March 11, 2025 • 25 mins
Organizational foresight is the key differentiator between companies that merely survive and those that actively shape their future, enabling systematic anticipation of change through expanded thinking across three time horizons.
• Foresight isn't corporate fortune-telling—it's a sophisticated navigation system showing multiple routes and spotting opportunities others miss
• The three horizons framework balances improving current business (H1: 0-2 years), exploring emerging opportunities (H2: 2-5 years), and reimagining industries (H3: 5-10+ years)
• Effective foresight models include centralized teams, hub-and-spoke systems, or distributed capabilities—choose what fits your organization's culture
• Start small with approaches like "Future Fridays" or trend newsletters before scaling up
• Build a diverse team combining strategic thinkers, researchers, storytellers, and bridge builders
• Create a futures-focused culture by integrating foresight into existing processes and making it safe to challenge assumptions
• Organizations with mature foresight capabilities achieve 33% higher profitability and 200% higher growth than industry averages
• Measure success through learning metrics, process metrics, impact metrics, and value metrics
• Begin with a "futures audit" of recent decisions to identify where foresight could add the most value
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to the Think Forward podcast, where we speak
with futurists, innovators andbig thinkers.
Come along with your host,steve Fisher, and explore the
future together.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
Hey there, future shapers, welcome to the Think
Forward show.
If you are new, then welcome,and if you are returning, then
welcome back.
I'm Steve Fisher, and todaywe're diving into something that
could be the difference betweenyour organization thriving or
just surviving in the yearsahead organizational foresight.
You know, I always wonder whatif Blockbuster had a dedicated
(00:34):
futures team back in the late90s?
Would they have seen Netflixcoming?
Would they have transformedthemselves before it was too
late?
The thing is, it's not justabout seeing what's coming.
It's about building thecapability to shape what's
coming.
That's what organizationalforesight is all about.
In today's episode, we're goingto unpack everything you need
to know about building foresightcapabilities in your
(00:55):
organization.
Whether you're a Fortune 500company or a startup, whether
you're just beginning to thinkabout the future or you're
looking to level up yourexisting foresight program, this
episode is for you.
We'll cover the differentmodels for organizing foresight
work, how to build thesecapabilities from scratch,
creating a futures-focusedculture and, most importantly,
how to make it all work in thereal world.
(01:17):
Plus, I'll share some storiesfrom my own experience that
might just save you from somecommon pitfalls.
My own experience that mightjust save you from some common
pitfalls.
If you caught our last episode,you'll remember our fascinating
conversation with Dr ReneRohrbeck, one of the world's
leading experts onorganizational foresight.
His research has shown a clearlink between strong foresight
capabilities and superiorcorporate performance, something
(01:39):
we'll dive deeper into today.
And if you're enjoying this, wewould really love it if you
subscribed.
And if you are already there, arating and review on your
favorite podcast player would bemost appreciated.
We need to get the word out andshare this information with the
world Now.
When I mention organizationalforesight to executives, I often
get one of two reactions Eitherthey think I'm talking about
(02:02):
some kind of corporatefortune-telling service, or they
assume it's just a fancy namefor strategic planning.
It's actually neither, and bothThink of traditional strategic
planning as using your rearviewmirror and current dashboard to
decide where to drive.
You look at past performance,current metrics and maybe peak a
few months ahead.
That's important, but intoday's world, it's not enough.
Organizational foresight ismore like having a sophisticated
(02:25):
navigation system that can showyou multiple possible routes,
alert you to potentialroadblocks before you hit them
and help you spot opportunitiesthat others might miss.
It's about expanding your viewfrom not just what is, but what
could be.
But here's the key difference,and this is something I learned
the hard way during my timebuilding foresight capabilities
at major corporations.
(02:45):
Foresight isn't just aboutseeing the future, it's about
actively shaping it.
Let me break this down intowhat we call the three horizons
of organizational futures work.
Horizon one is about improvingyour current business.
Think zero to two years out.
This is where most companieslive.
It's your quarterly reports,your annual planning, your
(03:05):
immediate challenges andopportunities.
Horizon two is where things getinteresting Two to five years
out.
This is where you're looking atemerging opportunities, new
business models andtransformative initiatives.
It's the bridge between yourpresent and your future.
Horizon three that's yourvisionary space, 5 to 10 plus
years out.
This is where you exploreradical possibilities and
(03:28):
reimagine what your industrymight look like.
And here's a secret the mostsuccessful companies are working
across all three horizonssimultaneously.
Now I can already hear some ofyou thinking Steve, that sounds
great, but my company can barelyplan for next quarter, let
alone next decade.
Don't worry, I've been there.
The good news is you don't haveto build Rome in a day.
(03:51):
In fact, starting small withfocused foresight initiatives
often works better than tryingto transform your entire
organization overnight.
At its core organizationalforesight involves four key
activities.
First is scanning for signalsof change.
Then there is making sense ofthese signals.
Next is developing possiblefutures.
And then taking action in thepresent.
And you know what.
(04:12):
You're probably already doingsome of these things.
The trick is making themsystematic and intentional,
rather than random and reactive.
It's like upgrading from aweather vane to a modern
meteorological system.
You're still tracking which waythe wind blows, but now you've
got a lot more tools in yourtoolkit.
Now let's take a minute and talkabout organizational models for
Foresight.
(04:32):
So you're convinced that yourorganization needs Foresight
capabilities Great, but nowcomes the big question how do
you actually structure it?
Where does it live in yourorganization?
Who owns it?
I've seen Foresight teams setup in almost every way
imaginable, from lone futuristsworking out of the strategy
department to full-blowninnovation labs with dozens of
people.
Let me break down the mainmodels I've seen work and
(04:55):
sometimes fail.
First up is the centralizedmodel.
Think of this as your foresightcenter of excellence.
It's a dedicated team, usuallyreporting to strategy or
innovation, that serves theentire organization.
