Israel-Iran War, Ukraine Strikes & Russia-China Spy Games

This week, the world feels less stable as the long-simmering conflict between Israel and Iran erupts into open, large-scale warfare. We also dive deep into Ukraine's persistent ability to strike deep into Russian territory and unpack recent intelligence suggesting Russia and China's "no-limits partnership" is a tense, full-blown spy war.

Are you ready to understand the forces shaping tomorrow's headlines? Follow "This Week Explained" wherever you listen to podcasts and hit subscribe to get alerted to new episodes! If you enjoyed this deep dive, please leave a quick rating or review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify – it truly helps others discover the show. You can also engage with us by leaving comments on Spotify. Discover more great podcasts from the Leon Media Network at leonmedianetwork.com, and follow us on social media @thisweekexplained.
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Episode Transcript

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remember that This Week Explained is part of the awesome
Leon Media network. You can discover more great podcasts over
at leonmedianetwork dot com. All right, let's get to why
you're here, which are all of those stories that are
shaping your world in real time? This week on the podcast,
We're diving deep into the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, and
in the least we'll also unpack recent intelligence that Russia

(03:30):
and China may not be the best friends that we've
been led to believe they are. As always, we're starting
a discussion in Ukraine, and when we talk about conflicts
like this one, it's easy to get lost in the
sheer scale of it all. But what's been striking me
recently is Ukraine's persistent ability to strike deep within Russian territory,
targeting their defense industrial base. It's not just about the

(03:52):
front lines anymore, is it.

Speaker 2 (03:54):
No, it absolutely is not Tiena. You're correct on that one.
And this development or this is actually a development that
really speaks to Ukraine's evolving capabilities and strategic thinking. This
is without the support of the United States. Just recently,
the final military equipment from the Biden administration has made

(04:15):
its way to Ukraine. So now Ukraine is working with
only what Western Europe is providing and what they're creating themselves,
and they're still able to strike deep within Russian territory.
Now we've seen reports, for example, of Ukrainian forces striking
deep inside Russia, and it's not like they're just going
after some random targets. They are striking critical infrastructure that

(04:39):
is really critical for the Russian military. Recently, Ukraine hit
a fuel plant, and that fuel plant is actually a
critical manufacturer of basic components for Russian explosives, Russian ammunition
and rocket fuel.

Speaker 1 (04:55):
I remember reading that the head of the Ukrainian Center
for Countering Disinformation, Lieutenant Andre Kovalenko, really highlighted the significance
of that strike, mentioning the massive annual production of ammonia
and ammonium nitrate, both key for explosives. Sounds like they're
hitting them where it hurts economically and militarily.

Speaker 2 (05:14):
Yeah, exactly. And it's not just that one plant that
they hit. They've also hit many other facilities in Samara,
one of the russianal blosts. These facilities are producing explosive
material components, and they're catalysts for oil refineries that ultimately
produce aviation and rocket fuel. And they're also producing diesel

(05:35):
at these facilities. So this isn't about isolated incidents. It
is a sustained strategic campaign to degrade Russa's ability to
wage war by targeting their industrial backbone. So for the folks,
at home. Imagine someone consistently hitting the factories that make
the vital parts of your country's military. It's this slow strangulation.

(05:57):
It's not a knockout punch. They're not knocking out Russia.
They're just slowly chipping away and it's incredibly effective in
the long run.

Speaker 1 (06:07):
So what is the messaging here?

Speaker 2 (06:09):
To me?

Speaker 1 (06:09):
It almost feels like Ukraine is saying, you can hit us,
but we can make you too, even deep in your
own territory, which I know early on in the conflict
they tried to stay out of Russia entirely.

Speaker 2 (06:21):
Yeah, absolutely, they were not striking in Russia and it
was all part of right as at least the Biden
administration at the time said here are the weapons, but
you cannot use those weapons within Russian territory. Then they
open that up to a little sliver of Russia that
they can hit. So what Ukraine is doing now is
or what they did at that point was say, Okay,

(06:43):
we're going to make our own weapons, our own drones,
all this stuff, and we can do whatever we want
with it. Now, that's what we're seeing with these strikes
deep within within Russian territory, and it just like you said,
This is exactly what they're saying. There was a time
where Russia, you thought you were safe from US attacking you.

(07:05):
That's no longer true. And it is a powerful message
from Ukraine. It's not just because the immediate tactical impact
of this, but there's a psychological effect to this as well,
and it forces Russia to divert resources to air bases.
They have to now protect assets they previously thought, what,
we're safe, and it creates a sense of vulnerability within Russia.

