August 25, 2025 • 46 mins
This week, we break down the latest diplomatic efforts in the war in Ukraine, the dangerous new tactics complicating aid efforts in Gaza, and the brutal resurgence of ISIS on the African continent. Is a path to peace finally on the table, and what are the new global threats we need to be watching?
Episode Highlights
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Episode Highlights
- Ukraine Diplomacy: We discuss the new framework for a long-term peace deal in Ukraine, including a shift in Russia's position on security guarantees and the potential for a direct meeting between Putin and Zelensky.
- Gaza's Humanitarian Crisis: We explore the dangerous new tactic of militants impersonating aid workers, the ongoing stalemate in ceasefire negotiations, and the internal political pressures facing Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.
- ISIS Resurgence: We analyze the brutal comeback of ISIS in Africa, the strategic use of their newsletter Al-Naba to broadcast their intentions, and the chilling, religiously motivated violence targeting Christian communities.
Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/this-week-explained--6199515/support.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
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awesome Leon Media Network. This week, we're diving into the
latest from Ukraine in Gaza and the threat of ISIS
on the African continent. We're going to start, as always,
(03:22):
with the latest developments from the war in Ukraine. It
has been an incredibly busy couple of weeks, starting with
President Trump's summit with Vladimir Putin and Alaska and now
culminating in President Zelensky's trip to Washington with a host
of European leaders, you know, his posse, or as you
called them, the Avengers, the avengers. He at least he
(03:43):
had people backing him up this time. Oh for sure. Yeah,
it is the optic of that. Come on, man, He's like, look,
you may not agree with what I want Trump, but
these people all agree.
Speaker 3 (03:56):
With Did you see the leaders, the photo of all
of the leaders surrounding Trump.
Speaker 2 (04:02):
Yeah, that's literally why you called them the avengers, right,
because of that photo. So where do we begin, Like,
what is the main takeaway from all of this frantic activity?
Speaker 3 (04:13):
Look, I think the biggest shift that we've seen is
that a path to a long term peace deal, not
just a temporary ceasefire, is kind of on the table
depending on who you talked to. For a long time,
the focus was just trying to stop the fighting at
least for a little while. Now the conversation has turned
(04:36):
to a permanent solution, and the key to that shift
came from that Trump Putin meeting in Alaska two weeks ago. Accord,
according to the US envoy, the Russians did make some
concessions as soon as they landed there in Alaska, immediately
during that summit.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
And what exactly were those concessions.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
I think the most significant concession appears to be a
willingness to entertain the idea of security guarantees for Ukraine.
I say entertain doesn't mean that they agreed to do that,
but there is this, uh, there's this thought that as
the war rages on and it keeps going, that they
(05:21):
are going to uh, they're going to concede, They're going
to capitulate to those security guarantees for Ukraine. It's a
crucial point because for so long Russia has viewed any
talk of security for Ukraine as a non starter in negotiations.
Now it seems that they are open to an agreement.
It's agreement that would not uh, that would not involve
(05:43):
NATO membership for Ukraine, but it would provide that Article
five like protection that you and I t and I
have been talking about on this podcast for quite a while.
Is one of the things we'd like to see, and
this is a major strategic development. It could allow Ukraine
to get the security it needs to actually agree to
a deal, and they would agree to that deal without
(06:05):
crossing one of Russia's biggest red lines, which is NATO membership.
Speaker 2 (06:10):
What do you think changed for Russia for them to
even entertain this, because up to this point, you know,
they've drawn that hard line and they've stuck to it.
Speaker 3 (06:20):
Yeah, I think it's. Uh, there's a few things here,
One of which I think may surprise people is how
forceful President Trump has been in trying to get this
deal made. So he's made some remarks towards Russia about
some tariffs that may be on the horizon. You know
we don't like, say, well, it's not that we don't
(06:41):
like sanctions. Here, I'm actually working up a post talking
about how the sanctions have not really affected Russia. Russia's
kind of been able to to move past the sanctions
by using the Global South. So I think that's one
part of it. In the the other part of all
(07:01):
of this is that Putin needs a win right now.
If he can get that eastern portion of Ukraine to
be Russian territory, to be seen internationally even as Russian territory,
that's a huge win for him, and he could take
that to the Russian people. I always said that was
something that he was looking for since he started this invasion.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
So do you think he's in danger of losing the
eastern part of Ukraine or I just don't quite understand
why he'd all of a sudden be willing to give
Ukraine security guarantees, especially because, like I said, up to
this point, they've been acting like they were winning.
Speaker 3 (07:43):
You know, Yeah, that's a great question, Sianna. What I
would say here is that Putin may see the writing
on the wall that look, I'm gonna have to do something.
I'm going to need to, you know, off ramp this uh,
this special military operation because it is where so the
(08:08):
sanctions may not be working, but these tariffs that Trump
could put on him could definitely harm the Russian economy.
That could look bad on him, But it also could
be a tactic of what we've seen before from Putin,
which is saying he's going to agree to something just
to extend these negotiations. Make it look like he's the
(08:30):
guy that wants peace. You can look to Putin as
the one that or you look at he wants you
to look at Zelensky as the one who is continuing
this war and not himself. And so if he says, oh, yeah,
I can you know, I'll allow for those security guarantees,
but then some other red lines pop up, he could
(08:53):
look like he's the one who's negotiating in good faith
and not Zelenski.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
So with this new development, President Trump has said he
wants the two leaders to meet directly. So what is
the status of a potential Putin Zelenski meeting.
Speaker 3 (09:09):
Yeah, I think this is where we see some of
the friction Putin. I'm sorry. President Trump said that a
bilateral meeting between the two leaders is the necessary next
step to all of this, even said he would join
during these meetings if it was needed, But the signals
from both Kiev and Moscow have kind of been mixed.
(09:30):
Zelensky has said that Ukraine is not afraid of meeting
with anyone, but at the same time he has publicly
accused Russia of doing everything it can to actually prevent
this meeting. So this is a very different narrative from
the one that is coming out of Russia.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
Okay, so what is the Russian side of the story.
Speaker 3 (09:53):
Well, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said that President
Putin is ready to meet, but only when the jenda
is ready, and he went on to accuse Ukraine of
saying no to everything. He says, Ukraine is showing no flexibility,
and this suggests that while a meeting might be the goal,
there is still a lot of disagreement on the substance
(10:13):
of what would be discussed during this meeting. The fact
that Russia has continued to launch heavy attacks on Ukraine
throughout this diplomatic push, and Ukraine has struck Russian oil infrastructure.
This just shows how fragile the situation is.
Speaker 2 (10:29):
I think I saw an article this morning that said
that Russia is accusing Ukraine of hitting one of their
nuclear sites.
Speaker 3 (10:38):
Yeah, there's that, I did see that as well. Also
the fact that the US has denied Ukraine, the ability
still denying Ukraine the ability to fire Western provided weapons
deep deeper into Russia. So we've got some back and
forth there, and Ukraine is handcuffed in trying to defend themselves,
(11:04):
and Russia is becoming more and more aggressive to try
to push this war to an end that they can
then come out victorious.
Speaker 2 (11:14):
Well with what Lavrov said about Ukraine saying no to
everything and showing no flexibility, I think you are right
in that they're trying to make it seem like that
it's Ukraine dragging their heels on ending this war.
Speaker 3 (11:29):
Yea.
Speaker 2 (11:30):
So on the topic of security guarantees, we saw President
Zelenski in Washington this past week with a host of
European leaders, his posse or like you called them, the Avengers.
So what was the purpose of the trip.
Speaker 3 (11:45):
Elic It was an extraordinary meeting. I think part of
it was to not have what happened. I believe was
that in February when they had the blow up in
the Oval Office and you know that JD. Vance yelling
at Zelenski and all of that. So these European leaders
(12:06):
and Zelenski himself were actually concerned that a peace deal
broker by Trump and putin might force Ukraine into unacceptable
territorial concessions. So they rushed out to Washington, d C.
And they wanted to do that to present a united
front and to influence President Trump in this decision. A
(12:26):
visit was actually a success from their perspective. President Trump
appeared more open to the idea of the US providing
security those security guarantees for Ukraine.
Speaker 2 (12:37):
So does that mean US troops on the ground.
Speaker 3 (12:41):
No, that is something President Trump has been very clear about.
He said that there will be no US boots on
the ground, but he did indicate a willingness for the
US to provide other forms of support. I said there
could be air support, it could be overall coordination of
a European led security efforts. So no US boots on
(13:01):
the ground, but NATO boots on the ground, And some
European countries like France and Britain have said they are
ready to contribute ground forces to a coalition to back Ukraine.
And that means you did something wrong. If France is
going to put boots on the ground, you know you're
going to make a dig yep.
