April 14, 2025 • 63 mins
Alex Fergnani takes us on a journey from his beginnings as a martial arts student in Asia to becoming a provocative voice in futures thinking with his groundbreaking approach to foresight wisdom. His upcoming book "The Dao of Foresight" with Penguin represents a fresh approach to teaching foresight concepts through an entertaining narrative set in a fictional world.
Following a hero's journey structure, the novel follows a young disciple seeking a master to help save his endangered village. Through this adventure, readers learn foresight techniques while engaging with wisdom from Taoism, Zen Buddhism, and Confucianism. Alex shares the comprehensive world-building process behind the book—creating maps, character backgrounds, and plot structures that form a rich universe accessible to audiences from teenagers to seasoned practitioners.
Some highlights from our conversation:
- Entered futures accidentally after pursuing Asian studies and discovering a Future Studies program in Taiwan
- Views Kung Fu as the primary influence on his approach to foresight—focusing on rigorous fundamentals, discipline, and systematic processes
- Created "The Dao of Foresight" as an edutainment novel set in the Land of Pangu
- Developed a comprehensive world-building process with maps, character backgrounds, and a hero's journey narrative structure
- Believes the foresight field should first distinguish between futurism (speculation) and foresight (systematic approaches)
- Pivoting his career toward becoming a "communicator of wisdom" rather than a traditional foresight practitioner
His personal revelation that his initial attraction to foresight's ambitious scope was partly compensating for deeper psychological needs offers powerful insight for anyone drawn to futures work. Whether you're curious about alternative approaches to futures thinking or interested in how storytelling can transform complex concepts, this episode offers a thought-provoking blend of Eastern wisdom and foresight practice.
Find Alex on LinkedIn and YouTube, and join his mailing list to receive updates about "The Dao of Foresight" and when it is available here for pre-order:
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Thank you for joining me on this ongoing journey into the future. Until next time, stay curious, and always think forward.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to the Think Forward Show.
Let's explore the futuretogether.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
Welcome, friends and fellow big thinkers.
Today we're diving into afascinating conversation about
foresight wisdom and theunexpected parallels between
Kung Fu and futures think.
My guest today is Alex Vignotti, a provocative voice in the
futures field, whose journey hastaken him from studying Kung Fu
(00:24):
and Asia to developing rigorousapproaches to foresight.
Alex is about to release agroundbreaking book with Penguin
called the Tao of Foresight,which takes a completely fresh
approach to teaching foresightconcepts through an entertaining
narrative set in a fictionalworld.
So, whether you're a seasonedfuturist or just curious about
how different ways to thinkabout tomorrow, this
(00:46):
conversation offers valuableinsights about blending Eastern
wisdom with futures thinking.
So let's dive in.
Welcome to Episode 129, the Taoof Foresight with Alex
Ferdinandi.
Alex, welcome to the podcast.
Speaker 3 (01:03):
Thanks, steve, pleasure of mine.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
It's great to have you here.
You know, before we started therecording, we were talking a
lot about just corporateforesight, just the journey of
futures.
So many in the futures fieldknow you.
You have some very, I would saystrong opinions about certain
things which I truly love andwe'll talk, we'll get into.
(01:28):
But your journey into futures,like what drew you to this field
?
How did you, how did you getinto this?
Everyone's always seems to bethe accidental futurist in a way
, so thanks for that question.
Speaker 3 (01:43):
It is.
It was accidental for me aswell.
I don't want to take so muchtime telling my life story.
It can be boring, so I'm goingto try to be concise.
Love for Asia and we're goingto come back to this, I presume,
(02:03):
later on in the interview.
It all started from a deep loveof Asia.
I was absolutely obsessed withAsian cultures, specifically
Chinese and Japanese cultures,when I was a kid.
I was very much into Kung Fu,kung Fu movies, bruce Lee,
jackie Chan, all that stuff.
And I took a bachelor degree inAsian studies, moved to
(02:34):
Shanghai in China, worked inShanghai for a few years as a
typical management consultantjob, boring job.
And when I was in Shanghaiafter a few years I realized
that's weird.
I'm very intellectual kind.
I don't enjoy the corporatelifestyle.
It's just not for me.
I would just wait eagerly tocome back home and read books,
you know, read scientific papers.
So I at some point realized thecorporate life is not for me.
(02:58):
I want to go back to academia.
So when I was there in ShanghaiI decided let's look for a
master's degree.
Maybe I can, you know, maybe Ican find a good master's degree
in this area of the worldbecause I want to stay in Asia.
And I looked around a bit andaccidentally as you said, it
always is accidentalAccidentally I found out that
(03:18):
there was a very cool master'sdegree in Taiwan entitled future
studies, which I had absolutelyno idea what it was.
And I go and research about itand I realized they pay
international students to do itbecause Taiwan wants to attract
international talent.
(03:38):
So that's a big plus.
And second, I realized it'ssuper cooler and he has all
these super cool soundingsubjects like career, futures,
the future of the world scenarioplanning, and it all sounded
amazing, especially because atthat point in time, as you can
imagine, I was probably like Idon't know 23, 24.
(04:00):
I had a thousand differentinterests, ranging from as
cultures and Asian philosophies,but also political science,
cognitive science, behavioraleconomics.
I would read all the sun dry,all I could find under the sun.
So I had a lot of differentinterests and this degree seemed
to be broad enough.
Right, it seemed to be umbrellarange.
(04:23):
You know, umbrella broad rangeenough for me to pursue wide
ranging themes.
So I went to Taiwan and I waslucky to be admitted on a
scholarship to pursue thisdegree and I love the fact that
this degree really gave you anintro to foresight and also all
(04:44):
the stuff you can do withForesight, which are pretty
ambitious things, right.
You can oh, you, change theword with policymaking, you
change the course of corporatevisions.
It's pretty wide, ambitiousstuff, right.
So I was very fascinated bythat and I love the program.
And I think this is one of thethings, one of the very strong
(05:07):
points of Foreset it doesattract people who really want
to change the word.
But on the other hand and wecan talk about this later a big
strength is usually also a bigweakness, because when you are
attracted to such big themes,why are you attracted to such
big themes?
Do you have to compensate forsome individual lack of
(05:28):
validation that you had?
We can go into the deep stufflater, but this program, right.
But at that point, obviously atthat point, I was young and
unaware of my the deeperdimensions of the self.
So I went all into it and I was.
I loved my time in Taiwan,especially because in Taiwan you
(05:49):
have this weird confluence ofEast and West and there is the
freedom of intellectuallucubration and speech that you
don't have in China, so it wasvery refreshing.
But yet you have Chineseculture and all the traditional
stuff that you cannot find aboutthe past the Chinese past and
the ancient wisdom of Asia youcan find in Taiwan connected
with future studies.
(06:10):
That was a very interestingexperience for me, right to go
through that master's degree,and that is where it all started
.
After that, I took my PhD inSingapore, focusing on
management and corporateforesight, and then I was a
professor for a couple of yearsand that's where I am now Right.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
Henry Suryawirawan, the School in Taiwan.
What was the name of it?
Speaker 3 (06:31):
Carlos Bernal Cum Cum University.
They still have programs whichare not exclusively focused on
futures.
I was lucky that when I tookthe master's, it was between
2015 and 2017.
They had a dedicated program.
It was literally a master'sdegree in future studies.
Now they have basicallycombined that degree with some
(06:55):
other degrees in education soyou can still take a degree.
I think it's either a master ora PhD, I can't remember well
but now it's more like futuresand education design, so it
veers into the educationalpolicy domain, so it's not
purely future studies.
When I took it back then it waspurely future studies but was
this with sohaya?
(07:16):
it was sohaya, one of the sohayawith one of the faculty members
.
Yes, sohaya was one of thefaculty members.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
So you have been deeply, deeply impacted with CLA
exercises, I'm sure.
Speaker 3 (07:30):
So that's quite the Well, I would say CLA was one of
the mainstream, the majorthreads that literally run all
over the program.
So in many classes we wouldcover CLA philosophy in practice
and other methods of course.
Speaker 2 (07:47):
And I'm a big fan of CLA.
For those on the show thatdon't know, it stands for causal
layer analysis.
It's a method to look at andcreate scenarios, but it's very
much systems thinking approachwith layers that go from litany
to like deep, deep, deep systemof the myth of things.
So I would highly recommendthat.
(08:08):
I'll probably do anotherepisode specifically on it.
I want to have Sahal on at somepoint and to talk about that,
but that's a that's a great wayto ground you.
I mean so you've donemanagement consulting and I
share that, that, that wonderfulexperience in this Academia I
haven't touched too much.
(08:28):
I live with an academic who doesa lot of great research.
So how client you know to kindof bring their injured, their
students in for for projects orrun that kind of stuff.
But really, like you know, gota bill, got a bread and butter,
(08:51):
got to deliver.
The appetite for a lot ofconsulting firms for futures is
not high because you know mostconsulting firms are reactionary
for clients.
You know they get paid a lot ofmoney to tell people what to do
tomorrow.
So how has that shaped yourapproach Like?
Speaker 3 (09:13):
when you teach and when you talk about the field
with people to kind of ground it.
Yeah Well, obviously I havebeen a very rigorous person.
So mostly academia has shapedmy mind in that whatever I do is
extremely rigorous in thatthere has to be a systematic
approach in it.
There has to be sources.
(09:33):
I never come up with stuff onmy desk and if I do so I will
say that clearly.
All sources are acknowledged,all sources that are
acknowledged.
There must be a foundation towhat I do.
So I think academia has shapedmy practice in the rigor of it.
The fact that I come from amanagement consulting standpoint
(09:57):
has also given the practicalapplication to it.
So at the end of the day, Ihave always thought of myself of
trying to strive the balancebetween practice and rigor,
because I have lived both.
You know I talk to executives,I know their concerns and yet I
also am in academia, so I knowthe importance of rigor.
So I always strive to achieve abalance between the two.
(10:22):
But it would surprise you thatthe thing that probably shaped
my way of doing, my modusoperandi, the most, is neither
academia, nor practice, normanagement consulting.
But it is Kung Fu, it ismartial arts.
Because at the end of the day,when I really go back to my
(10:42):
origin, my first real interests,at the end of the day, when I
really go back to my origin, myfirst real interests I came to
Asia to learn Kung Fu beforeeven before becoming a
management consultant.
I came to Asia to learn Kung Fuand I was literally learning
Kung Fu with a master's like theold school way, learning with
him for hours every morning,one-on-one, before even
(11:03):
realizing I couldn't go on withthat life because I didn't
produce any money.
So I then shifted to managementconsulting.
So that shaped my entire life,including my approach to
anything I do intellectually andpractically, including
Foresight, in that I amextremely serious about what I
do.
I don't know if you ever had aglimpse of a very solid kung fu
(11:27):
practice, which means that evenbefore fighting, you need to get
immersed in the fundamentalsfor years.
Basically, you need to learnstances and punches and you
cannot even start practicingwith an opponent, probably not
in the first two or three years.
You just got to be very seriousabout your commitment and the
fundamentals and that is a verydisciplined, serious approach.
(11:50):
So in everything I do, I takethings extremely seriously and
that is probably the thing thathas shaped my approach to
foresight the most, and that isalso one of the reasons why I
have been a provocateur, so tospeak, because I take the field
so seriously and I questionevery single thing and I have
(12:12):
been getting irritated, you know, by non-serious approaches.
That is, you know, if you wantto dig deep in.
Why am I a provocateur?
You know, why am I steeringdebates in the reason, rationale
and mode of practice of thefield?
Well, it's because I have thisvery martial approach to things,
if you wish.
So I think things like, if Isee a document that is not
(12:36):
properly attributed, or aprocess that is not systematic,
or anything that has not anyfoundations because we have
strong foundations in martialarts, right Then I question that
right, right.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
And just to go back, so with Kung Fu, I practice yoga
.
They're all practices.
There's a discipline to it,there's a rigor to it.
Right, like you're neverperfect.
There's a never perfection, oryou're in you're done right it's
always a constant practiceright.
Like you're never perfectthere's a never perfection.
Or you're done right it'salways a constant practice right
.
And the speed in which you doyoga is obviously faster than it
(13:11):
would Kung Fu.
But because you're allparallels and the rigor.
There is a rigor to thefoundations of foresight and
futures work, but it needs to beopen.
You need to learn the basics.
This is why I think a lot ofpeople that just call themselves
futurists, why you had talkedto there's a famous article.
(13:32):
He used a provocative wordabout there's it's.
I would just call it I.
I say I use the term fakefuturist.
