November 11, 2024 • 6 mins
And we’re back for our second season! In this episode of the Weather Whys Podcast, host Ed Oswald delves into the fascinating history of Project Stormfury, the U.S. Government’s ambitious attempt to weaken hurricanes through cloud seeding in the 1960s and 70s. Ed explores this endeavor’s origins, experiments, and eventual downfall, shedding light on the ... Read more
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Ed Oswald (00:06):
Welcome to the Weather Whys Podcast.
I'm your host Ed Oswald.
This year, we're doingthings a bit differently.
We'll be highlighting content fromour YouTube channel in audio form.
All our shows are availableon YouTube, and we've provided
the link in the description.
We hope you enjoy today's episode.
(00:28):
Did you know that in the 1960s, the U.S.
Government tried to control hurricanesby seeding them with silver iodide?
It actually happened,and here's the story.
Rumors have swirled aboutgovernment programs controlling
the weather for decades.
Conspiracy theories claim hurricanescan be tamed or redirected at
will, including by prominentmedia figures and politicians.
(00:50):
But like any good conspiracy theory,it starts with a kernel of truth.
With weather modification in thenews for better or worse at the
moment, we wanted to dive deeperinto whether it's really possible.
This is the story of Project Stormfury,a real government program that tried
to modify the weather, not to controlit, but to weaken one of nature's
most destructive forces, hurricanes.
(01:13):
In the late 1950s andearly 1960s, the U.S.
Government faced an ongoing threat.
Hurricanes were increasing infrequency and their destructive power.
The idea of stopping these stormsbecame a dream for meteorologists
and the military alike.
The plan was based on cloud seeding,a technique that involves dispersing
substances, like silver iodideinto clouds to encourage rainfall.
(01:34):
The theory was that if silver iodidewere dropped into the storm's clouds,
it would disrupt the internal processesof a hurricane, causing it to weaken.
The goal wasn't to stop the stormcompletely, but to reduce its power.
Project Stormfury wasn't the firstattempt to alter hurricanes, though.
In fact, weather modificationefforts began even earlier.
(01:55):
In 1947, a joint project betweenGeneral Electric and the U S military
known as Project Cirrus saw the firstever hurricane seeding experiment.
In October of that year, a hurricaneoff the coast code named "king,"
was seeded with dry ice in anattempt to weaken the storm.
The experiment, thoughgroundbreaking, was controversial.
The hurricane, instead of weakening,unexpectedly changed direction
(02:17):
and made landfall in Georgia.
This led some to believe that the seedingcaused the storm to veer off its original
path, although that was never proven.
Following the Cirrus disaster,weather modification took a
back seat, at least publicly.
The department of defense and departmentof commerce would continue seeding
efforts through this period, mostnotably hurricane Esther in 1961.
(02:38):
The first drop of silver iodidein the eyewall was followed by a
drop the following day that missed.
A drop in strength of 10% wasobserved after the eyewall drop,
with no change the second day.
This was interpreted as a " success."
Esther would lead to the creationof Project Stormfury in 1962.
For 21 years, planes flew into thehearts of hurricanes, releasing
(02:59):
silver iodide crystals in an attemptto artificially stimulate the
formation of ice in the storms clouds.
The hope was that this would causethe storms energy to disperse
across a larger area, weakeningthe intense winds at its core.
Robert Simpson, the man behind theSafir Simpson scale, would even
serve as Stormfury's first director.
There were several guidelinesusing which storms to seed.
(03:21):
The hurricane had have a less than 10%chance of approaching inhabited land
within a day, it had to be a range of theseeding aircraft, And had to be a fairly
intense storm with a well-formed eye.
The concept was to make seedingcandidates rare, and that was the case.
The first candidate washurricane Beulah in August, 1963.
Mistakes were made on the first drops,and no change in strength was recorded.
(03:45):
However, on the second flight ,seedershit their targets, and the eyewall
fell apart and was replaced by a largerone, followed by a 20% drop in winds.
Further experiments were not conducteduntil hurricane Debbie in 1969.
This was perhaps theproject's best candidate.
A total of 13 planes would fly throughand seed the storm in a three-day period.
On the first day, wind speeds fell by 31%.
(04:08):
On the second day, windspeeds fell by 18%.