Speaker 2 (13:21):
So we have the Russians making concessions in the US
appearing to be willing to join security guarantees for Ukraine.
But there are still these two big points of contention,
whether a meeting will happen and whether a ceasefire can
be achieved.
Speaker 3 (13:38):
Yeah, you're exactly right. The diplomacy part has been successful,
successfully set a new framework on how these discussions can
be had. But the hard part here the actual negotiation
for it, either a ceasefire or lasting piece deal that
is still way ahead for US, for the globe, for Ukraine,
(14:01):
for Russia. Now, a number of locations for a summit
have been floated. Budapest is one of them. Switzerland is
another one. Switzerland right as a common one that continues
to be brought up, but historically is a place where
peace deals are signed. But with the ongoing fighting and
(14:21):
the differing public statements from both countries, it is clear
that a deal is still far from certain now. President
Zelensky has said that he feels more optimistic now than
he did a week or even two weeks ago. He
said that he saw unity in Washington, d c. And
that the diplomacy was actually much better than it was
(14:42):
in previous times. So that's a good thing. But as
his European counterparts have said, this is far from over.
Speaker 2 (14:51):
I think this is a good stopping point for discussions
on the path to piece in the Russia Ukraine War.
I mean, it's a complex situation and we will be
watching it very very closely. But for now we need
to shift to the war in Gaza. Over the last
few weeks, we have seen some very complex and very
dangerous dynamics unfold in the Israel Gaza conflict, and I
(15:13):
want to talk about how the conflict on the ground
has evolved, particularly the challenges faced by humanitarian groups, and
the shift and cease fire talks, and the major political
moves we have seen this past week. So let's begin
with what seems to be a new and deeply troubling tactic.
(15:33):
We have now seen several reports over the past few
weeks about militants exploiting humanitarian aid efforts. So what can
you tell us about what is happening on the ground
with organizations like the World's Central Kitchen YELIC.
Speaker 3 (15:47):
It's incredibly challenging for humanitarian aid organizations, for everyone that's there,
for the starving people in Gaza. Now, you may recall
the tragic incident from April of twenty twenty four. That's
when an IDF airstrike or an Israeli Defense Force airstrike
mistakenly targeted a WCK or World Central Kitchen vehicle, leading
(16:12):
to the deaths of seven aid workers. WCK founder Josiandris
was indeed devastated by that event, as anyone would be,
and as we all were. But what we are seeing
now is that Hamas fighters have started to pose as
wckaid workers in a clear pattern of deception. Now, Israeli
(16:36):
forces did eliminate five armed militants who were found in
a vehicle marked with the emblem of the World Central Kitchen.
The militants were reportedly wearing yellow vests to mimic the
Aid workers WCK or World Central Kitchen. Actually confirmed that
these individuals were not affiliated with their organization. They've condemned
(16:56):
the act and they've noted that such deception in dantures
both civilians as well as the aid workers.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
So they stole the truck with the WCK emblemot Yes, Okay,
I think I saw an article this morning, or maybe
it was yesterday about how they declared a famine officially
in Gaza and that five hundred thousand people are in
(17:28):
in danger of dying because of the labs of food,
lack of medical care, all of that.
Speaker 3 (17:34):
Yeah, and this doesn't help that situation, right, No.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
Right, I mean, this is clearly complicating an already dire situation.
We've extensively covered the humanitarian crisis and the severe shortage
of aid reaching Gaza. Now, the confirmation that HAMAS fighters
are deliberately impersonating AID workers introduces a dangerous new variable.
It creates an untenable predicament for them military because you know,
(18:02):
the IDF must operate with heightened vigilance.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
Yet it is also expected to collaborate with the very.
Speaker 2 (18:08):
Same organizations it is now struggling to distinguish from combatants.
And the apparent lack of trust between not a parent,
like very obvious lack of trust between Israel and the
u N seems to have been exploited by HAMAS and
that is gonna further jeopardize both aid efforts and civilian safety.
(18:30):
But I mean.
Speaker 1 (18:32):
It's not I mean, Israel just blows up everybody.
Speaker 3 (18:37):
Yeah, and this is you know we talk about, well,
they're just blowing up everything and they're hitting civilian targets,
and Israel says, well, there were Hamas fighters within those.
These reports now confirming, and the intelligence is quite clear
on this that the Hamas is starting to or has
(18:59):
embedded itself into various civilian locations with aid workers and
taking aid vehicles and then using them to perform attacks.
This is this is trouble. This is just causing even
worse of a situation. And it gives Israel now the
(19:19):
ability to say, hey, look, you know we told you
guys that we weren't just blowing things up out of nowhere.
We said there were Hermas people there. Now look we're
showing you our our reports are now confirming that that
is true. That gives them, now, if they didn't have
it before, carte blanche to do whatever they want. I
(19:40):
don't think which part that that this gives them carte blanche. Yeah,
I think I'm saying in their mind, if they didn't
think so before, they absolutely they thought so.
Speaker 2 (19:55):
Before they.
Speaker 3 (19:57):
What I what I wanted to say was like, so
this tactic that Hamas is using, now that it's public,
now that we know that the reports, the reporting is
true on this one, it fundamentally erodes the security guarantees
and the neutrality of humanitarian organizations which they rely on
to operate. I think this is all a calculated move
(20:22):
designed to exploit the very friction that you mentioned, that
existing tension between military operations and humanitarian imperatives. Now the
deception forces a military to choose between two unacceptable options
from a human perspective, right, risk inadvertently harming genuine aid
workers or failed to neutralize a legitimate threat.
Speaker 2 (20:45):
Can you pause it? Okay? So obviously cease fire negotiations
have never gone well or led to anything.
Speaker 3 (20:55):
That's sobsolutely true.
Speaker 2 (20:58):
But it's something, but it's something we still need to
talk about. So can you tell us what the latest
is on the ceasefire negotiations? I mean from what I
saw yesterday, well not yesterday, earlier this week. You know,
Israel just came out said they they're going to raise
gossip to the ground in order to dismantle Hamas. So
(21:22):
where does that leave these fire negotiations?
Speaker 3 (21:25):
Yeah, well, I mean, so it the fact that we're
still talking about ceasfire negotiations right since that we've been
doing this for over a year now, right, they're not
going well, we see one side say we're going to
agree to something, and then the other side goes, oh, well,
now we're not going to agree because of the trust
(21:48):
issues between the two sides. And just like you said, right,
what was one of Israel's terms for a complete seaspire
or a complete ceasefire deal or to stop the war
all together was the complete dismantling of Hamas. And so
(22:11):
they are saying, now, well, we can't agree to a
ceasefire because we're just gonna go do We're gonna go
dismantle Hamas ourselves, and that's gonna be at the detriment
of the people of Gaza and Gaza City itself. And look,
we have seen a significant shift in Israel's public position. Publicly,
(22:32):
they were saying, hey, if you you know you we
do this phased release of hostages, then we can do
ceasefires for sixty days and maybe ninety days and keep
it going. That's completely off the table now, and an
Israeli official has said that Israel is demanding the release
of all fifty hostages. This is despite a recent proposal
(22:54):
put forward by Cutter and Egypt that Hamas publicly said
that they had accepted this proposal, that that particular proposal
it's almost identical to a previous US plan that Israel
had already accepted. So it's completely convoluted. Now we are
hearing that Israel is not explicitly rejecting this new proposal,
(23:19):
but it's said it's not interested in partial deals and
that its policy is to secure the release of all
the hostages at once.
Speaker 2 (23:28):
Okay, so what about Hamas, what is their stance on this.
Speaker 3 (23:34):
New approach, the new approach, Yeah, the new old approach,
right of agreeing and then disagreeing. Yeah, yeah, Look, they
sent a delegation to Cairo for preliminary talks, but the
core demands from both sides remain unchanged. There are still
those main sticking points. Now Hamas once a full israelly
(23:55):
withdrawal and a complete end to the war. And Israel,
on the other hand, they demand that Hamas surrender control
of Gaza and disarm or else they'll do it for them.
That's that's what you were talking about, right, and just
running rough shot over Gaza city.
Speaker 2 (24:13):
Yeah, and just raising it to the ground.
Speaker 3 (24:15):
Yeah. Now you've just heard what I said right about
the two sides, And these are two fundamentally opposing positions,
and it's why the Egyptian Foreign Minister is still trying
to push for the original phased deal as a more
realistic path forward.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
So on one hand, we have a political push for
a total deal, but the reality on the ground and
the competing demands of the two sides suggest that a
phased approach is likely more pragmatic. Am I understanding that correctly?
Speaker 3 (24:50):
Yeah? I mean that's precisely. That's precisely the tension here. Now.