So there are people who use theterm, but it's like, yes, you
actually have to do the toolsand the methods.
Um, yeah, joe lafour and I weretalking about this on another
on her episode about oh, Iactually have to.
(13:55):
There's there's things I do,but it's not one size fits all.
And I think with kung fu andplease correct me if I'm wrong
here is that you study the yearsof the foundation so that there
is almost a, there's a musclememory and a natural flow to the
that, and then when you learnto strike and do the other
things.
You have to improvise andobviously react to your opponent
(14:16):
to think too too many things,much like in a in a foresight
project or innovation project orany kind of not everything is
this.
You don't do the same thingevery single time.
You have to.
If it's, you know interviews.
But whatever it is, I think oneof the point, but if I remember
(14:38):
correctly correct if I'm wrongis that you wrote a paper about
I I don't know what.
I cannot remember the topic.
I should have had my titleshere.
My wife would be impressed if Ihad all the research notations.
But there was somebody thatcommented that disagreed with
you and I think you wrote apaper to counter his argument.
(14:58):
Yeah, Because that I don't knowhow much.
That's almost like.
It's like academic streetfighting, it's like that's the
equivalent of like like a, likea like a, uh, a recess yard.
You're like battle, like afterschool, like you know.
Let's go out in the back andyeah, so where did that like
(15:22):
tell us?
Can you that?
I think I found, and it wasawesome because you kind of took
it to the place where it's notlike you're just going to be on
a spout on social media and havea Twitter fight.
You actually were like you knowto your point about rigor.
You put it to the actualresearch you know.
You know if you'd like to gointo it.
I was just.
I found that a really greatexample.
I've never seen that, but itgoes to your point about rigor
(15:46):
and the academic part.
I thought it was just awesome.
Speaker 3 (15:53):
Yeah, it does happen in academia.
Actually, there are forumswhere it is designed as such.
In fact, the editor was up forit from the start.
Sometimes the editor looks atthe paper they get for a
publication and they suss.
They suss it beforehand.
They think, oh, this is aprovocative paper, it's going to
(16:14):
get responses and, by the way,if you want to reply to the
responses, that'd be fun Becauseat the end of the day, that's
also entertaining for theaudience, right?
So they see the boxing matchgoing on.
So it was design.
Actually, it was design fromthe start, that's great.
Speaker 2 (16:32):
Well, you know it was a great example.
You know, at the Dubai FutureForum I watched a video of you
and I encourage others to watchit.
Watch it.
One of the things that I've.
My work is to try and really,even though it's been around
this field has been around for50, 60 years it really hasn't
been standardized as like a realfield with roles and structure
(16:55):
and you know in your work incorporate foresight and
organizational foresight.
What do you think the the field,what do you think that we can
do to better establish this,like with credibility, standards
, models like what do you thinkneeds to be there in order for
it?
Because it can live or die inthe wrong or the right part of
an organization too.
Speaker 3 (17:15):
How does it get brought in when you've seen you
know, if you asked me thisquestion a year or two ago, I
would go into the details ofwhat are all the things that we
need to do, including, veryimportantly, facilitation.
You know you need to have someskills of facilitation.
You cannot just be dumped in aroom and start facilitating.
(17:40):
It's not something you learn byteaching yourself and you need
to be aware of the literatureand all that stuff.
It's not something you learn byteaching yourself and you need
to be aware of the literatureand all that stuff.
So I would go into greatdetails into that.
But if you ask me now, becauseI have taken a very Zen tends to
(18:12):
be very bitter when rigor isnot there in others' work.
So that is obviouslyadvantageous in that I see the
weaknesses and the strengths,but it can be also a lot of bad
energy, right, because it'salways about oh, why are they
not getting it?
It's like the bitterness isalways there.
So now I'm taking more of a Zenapproach, more laid back about
all things, and my reply now isyou know, we just need to
(18:34):
distinguish between futurism andforesight.
That would be a great start,because standardizing is
actually far away, like we can'teven distinguish between what
futurism is and foresight is,how can we even talk about
standardization?
So my answer to that questionis let's try to work on a basic
(18:56):
this is a very 101, one to onesorry 101 concept which is basic
common understanding of.
There is a difference betweenforesight, which is a systematic
approach to the futures andusing the futures to take better
decisions in the present, andfuturism, which is speculation,
not systematic.
(19:16):
Maybe there's a bit of sciencefiction there.
Futurism is just another animalright, and now there is not
such a distinction.
People do foresight and callthemselves futurist, which in my
opinion recalls futurism morethan foresight.
A lot of people do futurism andthen they call themselves
(19:39):
foresight practitioners.
It's a mess.
So I just aim, you know, Iwould just aim for that first.
That's the first step.
Then, when that is achieved,when there is a very you know
widespread understanding of thedifference, so people decide to
do either one or the other, thenwe can talk about
(19:59):
standardization.
We cannot even I don't thinkwe're even close to
standardizing right now.
Speaker 2 (20:04):
Yeah, it is a journey , I agree with you.
I remember I don't think we'reeven close to standardizing
right now.
Yeah, it is a journey, I agreewith you.
I remember I think it was onFuturePod you, when you were
going to you talked about thedifference between that and you
were looking at.
I distinguish between futuresresearch and futures practice.
So, like to your point aboutforesight strategic foresight I
just think it's named badly.
I think we have a brandingproblem.
Personally, as well.
(20:25):
As a product.
It's fun to build.
You know I build products.
I'm.
You know I make software.
Like I do a lot of brandingwork and you know we have a, we
have a, we have a, we have anaming and branding problem.
Yes, it is.
There's brand confusion, thereis brand dilution, there's all
the the bad things that go with.
You know brand disasters, and Idon't know what it would take
(20:50):
because there's so manyfractious elements of it, but at
least for me, my goal was totry and get some standards as to
how people might bring it intoan organization and hire people
and and and and fund that youknow, and it's like you talk,
you know, you we've talked aboutrigor.
We talked, you've talked a lotabout.
You know your passion with kungfu, which kind of which leads
(21:11):
me to this in the end, the zenstate, which is your book, which
I find fascinating.
You know a lot of books outthere.
Pretty much all of them areabout methods, tools,
philosophies great, they'regreat, they're great, they all
have their place.
But you wrote, or it's comingnow.
You've written a book the Tao ofForesight.
When I saw that and it's likeit's illustrations, I was like
(21:36):
what it's like Zen and the artof motorcycle maintenance.
It's like it's going to be thiskind of philosophical like.
So for with a book, you know,when you get a publisher you
kind of have to have yourlogline pitch Like what.
What is your kind of loglinepitch for the book?
Like what is what is that?
Speaker 3 (21:57):
That's such a question.
Well, the pitch is that?
Speaker 2 (22:00):
That's what I do man?
Speaker 3 (22:01):
That's what I do.
The pitch how do I present thebook in an elevator?
So the pitch is that there is amaster Imagine a master of Kung
Fu with great powers and themaster doesn't teach Kung Fu, he
teaches foresight.
That's the whole idea.
So it all came from, as youknow, my deep love for Asian
(22:26):
cultures and philosophies andKung Fu and all that stuff
connected with the idea that, asyou just said, foresight is
usually communicated very badlywith a typical textbook and it's
boring, right.
So you know, if you take thesetwo ingredients together, hey, I
really love Asian stuff, asiancultures, kung Fu, martial arts
(22:51):
and B foresight is so boring toread.
There is no exciting book.
How about combining the two?
How about writing a book thatis an edutainment novel, which
is memorable, which is fun,which is entertaining, using the
archetype of a master of kungfu and a student, but instead
the master of kung fu?
(23:12):
He has some great superpowers,but they're not kung fu related.
Actually, what he teaches, whatis kung fu style is not, you
know, tai chi or hungar or winchis foresight.
That's the idea, right?
And actually you would thinkhow in the world did you make
the connection?
These two things are completelydifferent.
(23:32):
What is the parallelism, whatis the commonality that actually
turns out and this I learnedafter a long time.
I realized after a long timethe two things are very much
connected.
No wonder I've been interestedin both, because they have a
very strong connection andobviously this connection can be
(23:53):
declined in many layers.
But to summarize, to get to thepoint, they're all about
managing uncertainty.
Think about it when you arefighting an opponent, you are in
one of the most uncertainstates.
You could be literally facingdeath right.
So how do you manage thatuncertainty?
You need to have a system, andthat system is a fighting style
(24:15):
or a fighting technique, a setof fighting techniques.
That's in martial arts.
When you're practicingforesight.
As a leader of an organization,you are in an extremely
uncertain environment where yourorganization could go bust
literally in one year if youdon't take the right decisions.
So how do we decide so thatyour organization survives and
(24:36):
thrives?
Well, you need to have a system, and that system has also tools
and techniques.
They're not punches, they'renot kicks.
They are different.
There are not kicks.
They are different.
They're scenario planning,they're horizon scanning and so
on.
So there is a very strongcommonality.
Speaker 2 (24:50):
And by digging deep into that commonality, the book
idea came about so there'scharacters, two characters jingo
jigo, chico chico and masterfoo jigo yeah so how they and
how do they convey, like youtalked about this, like
conveying the, the principles,like do do you walk?
(25:14):
Is the the student kind ofstarting on the path?
Is that kind of like theirinitial okay, what's is there
like a hero's journey in this?
Is there like what is thejourney that they take?
Okay, there is a hero's journey.
Speaker 3 (25:27):
Obviously I wanted to make the book entertaining and
engaging, so riveting in a way,because the danger of writing a
book like this and at thebeginning I was actually falling
into that risk the danger ofwriting a book like this is it's
going to be separate chapters.
In each chapter there is adialogue between master and
student and the master teachesthe student a principle of
(25:47):
foresight, using Asian wisdom,and that's it.
That's interesting.
But there is no pressure, thereis no interest or, you know,
push for the reader to go onbecause there is no narrative.
So then, later on, when I waswriting the book, I realized
push for the reader to go onbecause there is no narrative.
So then later on, when I waswriting the book, I realized,
okay, I need to create anarrative.
So then I went and built Plot ahero's journey.
(26:11):
So the journey starts with thestudent, the disciple.
He's got a problem, he needs tosave his village in danger and
he needs to find help.
And so he goes up to themountain to find a master to
help him out, to learn somepractice, to help him out, to
save his village in danger.
And he goes and finds Master Fuand then he starts learning the
(26:35):
techniques of foresight.
Through 12 chapters, includingthe epilogues and the
introduction, I think 12 or 13chapters, he learns all the
techniques of foresight.
In every chapter he learns anew technique.
But this occurs while going on ahero's journey.
So he has a lot of obstacles hegoes through.
(26:56):
You know there is an evilvillain who is trying to get the
foresight knowledge and use itfor some unscrupulous intent.
So he has to prevent that fromhappening.
And the villain has sort of aright man who is a Kung Fu
fighter that he needs to fight.
And so there are many differentfights over the course of the
(27:18):
book and he will enroll somehelp.
So he will enroll some, somebandit or another master of kung
fu who turns out he teachesscience fiction, prototyping to
get the help he needs to solvethe riddle, so to speak, and
eventually crack the wisdom of,but also save his village with
(27:42):
it.
That's the whole idea.
Speaker 2 (27:47):
I love that it reminds me of, so this
absolutely could be translatedto a children's book.
Speaker 3 (27:59):
Totally, and it was designed.
It was designed as somethingthat can be transformed into
different media, especially afilm or a playbook or a cartoon.
In fact, the next step for meis to try to pitch it to Disney,
to make a movie out of it or,for example, to translate it
(28:19):
into a storybook.
So there are different mediawhere you can.
You know a manga, for example.
You can represent it.
So yeah, you're totally spot on.
Speaker 2 (28:30):
I think that you could also, if you haven't
talked, to Peter Bishop over atTeach the Future.
Speaker 3 (28:39):
For example, you could do that.
Speaker 2 (28:41):
Yeah, like that.
This would be a great book corecurriculum for like to do for
teenagers or kids.
Like to to get the kind of it,make it accessible right Instead
of the actual and the thingsbeyond that.
Speaker 3 (28:55):
But I want to clarify one thing.
But the book is often very,very amenable to be read by
young people because there'sthis very engaging narrative.
You know, the typical 21 yearsold or even 15 years old would
not pick a foresight textbook ifhe goes in a bookstore, but he
would pick the Tao of Foresight,which is such an interesting,
(29:17):
you know, a novel.
So that's for sure.
But the book is also designedfor adults because it depends on
which stage of life you read it.
