
They might not you know, eatyou know, bunch to the level of
well the odd thousand the yards,but I think they'll both have a pretty
decent season, not you know,not you know, eye popping numbers probably
go out to eat the ball,I'll say, receiving wise out of the
Gen Robinson. But I think there'sjust just enough numbers in the fact that
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Ilan is going to have to throwthe ball enough throw the ball a lot
that those guys are going to havedecent years. So I'm not overly concerned.
Yes, I would much rather thanhave a more proven quarterback throwing to
them, But I think Robinson andPitts and in London are talented enough where
like, again, somebody has toget these three thousand yards Atlanta's gonna have
this year, So I think Ithink the three of them are gonna going
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to benefit from that more than anyoneelse. And one of the interesting conversations
throughout this whole offseason has been aboutrunning backs and they're paved, they're worth
all that. We're seeing more andmore of the running back by committee,
and honestly, like there's much moreof the plug and play running back than
we've ever seen before. From afantasy perspective, do you value the guys
that you do know are going toget those touches a little more because of
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that? Or what's your outlook?Because when you look beyond the kind of
the top dogs with the running backposition, it is still pretty plug and
play. I mean, even lookat the Eagles that we have no real
feel for who's going to get atouch the most touches on a week to
week basis. So from a fantasyperspective, how do you kind of weigh
that and where do you kind ofshift that in your ranking system. Yeah,
that's that's another good question. Yeah, Like you like you said,
(22:02):
like there's maybe like ten guys inthe league that you know we're gonna get,
you know, like maybe you know, fifty five sixty percent of the
carriers for their teams, and ideally, you know, I would like to
get one of those guys. Butagain, depending on how the draft falls
and checks out and things like that, that's not necessarily the case. So
when it comes you know, youknow, when it comes to that,
I think it's you know, Ithink you kind of just do the best
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you can as far as you know, like looking at depth, Charles looking
at injury history, he's looking atyou know, like the preseason work and
trying to you know, try tofigure out who's going to get most of
the carriers for their team like theycould you know, looks like a team
like Chicago, like Kali Herbert is, you know, getting he's you know,
RB one on your depth chart.Now you know he's as right now
he's ahead of Dante Foreman. SoI would probably take Herbert because again he's
(22:48):
been in the Chicago system, youknow, for a couple of years.
You know, he's probably going toenter the season and you know at RB
one and yeah, he might sharethe carries, but I think he's probably
going to get more carries than most. I'll look at a guy like,
let's say it, could you know, James Cook and Buffalo. Again,
Buffalo is not you know, theydon't they don't run the ball a lot.
But I think you'll probably wind upgetting more carries in a Damian Harris,
you know, because again because ofhis history. So it's a little
(23:11):
it's a little tough because you know, everybody wants a Tony Pollard or a
Nick Chubb or you know those guyswho are going to get eighteen twenty twenty
two carries, but they're not alwaysout there. There's not enough out there
for every team. So you gotto figure out, all right, you
know, like who's gonna get themost carries on you know in Detroit,
is gonna be Jamir gizz Is,It's gonna be you know, uh,
David Montgomery. You know who's gonnayou know, what's gonna happen in New
(23:33):
Orleans when Alvin Kamara comes back,because Alvin Camara is gonna be the league
guy or it's still gonna be JamalWilliams or what so's it really is tough,
Like I think, you know,I think my my personal strategy is
to try to get one of thosedefinite guys you know, you know in
the first couple of rounds and thenyou know, again just do your do
your best, you know, yourdue diligence to find guys who are going
to get you know, the mostcarries on the team going forward, and
(23:53):
then you're going to miss on some. But if you hit on the couple
that you can start every week,then I think that's all you can do.
And along those lines, you havetwo running backs here, one that
you're out on and one that you'rein on. The guy that you're in
on, Alexander Madison, I'm probablylike exactly consensus, Like I probably have
him around twenty one or twenty twoamong running backs, which is probably right
around the industry consensus. So talkto me why and he I think does
(24:18):
fit what you just talked about,Like there's probably not a lot of competition
for touches with Madison in Minnesota,so that is a big factor. But
another guy, Rashad White, butyou're out on I kind of feel the
same way about. And I knowTampa's offense is going to struggle, but
I think there's just not going tobe a lot of competition for him in
terms of catches and touches. Sowhy are you in Madison and out on
(24:41):
White? Well, I'll answer theWhite question first. I just think Tampa
Bay stinks and I think that TampaBay and bad teams are going to throw
the ball. And if you throwthe ball, that means less touches for
Rashad White. So you know there'sTampa Bay's down fourteen and nothing in the
first quarter, and again it's gonnabe a lot of a lot of time,
you know, forty yard you know, forty forty attempt games for Kyle
(25:04):
Traska, Baker Mayfield, who everstarts down there. And I just don't
think. I just don't think Wisingto get a lot of work this year.