The political rhetoric is about is about a grand, comprehensive solution,
but the tactical difficulties of achieving that are just enormous.
It's a classic problem for negotiators. They have to analyze
not only the stated goals of the leaders, but also
(25:10):
the underlying capabilities and the non negotiable demands that prevent
a quick resolution.
Speaker 2 (25:17):
Well, speaking of tensions, we've also seen a lot of
protests in Israel this past week. So what's happening there.
I did see a couple news articles and they had
some video attached and they said it was like hundreds
of thousands of people.
Speaker 3 (25:36):
Absolutely, Yeah, the protests are massive. They've been organized by
groups representing the families of the hostages. You said, hundreds
of thousands of people have taken to the streets demanding
a deal to free the remaining captives in any way
that can be achieved. They're trying to pressure the government
to start a one day strike. That strike blocked roads,
(25:59):
it close businesses. Police have used they've had to use
water cannons and dozens of these protesters have been arrested.
Speaker 2 (26:10):
So are they violent protests or they just don't want
protests on the ground, are they?
Speaker 3 (26:14):
It's not violent? No, I mean so they're they're.
Speaker 2 (26:17):
Using water cannons on their own people, right.
Speaker 3 (26:21):
Well, the water cannon blocking roads right, closing off businesses.
The police have to get them out of the way.
Speaker 2 (26:29):
You know, they're strength strengthen numbers, right, it's more people
are out there, you know, the more they can really,
you know, let their government know they're not too happy
with how they're handling this whole situation.
Speaker 3 (26:44):
Absolutely, This is how you get your government leaders to change.
This is why in authoritarian governments, they don't allow protests, right,
They don't want public protests.
Speaker 2 (26:57):
They don't want a bunch of like minded people ling
their resources together and pushing back against them. So it
sounds like frustration is at an all time high. So
what are the competing pressures on Prime Minister Ntan Yahoo?
Speaker 3 (27:12):
Yeah, like it is. Frustration with the Israeli people are
right now at an all time high. And net Yahoo's
trying to balance this situation because he wants to remain
in power, not because he feels for people. This is
my opinion. It's not because he feels for people or
he's like Kim Jong un crying saddened by the soldiers
(27:35):
who have perished in the war in Ukraine. Right, I
just thought i'd bring that one up.
Speaker 2 (27:43):
I still see that. I can still see the picture
of him cradling that soldier, yeah to his bosom.
Speaker 3 (27:49):
I saw the whole video. It was there's a lot
we could talk about in that video. Maybe I should
do a video in video reaction to it. But it's
neither he nor there. This is Prime Minister Nanyaho who
just wants to stay in power, much like any leader. Right,
once you have power, you don't want to give it up,
(28:09):
absolute power.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
I'm just kidding.
Speaker 3 (28:12):
Well, I mean, I'm just saying from YERCA.
Speaker 2 (28:15):
Yeah, all the old white dudes that are trying to
stay in power.
Speaker 3 (28:20):
Yeah, you know, being in being the congressman for eighty
years and being rolled up like the pope, waving at
people when you're obbos is not in your right mind.
Speaker 2 (28:31):
I remember if she was a congresswoman or a senator,
but she was just like missing for months and it
turns out she was in.
Speaker 3 (28:39):
In a ittin no, no, it's a different woman.
Speaker 2 (28:44):
But but she was found in a rehab facility with
full blown Alzheimer's or dementia or something like that. But
she was Nope, surprisingly no no.
Speaker 3 (29:00):
I thought that was yeah, neither here nor there. We
are we are going down that rabbit hole. The tangent.
Speaker 2 (29:06):
We are off track.
Speaker 3 (29:09):
We haven't had a good tangent in quite a few episodes.
Speaker 2 (29:13):
I'm trying to, you know, keep it buttoned up and
try to like focus.
Speaker 3 (29:17):
On people want the tangents.
Speaker 2 (29:19):
M I don't know.
Speaker 3 (29:21):
If I don't know, vote now, smash the light button
if you with tangents. Yes, I get this is supposed
to be a geopolitical news podcast, but it is still
a podcast where we're trying to bring levity to some
terrible situations. So tangents happen, and they always come back
(29:41):
to the topic at hand, which is net and Yahoo.
Speaker 1 (29:48):
It.
Speaker 3 (29:48):
So, like I said, he's trying to balance the situation
to remain in power. On one side, He's got his
far right coalition partners. They do not want a partial deal.
They believe that a partial deal is a sign of defeat.
They want the war to continue until Hamas is completely dismantled.
On the other side, a majority of the Israeli public
(30:09):
and the families of the hostages are urging him to
accept a deal to bring their loved ones home. The
families are accusing him of deliberately setting unworkable conditions to
prevent this agreement. On the philosophical question here is who
does net and Yahoo actually lead? You know, does he
lead the people of Israel or does he lead that
(30:35):
far right leadership? So who does he actually have to account?
Speaker 2 (30:42):
He's already answered this question because he's not listening to
the people of Israel right, He's listening to his far
right leadership coalition, so we know who he answers to.
And amidst all of this, the humanitarian situation on the
ground continues to be dire. Like I said earlier, I
(31:06):
saw an article in which they said five hundred thousand
people are in danger of dying currently and they declared
it a famine. And we saw that there was a
new and deeply troubling report this week about Israeli forces
(31:28):
and aid seekers. Can you tell us about that?
Speaker 3 (31:33):
Yeah, like it's devastating. Just like you said, the UN
has worn that starvation levels in Gaza are at their
highest since the war began, five hundred thousand people are
on the cusp of starving to death, and aid organizations
say the amount of aid getting in is far below
(31:53):
what is needed. It is not getting distributed to the
people that needed either. And this week we saw a
report that Israeli forces killed at least seventeen people who
were seeking aid and included nine waiting for un AID
trucks hospitals and witnesses in Gaza did confirm this is
the Israeli defense force that they're going to look into
(32:15):
the matter and they will have an answer later on
how and why this happened. We won't hold our breath
for that one, but they did say they'll look into it.
It's just look, it's I know, it's a war zone.
Like getting aid into a war zone is very difficult,
(32:36):
but you've got people starving, they need food, they need resources,
they need the aid. They should be they should be
able to safely get all of that aid. And it
just highlights how dangerous the environment is for civilians, the
people in Gaza who are just simply trying to survive.
Speaker 2 (32:58):
So we are seeing a convergence of factors like a
military operation that is intensifying the complexities of negotiations that
are struggling, and a major political move that is being
widely condemned. It seems that these decisions by the Israeli
government have created a serious ripple effect not only in
(33:18):
the region but among its key allies. Next, we are
turning our discussions to the continent of Africa, where the
removal of Western forces has allowed for the return of Isis.
But first we are going to take a break, so
stay with us. We'll be right back. Welcome back, Curven.
We have been talking about a very concerning trend. Over
(33:39):
the past few months. We saw the removal of a
lot of Western influence from the African continent, a movement
that was championed by a new global sealth initiative. But
you know, we assessed that this would create a power
vacuum and that extremist groups would use it to their advantage.
And well now we are seeing the brutal consequences of this.
Speaker 3 (34:01):
Yeah, Like, it's very concerning because it doesn't just affect
the continent of Africa. It's concerning that it does affect
the continent of Africa. But look, this also has a
chance to bleed into Europe. What is currently happening in
Africa actually confirms what we analyzed for some time now.
What we are witnessing is a clear resurgence of ISIS
(34:22):
on the African continent, and it is a move that
is both strategic but also brutal, as ISIS tends to be.
It's not like one off attacks like he would see
with al Qaeda or Boka Haram. It's a concerted campaign
to establish a new base of operations and to carry
out a specific ideological agenda.
Speaker 2 (34:43):
Well where's China and Russia? How come they aren't doing
any They are next to them eventually.
Speaker 3 (34:48):
Too, they are on the continent.
Speaker 2 (34:53):
I know that. That's what I'm saying. Why aren't they
doing anything? Since that was the whole point. They're like,
we'll come in, will take the place of all the
Western countries that were here. We're better, we have more money,
we'll be able to protect you more. Like, why are
they Why aren't they doing anything?
Speaker 3 (35:09):
One of the other things who we predicted, right, is
that Russia and China would do nothing because this affects
the West, right, Europe, the United States. It typically doesn't
affect them. Sometimes it'll affect Russia.
Speaker 2 (35:23):
Right.
Speaker 3 (35:24):
We saw the terrorist attack right. It happened last year,
if I believe around this time last year. I think
it was. But China's kind of closed off to this,
so they don't care. They're going to keep trying to
increase theirs this exactly increase their power in the region,
(35:44):
to strip the resources from the continent exactly.