You will get what you need,Because the fact that the book
uses quotes of wisdom fromTaoism, Zen, Buddhism and
Confucianism makes a lot of thelearnings of the students quite
(29:41):
deep.
So actually it's about mindset,it's about mindfulness, it's
about philosophy, the essence ofpractice, it's about reaching
one limit, it's about findingpurpose.
So it's a book that it willgive you what you need at
whatever stage of life you are.
You know, if you are 15 yearsold, what you get out of it is
probably the engaging narrative.
If you are 45, what you get outof it?
(30:03):
Oh, these are interestingquotes about what is the meaning
of life, what is the practiceyou will focus your life on, to
know yourself better.
So there are different levels.
You can take the book.
It's a bit like Siddhartha, soto speak.
Speaker 2 (30:21):
Well, I keep thinking .
There's a couple of things.
It, if I was in a pitch meetingwith this, would be um, one,
you'd want to make this a series, because this is volume one,
like it's the journey, thehero's journey to learn, that
you could continue the story asthey maybe go through another,
(30:43):
to other villages or otherplaces and learn and apply what
they've learned.
So there's a volume two, three,four.
I mean this could be a ongoingseries, right?
So that's where also the pitchwith Disney, like it's not just
like a you know one, like youcould do it as a movie,
Absolutely, you could do it as amovie, absolutely you could do
it as a series, ongoing you know, series one is the journey, and
(31:06):
each, each book could be aseason, um, but it it creates
accessibility.
I think of really good bookslike history, uh, revealed or um
there's or hidden history.
Then there's the um, the Isurvived books.
There's ones for kids, likepeople, the kids have survived
disasters and it just gets itaccessible to like what happens
(31:30):
in those situations.
And did you, do you find apublisher for this?
Did you pitch that or is thisyour self-publishing?
How are you going through that?
What's your, what's the planfor this like?
Is there a publisher that'shelping you or what are you
doing with that?
Speaker 3 (31:44):
Yeah, I was very lucky to be to be published with
Penguin, so it's going to bepublished with Penguin in the
next few months and it obviouslyis a very rigorous process and
they go through, you know, veryrigorous structural editing,
then copy editing, thentypesetting.
So I'm very happy.
They're really helping tosolidify the narrative and that
(32:08):
will probably take a few moremonths.
So I think at some point inspring 2025, it will be
published.
I hope to be, I hope to have adate, a precise date you know,
soon, and after that happens, Iwill then do as you said.
You know, depending on theresponse as well, I will think
about either a sequel oradaptations and, by the way, as
(32:30):
you correctly noted, the book isopen to sequels because, in
order for me to design the book,I had to do a bit of world
building, right.
So, I had to create a newuniverse.
Speaker 2 (32:41):
I was just about to ask you the world building
process which is wonderful.
Speaker 3 (32:45):
There is actually a very deep, there was a very deep
world building process.
So I had to create a new world,which is called the land of
Pangu.
By the way, there's a Chinesesymbology there, because Pangu
in Chinese mythology is thecreator of all things.
So it's like a, it's a demigod,it's a creator.
And so in this land there arethree villages.
(33:06):
One is the village where thekid is born, and that is the
village in danger.
Then there's another village,which is the village state that
has a boss or an evil villainthat is trying to get to the Tao
of foresight and use thatknowledge or wisdom for evil
purposes.
And then there's anothervillage state which is mentioned
(33:28):
in the book but is notcompletely elaborated.
So there is room for the sequelto happen in that third part of
the land of Fangu.
So there was a design in this,as you will see when you read it
the land of Fango.
Speaker 2 (33:40):
So there was a design in this, as you will see when
you read it.
So your process to kind ofclose the loop on the DAO, of
course, at least for now, h-u-bcontinued.
But what was?
Did you use CLA?
Did you use other methods?
How did you do?
What was your process to doworld building Like when you
thought of the greater macrolevel?
(34:02):
Then you created the eyeless.
Just tell me, I don't want toafraid of me, kind of infuse
anything.
I was just I would love for theaudience to understand because
that is such a key part of beinga futurist.
You can just generate ascenario.
You have to do some world buildof any stage in order to
communicate.
My favorite part is designfiction, so I have to create the
(34:23):
people of the future.
So there's an inhabited.
They inhabit that you know.
You just can't just inhabit ascenario.
You inhabit the world.
So, like for you, what was thatprocess?
How did that go?
Like, where did you start?
What?
What did you do?
Did you are you an artist?
Did you?
Did you journal?
Like, what was that?
Speaker 3 (34:44):
Thanks for that question.
It was a messy process becauseI've never done it Messy.
So I started writing the bookwith an outline of the plot and
I wrote the first two chapters.
And I actually think this is agood process, because the
outline of the plot cannot beperfect until you start writing
(35:06):
it.
So if you want to simplify it,I actually wrote the plot first
of the whole book, then I wrotethe first two chapters and then
I stopped and started reflectingAll right, now, if this
continues, now I've seen thereis a plot, I've seen there is
two chapters, it's doable,there's a plausibility involved.
Now, how do I enhance the depthof it?
(35:30):
So about chapter two or threewhen I was writing chapter three
, I started thinking more deeplyabout the background of the
character.
So I wrote characters profilesand then I wrote their past,
because they need to have a pastbefore what happens in the book
.
And then from there I realized,oh, if they need to have a past
(35:51):
, there needs to be some world.
So then I went to and Idesigned the world and I divided
the world in different statesand I created a map world.
And I divided the word indifferent states and I created a
map.
In fact, the first thing youwill see when you open.
The book is the map of the landof Congo, of the fictional land
where this happens.
It's a bit of a treasure huntfeel.
Speaker 2 (36:10):
That's great.
Speaker 3 (36:12):
So, and from there I stopped, and then I kept writing
.
Speaker 2 (36:15):
It's kind of like opening middle.
It's like opening Lord of theRings and seeing the map of
middle earth.
Yes, yes, yes.
Speaker 3 (36:21):
Yes, yes, yes, yes.
And so when I had a basic worldbuilding process done, I then
went back to the book andfinished writing.
I wrote maybe a chapter a monthand then, when I finished
writing, I went back to theworld building process and I
asked myself, given thisnarrative that we now have
complete, what is missing?
(36:43):
So maybe there was, you know,some events that were missing
that I had to add here and there, or maybe some features of the
characters were not emphasizedenough.
I need to exaggerate them a bitto make them more on point.
Maybe this needs to be a bitmore villain, a bit more evil,
maybe this needs to be a bitmore ignorant to create
archetypes, right?
So that's basically the process.
(37:04):
So I started with a plot, roughplot, then I wrote a bit of it,
then I went back to the worldbuilding, then I wrote the whole
thing and then I went back tothe world building again.
But this is not intended.
This came out of me trying todo it basically.
Speaker 2 (37:19):
But you now have a foundation in which you know, I
see such a rich universe HarryPotter, you know, star Wars, I
mean anything that's got, thathas a greatness attached to it,
has a universe, has a worldbuilding, has been built for
that.
You know, this is kind of, youknow, as I, this is such an
(37:41):
exciting.
I cannot wait to read this bookand I can't wait for my son.
You know I'll get my son toread it and I think it's just
going to be a core part of anyforesight curriculum.
I just see it because it's just, it's just an accessible way to
kind of especially theone-on-one classes, right.
It's like like you want to getpeople just to have some fun,
right, instead of just the rigorof it, you want to enjoy.
(38:04):
You're thinking about fun thingsand you made a comment earlier.
It's like the bigger things,like why people get into this
field.
It's the double-sided.
Well, knives are two-sided, butit is a challenge because if
you want to attack those bigproblems, there's a reason too.
And it's like to your pointabout rigor, it's the planning,
(38:26):
or dreaming, versus doing so.
Very much about the execution.
I think that's why I gravitatetoward the, the design, futures,
the backcasting, like theputting the things into action,
bringing people, bringing thepeople who really are about the
present, and it's like there isa challenge with I call the
tyranny of the present, becausepeople can can't even
(38:49):
extrapolate, like if you thinkof like I have, I collect
futures cards and I think ofstuff from like the 1930s, about
the future or like different,oh, and you see things there's
like a video phone.
Or I always use the Blade Runnerexample.
It's like he has a video phonebut he has to go to a phone
booth where it's like it's thetyranny of the present right and
(39:09):
a lot of people are afraid Ithere was a great class.
I took at University of Houstonwhere I did my work, is um,
julie Rush did a class on thepsychology of futures, because
there are people that are afraidof thinking that far ahead and
I feel like this book't want topresuppose anything kind of let
you talk about what.
(39:46):
What are your next steps?
Where you're in, you're insunny arctic level, singapore.
You know arch, you know thearctic cool of singapore, um, so
, which I know.
So where are you staying there?
What, what are your?
What are your plans with?
I mean, with this, is it what's, what's?
What are your plans next?
You've been making this shift.
Speaker 3 (40:07):
Thanks for asking, steve.
Yeah, so I I I'm going to seguefrom the book to this to my
answer to this.
So the book was obviously avery transformative experience
for me, because I'm an academic,you know, I'm a consultant, and
then yet I wrote this novel.
(40:27):
It's quite different, right?
It's quite something thatdoesn't get done in academia,
quite a different animal, quiteunusual for an academic to do
that.
And it was one of the mostliberating thing I've ever done.
So I don't know how much you arefamiliar with the peer review
(40:48):
publication process.
It can be some of the most.
It's some of the mostexcruciating writing process or
efforts.
You can literally put your mindon earth and I always resented
the pressures and thelimitations and strictures of
the peer review process inacademia.
(41:08):
How is writing so limited byall these extra and over
rigorous process?
Sometimes rigor can get out ofhand, right.
And then I I got down to writethis novel and it was absolutely
liberating because it came outof me.
It was very natural.
(41:29):
It was very natural for me towrite it and to edit it and to
polish it and then, even withpenguin, the process that I'm
being put through with penguin,it's rigorous, rigorous, you
know it's systematic and theyare providing very constructive
feedback to improve thenarrative, but what they do is
(41:50):
they try to get the best out ofwhat you're meant to do.
They don't try to fix you in away that you comply to an
academic system that is, I wouldsay, obsolete.
So it was very liberating forme to go through this and
through this transformativeexperience of writing the book,
I realized, huh, I have aninclination for writing this
(42:13):
edutainment stuff.
I am much more of a writer thanof a scientist, writer than of
a scientist.
So I decided that I had tocontinue doing that, literally.
After this experience, I cannotgo back to writing normal
scientific articles.
You know, obviously, for my jobas a professor, I need to write
(42:33):
a scientific paper here andthere every few years to, you
know, to check the box of tenure.
Okay, that could be done, butthat's not my main thing.
I realized my main thing.
My main calling is to writethese edutainment stories, to
bring the wisdom of the East, tobring the wisdom of Asia,
wisdom of foresight, the wisdomof disciplines that I care about
, to a large audience using somefun methodology, some fun
(43:00):
medium of communication.
So I will continue.
I will continue to writeentertainment novels like this,
and I'm already writing a secondnovel, actually, which is very
similar to the first.
It's not a sequel to the Tao ofForesight.
This is another novel whichactually talks about very deep
wisdom, very deep stuff, justlike the Dao Por said.
(43:21):
But in this case it's aboutfinding meaning and one's
purpose, and it does so througha story of another boy who goes
through a very interestingexperience in China.
So it's more of a current eventsort of novel.
So I will keep on doing thesethings, and if that includes a
(43:44):
sequel or adaptations of the DAOforesight at some point in the
future, all the better.
But my focus has shifted fromforesight to being a
communicator of wisdom, so tospeak.
Speaker 2 (43:58):
A communicator of wisdom.
So you still will teach.
Obviously, you're gainfullyemployed employed.
It's hard to get those jobs andkeep you know, and you've
achieved a lot through that.
But it seems like you've made anew space and the ratio of
which you'll focus is definitelyyes.
So there, yeah.
So you and I still can beprovocative about foresight, but
(44:21):
still to the point, you found abeautiful kind of taking that
leap.
Um, you know, and you have areally unique perspective.
(44:44):
You know, looking, it'll be 20and this will come out early
part of 2020 you know, and aswe're not going to be, inundated
with these horrible predictionuh, blog posts, um.
But let's just take the fieldlike.
Let's look at the next decade,though I'll put our futurist hat
on.
Where do you think we're headedthough, with the field in
(45:06):
general?
As you see it, as you've seenit change, and I think we've
seen more change in the lastfive years than we did in the
previous 15.
But I'm curious to get yourthoughts on that.
So I'm happy for this question.
