The key to organizational survival lies in embedding foresight deeply into company DNA, creating structures that detect change, understand implications, and adapt accordingly before crises emerge. Futurist Steve Fisher shares practical frameworks for developing this capability, regardless of team size or organizational readiness.
• Four organizational models for implementing foresight: Lone Wolf, Dynamic Duo, Special Forces Unit, and Enterprise Transformation
• Step-by-step implementation playbook covering environmental scanning, scenario thinking, and strategy connection
• Common pitfalls to avoid: academic rabbit holes, crystal ball expectations, shiny object syndrome
• Real-world success stories from retail, manufacturing, and financial services
• Practical tactics anyone can implement tomorrow, from weekly signal drops to future press releases
• DNA integration framework showing progression from basic immune system to full imagination system
• Metrics that actually work for measuring foresight success, beyond traditional ROI
• Strategies for handling resistance from time horizon skeptics, control freaks, and resource guardians
Take the 30-day challenge to start embedding foresight into your organization. Begin with one signal to track, one scenario to explore, or one assumption to challenge. The future belongs to organizations that see it coming, and it's up to you to help develop that vision.
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Thank you for joining me on this ongoing journey into the future. Until next time, stay curious, and always think forward.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to the Think Forward podcast, where we speak
with futurists, innovators andbig thinkers.
Come along with your host,steve Fisher, and explore the
future together.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Welcome back to the Think Forward podcast, where we
speak with futurists, innovatorsand big thinkers about what
lies ahead.
I'm your host, steve Fisher,and today we're diving back into
our being a Futurist serieswith something I'm genuinely
excited about and somethingthat's been on my mind after all
the incredible interviews we'vedone recently.
Back into our being a Futuristseries with something I'm
genuinely excited about andsomething that's been on my mind
after all the incredibleinterviews we've done recently.
You know we've talked toeveryone, from space
(00:31):
entrepreneurs like GuillermoSonnlein to innovation leaders
like Christian Mulroth atEtonics, and design futurists
like Phil Balagtas.
And there's one question thatkeeps coming up, steve.
This all sounds amazing, buthow do I actually get my
organization to think about thefuture beyond next quarter's
earnings?
Well, today we're rolling upour sleeves and getting
(00:52):
practical.
We're talking about embeddingforesight into your company DNA
not just having a futuresthinking workshop once a year
that everyone forgets about bylunch, but actually making a
part of how your organizationbreathes, thinks and operates.
And before you start thinking,great, another consultant
telling me to change everything.
Relax, I'm going to sharemodels that work, whether you're
(01:15):
a team of one trying to be thelone voice of reason or you're
lucky enough to have a wholecrew of future-minded rebels.
So grab your coffee, settle inand let's figure out how to turn
your company into atime-traveling, trend-spotting,
future-ready machine.
No DeLorean required.
All right, let's start with theelephant in the room, or should
I say the elephant in theconference room?
Most companies are about asforward-thinking as a rearview
(01:37):
mirror.
They're so busy fightingtoday's fires that they don't
notice tomorrow's volcanoerupting in the distance.
And I get it.
When you're dealing withquarterly reports, budget
constraints and that one systemthat crashes every Tuesday at 2
pm, thinking about what mighthappen in five years feels like
a luxury.
But here's the thing and thisis something we've learned from
every single guest we've had onthis show the companies that
(01:59):
survive and thrive are the onesthat embed foresight into their
very DNA.
Now, when I say DNA, I'm nottalking about some genetic
modification experiment gonewrong.
I'm talking about makingfutures thinking so fundamental
to how your organizationoperates that removing it would
be like trying to take thecaffeine out of a coffee shop
Technically possible, but you'dbe left with something that
(02:20):
nobody recognizes.
Let me tell you what embeddingforesight really looks like.
It's not about having a crystalball in the corner office or
hiring a full-time profit.
It's about creating anorganizational immune system
that can detect change before itbecomes a crisis and an
organizational learning systemthat can adapt faster than your
competition can say disruption.
Think about it this way If yourcompany were a person, would it
(02:43):
be the type who sees a stormcoming and grabs an umbrella?
Or the type who gets soaked andthen complains that nobody told
them it was going to rain?
We're aiming for umbrellagrabbing here, people.
Now, before we dive into thehow-to, let's talk about why
this matters.
More than ever.
We're living through what Icall the Age of Intelligence,
and if you've been following ourSuper Shifts framework, you
(03:05):
know we're dealing with ninemassive transformations
happening simultaneously, fromgenerational drift to bio nexus.
These aren't your grandfather'sbusiness challenges.
The pace of change isn't justaccelerating, it's accelerating
exponentially.
Remember when we thought theinternet was fast?
Now we've got AI that can writepoetry, robots that can do
backflips and teenagers who cancreate global movements with a
(03:27):
TikTok video.
If your organization is stillthinking in five-year strategic
plans, you might as well beplanning your vacation itinerary
with a sundial.
But here's the exciting part,and this is why I love this work
Companies that get foresightright don't just survive this
chaos, they thrive in it.
They're like surfers who'velearned to read the waves while
everyone else is still trying tofigure out which end of the
(03:49):
surfboard goes in front.
I've seen organizationstransform from reactive
firefighters to proactive waveriders, and the difference is
night and day.
They stop asking what happenedand start asking what's next.
They stop saying nobody couldhave predicted this and start
saying we saw this coming sixmonths ago.
So how do you build thiscapability?
(04:11):
Well, it depends on whereyou're starting from and, more
importantly, how many allies youhave in this noble quest to
drag your organization kickingand screaming into the future.
Let's talk about organizationalmodels for embedding foresight,
because not all heroes wearcapes.
Some wear business casual andtry to convince the C-suite that
thinking about the future isactually a good idea.
There are four models todiscuss.
(04:32):
Here's the first one.
Model one the lone wolfPopulation.
You Maybe you're the only personin your organization who thinks
strategic planning shouldinvolve more than just adding
10% to last year's numbers.
Don't worry, every revolutionstarts with one person, and you
might just be your company's Neo, except instead of dodging
bullets, you're dodging budgetcuts and eye rolls in meetings
(04:59):
If you're flying solo.
Your strategy is guerrillaforesight.
You're going to be like afutures thinking ninja,
embedding insights into existingprocesses so smoothly that
people don't even realizethey're thinking about the
future.