Companies like Autodesk haveused this model effectively.
They have a global foresightteam that helps future-proof
strategies across their entireoperation.
(05:16):
Now I'll let you in on a littlesecret, having run centralized
teams before.
They're great for consistencyand building deep expertise, but
they can sometimes feeldisconnected from the day-to-day
business.
That's where our next modelcomes in.
The hub-and-spoke model is likehaving a central foresight team
that works with dedicatedfutures champions embedded in
different business units.
I saw this work beautifully atMcKinsey, where we had a core
(05:40):
futures practice but alsotrained people across different
industry groups to incorporateforesight into their work.
Then there's the distributedmodel, where, instead of a
central team, you have foresightpractitioners embedded
throughout the organization.
This is like having futuresthinking DNA spread throughout
your company's bloodstream.
Let me break down the pros andcons of each model Now.
Centralized teams give you astrong methodology and
(06:01):
consistency, clear ownership andaccountability and are easier
to maintain quality control.
But watch out for potentialisolation from business units,
the risk of being seen as ivorytower futurists and massive
resource constraints.
Now the hub and spoke modeloffers better connection to
business needs, wider reachacross the organization and a
(06:22):
built-in translation betweenfutures and current business.
However, be prepared forcoordination challenges,
competing priorities for yourchampions and a need for strong
governance.
Here's something I learned thehard way the best model isn't
always the most sophisticatedone.
It's the one that fits yourorganization's culture, size and
(06:42):
readiness for foresight work.
If you're just starting out, Iusually recommend beginning with
a small, centralized team oreven a single dedicated person,
then evolving as yourorganization's foresight
maturity grows.
It's like learning to walkbefore you run or, in this case,
learning to forecast before youtry to reshape entire
industries.
Let me share a quick storyabout this.
(07:03):
When we built the FuturesPractice at McKinsey, we didn't
start with a grand rollout.
We began with what my colleague, Phil Balagtas, called a tiny
trends newsletter, just a simpleway to share future-focused
insights.
That small start eventuallygrew into a full-fledged
foresight practice, but it tooktime, proof points and a lot of
relationship building.
Remember, whichever model youchoose, flexibility is key.
(07:27):
Your foresight function needsto be able to evolve as your
organization's needs change andas the future itself unfolds in
unexpected ways.
All right, now comes the funpart actually building your
foresight capability and when Isay fun, I mean it.
Yes, there will be challenges,but there's something incredibly
exciting about creating afunction that could reshape your
(07:49):
organization's future.
Think of building foresightcapability like constructing a
house you need a solidfoundation, the right tools,
skilled people and a clearblueprint.
Let's break this down intomanageable pieces.
First up.
Start small, but think big.
One of the most successfulapproaches I've seen is what I
(08:10):
call the pilot and prove method.
Let me share a quick story.
When we were building thefutures practice at McKinsey, we
didn't start by declaring we'regoing to revolutionize the firm
, and that is with a capital F.
No joke, it's in the brandguide.
Instead, we began with a simplenewsletter sharing emerging
trends.
It was manageable, low risk and, most importantly, it got
(08:32):
people interested in futuresthinking.
Now let's talk about the dreamteam.
You don't need an army, but youdo need the right mix of skills
.
First is having strategicthinkers who can see the big
picture, then having researcherswho can spot patterns and
signals, as well as storytellerswho can communicate
possibilities.
But most importantly, we needwhat I call bridge builders, who
(08:53):
can connect futures thinking tocurrent business needs.
Now let's talk tools andmethodologies.
You know what's funny Sometimesorganizations get so caught up
in buying fancy software andtools that they forget the
basics.
Here's what you really need toget started.
First, start with a systematicway to scan for trends and
signals.
Then employ methods foranalyzing and making sense of
(09:14):
what you find, utilizeframeworks for developing future
scenarios and don't forget toleverage tools for communicating
insights.
This will help you turnforesight into action.
But let me warn you about somecommon pitfalls.
I've stepped into most of thesemyself so you don't have to.
First pitfall Trying to do toomuch too soon.
Remember you're building amuscle your organization hasn't
(09:36):
used before.
Start with exercises it canhandle.
Second not measuring impact.
Yes, measuring futures work canbe tricky, but it's essential.
Track things like the number ofinsights generated, decisions
influenced, strategicinitiatives launched and my
favorite Futures avoided thosecatastrophes you help prevent.
(09:56):
Here's something crucial thatoften gets overlooked Training
and capability development.
You're not just building afunction, you're developing a
new organizational muscle.
This means investing in yourpeople's futures literacy.
Start with basic futuresliteracy training for key
stakeholders, then graduallyexpand to more advanced
methodologies.
Think of it like a futuresthinking boot camp you start
(10:17):
with the basics and work yourway up to the advanced stuff.
Now let's talk about measuringsuccess.
This is where a lot offoresight initiatives stumble.
Traditional ROI metrics don'talways capture the value of
preventing problems or seizingearly opportunities.
Instead, focus on learningmetrics.
How is your organizationgetting better at futures
thinking Process metrics Are yousystematically scanning and
(10:40):
responding to changes?
Impact metrics what decisionsor actions have been influenced?
And value metrics whatopportunities have been captured
or risks avoided?
Remember, building foresightcapability isn't a sprint, it's
a marathon.
But unlike a regular marathon,the finish line keeps moving as
the future unfolds.
That's what makes it exciting.
(11:00):
You're constantly learning,adapting and evolving.
The key is to maintain momentumwhile building credibility.
Each small win builds trust,each accurate insight builds
confidence and, before you knowit, you've created something
invaluable An organization thatdoesn't just react to the future
but actively shapes it.
Now let's talk about making theshift from reactive to proactive
(11:23):
thinking.
And no, this doesn't meaninstalling crystal balls in
every conference room, though Ihave to admit that would make
meetings more interesting.