Speaker 3 (45:18):
I don't know if you're going curious to get your
your thoughts on that.
Like so, I'm happy for thisquestion I.
I don't know if you're going tobe surprised by the answer, but
my answer usually to this kindof questions is if, if I comply
to the tenets of foresight, Ican't reply because, requiring.
Speaker 2 (45:38):
Now, that's the Alex answer I expected.
Speaker 1 (45:41):
I, I was a was a tricky question, but I didn't
follow it with a trick.
Speaker 3 (45:46):
So some people do reply.
I do acknowledge that somepeople fall into the temptation
of replying, which is a verystrong temptation, but I don't.
I don't because, again, goingback to rigor, but not over
rigor there is one thing thathas to be respected, which is we
(46:06):
cannot know the future, and anyprojection about the future is
an attempt to conquer it.
So if I answer that questionand say what I believe, which is
probably biased andopinion-driven based on the
events I attended, based on mybackground, if I answer that
question, some of the listenerswill be, in turn, skewed by my
(46:30):
biased experience, and so I amnot paying any justice to the
systematic nature of Foreset,which would be.
I'm not going to reply to thequestion.
I'm going to conduct a rigorousscenario planning approach to
look at all the possible futuresof the field and then go back
to the present with someinsights not probabilities with
(46:53):
some insights that drive mydecisions right now, regardless
of likelihood and probability,right.
So that's my answer to thatquestion.
I think that question cannot beanswered by anybody who claims
to be somebody who is solidabout the foundations of
foresight and, by the way, thisquestion will come back in the
(47:15):
book and the master will chidethe student for replying this
question.
I said what are you doing?
Will chide the student forreplying this question.
I said what are you doing?
I'm going to hit your head witha stick.
If you try to answer aprediction question, you can't
in a very Zen fashion.
Speaker 2 (47:31):
I would expect nothing less.
It wasn't meant to be a trickquestion, but I love your answer
and I will say in pure futuristconsulting sense it depends,
because there are many possiblefutures, right, so it depends
who you are right, AbsolutelyDepending on the stakeholder
(47:52):
you're responding to or theresources and capability of your
organization, what you need topay attention to and what is
your future right?
Speaker 3 (48:00):
Different futures for different no-transcript.
Speaker 2 (48:12):
Hold on a sec no problem sorry, no problem right
(48:32):
my wife's putting my son, I'lljust cut all this, um, yeah, so
yeah, because we, um, you know,let's flip that.
Then, for those coming into thefield, what would you, what
would you give advice on?
Just entering this?
They, they found this, theyrealized that, not just calling
(48:55):
themselves a futurist, but theyactually have to do things to
become a future, like they haveto learn, they have to study.
Very cool, obviously, startingwith reading your book.
That's a great, that's a great,uh, great piece of advice I'd
give them.
But what, um, what advice wouldI?
Speaker 3 (49:12):
would give.
I would say I don't have advice, because all the advice I was
ever given as turned out to behorrible, so I don't have advice
.
I can share my story and youare free to pick anything or
nothing out of it that is usefulor nonsense, but the only thing
(49:35):
I can say is I think it's veryimportant to know why you're
doing it, why are you doing it,and by why I mean to investigate
deeply into the differentlayers of reasons of why you're
drawn to the field, because thisis a field, as I was discussing
with some major experts thatwere asking me and concerned
(49:57):
about my reason to leave why areyou leaving?
So I was discussing them.
The reason of leaving for meare entirely personal.
There is nothing about thefield that made me leave.
The reason is I realized thisis not my calling in life, made
me leave.
The reason is I realized thisis not my calling in life.
But there are things about thefield that sped up, you know,
(50:18):
that made that decision quicker,and some of those reasons that
made my decision quicker arethat the field is in a deep
state of trauma.
It's in a huge psychologicaltrauma.
It's collective trauma of notknowing its position in the
world and not wanting to discussit, possibly because it's
(50:39):
self-select people, you know,because you don't need a degree,
you don't need credentials tobe a futurist or a force of
practitioner, however you wantto call it.
So because of that, I guess thefield is automatically
selecting people who are drawninto the self-taught domain.
And because of that, what kindof people are we driving in?
Right, maybe those are thepeople who want to cut corners,
(51:04):
or maybe not, but in any case,there are questions to be asked
about the role of the field andwhy we're having the same debate
about what we are and what wedo.
We're having the same debatefor basically 78 years.
So the only thing I realizedthis is again my story.
Take what you need out of it.
(51:25):
Be very clear about the deeppsychological reasons why you
are doing this what, for whomand everything.
Yeah, that's great.
Speaker 2 (51:37):
What are you driven by?
It's a great.
It's a great answer.
Right, the field will change,you know.
So, as we kind of get towardour kind of wrapping things up.
You know, you know when you'restarting this, you know you
started your career.
I mean, you're giving thisreally good perspective and
advice to people like why, whatdo you, what do you wish?
(51:59):
You knew at the beginning ofthis, like somebody had told you
yeah, yeah, I wish I knew why Iwas getting into it.
Speaker 3 (52:08):
Going back to the first question you asked me,
when I first got into it Ithought this would be my calling
because it was so wide rangingand so ambitious.
These big themes, you know,with Foresight you talk about
climate change, change the world, change the mindset of people,
(52:40):
change the vision of a country,change the narrative of the
globe basically these are veryambitious themes.
But why are you doing suchambitious themes?
Why are you focusing on suchambitious themes?
In my case, I wasovercompensating, a guilt, a
shame of not having shown myselfI was smart enough.
My mother never told me I'msmart.
I had to prove myself.
(53:01):
I needed validation to showmyself I was smart.
So the whole idea of pursuing avery ambitious field that can
help you change the world for me, ambitious field that can help
you change the world for meactually and I didn't know at
that time was just a cover-up tovalidate my intelligence,
(53:25):
because it's much better to tellyourself you are pursuing great
things rather than beingashamed at the fact you didn't
have a validation and so you'redoubting your own intelligence.
So then I went through thatprocess and I realized I don't
need to prove myself.
I'm smart.
Okay, now let's focus on what Ilove to do.
And then the DAO foresight cameup.
So now I know what I am andwhat I love to do.
(53:48):
I don't need to impress someexecutives in a room.
In fact, I don't want to do anymore workshops around the world
and visit a lot of corporateoffices.
I'd rather talk to people aboutreal things.
Busy people, not offices.
Busy places, not at night.
Speaker 2 (54:07):
Conversations just like you and I are having.
This is the best part.
Speaker 3 (54:10):
Yeah, not like what's the value chain of your company
?
Tell me what have you you know?
All this is the best part yeah,not like what's the value chain
of your company.
Tell me what have you you know?
All this is very dry and it allalways not always, but very
often covers up some deeperfears and trauma about the way
we manage the future.
So I might still talk about theway we manage the future, the
(54:31):
way we manage uncertainty, in myYouTube videos or in my novels
in the future, but I will nottake any more scenario planning,
workshops or projects.
Speaker 2 (54:43):
I think you can be the mindset futurist Because I
think the thing is futuriststhink in different ways.
There's a lot of different wayspeople approach it and the way
that their thinking modes are.
People say it attracts a lot ofdifferent ways people approach
it and the way that theirthinking modes are.
People have you say it attractsa lot of different.
Like self-taught I wasself-taught for a long time, a
lot of books, but I also wentand did the formal academic
because I wanted to deepen mywork and just expose myself to
(55:05):
things that I couldn't get youknow any other way.
Speaker 3 (55:10):
So there are many different ways, yeah I'll give
you I'll give you.
I'll give you an example.
I was talking with a friend whois also in Foresight just a few
weeks ago about my decision toleave the field, and it's very
difficult usually to describewhat you're going through when
you go through careertransitions.
So I was trying to put this inwords and telling him you know,
(55:31):
I just wanted to.
I wanted to take a step backand maybe write novels, and
maybe in the future I will stillbe involved in foresight, but
in a different way.
And so he said oh, I know whatyou want to do.
You want to gain some fame withyour books so that eventually
you will be hired back by theCEO of McKinsey to be his
(55:53):
personal foresight assistant.
And then I thought oh, this isan interesting metaphor, but
actually what I'd rather do isto write a novel which does not
talk about foresight, but someof the characters have a
foresight mindset.
And then the CEO of McKinsey isreading that novel on the
toilet in the morning and helikes the character in the novel
(56:15):
.
Speaker 2 (56:15):
So that's a different metaphor.
That's a heck of an image thereto have the managing, the
global managing partner on the,can you know?
on the toilet on the loo reading, but you know those are the,
those are those kinds ofinspirational books.
You know the mindset of offorce you, you know, and how you
think about it and how youapproach it.
That's the kind of stuff thatmillions of people read, versus
(56:39):
actual practitioner tools, whichis necessary.
It's kind of book that you know, I do, I do, but it's like I'm
inspired by that and you know itmakes me think about.
You know how I want tocommunicate this, as I, as I
were to be a communicator ofthis, of this subject, and feel
so it is.
You found this calling.
You know, if you're lookingback, you're young, decades,
(57:03):
we're like and like how wouldyou want the impact to to be?
Like you want what do you wanthow you want this work to be
remember?
Like when people are talkingabout you, like your family,
your friends or just the world,people that you've touched.
Like how do you?
want to.
Yeah, yeah, it's just like foryou.
Like, when people look, whenyou look back on a, on a life
(57:23):
well lived in a career, you know, writing career and you know,
and the things, you, you kind oflook at it with this.
This was great, you know, it'slike I've done.
You feel that you feel thatinside you, yeah well, yeah,
what do you?
Why do you want people to thinkof that?
What do you want people?
Speaker 3 (57:40):
that's such an interesting question.
I think it's such a questionthat everybody has to think
right, and it's, in a way, aquestion that is colored by a
foresight mindset, becauseyou're really thinking about
what in the future you want.
Let's go, let's go and look atthe end of your life.
That's an awesome question andI have been thinking about this
for a long time and obviouslynone of us has a 100 clear view
(58:02):
of that.
But my if not 100, but stillclarifying in the process of
clarifying answer to that wouldbe I would love to be that
person who made wisdom fun.
You know that person who oh,that's the author or YouTube
personality or TV personalitywho made all this deep stuff fun
(58:24):
and entertaining, and I want tojust go back to the video or
the books that he produced aftera heavy workday, you know,
after a horrible work day.
You know, after a horrible workday, what I want to do is just
want to.
I want to read this fun book,or I want to watch this fun
YouTube video or fun docuseries,and I will be entertained.
I will, I may laugh, and yet Iwill also get some wisdom out of
(58:48):
it.
That's what I want to do, yeah.
Speaker 2 (58:51):
That's wonderful and I, I think you'll, I absolutely
believe you'll have that.
I think of people who have hadimpact on um others.
One like JK Rowling comes to mymind, because before you know
when she wrote it.
It's one thing.
Harry Potter's a wonderfulstory, but it got kids back to
(59:12):
reading.
Like so many kids became avidreaders, reader right and to and
they're adults and they'vegrown up right it.
They brought that.
Uh, george lucas brought in theability to think, um
differently about a future, thethe used future.
(59:34):
Right, everything is very wornright.
It's.
It's a how people think aboutscience fiction instead of this
clean, because I think of moviesright before that, like logan's
run or other thing, oreverything was pristine right.
Instead of that, that usedfuture.
Speaker 3 (59:47):
And then I think of the 90s where, yeah, the
narrative between the fight, theever happening fight between
evil and good, and it's deep inthat as well.
So there's some deep stuff aswell.
Speaker 2 (01:00:01):
And here is Journey, of course, campbell's Journey,
and you know, when I think ofthe mid 90s, there were
directors, like you know,independent artists like Robert
Rodriguez, jon Favreau, KevinSmith.
They showed you could make afilm for very little.
And even now, like I look atgenerative AI and Sora and all
(01:00:21):
this, like AI filmmaking, whichI've been experimenting with,
the ability to make content andcreate is amazing and it is to
your point.
It allows the artists to build.
And I hope that for you.
Thank you yeah.
I would love for it to close, ofcourse.
Where do people find you?
(01:00:45):
How do they preorder the book?
You know, you've got yourYouTube channel, you've got your
Substack, you've got a lot ofplaces people can find you.
So could you help how?
Speaker 3 (01:00:57):
do people kind of get to know Alex more.
Linkedin is a place where I amrelatively active my YouTube
channel.
I am pivoting it to this newdirection of entertaining wisdom
, so to speak, which may or maynot include elements of
foresight.