(07:28):
From an intelligence perspective, watching how Russia adapts to this
is going to be key. Are they genuinely going to
harden their targets or are they going to shift production
to another site?

Speaker 1 (07:42):
All right, well, shifting gears slightly, because amidst all of
this destruction, there are glimmers of something else happening. We
saw the fourth round of prisoners of war exchanges on
June twelfth, and then another round on June fourteenth. As
someone who's seen the reality of captured person so andel,
how significant are these exchanges, especially when they involve wounded

(08:05):
soldiers or those held for extended periods.

Speaker 2 (08:07):
Of time, well for the families, for the soldiers themselves.
These exchanges are everything. This is a lifeline. It's a
glimmer of hope in the darkest of circumstances. And when
you're a ployt when you are deployed, oftentimes the thought
of what happens if you're captured is a quiet dread

(08:28):
that eats away at you. So to see wounded POWs,
those held since twenty twenty two come home, it's a
testament to the persistent, often unseen, often untalked about diplomatic
efforts that are occurring behind the scenes. President Zelenski himself
specifically noted that many of the exchange Ukrainians were captured

(08:50):
early in the conflict. There's also the return of twelve
hundred bodies. These are soldiers who are no longer living.
They were held captive, predominantly military personnel, and that is heartbreaking,
but it provides a measure of closure for countless families.
You and I talk about this all the time. The

(09:11):
absolute necessity for families to know what happened to their
loved ones, just to know whether they're alive or whether
they did perish, is key to some of these families.
Even in the worst news, there's this form of peace
that happens.

Speaker 1 (09:28):
And yet there's always the political undercurrent. The Russian Ministry
of Defense claims that they're ready for daily exchanges while
also accusing Ukraine of being unwilling to reciprocate. It feels
like they're trying to weaponize even the humanitarian gestures.

Speaker 2 (09:43):
You're right, they absolutely are. And it's a classic Russian tactic.
You accuse the other side of what you yourself are doing,
or a failing to meet a standard that you are setting.

Speaker 1 (09:55):
I wouldn't say that it's just Russia who employs this package.

Speaker 2 (09:59):
Yeah, I guess you're right on that one. I think humans.
This is a classic human tactic.

Speaker 1 (10:05):
What humans do? You know?

Speaker 2 (10:07):
Yeah, and you're right, that does happen all the time.
The US does it. Sometimes you're failing to meet our
standards that we put Well, that's our morals, right, we're
going to talk about the Middle East, and obviously that's
going to be something that comes up putting your morals
onto someone else. But in this case, Russia wants to

(10:29):
discredit Ukraine. They want to deflect from their own documented abuses.
And it is frustrating for all of us to watch
because these exchanges should be purely humanitarian, but this is war,
and in war everything becomes a tool.

Speaker 1 (10:44):
On the flip side, Russia seems to be preparing for
a very long game. We saw President Putin himself discussing
the twenty twenty seven to two thousand and thirty six
State rearmament program, which focuses on air defense, space systems
and AI in military tech, it's not just about winning

(11:05):
the current war, is that it's about being ready for
the next one, potentially against NATO.

Speaker 2 (11:11):
Exactly right, putting rhetoric about a what he calls quote
universal air defense system in quote in the need for
advanced digital technology and the need for AI, that's very
telling to all of us. It suggests that they are
absorbing lessons from Ukraine, particularly those drone attacks within deep

(11:35):
within Russian territory. They see their vulnerabilities and they're trying
to fix them for the long haul. The goal here
isn't just to defeat Ukraine. It's to build a military
capable of protecting power and if necessary, confronting a larger,
more technologically advanced adversary like NATO.

Speaker 1 (11:54):
Okay, but how do they finance this? Russia's economy was
struggling even before the sanction, and they've sustained significant losses,
especially in their Black Sea fleet. Are they betting on
increased oil prices perhaps from the instability in the Middle East.

Speaker 2 (12:12):
Yeah, that is the multi million or rather the multi
billion dollar question at hand. Financing is a huge hurdle
within Russia. Their defense industrial base has historically been inefficient,
and the US has as well. That's another thing that
I think is historically human. It is the inefficiency of

(12:36):
the defense industrial base within this The sanctions on Russia
have only exacerbated all of this. Now, while higher oil
prices could provide a temporary boost, it's not a sustainable
long term solution, and the global energy market is quite
volatile look at it right now. So what Russia's doing

(12:57):
is they're hoping for a combination of its continued circumvention
of those sanctions that we keep talking about that we
know don't work right now, They're going to do increase
domestic production and then perhaps a reevaluation of their strategic
priorities reconstructing reconstructing the Black Sea fleet, like you talked about.

