October 13, 2025 • 55 mins
This week, a fragile ceasefire in Gaza offers a glimmer of hope after two years of devastating conflict. But as President Trump brokers peace in the Middle East, a new and powerful 'axis of power' between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea is changing the face of global conflict forever.
Episode Highlights
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Episode Highlights
- The Gaza Ceasefire: We break down the secret diplomacy and high-stakes pressure from the Trump administration that led to the Israel-Hamas deal. We also look at the fragile reality on the ground, where a multinational force is overseeing a complex hostage exchange under incredibly tense conditions.
- Escalation in Ukraine: The Trump administration is considering a dramatic policy shift by supplying Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles, a move that could allow Kyiv to strike deep into Russian territory. Meanwhile, Ukraine's own drone campaign is successfully crippling up to 38% of Russia's oil refining capacity, impacting its economy and war effort.
- The New Axis: We explore the deepening military and economic alignment between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. Learn how China is supplying 80% of the critical electronics for Russia's drones , North Korea is providing 40% of its artillery shells , and Iran is exporting its drone technology across the globe.
- Venezuela's Failed Offer: Discover the details of a secret, months-long negotiation where Venezuela's President Maduro offered the Trump administration a dominant stake in the country's oil and mineral wealth in a desperate bid for legitimacy.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
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Leon Media Network. This week, we're diving into the latest
from Ukraine and Gaza a burgeoning access rising from the
conflict in Ukraine and what the heck is happening in Venezuela.
(03:24):
So let's start, as always with the war in Ukraine.
This week, it seems like the political landscape around the
conflict is shifting quite dramatically, So let us start with
what appears to be a major policy reconsideration from the
Trump administration. We've heard reports about the US President considering
supplying Tomhawk missiles to Ukraine. This feels like a rather
(03:47):
stark change in approach. So what do we know about
this potential move?
Speaker 3 (03:52):
Yeah, you're right, Cianna, it is a very significant shift.
It's also one that's caused a bit of garbled messaging,
as we've seen. So Vice President Vance he's confirmed that
these conversations are ongoing and President Trump is going to
make a final determination.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
Now.
Speaker 3 (04:09):
The Tomahawk, by its very nature, is a long range
strike weapon that if supplied, it would drastically improve Ukraine's
capability to hit targets deep within Russian territory. This includes
potential government buildings in Moscow.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Well, that would certainly elevate the stakes, but it not.
I mean, we have also seen conflicting signals about whether
Ukraine would be authorized to use such weapons for deep strikes.
Speaker 3 (04:36):
Yeah, and that's where the garbled messaging comes in. So
Trump's envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, he initially suggested that
Ukraine would have authorization for deep strikes. Then he clarified
his remarks as I said, the very purpose of these
missiles is for long range strikes. So this unclear messaging
(04:58):
seems a bit off to me. What is clear, though,
is that the discussion itself, whether it leads to a
supply of these missiles or not, sends a strong message
to Russia.
Speaker 2 (05:11):
It is interesting that this comes after President Trump's recent
success in brokering a peace deal between Israel and Hamas,
which we will obviously discuss later. Yet he has described
the Ukraine war as even harder to solve. He even
met with President Putin in Alaska, which didn't result in
a breakthrough.
Speaker 3 (05:31):
Again, you make a crucial point there, Sanna. The Alaska
meeting did not yield the desired results. If you listen
to this podcast, you knew that's what was going to happen.
But since then, Russian attacks have escalated. Moscow itself has
stated that the prospects for peace steel have largely vanished,
and the Finish president expressed confidence in Trump's ability to
(05:52):
push through a deal, even though Russia is saying that
there will be no peace deal now. The Finish President
is probably viewing the Gaza agreement as the precedent here,
something that Trump could likely use in a Ukraine Russia
piece deal in the future. But the dynamics in Ukraine,
(06:13):
I would say, are profoundly different than that conflict.
Speaker 2 (06:18):
Speaking of escalation, we have seen an uptick in Ukrainian
attacks on Russian territory, particularly in the Belgarod region. So
what is the scope of these strikes.
Speaker 3 (06:28):
We certainly are seeing a consistent pattern of Ukrainian strikes,
especially as you mentioned on Belgarode. This has led to
casualties and significant power outages in Russia. This is part
of Ukraine's broader aerial campaign which has intensified dramatically in
recent months. They have been targeting Russian oil refineries and
they've been considerably successful in this successful In what way
(06:54):
are these attacks actually having a tangible effect? I think
they are in reading reports, those reports are indicating that
at certain points, up to thirty eight percent of Russia's
refining capacity has been disabled. This has led to fuel shortages,
also price increases within Russia. This is forcing them to
increase expensive imports. They're even buying gasoline back from China
(07:18):
at a markup after selling that crude oil at a discount.