Start by becoming the signalspotter.
Make it your job to bringinteresting trends and weak
signals to every meeting you'rein, not in an overwhelming the
robots are coming way but in ahelpful hey, did you know this
(05:20):
thing is happening that mightaffect our project way?
Think of yourself as theorganizational early warning
system.
Next, become the scenariowhisperer.
When people are debatingstrategies, start asking what if
questions, what if this trendaccelerates?
What if our main assumption iswrong?
What if that competitor we'venever heard of suddenly becomes
(05:43):
relevant?
You're not being a pessimist,you're being a possibility
thinker.
And here's a pro tip from myown experience Always frame
futures thinking in terms ofbusiness value.
Don't talk about foresightmethodologies.
Talk about risk mitigation andopportunity identification.
Sometimes you need to speak thelanguage of the organization
before you can teach them a newvocabulary.
(06:05):
Model 2.
The dynamic duo Population Uplus 1 to 2 allies.
Congratulations, you've foundsome fellow time travelers.
This is where things getinteresting, because now you can
divide and conquer, create whatI call a futures underground
network.
One person focuses on scanningfor technological signals,
another on social trends,another on regulatory changes.
(06:25):
You're essentially creating aninformal intelligence network
that covers all the steepcategories social, technological
, economic, environmental andpolitical.
Start hosting future Fridaysessions, informal lunch
conversations where you sharesignals and brainstorm
implications.
Make them fun.
Bring snacks.
Make it the meeting peopleactually want to attend, not the
(06:46):
one they try to escape from.
Most importantly, startdocumenting everything.
Create a simple shared documentor Slack channel where you
capture signals, trends andinsights.
This becomes your evidence basefor when someone asks how did
you know that was going tohappen?
Model three the special forcesunit population 3 to 10 people
Now we're talking.
(07:07):
With a small but dedicated team, you can start building real
foresight capability.
This is where you can implementsomething approaching the
spectrum foresight method we'vetalked about on the show.
Create formal roles A chiefsignal scanner sounds cooler
than trend analyst.
A scenario builder, a strategytranslator, a person who turns
insights into actionablerecommendations, thank you.
(07:27):
These are half-day workshopswhere you bring together people
from different departments toexplore scenarios and
implications.
Make these cross-functional,because the best insights happen
(07:50):
when you get the accountingperson talking to the marketing
person about what AI might meanfor customer service.
And here's something I learnedfrom Christian Mulroth's work at
Itonics Create innovationchallenges based on your
foresight work.
Design a product for thisfuture scenario.
Solve this emerging customerneed.
Turn your futures thinking intoinnovation fuel.
(08:11):
Model four the enterprisetransformation population
organization-wide.
If you're lucky enough to worksomewhere that's ready for full
transformation, congratulations.
You're about to build a futuresoperating system.
This is where you create formalstructures, a foresight center
of excellence, futures thinkingintegrated into strategic
planning processes and foresightmetrics built into KPI outcomes
(08:33):
.
You're not just doing foresight, you're becoming a
foresight-driven organization.
But remember, with great powercomes great responsibility.
Don't let this become anotherbureaucratic monster.
Keep it agile, keep it relevantand keep it connected to real
business value.
Now let's get practical aboutimplementation.
I'm going to give you astep-by-step playbook that you
can adapt to your situation,whether you're Team Lone Wolf or
(08:55):
Team Enterprise Transformation.
Step one start with the so whatfactor?
Before you do anything else,figure out why your organization
should care about the future.
And because it's important isnot an answer.
What specific businesschallenges could foresight help
solve?
What opportunities might youmiss without it?
Maybe it's that your industryis being disrupted by
technologies you've never heardof.
(09:16):
Maybe it's that your customerbase is shifting in ways your
traditional market researchisn't picking up.
Maybe it's that your supplychain keeps getting blindsided
by unpredictable events thatactually had plenty of warning
signs.
Document these pain points.
Make them visible.
Nothing motivates change likepointing out that the thing
keeping everyone awake at nightmight actually be solvable.
(09:37):
Step 2.
Build your scanning system.
Every good foresight capabilitystarts with environmental
scanning.
You need to be systematicallymonitoring your environment for
signals of change.
But here's the key Make itsystematic, not overwhelming.
Pick your domains.
Start with three One directlyrelated to your industry, one
related to your customers andone wild card that might seem
(09:59):
unrelated but could impact youin unexpected ways.
Set up your sources.
Mix formal sources industryreports, academic research with
informal ones social media,blogs, conferences.
And don't forget the mostunderutilized source of weak
signals your own employees.
The person in customer servicemight be hearing complaints
about things that don't existyet.
The sales team might be gettingquestions about capabilities
(10:22):
you've never considered.
Create a capture system.
This could be as simple as ashared document or as
sophisticated as an AI-poweredsignal detection platform.
The key is that it's easy touse and actually gets used.
Step three practice scenariothinking.
Once you're collecting signals,you need to make sense of them.
This is where scenario thinkingcomes in, and it's one of the
(10:42):
most powerful tools in theFuturist's toolkit.
Start simple Pick one trend ordriver that could significantly
impact your organization.
Then ask what if thisaccelerates?
What if it stalls?
What if it combines with thisother trend we're tracking?
Build out many scenarios notnovel-length documents, but
crisp, one-page stories abouthow these different futures
(11:04):
might unfold.
Focus on implications.
If this scenario happens, whatdoes it mean for our customers,
our business model, ourcompetitive landscape?
And here's something I learnedfrom Phil and his work on
speculative design Make yourscenarios tangible.
Create artifacts from thesefutures.
Design the product brochure fora world where this scenario has
happened.
(11:24):
Write the news article fromfive years in the future.
Make the future feel real.
Step four connect to strategy.
This is where a lot offoresight efforts die.
They stay as interestingintellectual exercises instead
of becoming strategic inputs.
Don't let this happen to you.
Create what I call strategytranslation sessions.
Take your scenarios and askhard questions.
(11:46):
If we believe this future ispossible, what should we be
doing differently today?
What capabilities do we need tobuild?
What assumptions in our currentstrategy might be wrong.
Build option portfolios Insteadof betting everything on one
future.
Develop strategies that workacross multiple scenarios.