I think I'm more optimistic about Minnesotathan most people. I don't think
the name is that bad. Iknow what they want, like thirteen games
last I don't think they think they'rethat good. But I think the the
over under and draft kings last timeI check, was even half wins from
Minnesota in that division, and Ithink that's a bit low. I mean,
(25:26):
I think Kirk Cousins is fine.I liked the wide receiver room,
you know, obviously Justin Jefferson andJordan Addison. I liked the two of
them a lot. And when Madison'shad times when he's gotten the carries in
the past, when he's had this, I think he's only had like five
starts in the NFL. But whenhe's gotten the opportunity to get touches at
a starter level, he's produced prettywell. Again, like he's he's produced
(25:48):
not quite at Dolin Cook levels,but he has been a solid starting running
back in those limited opportunities. SoI think I think Madison's fine. I
think he's probably I think he canknock on the door of a thousand you
know, talk you gifts there,but I think you can put up a
nine hundred yards season, maybe getanother thirty catches out of the backfield,
you know, nothing, nothing crazy. But again I think he's better than
(26:08):
him. I don't know where he'sbeing drafted, me like a seventh eighth
round DRAFTI now, I think it'sa little bit higher than that for sure.
And then one last question on yourway out here, there's a guy
who for a long time I justhaven't understood, Like, I don't understand
why we try to make this happen. Why are we trying to make cam
Akers happen every year? Like Ithink the guys just confirmed bad. Like
(26:29):
I don't understand it. I neverhave understood it. I have him like
outside of my top thirty five andrunning backs, like there's just no scenario
I draft him. I'm also superby the way I not to brush over.
Me and Sean both like that Minnesotaover eight and a half. We
both have them winning the division whereI don't. I don't really. I
think Jefferson gives you such a highfloor as an offense it's just absurd.
(26:51):
And then adding Addison's awesome. Butthe Rams, I think a lot of
people are expecting the Rams just toturn around and they're just gonna be better.
That roster stinks. I think they'reroster. Their stinks. I think
their offense is gonna stink. Ithink Stafford might be cooked. I don't
understand the cam Akers optimism. Canyou try to Can you try to explain
it to me? Or are youalso out? Yeah? I'm not I'm
not all the way out. Butyou know, get back to me in
(27:11):
a couple of weeks, and Imight be closer to where you are than
where the consensus is. Yeah,like the Rams, Like, you're right,
the Rams are not a very goodfootball team. And I don't know,
I don't even know what they're overrundre is, But well whatever,
it's petty und there. They're notgonna Yeah, they're they're not gonna They're
not gonna win a lot of gamesthis year. But in defense of cam
Akers had a hundred yards and eachof the last three games last year,
(27:33):
and he had six touchdowns in thelast seven games final seven games last year.
He's a talented running back. Nowdoes he just need to be in
the right position then, you know, to do that? Does he need
talent around them to continue that forseventeen games? It remains to be seen.
Yeah, Like I probably like forme, he's probably not an RB
two. He's probably like a guya guy at spots start and in most
(27:56):
cases, you know, probably likein the mid twenties as far as my
RB rankings. But I don't Idon't think he's a complete lost cause I
don't think he's big ARB thirty fivebut I think I think he's I think
you showed enough at the end oflast year where you can you know,
you can use a mid round pickon him, and you know, maybe
you hit something. But again,if you think the Rams are going to
be bad, and again I kindof colostig on that, then I understand
(28:18):
why you're you're not quite as optimisticabout cam Makers a summer. All right,
Roy, I'm glad I had youon to steal some of steal some
of your knowledge for my draft tomorrowand also for the Gambler Fantasy draft we
i've coming up. I recorded thatI'll listen to it again so I can
make sure I sneak your players rightout right off from under your end draft.
But now I'm just joking. Thanksso much for coming on, Roy,
(28:41):
Thanks Gentaman, I appreciate it.Good stuff. That was awesome,
Awesome stuff from Roy, who Ithink we'll be having on a ton more
throughout the season. You can followhim over at at the BS line and
at GT Decision. I love havingsomeone who takes fantasy football seriously here at
the Gambler. It's awesome. Ithink Roy is the man. So on
the other side, we're going tocontinue with the fantasy football thoughts and keep
(29:04):
it going with some of my donot draft guys and also some guys I'm
targeting. But I think the donot draft list is a little sexier,
so the do not draft lists onthe other side, right here on the Gambler
Welcome back to the Tough Cover RadioShow. Excited to bring this guest on
first time. We're having this gueston talking some fantasy football, and I'm
happy that he is here at theGambler. Now. You can follow on
Twitter at the bs line Roy Burtonover there. You can check out at
(00:35):
GT Decision, Game Time Decision,his fantasy up, his fantasy Twitter account
there. Roy, thanks so muchfor coming on to talk some fantasy football.
Mark and Sewn, thank you forhaving me. I appreciate it,
of course, of course. Andwe're gonna have Sewn throwing some questions too
over there. I know Shan's notas locked in, I think as we
are on fantasy, but he gettingthere. He was sending to me some
(00:57):
takes. I'm I'm I'm pumped tohere what he throws out at you.