Speaker 2 (35:48):
Okay, So they aren't exactly hiding their intentions, are they.
I'm not talking about Russia and China right now. I'm
back to talking about ISIS and Boko Haram and everything.
It seems to be an agenda they're broadcasting for the
entire world to see. I mean, we've seen so much
of this come out in the last few weeks, especially
with some of their recent newsletters.
Speaker 1 (36:10):
So what are we to.
Speaker 3 (36:11):
Make of that? Yeah, Like that's absolutely a key piece
of this whole puzzle, Tienna. It shows us exactly what
they want the world to see. You know. I keep
a close eye on all the weekly newsletters from all
the various organizations to kind of piece together the intel
from that that you can gather. This one al Naba
(36:36):
that's basically isis megaphone, and they are using it to
send a very clear message that their leadership is alive
and well.
Speaker 2 (36:46):
And that runs counter to those rumors We heard that
their spokesman had been killed in Syria, doesn't it.
Speaker 3 (36:52):
Yeah, So what you're alluding to there is the after
the US LED raid in Syria, there's a lot of
talk about whether they're spoke person had been eliminated. But
in a recent issue of the newsletter, they featured a
message from him that was very specific and also very recent.
This is an indicator that he is still alive and active.
(37:13):
Doesn't prove it, but it is one of those indicators
that we look for now, whether he is alive or not.
This is still a way for ISIS to show that
they are far from being a leaderless organization and that
their communication channels are still very robust. Now it's a
very deliberate and tactical use of information warfare.
Speaker 2 (37:36):
So they are using this platform to show strength and
to reassure their followers.
Speaker 1 (37:40):
So what else did the newsletter reveal about their strategy?
Speaker 3 (37:45):
Yeah, it was absolutely a window into their strategic focus.
It essentially credited the experience gained by ISIS operatives interact
in Syria for their increasing success in Africa. That suggests
that they are not just local groups groups acting on
their own. There is a transfer of knowledge, tactics and
possibly even foreign fighters. This is a pseudo military taking
(38:09):
lessons learned from other conflicts and using that on another battlefield.
The group is now openly praising what it calls it's
jihad against Christians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
and in Mozambique, and it is using this as a
model for other countries.
Speaker 2 (38:27):
You know, it's one thing to talk about strategic maps
and political vacuums, but then you see the images and
read the first hand accounts, it really brings it all
into a sharp brutal focus. We're seeing these incredibly violent reports,
particularly targeting Christian communities. From a practical boots on the
ground perspective, what is really happening here? Like, what does
(38:50):
all of this information tell you?
Speaker 3 (38:52):
Yeah, go first, the reports are deeply disturbing. ISIS continues
to be much more brutal than the other terrorist organizations
like KAA. They're much more brutal than the Taliban, than
than even Bokaharram. They are more in line with how
the cartels deal with their adversaries. I've seen credible evidence
(39:14):
of ISIS aligned soldiers beheading Christians, burning churches, destroying entire
villages in Mozambique, the Islamic State Mozambique Province, and in
the DRC, the Islamic State Central Africa Province have been
releasing photographs of these attacks, openly boasting about them. And
there's a clear and direct target of religious minorities.
Speaker 2 (39:38):
So this is not just about gaining territory. It's about
an ideological war.
Speaker 3 (39:43):
Yeah, exactly, I'm glad. I'm glad you said that, because
when you when we think of war, right, it's about
territory or it's about protecting someone else's territory from being invaded.
But not for ISIS, right, they this is an ideological war.
The terror comes secondary to that ideological war, and that
(40:04):
is ISIS In a nutshell, ideology is at the core
of their actions. The recent newsletter we talked about laid
out a chilling ultimatum for Christians, said to convert to Islam,
pay a specific tax, or face murder and displacement. This
is their stated goals, their stated goal for everyone, and
it is what we're seeing unfold in real time. This
(40:26):
is a genocidal ideology is a significant part of their campaign.
Speaker 2 (40:32):
And what about the wider world's response. Are we seeing
the international community acknowledge the religious component of these attacks
or is the focus elsewhere?
Speaker 3 (40:43):
Yeah, I guess I believe the focus is not always
where it should be globally so. The United Nations and
other organizations have reported on the mass displacement of people,
with tens of thousands forced to flee their homes, but
they are often hesitant to specifically mention the religiously motivated
nature of the violence of ISIS. The UN continues to
(41:03):
fail in calling out terror organizations like Hamas like ISIS.
It's not a new trend. This is and has been
a very big concern. We've talked about it on this podcast.
You can call both sides out when they're doing something wrong.
What I can say is that the reluctance to call
out this anti Christian animus of ISIS say point of
(41:27):
concern because it can be interpreted as a global peace
institution like the UN, cozying up to multiple terror groups
for reasons that I guess only the UN knows.
Speaker 2 (41:40):
Right now, this takes me back to our previous conversations.
We've talked about how a lot of Western influence has
been either withdrawn or asked to leave the continent. Is
this what it looks like in practice? Is this result
of that power vacuum that we predicted.
Speaker 3 (41:57):
Yeah, it's a great point, and it is a direct
concepts of the power back to vacuum that we discussed.
So with Western influence diminished, these extremist organizations are finding
it easier to operate in ungoverned spaces. We're seeing a
regrouping and an expansion. Look, we saw a defeated ISIS
in the Middle East, but the ideology and the network
(42:19):
that did not disappear instead is found the fertile ground
in Africa, where it is now growing stronger and unfortunately
more violent. This is a direct consequence of this new
global South dynamic on the continent.
Speaker 2 (42:34):
Okay, you said earlier that the threats are not just
contained Africa. This ISIS newsletter also made some very direct
threats towards Europe. Is that correct.
Speaker 3 (42:43):
Well, that's why we really condemned what the Biden administration
allowed to happen on the continent. We fairly accurately predicted
that this is what was going to happen, and then
the target would be Europe, and once these fighters into Europe,
it becomes much easier to get into the rest of
the Western aligned nations. So we are just pulling this
(43:04):
out of context. In a very explicit call to action,
this newsletter encouraged its followers in Africa to carry their
jihad to the shores of Europe. Explicitly prayed for the
success of these attacks and for European cities to become
like the war torn provinces of the Democratic Republic of
Congo and Mozambique. This is not just a subtle warning,
(43:26):
is a clear statement of intent. The threat is global,
and that threat is rooted in the same ideology that
is causing so much suffering in Africa.
Speaker 2 (43:39):
Thank you Kervin for breaking that down for us. We
will continue to monitor this closely. Is there anything else
you want to discuss?
Speaker 3 (43:46):
I think that's it on my side. Do you have
anything you want to discuss.
Speaker 2 (43:52):
You need to tell the listeners. Thank you for putting
up with our inconsistent schedules lately.
Speaker 3 (43:57):
Oh yes, yes, we are apologize for that. I know
we didn't put out an episode last week. It has
been this month as a whole has been very inconsistent.
Speaker 2 (44:10):
Yeah, and it's probably there's gonna be a couple more
times closing out the summer where we might not be
able to churn out an episode, but we are trying
to get back. It's just hard right now.
Speaker 3 (44:24):
Yeah, it's kind of like when we first started, right,
That's what it feels like.
Speaker 2 (44:28):
What do you mean, I don't remember us being inconsistent
with posting episodes. I thought we went full tilt and
just so.
Speaker 3 (44:36):
There was a time there we would like to do
every other week because we just trying to get into
the groove.
Speaker 2 (44:43):
No, I don't think so. I think we well, from
what I remember, we both remember it differently, I guess
because I remember putting out an episode and dreading it
at that point because I hated to sound my own voice.
I was like, h it's Thursday again.
Speaker 3 (44:59):
I have yeah, Cord, remember Thursdays? That was great?
Speaker 2 (45:04):
Yeah, I remember the good old days.
Speaker 3 (45:07):
Yea, good old days.
Speaker 2 (45:09):
So I mean anything.
Speaker 3 (45:11):
Else, well, just to reiterate, reiterate what you said. The
next couple of months, it's going to be there'll be
some inconsistencies. Yeah, because when you get out here, I'm
not recording.
Speaker 2 (45:23):
Sorry, I'm not sorry.
Speaker 3 (45:27):
I know you want that's fine. So yeah, I just
we really want to say thank you for continuing to
listen and sticking to sticking by us and with us. Yeah,
thank you, even though we have it stuck to a
consistent schedule lately. Yeah, we will be more consistent after
(45:48):
the next few months. And you know the world's going
to be consistent in having things to talk about. So
you know you got us for the anything else you
want to talk about. No good.
Speaker 2 (46:01):
Thank you so much for listening to this week explained.