Think of it as strategichedging You're placing smart
(12:07):
bets on different possiblefutures and measure everything.
Develop strategies that workacross multiple scenarios.
Think of it as strategichedging You're placing smart
bets on different possiblefutures and measure everything.
Track how often your scenariothinking influences actual
decisions.
Document when early signalshelp you avoid problems or spot
opportunities.
Build your evidence base forwhy this work matters.
Now let's talk about commonpitfalls, because I've seen more
foresight initiatives crash andburn than a discount airline in
(12:27):
a thunderstorm.
Pitfall number one the academicrabbit hole.
Foresight can be intellectuallyfascinating and it's easy to
get lost in building elaborateframeworks and methodologies,
while forgetting that the pointis to help your organization
make better decisions.
Stay grounded in business valueand always ask so what Now?
What?
Pitfall number two the crystalball expectation.
(12:48):
People will expect you topredict the future with perfect
accuracy and then getdisappointed when your scenarios
don't unfold exactly as written.
Manage expectations early andoften You're not a fortune
teller, you're a possibilitythinker.
Your job is to expand the rangeof futures your organization is
prepared for, not to predictexactly which one will happen.
(13:09):
Pitfall number three the shinyobject syndrome.
It's tempting to chase everynew trend and weak signal that
crosses your radar.
Resist this urge.
Focus on the signals and trendsthat matter for your
organization's specific contextand challenges.
Quality over quantity, always.
Pitfall number four the ivorytower problem.
(13:32):
If your foresight work happensin isolation from the rest of
the organization, it will remainirrelevant, no matter how
brilliant your insights.
Embed yourself in existingprocesses, build relationships
across departments and makeforesight feel like a natural
extension of what people arealready doing.
Pitfall number five the one-hitwonder.
Running one successful futuresworkshop doesn't mean you've
(13:54):
embedded foresight into your DNA.
This is about creatingsustainable capability, not
one-off events.
Think systems, not projects.
Now let me share some successstories that prove this stuff
actually works.
I'm not going to name companiesbecause you know NDAs and all
that, but these are realexamples from organizations I've
worked with or learned aboutthrough our guest interviews.
(14:14):
Case example number one theretail revolution.
One retail company I knowstarted with a single person in
their strategy team doing basicenvironmental scanning.
She was essentially theorganizational radar for
emerging consumer trends.
Within two years, this grewinto a cross-functional futures
team that included people frommerchandising, operations,
technology and customerexperience.
(14:36):
They started seeing signalsabout changing shopping
behaviors six months before thepandemic hit, when everyone else
was scrambling to figure oute-commerce.
They were already three stepsahead because they'd been
preparing for a future wherephysical and digital retail
would need to merge.
The result they not onlysurvived the retail apocalypse,
but actually gained market sharewhile their competitors were
closing stores.
(14:57):
Case example number two themanufacturing metamorphosis.
Another example a traditionalmanufacturing company that was
getting disrupted by newer, moreagile competitors.
They started with what theycalled Future Fridays monthly
sessions where employees fromdifferent departments would
share signals and brainstormimplications.
These sessions uncovered weaksignals about changing workforce
(15:19):
expectations, emergingtechnologies that could
revolutionize their productionprocesses and shifting customer
demands that their traditionalmarket research was missing.
Within 18 months, they'dcompletely restructured their
product development process,implemented new technologies
that increased efficiency by 40%and launched a new service line
that now represents 30% oftheir revenue the financial
(15:40):
services fortune.
And then there's the financialservices firm that embedded
foresight into their riskmanagement process.
Instead of just looking athistorical data to predict
future risks, they started usingscenario planning to explore
how emerging technologies,regulatory changes and social
trends might create new types ofrisks.
They identified cybersecuritythreats, regulatory shifts and
(16:01):
changing customer expectationsmonths before their competitors.
This early warning systemhelped them avoid several major
problems and position themselvesadvantageously in emerging
markets.
The common thread in all thesestories they started small,
stayed focused on business valueand built capability over time.
They didn't try to boil theocean.
They started by heating up acup of water and then gradually
(16:22):
expanded from there.
Let me give you some specifictactics that you can start
implementing tomorrow,regardless of which
organizational model you'reworking with.
Tactic 1.
The weekly signal drop.
Every Monday, send out a briefemail, two paragraphs max,
highlighting one interestingsignal or trend you've spotted
and its potential implicationsfor your organization.
(16:42):
Make it conversational, notacademic.
Think did you see thisinteresting thing?
Not pursuant to myenvironmental scanning
methodology.
Tactic two the scenario post-it.
When you're in strategicplanning meetings, carry
scenario post-its in your pocket.
These are one sentencedescriptions of different future
(17:02):
conditions.
What if our main competitorgets acquired?
What if regulation changes inthis direction?
What if this technology becomesmainstream?
Stick them on the wall duringstrategy discussions and ask how
does our plan work in thisscenario?
Tactic three the future customerinterview.
Instead of just talking tocurrent customers, start
(17:25):
interviewing people whorepresent potential future
customer segments.
Talk to people who are earlyadopters of relevant
technologies, youngerdemographics who might become
your customers in five years, orpeople from adjacent markets.
Ask them not just what theywant today, but what they
imagine they might want in thefuture.
Tactic 4.
The Assumption Audit.
(17:46):
Quarterly, gather your team andlist out the key assumptions
underlying your current strategy.
Then systematically challengeeach one.
What if this assumption iswrong?
What signals might suggest thisassumption is becoming outdated
?
How would we know if thisassumption was breaking down?
Tactic five the future pressrelease.
When you're developing newproducts or strategies, write
(18:07):
the press release from fiveyears in the future announcing
their success.
This forces you to thinkthrough not just what you're
building, but what success lookslike in a future context and
what changes in the environmentmight be necessary for that
success to happen.
Let's talk about how to measuresuccess, because what gets
measured gets managed and whatgets managed gets funded.
Traditional ROI measurementsdon't work well for foresight,
(18:30):
because the value is often inthe problems you avoid rather
than the opportunities youcapture.
It's hard to measure the valueof the disaster that didn't
happen because you saw it coming.
So here are some metrics thatactually work the early warning
score Track how often yourforesight work identifies
significant changes before theyimpact your organization.
Give yourself points forspotting things six months early
(18:50):
, 12 months early, etc.
