December 12, 2025 • 37 mins
In this week's episode, David Zarling and Ian McMillan discuss if we are seeing rotation out of tech and growth areas of the market into value and small cap focused areas. They also discuss international areas that are holding up well, bitcoin, poor performance from the consumer staples sector, precious metals, and materials.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
david_1_12-12-2025_1146 (00:27):
Welcome back to the Weekly Trend
Podcast.
Today is Friday December 12th,2025 s and P 500, currently
sitting at 68 39.
I'm David Zarling.
I'm here with Ian McMillan.
Can't believe the year isalmost over
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (00:41):
We are almost over.
We got like two weeks.
david_1_12-12-2025_11461 (00:44):
crazy.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (00:44):
Two weeks, closer to three, but
yeah, that's that.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (00:48):
You got your Christmas shopping done
Or are you canceling Christmas?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (00:53):
whew.
After a day like today,sometimes, I don't know, man.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (00:58):
Okay.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (00:58):
okay.
It happens.
It happens.
Do I have no.
I need to get on that thisweekend.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (01:05):
All right.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (01:06):
I have some, I have some stuff.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (01:08):
I have confidence in you.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (01:10):
But probably, probably not where I
should be at this point in thegame.
It's okay.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (01:16):
I feel like it's like that every
year.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (01:18):
You can always pay for expedited
shipping.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (01:20):
True story.
Just get it faster from Amazon.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (01:24):
Yeah.
They're implementing 30 dayshipping or
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (01:28):
Hmm.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (01:28):
minute shipping.
I guess 30 day shippingwouldn't be too much of a.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (01:32):
I was gonna say I was, I was gonna
say, what, what kind of pressrelease is this?
Amazon do introduce 30 dayshipping.
Well, I don't know if thatworks
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (01:43):
not not helping their stock price.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (01:47):
when we're sitting, you know, when
you look at the s and p 500.
We're just a little bit below.
Last week's close during theweek.
This week we had been to newhighs from a really near term
timeframe.
Strong pullback today, but oneday doesn't make a trend.
(02:07):
What are you seeing out there?
Like what are some, some thingswe want to touch base on for
our listeners this week?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (02:14):
Yeah.
So kind of a weird weekoverall.
I mean, we're in a range.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (02:19):
And that's what I love about markets
is they're markets and I getalong 'cause we're normally
weird.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (02:25):
That's I'm glad that you found a friend
in the markets.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (02:29):
Yep.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (02:30):
always my friend.
I mean, sometimes a lotfriendlier to small caps.
Don't say that too much on thispodcast, but gotta give credit
where credit is due.
They were the first all timehighs.
They've held up pretty well.
(02:50):
Everything kind of getting hittoday, but small caps and on the
flip side the weakness thisweek for sure, I would say over
the last couple weeks.
But, you know, the growth tech,all that type of stuff.
Struggles.
It's hard for me to say thatit's over from a outperformance
(03:13):
standpoint, but could be.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (03:17):
Well, I do.
I do think it's interesting.
You know, you got industrial.
Is making new all time highs,financials, making new all time
highs, even European financials,making new all time highs.
You mentioned small caps, goldmaking new all time highs.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (03:33):
Silver,
david_1_12-12-2025_1146 (03:34):
Silver,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (03:36):
not Bitcoin.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (03:37):
not Bitcoin.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (03:39):
Still struggling.
david_1_12-12-2025_11 (03:40):
Emphatic, no on that.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (03:42):
Also range bound.
I think it looks pretty weak.
Looks kinda like we're settingup for another leg down, but
we'll see.
I still will be fascinating ifthat continues to fall.
I think it'll be fascinating.
I hope, I hope we're not letdown.
I hope the headlines are juicy.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (03:59):
Oh, can you imagine the narrative if
we,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (04:01):
if we find out Bitcoin was in the
Epstein files?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (04:04):
Ooh, that's crazy.
Well, okay, so,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (04:07):
it'll be something like I don't know.
I don't know what they'll comeup with.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (04:12):
so as a technician, if this
countertrend slash consolidationfrom November to now is a flag,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (04:23):
or?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (04:24):
a Bitcoin,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (04:26):
Okay.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (04:27):
if that's a flag.
In technical terms, we'remeasuring to 60,000,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (04:33):
Yeah, I think you could do that.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (04:36):
which would be a a 50% correction.
And the Bitcoin maxes would belike, yeah, I mean that's pretty
normal.
Like we, we have all these 50%corrections,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (04:46):
I am sure they'll be pretty chill
about it.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (04:49):
you know, who are you?
You got paper hands.
Are you weak?
Can't hold on to Bitcoin for50% correction.
Now there's some, there's sometruth in that, but I don't know
why we gotta take that risk,especially if we're below the
volume weighted average pricesince August of 2024, which is a
huge level, a major low, andthat volume weighted average
(05:10):
price is 92,900.
I don't know why
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (05:14):
Yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (05:14):
you need, you feel the need to be
involved in that, below thatlevel.
I'm with you.
I think the narrative would getrelatively loud if you're down
at 50 to 60,000 on Bitcoin.
Especially considering whatprecious metals are doing,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (05:30):
Yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_1146 (05:31):
you're, you're, you're an idiot if
store of value is gold.
But then you look at, you lookat Bitcoin versus, or gold
versus Bitcoin, and it's.
It's looking pretty good.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (05:43):
It is gold versus Bitcoin.
I mean, you definitelywouldn't, you know, as of right
now, you wouldn't wanna continueto be long gold, but if you're
long gold, then you shouldactually be long silver.
Based on that chart, you can't,it doesn't, you can't own gold.
It is outperforming looks good.
But then if you're gonna ownsilver, then maybe according to
(06:07):
the charts, you should be, youshould own silver minors.
And if you're gonna own silverminors, maybe you should name
Junior Silver Miners.
I see there's so many, so manytiers.
You can go, you can go down inthe route of strength playbook.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (06:20):
Yeah.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (06:20):
really fascinating.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (06:22):
Yeah.
I like the way you're talking.
You're just saying on the riskspec risk spectrum.
If you're gonna see silver dowell, if you're gonna see
precious metals do well,silver's outperforming gold.
If you're gonna see thatcontinue, you see silver miners
outperform silver.
And if that's gonna continue,silver, junior silver miners
versus regular silver minersoutperform, perform.
(06:43):
Is that what you're saying?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (06:45):
Yeah.
Yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (06:47):
It's good.
We got Materials overall, whichgold miners fit into.
I think it's fascinating to seeLindy, the largest weighting in
XLB at almost 15%.
If this is a false breakdown inLindy, right?
This level that it's atcurrently, which were the lows
(07:07):
from May 24, Jan 25.
April 25, if we reclaim thoselows, and that's a false
breakdown above, and we remainabove four 12, man, what does
that mean for materials overall?
It's fascinating.
And then you, and then youthrow copper in there.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (07:27):
Chopper looks good.
VGK Europe would be at all timeclosing monthly highs right
now.
So you got Europe continue togrind.
Its way higher.
You know who really stillstinks?
China know
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (07:43):
Yeah.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (07:44):
I don't do anything that chart.
This chart does not.
A relative chart has reallygotten weak as everything else
in the world has continued tomove higher.
And when I say everything elsein the world, I mean that's kind
of the case.
Not that much sarcasm there alot of stuff continue feel good
(08:06):
even at Brazil participating.
I got geeked outta that, butthat's okay.
It isn't a strong uptrend.
Rel, I mean the relative chart,I mean, maybe we're getting, so
is Q1 of this year, right?
Q1 this year when foreign hadgood quarter and then kind of, I
(08:26):
wouldn't say fizzled out.
mean they did give some of itback.
Kinda just kept up with the sand ps since August, but maybe,
maybe we're setting up foranother Q1 foreign equity
outperformance.
I now,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (08:43):
I mean, when you, when you see
things like Japans.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (08:46):
yeah.
Emerging markets I think lookbetter than developed.
So we'll see you think aboutenergy.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (08:54):
Ooh.
Well, I've got lots of energyfor this podcast, but I don't
think that's what you're talkingabout.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (09:00):
Yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (09:01):
Like X-L-X-L-E, like energy,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (09:04):
Yeah.
Like a fi like five hourenergy.
david_1_12-12-2025_11461 (09:06):
energy drinks.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (09:07):
Energy drinks.
Yeah.
XI mean.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (09:10):
I'm not opposed to energy drinks,
Ian, but when you look at XLEversus s and p,
ian_1_12-12-2025_1246 (09:16):
Terrible.
david_1_12-12-2025_114 (09:17):
terrible and it, what I think is
interesting about it is right,that was one of the top
outperformers coming out of theCOVID bottom into summer of 20,
summer, fall of 2022.
But it's been.