You can have the best foresightteam, the fanciest tools and
the most brilliant methodologies, but without the right culture
it's like having ahigh-performance sports car
stuck in a traffic jam.
The culture of yourorganization needs to be ready
(11:43):
to embrace futures thinking.
The first big shift is movingfrom predict and plan to explore
and shape.
Here's what I mean.
Traditional planning often askswhat will happen, but futures
thinking asks what could happenand what do we want to happen.
It's a subtle difference.
But futures thinking asks whatcould happen and what do we want
to happen.
It's a subtle difference, butit's transformative.
Now let me address the elephantin the room resistance.
(12:11):
I've heard every objection inthe book.
We're too busy dealing withtoday to think about tomorrow.
We can't afford to take oureyes off quarterly targets.
The future is too uncertain toplan for.
Here's the thing.
The future is too uncertain toplan for.
Here's the thing.
These aren't really objectionsto futures thinking.
They're symptoms of apresent-focused culture that
needs to evolve.
Let me share some practicalstrategies for shifting this
mindset.
First, integrate futuresthinking into existing processes
(12:32):
.
Don't make it a separateactivity.
When you're having strategydiscussions, make it natural to
ask what signals of change arewe seeing or what assumptions
about the future are we making?
Second, build futures literacyacross the organization.
This isn't about turningeveryone into a futurist.
It's about giving people thebasic tools to think more
(12:53):
systematically about the future.
And here's a crucial pieceGetting leadership buy-in.
I learned this one the hard wayat McKinsey.
You need executive sponsors whodon't just support futures work
but actively champion it.
Let me share a quick win thatoften works.
Start with what I call futuresconversations.
In your next leadership meeting, take 10 minutes to discuss a
(13:15):
trend or signal that couldimpact your business.
Make it casual, make itinteresting, make it relevant.
I saw this work brilliantly ata company where we started doing
Future Fridays Just 30 minutesevery Friday to explore emerging
trends.
Within months, people werenaturally incorporating futures
thinking into their daily work.
But here's the real secret tocultural transformation you need
(13:36):
to make futures thinking feelsafe and valuable.
This means celebrating goodquestions as much as good
answers, rewarding people whospot early warning signals,
creating space forexperimentation and learning,
and making it okay to challengeassumptions about the future.
One of my favorite techniquesis what I call future back
thinking.
It's also called backcasting.
So instead of starting withtoday's problems and projecting
(13:59):
forward, start with a possiblefuture and work backward.
It's amazing how this simpleshift can unlock new
perspectives.
For example, instead of askinghow can we improve our current
product, ask what would ourproduct look like in a world
where insert future scenario?
It's not just a differentquestion, it's a different way
of thinking.
Remember, cultural changedoesn't happen overnight, but
(14:22):
with consistent effort and theright approach, you can build an
organization that's not justprepared for the future, it's
excited about it.
Let's talk money, because atsome point someone in your
organization is going to askwhat's the ROI on all this
future stuff?
And they should.
After all, we're not running ascience fiction book club.
We're trying to create realbusiness value.
(14:42):
Now here's an interestingstatistic Organizations with
mature foresight capabilitiesconsistently outperform their
peers in long-term valuecreation.
But and this is importantmeasuring the ROI of foresight
isn't like measuring the returnon a new piece of equipment.
As Dr Rene Rohrbeck shared withus in our last episode, his
research has shown thatcompanies with strong foresight
(15:04):
capabilities achieve 33% higherprofitability and 200% higher
growth than the industry average.
That's not just impressive.
It's compelling evidence thatforesight isn't just a
nice-to-have.
It's a competitive necessity.
His work at the Aarhus Schoolof Business has demonstrated
that systematic foresightpractices lead to better
strategic decisions, moresuccessful innovation and
(15:26):
greater organizationalresilience.
Think of it this way how do youmeasure the ROI of avoiding a
disaster or spotting anopportunity before your
competitors?
It's a bit like trying tomeasure the value of an umbrella
before it rains.
When we think about the future,it's not just about predicting
what might happen.
It's about preparing formultiple possibilities, so we're
never caught off guard.
One of the biggest advantagesof strategic foresight is risk
(15:49):
mitigation getting an earlywarning about disruptive changes
before they happen.
This means we can plan ahead,reducing the surprise factor in
crisis situations and stayingadaptable no matter what comes
our way.
But it's not just about defense.
It's also about playing offense.
Innovation opportunities becomemuch clearer when we identify
emerging markets, spot newproduct and service
(16:09):
possibilities and even developnovel business models before the
competition does.
This leads directly tostrategic advantage.
Organizations that embraceforesight are better positioned
for market shifts, giving themmore time to prepare and adapt.
That kind of proactive thinkingcreates first mover advantages,
especially in emerging areas.
And of course, there'soperational excellence the
(16:30):
ability to build more resilientsupply chains, allocate
resources more effectively andimprove long-term planning.
It's about making smarter,future-ready decisions so that
when change comes knocking,we're not scrambling, we're
leading.
But let's talk about theelephant in the room the cost of
not having foresightcapabilities.
Remember Kodak they actuallyinvented the digital camera, but
failed to see how it wouldtransform their industry.
(16:51):
Or Blockbuster they had thechance to buy Netflix for $50
million.
Today, netflix is worth over$100 billion.
At the end of the day, thevalue of foresight isn't just
about having a cool vision ofthe future.
It's about impact.
One way to measure that is bylooking at how many strategic
initiatives were actuallyinfluenced by foresight work.
Are leadership teams makingbetter decisions because they
(17:14):
saw the signals early?
Then there's cost savings howmuch money was saved by
identifying risks before theybecame full-blown crises?
On the flip side, it's alsoabout growth.
How much new revenue came fromopportunities that might have
been missed without afuture-focused approach?
Speed matters too.
How quickly did theorganization respond to market
shifts compared to competitors?