The decision influence ratewhat percentage of major
strategic decisions incorporateforesight insights?
This should trend upward overtime as your organization
develops futures fluency.
The scenario stress test howoften do strategic plans get
tested against multiple futurescenarios before implementation?
(19:11):
This measures whether foresightis becoming part of your
planning DNA.
The Assumption Challenge Ratehow frequently do teams revisit
and challenge their underlyingassumptions?
Organizations with embeddedforesight should be constantly
updating their mental models.
The Signal-to-insightconversion Of all the signals
you collect, what percentagegenerate actionable insights?
(19:33):
This measures the quality ofyour scanning and analysis
processes.
And here's my favorite metricthe future fluency score.
Survey your organizationregularly about their comfort
with uncertainty, their abilityto think in scenarios and their
tendency to challengeassumptions.
Mature foresight organizationsshould see these scores
improving over time.
(19:53):
Now let's address the elephantin the room resistance to change
, because, let's face it, noteveryone in your organization is
going to be thrilled about thiswhole thinking about the future
thing.
You'll encounter the timehorizon skeptics who think
anything beyond next quarter isscience fiction.
You'll meet the control freakswho are uncomfortable with
uncertainty and prefer theillusion of predictability,
you'll run into the resourceguardians who think foresight is
(20:15):
a luxury the organization can'tafford.
Here's how to handle each ofthem For the time horizon
skeptics start with shorter timehorizons and gradually extend
them.
Show them how thinking sixmonths ahead helps with next
quarter's challenges.
Prove the value beforeexpanding the scope For the
control freaks.
Frame foresight as a way togain more control, not less.
(20:36):
Scenarios aren't aboutembracing chaos.
They're about being preparedfor different types of order.
You're not increasinguncertainty.
You're making uncertainty moremanageable For the resource
guardians.
Start with resource-lightapproaches.
Foresight doesn't require a bigbudget to begin.
It requires curiosity,systematic thinking and a
willingness to look beyond theurgent, to focus on the
(20:56):
important.
And remember you don't need toconvert everyone at once.
Start with the willing.
Demonstrate value and letsuccess speak for itself.
Nothing convinces skeptics likeresults.
Let me bring this all togetherwith what I call the DNA
integration framework, astep-by-step approach to
embedding foresight so deeplyinto your organization that
(21:18):
removing it would be like tryingto remove the operating system
from your computer Level oneimmune system.
This is where you build theorganization's ability to detect
change.
You're creating early warningsystems, environmental scanning
capabilities and signaldetection processes, the
organization starts to noticethings it used to miss.
Level two learning system.
(21:40):
Here you build theorganization's ability to make
sense of change.
You're adding scenario thinking, pattern recognition and
strategic analysis capabilities.
The organization starts tounderstand what the signals mean
.
Level three adaptation system.
This is where you build theorganization's ability to
respond to change.
You're creating flexiblestrategies, option portfolios
(22:02):
and rapid response capabilities.
This is where the organizationstarts to act on its insights.
Level four anticipation system.
At this level, the organizationdoesn't just respond to change,
it anticipates and shapes it.
You're building innovationcapabilities, market creation
strategies and future shapinginitiatives.
The organization becomes adriver of change, not just a
(22:25):
responder to it.
Level five imagination system.
This is the highest level,where the organization becomes
genuinely future creating.
It's not just adapting topossible futures, it's actively
creating preferred futures.
This is where you getbreakthrough innovations, new
market categories and genuinetransformation.
(22:46):
Most organizations start atlevel zero.
They're essentially flyingblind.
Getting to level one is a majorachievement.
Reaching level three makes youcompetitive.
Operating at level five makesyou a market leader.
The key is that each levelbuilds on the previous one.
You can't skip steps.
You can't go straight fromlevel zero to level five, but
you also don't need to waituntil you've perfected level one
(23:08):
before starting to work onlevel two.
These systems can develop inparallel.
As we wrap up, I want to leaveyou with something actionable.
Here's your 30-day challenge tostart embedding foresight into
your organization's DNA.
Week one assessment Map yourcurrent state.
Where is your organization onthe DNA integration framework?
Identify your allies.
Who else might be interested infutures thinking?
(23:30):
Document your pain points.
What problems could foresighthelp solve?
Week two signal setup.
Choose three domains to monitor.
Set up your scanning sourcesand capture system.
Start collecting signals.
Aim for two to three per week.
Week three sense making.
Analyze your signals forpatterns and implications.
Create your first mini scenariobased on a key trend.
(23:52):
Share your insights with yourallies.
Week four strategy connection.
Pick one current strategicchallenge.
Apply scenario thinking toexplore different approaches.
Present your findings tosomeone who can act on them.
That's it Four weeks to startbuilding your organization's
foresight capability.
Will you transform your entirecorporate culture in a month?
(24:14):
Probably not.
But will you start the processof embedding futures thinking
into your organization's DNA?
Absolutely, and here's thething.
Once you start this process, ittends to take on a life of its
own.
People start asking for moresignals, more scenarios, more
futures thinking.
And here's the thing Once youstart this process, it tends to
take on a life of its own.
People start asking for moresignals, more scenarios, more
futures thinking, because onceyou start seeing the future
(24:35):
clearly, it's hard to go back toflying blind.
Look, I'm not going to lie toyou.
Embedding foresight into yourorganization isn't always easy.
There will be skeptics whothink you're wasting time on
science fiction.
There will be setbacks whenyour scenarios don't unfold
exactly as written.
There will be moments when youwonder if you're just tilting at
(24:55):
windmills.
But here's what I've learnedafter decades in this field and
hundreds of conversations withfuturists, innovators and big
thinkers the organizations thatsurvive and thrive in our
rapidly changing world are theones that develop the capability
to see around corners, to spotopportunities before they become
obvious and to prepare formultiple possible futures
instead of betting everything onone prediction.
You have the power to make yourorganization one of them.
(25:17):
Whether you're starting as ateam of one or you're leading an
enterprise-wide transformation,the tools and frameworks exist.
The methodologies work.
The only question is whetheryou're ready to start.
So here's my challenge to youTake everything we've talked
about today and pick one thing,one signal, to track one
scenario, to explore oneassumption, to challenge.
(25:38):
Well, start there, start small,but start Because the future
belongs to the organizationsthat see it coming, because the
future belongs to theorganizations that see it coming
and it's up to people like youto help them develop that vision
.