An opportunity cost since then,and I would argue in a pretty
controlled manner, like when youlook at XLE versus s and p or
(09:42):
energy versus s and p sincethen, pretty steadily falling
relative 200 day falling price.
Now, I guess if you were tojust say on an absolute basis,
there might be some pent upenergy here.
You know, if you're looking atsomething like XOM, the largest
(10:02):
waiting, I mean that's on thever
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (10:05):
Needs to do it.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (10:05):
we've been.
Yeah, it's been in a range.
Lemme put it this way.
I feel a lot of the same vibes.
And again, investing's notabout feelings, I'm just
reflecting what we're seeing inthe price charts as technicians.
That's what you do.
ExxonMobil.
This range from the beginningof 2023 on an absolute basis.
(10:26):
If that were to break to theupside, I feel a lot similar to
like JP Morgan is to therelative, relative s and p.
And so I think some clues wouldbe, 'cause I know we're gonna
get into, into talking aboutgrowth versus value.
If you're gonna see ExxonMobilbreakout to new absolute highs.
(10:47):
JP Morgan breakout to new, like20 some year relative highs.
Is that indicative of valuecarrying the ball forward versus
growth?
Time will tell, but it, youknow, ExxonMobil hasn't done
anything for three years.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (11:06):
Hmm.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (11:06):
If it does, I mean that to me.
I look at ExxonMobil and ifwe're gonna look at energy
broadly, ExxonMobil's gotta be,I need Pat Mahomes to be Pat
Mahomes.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (11:16):
Yeah, I definitely wanna see that
moving higher.
Another question yeah, I canpose it as a question.
do find it interesting staples,Naples,
david_1_12-12-2025_114 (11:27):
Staples.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (11:28):
what.
What do you think about thefact that Staples, yes.
Relative chart is doing, wewanted to, do I find it
interesting that Staples isStaples the only sector below?
It's absolute 200 A movingaverage?
Yes, I believe so.
I mean, materials was there onMonday, but.
(11:50):
Staples looks terrible.
No, we don't need it to lookamazing.
I just find it interesting.
I don't necessarily have a areason for that.
I don't have any theories.
I.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (12:04):
Well, I think right as technicians,
what you, if you want to see thebull market continue.
The, the best environmentalinformation would be staples
participating to the upside onan absolute basis, but
underperforming on a relativebasis.
And I think as long as XLP isholding 70, 75, 70 $6 from an
(12:32):
absolute basis, and you'reseeing it underperform, the s
and p.
That goes in the risk on bucketthat goes in the bull market
continuation bucket.
I agree that the absolutechart's kind of a mess, but as
long as above 75, 76,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (12:47):
WA that back.
Walmart looks great.
The rest of the top 10, I mean,look at Costco for Pete's sake.
This thing
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (12:56):
well,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (12:56):
to be,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (12:58):
it was the, it was a leader.
ian_1_12-12-2025_12461 (13:00):
Absolute beast for years and years and
years and years and well, Imean, you know, we kind of did
this, I guess this could beanother 2021 to 2023.
There's about an 18 monthperiod there where, and
consolidate quite nicelyactually.
So maybe we're
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (13:18):
Well,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (13:19):
again.
That'd be cool.
But I.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (13:22):
what I love about being a technician.
Is we can create anycombinations that we want to
analyze price and theinteraction of supply and demand
among market participants.
And if you look at Walmartversus Costco, I think you've
brought up a really good,interesting thing for this
podcast and that's, we've brokenthe rate of trend in Walmart
versus Costco that goes back to2004.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (13:45):
Wow.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (13:46):
I don't know what the narrative is
there.
Right.
'cause I, when I think ofCostco and Walmart, obviously I
think about consumers and Ithink about Sam's Club, you
know, our, I don't know what thenarrative is here, and I
actually don't really care.
It's just, you've brought up agood point that Costco used to
be a relative leader, and nowit's Walmart.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (14:06):
I can't even get cigarettes to go up.
Cigarette stock look terrible.
Well, they don't look terrible,but maybe, I mean, and maybe
that's all it is.
I mean, they're not, thesethings aren't at like all time
lows.
Like a Colgate, a Colgate poem,all of it's been in a drawdown
since last September.
think's up with that?
(14:26):
It's just very, very, no onewants to own.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (14:29):
I think it's risk on, I think, you
know, if you're, everything'sopportunity cost, right?
I've got a dollar sitting on mydesk, where do I put it to be a
good steward and get return onmy funds?
Is it palm olive or is itaerospace or is it
semiconductors or is it growthor is it value?
That's really how investorsneed to be thinking is rather
(14:52):
than narrative, is opportunitycost.
And I think your Walmart thingis just a fascinating, we didn't
even talk about this beforegetting on here, but look at
Walmart versus Amazon.
Is there a story coming forWalmart in the next.
Six to 18 months, right?
'cause markets are futurediscounting mechanism.
And I'm not on hererecommending you go buy Wal
Walmart.
I'm just saying when you lookat some of these relationships,
(15:15):
you sit here and go, huh,there's a potential Walmart
story here unfolding before us.
'cause now you're seeingWalmart outperform Costco and
Amazon.
That's an interesting.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (15:26):
Walmart and Amazon have had the same
return for the last eight years.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (15:32):
Would you have guessed that?
Would you have won that?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (15:34):
I would not have.
david_1_12-12-2025_11461 (15:36):
Right.
I think the, I think the other,the other relationship that I
also would've in the same boatthat you're talking about is
we're 0.7% away from small capsoutperforming.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (15:50):
I don't know
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (15:50):
I know,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (15:51):
what we do.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (15:52):
and I know you've got
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (15:53):
I mean,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (15:53):
you and
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (15:54):
do what
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (15:54):
you and Russell 2000 kind of beef
and I get it.
But wouldn't that be somethingif.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (16:00):
I'm ready, I'll do it.
And it's not like I've nevernot given him the resources to
go be something.
I'm there, I support him.
I
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (16:10):
Well and
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (16:11):
I buy my little 5% position and I say,
okay, I'm ready.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (16:15):
well,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (16:16):
And then
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (16:16):
and
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (16:16):
the one, he's the one that never.
Follows through on his part ofthe bargain.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (16:21):
so I think your skepticism is
warranted because only twice.
In the past 10 years has smallcaps outperformed the s and p on
an annual basis, and because ofthat on a relative basis,
again, opportunity cost negative44%, negative 44% versus s and
(16:45):
p.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (16:46):
but then like if you look, so if you
zoom out all the way to likeIWM versus S and P.
S-P-S-P-I, WM versus SPX couldbe the same for I-I-W-M-S-P-Y.
Oops.
Lemme see.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (17:01):
I'm zoomed out.
I'm out.
I'm ready.
I'm looking at, I'm looking,I'm actually looking.
Can you believe this?
I'm looking at annual, annualcandles.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (17:09):
Annual candles.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (17:11):
12 month candles, and only twice in
the last 10 years has IWMoutperformed the s and p 500.
And then the, the full-timeeffect of that is a 44%
drawdown.
Like if you've been invested insmall caps, you've given up 40%
of gains versus s and p.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (17:32):
It's tough.
I dunno, this could be it.
When I look at a long termcharm, I feel long term chart.
I do feel, I don't know, thiscould also, I mean, are you
gonna get a a v bottom off of a
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (17:45):
A 10 year correction.
Yeah.
I.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (17:47):
Yeah.
Even.
I mean, but this is also where,the.com bubble here, 2000,
early 2000.
We'll have
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (17:59):
So yeah, we'll see.
We, we'll, and that's thebeauty of studying price and
being Beijing statisticians, isyou wait for the new information
to come in.
But I, I think the fact thatyou've got materials.
Doing well, especially when youlook at miners, industrials,
new all time highs, financials,new, all time highs, which
(18:20):
includes American Express,Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, new
all time highs, broker dealers,new all time highs, insurance,
heck, even European financials,new, all time highs.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (18:32):
Jets
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (18:34):
Jets Airlines, you know, we talked
about that last week.
They, they followed throughthis rule.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (18:38):
looking good.
Let's the transports end upholding up.
I think we were talking aboutthat.
Yeah.
I mean, yeah, they're IYT is.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (18:46):
Looks good.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (18:48):
As long as it's above 75 bucks.
I guess you're pretty good
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (18:51):
You know, I,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (18:52):
on a pretty red day.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (18:54):
I think.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (18:54):
about cruise lines.
I don't looked at cruise linesin a while.
Not too hot.
They
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (19:00):
Are you,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (19:00):
in the year.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (19:01):
you ever done a cruise?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (19:03):
I have.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (19:04):
I've never done one.
I've never done one.
I, I don't know how I feelabout it.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (19:07):
I've done about, I don't know, least
10.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (19:12):
Wow.
So then you like 'em.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (19:14):
Well, I mean, only one was my choice to
go on.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (19:19):
You held hostage.