And there is a mailing list, sothere is basically a Google
(01:01:19):
form that the audience can fillup and put their email in it so
that they will receiveinformation about the book.
Maybe we can put this in theshow notes, absolutely, because
so now we don't have a date, butthe date will be announced
literally in the next few weeks.
So chances are that by the timethis podcast is out, we'll know
a date and if you subscribe tothis email list, you'll know the
(01:01:42):
date of publication.
And along with that, I willarrange some discount codes as
well, special deals for the book.
Speaker 2 (01:01:51):
Okay, great.
Well, alex, I know we'll haveyou on.
I'd love to have you back onright after the launch or short
after and see how you knowreactions and kind of talk about
you know your experiences.
Speaker 3 (01:02:01):
It'd be lovely.
Yes, definitely.
Thanks so much, reallyappreciate it.
Speaker 2 (01:02:05):
Yeah, thanks for being on.
Alex, appreciate it.
Thanks to you.
Speaker 3 (01:02:09):
Take care.
Welcome to the Think Forward Show.
Let's explore the futuretogether.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
Welcome, friends and fellow big thinkers.
Today we're diving into afascinating conversation about
foresight wisdom and theunexpected parallels between
Kung Fu and futures think.
My guest today is Alex Vignotti, a provocative voice in the
futures field, whose journey hastaken him from studying Kung Fu
(00:24):
and Asia to developing rigorousapproaches to foresight.
Alex is about to release agroundbreaking book with Penguin
called the Tao of Foresight,which takes a completely fresh
approach to teaching foresightconcepts through an entertaining
narrative set in a fictionalworld.
So, whether you're a seasonedfuturist or just curious about
how different ways to thinkabout tomorrow, this
(00:46):
conversation offers valuableinsights about blending Eastern
wisdom with futures thinking.
So let's dive in.
Welcome to Episode 129, the Taoof Foresight with Alex
Ferdinandi.
Alex, welcome to the podcast.
Speaker 3 (01:03):
Thanks, steve, pleasure of mine.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
It's great to have you here.
You know, before we started therecording, we were talking a
lot about just corporateforesight, just the journey of
futures.
So many in the futures fieldknow you.
You have some very, I would saystrong opinions about certain
things which I truly love andwe'll talk, we'll get into.
(01:28):
But your journey into futures,like what drew you to this field
?
How did you, how did you getinto this?
Everyone's always seems to bethe accidental futurist in a way
, so thanks for that question.
Speaker 3 (01:43):
It is.
It was accidental for me aswell.
I don't want to take so muchtime telling my life story.
It can be boring, so I'm goingto try to be concise.
Love for Asia and we're goingto come back to this, I presume,
(02:03):
later on in the interview.
It all started from a deep loveof Asia.
I was absolutely obsessed withAsian cultures, specifically
Chinese and Japanese cultures,when I was a kid.
I was very much into Kung Fu,kung Fu movies, bruce Lee,
jackie Chan, all that stuff.
And I took a bachelor degree inAsian studies, moved to
(02:34):
Shanghai in China, worked inShanghai for a few years as a
typical management consultantjob, boring job.
And when I was in Shanghaiafter a few years I realized
that's weird.
I'm very intellectual kind.
I don't enjoy the corporatelifestyle.
It's just not for me.
I would just wait eagerly tocome back home and read books,
you know, read scientific papers.
So I at some point realized thecorporate life is not for me.
(02:58):
I want to go back to academia.
So when I was there in ShanghaiI decided let's look for a
master's degree.
Maybe I can, you know, maybe Ican find a good master's degree
in this area of the worldbecause I want to stay in Asia.
And I looked around a bit andaccidentally as you said, it
always is accidentalAccidentally I found out that
(03:18):
there was a very cool master'sdegree in Taiwan entitled future
studies, which I had absolutelyno idea what it was.
And I go and research about itand I realized they pay
international students to do itbecause Taiwan wants to attract
international talent.
(03:38):
So that's a big plus.
And second, I realized it'ssuper cooler and he has all
these super cool soundingsubjects like career, futures,
the future of the world scenarioplanning, and it all sounded
amazing, especially because atthat point in time, as you can
imagine, I was probably like Idon't know 23, 24.
(04:00):
I had a thousand differentinterests, ranging from as
cultures and Asian philosophies,but also political science,
cognitive science, behavioraleconomics.
I would read all the sun dry,all I could find under the sun.
So I had a lot of differentinterests and this degree seemed
to be broad enough.
Right, it seemed to be umbrellarange.
(04:23):
You know, umbrella broad rangeenough for me to pursue wide
ranging themes.
So I went to Taiwan and I waslucky to be admitted on a
scholarship to pursue thisdegree and I love the fact that
this degree really gave you anintro to foresight and also all
(04:44):
the stuff you can do withForesight, which are pretty
ambitious things, right.
You can oh, you, change theword with policymaking, you
change the course of corporatevisions.
It's pretty wide, ambitiousstuff, right.
So I was very fascinated bythat and I love the program.
And I think this is one of thethings, one of the very strong
(05:07):
points of Foreset it doesattract people who really want
to change the word.
But on the other hand and wecan talk about this later a big
strength is usually also a bigweakness, because when you are
attracted to such big themes,why are you attracted to such
big themes?
Do you have to compensate forsome individual lack of
(05:28):
validation that you had?
We can go into the deep stufflater, but this program, right.
But at that point, obviously atthat point, I was young and
unaware of my the deeperdimensions of the self.
So I went all into it and I was.
I loved my time in Taiwan,especially because in Taiwan you
(05:49):
have this weird confluence ofEast and West and there is the
freedom of intellectuallucubration and speech that you
don't have in China, so it wasvery refreshing.
But yet you have Chineseculture and all the traditional
stuff that you cannot find aboutthe past the Chinese past and
the ancient wisdom of Asia youcan find in Taiwan connected
with future studies.
(06:10):
That was a very interestingexperience for me, right to go
through that master's degree,and that is where it all started
.
After that, I took my PhD inSingapore, focusing on
management and corporateforesight, and then I was a
professor for a couple of yearsand that's where I am now Right.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
Henry Suryawirawan, the School in Taiwan.
What was the name of it?
Speaker 3 (06:31):
Carlos Bernal Cum Cum University.
They still have programs whichare not exclusively focused on
futures.
I was lucky that when I tookthe master's, it was between
2015 and 2017.
They had a dedicated program.
It was literally a master'sdegree in future studies.
Now they have basicallycombined that degree with some
(06:55):
other degrees in education soyou can still take a degree.
I think it's either a master ora PhD, I can't remember well
but now it's more like futuresand education design, so it
veers into the educationalpolicy domain, so it's not
purely future studies.
When I took it back then it waspurely future studies but was
this with sohaya?
(07:16):
it was sohaya, one of the sohayawith one of the faculty members
.
Yes, sohaya was one of thefaculty members.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
So you have been deeply, deeply impacted with CLA
exercises, I'm sure.
Speaker 3 (07:30):
So that's quite the Well, I would say CLA was one of
the mainstream, the majorthreads that literally run all
over the program.
So in many classes we wouldcover CLA philosophy in practice
and other methods of course.
Speaker 2 (07:47):
And I'm a big fan of CLA.
For those on the show thatdon't know, it stands for causal
layer analysis.
It's a method to look at andcreate scenarios, but it's very
much systems thinking approachwith layers that go from litany
to like deep, deep, deep systemof the myth of things.
So I would highly recommendthat.
(08:08):
I'll probably do anotherepisode specifically on it.
I want to have Sahal on at somepoint and to talk about that,
but that's a that's a great wayto ground you.
I mean so you've donemanagement consulting and I
share that, that, that wonderfulexperience in this Academia I
haven't touched too much.
(08:28):
I live with an academic who doesa lot of great research.
So how client you know to kindof bring their injured, their
students in for for projects orrun that kind of stuff.
But really, like you know, gota bill, got a bread and butter,
(08:51):
got to deliver.
The appetite for a lot ofconsulting firms for futures is
not high because you know mostconsulting firms are reactionary
for clients.
You know they get paid a lot ofmoney to tell people what to do
tomorrow.
So how has that shaped yourapproach Like?
Speaker 3 (09:13):
when you teach and when you talk about the field
with people to kind of ground it.
Yeah Well, obviously I havebeen a very rigorous person.
So mostly academia has shapedmy mind in that whatever I do is
extremely rigorous in thatthere has to be a systematic
approach in it.
There has to be sources.
(09:33):
I never come up with stuff onmy desk and if I do so I will
say that clearly.
All sources are acknowledged,all sources that are
acknowledged.
There must be a foundation towhat I do.
So I think academia has shapedmy practice in the rigor of it.
The fact that I come from amanagement consulting standpoint
(09:57):
has also given the practicalapplication to it.
So at the end of the day, Ihave always thought of myself of
trying to strive the balancebetween practice and rigor,
because I have lived both.
You know I talk to executives,I know their concerns and yet I
also am in academia, so I knowthe importance of rigor.
So I always strive to achieve abalance between the two.
(10:22):
But it would surprise you thatthe thing that probably shaped
my way of doing, my modusoperandi, the most, is neither
academia, nor practice, normanagement consulting.
But it is Kung Fu, it ismartial arts.
Because at the end of the day,when I really go back to my
(10:42):
origin, my first real interests,at the end of the day, when I
really go back to my origin, myfirst real interests I came to
Asia to learn Kung Fu beforeeven before becoming a
management consultant.
I came to Asia to learn Kung Fuand I was literally learning
Kung Fu with a master's like theold school way, learning with
him for hours every morning,one-on-one, before even
(11:03):
realizing I couldn't go on withthat life because I didn't
produce any money.
So I then shifted to managementconsulting.
So that shaped my entire life,including my approach to
anything I do intellectually andpractically, including
Foresight, in that I amextremely serious about what I
do.
I don't know if you ever had aglimpse of a very solid kung fu
(11:27):
practice, which means that evenbefore fighting, you need to get
immersed in the fundamentalsfor years.
Basically, you need to learnstances and punches and you
cannot even start practicingwith an opponent, probably not
in the first two or three years.
You just got to be very seriousabout your commitment and the
fundamentals and that is a verydisciplined, serious approach.
(11:50):
So in everything I do, I takethings extremely seriously and
that is probably the thing thathas shaped my approach to
foresight the most, and that isalso one of the reasons why I
have been a provocateur, so tospeak, because I take the field
so seriously and I questionevery single thing and I have
(12:12):
been getting irritated, you know, by non-serious approaches.
That is, you know, if you wantto dig deep in.
Why am I a provocateur?
You know, why am I steeringdebates in the reason, rationale
and mode of practice of thefield?
Well, it's because I have thisvery martial approach to things,
if you wish.
So I think things like, if Isee a document that is not
(12:36):
properly attributed, or aprocess that is not systematic,
or anything that has not anyfoundations because we have
strong foundations in martialarts, right Then I question that
right, right.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
And just to go back, so with Kung Fu, I practice yoga
.
They're all practices.
There's a discipline to it,there's a rigor to it.
Right, like you're neverperfect.
There's a never perfection, oryou're in you're done right it's
always a constant practiceright.
Like you're never perfectthere's a never perfection.
Or you're done right it'salways a constant practice right
.
And the speed in which you doyoga is obviously faster than it
(13:11):
would Kung Fu.
But because you're allparallels and the rigor.
There is a rigor to thefoundations of foresight and
futures work, but it needs to beopen.
You need to learn the basics.
This is why I think a lot ofpeople that just call themselves
futurists, why you had talkedto there's a famous article.
(13:32):
He used a provocative wordabout there's it's.
I would just call it I.
I say I use the term fakefuturist.
So there are people who use theterm, but it's like, yes, you
actually have to do the toolsand the methods.
Um, yeah, joe lafour and I weretalking about this on another
on her episode about oh, Iactually have to.
(13:55):
There's there's things I do,but it's not one size fits all.
And I think with kung fu andplease correct me if I'm wrong
here is that you study the yearsof the foundation so that there
is almost a, there's a musclememory and a natural flow to the
that, and then when you learnto strike and do the other
things.
You have to improvise andobviously react to your opponent
(14:16):
to think too too many things,much like in a in a foresight
project or innovation project orany kind of not everything is
this.
You don't do the same thingevery single time.
You have to.
If it's, you know interviews.
But whatever it is, I think oneof the point, but if I remember
(14:38):
correctly correct if I'm wrongis that you wrote a paper about
I I don't know what.
I cannot remember the topic.
I should have had my titleshere.
My wife would be impressed if Ihad all the research notations.