That's all for today's episodeof the Think Forward podcast.
If you found this useful,please share it with someone
else who's trying to bringfutures thinking to their
(26:00):
organization.
And if you try any of theseapproaches, I'd love to hear
about your experience.
Drop me a line.
Until next time, stay curious,stay prepared and always think
forward.
Speaker 1 (26:15):
Thanks for listening to the Think Forward podcast.
You can find us on all themajor podcast platforms and at
wwwthinkforwardshowcom, as wellas on YouTube under Think
Forward Show.
See you next time.
Welcome to the Think Forward podcast, where we speak
with futurists, innovators andbig thinkers.
Come along with your host,steve Fisher, and explore the
future together.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Welcome back to the Think Forward podcast, where we
speak with futurists, innovatorsand big thinkers about what
lies ahead.
I'm your host, steve Fisher,and today we're diving back into
our being a Futurist serieswith something I'm genuinely
excited about and somethingthat's been on my mind after all
the incredible interviews we'vedone recently.
Back into our being a Futuristseries with something I'm
genuinely excited about andsomething that's been on my mind
after all the incredibleinterviews we've done recently.
You know we've talked toeveryone, from space
(00:31):
entrepreneurs like GuillermoSonnlein to innovation leaders
like Christian Mulroth atEtonics, and design futurists
like Phil Balagtas.
And there's one question thatkeeps coming up, steve.
This all sounds amazing, buthow do I actually get my
organization to think about thefuture beyond next quarter's
earnings?
Well, today we're rolling upour sleeves and getting
(00:52):
practical.
We're talking about embeddingforesight into your company DNA
not just having a futuresthinking workshop once a year
that everyone forgets about bylunch, but actually making a
part of how your organizationbreathes, thinks and operates.
And before you start thinking,great, another consultant
telling me to change everything.
Relax, I'm going to sharemodels that work, whether you're
(01:15):
a team of one trying to be thelone voice of reason or you're
lucky enough to have a wholecrew of future-minded rebels.
So grab your coffee, settle inand let's figure out how to turn
your company into atime-traveling, trend-spotting,
future-ready machine.
No DeLorean required.
All right, let's start with theelephant in the room, or should
I say the elephant in theconference room?
Most companies are about asforward-thinking as a rearview
(01:37):
mirror.
They're so busy fightingtoday's fires that they don't
notice tomorrow's volcanoerupting in the distance.
And I get it.
When you're dealing withquarterly reports, budget
constraints and that one systemthat crashes every Tuesday at 2
pm, thinking about what mighthappen in five years feels like
a luxury.
But here's the thing and thisis something we've learned from
every single guest we've had onthis show the companies that
(01:59):
survive and thrive are the onesthat embed foresight into their
very DNA.
Now, when I say DNA, I'm nottalking about some genetic
modification experiment gonewrong.
I'm talking about makingfutures thinking so fundamental
to how your organizationoperates that removing it would
be like trying to take thecaffeine out of a coffee shop
Technically possible, but you'dbe left with something that
(02:20):
nobody recognizes.
Let me tell you what embeddingforesight really looks like.
It's not about having a crystalball in the corner office or
hiring a full-time profit.
It's about creating anorganizational immune system
that can detect change before itbecomes a crisis and an
organizational learning systemthat can adapt faster than your
competition can say disruption.
Think about it this way If yourcompany were a person, would it
(02:43):
be the type who sees a stormcoming and grabs an umbrella?
Or the type who gets soaked andthen complains that nobody told
them it was going to rain?
We're aiming for umbrellagrabbing here, people.
Now, before we dive into thehow-to, let's talk about why
this matters.
More than ever.
We're living through what Icall the Age of Intelligence,
and if you've been following ourSuper Shifts framework, you
(03:05):
know we're dealing with ninemassive transformations
happening simultaneously, fromgenerational drift to bio nexus.
These aren't your grandfather'sbusiness challenges.
The pace of change isn't justaccelerating, it's accelerating
exponentially.
Remember when we thought theinternet was fast?
Now we've got AI that can writepoetry, robots that can do
backflips and teenagers who cancreate global movements with a
(03:27):
TikTok video.
If your organization is stillthinking in five-year strategic
plans, you might as well beplanning your vacation itinerary
with a sundial.
But here's the exciting part,and this is why I love this work
Companies that get foresightright don't just survive this
chaos, they thrive in it.
They're like surfers who'velearned to read the waves while
everyone else is still trying tofigure out which end of the
(03:49):
surfboard goes in front.
I've seen organizationstransform from reactive
firefighters to proactive waveriders, and the difference is
night and day.
They stop asking what happenedand start asking what's next.
They stop saying nobody couldhave predicted this and start
saying we saw this coming sixmonths ago.
So how do you build thiscapability?
(04:11):
Well, it depends on whereyou're starting from and, more
importantly, how many allies youhave in this noble quest to
drag your organization kickingand screaming into the future.
Let's talk about organizationalmodels for embedding foresight,
because not all heroes wearcapes.
Some wear business casual andtry to convince the C-suite that
thinking about the future isactually a good idea.
There are four models todiscuss.
(04:32):
Here's the first one.
Model one the lone wolfPopulation.
You Maybe you're the only personin your organization who thinks
strategic planning shouldinvolve more than just adding
10% to last year's numbers.
Don't worry, every revolutionstarts with one person, and you
might just be your company's Neo, except instead of dodging
bullets, you're dodging budgetcuts and eye rolls in meetings
(04:59):
If you're flying solo.
Your strategy is guerrillaforesight.
You're going to be like afutures thinking ninja,
embedding insights into existingprocesses so smoothly that
people don't even realizethey're thinking about the
future.
Start by becoming the signalspotter.
Make it your job to bringinteresting trends and weak
signals to every meeting you'rein, not in an overwhelming the
robots are coming way but in ahelpful hey, did you know this
(05:20):
thing is happening that mightaffect our project way?
Think of yourself as theorganizational early warning
system.
Next, become the scenariowhisperer.
When people are debatingstrategies, start asking what if
questions, what if this trendaccelerates?
What if our main assumption iswrong?
What if that competitor we'venever heard of suddenly becomes
(05:43):
relevant?
You're not being a pessimist,you're being a possibility
thinker.