This would lead to calls formore research, but the criteria
made it extremely difficultto find candidate storms.
So the only evidence wasthe "success" of Debbie.
But that success wasn't whatresearchers thought it was.
Upon further investigation, scientistsrealized that changes in the hurricanes
weren't necessarily caused by the seeding.
(04:30):
Many of the storms that were studiedexhibited natural fluctuations
in strength that could not bereliably linked to the experiments.
What researchers may have stumbled uponwas the natural cycle of hurricanes now
known as the eyewall replacement cycle.
Remember that at the time of thisproject, hurricane hunters had only
been flying into these storms forless than two decades, and nowhere
near as frequently as they do now.
(04:52):
Weather satellites were onlybeginning to be launched.
There was just a lot that we didn'tknow about the weather, or could see.
By the early 1980s, it became clearthat the ambitious goals of Stormfury
were beyond our capabilities.
Hurricanes couldn't be reliablyweakened by human intervention.
After two decades of experiments,Stormfury was officially canceled
in 1983, although seeding flightshad stopped 12 years earlier.
(05:16):
While Project Stormfury was a failure,that hasn't stopped researchers from
cloud seeding on a smaller scale.
Here, there is evidence in studies that itcan increase the amount of precipitation,
but it's still not conclusive.
Cloud seeding is also controversial,as it involves changing natural
processes, and may cause too muchrain to fall, leading to flooding.
(05:36):
So, what can we learn from this?
For one, both the private sectorand the government has indeed
attempted to manipulate the weather,though not in the sinister ways
conspiracy theorists suggest.
If you still think it'spossible, consider this.
We're dealing with a stormtypically hundreds of miles across.
A plane is a small blip in thisimmense storm, and would be
incapable on its own spreadingenough material to make a difference.
(06:00):
The science of meteorology is farmore advanced today, allowing us to
explain what researchers thoughtthey were seeing then differently.
Sure, cloud seeding is real,but weather control is not.
The government can't controlthe weather, and Projects
Cirrus and Stormfury prove it.
But as climate change acceleratesand storms grow more intense, the
dream of weakening these powerfulnatural forces continues to captivate
(06:21):
scientists and governments alike.
Who knows what futurediscoveries may hold.
For now, we remain at themercy of the elements.
But one thing is certain (06:29):
we've tried.
Welcome to the Weather Whys Podcast.
I'm your host Ed Oswald.
This year, we're doingthings a bit differently.
We'll be highlighting content fromour YouTube channel in audio form.
All our shows are availableon YouTube, and we've provided
the link in the description.
We hope you enjoy today's episode.
(00:28):
Did you know that in the 1960s, the U.S.
Government tried to control hurricanesby seeding them with silver iodide?
It actually happened,and here's the story.
Rumors have swirled aboutgovernment programs controlling
the weather for decades.
Conspiracy theories claim hurricanescan be tamed or redirected at
will, including by prominentmedia figures and politicians.
(00:50):
But like any good conspiracy theory,it starts with a kernel of truth.
With weather modification in thenews for better or worse at the
moment, we wanted to dive deeperinto whether it's really possible.
This is the story of Project Stormfury,a real government program that tried
to modify the weather, not to controlit, but to weaken one of nature's
most destructive forces, hurricanes.
(01:13):
In the late 1950s andearly 1960s, the U.S.
Government faced an ongoing threat.
Hurricanes were increasing infrequency and their destructive power.
The idea of stopping these stormsbecame a dream for meteorologists
and the military alike.
The plan was based on cloud seeding,a technique that involves dispersing
substances, like silver iodideinto clouds to encourage rainfall.
(01:34):
The theory was that if silver iodidewere dropped into the storm's clouds,
it would disrupt the internal processesof a hurricane, causing it to weaken.
The goal wasn't to stop the stormcompletely, but to reduce its power.
Project Stormfury wasn't the firstattempt to alter hurricanes, though.
In fact, weather modificationefforts began even earlier.
(01:55):
In 1947, a joint project betweenGeneral Electric and the U S military
known as Project Cirrus saw the firstever hurricane seeding experiment.
In October of that year, a hurricaneoff the coast code named "king,"
was seeded with dry ice in anattempt to weaken the storm.