But we were talking off air onsome guys that you're higher on, guys
you're lower on than consensus, andwe're just gonna run through some of them,
run through some some strategy questions andwhat people should be doing in their
drafts out there. But let's actuallystart out with that in terms of the
(01:19):
first round. I think an oldadage and fantasy football is that you can't
win your draft in the first round, but you can lose your draft in
the first round. Is there anythingyou're seeing people do in the first round,
whether it be at the top ofthe draft, in the middle,
in the back end, that youkind of cringe at and you go,
I don't know that that might bea potential kind of league loser in the
(01:44):
first round there. And I thinkpeople usually well, at least from what
I've seen, at least in termsof the harishtraft position. I think people
have, you know, are doingpretty well in the first round. I
think you know, most importantly,the most important thing that you want to
do if you're drafting in the firstround again, make sure that you know
what your league is, your leaguerules are, especially if you're drafting in
(02:06):
a either a PPR league or halfPPR league. If you're drafting, you
know, in the first round andyou're drafting in one of those types of
leagues, make sure you get somebodywho's going to get some targets, like
not just you know, not justthe running back who only gets rushing there.
It's like, if you're going todraft a running back, get a
guy like a Christian McCaffrey or analso neckler who's going to catch some passes,
or Eve gonna be Geen Robinson who'sgoing to catch some passes in in
Atlanta. Or draft yourself a bigtime wide receiver, get yourself a Justin
(02:29):
Jefferson, get yourself a Tyree killerJamar Chiefs, or you know even at
Travis Kelsey's going to get a lotof targets. So I think people,
you know, like if as longas you pay enough attention to your league
and league rules in your league scoring, then you know, your first round
pick should be pretty much a slamdunk because again, other than injuries,
you know, you should, youknow, be able to find a super
talented guy who's going to put upa number pot a number of points in
(02:51):
your league. And from what I'veseen this year, I think most people
are kind of abiding by that strategy. So does that mean in terms of
the targets, if we're only draftingguys in the first round with arcus,
does that mean we're a little skepticalon guys like a Nick Chubb, guys
like a Derrick Henry who those guyspretty much get all their points out of
the backfield. I think Henry didhave a little bit higher and catches last
(03:12):
year. In Chubb has had somesuccess in the past, but mainly they're
not guys like a McCaffrey or anEckler, potentially Bijan or some of these
other guys. Are those guys you'rekind of shying away from in the first
round, Yeah for me. Forme, those guys are right outside of
the first round for me, Yeah, like they're probably they're they're definitely early
second round picks. If you're ina AT ten or twelve team league,
(03:32):
Like for me, then Nick Chubis probably my thirteenth guy overall, and
Derrick Henrys like my fifteenth guy overall. And you're right, Derrick Henry you
know, had a decent season forhim in terms of receptions. He has
thirty three catches last year. Butnow you have you know, you have
you know, Treylon Burkes and DeAndreHopkins. There you have a Chicka Tankuo
who's kind of you know, emergingas a tight end. So I don't
(03:53):
know if Derrick Henry is gonna getthose type of receptions in twenty twenty three.
So yeah, I don't think he'syou know, necessarily can be your
RB one if you draft a widereceiver in the first round. But I
necessarily wouldn't pick a Derrick Henry inthe first round, as you said,
because again, he just doesn't getthat much volume in terms of in terms
of receptions. And then sticking withthe first round, and you mentioned,
(04:15):
you know, you want to geta guy with the targets, and you
ran through the running backs, youran through the steaves, and he said,
oh, and you know, evenTravis Kelsey obviously is going to get
a lot of those. My bigfantasy take this year is that I think
you could make a legitimate argument forTravis Kelsey is the number one overall pick.
He's not my rank there. Ihave justin Jefferson rank number one overall.
If I had the first pick,I would take Jefferson. I have
(04:35):
Kelsey two. And I think hehas an argument due to how good he
is at his position and how muchbetter he is than the number two tight
end, and how bad kind ofeven if you look at like the number
eight tight end, number nine tightend last year, they were averaging like
eight to ten fantasy points per game, and Kelsey's doubled that, like and
that's not that's like a middling guyat the position. It's not even like
(04:57):
you have a terrible situation. Soyeah, I just think that the value
he brings a tight end is worthtaking above any running backs in the draft,
and is worth taking above a Jamar, above a Cooper Cup, above
a Tyreek Hill. What do youthink about that? I don't have too
many arguments with what you just saidthere. I wouldn't take him one.
(05:18):
But if you if you told methat that he's your second best pass catcher
behind Justin Jefferson, I wouldn't.I wouldn't talk you down off that ledge
too much. I mean, Tyree, Travis Kelsey is just super consistent.