But there was somebody thatcommented that disagreed with
you and I think you wrote apaper to counter his argument.
(14:58):
Yeah, Because that I don't knowhow much.
That's almost like.
It's like academic streetfighting, it's like that's the
equivalent of like like a, likea like a, uh, a recess yard.
You're like battle, like afterschool, like you know.
Let's go out in the back andyeah, so where did that like
(15:22):
tell us?
Can you that?
I think I found, and it wasawesome because you kind of took
it to the place where it's notlike you're just going to be on
a spout on social media and havea Twitter fight.
You actually were like you knowto your point about rigor.
You put it to the actualresearch you know.
You know if you'd like to gointo it.
I was just.
I found that a really greatexample.
I've never seen that, but itgoes to your point about rigor
(15:46):
and the academic part.
I thought it was just awesome.
Speaker 3 (15:53):
Yeah, it does happen in academia.
Actually, there are forumswhere it is designed as such.
In fact, the editor was up forit from the start.
Sometimes the editor looks atthe paper they get for a
publication and they suss.
They suss it beforehand.
They think, oh, this is aprovocative paper, it's going to
(16:14):
get responses and, by the way,if you want to reply to the
responses, that'd be fun Becauseat the end of the day, that's
also entertaining for theaudience, right?
So they see the boxing matchgoing on.
So it was design.
Actually, it was design fromthe start, that's great.
Speaker 2 (16:32):
Well, you know it was a great example.
You know, at the Dubai FutureForum I watched a video of you
and I encourage others to watchit.
Watch it.
One of the things that I've.
My work is to try and really,even though it's been around
this field has been around for50, 60 years it really hasn't
been standardized as like a realfield with roles and structure
(16:55):
and you know in your work incorporate foresight and
organizational foresight.
What do you think the the field,what do you think that we can
do to better establish this,like with credibility, standards
, models like what do you thinkneeds to be there in order for
it?
Because it can live or die inthe wrong or the right part of
an organization too.
Speaker 3 (17:15):
How does it get brought in when you've seen you
know, if you asked me thisquestion a year or two ago, I
would go into the details ofwhat are all the things that we
need to do, including, veryimportantly, facilitation.
You know you need to have someskills of facilitation.
You cannot just be dumped in aroom and start facilitating.
(17:40):
It's not something you learn byteaching yourself and you need
to be aware of the literatureand all that stuff.
It's not something you learn byteaching yourself and you need
to be aware of the literatureand all that stuff.
So I would go into greatdetails into that.
But if you ask me now, becauseI have taken a very Zen tends to
(18:12):
be very bitter when rigor isnot there in others' work.
So that is obviouslyadvantageous in that I see the
weaknesses and the strengths,but it can be also a lot of bad
energy, right, because it'salways about oh, why are they
not getting it?
It's like the bitterness isalways there.
So now I'm taking more of a Zenapproach, more laid back about
all things, and my reply now isyou know, we just need to
(18:34):
distinguish between futurism andforesight.
That would be a great start,because standardizing is
actually far away, like we can'teven distinguish between what
futurism is and foresight is,how can we even talk about
standardization?
So my answer to that questionis let's try to work on a basic
(18:56):
this is a very 101, one to onesorry 101 concept which is basic
common understanding of.
There is a difference betweenforesight, which is a systematic
approach to the futures andusing the futures to take better
decisions in the present, andfuturism, which is speculation,
not systematic.
(19:16):
Maybe there's a bit of sciencefiction there.
Futurism is just another animalright, and now there is not
such a distinction.
People do foresight and callthemselves futurist, which in my
opinion recalls futurism morethan foresight.
A lot of people do futurism andthen they call themselves
(19:39):
foresight practitioners.
It's a mess.
So I just aim, you know, Iwould just aim for that first.
That's the first step.
Then, when that is achieved,when there is a very you know
widespread understanding of thedifference, so people decide to
do either one or the other, thenwe can talk about
(19:59):
standardization.
We cannot even I don't thinkwe're even close to
standardizing right now.
Speaker 2 (20:04):
Yeah, it is a journey , I agree with you.
I remember I don't think we'reeven close to standardizing
right now.
Yeah, it is a journey, I agreewith you.
I remember I think it was onFuturePod you, when you were
going to you talked about thedifference between that and you
were looking at.
I distinguish between futuresresearch and futures practice.
So, like to your point aboutforesight strategic foresight I
just think it's named badly.
I think we have a brandingproblem.
Personally, as well.
(20:25):
As a product.
It's fun to build.
You know I build products.
I'm.
You know I make software.
Like I do a lot of brandingwork and you know we have a, we
have a, we have a, we have anaming and branding problem.
Yes, it is.
There's brand confusion, thereis brand dilution, there's all
the the bad things that go with.
You know brand disasters, and Idon't know what it would take
(20:50):
because there's so manyfractious elements of it, but at
least for me, my goal was totry and get some standards as to
how people might bring it intoan organization and hire people
and and and and fund that youknow, and it's like you talk,
you know, you we've talked aboutrigor.
We talked, you've talked a lotabout.
You know your passion with kungfu, which kind of which leads
(21:11):
me to this in the end, the zenstate, which is your book, which
I find fascinating.
You know a lot of books outthere.
Pretty much all of them areabout methods, tools,
philosophies great, they'regreat, they're great, they all
have their place.
But you wrote, or it's comingnow.
You've written a book the Tao ofForesight.
When I saw that and it's likeit's illustrations, I was like
(21:36):
what it's like Zen and the artof motorcycle maintenance.
It's like it's going to be thiskind of philosophical like.
So for with a book, you know,when you get a publisher you
kind of have to have yourlogline pitch Like what.
What is your kind of loglinepitch for the book?
Like what is what is that?
Speaker 3 (21:57):
That's such a question.
Well, the pitch is that?
Speaker 2 (22:00):
That's what I do man?
Speaker 3 (22:01):
That's what I do.
The pitch how do I present thebook in an elevator?
So the pitch is that there is amaster Imagine a master of Kung
Fu with great powers and themaster doesn't teach Kung Fu, he
teaches foresight.
That's the whole idea.
So it all came from, as youknow, my deep love for Asian
(22:26):
cultures and philosophies andKung Fu and all that stuff
connected with the idea that, asyou just said, foresight is
usually communicated very badlywith a typical textbook and it's
boring, right.
So you know, if you take thesetwo ingredients together, hey, I
really love Asian stuff, asiancultures, kung Fu, martial arts
(22:51):
and B foresight is so boring toread.
There is no exciting book.
How about combining the two?
How about writing a book thatis an edutainment novel, which
is memorable, which is fun,which is entertaining, using the
archetype of a master of kungfu and a student, but instead
the master of kung fu?
(23:12):
He has some great superpowers,but they're not kung fu related.
Actually, what he teaches, whatis kung fu style is not, you
know, tai chi or hungar or winchis foresight.
That's the idea, right?
And actually you would thinkhow in the world did you make
the connection?
These two things are completelydifferent.
(23:32):
What is the parallelism, whatis the commonality that actually
turns out and this I learnedafter a long time.
I realized after a long timethe two things are very much
connected.
No wonder I've been interestedin both, because they have a
very strong connection andobviously this connection can be
(23:53):
declined in many layers.
But to summarize, to get to thepoint, they're all about
managing uncertainty.
Think about it when you arefighting an opponent, you are in
one of the most uncertainstates.
You could be literally facingdeath right.
So how do you manage thatuncertainty?
You need to have a system, andthat system is a fighting style
(24:15):
or a fighting technique, a setof fighting techniques.
That's in martial arts.
When you're practicingforesight.
As a leader of an organization,you are in an extremely
uncertain environment where yourorganization could go bust
literally in one year if youdon't take the right decisions.
So how do we decide so thatyour organization survives and
(24:36):
thrives?
Well, you need to have a system, and that system has also tools
and techniques.
They're not punches, they'renot kicks.
They are different.
There are not kicks.
They are different.
They're scenario planning,they're horizon scanning and so
on.
So there is a very strongcommonality.
Speaker 2 (24:50):
And by digging deep into that commonality, the book
idea came about so there'scharacters, two characters jingo
jigo, chico chico and masterfoo jigo yeah so how they and
how do they convey, like youtalked about this, like
conveying the, the principles,like do do you walk?
(25:14):
Is the the student kind ofstarting on the path?
Is that kind of like theirinitial okay, what's is there
like a hero's journey in this?
Is there like what is thejourney that they take?
Okay, there is a hero's journey.
Speaker 3 (25:27):
Obviously I wanted to make the book entertaining and
engaging, so riveting in a way,because the danger of writing a
book like this and at thebeginning I was actually falling
into that risk the danger ofwriting a book like this is it's
going to be separate chapters.
In each chapter there is adialogue between master and
student and the master teachesthe student a principle of
(25:47):
foresight, using Asian wisdom,and that's it.
That's interesting.
But there is no pressure, thereis no interest or, you know,
push for the reader to go onbecause there is no narrative.
So then, later on, when I waswriting the book, I realized
push for the reader to go onbecause there is no narrative.
So then later on, when I waswriting the book, I realized,
okay, I need to create anarrative.
So then I went and built Plot ahero's journey.
(26:11):
So the journey starts with thestudent, the disciple.
He's got a problem, he needs tosave his village in danger and
he needs to find help.
And so he goes up to themountain to find a master to
help him out, to learn somepractice, to help him out, to
save his village in danger.
And he goes and finds Master Fuand then he starts learning the
(26:35):
techniques of foresight.
Through 12 chapters, includingthe epilogues and the
introduction, I think 12 or 13chapters, he learns all the
techniques of foresight.
In every chapter he learns anew technique.
But this occurs while going on ahero's journey.
So he has a lot of obstacles hegoes through.
(26:56):
You know there is an evilvillain who is trying to get the
foresight knowledge and use itfor some unscrupulous intent.
So he has to prevent that fromhappening.
And the villain has sort of aright man who is a Kung Fu
fighter that he needs to fight.
And so there are many differentfights over the course of the
(27:18):
book and he will enroll somehelp.
So he will enroll some, somebandit or another master of kung
fu who turns out he teachesscience fiction, prototyping to
get the help he needs to solvethe riddle, so to speak, and
eventually crack the wisdom of,but also save his village with
(27:42):
it.
That's the whole idea.
Speaker 2 (27:47):
I love that it reminds me of, so this
absolutely could be translatedto a children's book.
Speaker 3 (27:59):
Totally, and it was designed.
It was designed as somethingthat can be transformed into
different media, especially afilm or a playbook or a cartoon.
In fact, the next step for meis to try to pitch it to Disney,
to make a movie out of it or,for example, to translate it
(28:19):
into a storybook.
So there are different mediawhere you can.
You know a manga, for example.
You can represent it.
So yeah, you're totally spot on.
Speaker 2 (28:30):
I think that you could also, if you haven't
talked, to Peter Bishop over atTeach the Future.
Speaker 3 (28:39):
For example, you could do that.
Speaker 2 (28:41):
Yeah, like that.
This would be a great book corecurriculum for like to do for
teenagers or kids.
Like to to get the kind of it,make it accessible right Instead
of the actual and the thingsbeyond that.
Speaker 3 (28:55):
But I want to clarify one thing.
But the book is often very,very amenable to be read by
young people because there'sthis very engaging narrative.
You know, the typical 21 yearsold or even 15 years old would
not pick a foresight textbook ifhe goes in a bookstore, but he
would pick the Tao of Foresight,which is such an interesting,
(29:17):
you know, a novel.
So that's for sure.
But the book is also designedfor adults because it depends on
which stage of life you read it.
You will get what you need,Because the fact that the book
uses quotes of wisdom fromTaoism, Zen, Buddhism and
Confucianism makes a lot of thelearnings of the students quite
(29:41):
deep.
So actually it's about mindset,it's about mindfulness, it's
about philosophy, the essence ofpractice, it's about reaching
one limit, it's about findingpurpose.
So it's a book that it willgive you what you need at
whatever stage of life you are.
You know, if you are 15 yearsold, what you get out of it is
probably the engaging narrative.
If you are 45, what you get outof it?
(30:03):
Oh, these are interestingquotes about what is the meaning
of life, what is the practiceyou will focus your life on, to
know yourself better.
So there are different levels.
You can take the book.
It's a bit like Siddhartha, soto speak.
Speaker 2 (30:21):
Well, I keep thinking .
There's a couple of things.
It, if I was in a pitch meetingwith this, would be um, one,
you'd want to make this a series, because this is volume one,
like it's the journey, thehero's journey to learn, that
you could continue the story asthey maybe go through another,
(30:43):
to other villages or otherplaces and learn and apply what
they've learned.