We hope you found it both informative and engaging. If
you have any feedback or suggestions for future episodes, we
would love to hear from you. For more in depth
coverage of these stories and more, be sure to follow
us on social media at this Week explained Tianna.
Speaker 3 (46:17):
Thank you so much, and until hopefully next week, stay
safe out there.
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Tired of feeling overwhelmed by the headlines, want to truly
understand the why behind the global chaos and you are
in the right place. Welcome to this week Explained, your
weekly deep diving in the most complex and impactful stories
shaping our world. I'm Tianna and joining me as always
is Curvin. Before we jump into the crucial developments of
the week. A quick favor. If you want to ensure
(02:37):
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awesome Leon Media Network. This week, we're diving into the
latest from Ukraine in Gaza and the threat of ISIS
on the African continent. We're going to start, as always,
(03:22):
with the latest developments from the war in Ukraine. It
has been an incredibly busy couple of weeks, starting with
President Trump's summit with Vladimir Putin and Alaska and now
culminating in President Zelensky's trip to Washington with a host
of European leaders, you know, his posse, or as you
called them, the Avengers, the avengers. He at least he
(03:43):
had people backing him up this time. Oh for sure. Yeah,
it is the optic of that. Come on, man, He's like, look,
you may not agree with what I want Trump, but
these people all agree.
Speaker 3 (03:56):
With Did you see the leaders, the photo of all
of the leaders surrounding Trump.
Speaker 2 (04:02):
Yeah, that's literally why you called them the avengers, right,
because of that photo. So where do we begin, Like,
what is the main takeaway from all of this frantic activity?
Speaker 3 (04:13):
Look, I think the biggest shift that we've seen is
that a path to a long term peace deal, not
just a temporary ceasefire, is kind of on the table
depending on who you talked to. For a long time,
the focus was just trying to stop the fighting at
least for a little while. Now the conversation has turned
(04:36):
to a permanent solution, and the key to that shift
came from that Trump Putin meeting in Alaska two weeks ago. Accord,
according to the US envoy, the Russians did make some
concessions as soon as they landed there in Alaska, immediately
during that summit.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
And what exactly were those concessions.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
I think the most significant concession appears to be a
willingness to entertain the idea of security guarantees for Ukraine.
I say entertain doesn't mean that they agreed to do that,
but there is this, uh, there's this thought that as
the war rages on and it keeps going, that they
(05:21):
are going to uh, they're going to concede, They're going
to capitulate to those security guarantees for Ukraine. It's a
crucial point because for so long Russia has viewed any
talk of security for Ukraine as a non starter in negotiations.
Now it seems that they are open to an agreement.
It's agreement that would not uh, that would not involve
(05:43):
NATO membership for Ukraine, but it would provide that Article
five like protection that you and I t and I
have been talking about on this podcast for quite a while.
Is one of the things we'd like to see, and
this is a major strategic development. It could allow Ukraine
to get the security it needs to actually agree to
a deal, and they would agree to that deal without
(06:05):
crossing one of Russia's biggest red lines, which is NATO membership.
Speaker 2 (06:10):
What do you think changed for Russia for them to
even entertain this, because up to this point, you know,
they've drawn that hard line and they've stuck to it.
Speaker 3 (06:20):
Yeah, I think it's. Uh, there's a few things here,
One of which I think may surprise people is how
forceful President Trump has been in trying to get this
deal made. So he's made some remarks towards Russia about
some tariffs that may be on the horizon. You know
we don't like, say, well, it's not that we don't
(06:41):
like sanctions. Here, I'm actually working up a post talking
about how the sanctions have not really affected Russia. Russia's
kind of been able to to move past the sanctions
by using the Global South. So I think that's one
part of it. In the the other part of all
(07:01):
of this is that Putin needs a win right now.
If he can get that eastern portion of Ukraine to
be Russian territory, to be seen internationally even as Russian territory,
that's a huge win for him, and he could take
that to the Russian people. I always said that was
something that he was looking for since he started this invasion.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
So do you think he's in danger of losing the
eastern part of Ukraine or I just don't quite understand
why he'd all of a sudden be willing to give
Ukraine security guarantees, especially because, like I said, up to
this point, they've been acting like they were winning.
Speaker 3 (07:43):
You know, Yeah, that's a great question, Sianna. What I
would say here is that Putin may see the writing
on the wall that look, I'm gonna have to do something.
I'm going to need to, you know, off ramp this uh,
this special military operation because it is where so the
(08:08):
sanctions may not be working, but these tariffs that Trump
could put on him could definitely harm the Russian economy.
That could look bad on him, But it also could
be a tactic of what we've seen before from Putin,
which is saying he's going to agree to something just
to extend these negotiations. Make it look like he's the
(08:30):
guy that wants peace. You can look to Putin as
the one that or you look at he wants you
to look at Zelensky as the one who is continuing
this war and not himself. And so if he says, oh, yeah,
I can you know, I'll allow for those security guarantees,
but then some other red lines pop up, he could
(08:53):
look like he's the one who's negotiating in good faith
and not Zelenski.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
So with this new development, President Trump has said he
wants the two leaders to meet directly. So what is
the status of a potential Putin Zelenski meeting.
Speaker 3 (09:09):
Yeah, I think this is where we see some of
the friction Putin. I'm sorry. President Trump said that a
bilateral meeting between the two leaders is the necessary next
step to all of this, even said he would join
during these meetings if it was needed, But the signals
from both Kiev and Moscow have kind of been mixed.
(09:30):
Zelensky has said that Ukraine is not afraid of meeting
with anyone, but at the same time he has publicly
accused Russia of doing everything it can to actually prevent
this meeting. So this is a very different narrative from
the one that is coming out of Russia.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
Okay, so what is the Russian side of the story.
Speaker 3 (09:53):
Well, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said that President
Putin is ready to meet, but only when the jenda
is ready, and he went on to accuse Ukraine of
saying no to everything. He says, Ukraine is showing no flexibility,
and this suggests that while a meeting might be the goal,
there is still a lot of disagreement on the substance
(10:13):
of what would be discussed during this meeting. The fact
that Russia has continued to launch heavy attacks on Ukraine
throughout this diplomatic push, and Ukraine has struck Russian oil infrastructure.
This just shows how fragile the situation is.
Speaker 2 (10:29):
I think I saw an article this morning that said
that Russia is accusing Ukraine of hitting one of their
nuclear sites.
Speaker 3 (10:38):
Yeah, there's that, I did see that as well. Also
the fact that the US has denied Ukraine, the ability
still denying Ukraine the ability to fire Western provided weapons
deep deeper into Russia. So we've got some back and
forth there, and Ukraine is handcuffed in trying to defend themselves,
(11:04):
and Russia is becoming more and more aggressive to try
to push this war to an end that they can
then come out victorious.
Speaker 2 (11:14):
Well with what Lavrov said about Ukraine saying no to
everything and showing no flexibility, I think you are right
in that they're trying to make it seem like that
it's Ukraine dragging their heels on ending this war.
Speaker 3 (11:29):
Yea.
Speaker 2 (11:30):
So on the topic of security guarantees, we saw President
Zelenski in Washington this past week with a host of
European leaders, his posse or like you called them, the Avengers.
So what was the purpose of the trip.
Speaker 3 (11:45):
Elic It was an extraordinary meeting. I think part of
it was to not have what happened. I believe was
that in February when they had the blow up in
the Oval Office and you know that JD. Vance yelling
at Zelenski and all of that. So these European leaders
(12:06):
and Zelenski himself were actually concerned that a peace deal
broker by Trump and putin might force Ukraine into unacceptable
territorial concessions. So they rushed out to Washington, d C.
And they wanted to do that to present a united
front and to influence President Trump in this decision. A
(12:26):
visit was actually a success from their perspective. President Trump
appeared more open to the idea of the US providing
security those security guarantees for Ukraine.
Speaker 2 (12:37):
So does that mean US troops on the ground.
Speaker 3 (12:41):
No, that is something President Trump has been very clear about.
He said that there will be no US boots on
the ground, but he did indicate a willingness for the
US to provide other forms of support. I said there
could be air support, it could be overall coordination of
a European led security efforts. So no US boots on
(13:01):
the ground, but NATO boots on the ground, And some
European countries like France and Britain have said they are
ready to contribute ground forces to a coalition to back Ukraine.
And that means you did something wrong. If France is
going to put boots on the ground, you know you're
going to make a dig yep.
Speaker 2 (13:21):
So we have the Russians making concessions in the US
appearing to be willing to join security guarantees for Ukraine.
But there are still these two big points of contention,
whether a meeting will happen and whether a ceasefire can
be achieved.