And speaking of competitors,did foresight create a real
(17:37):
advantage, allowing the companyto lead rather than react?
When you put all of thistogether, foresight isn't just a
nice-to-have.
It's a core driver ofresilience, innovation and
long-term success.
Here's a pro tip for buildingyour business case Start
tracking these metrics from dayone.
Even if they're not perfectmeasures, having some data is
(17:58):
better than having none.
Let me share some real numbersfrom companies that have done
this well.
Shell's scenario planninghelped them navigate the 1973
oil crisis better than theircompetitors.
Apple's foresight and userexperience trends led to the
iPhone revolution.
Amazon's AWS came from seeingthe future of cloud computing
before others.
But perhaps the most compellingbusiness case for foresight is
(18:19):
this the pace of change isn'tslowing down.
If anything, it's accelerating.
Organizations that can't seeand adapt to change won't just
fall behind.
They might not survive at all.
Think about the changes comingin the next decade AI, climate
adaptation, demographic shifts,new business models.
The question isn't whetherthese will impact your business.
(18:41):
It's whether you'll see themcoming in time to act.
The investment in foresightcapabilities is like buying an
insurance policy and a growthengine rolled into one.
It helps protect you from riskswhile positioning you to seize
opportunities.
Now, theory is great, but, asthey say, the proof is in the
pudding, or, in our case, theproof is in the real-world
(19:05):
applications.
Let's look at how organizationsare actually putting foresight
into practice the good, the badand, yes, occasionally the ugly.
Let's start with a successstory that I witnessed firsthand
building the futures practiceat McKinsey.
You know what's interesting.
It didn't start with a grandvision or a massive budget.
It started with a simplenewsletter called Tiny Trends
just a few people sharinginsights about emerging changes.
(19:27):
But here's where it gets good.
That small start evolved into afull-fledged futures practice.
The key was buildingcredibility step by step First
providing insights that businessunits found valuable, then
influencing actual clientprojects, finally becoming an
integral part of strategicplanning.
And then COVID hit and we werethe bell of the ball.
Our tiny group was the onepartners brought in because many
(19:50):
companies were not equipped tonavigate this and terrified of
making a fatal financial move.
But with us it helped themnavigate uncertainty and weather
the storm to be more resilient.
Let's look at another greatexample.
Mcdonald's Global Foresightteam, led by Joe Lepore who we
interviewed in episode 122,explained how foresight can work
in a large, complexorganization.
(20:11):
They focus on future-proofingstrategies by centering on human
needs and sustainability.
But let's be real Not everyforesight initiative succeeds
and we can learn just as muchfrom the failures as the
successes.
The biggest reason foresightinitiatives fail isn't because
the ideas are bad.
It's because they'redisconnected from the real
decisions that drive thebusiness.
(20:31):
When foresight operates inisolation, separate from core
strategy and leadershipconversations, it becomes more
of an intellectual exercise thana practical tool.
Another common pitfall isfocusing too much on the distant
future without making itrelevant to today's challenges.
If foresight doesn't connect toshort-term priorities, it gets
ignored.
And then there's the internalbuy-in.
(20:52):
If there aren't championswithin the organization
advocating for foresight andintegrating it into
decision-making, it quicklyloses momentum.
Integrating it intodecision-making, it quickly
loses momentum.
The key lesson foresight has tobe embedded, actionable and
backed by people who cantranslate future insights into
real-world impact.
Otherwise, it just becomesanother interesting report that
sits on a shelf.
(21:12):
During the pandemic, when mostcompanies were scrambling just
to survive, one organizationtook a different approach.
They used foresight toreimagine their entire business
model.
Instead of reacting to change,they anticipated it.
They spotted emerging customerneeds before their competitors
launched new digital services,ahead of the curve and built
supply chains that couldwithstand future disruptions.
(21:32):
But the real game changer theycreated a culture of forward
thinking, embedding foresightinto how they operated every day
.
And you don't need a massiveteam or fancy tools to do the
same.
Start simple Create a signalsdatabase where employees log
interesting trends they notice,then meet monthly to spot
patterns and discussimplications.
Try Future Fridays where, forjust 30 minutes a week, you
(21:55):
explore one emerging trend andhow it could impact your
business.
Or run quick scenario sprintsfast, focused exercises that
help teams think throughdifferent futures and apply
those insights to real decisions.
The most successful foresightprograms aren't the most complex
.
They're the ones thatseamlessly fit into how the
organization already works, fromstrategic planning to
innovation sessions to riskmanagement reviews.
(22:18):
The future isn't something youpredict.
It's something you prepare for,and it starts with small,
intentional predict.
It's something you prepare forand it starts with small,
intentional steps.
These are all natural places tointegrate futures thinking, and
remember to measure and shareyour successes.
Even small wins can buildmomentum.
Document every time foresighthelps avoid a problem or spot an
opportunity.
Let me share a practical tip.
Start with what I call afutures audit.
(22:40):
Look at your last five majordecisions.
How many of them were reactiveversus proactive?
How many were based on pastdata versus future insights?
This simple exercise can revealexactly where foresight could
add the most value in yourorganization.
We've covered a lot of groundtoday, from organizational
models to practicalimplementation steps, but here's
(23:02):
what I really want you to takeaway Building foresight
capability isn't just aboutpreparing for the future.
It's about creating the futureyou want to see.
Let's recap the essentialpoints Foresight is a capability
, not just a function.
Start small, but thinksystematically.
Connect future's work tocurrent business needs.
Build culture alongsidecapability, and measure and
(23:23):
communicate impact.
Here's your homework.
Yes, I'm giving homework thisweek.
Start collecting signals ofchange in your industry.
Identify one strategic decisionthat could benefit from futures
thinking.
Find one ally in yourorganization who gets excited
about this work.
For those ready to dive deeper,check out our show notes with
key resources like the ThinkForward community recommended
(23:45):
books and tools.