Wait, you, you held hostage onthe other.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (19:22):
No.
Yes, I did like that.
Oh my God.
I'm gonna get a text about thisfrom my parents.
Yes, I did enjoy them.
But yeah, every spring break wewent on a cruise growing up.
This was like late nineties,early, not like, you know, this
is not, I'm not going onnowadays.
We don't need to get on thattopic.
You know, that's a prettycommon v Those videos tend to
(19:45):
float around the, the internet,I'm talking about like late
nineties.
Early two thousands.
Peak America cruises.
Yeah, they were pretty cool.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (19:55):
Okay.
That's awesome.
I know Nana's listening.
I know she's.
Nana, I'm sorry if I caused anywedge between you and your son.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (20:03):
you're killing my inheritance right
now, so
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (20:06):
Well, I, I, I guess, I don't know.
I, so, so I gotta confess.
I also had never been to Disneybefore, and this was like, I
don't know, seven years ago.
I was a skeptic.
Went there.
Amazing.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (20:20):
You
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (20:20):
Now, yeah, now I don't know what
they're like.
I would, I'd be definitely beopen to it.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (20:26):
Okay.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (20:27):
My kids are older now,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (20:29):
What if your kids were
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (20:30):
but
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (20:30):
that you
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (20:31):
Yes.
Yeah, I would, I would, I wouldtry it now.
I mean, the stock chart's gotme sketched.
I mean, I'd be like, huh, Iwonder what's going on there.
But
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (20:39):
Do you don't, you don't buy products
from companies whose charts areon a downtrend.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (20:44):
yeah, I do not get the COVID shot.
We'll, not,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (20:47):
What
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (20:47):
do it.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (20:48):
what if that was a, a belief that
people had before they boughtyour product?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (20:53):
Look at the stock.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (20:54):
is below 200 day, Hmm.
Can't do it.
david_1_12-12-2025_1146 (20:57):
Mm-hmm.
I mean, Moderna and Pfizer
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (21:01):
Imagine
david_1_12-12-2025_ (21:01):
themselves.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (21:02):
Yeah, Starbucks is below 200 day.
Imagine all the women thatwould be, and men, I, I'm not
trying to be a sexist Yes, mendrink Starbucks.
I'm just saying their targetmarket is women.
But yeah, below 200 day youcan't get your coffee
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (21:17):
Yeah.
Might be a thing.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (21:19):
and then you wanna go to the local
small business coffee.
Well, they don't have a stock,I'd have to say, can you ask
them for a stock chart?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (21:26):
Could you show me your price chart
please?
It's like the inverse of what,I can't remember who, what,
which major investor was likethat.
You should invest in thingsthat you know you own.
I think you should invest inthe charts that you own.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (21:39):
Yeah,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (21:40):
Like, invest in the things that, you
know, the charts that, you know,invest in those, the products
that, you know, I'm not sure.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (21:46):
what am I gonna do with semiconductors,
Dave?
Am I
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (21:49):
What are we gonna,
ian_1_12-12-2025_ (21:50):
semiconductor chips and stock 'em in my
storage?
don't know, Kate, Dave said Ishould buy these.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (21:58):
yeah.
Why, why is our garage a datacenter?
Why, why do we have so manyblackwells in here?
Now if your wife knows what aBlackwell is, I'm, she needs,
she needs a better Christmaspresent.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (22:09):
I don't think she does.
david_1_12-12-2025_11461 (22:10):
That's fair.
But I, in a roundabout way, Idunno how we got here.
I would be open to trying acruise.
'cause I've never done one, sohow can I have an opinion?
But I've always thought tomyself a big city.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (22:22):
it's so human.
You, you're not human if youdon't have opinions on things
that you've never tried.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (22:28):
Oh, I should have an opinion about
everything.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (22:31):
Oh, yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_1146 (22:32):
There's only correct opinions in their
mind.
I just never been like, ohyeah, I'm super stoked to be on
a floating city in the middle ofthe water
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (22:41):
I mean,
david_1_12-12-2025_114 (22:41):
captive.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (22:41):
dude.
I mean, they are cool.
I mean, yeah, like my, mymemories of cruises are pretty
cool.
Pretty chill.
Especially as a kid.
There's so much kid stuff to doand other kids to play with.
Like, I don't know if your kidsnow would enjoy it, like teens.
I mean, yeah, there's like teenstuff to do.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (23:01):
I mean, because if you didn't have
like the water slides.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (23:05):
You do
david_1_12-12-2025_114 (23:06):
buffets.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (23:07):
Do the excursions
david_1_12-12-2025_1146 (23:08):
There's an excursion on a cruise boat.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (23:11):
well, yeah, that's what you, when you
ski at the ports, that's,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (23:15):
At the port,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (23:16):
yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (23:17):
but it's the in between part that
bothers me.
It's the in between.
Like I'm basically, I'mbasically on a.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (23:21):
you get the you get the alcohol card.
So unlimited alcohol.
It used to be like 50 bucks.
I don't know.
It's probably insanelyexpensive now.
For the whole week.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (23:34):
So as a kid you had an alcohol card.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (23:36):
No, they, I had a Coke card.
I.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (23:38):
Oh, nice.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (23:40):
Yeah, unlimited Cherry Cokes, Shirley
Temples all week.
I mean, come on.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (23:45):
Done.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (23:46):
For like 25 bucks.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (23:48):
Now I know why you like cruises.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (23:50):
And then you get the alcohol card
and you just chill.
Plus there's like freeentertainment.
There's like rated R entercomedians and stuff.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (23:59):
Okay,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (23:59):
Yeah, I mean they, and then there's
like, there's lots of stuff,sports bars.
Always games going on.
Like you can go play bingo oryou can,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (24:10):
so.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (24:10):
know.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (24:11):
What I say next is gonna be
completely unfair if it wasn'tfor the alcohol card, the
buffet,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (24:17):
Yeah.
The buffet,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (24:19):
the, and the distracting
entertainment.
I'm basically on a prison ship'cause I can't get off the thing
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (24:24):
No, you probably don't wanna get off.
Could get off.
I mean, you can get off.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (24:29):
But it might be a not great.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (24:31):
I wouldn't suggest it.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (24:32):
I'm kind of a busy body, so that
that's the part.
It, it's really about, it's notme.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (24:36):
Like do you get, or do you, are you the
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (24:38):
No,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (24:39):
has to wear like a patch?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (24:41):
no.
It's just like if I want to goto the, if I want to go to the
next town, I'm gonna, I'm gonnago to the next town.
You can't really go to the nexttown on a cruise ship.
So it's really, it's my fault.
It's not the cruise ships likethey're doing their job.
It's just me with the idea ofbeing on a floating city that I
can't leave.
It's kinda like I love to visitNew York, but if you told me I
couldn't leave, I don't know ifI'd be down with it, but I
(25:01):
suppose if New York stopped at acouple Caribbean beaches, I'm
cool.
So I, I probably should justtry it so I don't not be such a
pansy about it.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (25:10):
I'd just like to I'm gonna segue
into a shout.
If you're still listening tothe podcast, you haven't turned
this off yet.
I re like and I both reallyappreciate that We are, we're
about to get back on track,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (25:23):
Who we are.
Okay.
Speaking.
How about this segue?
Speaking of cruise ships, howabout Japan?
New all time highs?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (25:32):
Like in the.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (25:33):
Yeah,
ian_1_12-12-2025_12461 (25:34):
Actually dollar weight's probably even
looking better now.
Yeah.
Nik?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (25:38):
looks good.
European financials, new, alltime highs.
What do you think about LatinAmerica?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (25:44):
Mexico, I was
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (25:44):
Peru,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124 (25:45):
yesterday.
david_1_12-12-2025_1 (25:46):
Argentina, Mexico.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (25:48):
I mean Mexico, it's not at all time
highs, but it's at.
Like 11 year highs,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (25:54):
Well, Peru makes sense that it's
doing what it's doing.
'cause you know, it's heavilyweighted towards metals and
mining.
So I think
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (26:01):
no Venezuela funds.
Hmm.
david_1_12-12-2025_ (26:04):
interesting
ian_1_12-12-2025_12461 (26:05):
Probably would be in a downtrend.
david_1_12-12-2025_114 (26:07):
probably
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (26:08):
No.
El Salvador funds.
Yes.
There's gotta be.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (26:13):
I'm not seeing any.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (26:14):
Wow.
What about Argentina?
Because that got hit and thenpopped back up.
Yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (26:20):
Yeah, I think, I think Argentina, you
know, near all time highs on arelative basis continues to, to
hold up pretty good at a prettyimportant level.
We had this island reversalback in September.
I think that's significant.
Peru, Chile.
You mentioned Mexico Brazilkind of setting up here.
(26:43):
Not too chef.
Yeah.