Speaker 3 (13:38):
Yeah, you're exactly right. The diplomacy part has been successful,
successfully set a new framework on how these discussions can
be had. But the hard part here the actual negotiation
for it, either a ceasefire or lasting piece deal that
is still way ahead for US, for the globe, for Ukraine,
(14:01):
for Russia. Now, a number of locations for a summit
have been floated. Budapest is one of them. Switzerland is
another one. Switzerland right as a common one that continues
to be brought up, but historically is a place where
peace deals are signed. But with the ongoing fighting and
(14:21):
the differing public statements from both countries, it is clear
that a deal is still far from certain now. President
Zelensky has said that he feels more optimistic now than
he did a week or even two weeks ago. He
said that he saw unity in Washington, d c. And
that the diplomacy was actually much better than it was
(14:42):
in previous times. So that's a good thing. But as
his European counterparts have said, this is far from over.
Speaker 2 (14:51):
I think this is a good stopping point for discussions
on the path to piece in the Russia Ukraine War.
I mean, it's a complex situation and we will be
watching it very very closely. But for now we need
to shift to the war in Gaza. Over the last
few weeks, we have seen some very complex and very
dangerous dynamics unfold in the Israel Gaza conflict, and I
(15:13):
want to talk about how the conflict on the ground
has evolved, particularly the challenges faced by humanitarian groups, and
the shift and cease fire talks, and the major political
moves we have seen this past week. So let's begin
with what seems to be a new and deeply troubling tactic.
(15:33):
We have now seen several reports over the past few
weeks about militants exploiting humanitarian aid efforts. So what can
you tell us about what is happening on the ground
with organizations like the World's Central Kitchen YELIC.
Speaker 3 (15:47):
It's incredibly challenging for humanitarian aid organizations, for everyone that's there,
for the starving people in Gaza. Now, you may recall
the tragic incident from April of twenty twenty four. That's
when an IDF airstrike or an Israeli Defense Force airstrike
mistakenly targeted a WCK or World Central Kitchen vehicle, leading
(16:12):
to the deaths of seven aid workers. WCK founder Josiandris
was indeed devastated by that event, as anyone would be,
and as we all were. But what we are seeing
now is that Hamas fighters have started to pose as
wckaid workers in a clear pattern of deception. Now, Israeli
(16:36):
forces did eliminate five armed militants who were found in
a vehicle marked with the emblem of the World Central Kitchen.
The militants were reportedly wearing yellow vests to mimic the
Aid workers WCK or World Central Kitchen. Actually confirmed that
these individuals were not affiliated with their organization. They've condemned
(16:56):
the act and they've noted that such deception in dantures
both civilians as well as the aid workers.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
So they stole the truck with the WCK emblemot Yes, Okay,
I think I saw an article this morning, or maybe
it was yesterday about how they declared a famine officially
in Gaza and that five hundred thousand people are in
(17:28):
in danger of dying because of the labs of food,
lack of medical care, all of that.
Speaker 3 (17:34):
Yeah, and this doesn't help that situation, right, No.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
Right, I mean, this is clearly complicating an already dire situation.
We've extensively covered the humanitarian crisis and the severe shortage
of aid reaching Gaza. Now, the confirmation that HAMAS fighters
are deliberately impersonating AID workers introduces a dangerous new variable.
It creates an untenable predicament for them military because you know,
(18:02):
the IDF must operate with heightened vigilance.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
Yet it is also expected to collaborate with the very.
Speaker 2 (18:08):
Same organizations it is now struggling to distinguish from combatants.
And the apparent lack of trust between not a parent,
like very obvious lack of trust between Israel and the
u N seems to have been exploited by HAMAS and
that is gonna further jeopardize both aid efforts and civilian safety.
(18:30):
But I mean.
Speaker 1 (18:32):
It's not I mean, Israel just blows up everybody.
Speaker 3 (18:37):
Yeah, and this is you know we talk about, well,
they're just blowing up everything and they're hitting civilian targets,
and Israel says, well, there were Hamas fighters within those.
These reports now confirming, and the intelligence is quite clear
on this that the Hamas is starting to or has
(18:59):
embedded itself into various civilian locations with aid workers and
taking aid vehicles and then using them to perform attacks.
This is this is trouble. This is just causing even
worse of a situation. And it gives Israel now the
(19:19):
ability to say, hey, look, you know we told you
guys that we weren't just blowing things up out of nowhere.
We said there were Hermas people there. Now look we're
showing you our our reports are now confirming that that
is true. That gives them, now, if they didn't have
it before, carte blanche to do whatever they want. I
(19:40):
don't think which part that that this gives them carte blanche. Yeah,
I think I'm saying in their mind, if they didn't
think so before, they absolutely they thought so.
Speaker 2 (19:55):
Before they.
Speaker 3 (19:57):
What I what I wanted to say was like, so
this tactic that Hamas is using, now that it's public,
now that we know that the reports, the reporting is
true on this one, it fundamentally erodes the security guarantees
and the neutrality of humanitarian organizations which they rely on
to operate. I think this is all a calculated move
(20:22):
designed to exploit the very friction that you mentioned, that
existing tension between military operations and humanitarian imperatives. Now the
deception forces a military to choose between two unacceptable options
from a human perspective, right, risk inadvertently harming genuine aid
workers or failed to neutralize a legitimate threat.
Speaker 2 (20:45):
Can you pause it? Okay? So obviously cease fire negotiations
have never gone well or led to anything.
Speaker 3 (20:55):
That's sobsolutely true.
Speaker 2 (20:58):
But it's something, but it's something we still need to
talk about. So can you tell us what the latest
is on the ceasefire negotiations? I mean from what I
saw yesterday, well not yesterday, earlier this week. You know,
Israel just came out said they they're going to raise
gossip to the ground in order to dismantle Hamas. So
(21:22):
where does that leave these fire negotiations?
Speaker 3 (21:25):
Yeah, well, I mean, so it the fact that we're
still talking about ceasfire negotiations right since that we've been
doing this for over a year now, right, they're not
going well, we see one side say we're going to
agree to something, and then the other side goes, oh, well,
now we're not going to agree because of the trust
(21:48):
issues between the two sides. And just like you said, right,
what was one of Israel's terms for a complete seaspire
or a complete ceasefire deal or to stop the war
all together was the complete dismantling of Hamas. And so
(22:11):
they are saying, now, well, we can't agree to a
ceasefire because we're just gonna go do We're gonna go
dismantle Hamas ourselves, and that's gonna be at the detriment
of the people of Gaza and Gaza City itself. And look,
we have seen a significant shift in Israel's public position. Publicly,
(22:32):
they were saying, hey, if you you know you we
do this phased release of hostages, then we can do
ceasefires for sixty days and maybe ninety days and keep
it going. That's completely off the table now, and an
Israeli official has said that Israel is demanding the release
of all fifty hostages. This is despite a recent proposal
(22:54):
put forward by Cutter and Egypt that Hamas publicly said
that they had accepted this proposal, that that particular proposal
it's almost identical to a previous US plan that Israel
had already accepted. So it's completely convoluted. Now we are
hearing that Israel is not explicitly rejecting this new proposal,
(23:19):
but it's said it's not interested in partial deals and
that its policy is to secure the release of all
the hostages at once.
Speaker 2 (23:28):
Okay, so what about Hamas, what is their stance on this.
Speaker 3 (23:34):
New approach, the new approach, Yeah, the new old approach,
right of agreeing and then disagreeing. Yeah, yeah, Look, they
sent a delegation to Cairo for preliminary talks, but the
core demands from both sides remain unchanged. There are still
those main sticking points. Now Hamas once a full israelly
(23:55):
withdrawal and a complete end to the war. And Israel,
on the other hand, they demand that Hamas surrender control
of Gaza and disarm or else they'll do it for them.
That's that's what you were talking about, right, and just
running rough shot over Gaza city.
Speaker 2 (24:13):
Yeah, and just raising it to the ground.
Speaker 3 (24:15):
Yeah. Now you've just heard what I said right about
the two sides, And these are two fundamentally opposing positions,
and it's why the Egyptian Foreign Minister is still trying
to push for the original phased deal as a more
realistic path forward.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
So on one hand, we have a political push for
a total deal, but the reality on the ground and
the competing demands of the two sides suggest that a
phased approach is likely more pragmatic. Am I understanding that correctly?
Speaker 3 (24:50):
Yeah? I mean that's precisely. That's precisely the tension here. Now.
The political rhetoric is about is about a grand, comprehensive solution,
but the tactical difficulties of achieving that are just enormous.
It's a classic problem for negotiators. They have to analyze
not only the stated goals of the leaders, but also
(25:10):
the underlying capabilities and the non negotiable demands that prevent
a quick resolution.