And definitely go back andlisten to our conversation with
Dr Rene Rohrbeck in episode 126,if you haven't already Remember
.
Every organization doing greatfutures work today started
somewhere, usually with oneperson who decided to look a
little further ahead, think alittle differently and take that
first step toward buildingforesight capability.
(24:06):
Why not let that person be you?
Until then, keep scanning thosehorizons and always think
forward.
Speaker 1 (24:12):
Thanks for listening to the Think Forward podcast.
You can find us on all themajor podcast platforms and at
wwwthinkforwardshowcom, as wellas on YouTube under Think
Forward Show.
See you next time.
Welcome to the Think Forward podcast, where we speak
with futurists, innovators andbig thinkers.
Come along with your host,steve Fisher, and explore the
future together.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
Hey there, future shapers, welcome to the Think
Forward show.
If you are new, then welcome,and if you are returning, then
welcome back.
I'm Steve Fisher, and todaywe're diving into something that
could be the difference betweenyour organization thriving or
just surviving in the yearsahead organizational foresight.
You know, I always wonder whatif Blockbuster had a dedicated
(00:34):
futures team back in the late90s?
Would they have seen Netflixcoming?
Would they have transformedthemselves before it was too
late?
The thing is, it's not justabout seeing what's coming.
It's about building thecapability to shape what's
coming.
That's what organizationalforesight is all about.
In today's episode, we're goingto unpack everything you need
to know about building foresightcapabilities in your
(00:55):
organization.
Whether you're a Fortune 500company or a startup, whether
you're just beginning to thinkabout the future or you're
looking to level up yourexisting foresight program, this
episode is for you.
We'll cover the differentmodels for organizing foresight
work, how to build thesecapabilities from scratch,
creating a futures-focusedculture and, most importantly,
how to make it all work in thereal world.
(01:17):
Plus, I'll share some storiesfrom my own experience that
might just save you from somecommon pitfalls.
My own experience that mightjust save you from some common
pitfalls.
If you caught our last episode,you'll remember our fascinating
conversation with Dr ReneRohrbeck, one of the world's
leading experts onorganizational foresight.
His research has shown a clearlink between strong foresight
capabilities and superiorcorporate performance, something
(01:39):
we'll dive deeper into today.
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When I mention organizationalforesight to executives, I often
get one of two reactions Eitherthey think I'm talking about
(02:02):
some kind of corporatefortune-telling service, or they
assume it's just a fancy namefor strategic planning.
It's actually neither, and bothThink of traditional strategic
planning as using your rearviewmirror and current dashboard to
decide where to drive.
You look at past performance,current metrics and maybe peak a
few months ahead.
That's important, but intoday's world, it's not enough.
Organizational foresight ismore like having a sophisticated
(02:25):
navigation system that can showyou multiple possible routes,
alert you to potentialroadblocks before you hit them
and help you spot opportunitiesthat others might miss.
It's about expanding your viewfrom not just what is, but what
could be.
But here's the key difference,and this is something I learned
the hard way during my timebuilding foresight capabilities
at major corporations.
(02:45):
Foresight isn't just aboutseeing the future, it's about
actively shaping it.
Let me break this down intowhat we call the three horizons
of organizational futures work.
Horizon one is about improvingyour current business.
Think zero to two years out.
This is where most companieslive.
It's your quarterly reports,your annual planning, your
(03:05):
immediate challenges andopportunities.
Horizon two is where things getinteresting Two to five years
out.
This is where you're looking atemerging opportunities, new
business models andtransformative initiatives.
It's the bridge between yourpresent and your future.
Horizon three that's yourvisionary space, 5 to 10 plus
years out.
This is where you exploreradical possibilities and
(03:28):
reimagine what your industrymight look like.
And here's a secret the mostsuccessful companies are working
across all three horizonssimultaneously.
Now I can already hear some ofyou thinking Steve, that sounds
great, but my company can barelyplan for next quarter, let
alone next decade.
Don't worry, I've been there.
The good news is you don't haveto build Rome in a day.
(03:51):
In fact, starting small withfocused foresight initiatives
often works better than tryingto transform your entire
organization overnight.
At its core organizationalforesight involves four key
activities.
First is scanning for signalsof change.
Then there is making sense ofthese signals.
Next is developing possiblefutures.
And then taking action in thepresent.
And you know what.
(04:12):
You're probably already doingsome of these things.
The trick is making themsystematic and intentional,
rather than random and reactive.
It's like upgrading from aweather vane to a modern
meteorological system.
You're still tracking which waythe wind blows, but now you've
got a lot more tools in yourtoolkit.
Now let's take a minute and talkabout organizational models for
Foresight.
(04:32):
So you're convinced that yourorganization needs Foresight
capabilities Great, but nowcomes the big question how do
you actually structure it?
Where does it live in yourorganization?
Who owns it?
I've seen Foresight teams setup in almost every way
imaginable, from lone futuristsworking out of the strategy
department to full-blowninnovation labs with dozens of
people.
Let me break down the mainmodels I've seen work and
(04:55):
sometimes fail.
First up is the centralizedmodel.
Think of this as your foresightcenter of excellence.
It's a dedicated team, usuallyreporting to strategy or
innovation, that serves theentire organization.
Companies like Autodesk haveused this model effectively.
They have a global foresightteam that helps future-proof
strategies across their entireoperation.
(05:16):
Now I'll let you in on a littlesecret, having run centralized
teams before.
They're great for consistencyand building deep expertise, but
they can sometimes feeldisconnected from the day-to-day
business.
That's where our next modelcomes in.
The hub-and-spoke model is likehaving a central foresight team
that works with dedicatedfutures champions embedded in
different business units.
I saw this work beautifully atMcKinsey, where we had a core
(05:40):
futures practice but alsotrained people across different
industry groups to incorporateforesight into their work.