(13:18):
That's going to be an enormous undertaking just in and
of itself, and it's going to cost them a large
sum of money.

Speaker 1 (13:26):
Well, you and I both know that Russia kind of
has a habit of employing these short term solutions and
saying that they're going to come up with something better
long term, and then just winding up leaning fully into
their short term solutions that aren't very sustainable, like their
apartment buildings that they built for all those people moving

(13:47):
into the cities that they're still having to live in
that are really they would be condemned here. I think
a lot of those closes. And finally, in our discussion
of this year's long more in Ukraine, it was interesting
to see the Southeast European summit in Odessa with so
many leaders reaffirming support for Ukraine, but then there's Serbia

(14:08):
attending but not signing the declaration, and President Vuchich talking
about investing in Ukrainian reconstruction but facing outrage from Moscow.
It just highlights the complex web of allegiances and pressures
in the region, doesn't it.

Speaker 2 (14:23):
Absolutely it absolutely does. Serbia's position is particularly delicate. They
have historical ties to Russia. They also aspire to join
the EU. Vuscha's attendance that was a significant symbolic gesture
towards Ukraine, even if he didn't even sign the full declaration.

(14:43):
His willingness to consider reconstruction efforts speaks volumes about this
potential shift in Serbia, or at least a hedging of bets. Now.
Moscow's outrage shows how sensitive these relationships are for them
and for Putin. Say they see any crack in their influence,
that's a direct challenge to the Russian state. So it's

(15:06):
this constant dance for countries in that region. They're trying
to balance their own national interests because Russia's on their borders.
With these immense geopolitical pressures from both the Global South
and the global West.

Speaker 1 (15:22):
It also reminds us that even with all the big
picture strategic moves, the human elements, the diplomatic tight ropes,
and the everyday decisions of leaders and individuals continue to
shape the course of events. I think this is a
good moment to shift to this week's explosive news story,
well staying explosive. First of all, that wasn't upun or anything.

(15:45):
But oh yeah, it definitely fells like an understatement, doesn't it.
I Mean, as we talk today, in this very moment,
the world fills a lot less stable than it did
just last week, and as our listeners know, we haven't
I felt stable in years, just tuning in or perhaps
just catching their breath. The long simmering, often overshadowed conflict

(16:11):
between Israel and Iran has erupted into the open, and
now we're looking at large scale what warfare, another major
conflict in the Middle East. So Curvin, please walk us
through the initial shockwaves. What happened early Friday morning on
June thirteenth. I know you released a you know, small
episode on Thursday, I believe, or Friday.

Speaker 2 (16:33):
Yeah, but and lied to people and lied to said
we were not going to record today.

Speaker 1 (16:38):
Oh you did? You said that? Yeah? He is a liar.
Y'all were here all.

Speaker 2 (16:43):
Right, here we are recording. We matched our schedules up,
look at us for you guys, Yeah.

Speaker 1 (16:49):
For you, our schedules have aligned. All right, get to it.
How's what's going on? Please?

Speaker 2 (16:55):
I will, yes. And that's a great intro into this
new but not so new conflicts. And like Sianna said,
I did put out an episode as it occurred, you know,
as things were ongoing. But I know everyone who's listening
right now, and I do say everyone, you much rather

(17:17):
this format of the podcast where Tiana and I are
able to talk through these situations. This is too curious
humans trying to make sense of the world. And here
is the bottom line. Friday morning dawned with massive explosions
ripping through Tehran. Israeli officials did not wait. They quickly
confirmed what was already an open secret. This was a

(17:40):
major Israeli offensive and they code named it Operation Rising Lion.
What's their stated objective in this, Well, they're not being
ambiguous about it. They are saying they want to cripple
Iran's nuclear program and its strategic missile in air defense capabilities.
This wasn't a person in strike against a single target.

(18:02):
It was broad, it was multifaceted.

Speaker 1 (18:07):
And the targets were both infrastructure and chillingly personnel. Right
they may they didn't hide anything. They're like, we are
going for your top military officials. You cannot hide. We're
talking beyond just military facilities.

Speaker 2 (18:22):
Yeah, beyond known nuclear and missile sites. They went after
key military and scientific leaders. Iranian state media even quickly
confirmed the death of the commander in chief of the
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps the ier GC. That's General Hossein Solami.
Two other top nuclear scientists and another senior general also

(18:45):
are confirmed killed, and though unconfirmed at this moment, there
are reports circulating that Iran's Armed Forces chief of staff,
that's Major General Mohammed Bagari. It might also be among
one of the casualties Sienna. From my experience, decapitating leadership
like that in this opening barrage of missile strikes and

(19:09):
bombs going off, we're not talking about destroying capacity. It's
about disrupting command and control at the highest levels. This
was a fundamental blow to the Iranian regime.

