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June 13, 2025 17 mins
This Week Explained breaks down the unprecedented Israeli offensive against Iran, dubbed 'Operation Rising Lion.' Explosions rocked Tehran as Israel targeted nuclear and missile sites, along with key military and scientific leadership, including the reported death of IRGC Commander Gen. Hossein Salami. This massive strike marks a dramatic escalation, pushing the long-simmering conflict into open confrontation. We analyze Israel's justification, the U.S.'s distancing stance, and the critical question: how will Iran retaliate after such a devastating blow to its leadership? A must-listen for understanding the rapidly evolving situation in the Middle East.

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Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
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Speaker 2 (02:29):
Hello and welcome to this week Explain. So for today
it's just me Kurvin and you can consider this a
bit of a special bonus episode. But I do want
to say we're not going to be releasing a podcast
on Monday. That's due to some scheduling conflicts between Tanna
and myself. No, I do want to get into a
reporting from overnight from the Middle East and listen, this

(02:53):
is a series of events that is causing a lot
of stress, not only in the Least region, but around
the world. I'm sure we are all waking up to
a dramatically altered geopolitical landscape. And this is all due
to this long simmering, often clean DestinE conflict between Israel

(03:14):
and Iran, and once again it has exploded into an open, public,
large scale confrontation. Now I'm sure everyone has seen and
heard that Israeli officials have confirmed what we actually warned
on the podcast last week, which was to be on

(03:34):
the lookout for a major Israeli offensive, and that major
offensive has been carried out on the Iranian state. You
might be asking yourself what is the stated goal here? Well,
according to Israel, the stated goal is to cripple Iran's
nuclear program along with its strategic missile and air defense capabilities.

(03:55):
We are talking about a significant military operation, and Israel
is called this operation Operation Rising Lion. So let's break
down what we know so far. So first of all,
that the scale of this attack is truly unprecedented. This
wasn't just a surgical strike. It was a broad, multifaceted assault.

(04:18):
Targets included no nuclear missile sites, but beyond infrastructure, the
Israelis also targeted key personnel. This is very different from
targeted strikes in the past. We're hearing confirmation from Iranian
state media that the commander in chief of the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps, the ira GC General Hussein Salami, he

(04:40):
was killed in this operation and he wasn't alone. Two
top nuclear scientists and another senior general are also confirmed
dead at this moment. There are also unconfirmed reports that
are circling around that Iran's Chief of Staff, Major General
Mohammad bai He, may also have been eliminated. So this

(05:02):
wasn't just about destroying facilities. This was about decapitating the
very leadership of Iran's most sensitive programs. Mean what's particularly
striking here is the clear shift in Israeli tactics. For years,
we've seen Israel engage in targeted assassinations of individual scientists,
are covert sabotage operations. We've discussed those before on this podcast.

(05:25):
We've got sticky bombs on car doors, roboticisted assassinations. Even
the Masade, Israel's intelligence agency, which for him to have
led in many of the crown level operations overnight tonight.
They have a long history of covert actions inside Iran.
I mean think back. We've got the seizure of Iran's

(05:47):
nuclear archives in twenty eighteen. We've seen the destruction of
over one hundred Iranian drones in twenty twenty two. This
is what has happened over many, many years is now
culminated into a one night effort to completely dismantle Iran's
nuclear program. Now, Iran, for its part, has consistently accused

(06:10):
the Masad of multiple other attacks. They accused them of
attacks on the intense and Karage nuclear sites, which we
now have seen through footage were particularly targeted in these
strikes that happened overnight. Fulso blended Massad for the assassination

(06:31):
of its nuclear chief previously, and now we're seeing reports
of covert Masad agents within Iran doing the same thing overnight.
Now that historical context is great and we need to
have that when we're having these discussions. But look, what

(06:55):
happened now is completely different from what's happened over the
last few years. Is overt. This is broad and it's
aimed at leadership en mass. That is the key distinction here. Now,
I will say it is also targeting critical infrastructure within Iran.
I know we're particularly talking about nuclear facilities, but ballistic

(07:19):
missile facilities, air defense sites, things like that are being
targeted as well. Now I'm sure everyone listening probably wondering
what's the justification here a unilateral decision to strike Iran.
In Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin nettya who stated that Iran

(07:41):
has taken quote steps that it has never taken before,
steps to weaponize this enriched uranium end quote. He claims
Iran is rapidly producing a massive stockpile ballistic missiles and
that if it's not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear
weapon in a very short period of time. Benjamin att Yahoo,

(08:03):
through Israeli intelligence, believes that it's possible for Iran to
produce a weapon, a nuclear weapon, within just a matter
of months. Not in Israeli Defense Force official kind of
echoed this same sentiment. He said they had recent intelligence
that Iran was quote racing for a nuclear bomb and

(08:23):
they were in a quote strategic window of opportunity in
a quote to act. Now, Israel has publicly indicated this
operation would take several days, and they're going to continue
this as long as it takes. But do you want
to say it's crucial to note that Iran denies it
is pursuing a nuclear weapon. Now, we always trying to

(08:45):
frame both sides of this conversation. You can have your
own opinion. We on this podcast have our own opinions,
but when we're talking about these situations, we've got to
come from a nuanced view and we've got to take
both both sides and what they're saying. This now another
kind of tidbit of information here, and I know we've