Then there's the distributedmodel, where, instead of a
central team, you have foresightpractitioners embedded
throughout the organization.
This is like having futuresthinking DNA spread throughout
your company's bloodstream.
Let me break down the pros andcons of each model Now.
Centralized teams give you astrong methodology and
(06:01):
consistency, clear ownership andaccountability and are easier
to maintain quality control.
But watch out for potentialisolation from business units,
the risk of being seen as ivorytower futurists and massive
resource constraints.
Now the hub and spoke modeloffers better connection to
business needs, wider reachacross the organization and a
(06:22):
built-in translation betweenfutures and current business.
However, be prepared forcoordination challenges,
competing priorities for yourchampions and a need for strong
governance.
Here's something I learned thehard way the best model isn't
always the most sophisticatedone.
It's the one that fits yourorganization's culture, size and
(06:42):
readiness for foresight work.
If you're just starting out, Iusually recommend beginning with
a small, centralized team oreven a single dedicated person,
then evolving as yourorganization's foresight
maturity grows.
It's like learning to walkbefore you run or, in this case,
learning to forecast before youtry to reshape entire
industries.
Let me share a quick storyabout this.
(07:03):
When we built the FuturesPractice at McKinsey, we didn't
start with a grand rollout.
We began with what my colleague, Phil Balagtas, called a tiny
trends newsletter, just a simpleway to share future-focused
insights.
That small start eventuallygrew into a full-fledged
foresight practice, but it tooktime, proof points and a lot of
relationship building.
Remember, whichever model youchoose, flexibility is key.
(07:27):
Your foresight function needsto be able to evolve as your
organization's needs change andas the future itself unfolds in
unexpected ways.
All right, now comes the funpart actually building your
foresight capability and when Isay fun, I mean it.
Yes, there will be challenges,but there's something incredibly
exciting about creating afunction that could reshape your
(07:49):
organization's future.
Think of building foresightcapability like constructing a
house you need a solidfoundation, the right tools,
skilled people and a clearblueprint.
Let's break this down intomanageable pieces.
First up.
Start small, but think big.
One of the most successfulapproaches I've seen is what I
(08:10):
call the pilot and prove method.
Let me share a quick story.
When we were building thefutures practice at McKinsey, we
didn't start by declaring we'regoing to revolutionize the firm
, and that is with a capital F.
No joke, it's in the brandguide.
Instead, we began with a simplenewsletter sharing emerging
trends.
It was manageable, low risk and, most importantly, it got
(08:32):
people interested in futuresthinking.
Now let's talk about the dreamteam.
You don't need an army, but youdo need the right mix of skills
.
First is having strategicthinkers who can see the big
picture, then having researcherswho can spot patterns and
signals, as well as storytellerswho can communicate
possibilities.
But most importantly, we needwhat I call bridge builders, who
(08:53):
can connect futures thinking tocurrent business needs.
Now let's talk tools andmethodologies.
You know what's funny Sometimesorganizations get so caught up
in buying fancy software andtools that they forget the
basics.
Here's what you really need toget started.
First, start with a systematicway to scan for trends and
signals.
Then employ methods foranalyzing and making sense of
(09:14):
what you find, utilizeframeworks for developing future
scenarios and don't forget toleverage tools for communicating
insights.
This will help you turnforesight into action.
But let me warn you about somecommon pitfalls.
I've stepped into most of thesemyself so you don't have to.
First pitfall Trying to do toomuch too soon.
Remember you're building amuscle your organization hasn't
(09:36):
used before.
Start with exercises it canhandle.
Second not measuring impact.
Yes, measuring futures work canbe tricky, but it's essential.
Track things like the number ofinsights generated, decisions
influenced, strategicinitiatives launched and my
favorite Futures avoided thosecatastrophes you help prevent.
(09:56):
Here's something crucial thatoften gets overlooked Training
and capability development.
You're not just building afunction, you're developing a
new organizational muscle.
This means investing in yourpeople's futures literacy.
Start with basic futuresliteracy training for key
stakeholders, then graduallyexpand to more advanced
methodologies.
Think of it like a futuresthinking boot camp you start
(10:17):
with the basics and work yourway up to the advanced stuff.
Now let's talk about measuringsuccess.
This is where a lot offoresight initiatives stumble.
Traditional ROI metrics don'talways capture the value of
preventing problems or seizingearly opportunities.
Instead, focus on learningmetrics.
How is your organizationgetting better at futures
thinking Process metrics Are yousystematically scanning and
(10:40):
responding to changes?
Impact metrics what decisionsor actions have been influenced?
And value metrics whatopportunities have been captured
or risks avoided?
Remember, building foresightcapability isn't a sprint, it's
a marathon.
But unlike a regular marathon,the finish line keeps moving as
the future unfolds.
That's what makes it exciting.
(11:00):
You're constantly learning,adapting and evolving.
The key is to maintain momentumwhile building credibility.
Each small win builds trust,each accurate insight builds
confidence and, before you knowit, you've created something
invaluable An organization thatdoesn't just react to the future
but actively shapes it.
Now let's talk about making theshift from reactive to proactive
(11:23):
thinking.
And no, this doesn't meaninstalling crystal balls in
every conference room, though Ihave to admit that would make
meetings more interesting.
You can have the best foresightteam, the fanciest tools and
the most brilliant methodologies, but without the right culture
it's like having ahigh-performance sports car
stuck in a traffic jam.
The culture of yourorganization needs to be ready
(11:43):
to embrace futures thinking.
The first big shift is movingfrom predict and plan to explore
and shape.
Here's what I mean.
Traditional planning often askswhat will happen, but futures
thinking asks what could happenand what do we want to happen.
It's a subtle difference.
But futures thinking asks whatcould happen and what do we want
to happen.
It's a subtle difference, butit's transformative.
Now let me address the elephantin the room resistance.
(12:11):
I've heard every objection inthe book.