Speaker 2 (25:17):
Well, speaking of tensions, we've also seen a lot of
protests in Israel this past week. So what's happening there.
I did see a couple news articles and they had
some video attached and they said it was like hundreds
of thousands of people.
Speaker 3 (25:36):
Absolutely, Yeah, the protests are massive. They've been organized by
groups representing the families of the hostages. You said, hundreds
of thousands of people have taken to the streets demanding
a deal to free the remaining captives in any way
that can be achieved. They're trying to pressure the government
to start a one day strike. That strike blocked roads,
(25:59):
it close businesses. Police have used they've had to use
water cannons and dozens of these protesters have been arrested.
Speaker 2 (26:10):
So are they violent protests or they just don't want
protests on the ground, are they?
Speaker 3 (26:14):
It's not violent? No, I mean so they're they're.
Speaker 2 (26:17):
Using water cannons on their own people, right.
Speaker 3 (26:21):
Well, the water cannon blocking roads right, closing off businesses.
The police have to get them out of the way.
Speaker 2 (26:29):
You know, they're strength strengthen numbers, right, it's more people
are out there, you know, the more they can really,
you know, let their government know they're not too happy
with how they're handling this whole situation.
Speaker 3 (26:44):
Absolutely, This is how you get your government leaders to change.
This is why in authoritarian governments, they don't allow protests, right,
They don't want public protests.
Speaker 2 (26:57):
They don't want a bunch of like minded people ling
their resources together and pushing back against them. So it
sounds like frustration is at an all time high. So
what are the competing pressures on Prime Minister Ntan Yahoo?
Speaker 3 (27:12):
Yeah, like it is. Frustration with the Israeli people are
right now at an all time high. And net Yahoo's
trying to balance this situation because he wants to remain
in power, not because he feels for people. This is
my opinion. It's not because he feels for people or
he's like Kim Jong un crying saddened by the soldiers
(27:35):
who have perished in the war in Ukraine. Right, I
just thought i'd bring that one up.
Speaker 2 (27:43):
I still see that. I can still see the picture
of him cradling that soldier, yeah to his bosom.
Speaker 3 (27:49):
I saw the whole video. It was there's a lot
we could talk about in that video. Maybe I should
do a video in video reaction to it. But it's
neither he nor there. This is Prime Minister Nanyaho who
just wants to stay in power, much like any leader. Right,
once you have power, you don't want to give it up,
(28:09):
absolute power.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
I'm just kidding.
Speaker 3 (28:12):
Well, I mean, I'm just saying from YERCA.
Speaker 2 (28:15):
Yeah, all the old white dudes that are trying to
stay in power.
Speaker 3 (28:20):
Yeah, you know, being in being the congressman for eighty
years and being rolled up like the pope, waving at
people when you're obbos is not in your right mind.
Speaker 2 (28:31):
I remember if she was a congresswoman or a senator,
but she was just like missing for months and it
turns out she was in.
Speaker 3 (28:39):
In a ittin no, no, it's a different woman.
Speaker 2 (28:44):
But but she was found in a rehab facility with
full blown Alzheimer's or dementia or something like that. But
she was Nope, surprisingly no no.
Speaker 3 (29:00):
I thought that was yeah, neither here nor there. We
are we are going down that rabbit hole. The tangent.
Speaker 2 (29:06):
We are off track.
Speaker 3 (29:09):
We haven't had a good tangent in quite a few episodes.
Speaker 2 (29:13):
I'm trying to, you know, keep it buttoned up and
try to like focus.
Speaker 3 (29:17):
On people want the tangents.
Speaker 2 (29:19):
M I don't know.
Speaker 3 (29:21):
If I don't know, vote now, smash the light button
if you with tangents. Yes, I get this is supposed
to be a geopolitical news podcast, but it is still
a podcast where we're trying to bring levity to some
terrible situations. So tangents happen, and they always come back
(29:41):
to the topic at hand, which is net and Yahoo.
Speaker 1 (29:48):
It.
Speaker 3 (29:48):
So, like I said, he's trying to balance the situation
to remain in power. On one side, He's got his
far right coalition partners. They do not want a partial deal.
They believe that a partial deal is a sign of defeat.
They want the war to continue until Hamas is completely dismantled.
On the other side, a majority of the Israeli public
(30:09):
and the families of the hostages are urging him to
accept a deal to bring their loved ones home. The
families are accusing him of deliberately setting unworkable conditions to
prevent this agreement. On the philosophical question here is who
does net and Yahoo actually lead? You know, does he
lead the people of Israel or does he lead that
(30:35):
far right leadership? So who does he actually have to account?
Speaker 2 (30:42):
He's already answered this question because he's not listening to
the people of Israel right, He's listening to his far
right leadership coalition, so we know who he answers to.
And amidst all of this, the humanitarian situation on the
ground continues to be dire. Like I said earlier, I
(31:06):
saw an article in which they said five hundred thousand
people are in danger of dying currently and they declared
it a famine. And we saw that there was a
new and deeply troubling report this week about Israeli forces
(31:28):
and aid seekers. Can you tell us about that?
Speaker 3 (31:33):
Yeah, like it's devastating. Just like you said, the UN
has worn that starvation levels in Gaza are at their
highest since the war began, five hundred thousand people are
on the cusp of starving to death, and aid organizations
say the amount of aid getting in is far below
(31:53):
what is needed. It is not getting distributed to the
people that needed either. And this week we saw a
report that Israeli forces killed at least seventeen people who
were seeking aid and included nine waiting for un AID
trucks hospitals and witnesses in Gaza did confirm this is
the Israeli defense force that they're going to look into
(32:15):
the matter and they will have an answer later on
how and why this happened. We won't hold our breath
for that one, but they did say they'll look into it.
It's just look, it's I know, it's a war zone.
Like getting aid into a war zone is very difficult,
(32:36):
but you've got people starving, they need food, they need resources,
they need the aid. They should be they should be
able to safely get all of that aid. And it
just highlights how dangerous the environment is for civilians, the
people in Gaza who are just simply trying to survive.
Speaker 2 (32:58):
So we are seeing a convergence of factors like a
military operation that is intensifying the complexities of negotiations that
are struggling, and a major political move that is being
widely condemned. It seems that these decisions by the Israeli
government have created a serious ripple effect not only in
(33:18):
the region but among its key allies. Next, we are
turning our discussions to the continent of Africa, where the
removal of Western forces has allowed for the return of Isis.
But first we are going to take a break, so
stay with us. We'll be right back. Welcome back, Curven.
We have been talking about a very concerning trend. Over
(33:39):
the past few months. We saw the removal of a
lot of Western influence from the African continent, a movement
that was championed by a new global sealth initiative. But
you know, we assessed that this would create a power
vacuum and that extremist groups would use it to their advantage.
And well now we are seeing the brutal consequences of this.
Speaker 3 (34:01):
Yeah, Like, it's very concerning because it doesn't just affect
the continent of Africa. It's concerning that it does affect
the continent of Africa. But look, this also has a
chance to bleed into Europe. What is currently happening in
Africa actually confirms what we analyzed for some time now.
What we are witnessing is a clear resurgence of ISIS
(34:22):
on the African continent, and it is a move that
is both strategic but also brutal, as ISIS tends to be.
It's not like one off attacks like he would see
with al Qaeda or Boka Haram. It's a concerted campaign
to establish a new base of operations and to carry
out a specific ideological agenda.
Speaker 2 (34:43):
Well where's China and Russia? How come they aren't doing
any They are next to them eventually.
Speaker 3 (34:48):
Too, they are on the continent.
Speaker 2 (34:53):
I know that. That's what I'm saying. Why aren't they
doing anything? Since that was the whole point. They're like,
we'll come in, will take the place of all the
Western countries that were here. We're better, we have more money,
we'll be able to protect you more. Like, why are
they Why aren't they doing anything?
Speaker 3 (35:09):
One of the other things who we predicted, right, is
that Russia and China would do nothing because this affects
the West, right, Europe, the United States. It typically doesn't
affect them. Sometimes it'll affect Russia.
Speaker 2 (35:23):
Right.
Speaker 3 (35:24):
We saw the terrorist attack right. It happened last year,
if I believe around this time last year. I think
it was. But China's kind of closed off to this,
so they don't care. They're going to keep trying to
increase theirs this exactly increase their power in the region,
(35:44):
to strip the resources from the continent exactly.
Speaker 2 (35:48):
Okay, So they aren't exactly hiding their intentions, are they.
I'm not talking about Russia and China right now. I'm
back to talking about ISIS and Boko Haram and everything.
It seems to be an agenda they're broadcasting for the
entire world to see. I mean, we've seen so much
of this come out in the last few weeks, especially
with some of their recent newsletters.