And when it comes to fantasy there'sthere's two things that I like. I
like guys who did a lot oftargets, and I like guys who are
super consistent. And Travis Kelsey lastyear he had at least four catches in
(05:42):
every game. Last season, hehad twelve games with thirteen or more Fantasy
points. Like the man like,every time you put him in the lineup,
he's going to get you double digitfantasy points. And he has,
you know, the capability of havingthose big games. You know where he
has you know the twenty five andthirty Fantasy points, and you're right,
Like the difference between him and youknow tight End two on the board probably
for most people in Mark Andrews,it's pretty significant. And the difference between
(06:05):
him and you know tight End youknow, nine or ten on the board
probably like a David and Joke whoor something, it's huge. I mean
it's it's a huge gap between thosetwo guys. So yeah, Travis Kelson
to me, is is absolutely He'sa top ten pick in all you know,
in all fantasy formats. And I'mnot as bullish on him as you
are. But if you if youwant to make a case where he's a
(06:26):
top five pick in your fantasy league, again, I'm not gonna I'm not
gonna argue argue down from that forsure. And then yeah, yeah,
go ahead. And to jump inon kind of the number one pick conversation,
I was texting with Mark before this, but I've seen some momentum of
Austin Ekeler being ranked a little bitahead of Christian McCaffrey on some sites and
things like that. I personally thinkthat's crazy and I think McCaffrey should be
the number one running back, andI also side with Mark that I would
(06:47):
rank Justin Jefferson ahead of both ofthem. So how do you feel about
that? And if you're on theclock with the number one pick, who
are you taking? Right? Soyeah, I'll give you my top three.
My top three as of right now, I don't think this will change.
My top three is Justin jeff Person, Christian McCaffrey, and Alston Eckler
in that aver. So I thinkwe're probably on the same I think we're
up robbing the same wavelength when itcomes to that. I don't think the
(07:08):
Eckler I don't think the Ekla thingis super crazy. Eckler over CMC is
super crazy because Alston Eckler, again, he's a target monster, had one
hundred and twenty seven targets last year, one hundred and seven catches. But
Christian McCaffrey, he was just sogood when he came over to San fran
last year and halfway through the seasonhe had three twenty five plus point games
(07:29):
last year after he joined the nineErs. You know, he had a
total of eighty five perceptions last year. He's just a super consistent guy and
he's a better runner than Alston Eckler. He's gonna probably get you Neither one
of those guys as a necessarily athousand yard back rushing, but I think
he's a he's a better runner.He's gonna get you more consistent rushing yards
than than Austin Eckler. So Ihad him. I'll say it's a little
(07:50):
bit more than a hair over AltonEckler. But again, after Justin Jefferson,
it's just about a coin flip betweenMcCaffrey Neckler because both of those guys
are gonna put up to the numbersjust about every week. And you mentioned
a couple names that you're really highon. You mentioned like two names that
I totally agree with in terms ofone guy you're high on, I'm totally
in with you, one guy you'relow on, I'm totally in with you,
(08:11):
and then one guy you're gonna haveto I'm right in the middle on.
And then one guy I'm in onthat you're out on. So it's
a fun We got all the sidesof things. But let's talk about one
that we agree on. Brandon Cooks. I think Brandon Cooks is a steel
in fantasy draft where he is going. I don't think people realize, and
I don't think people have ever realizedhow good Brandon Cooks has been throughout his
(08:33):
career. He's been a little bitof a journeyman. He's been on so
many teams, he's had so manydifferent quarterbacks, but he's been remarkably consistent.
I mean, even last year,one of the worst years of his
career, fifty seven catches for sevenhundred yards and three touchdowns with long neck
Davis Mills getting him the ball there. The year before with Davis Mills he
had ninety catches for a thousand yardsand six touchdowns. And then obviously before
(08:56):
that with Watson, he was reallygood. With Goff, he had really
good years. Brady had a reallygood year with Breezy, had really good
years. And now he's back withI mean, Sean Bernard might throw something
at me for saying this, buthe's back with a good quarterback in Dak
Prescott, so I think, andDak, whatever you want to say about
him, he airs the ball outand he throws passing touchdowns. I mean
two years ago he had you know, I have four thousand something yards thirty
(09:18):
seven touchdowns. Let's steer the ship. You lose Dalton Schultz, and you
add Brandon Cooks. Tell me whyyou're so high on Brandon Cooks, because
I'm totally in agreement with you.Now you you just laid out the taste
for Brandon Cooks right there, likeyou know, there's no more Dalton Schultz.
You know you have a quarterback inDak Prescott who's going to throw for
four thousand yards. You got theghost of Michael Gallup. He's not going
(09:41):
to really be taking too many targetsaway from from from Cooks and from Ceedee
Land. I like Brandy Cooks.I really like Brandon Cooks. Like I
almost didn't want to come on theshow and talk about Brandon Cooks because I
think three of us are probably goingto be in a fantasy lead together.
I didn't want to. I didn'twant to profess my love for Brandon Cooks
over the airways. But you knowyou asked the questions, so I will
(10:01):
answer no. Brandon Cooks to meis probably wild. I don't say wildly,
but he's probably being drafted a coupleof rounds too low in most fantasy
leagues before he's good. I thinkhe's probably you know, on taste for
you know, i'd say, likemaybe like a fifty fifty five catch users
for like eight hundred and fifty yards, maybe five touchdowns. I think you
could be a really good wide receiverthree for most fantasy lineups. And he's
(10:22):
a guy you can probably start everyweek, you know, given that Bella's
offense. I know, I know, it's Philadelphia and we're supposed to hate
DA, supposed to hate the Cowboys, and we do. But when it
comes to fantasy, you have todraft guys who are productive. And I
really think Brandon Cooks is in agood spot to be productive this year and
a guy that I kind of havebegrudgingly talked myself into throughout the off season.