We're too busy dealing withtoday to think about tomorrow.
We can't afford to take oureyes off quarterly targets.
The future is too uncertain toplan for.
Here's the thing.
The future is too uncertain toplan for.
Here's the thing.
These aren't really objectionsto futures thinking.
They're symptoms of apresent-focused culture that
needs to evolve.
Let me share some practicalstrategies for shifting this
mindset.
First, integrate futuresthinking into existing processes
(12:32):
.
Don't make it a separateactivity.
When you're having strategydiscussions, make it natural to
ask what signals of change arewe seeing or what assumptions
about the future are we making?
Second, build futures literacyacross the organization.
This isn't about turningeveryone into a futurist.
It's about giving people thebasic tools to think more
(12:53):
systematically about the future.
And here's a crucial pieceGetting leadership buy-in.
I learned this one the hard wayat McKinsey.
You need executive sponsors whodon't just support futures work
but actively champion it.
Let me share a quick win thatoften works.
Start with what I call futuresconversations.
In your next leadership meeting, take 10 minutes to discuss a
(13:15):
trend or signal that couldimpact your business.
Make it casual, make itinteresting, make it relevant.
I saw this work brilliantly ata company where we started doing
Future Fridays Just 30 minutesevery Friday to explore emerging
trends.
Within months, people werenaturally incorporating futures
thinking into their daily work.
But here's the real secret tocultural transformation you need
(13:36):
to make futures thinking feelsafe and valuable.
This means celebrating goodquestions as much as good
answers, rewarding people whospot early warning signals,
creating space forexperimentation and learning,
and making it okay to challengeassumptions about the future.
One of my favorite techniquesis what I call future back
thinking.
It's also called backcasting.
So instead of starting withtoday's problems and projecting
(13:59):
forward, start with a possiblefuture and work backward.
It's amazing how this simpleshift can unlock new
perspectives.
For example, instead of askinghow can we improve our current
product, ask what would ourproduct look like in a world
where insert future scenario?
It's not just a differentquestion, it's a different way
of thinking.
Remember, cultural changedoesn't happen overnight, but
(14:22):
with consistent effort and theright approach, you can build an
organization that's not justprepared for the future, it's
excited about it.
Let's talk money, because atsome point someone in your
organization is going to askwhat's the ROI on all this
future stuff?
And they should.
After all, we're not running ascience fiction book club.
We're trying to create realbusiness value.
(14:42):
Now here's an interestingstatistic Organizations with
mature foresight capabilitiesconsistently outperform their
peers in long-term valuecreation.
But and this is importantmeasuring the ROI of foresight
isn't like measuring the returnon a new piece of equipment.
As Dr Rene Rohrbeck shared withus in our last episode, his
research has shown thatcompanies with strong foresight
(15:04):
capabilities achieve 33% higherprofitability and 200% higher
growth than the industry average.
That's not just impressive.
It's compelling evidence thatforesight isn't just a
nice-to-have.
It's a competitive necessity.
His work at the Aarhus Schoolof Business has demonstrated
that systematic foresightpractices lead to better
strategic decisions, moresuccessful innovation and
(15:26):
greater organizationalresilience.
Think of it this way how do youmeasure the ROI of avoiding a
disaster or spotting anopportunity before your
competitors?
It's a bit like trying tomeasure the value of an umbrella
before it rains.
When we think about the future,it's not just about predicting
what might happen.
It's about preparing formultiple possibilities, so we're
never caught off guard.
One of the biggest advantagesof strategic foresight is risk
(15:49):
mitigation getting an earlywarning about disruptive changes
before they happen.
This means we can plan ahead,reducing the surprise factor in
crisis situations and stayingadaptable no matter what comes
our way.
But it's not just about defense.
It's also about playing offense.
Innovation opportunities becomemuch clearer when we identify
emerging markets, spot newproduct and service
(16:09):
possibilities and even developnovel business models before the
competition does.
This leads directly tostrategic advantage.
Organizations that embraceforesight are better positioned
for market shifts, giving themmore time to prepare and adapt.
That kind of proactive thinkingcreates first mover advantages,
especially in emerging areas.
And of course, there'soperational excellence the
(16:30):
ability to build more resilientsupply chains, allocate
resources more effectively andimprove long-term planning.
It's about making smarter,future-ready decisions so that
when change comes knocking,we're not scrambling, we're
leading.
But let's talk about theelephant in the room the cost of
not having foresightcapabilities.
Remember Kodak they actuallyinvented the digital camera, but
failed to see how it wouldtransform their industry.
(16:51):
Or Blockbuster they had thechance to buy Netflix for $50
million.
Today, netflix is worth over$100 billion.
At the end of the day, thevalue of foresight isn't just
about having a cool vision ofthe future.
It's about impact.
One way to measure that is bylooking at how many strategic
initiatives were actuallyinfluenced by foresight work.
Are leadership teams makingbetter decisions because they
(17:14):
saw the signals early?
Then there's cost savings howmuch money was saved by
identifying risks before theybecame full-blown crises?
On the flip side, it's alsoabout growth.
How much new revenue came fromopportunities that might have
been missed without afuture-focused approach?
Speed matters too.
How quickly did theorganization respond to market
shifts compared to competitors?
And speaking of competitors,did foresight create a real
(17:37):
advantage, allowing the companyto lead rather than react?
When you put all of thistogether, foresight isn't just a
nice-to-have.
It's a core driver ofresilience, innovation and
long-term success.
Here's a pro tip for buildingyour business case Start
tracking these metrics from dayone.
Even if they're not perfectmeasures, having some data is
(17:58):
better than having none.
Let me share some real numbersfrom companies that have done
this well.
Shell's scenario planninghelped them navigate the 1973
oil crisis better than theircompetitors.
Apple's foresight and userexperience trends led to the
iPhone revolution.