It made me sound like I knewwhat I was talking about.
Brazil, Chile.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (26:50):
you might be 10% Portuguese.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (26:53):
Well, it's my red hair.
Everybody knows this.
You mentioned small caps.
I find the mega cap versusmicro cap chart.
Interesting.
So MGC
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (27:05):
Yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (27:06):
mega caps versus micro caps.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (27:08):
Doesn't that look like that trend's
over for a bit?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (27:11):
Yeah.
I mean, could you, could yousee a 2026 where it's value in
small?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (27:17):
Okay.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (27:18):
I could.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (27:19):
So is this gonna be under performance
or are we still so waited tolike, oh God, if tech goes down,
it all goes down.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (27:28):
Yeah.
Right.
Your basic question is if, iftech is going down, is the bull
market over or is it rotationinto value and small?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (27:37):
On a
david_1_12-12-2025_11461 (27:38):
That's a, that's a great question and
my answer,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (27:41):
Basis then.
Yeah.
That's probably not great.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (27:44):
my answer is, you know, if you've
got small caps going out to newall time highs.
That's probably rotation.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (27:50):
RSPs looking?
RSPs already at all time highs?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (27:53):
Yeah, and that's before the s and p
500.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (27:55):
Yeah.
Yeah.
I mean, how.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (27:58):
Even E-E-Q-A-L, equal weight.
Russell 1000 new all timehighs.
So rotation.
Rotation to the rest of theteam rather than Pat Mahome.
It's the other part of the teamthat's performing.
That's not a bad thing.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (28:12):
New York stock, NY se composite time
highs.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (28:16):
Dow Jones All time highs.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (28:18):
Wow.
S and p and nasdaq.
Let's do it.
Let's have a whole 12 monthsof.
david_1_12-12- (28:23):
Differentiation.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (28:24):
It'd be cool.
It'd be cool.
david_1_12-12-2025_114 (28:27):
Alright, let's talk bonds and interest
rates.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (28:30):
Oh man.
Well, I keep hearing about arate cut.
Did we get a rate cutyesterday?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (28:36):
Yeah, it was one of these days.
There was a day where Jerry wastalking.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124 (28:39):
Wednesday.
So that's it.
It's Friday, Wednesday.
Rate cut.
We've had like three of 'em, Ithink since September and our
rates
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (28:51):
20
ian_1_12-12-2025_12461 (28:52):
straight up.
Well, not straight up, but theyare significantly higher than,
I'll say this.
We're back to where we were inearly September with 30 year
treasury yields.
david_1_12-12-2025_11461 (29:02):
right.
So the, the bond market iszigging while Jerry is zagging.
It's gonna be interesting tosee how that plays out.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (29:09):
TLT still getting hit, so.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (29:13):
And I would say junk bonds versus
intermediate bonds, stillholding up local currency,
emerging market bonds, doingwell, that's risk on even
convertible bonds.
So these are risk on for fixedincome and all the things that
we mentioned, reaching new alltime highs.
So just because tech, you know,doesn't carry the bag, carry
(29:35):
the ball here, doesn't mean theother things aren't doing well.
And we still have the dollarbelow a hundred and a 200 day
moving average.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (29:43):
Yeah, dollar definitely.
Falling, doing what you wouldwant it to do, I guess.
Down to 98 96, I assume.
And there's not much between 96and 89.
So if we were to get throughthat yeah, so I guess it's so
(30:03):
far.
We're gonna chalk this up tofalling dollars.
Good for stocks.
I think that's kind of what,the environment we've been in
since January.
I mean, dollar, dollar indexpeaked early January, up around
one 10.
Like I said, we're sittingaround 98, got down to 96.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (30:26):
It would not surprise me
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (30:28):
far, I guess we're saying this is good
for stocks subject to change atany moment though.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (30:34):
when I think, you know, when you look
at.
Something like vu.
So international stocks minusUS stocks versus US stocks.
The fact that it's the, thefact that it's holding up this
well, I mean, if you were tosee, you know, international and
value and small outperform in2026, this is what it would
(30:59):
start to look like.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (31:01):
Yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (31:02):
So in 2023, a little over 25% of
stocks in the s and p 500outperformed the index.
In 2024, it was about 30% in2025, we're currently at about
37% of.
Stocks within the s and p 500outperforming the index.
(31:22):
So think about that.
That means 63% of stocks in thes and p are underperforming the
index.
Do we finally get a year, like2021 or 2020 where the majority
of stocks are outperforming theindex, which opens up all sorts
of thesis Then that.
(31:42):
This is actually the start of anew bull leg rather than the
end of a bull leg, if you seethat.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (31:48):
That'd be sweet.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (31:49):
But if you're, if you're gonna see
small caps outperform, if you'regonna see international
perform, that's indicative ofthe first leg of a bull market,
rather than late time will tell.
And it probably would beimportant for me.
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ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (33:01):
I don't just, yeah.
Interesting week.
Overall, average stocks, theaverage stock continues to,
let's say, do better under thesurface.
Yeah.
I mean, and Russell, Russell,at all time highs.
Not a lot to be too spookedabout right now.
(33:23):
Which Bos?
Well, I mean, I think that kindof puts the right weird, I
don't know.
Breath was a little weird therefor a couple months.
As has been the case, nothingreally came of that as far as
major drawdown in the market.
I.
Say that's been, I mean,R-S-P-I-W-M, Dow NYA, hard to be
(33:47):
bearish.
Yeah.
What's that look like?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (33:51):
Yeah, we got, we got column X's
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (33:53):
Okay.
david_1_12-12-2025_ (33:54):
affirmation of breadth expansion
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (33:58):
What, like what is the number?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (34:01):
in the mid fifties.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (34:02):
Okay,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (34:03):
So middle of the field heading,
hopefully heading towards theend zone if you want stocks to
go up.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (34:08):
but not too far.
Not too far.
We don't wanna get to like 82.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (34:13):
Yeah, we don't get eighties and
nineties, eighties and nineties.
Probably exhausted the, thebreath expansion.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (34:19):
got a long way to go.
What you're saying.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (34:21):
I do.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (34:22):
like we're getting X, we're back in X
and we're at 73.
david_1_12-12-2025_11461 (34:27):
Right.
And that's, that's the thing,like a lot of these things that
we just talked about today inthis episode is it kind of
points to early stages ofanother leg, but that's kind of
hard to believe, right?
That's probably the, not theconsensus out there.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (34:45):
That would be tough.
So we're at what we're gonnago, how many straight years of
20% returns will this be?
Let's say if we close today,obviously now you said earlier
we're 16% on the year
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (34:57):
For s and p.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (34:58):
for s and p pre S, so probably not
gonna get, I guess so s and ptotal returns gonna be like 18.
I mean, maybe you could get twomore percent in 18 days.
I don't know, but another goodyear so far, so I, I still hear
a lot of, I still hear a lot of,I can't, you know, like when
(35:18):
are we gonna get a bear market?
I can't believe we haven'tgotten a bear market still a
lot.
I still think that there's alot, the bear, like a bear
market has to be 2008.
I think that is a really bigmantra amongst people my age.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (35:34):
Yeah.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (35:34):
has to be, 'cause that's what a lot of
them, I mean, I remember it too.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (35:39):
How quickly, how quickly people
forget that it was
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (35:43):
Yeah.
I
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (35:44):
2022 and 23.
We had a almost 30% correction.
And even earlier this year, youknow, mar people forget that
March and April was a minus 20%correction.
ian_1_12-12-2025_1246 (35:54):
intraday.
I think we got, I'm pretty surewe got the 20.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (35:58):
Yep.
So we've had, we've had twobear markets.
In the last five years.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (36:04):
Well, COVID COVID, if you include
COVID three.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (36:09):
And if you include 2018, that's
four.
That's four.
That's four in seven years.
Four minus 20 plus percentcorrections in four years.
Definitely not the easiestmarkets, but I don't think we
get to sit here and say, well,when's the bear market gonna
happen?
We'll do even study charts.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (36:26):
Yeah, I
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (36:28):
Do you even use price or just using
your
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (36:31):
do.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (36:31):
brain and watching
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (36:32):
Do you
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (36:33):
CNBC and yeah, do you even use a
chart?
So wrap it.
We're, you know, we're gonnahave another two, two weeks, a
little bit more than that forthe end of the year here.
We'll see how we end up, but.
Even though tech's, you know, Iguess you could say that's a
shot across the warning bowel.
Like if tech's not gonna holdup, but if we're gonna rotate
(36:54):
into industrial's, financials,local emerging market bond debt,
I think that's prettyindicative of risk on.
And so you gotta err on theside of the bull market
continuing.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (37:06):
I agree.
I.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (37:08):
Well, thanks for being on here again.
We'll be back again next week.
We ask everybody listening tothis to share it and give us a
high ranking on your platform ofchoice.