So there's a volume two, three,four.
I mean this could be a ongoingseries, right?
So that's where also the pitchwith Disney, like it's not just
like a you know one, like youcould do it as a movie,
Absolutely, you could do it as amovie, absolutely you could do
it as a series, ongoing you know, series one is the journey, and
(31:06):
each, each book could be aseason, um, but it it creates
accessibility.
I think of really good bookslike history, uh, revealed or um
there's or hidden history.
Then there's the um, the Isurvived books.
There's ones for kids, likepeople, the kids have survived
disasters and it just gets itaccessible to like what happens
(31:30):
in those situations.
And did you, do you find apublisher for this?
Did you pitch that or is thisyour self-publishing?
How are you going through that?
What's your, what's the planfor this like?
Is there a publisher that'shelping you or what are you
doing with that?
Speaker 3 (31:44):
Yeah, I was very lucky to be to be published with
Penguin, so it's going to bepublished with Penguin in the
next few months and it obviouslyis a very rigorous process and
they go through, you know, veryrigorous structural editing,
then copy editing, thentypesetting.
So I'm very happy.
They're really helping tosolidify the narrative and that
(32:08):
will probably take a few moremonths.
So I think at some point inspring 2025, it will be
published.
I hope to be, I hope to have adate, a precise date you know,
soon, and after that happens, Iwill then do as you said.
You know, depending on theresponse as well, I will think
about either a sequel oradaptations and, by the way, as
(32:30):
you correctly noted, the book isopen to sequels because, in
order for me to design the book,I had to do a bit of world
building, right.
So, I had to create a newuniverse.
Speaker 2 (32:41):
I was just about to ask you the world building
process which is wonderful.
Speaker 3 (32:45):
There is actually a very deep, there was a very deep
world building process.
So I had to create a new world,which is called the land of
Pangu.
By the way, there's a Chinesesymbology there, because Pangu
in Chinese mythology is thecreator of all things.
So it's like a, it's a demigod,it's a creator.
And so in this land there arethree villages.
(33:06):
One is the village where thekid is born, and that is the
village in danger.
Then there's another village,which is the village state that
has a boss or an evil villainthat is trying to get to the Tao
of foresight and use thatknowledge or wisdom for evil
purposes.
And then there's anothervillage state which is mentioned
(33:28):
in the book but is notcompletely elaborated.
So there is room for the sequelto happen in that third part of
the land of Fangu.
So there was a design in this,as you will see when you read it
the land of Fango.
Speaker 2 (33:40):
So there was a design in this, as you will see when
you read it.
So your process to kind ofclose the loop on the DAO, of
course, at least for now, h-u-bcontinued.
But what was?
Did you use CLA?
Did you use other methods?
How did you do?
What was your process to doworld building Like when you
thought of the greater macrolevel?
(34:02):
Then you created the eyeless.
Just tell me, I don't want toafraid of me, kind of infuse
anything.
I was just I would love for theaudience to understand because
that is such a key part of beinga futurist.
You can just generate ascenario.
You have to do some world buildof any stage in order to
communicate.
My favorite part is designfiction, so I have to create the
(34:23):
people of the future.
So there's an inhabited.
They inhabit that you know.
You just can't just inhabit ascenario.
You inhabit the world.
So, like for you, what was thatprocess?
How did that go?
Like, where did you start?
What?
What did you do?
Did you are you an artist?
Did you?
Did you journal?
Like, what was that?
Speaker 3 (34:44):
Thanks for that question.
It was a messy process becauseI've never done it Messy.
So I started writing the bookwith an outline of the plot and
I wrote the first two chapters.
And I actually think this is agood process, because the
outline of the plot cannot beperfect until you start writing
(35:06):
it.
So if you want to simplify it,I actually wrote the plot first
of the whole book, then I wrotethe first two chapters and then
I stopped and started reflectingAll right, now, if this
continues, now I've seen thereis a plot, I've seen there is
two chapters, it's doable,there's a plausibility involved.
Now, how do I enhance the depthof it?
(35:30):
So about chapter two or threewhen I was writing chapter three
, I started thinking more deeplyabout the background of the
character.
So I wrote characters profilesand then I wrote their past,
because they need to have a pastbefore what happens in the book
.
And then from there I realized,oh, if they need to have a past
(35:51):
, there needs to be some world.
So then I went to and Idesigned the world and I divided
the world in different statesand I created a map world.
And I divided the word indifferent states and I created a
map.
In fact, the first thing youwill see when you open.
The book is the map of the landof Congo, of the fictional land
where this happens.
It's a bit of a treasure huntfeel.
Speaker 2 (36:10):
That's great.
Speaker 3 (36:12):
So, and from there I stopped, and then I kept writing
.
Speaker 2 (36:15):
It's kind of like opening middle.
It's like opening Lord of theRings and seeing the map of
middle earth.
Yes, yes, yes.
Speaker 3 (36:21):
Yes, yes, yes, yes.
And so when I had a basic worldbuilding process done, I then
went back to the book andfinished writing.
I wrote maybe a chapter a monthand then, when I finished
writing, I went back to theworld building process and I
asked myself, given thisnarrative that we now have
complete, what is missing?
(36:43):
So maybe there was, you know,some events that were missing
that I had to add here and there, or maybe some features of the
characters were not emphasizedenough.
I need to exaggerate them a bitto make them more on point.
Maybe this needs to be a bitmore villain, a bit more evil,
maybe this needs to be a bitmore ignorant to create
archetypes, right?
So that's basically the process.
(37:04):
So I started with a plot, roughplot, then I wrote a bit of it,
then I went back to the worldbuilding, then I wrote the whole
thing and then I went back tothe world building again.
But this is not intended.
This came out of me trying todo it basically.
Speaker 2 (37:19):
But you now have a foundation in which you know, I
see such a rich universe HarryPotter, you know, star Wars, I
mean anything that's got, thathas a greatness attached to it,
has a universe, has a worldbuilding, has been built for
that.
You know, this is kind of, youknow, as I, this is such an
(37:41):
exciting.
I cannot wait to read this bookand I can't wait for my son.
You know I'll get my son toread it and I think it's just
going to be a core part of anyforesight curriculum.
I just see it because it's just, it's just an accessible way to
kind of especially theone-on-one classes, right.
It's like like you want to getpeople just to have some fun,
right, instead of just the rigorof it, you want to enjoy.
(38:04):
You're thinking about fun thingsand you made a comment earlier.
It's like the bigger things,like why people get into this
field.
It's the double-sided.
Well, knives are two-sided, butit is a challenge because if
you want to attack those bigproblems, there's a reason too.
And it's like to your pointabout rigor, it's the planning,
(38:26):
or dreaming, versus doing so.
Very much about the execution.
I think that's why I gravitatetoward the, the design, futures,
the backcasting, like theputting the things into action,
bringing people, bringing thepeople who really are about the
present, and it's like there isa challenge with I call the
tyranny of the present, becausepeople can can't even
(38:49):
extrapolate, like if you thinkof like I have, I collect
futures cards and I think ofstuff from like the 1930s, about
the future or like different,oh, and you see things there's
like a video phone.
Or I always use the Blade Runnerexample.
It's like he has a video phonebut he has to go to a phone
booth where it's like it's thetyranny of the present right and
(39:09):
a lot of people are afraid Ithere was a great class.
I took at University of Houstonwhere I did my work, is um,
julie Rush did a class on thepsychology of futures, because
there are people that are afraidof thinking that far ahead and
I feel like this book't want topresuppose anything kind of let
you talk about what.
(39:46):
What are your next steps?
Where you're in, you're insunny arctic level, singapore.
You know arch, you know thearctic cool of singapore, um, so
, which I know.
So where are you staying there?
What, what are your?
What are your plans with?
I mean, with this, is it what's, what's?
What are your plans next?
You've been making this shift.
Speaker 3 (40:07):
Thanks for asking, steve.
Yeah, so I I I'm going to seguefrom the book to this to my
answer to this.
So the book was obviously avery transformative experience
for me, because I'm an academic,you know, I'm a consultant, and
then yet I wrote this novel.
(40:27):
It's quite different, right?
It's quite something thatdoesn't get done in academia,
quite a different animal, quiteunusual for an academic to do
that.
And it was one of the mostliberating thing I've ever done.
So I don't know how much you arefamiliar with the peer review
(40:48):
publication process.
It can be some of the most.
It's some of the mostexcruciating writing process or
efforts.
You can literally put your mindon earth and I always resented
the pressures and thelimitations and strictures of
the peer review process inacademia.
(41:08):
How is writing so limited byall these extra and over
rigorous process?
Sometimes rigor can get out ofhand, right.
And then I I got down to writethis novel and it was absolutely
liberating because it came outof me.
It was very natural.
(41:29):
It was very natural for me towrite it and to edit it and to
polish it and then, even withpenguin, the process that I'm
being put through with penguin,it's rigorous, rigorous, you
know it's systematic and theyare providing very constructive
feedback to improve thenarrative, but what they do is
(41:50):
they try to get the best out ofwhat you're meant to do.
They don't try to fix you in away that you comply to an
academic system that is, I wouldsay, obsolete.
So it was very liberating forme to go through this and
through this transformativeexperience of writing the book,
I realized, huh, I have aninclination for writing this
(42:13):
edutainment stuff.
I am much more of a writer thanof a scientist, writer than of
a scientist.
So I decided that I had tocontinue doing that, literally.
After this experience, I cannotgo back to writing normal
scientific articles.
You know, obviously, for my jobas a professor, I need to write
(42:33):
a scientific paper here andthere every few years to, you
know, to check the box of tenure.
Okay, that could be done, butthat's not my main thing.
I realized my main thing.
My main calling is to writethese edutainment stories, to
bring the wisdom of the East, tobring the wisdom of Asia,
wisdom of foresight, the wisdomof disciplines that I care about
, to a large audience using somefun methodology, some fun
(43:00):
medium of communication.
So I will continue.
I will continue to writeentertainment novels like this,
and I'm already writing a secondnovel, actually, which is very
similar to the first.
It's not a sequel to the Tao ofForesight.
This is another novel whichactually talks about very deep
wisdom, very deep stuff, justlike the Dao Por said.
(43:21):
But in this case it's aboutfinding meaning and one's
purpose, and it does so througha story of another boy who goes
through a very interestingexperience in China.
So it's more of a current eventsort of novel.
So I will keep on doing thesethings, and if that includes a
(43:44):
sequel or adaptations of the DAOforesight at some point in the
future, all the better.
But my focus has shifted fromforesight to being a
communicator of wisdom, so tospeak.
Speaker 2 (43:58):
A communicator of wisdom.
So you still will teach.
Obviously, you're gainfullyemployed employed.
It's hard to get those jobs andkeep you know, and you've
achieved a lot through that.
But it seems like you've made anew space and the ratio of
which you'll focus is definitelyyes.
So there, yeah.
So you and I still can beprovocative about foresight, but
(44:21):
still to the point, you found abeautiful kind of taking that
leap.
Um, you know, and you have areally unique perspective.
(44:44):
You know, looking, it'll be 20and this will come out early
part of 2020 you know, and aswe're not going to be, inundated
with these horrible predictionuh, blog posts, um.
But let's just take the fieldlike.
Let's look at the next decade,though I'll put our futurist hat
on.
Where do you think we're headedthough, with the field in
(45:06):
general?
As you see it, as you've seenit change, and I think we've
seen more change in the lastfive years than we did in the
previous 15.
But I'm curious to get yourthoughts on that.
So I'm happy for this question.
Speaker 3 (45:18):
I don't know if you're going curious to get your
your thoughts on that.
Like so, I'm happy for thisquestion I.
I don't know if you're going tobe surprised by the answer, but
my answer usually to this kindof questions is if, if I comply
to the tenets of foresight, Ican't reply because, requiring.
Speaker 2 (45:38):
Now, that's the Alex answer I expected.
Speaker 1 (45:41):
I, I was a was a tricky question, but I didn't
follow it with a trick.
Speaker 3 (45:46):
So some people do reply.
I do acknowledge that somepeople fall into the temptation
of replying, which is a verystrong temptation, but I don't.
I don't because, again, goingback to rigor, but not over
rigor there is one thing thathas to be respected, which is we
(46:06):
cannot know the future, and anyprojection about the future is
an attempt to conquer it.