Speaker 1 (19:22):
Well, I mean, this is something that Israel has done
several times in their many conflicts around that area of
the world. That's not a new technique for them, and
it is definitely a significant blow. And for years we've
talked about Israel's more surgical, almost shadowy operations inside Iron,

(19:44):
like the sticky bombs and the robot assisted assassinations. Even
the Masade, now confirmed to have been heavily involved in this,
has a history of these precise covert actions like seizing
nuclear archives, destroying drones, the strikes on nuclear facilities. Kurvin
is this Operation Rising Lion a fundamentally new phase like

(20:08):
more overt more comprehensive.

Speaker 2 (20:12):
Yeah, there was. There's a reason I put the episode out. That's,
you know, one of the very few times that we've
done something like that, putting something out as it happens.
We did it for Russia's invasion, and I did it
for this one because we had talked about last week, right.
You asked what to look for as we talked about
Iranian discussions for their their nuclear capabilities, and I told

(20:35):
you I.

Speaker 1 (20:36):
Didn't think it would happen this soon, though they did
not mess around. I thought there would be a little
bit more time before they dove in. But now they
went for it.

Speaker 2 (20:48):
They certainly did. I said, I told everyone to be
on the lookout for that, not knowing whether it would
happen this week. And now we're finding out that a
lot of the talk in public between net Yahoo and
the Trump administration, putting out all of these teasers about
a ceasefire in Gaza and you know, signing deals and

(21:12):
all of the you know, Israel standing down, was all
a ploy to get Iran to not be on the
lookout for for what Israel was gonna do. This is
a dramatic escalation from Israel. I don't say that lightly.
The scale and overtness of Operation Rising Lion. This is

(21:34):
on a different plane from what they have done in
the past. It signals Israel's intent to move beyond deterrence
or this piecemeal disruption focusing mainly on proxies and sending
a few missiles into Iran. This is a more direct
uh systemic dismantling of what they perceive as an existential threat.

(21:55):
They're no longer just plucking off individual leaves. They're attempting
to strike at the root and the branches simultaneously. Now,
I'm not going to sugarcoat it. This is a gamble,
but it's one they've clearly decided is necessary and their justification.

Speaker 1 (22:12):
Kurvin Prime Minister Netanya who stated Iran has taken quote
steps to weaponize this enriched uranium end quote, and could
produce a nuclear weapon in a quote very short time
end quote. Yet others, including the US and our allies,
haven't issued similar warnings. That's a huge disconnect.

Speaker 2 (22:31):
Yeah, I think you're correct to say the US hasn't
publicly issued these warnings, but US intelligence has been warning
of similar findings. We've talked about it on the podcast ourselves,
and just before these attacks and what really helped me
identify that an attack was coming from Israel was that
the IAEA issued a statement earlier in the week that

(22:53):
Iran has not been complying with regulations set in place.
I think this is why Israel saw this is urgent.
This is an immediate threat to them. There's an idea
of official who claimed they had intelligence indicating Aaron was
quote racing for a nuclear bomb quote is pushing them

(23:15):
into a quote strategic window of opportunity end quote. Now
they believe that they had to act now before they
lost visibility on this. Whether that intelligence is fully shared
or whether US intelligence agencies get to see that intelligence
and they can interpret it differently, It's clear Israel saw

(23:37):
this as their moment. They've announced this operation is going
to take several days, and it's going to continue as
long as it takes. This is not just one to
three missile barrages, as long as it takes.

Speaker 1 (23:52):
That phrase just it hangs in the air, doesn't it.
It reminds me of those long days during your deployments,
when the end was always an abstract concept and not
a date on the calendar. And speaking of which, the
US response has been swift and pointedly detached Secretary of
State Marco Rubio immediately stated the US was not involved

(24:14):
yet Israel asked US to join.

Speaker 2 (24:17):
Yeah, they did, and at public distancing from the US.
That's a deliberate strategic plays. It's this tight rope walk
do you have. On one hand, the US doesn't want
to be dragged into a full scale regional war in
the Middle East. They've pulled diplomats, military families from Iraq, Bahrain,
even Kuwait, and they've beefed up air defenses in the Gulf.

(24:41):
Now Rubio did warn Iran, do not target US interests.
But then you have this on the other hand, Israel,
the US's closest ally explicitly requested US involvement, especially for
these deeply buried Florida uranium enrichment sites, these sites well underground.

(25:03):
His real beliefs is beyond their solo capabilities.

