China: That Pacing Challenge and US Response

In this episode of the War Lab, we explore the “pacing challenge” posed by China’s rise and how it has reshaped U.S. defense strategy since the 2018 National Defense Strategy. Focusing on a Taiwan contingency, the Department of Defense has funneled resources toward countering a peer competitor, accepting greater risks elsewhere to modernize for high‑end conflict.

A core theme is first‑mover advantage in emerging technologies. From AI—dubbed “the new electricity”—to quantum computing and biotech, the race isn’t just commercial but existential. We trace China’s “Sputnik moments,” from AlphaGo’s 2017 victory to ChatGPT’s 2022 launch, and discuss Beijing’s state‑led AI push versus U.S. strengths in chip design, software ecosystems, and research integrity.

Data is another battleground. China’s surveillance apparatus and vast user base yield massive data quantities, but the U.S. retains an edge in data quality, diverse partnerships, and model ecosystems. Both nations face workforce and research‐integrity challenges: China leads in paper output but struggles with retractions and real‐world adoption.

In biotechnology, we examine how firms like BGI and WuXi AppTec have infiltrated global genomics and drug‐development pipelines—raising concerns over IP, data security, and dual‐use applications. Whether in agriculture or pharmaceuticals, biotech competition carries strategic stakes akin to traditional military power.

The episode also highlights China’s dominance in battery production. Fueled by over $230 billion in subsidies since 2009, companies such as CATL and BYD control critical battery‐component supply chains. Because lithium‑ion batteries underpin energy grids, electric vehicles, and even military systems, this industrial edge translates into potential strategic vulnerabilities for rivals.

Turning to naval power, the People’s Liberation Army Navy now fields over 370 battle‑force ships—and is set to surpass that by 2030. We unpack capabilities from Type 055 cruisers to DF‑21D “carrier killers,” plus China’s emerging carrier program and its anti‑access/area‑denial doctrine. Yet the PLAN’s lack of combat experience, limited overseas basing, and internal command frictions reveal enduring gaps.

Finally, we survey U.S. responses: distributed maritime operations, bolstered alliances (the Quad, AUKUS), and rapid fielding of unmanned vessels and advanced munitions like LRASM and maritime‐strike Tomahawk. Confronting shipbuilding bottlenecks, submarine readiness, and carrier survivability, the U.S. aims to deter Chinese aggression—especially within the “Davidson window” before 2027—through accelerated maintenance, asset redistribution, and prepositioned supplies.

By weaving together technology, economics, and strategy, this episode offers a comprehensive look at 21st‑century great‑power competition. It’s essential listening for anyone seeking to move beyond headlines and understand how civilian innovation and military power intersect in the U.S.–China rivalry.