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June 22, 2025 18 mins
The Middle East is on edge after the United States launched strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, marking a significant escalation in tensions. Is this a precursor to a wider war, or a calculated move to force Iran back to the negotiating table?

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Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
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Speaker 2 (02:29):
Welcome to another special edition of This Week. Explain that
is now two within the month of June, and it's because,
as everyone was probably going to sleep on Saturday night,
I was waking up Sunday morning, the United States got
involved with the Israeli strikes on Iran. Now we will

(02:52):
put out an episode. It will be delayed a bit
as I unpack everything that's happened overnight. But I just
wanted to put out a very brief episode just to
let let everybody know what's going on from an intelligence perspective,
give a little bit of an update, and then possibly

(03:13):
what this means. We're gonna go a lot more in
depth later on once we do the full podcast, and Tianna
has tons and tons of questions about, you know, why
the US got involved, what does this mean for the future,
And I know you guys have those same exact questions.
So we're going to get into all of that later
this week when we put out the full episode. But

(03:36):
I thought it'd be very important to get an episode
out right now, just to let everybody know that this
has happened. Does this mean everybody's talking about war? And
where now at war with Theyran? Does this mean war?
What's the difference between conflict and between war? And you know,

(03:56):
as as people have joked over the last few years
of ending the global war on terrorism, and this was
a continued and sustained conflict. The United States has been
in across the globe to prevent future terrorist attacks within
the United States. So, if you're wondering why Congress declares

(04:18):
has the ability to allow the president to declare war.
The president cannot unilaterally decide to declare war on a country.
That's where this fits in to that decision making and
the ability for President Trump to declare these strikes on Iran.

(04:39):
So it switched facttrack a little bit. Well, how did
all this begin? As we all know, Israel began to
strike Iranian nuclear sites and they assassinated various nuclear scientists
and key leaders because they said that they had intelligence
that within the next few weeks two months, Iran was
ready to make a nuclear weapon that they would then

(05:03):
use on Israel. That started a chain of events. That
question that they gave President Trump questions on whether the
US would get involved. The US said that they would
get involved defensively to help Iran or to help Israel
protect itself, but would not strike within the borders of Iran.

(05:27):
After saying that, President Trump then said Iran should come
back to the negotiating table, negotiate in good faith, and
get a nuclear deal in place. Otherwise, in the next
two weeks, the US may or may not strike various
sites in Iran. That was a few days ago, and

(05:50):
now the US has performed those strikes. And so what
are US military aircraft and missiles targeting within these strikes?
And it is the most notably the Foordo Nuclear site,
which is a top secret underground nuclear facility, and israelizes

(06:13):
no capability to do any damage to that site because
it is too far underground. However, the United States has
weapons that allows for the United States to target those
facilities or that particular facility, penetrate with bunker busting bombs
and destroy the facility. Now, as of this moment, obviously

(06:36):
there are conflicting reports. You've got on one side, President Trump,
as always with Trump Perbley saying it was a great,
beautiful strike that destroyed all the facilities completely, and you
have Iran, obviously coming from a different angle, saying that
they actually moved everything out from those facilities, and the

(06:58):
only thing that was destroyed were the entrants and exits
of the facilities. So the facility stays intact and the
only damages are to the entryways and exits. Who's correct
in that, Well, it's going to take a long time
for us to know, because we're going to need satellite
imagery and from an open source perspective, we're going to

(07:20):
need unclassified open source imagery. Now, does the US have
certain assets that they can use to do battle damage
assessment and identify what actually happened? Obviously, and obviously those
are classified. We're not going to know that from a
layman's perspective or from a civilian perspective for a long time.

(07:42):
And when I say a long time, and the world
that we live in now of instant news, anything I
feel anything more than a day is a long time.
As I woke up earlier this morning from my undisclosed location,
I woke up to the news very early and as

(08:04):
it was happening, and the continuous back and forth of
thousands of tweets, hundreds of thousands of tweets, thousands of
telegram messages, and everyone's saying one thing or another. So
the fog of war will clear and we are going
to understand more of this, and that's more of the
reason why we are going to wait to put out

(08:26):
an episode. So we did the what happened, right, So
we did the what so far? Now the so what
you know? What does this mean? Well, obviously it means
that Iran needs to decide whether they will retaliate. What
does that look like? Well, right now, no one knows.

(08:46):
Iran's gonna have to make that decision. The US is
being very loud about stopping about telling Iran, do not retaliate.
Take this as your final warning. Just you let the
if this happen, we can stop. No more strikes. We're

(09:07):
not going to the US saying we're not going to
assassinate the Supreme Leader Holmini. We're gonna stop right here
because we have destroyed your nuclear facilities. We have now
very much diminished your ability to create a nuclear weapon.
Come back to the negotiating table. Let's stop all of this,

(09:29):
and now Iran will say they have a right to
defend themselves and to retaliate, and they have to do
this to show face to their people and honestly to
the rest of the Middle East. Home Iran was seen
as one of the largest threats in the Middle East,
two countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the Gulf States, like Kuder.