(10:43):
And I want to preface this,I'm not saying that I think this
guy should be your certified starting quarterbackfor fantasy football. But Russell Wilson is
probably a stock at an all timelow. Before the show I saw ranking
him as the seventeenth quarterback. Ifeel like that swings too low, and
I'm buying that stock from both theyfantasy and real quarterback perspective. I like
Jay g d a whole lot.I like Courtland Sutton a lot. How
(11:05):
do you feel about Russell Wilson.I'm also buying into how bad Nathaniel Hackett
was last year and how much thatplayed into things. So what's your outlook
for Russell Wilson and really the Broncosoffense as a whole. So I personally
have Russell Wilson is my sixteenth bestfantasy quarterback. I think that's about I
think that ranking is about right becauseyou know, once you kind of go
(11:26):
through the list of guys who youknow are almost certain to have a better
year than Russell Wilson, I thinkyou gets about ten, you know ten
guys, and they're definitive guys,so you know, like so basically you're
at the point where is he goingto be better than Daniel Jones, Aaron
Rodgers, you know, Jared Goff, you know Geno Smith, like those
guys, and I don't think so. Again, I'm a little bit high
(11:48):
on Jerry Julie as well. Ijust have a lot of questions about the
rest of the offense, and Ihave a lot of questions about, you
know, the health of the JavonteWilliams and the health of well somebody.
If he run's fine, but again, if he has to be the number
one running back. Can you carrythe load in Denver? I just there's
a lot going on in that Denveroffens that I need to see something on
the field before I kind of jumpback on the Russell Wilson bandwagon, because
(12:09):
he was he was pretty awful lastyear from from a fantasy perspective. He
had nine games last year we hadleft in fifteen fantasy points. So he
really wasn't a good fantasy quarterback.So I can't under any circumstances say that,
you know, he should be yourfantasy quarterback one, because I think
you can get a comparable guy aroundthat same position. Again, you can
(12:31):
probably get you know, if peopleare still buying low on Gino Smith,
and Gino Smith was the fifth bestfantasy quarterback last year, So if I
can, you know, if Ican get Gino Smith and you know around
you know, ten or eleven,you know, at the same time,
I would get Russell Wilson, andI'd definitely take Gino Smith in that spot.
Imagine saying that a year ago.By the way, it's crazy,
I'm right there with you. Ismy QB ten, So I'm all over
(12:54):
Gino. I have Russett QB fourteen. I think so I'm a little bit
higher than you, but not crazy, not crazy high, and honestly,
that tier kind of it runs togethera little bit. You mentioned you mentioned
my ride or Die guy this year, my number one guy in fantasy this
year, and again, like youmentioned, you didn't want to say something
on air. I have my biggestdraft that I've been in for fifteen years
(13:15):
tomorrow, and I'm sure my buddieswho never listened to my radio show are
all tuned in today. So I'malmost afraid to say certain things, but
I will six I said it onTwitter. Jerry Judy's been the guy all
off season, and it's annoying becausenow he caught that touchdown last night and
he's rising already. There's been allthese reports, there was a couple of
injuries, so I feel like he'sstarting to be drafted closer to where I
think he should be. I havehim as a top thirteen receiver this year.
(13:39):
I think he's a guy who youcan justify taking at the end of
the third round into the fourth round. I am in love with what I
think he can do. This year, he was wide receiver twenty two on
one of the worst offenses in modernhistory, with a quarterback play that was
in the toilet. He has sixtyseven catches, nine h seventy two yards,
six touchdowns. I just don't Ithink that's the floor. Like,
(14:00):
if we're saying that his floor iswide receiver twenty two, how is he
going to be worse than he waslast year? Am I crazy? On
Judy? Wide receiver third? That'spretty rich for Jerry Judy. Yeah,
I hope you take him at thathigh in our league. I put it
like that. I'm not that bigof a fan on Jerry Judy, Like,
like you know, I have himprobably around like the early twenties.
(14:22):
So of my wide receiver rankings,I just still have a lot. Like
I said before, I have alot of questions about that that Denver Offington,
and that's not even the Denver offhas necessarily because again I think Jerry
Jude's talented. I think there's justa lot of a lot of talented receivers
in good spots this year. Likeagain, guys who are in that same
range. You know that Terry mclauren. Again, I think he's gonna get
(14:45):
the lion share of the catches inWashington. I think Cala Ridley's gonna be
fantastic. I think he's never anexcellent year in Jacksonville, d J.
Moore. In Chicago, he hada career high seven touchdowns last year.
