Unpacking the 2024 Election: Trends, Tensions, and Transformations. A Conversation with Lynn Vavreck

In this week’s episode of then & now, we explore the 2024 presidential election and try to understand the enduring impact of a political realignment that began with Donald Trump’s rise in 2016. Joining us is Professor Lynn Vavreck, a UCLA professor and leading expert on U.S. elections. Professor Vavreck explores how Trump’s victories in 2016 and 2024 reflect a seismic shift in American politics from debates over government size to deeply polarizing cultural and identity issues. This realignment, she argues, has reshaped the electorate, with Trump solidifying a coalition built on economic grievances and cultural anxiety. Vavreck connects the economic frustrations that drove the 2024 election to broader historical trends, tracing parallels between the Reagan-era focus on deregulation and morality and today’s identity-inflected politics. She explains that Trump’s success stemmed from his willingness to vocalize attitudes on identity and economic issues that other politicians avoided, making him appear more relatable and aligned with voters’ concerns. Meanwhile, Democrats struggled to counter this with a cohesive message, as the immediacy of economic frustrations and inflation overshadowed their achievements under the Biden-Harris administration. Looking ahead, Vavreck discusses the potential impact of Trump’s second term on government policy and structure, as well as the opportunities and challenges Democrats face in crafting a compelling vision for 2028. 

Lynn Vavreck is the Marvin Hoffenberg Professor of American Politics and Public Policy at UCLA, renowned for her expertise in voter behavior, campaign strategy, and the intersection of economics and elections. She is the co-author of acclaimed books such as The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election and Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America, which explore the critical factors shaping recent presidential races. Vavreck’s research has been pivotal in understanding how political messaging and economic conditions influence voter decision-making and electoral outcomes.