2025 Fall Market Rate Prediction With BMO Mortgage Specialist: Mychal Ferreira

In this week’s episode, we sit down with Canada’s No. 1 BMO Mortgage Specialist, Mychal Ferrera, to break down what’s really happening in the housing and lending markets as we head into the fall season. Historically, autumn has been one of the busiest times of year for Canadian real estate—but 2025 is shaping up to be anything but typical. Between lingering inflation pressures, a sluggish jobs market, and whispers of a U.S. rate cut, buyers and homeowners alike are wondering whether now is the moment to act—or wait on the sidelines.

Mychal offers his perspective on where fixed and variable mortgage rates are likely to trend in the coming months. With the Bank of Canada holding steady since June, and speculation mounting that further easing may be required to stimulate growth, the conversation tackles whether locking in a fixed rate still makes sense—or if a variable product may offer more flexibility in an uncertain environment. We also explore the big picture: affordability. While home prices across Canada remain, on average, about $150,000 lower than their 2022 peak, affordability is still the No. 1 barrier for many would-be buyers. Mychal shares how clients are navigating tighter budgets and what strategies lenders are using to help people make the numbers work.

We revisit one of the most stressful chapters in recent mortgage history: trigger rates and payment shocks. Last year, homeowners feared widespread defaults as record-low pandemic mortgages reset into a much higher-rate world. Mychal walks us through what actually happened, how most borrowers weathered the storm, and what he’s seeing now as a massive 60% of all mortgages are set to renew in 2025–2026. With billions in household debt up for repricing, the stakes are enormous—and the way Canadians respond could define the housing market for the rest of the decade.

But it’s not all doom and gloom. Mychal also gives us an inside look at new mortgage originations heading into fall. Are buyers cautiously stepping back into the market, hoping to snag a deal? Are refinances stabilizing? Or is the wait-and-see mentality still dominating? His insights cut through the noise and provide actionable guidance for both buyers debating their next move and homeowners staring down a renewal.

Finally, we look ahead: will there even be a fall market in 2025? Activity has been muted through much of the year, but history shows Canadians can’t stay on the sidelines forever. Whether it’s pent-up demand, lower rates, or simply buyers adjusting to the “new normal,” this season could surprise us.

This episode is a must-listen for anyone curious about where rates, affordability, and market activity are heading.

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