The Math of Predicting (and Profiting from) the Future: from Cat Bonds to Hedge Funds | Sarah Kapnick, Head of Climate Advisory at J.P. Morgan

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Sarah Kapnick literally trained under John Nash at Princeton, went from structuring catastrophe bonds at Goldman during Hurricane Katrina, to serving as Chief Scientist at NOAA, and is now Global Head of Climate Advisory at JPMorgan. She’s part mathematician, part climate scientist, part Wall Street insider – and the godmother of The Wall Street Skinny, the person who first convinced Jen to go into finance. This interview has been two and a half years in the making, and it’s easily one of the most full-circle, “how is this one person real?” conversations we’ve ever had.

We get into the math of predicting the future: how fluid dynamics and game theory show up in Black-Scholes, what “1-in-100 year events” actually mean over a 30-year mortgage, and why climate risk isn’t a political side quest but a massive driver of returns, insurance pricing, and portfolio construction. Sarah explains cat bonds in plain English, walks through physical vs. transition risk, and connects wildfires, hurricanes, nuclear, fusion, and geothermal to the way capital is being allocated right now. If you care about making or losing money over the next few decades, this is not optional listening.

We also talk mentorship, careers, and what it looks like to build a non-linear, insanely high-impact path across science, government, and Wall Street while raising a young family. Sarah shares how she decides when to leave a prestigious job, what she tells the next generation of math and science nerds curious about finance, and how she translates hardcore climate science for CEOs, investors, and ultra-high-net-worth clients. Even if you think “climate isn’t for me,” this episode will change how you think about risk, opportunity, and the future.

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