I think the Chicago offense has beengoing to be a little bit better at
Christian Watson's gonna get a bunch ofwork in Green Bay. So it's not
really necessarily knock on Jerry Judy thatI have him so low. I just
think there's a whole bunch of widereceivers in that i'd say fifteen to twenty
(15:09):
five range and on the most people'sboards that I think are just going to
have a really good season, evenTyler Lockett and Seattle. Again with Gino
Smith, you have Tyler Lockett,you have DK Metcalf and Jackson Smith Najiba,
you have a really talented offense.And I think all those guys are
gonna get some work. So Ijust think there's a lot of really good
receivers who are going to get targets, and I think Jerry Judy among that
(15:31):
group is probably I don't see thead man out, but you might get
the least I'm on a work outof those guys. I don't know if
there's legs to this. Roy.This might be something we can discuss,
but I think we're gonna eventually bedoing a lot a little bit of a
live draft on YouTube where it's likea lot of the guys at the Gambler
get together and we do I don'tknow if that's gonna be live or if
we do a recap after the fact, but we're definitely gonna want to have
(15:52):
you on. I don't know ifthis is a bet we should make now
or a bet we should make later, A little friendly on air wager.
I'm really low on DJ Moore andTyler Lockett comparatively to Judy, so I
would love to do a Judy Judyverse DJ Moore or Judy verse Lockett.
I would love to do something likethat, Judy Judy Lockett. Let's do
a Judy Lockett side wager. Wheneverthis goes down, I will do a
(16:17):
Judy Lockett tide wager. Put meon, put me on board, write
it down, put it on theboard. I like that. I like
that a lot like I'm in.I'm in. That's as past and present
right there that Yeah, you're right, you're right, and I'll throw another
stat at you over the last fiveweeks. Jerry Judy average twenty point one
four Fantasy points per game at theend of Hackett and then post Hackett as
(16:37):
opposed to eleven point four in hisfirst nine games. I'm also just like
Judy's been a guy I've loved sincehe came out in the draft as a
draft nerd that I am he Ithink, and you look at the underlying
metrics, like his separation numbers areabsurd. I think he's the type of
guy. I think we're finally goingto see some of those elite skills kind
of kind of show out. Andanother guy who I think has elite skills
I meant to ask when we startedtalking about Dallas. But going back a
(17:00):
little bit, I'm sorry Eagles fansout there to talk more about Dallas.
But another one of my guys thisyear who I find myself drafting pretty much
no matter where I'm drafting in thesecond round if he's available, is Tony
Pollard. Tony Pollard is a guywho I've really been targeting. He's going
around the top five running backs rightoutside of it. Maybe for me,
I think he should be squarely inthat top five running back conversation. Last
(17:23):
year, the Cowboys had the numbereight fantasy running back and the number twenty
two fantasy running back despite both missingtwo games apiece. The one guy's gone
and the one guy's there. Whatdo you and not to mention Mike McCarthy
and everything he's said about wanting torun the ball more, what do you
think about Tony Pollard this year?And where should he be going in drafts?
All right, So now I amofficially regretting coming on this program today
(17:45):
because again I have to give awaysome of the secret sauce when when it
comes to the fantasy thing. BecauseTony Pollard's my guy, He's my RB
six on my list. Love TonyPollard. I think he's I think he's
really good. He was RB FantasyRB five the second half of last season.
He has you know, five pointone yards per carry you first career
(18:07):
and again like he's like you said, he's the clear number one running back
in Dallas, and again Dallas isgoing to run the ball. Well you
know, whether Zack Martin's there ornot. I really like Tony Pollard.
I have I have a Google dotof basically it's called guys. I like
either like you guys who I targetand guys who I'm looking forward to to
to drafting. Tony Poller's on thatlist and Brandon Cooks is on LST.
(18:29):
I really like those guys. Andagain, I know we're predisposed to hate
Dallas and all things Dallas football inthis town, but those guys are there
definitely targets for me in fantasy thisyear. For sure. You want to
hear something crazy, you said RBsix, I have Tony Pollard RB three.
Wow. RB three, that's howhigh I am I put. I'm
putting my money where my mouth iswith some of my guys this year.
(18:52):
And I all right, you couldconvince people I don't hate it. I
don't hate it I have. Ihave Pollard, Bijan, and sa Quon
projected within ten points of each other. So I have all three of those
guys, my RB three, fourand five. I have them basically even
I'd rather bet on the Dallas offensethan the New York or the Atlanta offense,
to be quite honest. And thatleads us. That leads us into
(19:12):
a conversation about someone you mentioned.You said Affair that you're not a big
Desmond Ritter guy. I'm right herewith you. I am not. I
don't think he's an NFL starting quarterbackin any capacity, But does that poison
the well for some of the guyson the Falcons roster? Obviously such incredible
skill position talent on the Falcons withJon at running back, with Kyle Pitts
(19:34):
my guy who has just never livedup to my lofty expectations at tight end,
and Drake London at wide receiver.Is it a case by case basis?
Are you kind of higher or loweron any of those three guys?
That's Ritter kind of ruin those three. So that's a very good point.