Speaker 1 (25:07):
So Israel's asking for help with a particularly challenging target,
and the US is saying no, at least for the now.
For now, and at least out in the open, we
don't know what's going on behind the scenes. To be
perfectly honest, This comes after reports Trump even told NETANYAHUU
previously he'd consider striking it if necessary. It's just a
mixed message all around. It is yeah to keep up,

(25:30):
like what's the truth?

Speaker 2 (25:32):
Yeah, exactly, We'll give you the truth here. But it's
tough when you have an administration that is very mixed
and we'll say one thing one day and then something
completely different the next day. Now, the White House's current
denial of direct involvement, stating now is the time to
launch an attack. Now is not the time to launch

(25:54):
an attack. That came from the White House. That actually
contrasts with past conversations. The US actually wants a diplomatic
resolution to this, and they are asking Iran to give
up its nuclear program and that that would be the
fastest path to peace. Now we know Iran is said
that they're not going to do that. The refusal, this

(26:17):
refusal of the US now to join Israel's connect operation
means that Israel is going at this alone, at least offensively,
because the US is providing defensive capabilities. And yet Sienna,
despite these public statements, Iran still blames the United States.

(26:37):
They were always going to blame the United States because
it is Israel's strongest ally, and that means the risk
of Iranian retaliation against US assets remains incredibly high, even
with Washington's efforts to create this distance from Israel. That's
the part that keeps me up at night, knowing that
you know, our people in Central Command and Sentcom they're

(27:02):
facing this, They're having to deal with this uncertainty where
they are.

Speaker 1 (27:06):
It's a gut punch, isn't it knowing that those who
serve those we care about are now potentially an even
greater harms way, regardless of our official stance. But Kurvin
Aaran did retaliate after the initial Israeli strikes. What did
we see there?

Speaker 2 (27:23):
Yeah, they certainly did. Overnight and into the morning of
June the fourteenth, Iran launched further waves of missiles and drones.
Israeli reports confirm at least three civilians killed dozens wounded,
with strikes hitting central cities like Tel Aviv and areas
near strategic military infrastructure. Now, most were intercepted, thankfully, but

(27:44):
some did get through. And here's the critical observation. The
volume and intensity of these retaliatory waves, those are decreasing
from Iran. And that's a strategic When there is this
strategic explanation for why that is.

Speaker 1 (28:00):
So you were saying they're losing punch like the punch
to their attacks. So tell us why this is the
kind of insight that changes how you see the battlefield.

Speaker 2 (28:11):
Yeah, and it comes down to launch capacity versus stockpile.
Iran has a massive missile stockpile. I think there's a
misconception there that they don't have thousands of missiles. They've
estimated upwards of three thousand or over three thousand ballistic missiles.
The problem here is they don't have three thousand launchers,

(28:33):
so they rely on a relatively small fleet of mobile
launchers or the tel's. The last estimate has it fewer
than one hundred and fifty for their medium and long
range systems, which is what would be needed in order
to strike back against Israel. And these tls aren't like
firing a rifle. They require setup time, mobility, camouflage so

(28:55):
that Israel Israeli planes can't destroy them before they can
get the launch is off. And this forces Iran to
launch in staggered volleys, not all at once.

Speaker 1 (29:07):
So they can't just unleash everything they have at once,
and Israel is exploiting that.

Speaker 2 (29:11):
Limitation exactly Israel has achieved air superiority in Iran, and
they've successfully penetrated Iranian radar coverage. This means they're not
just dodging missiles, they're tracking and destroying those mobile launchers
as they are used. Each TL taken out doesn't just
reduce the number of missiles in the next folly, it

(29:33):
slows down the entire pace of Iran's retaliation. That says
two immediate profound effects. One, Iran's ability to overwhelm Israel's
air defenses with saturation attacks that diminishes significantly, And two,
the overall intensity and frequency of Iran's follies drop, even
if they still have thousands of warheads just gathering dust

(29:56):
there in storage.

Speaker 1 (29:59):
And also know they once they fire from a location,
they have to quickly move to another location because Israel
knows where they fired from, and they're coming for you
guys and somewhere else. It's fascinating and terrifying all the ones.
It means Israel isn't just defending, they're actively degrading Iran's

(30:20):
ability to even fight back effectively. We're seeing follow up
is really strikes today, targeting those launch facilities.

Speaker 2 (30:28):
Right yep, exactly, They're they're hitting suspected TEO storage locations.
I know they hit near Mahabad Airport and also a
military radar installation in Isfahan. This is a sustained, systematic
effort and it's putting them into pressure on Supreme Leader

(30:49):
Kameni's regime. And while they're still issuing public threats in Iran,
their leadership is grappling with the confirmed loss of key
IRGC commanders, the very people who would plan and execute
a robust response. Their air defensive systems are degraded, and internally,
the Iranian public is increasingly anxious. They feel vulnerable like

(31:12):
they never have before.