And here's a pro tip from myown experience Always frame
futures thinking in terms ofbusiness value.
Don't talk about foresightmethodologies.
Talk about risk mitigation andopportunity identification.
Sometimes you need to speak thelanguage of the organization
before you can teach them a newvocabulary.
(06:05):
Model 2.
The dynamic duo Population Uplus 1 to 2 allies.
Congratulations, you've foundsome fellow time travelers.
This is where things getinteresting, because now you can
divide and conquer, create whatI call a futures underground
network.
One person focuses on scanningfor technological signals,
another on social trends,another on regulatory changes.
(06:25):
You're essentially creating aninformal intelligence network
that covers all the steepcategories social, technological
, economic, environmental andpolitical.
Start hosting future Fridaysessions, informal lunch
conversations where you sharesignals and brainstorm
implications.
Make them fun.
Bring snacks.
Make it the meeting peopleactually want to attend, not the
(06:46):
one they try to escape from.
Most importantly, startdocumenting everything.
Create a simple shared documentor Slack channel where you
capture signals, trends andinsights.
This becomes your evidence basefor when someone asks how did
you know that was going tohappen?
Model three the special forcesunit population 3 to 10 people
Now we're talking.
(07:07):
With a small but dedicated team, you can start building real
foresight capability.
This is where you can implementsomething approaching the
spectrum foresight method we'vetalked about on the show.
Create formal roles A chiefsignal scanner sounds cooler
than trend analyst.
A scenario builder, a strategytranslator, a person who turns
insights into actionablerecommendations, thank you.
(07:27):
These are half-day workshopswhere you bring together people
from different departments toexplore scenarios and
implications.
Make these cross-functional,because the best insights happen
(07:50):
when you get the accountingperson talking to the marketing
person about what AI might meanfor customer service.
And here's something I learnedfrom Christian Mulroth's work at
Itonics Create innovationchallenges based on your
foresight work.
Design a product for thisfuture scenario.
Solve this emerging customerneed.
Turn your futures thinking intoinnovation fuel.
(08:11):
Model four the enterprisetransformation population
organization-wide.
If you're lucky enough to worksomewhere that's ready for full
transformation, congratulations.
You're about to build a futuresoperating system.
This is where you create formalstructures, a foresight center
of excellence, futures thinkingintegrated into strategic
planning processes and foresightmetrics built into KPI outcomes
(08:33):
.
You're not just doing foresight, you're becoming a
foresight-driven organization.
But remember, with great powercomes great responsibility.
Don't let this become anotherbureaucratic monster.
Keep it agile, keep it relevantand keep it connected to real
business value.
Now let's get practical aboutimplementation.
I'm going to give you astep-by-step playbook that you
can adapt to your situation,whether you're Team Lone Wolf or
(08:55):
Team Enterprise Transformation.
Step one start with the so whatfactor?
Before you do anything else,figure out why your organization
should care about the future.
And because it's important isnot an answer.
What specific businesschallenges could foresight help
solve?
What opportunities might youmiss without it?
Maybe it's that your industryis being disrupted by
technologies you've never heardof.
(09:16):
Maybe it's that your customerbase is shifting in ways your
traditional market researchisn't picking up.
Maybe it's that your supplychain keeps getting blindsided
by unpredictable events thatactually had plenty of warning
signs.
Document these pain points.
Make them visible.
Nothing motivates change likepointing out that the thing
keeping everyone awake at nightmight actually be solvable.
(09:37):
Step 2.
Build your scanning system.
Every good foresight capabilitystarts with environmental
scanning.
You need to be systematicallymonitoring your environment for
signals of change.
But here's the key Make itsystematic, not overwhelming.
Pick your domains.
Start with three One directlyrelated to your industry, one
related to your customers andone wild card that might seem
(09:59):
unrelated but could impact youin unexpected ways.
Set up your sources.
Mix formal sources industryreports, academic research with
informal ones social media,blogs, conferences.
And don't forget the mostunderutilized source of weak
signals your own employees.
The person in customer servicemight be hearing complaints
about things that don't existyet.
The sales team might be gettingquestions about capabilities
(10:22):
you've never considered.
Create a capture system.
This could be as simple as ashared document or as
sophisticated as an AI-poweredsignal detection platform.
The key is that it's easy touse and actually gets used.
Step three practice scenariothinking.
Once you're collecting signals,you need to make sense of them.
This is where scenario thinkingcomes in, and it's one of the
(10:42):
most powerful tools in theFuturist's toolkit.
Start simple Pick one trend ordriver that could significantly
impact your organization.
Then ask what if thisaccelerates?
What if it stalls?
What if it combines with thisother trend we're tracking?
Build out many scenarios notnovel-length documents, but
crisp, one-page stories abouthow these different futures
(11:04):
might unfold.
Focus on implications.
If this scenario happens, whatdoes it mean for our customers,
our business model, ourcompetitive landscape?
And here's something I learnedfrom Phil and his work on
speculative design Make yourscenarios tangible.
Create artifacts from thesefutures.
Design the product brochure fora world where this scenario has
happened.
(11:24):
Write the news article fromfive years in the future.
Make the future feel real.
Step four connect to strategy.
This is where a lot offoresight efforts die.
They stay as interestingintellectual exercises instead
of becoming strategic inputs.
Don't let this happen to you.
Create what I call strategytranslation sessions.
Take your scenarios and askhard questions.
(11:46):
If we believe this future ispossible, what should we be
doing differently today?
What capabilities do we need tobuild?
What assumptions in our currentstrategy might be wrong.
Build option portfolios Insteadof betting everything on one
future.
Develop strategies that workacross multiple scenarios.
Think of it as strategichedging You're placing smart
(12:07):
bets on different possiblefutures and measure everything.
Develop strategies that workacross multiple scenarios.
Think of it as strategichedging You're placing smart
bets on different possiblefutures and measure everything.
Track how often your scenariothinking influences actual
decisions.
Document when early signalshelp you avoid problems or spot
opportunities.
Build your evidence base forwhy this work matters.
Now let's talk about commonpitfalls, because I've seen more
foresight initiatives crash andburn than a discount airline in
(12:27):
a thunderstorm.
Pitfall number one the academicrabbit hole.