(09:07):
talked about on the podcast over the last few weeks.
It's this growing relationship between the Trump administration and Iran
trying to trying to figure out a way for Iran
to have nuclear energy without the capability of building a
nuclear weapon, and so neither the US nor other international

(09:29):
allies have issued similar warnings about Iran racing toward a
bomb at this specific moment. This is a significant point
of tension currently between President Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin
net Yahoo, but the United States and Israel as a whole,
and speaking of the United States, the US position is

(09:51):
a bit nuanced, to say the least. Secretary of State
Marco Rubio was quick to publicly distance the US from
this operation. He stated, I want to quote him here,
quote tonight, Israel took unilateral action against Iran. We are
not involved in strikes against Iran, and our top priority
is protecting American forces in the region. Now we know

(10:14):
that the US privately notified several allies that Israeli strikes
were imminent, made it clear that they would not be involved.
We all saw this this week leading up to the
strikes that did happen, that the US sent out reports
to personnel within the Middle East, both civilian and military,

(10:36):
to increase the heightened awareness in the region. They called
on civilians who were in the region that were maybe
vacationing or did not have a critical role for the
United States administration to leave immediately, and obviously that was
all leading to this attack. Here. Now let's get make

(11:00):
its own and make it obviously clear here. President Trump
himself is publicly opposed to an Israeli attack on Iran's
nuclear sites. And he publicly stated this just hours before
the attack. And that's because he thinks he had a
nuclear deal that was still possible to be signed and

(11:23):
be put into effect that did not allow Iran to
produce or to have the capabilities of building a nuclear weapon.
Now here's the rupe, and it's a big one. Despite
these public denials, Iran is almost certainly going to blame
the United States. They are Israel's greatest ally. That means retaliation. Now,

(11:47):
while retaliation is likely against Israel, we know that that's
going to happen, it is also highly probable that a
retaliation against US interest and personnel in the region is
going to happen. To get ahead of this, Secretary of
Rubio explicitly warned Iran against targeting US assets. Already, the
US is taking precautions. They've withdrawn the diplomats military families

(12:11):
from Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait. They're also bolstering air defenses around
its facilities in the Gulf region, and so they fully
prepared for Iran to attack those sites. And that's why
looking predictive predictive analysis and looking into the future, it's

(12:32):
highly probable Iran is going to in some way retaliate
at a moment that they can. Another big question is
what form will Iran's retaliation take. More importantly, let's say,
how long will it take for them to mount that retaliation,
especially after losing such a significant, significant chunk of their leadership.

(12:55):
You know, you've got the reported deaths of key figures
we spoke about Hossainsalami, potentially the chief of staff was assassinated.
This represents a severe blue to their command and control structure.
And while Iran has deep chains of command, the removal
of these top tier leaders in this operation, that's going

(13:18):
to inevitably create disruption and honestly could cause a delay
in a coordinator response. Now, the immediate aftermath has already
seen ripples of panic throughout the globe. We've seen sirens
blurring across Israel Defense Minister Israel Kots, that's Israeli Defense

(13:38):
Minister Israel Kots. He's declared a national state of emergency.
For Israel bracing for immediate missile and drone attacks. Israel's
closed its airspace. Bengurion Airport has been completely closed, all
aircraft have been removed from that airport, and also Iran
is suspending flights out of Tehran's International airport. So everyone

(14:00):
is getting prepared for a large scale conflict, which has
moved from possible into probable after these attacks. Now, this direct,
large scale confrontation pushes the long simmering Cold War Gray
War conflicts to a new dangerous level. The risk of

(14:25):
a full blown regional war involving major military powers is
now significantly elevated. And on the diplomatic front, any prospect
of a US Iran nuclear deal, which was we're supposed
to see a six round of talks scheduled for Sunday,
had we put out a podcast on Monday, those would
have been some of the talking points that we have,

(14:45):
but now that seems to be completely wiped out by
these strikes by Israel. Now, looking ahead, what are we
looking at in the next coming hours, next few days.
That's going to be critical to keep an eye on.
What does it Iran do. So we're gonna be we're
watching for Iran's response. Once the morning hits, we get

(15:06):
more reporting out of this, We're going to assess the
full extent of the damage inflicted. We're going to analyze
how quickly Iran can regroup after such a devastating blow
to its leadership. So stick with us over the next
few weeks. This is going to be pushed to the
top of our talking points. You're going to hear about

(15:27):
it each week as this conflict continues to escalate. But
I wanted to get something out right now, just because
we'd been Tina and I have been tracking this for
a while between each other. We have talked about this
through text messaging that this was something that we needed
to get out and get to the listeners, just so

(15:50):
do you know what's going on? You know the possible
effects that this is going to have. We're already seeing
oil prices shoot up. It's going to affect economies worldwide.
What's it going to do for US troops in the
region that is held by US Central Command or Syncom.

(16:11):
They're going to do something, and especially if Iran does
carry out a strike on US personnel, that is going
to bring in SYNCOM forces on an attack on Iran
or help Israel in their attack, So does Iran push
the United States to get involved in these efforts. It's

(16:33):
something to keep an eye on. So we're going to
continue to monitor this rapidly developing situation for now. That's
all for this urgent update on this week. Explain, as
I said, I'm curvin seeing it cannot be here right now.
We won't have an episode on Monday due to scheduling conflicts.
I just want to reiterate that where we're not stopping

(16:55):
or pausing, but we will have two weeks of information
to put out the following Monday, so we will be
back soon with more analysis and as always, stay safe
out there.
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