Uncharted Territory: Canada’s Population Drops & Real Estate Reacts

Canada is entering a new and unfamiliar chapter—one defined not by explosive population growth, but by a dramatic slowdown that could rewrite the country’s real estate narrative. In fact, Canada just recorded one of the lowest levels of population growth seen in over 70 years. Only two other quarters in modern history have posted weaker numbers: the height of pandemic lockdowns in 2020 and the global energy downturn of 2015. But now, for the first time outside of a crisis, population growth is grinding to a near halt—and the implications for housing are massive.

Ontario and British Columbia—two provinces that have long driven real estate demand—actually saw population declines in Q1 2025, with Ontario contracting by 5,700 people and B.C. by 2,400. That’s virtually uncharted territory for regions that typically lead the country in net migration and property price acceleration. The federal government’s 2024 decision to scale back immigration targets—both temporary and permanent—has now triggered six consecutive quarters of slowing growth. Meanwhile, non-permanent resident totals dropped by over 61,000, even as deaths outpaced births by more than 5,600. What we’re witnessing is a foundational demographic shift—one that’s sending ripples through every corner of the housing market.

This episode of The Vancouver Life Podcast dives deep into what this demographic reversal means for real estate prices, rental demand, construction starts, and investor sentiment. With record-breaking levels of purpose-built rentals under construction and fewer people arriving to occupy them, we expect continued downward pressure on rental rates. In fact, Metro Vancouver rents have dropped $114 over the past year, including $52 in the last month alone, bringing average monthly rent to $2,223. Even furnished units now offer only marginal premiums, making furniture investments for landlords a poor ROI.

As demand slows, so do housing prices. Canada’s national benchmark price fell for the sixth consecutive month in May, landing at $690,900—the same level we saw in May 2021 and nearly 18% below the 2022 peak. Inventory is rising, with more than 200,000 listings on the market nationwide, yet buyer sentiment remains fragile. Though sales inched up in May, they are still down over 4% year-over-year. And the only provinces seeing real price gains are smaller markets like Manitoba and Newfoundland—while the heavyweights of B.C. and Ontario drag the national average down.

Housing starts are falling too. In B.C., starts dropped 29% from April to May alone. Multi-family builds fell even harder—down 33% month-over-month and 19% compared to last year. The six-month moving average for starts has dropped 30% since its peak in 2023, and that trend is expected to continue. Cities like Nanaimo and Kelowna have seen construction plummet by as much as 75% and 45%, respectively. The result? The pipeline of new housing is drying up—just as rental supply is peaking and demand is waning. 

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Dan’s New Channel:  www.youtube.com/@VancouversTopRealtor 

Ryan’s New Channel: www.youtube.com/@ryan_thevancouverlife 

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