And I kind of like in thisI use a basketball analogy since we have
shown in the building, so Ikind of like it. It's like a
(19:55):
basketball basketball analogy were I think theaverage you know, points per game for
an NB eighteen is like one hundredand ten or something like tone thereabouts,
right, So the way I figuredit is like, you know, your
stars are gonna get you, likeyou know, like let's say using the
sixers, let's say last year,like you know, and beat in the
hard and we'll get you fifty five. Right, somebody else has to get
those other fifty five. So Ithink, like in Atlanta, like they're
(20:15):
probably gonna throw for it might notbe a lot, you know, but
doesn't really probably gonna have like threethousand yards thirty two hundred yards. Again,
not a great season for seventeen games, but it is what it is.
Somebody has to get these yards,right, Like, like Drake London
is not gonna have two thousand yards, So Drake London's gonna get his thousands.
But then, you know, macHollins is their number was there wide
receiver number two right now? Heain't getting those yards. So like I
(20:38):
think the Gen Robinson and I thinkKyle Pitts are still going to eat.
They might not you know, eatyou know, bunch to the level of
well the odd thousand the yards,but I think they'll both have a pretty
decent season, not you know,not you know, eye popping numbers probably
go out to eat the ball,I'll say, receiving wise out of the
Gen Robinson. But I think there'sjust just enough numbers in the fact that
(20:59):
Ilan is going to have to throwthe ball enough throw the ball a lot
that those guys are going to havedecent years. So I'm not overly concerned.
Yes, I would much rather thanhave a more proven quarterback throwing to
them, But I think Robinson andPitts and in London are talented enough where
like, again, somebody has toget these three thousand yards Atlanta's gonna have
this year, So I think Ithink the three of them are gonna going
(21:21):
to benefit from that more than anyoneelse. And one of the interesting conversations
throughout this whole offseason has been aboutrunning backs and they're paved, they're worth
all that. We're seeing more andmore of the running back by committee,
and honestly, like there's much moreof the plug and play running back than
we've ever seen before. From afantasy perspective, do you value the guys
that you do know are going toget those touches a little more because of
(21:41):
that? Or what's your outlook?Because when you look beyond the kind of
the top dogs with the running backposition, it is still pretty plug and
play. I mean, even lookat the Eagles that we have no real
feel for who's going to get atouch the most touches on a week to
week basis. So from a fantasyperspective, how do you kind of weigh
that and where do you kind ofshift that in your ranking system. Yeah,
that's that's another good question. Yeah, Like you like you said,
(22:02):
like there's maybe like ten guys inthe league that you know we're gonna get,
you know, like maybe you know, fifty five sixty percent of the
carriers for their teams, and ideally, you know, I would like to
get one of those guys. Butagain, depending on how the draft falls
and checks out and things like that, that's not necessarily the case. So
when it comes you know, youknow, when it comes to that,
I think it's you know, Ithink you kind of just do the best
(22:25):
you can as far as you know, like looking at depth, Charles looking
at injury history, he's looking atyou know, like the preseason work and
trying to you know, try tofigure out who's going to get most of
the carriers for their team like theycould you know, looks like a team
like Chicago, like Kali Herbert is, you know, getting he's you know,
RB one on your depth chart.Now you know he's as right now
he's ahead of Dante Foreman. SoI would probably take Herbert because again he's
(22:48):
been in the Chicago system, youknow, for a couple of years.
You know, he's probably going toenter the season and you know at RB
one and yeah, he might sharethe carries, but I think he's probably
going to get more carries than most. I'll look at a guy like,
let's say it, could you know, James Cook and Buffalo. Again,
Buffalo is not you know, theydon't they don't run the ball a lot.
But I think you'll probably wind upgetting more carries in a Damian Harris,
you know, because again because ofhis history. So it's a little
(23:11):
it's a little tough because you know, everybody wants a Tony Pollard or a
Nick Chubb or you know those guyswho are going to get eighteen twenty twenty
two carries, but they're not alwaysout there. There's not enough out there
for every team. So you gotto figure out, all right, you
know, like who's gonna get themost carries on you know in Detroit,
is gonna be Jamir gizz Is,It's gonna be you know, uh,
David Montgomery. You know who's gonnayou know, what's gonna happen in New
(23:33):
Orleans when Alvin Kamara comes back,because Alvin Camara is gonna be the league
guy or it's still gonna be JamalWilliams or what so's it really is tough,
Like I think, you know,I think my my personal strategy is
to try to get one of thosedefinite guys you know, you know in
the first couple of rounds and thenyou know, again just do your do
your best, you know, yourdue diligence to find guys who are going
to get you know, the mostcarries on the team going forward, and
(23:53):
then you're going to miss on some. But if you hit on the couple
that you can start every week,then I think that's all you can do.