It's a great compliment to usand we appreciate it.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (37:17):
Have a great weekend everyone.
Welcome back to the Weekly Trend
Podcast.
Today is Friday December 12th,2025 s and P 500, currently
sitting at 68 39.
I'm David Zarling.
I'm here with Ian McMillan.
Can't believe the year isalmost over
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (00:41):
We are almost over.
We got like two weeks.
david_1_12-12-2025_11461 (00:44):
crazy.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (00:44):
Two weeks, closer to three, but
yeah, that's that.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (00:48):
You got your Christmas shopping done
Or are you canceling Christmas?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (00:53):
whew.
After a day like today,sometimes, I don't know, man.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (00:58):
Okay.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (00:58):
okay.
It happens.
It happens.
Do I have no.
I need to get on that thisweekend.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (01:05):
All right.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (01:06):
I have some, I have some stuff.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (01:08):
I have confidence in you.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (01:10):
But probably, probably not where I
should be at this point in thegame.
It's okay.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (01:16):
I feel like it's like that every
year.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (01:18):
You can always pay for expedited
shipping.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (01:20):
True story.
Just get it faster from Amazon.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (01:24):
Yeah.
They're implementing 30 dayshipping or
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (01:28):
Hmm.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (01:28):
minute shipping.
I guess 30 day shippingwouldn't be too much of a.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (01:32):
I was gonna say I was, I was gonna
say, what, what kind of pressrelease is this?
Amazon do introduce 30 dayshipping.
Well, I don't know if thatworks
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (01:43):
not not helping their stock price.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (01:47):
when we're sitting, you know, when
you look at the s and p 500.
We're just a little bit below.
Last week's close during theweek.
This week we had been to newhighs from a really near term
timeframe.
Strong pullback today, but oneday doesn't make a trend.
(02:07):
What are you seeing out there?
Like what are some, some thingswe want to touch base on for
our listeners this week?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (02:14):
Yeah.
So kind of a weird weekoverall.
I mean, we're in a range.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (02:19):
And that's what I love about markets
is they're markets and I getalong 'cause we're normally
weird.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (02:25):
That's I'm glad that you found a friend
in the markets.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (02:29):
Yep.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (02:30):
always my friend.
I mean, sometimes a lotfriendlier to small caps.
Don't say that too much on thispodcast, but gotta give credit
where credit is due.
They were the first all timehighs.
They've held up pretty well.
(02:50):
Everything kind of getting hittoday, but small caps and on the
flip side the weakness thisweek for sure, I would say over
the last couple weeks.
But, you know, the growth tech,all that type of stuff.
Struggles.
It's hard for me to say thatit's over from a outperformance
(03:13):
standpoint, but could be.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (03:17):
Well, I do.
I do think it's interesting.
You know, you got industrial.
Is making new all time highs,financials, making new all time
highs, even European financials,making new all time highs.
You mentioned small caps, goldmaking new all time highs.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (03:33):
Silver,
david_1_12-12-2025_1146 (03:34):
Silver,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (03:36):
not Bitcoin.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (03:37):
not Bitcoin.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (03:39):
Still struggling.
david_1_12-12-2025_11 (03:40):
Emphatic, no on that.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (03:42):
Also range bound.
I think it looks pretty weak.
Looks kinda like we're settingup for another leg down, but
we'll see.
I still will be fascinating ifthat continues to fall.
I think it'll be fascinating.
I hope, I hope we're not letdown.
I hope the headlines are juicy.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (03:59):
Oh, can you imagine the narrative if
we,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (04:01):
if we find out Bitcoin was in the
Epstein files?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (04:04):
Ooh, that's crazy.
Well, okay, so,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (04:07):
it'll be something like I don't know.
I don't know what they'll comeup with.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (04:12):
so as a technician, if this
countertrend slash consolidationfrom November to now is a flag,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (04:23):
or?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (04:24):
a Bitcoin,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (04:26):
Okay.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (04:27):
if that's a flag.
In technical terms, we'remeasuring to 60,000,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (04:33):
Yeah, I think you could do that.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (04:36):
which would be a a 50% correction.
And the Bitcoin maxes would belike, yeah, I mean that's pretty
normal.
Like we, we have all these 50%corrections,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (04:46):
I am sure they'll be pretty chill
about it.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (04:49):
you know, who are you?
You got paper hands.
Are you weak?
Can't hold on to Bitcoin for50% correction.
Now there's some, there's sometruth in that, but I don't know
why we gotta take that risk,especially if we're below the
volume weighted average pricesince August of 2024, which is a
huge level, a major low, andthat volume weighted average
(05:10):
price is 92,900.
I don't know why
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (05:14):
Yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (05:14):
you need, you feel the need to be
involved in that, below thatlevel.
I'm with you.
I think the narrative would getrelatively loud if you're down
at 50 to 60,000 on Bitcoin.
Especially considering whatprecious metals are doing,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (05:30):
Yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_1146 (05:31):
you're, you're, you're an idiot if
store of value is gold.
But then you look at, you lookat Bitcoin versus, or gold
versus Bitcoin, and it's.
It's looking pretty good.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (05:43):
It is gold versus Bitcoin.
I mean, you definitelywouldn't, you know, as of right
now, you wouldn't wanna continueto be long gold, but if you're
long gold, then you shouldactually be long silver.
Based on that chart, you can't,it doesn't, you can't own gold.
It is outperforming looks good.
But then if you're gonna ownsilver, then maybe according to
(06:07):
the charts, you should be, youshould own silver minors.
And if you're gonna own silverminors, maybe you should name
Junior Silver Miners.
I see there's so many, so manytiers.
You can go, you can go down inthe route of strength playbook.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (06:20):
Yeah.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (06:20):
really fascinating.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (06:22):
Yeah.
I like the way you're talking.
You're just saying on the riskspec risk spectrum.
If you're gonna see silver dowell, if you're gonna see
precious metals do well,silver's outperforming gold.
If you're gonna see thatcontinue, you see silver miners
outperform silver.
And if that's gonna continue,silver, junior silver miners
versus regular silver minersoutperform, perform.
(06:43):
Is that what you're saying?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (06:45):
Yeah.
Yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (06:47):
It's good.
We got Materials overall, whichgold miners fit into.
I think it's fascinating to seeLindy, the largest weighting in
XLB at almost 15%.
If this is a false breakdown inLindy, right?
This level that it's atcurrently, which were the lows
(07:07):
from May 24, Jan 25.
April 25, if we reclaim thoselows, and that's a false
breakdown above, and we remainabove four 12, man, what does
that mean for materials overall?
It's fascinating.
And then you, and then youthrow copper in there.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (07:27):
Chopper looks good.
VGK Europe would be at all timeclosing monthly highs right
now.
So you got Europe continue togrind.
Its way higher.
You know who really stillstinks?
China know
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (07:43):
Yeah.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (07:44):
I don't do anything that chart.
This chart does not.
A relative chart has reallygotten weak as everything else
in the world has continued tomove higher.
And when I say everything elsein the world, I mean that's kind
of the case.
Not that much sarcasm there alot of stuff continue feel good
(08:06):
even at Brazil participating.
I got geeked outta that, butthat's okay.
It isn't a strong uptrend.
Rel, I mean the relative chart,I mean, maybe we're getting, so
is Q1 of this year, right?
Q1 this year when foreign hadgood quarter and then kind of, I
(08:26):
wouldn't say fizzled out.
mean they did give some of itback.
Kinda just kept up with the sand ps since August, but maybe,
maybe we're setting up foranother Q1 foreign equity
outperformance.
I now,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (08:43):
I mean, when you, when you see
things like Japans.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (08:46):
yeah.
Emerging markets I think lookbetter than developed.
So we'll see you think aboutenergy.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (08:54):
Ooh.
Well, I've got lots of energyfor this podcast, but I don't
think that's what you're talkingabout.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (09:00):
Yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (09:01):
Like X-L-X-L-E, like energy,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (09:04):
Yeah.
Like a fi like five hourenergy.
david_1_12-12-2025_11461 (09:06):
energy drinks.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (09:07):
Energy drinks.
Yeah.
XI mean.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (09:10):
I'm not opposed to energy drinks,
Ian, but when you look at XLEversus s and p,
ian_1_12-12-2025_1246 (09:16):
Terrible.
david_1_12-12-2025_114 (09:17):
terrible and it, what I think is
interesting about it is right,that was one of the top
outperformers coming out of theCOVID bottom into summer of 20,
summer, fall of 2022.
But it's been.
An opportunity cost since then,and I would argue in a pretty
controlled manner, like when youlook at XLE versus s and p or
(09:42):
energy versus s and p sincethen, pretty steadily falling
relative 200 day falling price.
Now, I guess if you were tojust say on an absolute basis,
there might be some pent upenergy here.