Amazon's AWS came from seeingthe future of cloud computing
before others.
But perhaps the most compellingbusiness case for foresight is
(18:19):
this the pace of change isn'tslowing down.
If anything, it's accelerating.
Organizations that can't seeand adapt to change won't just
fall behind.
They might not survive at all.
Think about the changes comingin the next decade AI, climate
adaptation, demographic shifts,new business models.
The question isn't whetherthese will impact your business.
(18:41):
It's whether you'll see themcoming in time to act.
The investment in foresightcapabilities is like buying an
insurance policy and a growthengine rolled into one.
It helps protect you from riskswhile positioning you to seize
opportunities.
Now, theory is great, but, asthey say, the proof is in the
pudding, or, in our case, theproof is in the real-world
(19:05):
applications.
Let's look at how organizationsare actually putting foresight
into practice the good, the badand, yes, occasionally the ugly.
Let's start with a successstory that I witnessed firsthand
building the futures practiceat McKinsey.
You know what's interesting.
It didn't start with a grandvision or a massive budget.
It started with a simplenewsletter called Tiny Trends
just a few people sharinginsights about emerging changes.
(19:27):
But here's where it gets good.
That small start evolved into afull-fledged futures practice.
The key was buildingcredibility step by step First
providing insights that businessunits found valuable, then
influencing actual clientprojects, finally becoming an
integral part of strategicplanning.
And then COVID hit and we werethe bell of the ball.
Our tiny group was the onepartners brought in because many
(19:50):
companies were not equipped tonavigate this and terrified of
making a fatal financial move.
But with us it helped themnavigate uncertainty and weather
the storm to be more resilient.
Let's look at another greatexample.
Mcdonald's Global Foresightteam, led by Joe Lepore who we
interviewed in episode 122,explained how foresight can work
in a large, complexorganization.
(20:11):
They focus on future-proofingstrategies by centering on human
needs and sustainability.
But let's be real Not everyforesight initiative succeeds
and we can learn just as muchfrom the failures as the
successes.
The biggest reason foresightinitiatives fail isn't because
the ideas are bad.
It's because they'redisconnected from the real
decisions that drive thebusiness.
(20:31):
When foresight operates inisolation, separate from core
strategy and leadershipconversations, it becomes more
of an intellectual exercise thana practical tool.
Another common pitfall isfocusing too much on the distant
future without making itrelevant to today's challenges.
If foresight doesn't connect toshort-term priorities, it gets
ignored.
And then there's the internalbuy-in.
(20:52):
If there aren't championswithin the organization
advocating for foresight andintegrating it into
decision-making, it quicklyloses momentum.
Integrating it intodecision-making, it quickly
loses momentum.
The key lesson foresight has tobe embedded, actionable and
backed by people who cantranslate future insights into
real-world impact.
Otherwise, it just becomesanother interesting report that
sits on a shelf.
(21:12):
During the pandemic, when mostcompanies were scrambling just
to survive, one organizationtook a different approach.
They used foresight toreimagine their entire business
model.
Instead of reacting to change,they anticipated it.
They spotted emerging customerneeds before their competitors
launched new digital services,ahead of the curve and built
supply chains that couldwithstand future disruptions.
(21:32):
But the real game changer theycreated a culture of forward
thinking, embedding foresightinto how they operated every day
.
And you don't need a massiveteam or fancy tools to do the
same.
Start simple Create a signalsdatabase where employees log
interesting trends they notice,then meet monthly to spot
patterns and discussimplications.
Try Future Fridays where, forjust 30 minutes a week, you
(21:55):
explore one emerging trend andhow it could impact your
business.
Or run quick scenario sprintsfast, focused exercises that
help teams think throughdifferent futures and apply
those insights to real decisions.
The most successful foresightprograms aren't the most complex
.
They're the ones thatseamlessly fit into how the
organization already works, fromstrategic planning to
innovation sessions to riskmanagement reviews.
(22:18):
The future isn't something youpredict.
It's something you prepare for,and it starts with small,
intentional predict.
It's something you prepare forand it starts with small,
intentional steps.
These are all natural places tointegrate futures thinking, and
remember to measure and shareyour successes.
Even small wins can buildmomentum.
Document every time foresighthelps avoid a problem or spot an
opportunity.
Let me share a practical tip.
Start with what I call afutures audit.
(22:40):
Look at your last five majordecisions.
How many of them were reactiveversus proactive?
How many were based on pastdata versus future insights?
This simple exercise can revealexactly where foresight could
add the most value in yourorganization.
We've covered a lot of groundtoday, from organizational
models to practicalimplementation steps, but here's
(23:02):
what I really want you to takeaway Building foresight
capability isn't just aboutpreparing for the future.
It's about creating the futureyou want to see.
Let's recap the essentialpoints Foresight is a capability
, not just a function.
Start small, but thinksystematically.
Connect future's work tocurrent business needs.
Build culture alongsidecapability, and measure and
(23:23):
communicate impact.
Here's your homework.
Yes, I'm giving homework thisweek.
Start collecting signals ofchange in your industry.
Identify one strategic decisionthat could benefit from futures
thinking.
Find one ally in yourorganization who gets excited
about this work.
For those ready to dive deeper,check out our show notes with
key resources like the ThinkForward community recommended
(23:45):
books and tools.
And definitely go back andlisten to our conversation with
Dr Rene Rohrbeck in episode 126,if you haven't already Remember
.
Every organization doing greatfutures work today started
somewhere, usually with oneperson who decided to look a
little further ahead, think alittle differently and take that
first step toward buildingforesight capability.
(24:06):
Why not let that person be you?
Until then, keep scanning thosehorizons and always think
forward.
Speaker 1 (24:12):
Thanks for listening to the Think Forward podcast.
You can find us on all themajor podcast platforms and at
wwwthinkforwardshowcom, as wellas on YouTube under Think
Forward Show.
See you next time.
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