And along those lines, you havetwo running backs here, one that
you're out on and one that you'rein on. The guy that you're in
on, Alexander Madison, I'm probablylike exactly consensus, Like I probably have
him around twenty one or twenty twoamong running backs, which is probably right
around the industry consensus. So talkto me why and he I think does
(24:18):
fit what you just talked about,Like there's probably not a lot of competition
for touches with Madison in Minnesota,so that is a big factor. But
another guy, Rashad White, butyou're out on I kind of feel the
same way about. And I knowTampa's offense is going to struggle, but
I think there's just not going tobe a lot of competition for him in
terms of catches and touches. Sowhy are you in Madison and out on
(24:41):
White? Well, I'll answer theWhite question first. I just think Tampa
Bay stinks and I think that TampaBay and bad teams are going to throw
the ball. And if you throwthe ball, that means less touches for
Rashad White. So you know there'sTampa Bay's down fourteen and nothing in the
first quarter, and again it's gonnabe a lot of a lot of time,
you know, forty yard you know, forty forty attempt games for Kyle
(25:04):
Traska, Baker Mayfield, who everstarts down there. And I just don't
think. I just don't think Wisingto get a lot of work this year.
I think I'm more optimistic about Minnesotathan most people. I don't think
the name is that bad. Iknow what they want, like thirteen games
last I don't think they think they'rethat good. But I think the the
over under and draft kings last timeI check, was even half wins from
Minnesota in that division, and Ithink that's a bit low. I mean,
(25:26):
I think Kirk Cousins is fine.I liked the wide receiver room,
you know, obviously Justin Jefferson andJordan Addison. I liked the two of
them a lot. And when Madison'shad times when he's gotten the carries in
the past, when he's had this, I think he's only had like five
starts in the NFL. But whenhe's gotten the opportunity to get touches at
a starter level, he's produced prettywell. Again, like he's he's produced
(25:48):
not quite at Dolin Cook levels,but he has been a solid starting running
back in those limited opportunities. SoI think I think Madison's fine. I
think he's probably I think he canknock on the door of a thousand you
know, talk you gifts there,but I think you can put up a
nine hundred yards season, maybe getanother thirty catches out of the backfield,
you know, nothing, nothing crazy. But again I think he's better than
(26:08):
him. I don't know where he'sbeing drafted, me like a seventh eighth
round DRAFTI now, I think it'sa little bit higher than that for sure.
And then one last question on yourway out here, there's a guy
who for a long time I justhaven't understood, Like, I don't understand
why we try to make this happen. Why are we trying to make cam
Akers happen every year? Like Ithink the guys just confirmed bad. Like
(26:29):
I don't understand it. I neverhave understood it. I have him like
outside of my top thirty five andrunning backs, like there's just no scenario
I draft him. I'm also superby the way I not to brush over.
Me and Sean both like that Minnesotaover eight and a half. We
both have them winning the division whereI don't. I don't really. I
think Jefferson gives you such a highfloor as an offense it's just absurd.
(26:51):
And then adding Addison's awesome. Butthe Rams, I think a lot of
people are expecting the Rams just toturn around and they're just gonna be better.
That roster stinks. I think they'reroster. Their stinks. I think
their offense is gonna stink. Ithink Stafford might be cooked. I don't
understand the cam Akers optimism. Canyou try to Can you try to explain
it to me? Or are youalso out? Yeah? I'm not I'm
not all the way out. Butyou know, get back to me in
(27:11):
a couple of weeks, and Imight be closer to where you are than
where the consensus is. Yeah,like the Rams, Like, you're right,
the Rams are not a very goodfootball team. And I don't know,
I don't even know what they're overrundre is, But well whatever,
it's petty und there. They're notgonna Yeah, they're they're not gonna They're
not gonna win a lot of gamesthis year. But in defense of cam
Akers had a hundred yards and eachof the last three games last year,
(27:33):
and he had six touchdowns in thelast seven games final seven games last year.
He's a talented running back. Nowdoes he just need to be in
the right position then, you know, to do that? Does he need
talent around them to continue that forseventeen games? It remains to be seen.
Yeah, Like I probably like forme, he's probably not an RB
two. He's probably like a guya guy at spots start and in most
(27:56):
cases, you know, probably likein the mid twenties as far as my
RB rankings. But I don't Idon't think he's a complete lost cause I
don't think he's big ARB thirty fivebut I think I think he's I think
you showed enough at the end oflast year where you can you know,
you can use a mid round pickon him, and you know, maybe
you hit something. But again,if you think the Rams are going to
be bad, and again I kindof colostig on that, then I understand
(28:18):
why you're you're not quite as optimisticabout cam Makers a summer. All right,
Roy, I'm glad I had youon to steal some of steal some
of your knowledge for my draft tomorrowand also for the Gambler Fantasy draft we
i've coming up. I recorded thatI'll listen to it again so I can
make sure I sneak your players rightout right off from under your end draft.
But now I'm just joking. Thanksso much for coming on, Roy,
(28:41):
Thanks Gentaman, I appreciate it.Good stuff. That was awesome,
Awesome stuff from Roy, who Ithink we'll be having on a ton more
throughout the season. You can followhim over at at the BS line and
at GT Decision. I love havingsomeone who takes fantasy football seriously here at
the Gambler. It's awesome. Ithink Roy is the man. So on
the other side, we're going tocontinue with the fantasy football thoughts and keep
(29:04):
it going with some of my donot draft guys and also some guys I'm
targeting. But I think the donot draft list is a little sexier,
so the do not draft lists onthe other side, right here on the Gambler
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