Speaker 1 (31:14):
In the proxies we've talked about Iran's axis of resistance.
Hamas has Bela Iraqi militias and Huthis. Have they jumped
into the prey because I mean, they wouldn't have gotten
as far as they did without Iran's backing.

Speaker 2 (31:27):
Absolutely, And I would say to the answer to that
question is yes and no. We're seeing several missile launches
from Yemen, so the Houthis are getting involved. I don't
think they care about their lives or anything. But Hamas
has Belah the militias in Iraq, they remain largely restrained.

(31:49):
It's a clear indicator that they're calculating the cost. The
price of full scale retaliation will be incredibly high. They
likely fear drawing preemptive Israeli or even American strikes against
their own assets. That's a key piece of information for
US Tienna for gauging the broader regional impact. The fact
that they're holding back despite Tehran's public vowels of Israeli ruin,

(32:14):
That to me speaks volumes.

Speaker 1 (32:17):
Do you think Iran's going to continue backing these proxies
after they kind of didn't come to their rescue when
they needed it? What do you think?

Speaker 2 (32:26):
I mean? Now, I am one they can't, like economically,
they can't continue to back these groups.

Speaker 1 (32:36):
Talking about them not being able to do it from
a financial standpoint, I'm like, is it going to be punished?
Are they going to be punished for not backing Iran
right now?

Speaker 2 (32:46):
It's a tough question to answer because my thoughts are
does the Iranian regime exist in the near future. It's
completely devastated. It's been at the past twelve months Aaron
have been historical. Yeah, they've lost their president, everything, and the.

Speaker 1 (33:06):
Fluid right now in flux trying to see what happened.

Speaker 2 (33:11):
Okay, and they're yeah, and they're also dealing domestically with
a certain sect of people who are are upset and
they want freedoms. Yeah, and so they're protesting so that
not only are they dealing with this, you know, external
threat from Israel, there are internal threats among their own

(33:31):
people with these domestic protests.

Speaker 1 (33:34):
We've talked to a few of those people. Yes, yeah,
So looking ahead, what do you think is next? What's
the likely trajectory for this conflict? Because it feels like
we're in uncharted waters right now.

Speaker 2 (33:48):
Yeah, and we absolutely are. I would say, first of all,
expect ongoing Israeli suppression of those launch platforms. They're going
to continue to locate and destroy missile launchers. They're going
to destroy command infrastructure in real time. This means Iran's
capacity for direct, high volume, high volume missile retaliation that's
going to continue to degrade as well. The more of

(34:12):
those launchers that are destroyed, the less Iran can fire
in a given window.

Speaker 1 (34:16):
No.

Speaker 2 (34:16):
Secondly, with the missile options curtailed, I think we're going
to see a shift to asymmetric responses from Iran. Look,
we're gonna see cyber attacks against Israel, potentially cyber attacks
against the United States. I think we'll see terrorism abroad
via proxies or activating those proxies in more limited or

(34:38):
deniable ways. I've seen reports of several terror groups that
have issued statements to prepare for sleeper cell attacks across Israel,
Western Europe, and yes, even the United States.

Speaker 1 (34:50):
All of this is frankly a nightmare scenario for the
citizens of those regions. But it is also a nightmare
for intelligence agencies. Isn't it the distributed, less traceable threats?

Speaker 2 (35:03):
Yeah, exactly. It becomes a different kind of fight. And
you know, there's also the diplomatic nightmare that happens the
options they are collapsing. There are Iran formally rejected renewed
nuclear talks with the US earlier today, the path to
a negotiated solution seems to have completely vanished, at least

(35:25):
for now. I mean, why.

Speaker 1 (35:28):
Would they why would they talk to us? They don't
trust m Yes, So for now that's the part that
kind of sticks with me. The US is refusing to
join this fight directly, even with Israel's plea for four
to oh. But as senior White House officials said, whatever
happens with Israel strikes cannot be prevented. They're not joining,

(35:49):
but they're not stopping it either, and they're still holding
out hope for a future future peaceful resolution. If Iran
gives up its nuclear weapons program, Bill's like a delicate,
dangerous dance.

Speaker 2 (36:05):
Yeah, very dangerous dance. And the bottom line here is
start as Israel gains air dominance and systematically eliminates Iran's launchers,
the ability to project conventional power into Israeli skies diminishes.
The war is no longer symmetrical. Every passing hour tilts
it further in Israel's favor when it comes to direct

(36:26):
missile exchanges. The US is on the sidelines here, at
least for the kinetic fight, but the presence there is
still felt. They are still helping Israel defend its borders,
as as Jordan, as its Saudi Arabia. Minds, you and
Iran will certainly factor all of them into any long
term retaliatory calculus.