Foresight can be intellectuallyfascinating and it's easy to
get lost in building elaborateframeworks and methodologies,
while forgetting that the pointis to help your organization
make better decisions.
Stay grounded in business valueand always ask so what Now?
What?
Pitfall number two the crystalball expectation.
(12:48):
People will expect you topredict the future with perfect
accuracy and then getdisappointed when your scenarios
don't unfold exactly as written.
Manage expectations early andoften You're not a fortune
teller, you're a possibilitythinker.
Your job is to expand the rangeof futures your organization is
prepared for, not to predictexactly which one will happen.
(13:09):
Pitfall number three the shinyobject syndrome.
It's tempting to chase everynew trend and weak signal that
crosses your radar.
Resist this urge.
Focus on the signals and trendsthat matter for your
organization's specific contextand challenges.
Quality over quantity, always.
Pitfall number four the ivorytower problem.
(13:32):
If your foresight work happensin isolation from the rest of
the organization, it will remainirrelevant, no matter how
brilliant your insights.
Embed yourself in existingprocesses, build relationships
across departments and makeforesight feel like a natural
extension of what people arealready doing.
Pitfall number five the one-hitwonder.
Running one successful futuresworkshop doesn't mean you've
(13:54):
embedded foresight into your DNA.
This is about creatingsustainable capability, not
one-off events.
Think systems, not projects.
Now let me share some successstories that prove this stuff
actually works.
I'm not going to name companiesbecause you know NDAs and all
that, but these are realexamples from organizations I've
worked with or learned aboutthrough our guest interviews.
(14:14):
Case example number one theretail revolution.
One retail company I knowstarted with a single person in
their strategy team doing basicenvironmental scanning.
She was essentially theorganizational radar for
emerging consumer trends.
Within two years, this grewinto a cross-functional futures
team that included people frommerchandising, operations,
technology and customerexperience.
(14:36):
They started seeing signalsabout changing shopping
behaviors six months before thepandemic hit, when everyone else
was scrambling to figure oute-commerce.
They were already three stepsahead because they'd been
preparing for a future wherephysical and digital retail
would need to merge.
The result they not onlysurvived the retail apocalypse,
but actually gained market sharewhile their competitors were
closing stores.
(14:57):
Case example number two themanufacturing metamorphosis.
Another example a traditionalmanufacturing company that was
getting disrupted by newer, moreagile competitors.
They started with what theycalled Future Fridays monthly
sessions where employees fromdifferent departments would
share signals and brainstormimplications.
These sessions uncovered weaksignals about changing workforce
(15:19):
expectations, emergingtechnologies that could
revolutionize their productionprocesses and shifting customer
demands that their traditionalmarket research was missing.
Within 18 months, they'dcompletely restructured their
product development process,implemented new technologies
that increased efficiency by 40%and launched a new service line
that now represents 30% oftheir revenue the financial
(15:40):
services fortune.
And then there's the financialservices firm that embedded
foresight into their riskmanagement process.
Instead of just looking athistorical data to predict
future risks, they started usingscenario planning to explore
how emerging technologies,regulatory changes and social
trends might create new types ofrisks.
They identified cybersecuritythreats, regulatory shifts and
(16:01):
changing customer expectationsmonths before their competitors.
This early warning systemhelped them avoid several major
problems and position themselvesadvantageously in emerging
markets.
The common thread in all thesestories they started small,
stayed focused on business valueand built capability over time.
They didn't try to boil theocean.
They started by heating up acup of water and then gradually
(16:22):
expanded from there.
Let me give you some specifictactics that you can start
implementing tomorrow,regardless of which
organizational model you'reworking with.
Tactic 1.
The weekly signal drop.
Every Monday, send out a briefemail, two paragraphs max,
highlighting one interestingsignal or trend you've spotted
and its potential implicationsfor your organization.
(16:42):
Make it conversational, notacademic.
Think did you see thisinteresting thing?
Not pursuant to myenvironmental scanning
methodology.
Tactic two the scenario post-it.
When you're in strategicplanning meetings, carry
scenario post-its in your pocket.
These are one sentencedescriptions of different future
(17:02):
conditions.
What if our main competitorgets acquired?
What if regulation changes inthis direction?
What if this technology becomesmainstream?
Stick them on the wall duringstrategy discussions and ask how
does our plan work in thisscenario?
Tactic three the future customerinterview.
Instead of just talking tocurrent customers, start
(17:25):
interviewing people whorepresent potential future
customer segments.
Talk to people who are earlyadopters of relevant
technologies, youngerdemographics who might become
your customers in five years, orpeople from adjacent markets.
Ask them not just what theywant today, but what they
imagine they might want in thefuture.
Tactic 4.
The Assumption Audit.
(17:46):
Quarterly, gather your team andlist out the key assumptions
underlying your current strategy.
Then systematically challengeeach one.
What if this assumption iswrong?
What signals might suggest thisassumption is becoming outdated
?
How would we know if thisassumption was breaking down?
Tactic five the future pressrelease.
When you're developing newproducts or strategies, write
(18:07):
the press release from fiveyears in the future announcing
their success.
This forces you to thinkthrough not just what you're
building, but what success lookslike in a future context and
what changes in the environmentmight be necessary for that
success to happen.
Let's talk about how to measuresuccess, because what gets
measured gets managed and whatgets managed gets funded.
Traditional ROI measurementsdon't work well for foresight,
(18:30):
because the value is often inthe problems you avoid rather
than the opportunities youcapture.
It's hard to measure the valueof the disaster that didn't
happen because you saw it coming.
So here are some metrics thatactually work the early warning
score Track how often yourforesight work identifies
significant changes before theyimpact your organization.
Give yourself points forspotting things six months early
(18:50):
, 12 months early, etc.
The decision influence ratewhat percentage of major
strategic decisions incorporateforesight insights?
This should trend upward overtime as your organization
develops futures fluency.
The scenario stress test howoften do strategic plans get
tested against multiple futurescenarios before implementation?
(19:11):
This measures whether foresightis becoming part of your
planning DNA.
The Assumption Challenge Ratehow frequently do teams revisit
and challenge their underlyingassumptions?
Organizations with embeddedforesight should be constantly
updating their mental models.
The Signal-to-insightconversion Of all the signals
you collect, what percentagegenerate actionable insights?
(19:33):
This measures the quality ofyour scanning and analysis
processes.