You know, if you're looking atsomething like XOM, the largest
(10:02):
waiting, I mean that's on thever
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (10:05):
Needs to do it.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (10:05):
we've been.
Yeah, it's been in a range.
Lemme put it this way.
I feel a lot of the same vibes.
And again, investing's notabout feelings, I'm just
reflecting what we're seeing inthe price charts as technicians.
That's what you do.
ExxonMobil.
This range from the beginningof 2023 on an absolute basis.
(10:26):
If that were to break to theupside, I feel a lot similar to
like JP Morgan is to therelative, relative s and p.
And so I think some clues wouldbe, 'cause I know we're gonna
get into, into talking aboutgrowth versus value.
If you're gonna see ExxonMobilbreakout to new absolute highs.
(10:47):
JP Morgan breakout to new, like20 some year relative highs.
Is that indicative of valuecarrying the ball forward versus
growth?
Time will tell, but it, youknow, ExxonMobil hasn't done
anything for three years.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (11:06):
Hmm.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (11:06):
If it does, I mean that to me.
I look at ExxonMobil and ifwe're gonna look at energy
broadly, ExxonMobil's gotta be,I need Pat Mahomes to be Pat
Mahomes.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (11:16):
Yeah, I definitely wanna see that
moving higher.
Another question yeah, I canpose it as a question.
do find it interesting staples,Naples,
david_1_12-12-2025_114 (11:27):
Staples.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (11:28):
what.
What do you think about thefact that Staples, yes.
Relative chart is doing, wewanted to, do I find it
interesting that Staples isStaples the only sector below?
It's absolute 200 A movingaverage?
Yes, I believe so.
I mean, materials was there onMonday, but.
(11:50):
Staples looks terrible.
No, we don't need it to lookamazing.
I just find it interesting.
I don't necessarily have a areason for that.
I don't have any theories.
I.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (12:04):
Well, I think right as technicians,
what you, if you want to see thebull market continue.
The, the best environmentalinformation would be staples
participating to the upside onan absolute basis, but
underperforming on a relativebasis.
And I think as long as XLP isholding 70, 75, 70 $6 from an
(12:32):
absolute basis, and you'reseeing it underperform, the s
and p.
That goes in the risk on bucketthat goes in the bull market
continuation bucket.
I agree that the absolutechart's kind of a mess, but as
long as above 75, 76,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (12:47):
WA that back.
Walmart looks great.
The rest of the top 10, I mean,look at Costco for Pete's sake.
This thing
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (12:56):
well,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (12:56):
to be,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (12:58):
it was the, it was a leader.
ian_1_12-12-2025_12461 (13:00):
Absolute beast for years and years and
years and years and well, Imean, you know, we kind of did
this, I guess this could beanother 2021 to 2023.
There's about an 18 monthperiod there where, and
consolidate quite nicelyactually.
So maybe we're
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (13:18):
Well,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (13:19):
again.
That'd be cool.
But I.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (13:22):
what I love about being a technician.
Is we can create anycombinations that we want to
analyze price and theinteraction of supply and demand
among market participants.
And if you look at Walmartversus Costco, I think you've
brought up a really good,interesting thing for this
podcast and that's, we've brokenthe rate of trend in Walmart
versus Costco that goes back to2004.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (13:45):
Wow.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (13:46):
I don't know what the narrative is
there.
Right.
'cause I, when I think ofCostco and Walmart, obviously I
think about consumers and Ithink about Sam's Club, you
know, our, I don't know what thenarrative is here, and I
actually don't really care.
It's just, you've brought up agood point that Costco used to
be a relative leader, and nowit's Walmart.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (14:06):
I can't even get cigarettes to go up.
Cigarette stock look terrible.
Well, they don't look terrible,but maybe, I mean, and maybe
that's all it is.
I mean, they're not, thesethings aren't at like all time
lows.
Like a Colgate, a Colgate poem,all of it's been in a drawdown
since last September.
think's up with that?
(14:26):
It's just very, very, no onewants to own.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (14:29):
I think it's risk on, I think, you
know, if you're, everything'sopportunity cost, right?
I've got a dollar sitting on mydesk, where do I put it to be a
good steward and get return onmy funds?
Is it palm olive or is itaerospace or is it
semiconductors or is it growthor is it value?
That's really how investorsneed to be thinking is rather
(14:52):
than narrative, is opportunitycost.
And I think your Walmart thingis just a fascinating, we didn't
even talk about this beforegetting on here, but look at
Walmart versus Amazon.
Is there a story coming forWalmart in the next.
Six to 18 months, right?
'cause markets are futurediscounting mechanism.
And I'm not on hererecommending you go buy Wal
Walmart.
I'm just saying when you lookat some of these relationships,
(15:15):
you sit here and go, huh,there's a potential Walmart
story here unfolding before us.
'cause now you're seeingWalmart outperform Costco and
Amazon.
That's an interesting.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (15:26):
Walmart and Amazon have had the same
return for the last eight years.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (15:32):
Would you have guessed that?
Would you have won that?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (15:34):
I would not have.
david_1_12-12-2025_11461 (15:36):
Right.
I think the, I think the other,the other relationship that I
also would've in the same boatthat you're talking about is
we're 0.7% away from small capsoutperforming.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (15:50):
I don't know
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (15:50):
I know,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (15:51):
what we do.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (15:52):
and I know you've got
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (15:53):
I mean,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (15:53):
you and
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (15:54):
do what
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (15:54):
you and Russell 2000 kind of beef
and I get it.
But wouldn't that be somethingif.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (16:00):
I'm ready, I'll do it.
And it's not like I've nevernot given him the resources to
go be something.
I'm there, I support him.
I
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (16:10):
Well and
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (16:11):
I buy my little 5% position and I say,
okay, I'm ready.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (16:15):
well,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (16:16):
And then
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (16:16):
and
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (16:16):
the one, he's the one that never.
Follows through on his part ofthe bargain.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (16:21):
so I think your skepticism is
warranted because only twice.
In the past 10 years has smallcaps outperformed the s and p on
an annual basis, and because ofthat on a relative basis,
again, opportunity cost negative44%, negative 44% versus s and
(16:45):
p.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (16:46):
but then like if you look, so if you
zoom out all the way to likeIWM versus S and P.
S-P-S-P-I, WM versus SPX couldbe the same for I-I-W-M-S-P-Y.
Oops.
Lemme see.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (17:01):
I'm zoomed out.
I'm out.
I'm ready.
I'm looking at, I'm looking,I'm actually looking.
Can you believe this?
I'm looking at annual, annualcandles.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (17:09):
Annual candles.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (17:11):
12 month candles, and only twice in
the last 10 years has IWMoutperformed the s and p 500.
And then the, the full-timeeffect of that is a 44%
drawdown.
Like if you've been invested insmall caps, you've given up 40%
of gains versus s and p.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (17:32):
It's tough.
I dunno, this could be it.
When I look at a long termcharm, I feel long term chart.
I do feel, I don't know, thiscould also, I mean, are you
gonna get a a v bottom off of a
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (17:45):
A 10 year correction.
Yeah.
I.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (17:47):
Yeah.
Even.
I mean, but this is also where,the.com bubble here, 2000,
early 2000.
We'll have
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (17:59):
So yeah, we'll see.
We, we'll, and that's thebeauty of studying price and
being Beijing statisticians, isyou wait for the new information
to come in.
But I, I think the fact thatyou've got materials.
Doing well, especially when youlook at miners, industrials,
new all time highs, financials,new, all time highs, which
(18:20):
includes American Express,Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, new
all time highs, broker dealers,new all time highs, insurance,
heck, even European financials,new, all time highs.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (18:32):
Jets
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (18:34):
Jets Airlines, you know, we talked
about that last week.
They, they followed throughthis rule.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (18:38):
looking good.
Let's the transports end upholding up.
I think we were talking aboutthat.
Yeah.
I mean, yeah, they're IYT is.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (18:46):
Looks good.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (18:48):
As long as it's above 75 bucks.
I guess you're pretty good
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (18:51):
You know, I,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (18:52):
on a pretty red day.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (18:54):
I think.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (18:54):
about cruise lines.
I don't looked at cruise linesin a while.
Not too hot.
They
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (19:00):
Are you,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (19:00):
in the year.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (19:01):
you ever done a cruise?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (19:03):
I have.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (19:04):
I've never done one.
I've never done one.
I, I don't know how I feelabout it.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (19:07):
I've done about, I don't know, least
10.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (19:12):
Wow.
So then you like 'em.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (19:14):
Well, I mean, only one was my choice to
go on.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (19:19):
You held hostage.
Wait, you, you held hostage onthe other.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (19:22):
No.
Yes, I did like that.
Oh my God.
I'm gonna get a text about thisfrom my parents.
Yes, I did enjoy them.