(09:51):
But now they are completely weakened their proxies, most all
of their proxies have lost their leadership. Much of the
leadership within the IRGC has gone. And so they are
very they are very weakened now, and they can decide
to show strength, to show outward strength by retaliating. As

(10:14):
I'm speaking right now, they are sending rockets to Israel.
But that does not show strength towards the United States.
And so what would that look like? Mainly it would
look like attacks on US basis within the Middle East,
most notably basis within Iraq, targeting US troops, targeting US

(10:41):
naval assets. You just had two new aircraft carriers from
the Indo Pacific join into the Middle East, And so
what do we do from here? What does Yeron do?
Do They do a brief, quick retaliation targeting certain areas

(11:03):
where they know US troops will not be harmed or injured,
and then they can frame that to their people as
we retaliated against this and we can now stop. I
think that that's a miscalculation. I think we are in
a situation where there's a tit for tat, and so

(11:27):
if Iran decides to retaliate, that's going to be met
with the full force of the US military. If Iran
makes a strategic miscalculation and they strike US ships within
the Middle East, I think we are at the moment
of a full scale war. I think it would be

(11:47):
very brief. The just the sheer amount of US presence
within the Middle East right now that can hit Iran
from all angles, and you have Israel as well, striking
from within the borders of Iran. I think that would
it would be a miscalculation in Iran. The regime as

(12:10):
we know it right now in Iran would be no
more and a new regime would start.

Speaker 1 (12:15):
Now.

Speaker 2 (12:16):
Trump has been adamant in public that he does not
want to start He does want does not want to
see regime change within the borders of Iran. So you've
got to take him at his word what he's saying.
And so I think Omini in Iran needs to sit
think about what's going on here. If it were me,

(12:38):
if I was the leader of Iran and had gotten
this far, I might start considering having that sit down
and decide that you know, as of right now, nuclear
weapons may not be a strategic benefit to us, So
we'll see, we'll see what happens there. Now. On the
flip side to that, what does this mean for China? Right?

(13:01):
I think not enough people are talking about what could
happen with China getting more aggressive towards Taiwan or getting
more aggressive towards Taiwan knowing that that invasion is a
time clock, it's a ticking time clock or a ticking

(13:24):
time bomb, and it's a race from one side of
the island of Taiwan to another. That's for the People's
Liberation Army. When I say that, I mean once indications
are that China is invading Taiwan, the United States military

(13:46):
is racing in the Indo Pacific to get assets in
place in order to go after the People's Liberation Army
and pushback against this this attempt for a takeover of Taiwan.
On we have two aircraft carriers that removed from the

(14:07):
end of Pacific in to the Middle East, so that's
two military assets. It's two less military assets in the
end of Pacific, and that is a much further race
towards Taiwan than they would typically be at. So what
is China going to do. We're going to talk about

(14:28):
that on the podcast when that comes out. I want
to see what the indications are over the next couple days,
to see what China is doing, because I think it's
very important to look at that. This is not just
about the Middle East right now. What we are looking
at we're racing towards a global conflict. We talk about
World War three. Everything's going to start World War three,

(14:51):
and it is never one particular singular event that we
can look back to and say, yes, this is the
exact moment that it started. It's always this is something
that happened and it led to a chain of events
that in the end started a global conflict. We still

(15:12):
have the war in Ukraine, with Putin publicly saying he's
ready to take more land within Ukraine. He wants to
take more cities and make them Russian cities again. So
there's a lot going on. There's gonna be a lot
to get into this week for the podcast, and I
think that's a good stopping point here, a good little

(15:35):
update for everyone. I appreciate everybody listening. If you enjoy
the podcast, please share with other people, Please put it
out on social media. We're trying to get the word
out here because I think we do something that's different
from what most people do, which is an event happens,
we rush to have an opinion on it without a

(15:56):
lot of context. We do have opinions on podcast, and
we do rush to opinions Tianna and I personally among
each among each other. But what we really try to
do is flush out those opinions, look at the truth
in the matter, find the nuance, and present that present

(16:19):
what's actually happening, as opposed to you know, yeah, I
know this happened, but I really think this is going on.
There's no I really think this is going on. I
come from a from an intelligence perspective. We bring in
assessments in those assessments that I usually use or from
a probability scale, and so you'll never hear me say

(16:42):
for certain that one thing or another is going to happen,
and to present various different avenues, various different bits of information,
give an assessment on if it's unlikely, if this is possible,
or if I'm thinking this is probably what's going to happen.
So if you enjoy that, please push out on social media.

(17:03):
Please tell your friends. The best thing is, as you're
listening whatever you know, whatever po Chase or pie Catcher
podcast app you were listening from, if you would just
go rate, review would be would be great. But you
don't have to review, You don't have to spend a
lot of time. Just rate it, you know, give five stars,

(17:24):
four stars, whatever, do stay If you give it one star,
please let me know why. Please comment and let us
know so we can fix those kind of things. But
thank you, thank you so much for listening. I wish
I was coming on with some better news, but it
looks like we're on the fast track to large scale conflict,

(17:47):
at least a regional conflict I should say, not large scale,
a regional conflict in the Middle East, and we'll see
if that leads to large scale combat operations. So, as always,
thank you so much for listening. Stay safe out there.
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