And here's my favorite metricthe future fluency score.
Survey your organizationregularly about their comfort
with uncertainty, their abilityto think in scenarios and their
tendency to challengeassumptions.
Mature foresight organizationsshould see these scores
improving over time.
(19:53):
Now let's address the elephantin the room resistance to change
, because, let's face it, noteveryone in your organization is
going to be thrilled about thiswhole thinking about the future
thing.
You'll encounter the timehorizon skeptics who think
anything beyond next quarter isscience fiction.
You'll meet the control freakswho are uncomfortable with
uncertainty and prefer theillusion of predictability,
you'll run into the resourceguardians who think foresight is
(20:15):
a luxury the organization can'tafford.
Here's how to handle each ofthem For the time horizon
skeptics start with shorter timehorizons and gradually extend
them.
Show them how thinking sixmonths ahead helps with next
quarter's challenges.
Prove the value beforeexpanding the scope For the
control freaks.
Frame foresight as a way togain more control, not less.
(20:36):
Scenarios aren't aboutembracing chaos.
They're about being preparedfor different types of order.
You're not increasinguncertainty.
You're making uncertainty moremanageable For the resource
guardians.
Start with resource-lightapproaches.
Foresight doesn't require a bigbudget to begin.
It requires curiosity,systematic thinking and a
willingness to look beyond theurgent, to focus on the
(20:56):
important.
And remember you don't need toconvert everyone at once.
Start with the willing.
Demonstrate value and letsuccess speak for itself.
Nothing convinces skeptics likeresults.
Let me bring this all togetherwith what I call the DNA
integration framework, astep-by-step approach to
embedding foresight so deeplyinto your organization that
(21:18):
removing it would be like tryingto remove the operating system
from your computer Level oneimmune system.
This is where you build theorganization's ability to detect
change.
You're creating early warningsystems, environmental scanning
capabilities and signaldetection processes, the
organization starts to noticethings it used to miss.
Level two learning system.
(21:40):
Here you build theorganization's ability to make
sense of change.
You're adding scenario thinking, pattern recognition and
strategic analysis capabilities.
The organization starts tounderstand what the signals mean
.
Level three adaptation system.
This is where you build theorganization's ability to
respond to change.
You're creating flexiblestrategies, option portfolios
(22:02):
and rapid response capabilities.
This is where the organizationstarts to act on its insights.
Level four anticipation system.
At this level, the organizationdoesn't just respond to change,
it anticipates and shapes it.
You're building innovationcapabilities, market creation
strategies and future shapinginitiatives.
The organization becomes adriver of change, not just a
(22:25):
responder to it.
Level five imagination system.
This is the highest level,where the organization becomes
genuinely future creating.
It's not just adapting topossible futures, it's actively
creating preferred futures.
This is where you getbreakthrough innovations, new
market categories and genuinetransformation.
(22:46):
Most organizations start atlevel zero.
They're essentially flyingblind.
Getting to level one is a majorachievement.
Reaching level three makes youcompetitive.
Operating at level five makesyou a market leader.
The key is that each levelbuilds on the previous one.
You can't skip steps.
You can't go straight fromlevel zero to level five, but
you also don't need to waituntil you've perfected level one
(23:08):
before starting to work onlevel two.
These systems can develop inparallel.
As we wrap up, I want to leaveyou with something actionable.
Here's your 30-day challenge tostart embedding foresight into
your organization's DNA.
Week one assessment Map yourcurrent state.
Where is your organization onthe DNA integration framework?
Identify your allies.
Who else might be interested infutures thinking?
(23:30):
Document your pain points.
What problems could foresighthelp solve?
Week two signal setup.
Choose three domains to monitor.
Set up your scanning sourcesand capture system.
Start collecting signals.
Aim for two to three per week.
Week three sense making.
Analyze your signals forpatterns and implications.
Create your first mini scenariobased on a key trend.
(23:52):
Share your insights with yourallies.
Week four strategy connection.
Pick one current strategicchallenge.
Apply scenario thinking toexplore different approaches.
Present your findings tosomeone who can act on them.
That's it Four weeks to startbuilding your organization's
foresight capability.
Will you transform your entirecorporate culture in a month?
(24:14):
Probably not.
But will you start the processof embedding futures thinking
into your organization's DNA?
Absolutely, and here's thething.
Once you start this process, ittends to take on a life of its
own.
People start asking for moresignals, more scenarios, more
futures thinking.
And here's the thing Once youstart this process, it tends to
take on a life of its own.
People start asking for moresignals, more scenarios, more
futures thinking, because onceyou start seeing the future
(24:35):
clearly, it's hard to go back toflying blind.
Look, I'm not going to lie toyou.
Embedding foresight into yourorganization isn't always easy.
There will be skeptics whothink you're wasting time on
science fiction.
There will be setbacks whenyour scenarios don't unfold
exactly as written.
There will be moments when youwonder if you're just tilting at
(24:55):
windmills.
But here's what I've learnedafter decades in this field and
hundreds of conversations withfuturists, innovators and big
thinkers the organizations thatsurvive and thrive in our
rapidly changing world are theones that develop the capability
to see around corners, to spotopportunities before they become
obvious and to prepare formultiple possible futures
instead of betting everything onone prediction.
You have the power to make yourorganization one of them.
(25:17):
Whether you're starting as ateam of one or you're leading an
enterprise-wide transformation,the tools and frameworks exist.
The methodologies work.
The only question is whetheryou're ready to start.
So here's my challenge to youTake everything we've talked
about today and pick one thing,one signal, to track one
scenario, to explore oneassumption, to challenge.
(25:38):
Well, start there, start small,but start Because the future
belongs to the organizationsthat see it coming, because the
future belongs to theorganizations that see it coming
and it's up to people like youto help them develop that vision
.
That's all for today's episodeof the Think Forward podcast.
If you found this useful,please share it with someone
else who's trying to bringfutures thinking to their
(26:00):
organization.
And if you try any of theseapproaches, I'd love to hear
about your experience.
Drop me a line.
Until next time, stay curious,stay prepared and always think
forward.
Speaker 1 (26:15):
Thanks for listening to the Think Forward podcast.
You can find us on all themajor podcast platforms and at
wwwthinkforwardshowcom, as wellas on YouTube under Think
Forward Show.
See you next time.
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