Housing Has Outpaced Wages by 700% – But That May Be Ending Now

Since the 1980s, Canadian real estate prices have increased 700% faster than wages, and the consequences of that imbalance are starting to surface across the country. In this episode, we unpack a dramatic shift in the housing market that could signal the end of a four-decade bull run. We begin with new data showing that real wages have barely moved in 43 years—up just 24%—while real estate values, even after recent declines, are still up over 160% after inflation. That divergence has fuelled inequality, made homeownership feel unattainable for younger generations, and created what some economists are now calling a return to neo-feudalism—where wealth and housing access are increasingly concentrated among the few.

We also explore the Bank of Canada's recent messaging, where the odds of a rate cut in July have fallen to just 25%, with markets now pricing in only one more cut for the rest of 2025. That would leave mortgage rates not far from where they are today, providing little relief for buyers. Meanwhile, the condo pre-sale market is collapsing, especially in Toronto, where there is now over 58 months of inventory—meaning it could take until 2030 to absorb what’s already built. As sales disappear, so too do new condo starts, and building permits in April dropped by 14.6% year-over-year, led by a 20.5% decline in multi-family construction, with Vancouver alone accounting for nearly $1 billion of the pullback.

On the employment front, Canada’s job market is flashing warning signs. The national unemployment rate rose to 7% in May, the highest in nearly a decade outside of the pandemic. Ontario hit 7.9% and Toronto 9%, with youth unemployment hitting a staggering 20.1%—the worst since the 1990s. As hiring stalls and cost pressures mount, many students and recent grads are being locked out of the workforce entirely, casting a long shadow over household formation and future housing demand. This is a leading indicator of broader economic weakness and a key reason why the housing market could be facing deeper structural problems ahead.

Finally, while average rents in Canada have now fallen for eight consecutive months year-over-year, they remain 12.6% higher than just three years ago. That’s a partial win for tenants, but another blow to investors who are already grappling with declining condo values and stagnant prices. Sales volumes are flat month-over-month and prices remain stable, but beneath the surface, Canada’s housing fundamentals are shifting fast.

This episode connects the dots between affordability, generational inequality, interest rates, and a rapidly softening condo sector. If you're a buyer, seller, investor, or simply trying to understand where Canadian real estate is headed next—this is the update you can’t afford to miss.

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