Speaker 1 (36:47):
That paints a sobering picture, Curvin, and one that makes
you grateful for every quiet moment, knowing the stakes for
so many people across the globe. We will definitely continue
monitoring them, bring you the facts, and try to make
sense of what feels like an increasingly complicated world. For now,
let's shift our focus to the change in rhetoric towards

(37:09):
Russia and China and new intelligence that suggests they aren't
as friendly as we all assumed. Remember those videos of
them at the Olympics together, just hanging out. They were
like frat browing out together in their little box.

Speaker 2 (37:23):
Yes, yes, we will remember.

Speaker 1 (37:25):
Yeah, we will unpack all of that, But first we
need to take a quick break for our message from
our sponsors. Stay with us, We'll be right back. Welcome back, listeners.
As we hinted at before the break, we are diving
deep into a story that has been quietly bubbling up,
one that completely upends the public narrative we've all been fed.

(37:46):
We're talking about Russia and China, and it's not the
no limits partnership that we hear about on the world stage,
is it? No?

Speaker 2 (37:54):
Not at all? In fact, a recently leaked document from
Russia's Federal Security Service, the f IT, paints a picture
of deep paranoia within Moscow regarding Beijing's intentions. It's an
eight page revelation that essentially calls China the enemy.

Speaker 1 (38:11):
Well, we we called this two egos of that size,
acting like they were both on a level playing field
and they considered each other, you know, equals and partners
and everything. I was like, this is not gonna last.
One of them is gonna want to have superiority over
the other, because that's just how it works in.

Speaker 2 (38:32):
The You absolutely called it months ago, even a year ago.

Speaker 1 (38:36):
No, while they were freaking hanging out at the Olympics,
I was like, this is not going to end well,
kind of like how we called you know, Trump and
Elon falling out because they have two big old egos too.
You know, it's just doesn't work out. Whenever you have
a bunch of ego maniacs, you know, trying to volley

(38:56):
for superiority, it just it doesn't work out. So moscows
not mincing words directly stating that, well, not directly, I guess,
indirectly stating that China is the enemy. And that is
a start. Contrast to the handshakes and the beaming smiles
that we see that passed between Putin and Ji Jimpang,

(39:19):
what exactly does this documentary bal.

Speaker 2 (39:23):
Well, I think the core fear that is revealed in
the document is that Russia genuinely believes China is eyeing
parts of its Far East. And we're talking about regions
like blad of all Stock, historic territories that some Chinese
nationalists claim were unfairly seized by Russia in the eighteen
hundreds both area. Yes, absolutely, And look at that Russia

(39:49):
unfairly seizing land. Where we heard that story before all
through history?

Speaker 1 (39:56):
Yeah yeah, yeah for real.

Speaker 2 (40:00):
And what I'm referring to here is the eighteen sixty
Treaty of Peking. It's seeded Vladivostok to Russia set the
border along the Amora and Yusuri rivers. But the FSB
believes China is actively researching old Chinese communities in the
area to build a case that this land, much like Taiwan,

(40:23):
was originally theirs.

Speaker 1 (40:25):
Kind of like how Russia's well just wadled right into
the Ukraine. They're like, this was ours first, and you're
and we bring this up every single time. We were
not every single time, but we bring it up quite frequently.
How far back do we need to go to find
people like the original borders of these countries? How far back?
What is the legitimate border for these countries. So yeah,

(40:49):
at historical grievance being weaponized for future territorial claims. It's
a classic, it's a classic play. But how concrete are
these fears? Is it just history revisionism or are there
more active measures that could possibly be taken in the
near future.

Speaker 2 (41:05):
Yeah, it is more than revisionism Tianna. The document highlights
that in twenty twenty three, China's Ministry of Natural Resources
actually mandated that new maps must use Chinese names for Vladi,
Bolstock and also several other cities. The FSB interprets this
as a deliberate attempt to subtly convince the local populations

(41:27):
in those areas that the land should belong to China.
Oh where have we heard that before? Ukraine? So it's
pot and kettle right. This is a very subtle, long
term game of influence operations from China, and.

Speaker 1 (41:46):
It sounds like Russia isn't just worried about their land.
What else is on the FSB's worry list when it
comes to China.