Speaker 1 (36:10):
So what are we to.
Speaker 3 (36:11):
Make of that? Yeah, Like that's absolutely a key piece
of this whole puzzle, Tienna. It shows us exactly what
they want the world to see. You know. I keep
a close eye on all the weekly newsletters from all
the various organizations to kind of piece together the intel
from that that you can gather. This one al Naba
(36:36):
that's basically isis megaphone, and they are using it to
send a very clear message that their leadership is alive
and well.
Speaker 2 (36:46):
And that runs counter to those rumors We heard that
their spokesman had been killed in Syria, doesn't it.
Speaker 3 (36:52):
Yeah, So what you're alluding to there is the after
the US LED raid in Syria, there's a lot of
talk about whether they're spoke person had been eliminated. But
in a recent issue of the newsletter, they featured a
message from him that was very specific and also very recent.
This is an indicator that he is still alive and active.
(37:13):
Doesn't prove it, but it is one of those indicators
that we look for now, whether he is alive or not.
This is still a way for ISIS to show that
they are far from being a leaderless organization and that
their communication channels are still very robust. Now it's a
very deliberate and tactical use of information warfare.
Speaker 2 (37:36):
So they are using this platform to show strength and
to reassure their followers.
Speaker 1 (37:40):
So what else did the newsletter reveal about their strategy?
Speaker 3 (37:45):
Yeah, it was absolutely a window into their strategic focus.
It essentially credited the experience gained by ISIS operatives interact
in Syria for their increasing success in Africa. That suggests
that they are not just local groups groups acting on
their own. There is a transfer of knowledge, tactics and
possibly even foreign fighters. This is a pseudo military taking
(38:09):
lessons learned from other conflicts and using that on another battlefield.
The group is now openly praising what it calls it's
jihad against Christians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
and in Mozambique, and it is using this as a
model for other countries.
Speaker 2 (38:27):
You know, it's one thing to talk about strategic maps
and political vacuums, but then you see the images and
read the first hand accounts, it really brings it all
into a sharp brutal focus. We're seeing these incredibly violent reports,
particularly targeting Christian communities. From a practical boots on the
ground perspective, what is really happening here? Like, what does
(38:50):
all of this information tell you?
Speaker 3 (38:52):
Yeah, go first, the reports are deeply disturbing. ISIS continues
to be much more brutal than the other terrorist organizations
like KAA. They're much more brutal than the Taliban, than
than even Bokaharram. They are more in line with how
the cartels deal with their adversaries. I've seen credible evidence
(39:14):
of ISIS aligned soldiers beheading Christians, burning churches, destroying entire
villages in Mozambique, the Islamic State Mozambique Province, and in
the DRC, the Islamic State Central Africa Province have been
releasing photographs of these attacks, openly boasting about them. And
there's a clear and direct target of religious minorities.
Speaker 2 (39:38):
So this is not just about gaining territory. It's about
an ideological war.
Speaker 3 (39:43):
Yeah, exactly, I'm glad. I'm glad you said that, because
when you when we think of war, right, it's about
territory or it's about protecting someone else's territory from being invaded.
But not for ISIS, right, they this is an ideological war.
The terror comes secondary to that ideological war, and that
(40:04):
is ISIS In a nutshell, ideology is at the core
of their actions. The recent newsletter we talked about laid
out a chilling ultimatum for Christians, said to convert to Islam,
pay a specific tax, or face murder and displacement. This
is their stated goals, their stated goal for everyone, and
it is what we're seeing unfold in real time. This
(40:26):
is a genocidal ideology is a significant part of their campaign.
Speaker 2 (40:32):
And what about the wider world's response. Are we seeing
the international community acknowledge the religious component of these attacks
or is the focus elsewhere?
Speaker 3 (40:43):
Yeah, I guess I believe the focus is not always
where it should be globally so. The United Nations and
other organizations have reported on the mass displacement of people,
with tens of thousands forced to flee their homes, but
they are often hesitant to specifically mention the religiously motivated
nature of the violence of ISIS. The UN continues to
(41:03):
fail in calling out terror organizations like Hamas like ISIS.
It's not a new trend. This is and has been
a very big concern. We've talked about it on this podcast.
You can call both sides out when they're doing something wrong.
What I can say is that the reluctance to call
out this anti Christian animus of ISIS say point of
(41:27):
concern because it can be interpreted as a global peace
institution like the UN, cozying up to multiple terror groups
for reasons that I guess only the UN knows.
Speaker 2 (41:40):
Right now, this takes me back to our previous conversations.
We've talked about how a lot of Western influence has
been either withdrawn or asked to leave the continent. Is
this what it looks like in practice? Is this result
of that power vacuum that we predicted.
Speaker 3 (41:57):
Yeah, it's a great point, and it is a direct
concepts of the power back to vacuum that we discussed.
So with Western influence diminished, these extremist organizations are finding
it easier to operate in ungoverned spaces. We're seeing a
regrouping and an expansion. Look, we saw a defeated ISIS
in the Middle East, but the ideology and the network
(42:19):
that did not disappear instead is found the fertile ground
in Africa, where it is now growing stronger and unfortunately
more violent. This is a direct consequence of this new
global South dynamic on the continent.
Speaker 2 (42:34):
Okay, you said earlier that the threats are not just
contained Africa. This ISIS newsletter also made some very direct
threats towards Europe. Is that correct.
Speaker 3 (42:43):
Well, that's why we really condemned what the Biden administration
allowed to happen on the continent. We fairly accurately predicted
that this is what was going to happen, and then
the target would be Europe, and once these fighters into Europe,
it becomes much easier to get into the rest of
the Western aligned nations. So we are just pulling this
(43:04):
out of context. In a very explicit call to action,
this newsletter encouraged its followers in Africa to carry their
jihad to the shores of Europe. Explicitly prayed for the
success of these attacks and for European cities to become
like the war torn provinces of the Democratic Republic of
Congo and Mozambique. This is not just a subtle warning,
(43:26):
is a clear statement of intent. The threat is global,
and that threat is rooted in the same ideology that
is causing so much suffering in Africa.
Speaker 2 (43:39):
Thank you Kervin for breaking that down for us. We
will continue to monitor this closely. Is there anything else
you want to discuss?
Speaker 3 (43:46):
I think that's it on my side. Do you have
anything you want to discuss.
Speaker 2 (43:52):
You need to tell the listeners. Thank you for putting
up with our inconsistent schedules lately.
Speaker 3 (43:57):
Oh yes, yes, we are apologize for that. I know
we didn't put out an episode last week. It has
been this month as a whole has been very inconsistent.
Speaker 2 (44:10):
Yeah, and it's probably there's gonna be a couple more
times closing out the summer where we might not be
able to churn out an episode, but we are trying
to get back. It's just hard right now.
Speaker 3 (44:24):
Yeah, it's kind of like when we first started, right,
That's what it feels like.
Speaker 2 (44:28):
What do you mean, I don't remember us being inconsistent
with posting episodes. I thought we went full tilt and
just so.
Speaker 3 (44:36):
There was a time there we would like to do
every other week because we just trying to get into
the groove.
Speaker 2 (44:43):
No, I don't think so. I think we well, from
what I remember, we both remember it differently, I guess
because I remember putting out an episode and dreading it
at that point because I hated to sound my own voice.
I was like, h it's Thursday again.
Speaker 3 (44:59):
I have yeah, Cord, remember Thursdays? That was great?
Speaker 2 (45:04):
Yeah, I remember the good old days.
Speaker 3 (45:07):
Yea, good old days.
Speaker 2 (45:09):
So I mean anything.
Speaker 3 (45:11):
Else, well, just to reiterate, reiterate what you said. The
next couple of months, it's going to be there'll be
some inconsistencies. Yeah, because when you get out here, I'm
not recording.
Speaker 2 (45:23):
Sorry, I'm not sorry.
Speaker 3 (45:27):
I know you want that's fine. So yeah, I just
we really want to say thank you for continuing to
listen and sticking to sticking by us and with us. Yeah,
thank you, even though we have it stuck to a
consistent schedule lately. Yeah, we will be more consistent after
(45:48):
the next few months. And you know the world's going
to be consistent in having things to talk about. So
you know you got us for the anything else you
want to talk about. No good.
Speaker 2 (46:01):
Thank you so much for listening to this week explained.
We hope you found it both informative and engaging. If
you have any feedback or suggestions for future episodes, we
would love to hear from you. For more in depth
coverage of these stories and more, be sure to follow
us on social media at this Week explained Tianna.
Speaker 3 (46:17):
Thank you so much, and until hopefully next week, stay
safe out there.
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