But yeah, every spring break wewent on a cruise growing up.
This was like late nineties,early, not like, you know, this
is not, I'm not going onnowadays.
We don't need to get on thattopic.
You know, that's a prettycommon v Those videos tend to
(19:45):
float around the, the internet,I'm talking about like late
nineties.
Early two thousands.
Peak America cruises.
Yeah, they were pretty cool.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (19:55):
Okay.
That's awesome.
I know Nana's listening.
I know she's.
Nana, I'm sorry if I caused anywedge between you and your son.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (20:03):
you're killing my inheritance right
now, so
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (20:06):
Well, I, I, I guess, I don't know.
I, so, so I gotta confess.
I also had never been to Disneybefore, and this was like, I
don't know, seven years ago.
I was a skeptic.
Went there.
Amazing.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (20:20):
You
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (20:20):
Now, yeah, now I don't know what
they're like.
I would, I'd be definitely beopen to it.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (20:26):
Okay.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (20:27):
My kids are older now,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (20:29):
What if your kids were
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (20:30):
but
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (20:30):
that you
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (20:31):
Yes.
Yeah, I would, I would, I wouldtry it now.
I mean, the stock chart's gotme sketched.
I mean, I'd be like, huh, Iwonder what's going on there.
But
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (20:39):
Do you don't, you don't buy products
from companies whose charts areon a downtrend.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (20:44):
yeah, I do not get the COVID shot.
We'll, not,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (20:47):
What
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (20:47):
do it.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (20:48):
what if that was a, a belief that
people had before they boughtyour product?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (20:53):
Look at the stock.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (20:54):
is below 200 day, Hmm.
Can't do it.
david_1_12-12-2025_1146 (20:57):
Mm-hmm.
I mean, Moderna and Pfizer
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (21:01):
Imagine
david_1_12-12-2025_ (21:01):
themselves.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (21:02):
Yeah, Starbucks is below 200 day.
Imagine all the women thatwould be, and men, I, I'm not
trying to be a sexist Yes, mendrink Starbucks.
I'm just saying their targetmarket is women.
But yeah, below 200 day youcan't get your coffee
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (21:17):
Yeah.
Might be a thing.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (21:19):
and then you wanna go to the local
small business coffee.
Well, they don't have a stock,I'd have to say, can you ask
them for a stock chart?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (21:26):
Could you show me your price chart
please?
It's like the inverse of what,I can't remember who, what,
which major investor was likethat.
You should invest in thingsthat you know you own.
I think you should invest inthe charts that you own.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (21:39):
Yeah,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (21:40):
Like, invest in the things that, you
know, the charts that, you know,invest in those, the products
that, you know, I'm not sure.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (21:46):
what am I gonna do with semiconductors,
Dave?
Am I
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (21:49):
What are we gonna,
ian_1_12-12-2025_ (21:50):
semiconductor chips and stock 'em in my
storage?
don't know, Kate, Dave said Ishould buy these.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (21:58):
yeah.
Why, why is our garage a datacenter?
Why, why do we have so manyblackwells in here?
Now if your wife knows what aBlackwell is, I'm, she needs,
she needs a better Christmaspresent.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (22:09):
I don't think she does.
david_1_12-12-2025_11461 (22:10):
That's fair.
But I, in a roundabout way, Idunno how we got here.
I would be open to trying acruise.
'cause I've never done one, sohow can I have an opinion?
But I've always thought tomyself a big city.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (22:22):
it's so human.
You, you're not human if youdon't have opinions on things
that you've never tried.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (22:28):
Oh, I should have an opinion about
everything.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (22:31):
Oh, yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_1146 (22:32):
There's only correct opinions in their
mind.
I just never been like, ohyeah, I'm super stoked to be on
a floating city in the middle ofthe water
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (22:41):
I mean,
david_1_12-12-2025_114 (22:41):
captive.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (22:41):
dude.
I mean, they are cool.
I mean, yeah, like my, mymemories of cruises are pretty
cool.
Pretty chill.
Especially as a kid.
There's so much kid stuff to doand other kids to play with.
Like, I don't know if your kidsnow would enjoy it, like teens.
I mean, yeah, there's like teenstuff to do.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (23:01):
I mean, because if you didn't have
like the water slides.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (23:05):
You do
david_1_12-12-2025_114 (23:06):
buffets.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (23:07):
Do the excursions
david_1_12-12-2025_1146 (23:08):
There's an excursion on a cruise boat.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (23:11):
well, yeah, that's what you, when you
ski at the ports, that's,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (23:15):
At the port,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (23:16):
yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (23:17):
but it's the in between part that
bothers me.
It's the in between.
Like I'm basically, I'mbasically on a.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (23:21):
you get the you get the alcohol card.
So unlimited alcohol.
It used to be like 50 bucks.
I don't know.
It's probably insanelyexpensive now.
For the whole week.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (23:34):
So as a kid you had an alcohol card.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (23:36):
No, they, I had a Coke card.
I.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (23:38):
Oh, nice.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (23:40):
Yeah, unlimited Cherry Cokes, Shirley
Temples all week.
I mean, come on.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (23:45):
Done.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (23:46):
For like 25 bucks.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (23:48):
Now I know why you like cruises.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (23:50):
And then you get the alcohol card
and you just chill.
Plus there's like freeentertainment.
There's like rated R entercomedians and stuff.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (23:59):
Okay,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (23:59):
Yeah, I mean they, and then there's
like, there's lots of stuff,sports bars.
Always games going on.
Like you can go play bingo oryou can,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (24:10):
so.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (24:10):
know.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (24:11):
What I say next is gonna be
completely unfair if it wasn'tfor the alcohol card, the
buffet,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (24:17):
Yeah.
The buffet,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (24:19):
the, and the distracting
entertainment.
I'm basically on a prison ship'cause I can't get off the thing
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (24:24):
No, you probably don't wanna get off.
Could get off.
I mean, you can get off.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (24:29):
But it might be a not great.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (24:31):
I wouldn't suggest it.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (24:32):
I'm kind of a busy body, so that
that's the part.
It, it's really about, it's notme.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (24:36):
Like do you get, or do you, are you the
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (24:38):
No,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (24:39):
has to wear like a patch?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (24:41):
no.
It's just like if I want to goto the, if I want to go to the
next town, I'm gonna, I'm gonnago to the next town.
You can't really go to the nexttown on a cruise ship.
So it's really, it's my fault.
It's not the cruise ships likethey're doing their job.
It's just me with the idea ofbeing on a floating city that I
can't leave.
It's kinda like I love to visitNew York, but if you told me I
couldn't leave, I don't know ifI'd be down with it, but I
(25:01):
suppose if New York stopped at acouple Caribbean beaches, I'm
cool.
So I, I probably should justtry it so I don't not be such a
pansy about it.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (25:10):
I'd just like to I'm gonna segue
into a shout.
If you're still listening tothe podcast, you haven't turned
this off yet.
I re like and I both reallyappreciate that We are, we're
about to get back on track,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (25:23):
Who we are.
Okay.
Speaking.
How about this segue?
Speaking of cruise ships, howabout Japan?
New all time highs?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (25:32):
Like in the.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (25:33):
Yeah,
ian_1_12-12-2025_12461 (25:34):
Actually dollar weight's probably even
looking better now.
Yeah.
Nik?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (25:38):
looks good.
European financials, new, alltime highs.
What do you think about LatinAmerica?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (25:44):
Mexico, I was
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (25:44):
Peru,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124 (25:45):
yesterday.
david_1_12-12-2025_1 (25:46):
Argentina, Mexico.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (25:48):
I mean Mexico, it's not at all time
highs, but it's at.
Like 11 year highs,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (25:54):
Well, Peru makes sense that it's
doing what it's doing.
'cause you know, it's heavilyweighted towards metals and
mining.
So I think
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (26:01):
no Venezuela funds.
Hmm.
david_1_12-12-2025_ (26:04):
interesting
ian_1_12-12-2025_12461 (26:05):
Probably would be in a downtrend.
david_1_12-12-2025_114 (26:07):
probably
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (26:08):
No.
El Salvador funds.
Yes.
There's gotta be.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (26:13):
I'm not seeing any.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (26:14):
Wow.
What about Argentina?
Because that got hit and thenpopped back up.
Yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (26:20):
Yeah, I think, I think Argentina, you
know, near all time highs on arelative basis continues to, to
hold up pretty good at a prettyimportant level.
We had this island reversalback in September.
I think that's significant.
Peru, Chile.
You mentioned Mexico Brazilkind of setting up here.
(26:43):
Not too chef.
Yeah.
It made me sound like I knewwhat I was talking about.
Brazil, Chile.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (26:50):
you might be 10% Portuguese.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (26:53):
Well, it's my red hair.
Everybody knows this.
You mentioned small caps.