The experiment, thoughgroundbreaking, was controversial.
The hurricane, instead of weakening,unexpectedly changed direction
(02:17):
and made landfall in Georgia.
This led some to believe that the seedingcaused the storm to veer off its original
path, although that was never proven.
Following the Cirrus disaster,weather modification took a
back seat, at least publicly.
The department of defense and departmentof commerce would continue seeding
efforts through this period, mostnotably hurricane Esther in 1961.
(02:38):
The first drop of silver iodidein the eyewall was followed by a
drop the following day that missed.
A drop in strength of 10% wasobserved after the eyewall drop,
with no change the second day.
This was interpreted as a " success."
Esther would lead to the creationof Project Stormfury in 1962.
For 21 years, planes flew into thehearts of hurricanes, releasing
(02:59):
silver iodide crystals in an attemptto artificially stimulate the
formation of ice in the storms clouds.
The hope was that this would causethe storms energy to disperse
across a larger area, weakeningthe intense winds at its core.
Robert Simpson, the man behind theSafir Simpson scale, would even
serve as Stormfury's first director.
There were several guidelinesusing which storms to seed.
(03:21):
The hurricane had have a less than 10%chance of approaching inhabited land
within a day, it had to be a range of theseeding aircraft, And had to be a fairly
intense storm with a well-formed eye.
The concept was to make seedingcandidates rare, and that was the case.
The first candidate washurricane Beulah in August, 1963.
Mistakes were made on the first drops,and no change in strength was recorded.
(03:45):
However, on the second flight ,seedershit their targets, and the eyewall
fell apart and was replaced by a largerone, followed by a 20% drop in winds.
Further experiments were not conducteduntil hurricane Debbie in 1969.
This was perhaps theproject's best candidate.
A total of 13 planes would fly throughand seed the storm in a three-day period.
On the first day, wind speeds fell by 31%.
(04:08):
On the second day, windspeeds fell by 18%.
This would lead to calls formore research, but the criteria
made it extremely difficultto find candidate storms.
So the only evidence wasthe "success" of Debbie.
But that success wasn't whatresearchers thought it was.
Upon further investigation, scientistsrealized that changes in the hurricanes
weren't necessarily caused by the seeding.
(04:30):
Many of the storms that were studiedexhibited natural fluctuations
in strength that could not bereliably linked to the experiments.
What researchers may have stumbled uponwas the natural cycle of hurricanes now
known as the eyewall replacement cycle.
Remember that at the time of thisproject, hurricane hunters had only
been flying into these storms forless than two decades, and nowhere
near as frequently as they do now.
(04:52):
Weather satellites were onlybeginning to be launched.
There was just a lot that we didn'tknow about the weather, or could see.
By the early 1980s, it became clearthat the ambitious goals of Stormfury
were beyond our capabilities.
Hurricanes couldn't be reliablyweakened by human intervention.
After two decades of experiments,Stormfury was officially canceled
in 1983, although seeding flightshad stopped 12 years earlier.
(05:16):
While Project Stormfury was a failure,that hasn't stopped researchers from
cloud seeding on a smaller scale.
Here, there is evidence in studies that itcan increase the amount of precipitation,
but it's still not conclusive.
Cloud seeding is also controversial,as it involves changing natural
processes, and may cause too muchrain to fall, leading to flooding.
(05:36):
So, what can we learn from this?
For one, both the private sectorand the government has indeed
attempted to manipulate the weather,though not in the sinister ways
conspiracy theorists suggest.
If you still think it'spossible, consider this.
We're dealing with a stormtypically hundreds of miles across.
A plane is a small blip in thisimmense storm, and would be
incapable on its own spreadingenough material to make a difference.
(06:00):
The science of meteorology is farmore advanced today, allowing us to
explain what researchers thoughtthey were seeing then differently.
Sure, cloud seeding is real,but weather control is not.
The government can't controlthe weather, and Projects
Cirrus and Stormfury prove it.
But as climate change acceleratesand storms grow more intense, the
dream of weakening these powerfulnatural forces continues to captivate
(06:21):
scientists and governments alike.
Who knows what futurediscoveries may hold.
For now, we remain at themercy of the elements.
But one thing is certain (06:29):
we've tried.
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