Speaker 2 (41:54):
So beyond territorial integrity, the FSB is deeply concerned about
China's growing ambitions in the Arctic, specifically the North Sea
Route Now, for China, this route is a golden ticket.
It's a faster, cheaper, shortcut for goods from Asia to Europe.
So if China gains significant control or access it reshapes

(42:15):
global trade routes, it gives them immense leverage. And then
there's some more classic intelligence concern stealing military secrets. The
FSB fears China is actively trying to pilfer Russian military intelligence,
including details about their operations in Ukraine.

Speaker 1 (42:34):
So even with a war going on in Europe, Russia
is dedicating resources to worrying about Tran's clandestine activities on
their own turf. China has clandestine activities all over place. Y'all.
Remember the police, Remember the police, the pup stations they
set up here in New York City. That speaks volumes
about how significant this threat is perceived to be by Russia.

(42:56):
And it sounds like their counterintelligence efforts are active.

Speaker 2 (43:01):
Yeah, they are. This particular document explicitly states that Chinese
spies are trying to recruit Russian agents, even targeting Russians
married to Chinese nationals. And then on the flip side,
China is apparently keeping a very close watch on the
twenty thousand Russian students studying in China even giving lie

(43:21):
detector tests to their own agents when they return from Russia.
It's a full blown, tense and fast moving real world
spy war, a.

Speaker 1 (43:33):
Spy war while publicly touting a new limits partnership. It's
a fascinating, if not horrifying dichotomy. I remember you telling
me years ago when we would talk about these grand alliances,
that there's always an undercurrent of self interest, there's always
a calculation behind the scene.

Speaker 2 (43:52):
Yeah, it's always why I talk about the nuance of it, right,
and Russian intelligence has never fully trusted China, no matter
how friendly things appear on the surface. That no limits
partnership might be tactically useful for now, but that's because
of the given geopolitical landscape. But in the long term,

(44:13):
Russia unequivocally views China as a significant danger. It is
a partnership of convenience, not of genuine trust.

Speaker 1 (44:24):
And that makes perfect sense when you consider the historical animosities,
the geographic proximity, and the sheer power dynamics that are
at play here. It's the kind of complex, often contradictory
relationship that intelligence agencies grapple with every single day, And
thanks to this leak, we now get a glimpse into
this reality. Like I said, we called it right from

(44:45):
the jump. So Caurvin, thank you for breaking this down
for us. It really highlights how much goes on behind
the scenes that the public never hears about, unlike here
in America, where we hear about everything currently everything from
about it eventually.

Speaker 2 (45:01):
They last few months. Yeah, I mean for this, we're
going to write a book about it.

Speaker 1 (45:06):
Huh, you're going to write a book about it?

Speaker 2 (45:08):
No, no, no, no, that's what everybody does, right. Oh, like,
let's keep all these secrets like the recent one with
the Biden administration. Oh yeah, he doesn't have dementia. That's
not happening. And then the very people who were saying
that wrote a book about how they were concerned he
has dementia and it was true, which a for profit

(45:31):
We aren't dumb.

Speaker 1 (45:33):
It was obvious. So is there anything else you want
to discuss?

Speaker 2 (45:38):
Nope, I think that's it for now.

Speaker 1 (45:41):
Well, I just wanted to wish Happy Father's Day to
all the dads and stepdads and single moms and single
dads and grandpas who acts as a paternal figure in
their grand babies, lives and gay best friends, and just
anyone who is an active participant in the development of

(46:04):
all the little minds that we have sprouting up, the
next generation that's going to take over this planet from
us whenever we finally retire. Just thank you. Happy Father's
Day to all you dads and daddy figures out there.

Speaker 2 (46:19):
We love all of you, and thank you Tianna.

Speaker 3 (46:23):
Happy, yes, Happy Father's Day to you. The best dad
on the planet. Are the three kids friggin adore you,
your their favorite man ever?

Speaker 1 (46:35):
And you know, thank you to our dads. For better
or worse, We're here. Not just kidding.

Speaker 2 (46:42):
They're still looking out for us.

Speaker 1 (46:43):
They certainly are. They certainly are. So just wanted to
give a little shout out because it is Father's Day
today as we record this, and we hope that you
guys have a wonderful day.

Speaker 2 (46:56):
And beautifully, said Tienna.

Speaker 1 (46:57):
I don't know if it was beautiful, but it you know,
I was trying to get everybody in there, every possibility
in there. Anyways, thank you so much for listening to
this week explained. We hope that you found it both
informative and engaging. If you have any feedback or suggestions
for future episodes, We'd love to hear from you. For
more in depth coverage of these stories and more, be

(47:18):
sure to follow us on social media at

Speaker 2 (47:19):
This week explained Tianna, Thank you so much, and until
next week, stay safe out there.