So if I answer that questionand say what I believe, which is
probably biased andopinion-driven based on the
events I attended, based on mybackground, if I answer that
question, some of the listenerswill be, in turn, skewed by my
(46:30):
biased experience, and so I amnot paying any justice to the
systematic nature of Foreset,which would be.
I'm not going to reply to thequestion.
I'm going to conduct a rigorousscenario planning approach to
look at all the possible futuresof the field and then go back
to the present with someinsights not probabilities with
(46:53):
some insights that drive mydecisions right now, regardless
of likelihood and probability,right.
So that's my answer to thatquestion.
I think that question cannot beanswered by anybody who claims
to be somebody who is solidabout the foundations of
foresight and, by the way, thisquestion will come back in the
(47:15):
book and the master will chidethe student for replying this
question.
I said what are you doing?
Will chide the student forreplying this question.
I said what are you doing?
I'm going to hit your head witha stick.
If you try to answer aprediction question, you can't
in a very Zen fashion.
Speaker 2 (47:31):
I would expect nothing less.
It wasn't meant to be a trickquestion, but I love your answer
and I will say in pure futuristconsulting sense it depends,
because there are many possiblefutures, right, so it depends
who you are right, AbsolutelyDepending on the stakeholder
(47:52):
you're responding to or theresources and capability of your
organization, what you need topay attention to and what is
your future right?
Speaker 3 (48:00):
Different futures for different no-transcript.
Speaker 2 (48:12):
Hold on a sec no problem sorry, no problem right
(48:32):
my wife's putting my son, I'lljust cut all this, um, yeah, so
yeah, because we, um, you know,let's flip that.
Then, for those coming into thefield, what would you, what
would you give advice on?
Just entering this?
They, they found this, theyrealized that, not just calling
(48:55):
themselves a futurist, but theyactually have to do things to
become a future, like they haveto learn, they have to study.
Very cool, obviously, startingwith reading your book.
That's a great, that's a great,uh, great piece of advice I'd
give them.
But what, um, what advice wouldI?
Speaker 3 (49:12):
would give.
I would say I don't have advice, because all the advice I was
ever given as turned out to behorrible, so I don't have advice
.
I can share my story and youare free to pick anything or
nothing out of it that is usefulor nonsense, but the only thing
(49:35):
I can say is I think it's veryimportant to know why you're
doing it, why are you doing it,and by why I mean to investigate
deeply into the differentlayers of reasons of why you're
drawn to the field, because thisis a field, as I was discussing
with some major experts thatwere asking me and concerned
(49:57):
about my reason to leave why areyou leaving?
So I was discussing them.
The reason of leaving for meare entirely personal.
There is nothing about thefield that made me leave.
The reason is I realized thisis not my calling in life, made
me leave.
The reason is I realized thisis not my calling in life.
But there are things about thefield that sped up, you know,
(50:18):
that made that decision quicker,and some of those reasons that
made my decision quicker arethat the field is in a deep
state of trauma.
It's in a huge psychologicaltrauma.
It's collective trauma of notknowing its position in the
world and not wanting to discussit, possibly because it's
(50:39):
self-select people, you know,because you don't need a degree,
you don't need credentials tobe a futurist or a force of
practitioner, however you wantto call it.
So because of that, I guess thefield is automatically
selecting people who are drawninto the self-taught domain.
And because of that, what kindof people are we driving in?
Right, maybe those are thepeople who want to cut corners,
(51:04):
or maybe not, but in any case,there are questions to be asked
about the role of the field andwhy we're having the same debate
about what we are and what wedo.
We're having the same debatefor basically 78 years.
So the only thing I realizedthis is again my story.
Take what you need out of it.
(51:25):
Be very clear about the deeppsychological reasons why you
are doing this what, for whomand everything.
Yeah, that's great.
Speaker 2 (51:37):
What are you driven by?
It's a great.
It's a great answer.
Right, the field will change,you know.
So, as we kind of get towardour kind of wrapping things up.
You know, you know when you'restarting this, you know you
started your career.
I mean, you're giving thisreally good perspective and
advice to people like why, whatdo you, what do you wish?
(51:59):
You knew at the beginning ofthis, like somebody had told you
yeah, yeah, I wish I knew why Iwas getting into it.
Speaker 3 (52:08):
Going back to the first question you asked me,
when I first got into it Ithought this would be my calling
because it was so wide rangingand so ambitious.
These big themes, you know,with Foresight you talk about
climate change, change the world, change the mindset of people,
(52:40):
change the vision of a country,change the narrative of the
globe basically these are veryambitious themes.
But why are you doing suchambitious themes?
Why are you focusing on suchambitious themes?
In my case, I wasovercompensating, a guilt, a
shame of not having shown myselfI was smart enough.
My mother never told me I'msmart.
I had to prove myself.
(53:01):
I needed validation to showmyself I was smart.
So the whole idea of pursuing avery ambitious field that can
help you change the world for me, ambitious field that can help
you change the world for meactually and I didn't know at
that time was just a cover-up tovalidate my intelligence,
(53:25):
because it's much better to tellyourself you are pursuing great
things rather than beingashamed at the fact you didn't
have a validation and so you'redoubting your own intelligence.
So then I went through thatprocess and I realized I don't
need to prove myself.
I'm smart.
Okay, now let's focus on what Ilove to do.
And then the DAO foresight cameup.
So now I know what I am andwhat I love to do.
(53:48):
I don't need to impress someexecutives in a room.
In fact, I don't want to do anymore workshops around the world
and visit a lot of corporateoffices.
I'd rather talk to people aboutreal things.
Busy people, not offices.
Busy places, not at night.
Speaker 2 (54:07):
Conversations just like you and I are having.
This is the best part.
Speaker 3 (54:10):
Yeah, not like what's the value chain of your company
?
Tell me what have you you know?
All this is the best part yeah,not like what's the value chain
of your company.
Tell me what have you you know?
All this is very dry and it allalways not always, but very
often covers up some deeperfears and trauma about the way
we manage the future.
So I might still talk about theway we manage the future, the
(54:31):
way we manage uncertainty, in myYouTube videos or in my novels
in the future, but I will nottake any more scenario planning,
workshops or projects.
Speaker 2 (54:43):
I think you can be the mindset futurist Because I
think the thing is futuriststhink in different ways.
There's a lot of different wayspeople approach it and the way
that their thinking modes are.
People say it attracts a lot ofdifferent ways people approach
it and the way that theirthinking modes are.
People have you say it attractsa lot of different.
Like self-taught I wasself-taught for a long time, a
lot of books, but I also wentand did the formal academic
because I wanted to deepen mywork and just expose myself to
(55:05):
things that I couldn't get youknow any other way.
Speaker 3 (55:10):
So there are many different ways, yeah I'll give
you I'll give you.
I'll give you an example.
I was talking with a friend whois also in Foresight just a few
weeks ago about my decision toleave the field, and it's very
difficult usually to describewhat you're going through when
you go through careertransitions.
So I was trying to put this inwords and telling him you know,
(55:31):
I just wanted to.
I wanted to take a step backand maybe write novels, and
maybe in the future I will stillbe involved in foresight, but
in a different way.
And so he said oh, I know whatyou want to do.
You want to gain some fame withyour books so that eventually
you will be hired back by theCEO of McKinsey to be his
(55:53):
personal foresight assistant.
And then I thought oh, this isan interesting metaphor, but
actually what I'd rather do isto write a novel which does not
talk about foresight, but someof the characters have a
foresight mindset.
And then the CEO of McKinsey isreading that novel on the
toilet in the morning and helikes the character in the novel
(56:15):
.
Speaker 2 (56:15):
So that's a different metaphor.
That's a heck of an image thereto have the managing, the
global managing partner on the,can you know?
on the toilet on the loo reading, but you know those are the,
those are those kinds ofinspirational books.
You know the mindset of offorce you, you know, and how you
think about it and how youapproach it.
That's the kind of stuff thatmillions of people read, versus
(56:39):
actual practitioner tools, whichis necessary.
It's kind of book that you know, I do, I do, but it's like I'm
inspired by that and you know itmakes me think about.
You know how I want tocommunicate this, as I, as I
were to be a communicator ofthis, of this subject, and feel
so it is.
You found this calling.
You know, if you're lookingback, you're young, decades,
(57:03):
we're like and like how wouldyou want the impact to to be?
Like you want what do you wanthow you want this work to be
remember?
Like when people are talkingabout you, like your family,
your friends or just the world,people that you've touched.
Like how do you?
want to.
Yeah, yeah, it's just like foryou.
Like, when people look, whenyou look back on a, on a life
(57:23):
well lived in a career, you know, writing career and you know,
and the things, you, you kind oflook at it with this.
This was great, you know, it'slike I've done.
You feel that you feel thatinside you, yeah well, yeah,
what do you?
Why do you want people to thinkof that?
What do you want people?
Speaker 3 (57:40):
that's such an interesting question.
I think it's such a questionthat everybody has to think
right, and it's, in a way, aquestion that is colored by a
foresight mindset, becauseyou're really thinking about
what in the future you want.
Let's go, let's go and look atthe end of your life.
That's an awesome question andI have been thinking about this
for a long time and obviouslynone of us has a 100 clear view
(58:02):
of that.
But my if not 100, but stillclarifying in the process of
clarifying answer to that wouldbe I would love to be that
person who made wisdom fun.
You know that person who oh,that's the author or YouTube
personality or TV personalitywho made all this deep stuff fun
(58:24):
and entertaining, and I want tojust go back to the video or
the books that he produced aftera heavy workday, you know,
after a horrible work day.
You know, after a horrible workday, what I want to do is just
want to.
I want to read this fun book,or I want to watch this fun
YouTube video or fun docuseries,and I will be entertained.
I will, I may laugh, and yet Iwill also get some wisdom out of
(58:48):
it.
That's what I want to do, yeah.
Speaker 2 (58:51):
That's wonderful and I, I think you'll, I absolutely
believe you'll have that.
I think of people who have hadimpact on um others.
One like JK Rowling comes to mymind, because before you know
when she wrote it.
It's one thing.
Harry Potter's a wonderfulstory, but it got kids back to
(59:12):
reading.
Like so many kids became avidreaders, reader right and to and
they're adults and they'vegrown up right it.
They brought that.
Uh, george lucas brought in theability to think, um
differently about a future, thethe used future.
(59:34):
Right, everything is very wornright.
It's.
It's a how people think aboutscience fiction instead of this
clean, because I think of moviesright before that, like logan's
run or other thing, oreverything was pristine right.
Instead of that, that usedfuture.
Speaker 3 (59:47):
And then I think of the 90s where, yeah, the
narrative between the fight, theever happening fight between
evil and good, and it's deep inthat as well.
So there's some deep stuff aswell.
Speaker 2 (01:00:01):
And here is Journey, of course, campbell's Journey,
and you know, when I think ofthe mid 90s, there were
directors, like you know,independent artists like Robert
Rodriguez, jon Favreau, KevinSmith.
They showed you could make afilm for very little.
And even now, like I look atgenerative AI and Sora and all
(01:00:21):
this, like AI filmmaking, whichI've been experimenting with,
the ability to make content andcreate is amazing and it is to
your point.
It allows the artists to build.
And I hope that for you.
Thank you yeah.
I would love for it to close, ofcourse.
Where do people find you?
(01:00:45):
How do they preorder the book?
You know, you've got yourYouTube channel, you've got your
Substack, you've got a lot ofplaces people can find you.
So could you help how?
Speaker 3 (01:00:57):
do people kind of get to know Alex more.
Linkedin is a place where I amrelatively active my YouTube
channel.
I am pivoting it to this newdirection of entertaining wisdom
, so to speak, which may or maynot include elements of
foresight.
And there is a mailing list, sothere is basically a Google
(01:01:19):
form that the audience can fillup and put their email in it so
that they will receiveinformation about the book.
Maybe we can put this in theshow notes, absolutely, because
so now we don't have a date, butthe date will be announced
literally in the next few weeks.
So chances are that by the timethis podcast is out, we'll know
a date and if you subscribe tothis email list, you'll know the
(01:01:42):
date of publication.
And along with that, I willarrange some discount codes as
well, special deals for the book.
Speaker 2 (01:01:51):
Okay, great.
Well, alex, I know we'll haveyou on.
I'd love to have you back onright after the launch or short
after and see how you knowreactions and kind of talk about
you know your experiences.
Speaker 3 (01:02:01):
It'd be lovely.
Yes, definitely.
Thanks so much, reallyappreciate it.
Speaker 2 (01:02:05):
Yeah, thanks for being on.
Alex, appreciate it.
Thanks to you.
Speaker 3 (01:02:09):
Take care.
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