I find the mega cap versusmicro cap chart.
Interesting.
So MGC
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (27:05):
Yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (27:06):
mega caps versus micro caps.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (27:08):
Doesn't that look like that trend's
over for a bit?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (27:11):
Yeah.
I mean, could you, could yousee a 2026 where it's value in
small?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (27:17):
Okay.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (27:18):
I could.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (27:19):
So is this gonna be under performance
or are we still so waited tolike, oh God, if tech goes down,
it all goes down.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (27:28):
Yeah.
Right.
Your basic question is if, iftech is going down, is the bull
market over or is it rotationinto value and small?
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (27:37):
On a
david_1_12-12-2025_11461 (27:38):
That's a, that's a great question and
my answer,
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (27:41):
Basis then.
Yeah.
That's probably not great.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (27:44):
my answer is, you know, if you've
got small caps going out to newall time highs.
That's probably rotation.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (27:50):
RSPs looking?
RSPs already at all time highs?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (27:53):
Yeah, and that's before the s and p
500.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (27:55):
Yeah.
Yeah.
I mean, how.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (27:58):
Even E-E-Q-A-L, equal weight.
Russell 1000 new all timehighs.
So rotation.
Rotation to the rest of theteam rather than Pat Mahome.
It's the other part of the teamthat's performing.
That's not a bad thing.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (28:12):
New York stock, NY se composite time
highs.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (28:16):
Dow Jones All time highs.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (28:18):
Wow.
S and p and nasdaq.
Let's do it.
Let's have a whole 12 monthsof.
david_1_12-12- (28:23):
Differentiation.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (28:24):
It'd be cool.
It'd be cool.
david_1_12-12-2025_114 (28:27):
Alright, let's talk bonds and interest
rates.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (28:30):
Oh man.
Well, I keep hearing about arate cut.
Did we get a rate cutyesterday?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (28:36):
Yeah, it was one of these days.
There was a day where Jerry wastalking.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124 (28:39):
Wednesday.
So that's it.
It's Friday, Wednesday.
Rate cut.
We've had like three of 'em, Ithink since September and our
rates
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (28:51):
20
ian_1_12-12-2025_12461 (28:52):
straight up.
Well, not straight up, but theyare significantly higher than,
I'll say this.
We're back to where we were inearly September with 30 year
treasury yields.
david_1_12-12-2025_11461 (29:02):
right.
So the, the bond market iszigging while Jerry is zagging.
It's gonna be interesting tosee how that plays out.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (29:09):
TLT still getting hit, so.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (29:13):
And I would say junk bonds versus
intermediate bonds, stillholding up local currency,
emerging market bonds, doingwell, that's risk on even
convertible bonds.
So these are risk on for fixedincome and all the things that
we mentioned, reaching new alltime highs.
So just because tech, you know,doesn't carry the bag, carry
(29:35):
the ball here, doesn't mean theother things aren't doing well.
And we still have the dollarbelow a hundred and a 200 day
moving average.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (29:43):
Yeah, dollar definitely.
Falling, doing what you wouldwant it to do, I guess.
Down to 98 96, I assume.
And there's not much between 96and 89.
So if we were to get throughthat yeah, so I guess it's so
(30:03):
far.
We're gonna chalk this up tofalling dollars.
Good for stocks.
I think that's kind of what,the environment we've been in
since January.
I mean, dollar, dollar indexpeaked early January, up around
one 10.
Like I said, we're sittingaround 98, got down to 96.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (30:26):
It would not surprise me
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (30:28):
far, I guess we're saying this is good
for stocks subject to change atany moment though.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (30:34):
when I think, you know, when you look
at.
Something like vu.
So international stocks minusUS stocks versus US stocks.
The fact that it's the, thefact that it's holding up this
well, I mean, if you were tosee, you know, international and
value and small outperform in2026, this is what it would
(30:59):
start to look like.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (31:01):
Yeah.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (31:02):
So in 2023, a little over 25% of
stocks in the s and p 500outperformed the index.
In 2024, it was about 30% in2025, we're currently at about
37% of.
Stocks within the s and p 500outperforming the index.
(31:22):
So think about that.
That means 63% of stocks in thes and p are underperforming the
index.
Do we finally get a year, like2021 or 2020 where the majority
of stocks are outperforming theindex, which opens up all sorts
of thesis Then that.
(31:42):
This is actually the start of anew bull leg rather than the
end of a bull leg, if you seethat.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (31:48):
That'd be sweet.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (31:49):
But if you're, if you're gonna see
small caps outperform, if you'regonna see international
perform, that's indicative ofthe first leg of a bull market,
rather than late time will tell.
And it probably would beimportant for me.
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ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (33:01):
I don't just, yeah.
Interesting week.
Overall, average stocks, theaverage stock continues to,
let's say, do better under thesurface.
Yeah.
I mean, and Russell, Russell,at all time highs.
Not a lot to be too spookedabout right now.
(33:23):
Which Bos?
Well, I mean, I think that kindof puts the right weird, I
don't know.
Breath was a little weird therefor a couple months.
As has been the case, nothingreally came of that as far as
major drawdown in the market.
I.
Say that's been, I mean,R-S-P-I-W-M, Dow NYA, hard to be
(33:47):
bearish.
Yeah.
What's that look like?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (33:51):
Yeah, we got, we got column X's
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (33:53):
Okay.
david_1_12-12-2025_ (33:54):
affirmation of breadth expansion
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (33:58):
What, like what is the number?
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (34:01):
in the mid fifties.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (34:02):
Okay,
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (34:03):
So middle of the field heading,
hopefully heading towards theend zone if you want stocks to
go up.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (34:08):
but not too far.
Not too far.
We don't wanna get to like 82.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (34:13):
Yeah, we don't get eighties and
nineties, eighties and nineties.
Probably exhausted the, thebreath expansion.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (34:19):
got a long way to go.
What you're saying.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (34:21):
I do.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (34:22):
like we're getting X, we're back in X
and we're at 73.
david_1_12-12-2025_11461 (34:27):
Right.
And that's, that's the thing,like a lot of these things that
we just talked about today inthis episode is it kind of
points to early stages ofanother leg, but that's kind of
hard to believe, right?
That's probably the, not theconsensus out there.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (34:45):
That would be tough.
So we're at what we're gonnago, how many straight years of
20% returns will this be?
Let's say if we close today,obviously now you said earlier
we're 16% on the year
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (34:57):
For s and p.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (34:58):
for s and p pre S, so probably not
gonna get, I guess so s and ptotal returns gonna be like 18.
I mean, maybe you could get twomore percent in 18 days.
I don't know, but another goodyear so far, so I, I still hear
a lot of, I still hear a lot of,I can't, you know, like when
(35:18):
are we gonna get a bear market?
I can't believe we haven'tgotten a bear market still a
lot.
I still think that there's alot, the bear, like a bear
market has to be 2008.
I think that is a really bigmantra amongst people my age.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (35:34):
Yeah.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (35:34):
has to be, 'cause that's what a lot of
them, I mean, I remember it too.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (35:39):
How quickly, how quickly people
forget that it was
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (35:43):
Yeah.
I
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (35:44):
2022 and 23.
We had a almost 30% correction.
And even earlier this year, youknow, mar people forget that
March and April was a minus 20%correction.
ian_1_12-12-2025_1246 (35:54):
intraday.
I think we got, I'm pretty surewe got the 20.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (35:58):
Yep.
So we've had, we've had twobear markets.
In the last five years.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (36:04):
Well, COVID COVID, if you include
COVID three.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (36:09):
And if you include 2018, that's
four.
That's four.
That's four in seven years.
Four minus 20 plus percentcorrections in four years.
Definitely not the easiestmarkets, but I don't think we
get to sit here and say, well,when's the bear market gonna
happen?
We'll do even study charts.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (36:26):
Yeah, I
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (36:28):
Do you even use price or just using
your
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (36:31):
do.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (36:31):
brain and watching
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (36:32):
Do you
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (36:33):
CNBC and yeah, do you even use a
chart?
So wrap it.
We're, you know, we're gonnahave another two, two weeks, a
little bit more than that forthe end of the year here.
We'll see how we end up, but.
Even though tech's, you know, Iguess you could say that's a
shot across the warning bowel.
Like if tech's not gonna holdup, but if we're gonna rotate
(36:54):
into industrial's, financials,local emerging market bond debt,
I think that's prettyindicative of risk on.
And so you gotta err on theside of the bull market
continuing.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (37:06):
I agree.
I.
david_1_12-12-2025_114617 (37:08):
Well, thanks for being on here again.
We'll be back again next week.
We ask everybody listening tothis to share it and give us a
high ranking on your platform ofchoice.
It's a great compliment to usand we appreciate it.
ian_1_12-12-2025_124618 (37:17):
Have a great weekend everyone.
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