The Ukraine is demonstrating that ingenuity can sometimes offset Russia's
sheer mte in certain situations. They're using low cost drones
to hit distant target distant targets. Some of those targets
are over two thousand kilometers away.
Speaker 2 (07:37):
So a clear strategy to impact Russia's military and economy
through fuel supply. Meanwhile, what is the current situation on
the frontlines. Russian forces claim to be making advances.
Speaker 3 (07:50):
Yeah, that is what is being reported from pro Russian sources.
Russia claims to have seized several villages. They also maintain
the strategic initiative in this conflict.
Speaker 2 (08:01):
Now.
Speaker 3 (08:01):
President Putin stated nearly five thousand square kilometers of Ukrainian
territory have been captured this year alone, though independent assessments
placed that figure a bit lower than the five thousand
square kilometers. But these gains have come at a very
high cost in terms of personnel for Russia. Estimates based
on recently leaked documents suggest that well over a quarter
(08:24):
of a million Russian casualties have occurred in the first
eight months of this year.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
Well, those are truly staggering numbers if they are accurate.
And what about the air war over Ukraine. We've heard
about continued Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure as winter approaches,
which seems to be par for the course for them
whenever get closer to winter, they started attacking energy infrastructure.
Speaker 3 (08:48):
Yeah, it's very consistent with what Russia's been doing over
the last few years in this conflict. Each time winter
has hit, Russian forces are persistently striking Ukrainian cities and
critical infrastructure, both with drones and missiles. Now they are
again focusing on energy facilities because of the brutal winter
months ahead. Now we have also seen a concerning trend
(09:14):
in another area. Analysts note a higher than usual rate
of penetration by Russian ballistic missiles. Ukraine's interception rate for
these difficult to stop weapons has actually dropped significantly, and
that's either due to the conservation of those Patriot missiles
that they use to intercept the ballistic missiles, or because
(09:35):
Russia adapted its targeting strategies with these missiles.
Speaker 2 (09:40):
For Ukraine, this is obviously a worrying development, especially with
winter approaching. So how is Ukraine countering these ongoing attacks
and also planning for its own defense.
Speaker 3 (09:52):
Production A Ukraine is attempting to ramp up its domestic
defense production and that is by a significant margin. President
Zelenski stated they are aiming for twenty billion dollars this year.
That's a tenfold increase since twenty twenty two. They're projecting
thirty five billion dollars for drones and missiles for next year.
(10:13):
That Zionanzi is actively seeking Western investment in Ukraine's defense industry,
is offering reciprocal joint ventures. We saw that with the
grain deal with the United States. We also saw it
with the Rare Earth's deal with the United States as
well with President Trump. This is a dual strategy. They
(10:35):
want to strike externally to weaken Russia. They will also
want to build internally to strengthen their own capabilities because
they know continued aggression from Russia is going to happen. Now,
the issue with this increased defense spending would be what
happens if Russia becomes successful in Ukraine? And they take
over all most or all of Ukraine. Does putin then
(10:59):
have acts to the drones and missiles bought and paid
for by the NATO countries to include the United States.
Speaker 2 (11:07):
That sounds like a complex and rapidly evolving situation, with
both military and economic strategies in full swing. The potential
supply of Tomahawks, the continued drone attacks on Russian infrastructure,
and the high casualty rates all point to a protracted
and intensifying conflict, and President Trump's role, whether through direct
(11:27):
military aid or attempting to broke her peace, remains a
central question. So for now, I want to pivot to
some good news from the week. After two years of
devastating conflict, a cautious quiet has fallen over Gaza. An
agreement has been reached, a ceasefire is in effect, and
the first phase of a complex exchange of hostages and
(11:50):
prisoners is underway. It is a moment many feared might
never arrive. So let's start with the deal. How did
this actually come together?
Speaker 3 (12:00):
Till it gets this fascinating sequence of events that, in
true Trump fashion, played out in real time to a
live audience. I think we all saw the images of
Marco Rubio passing a note to President Trump, and as
Trump does, he, much like Ron Burgundy, will read whatever
is put in front of him, and he announced to
(12:21):
the world that we have a ceasefire agreement on live television. Now,
while numerous parties were involved, the momentum appears to have
shifted dramatically with the personal intervention of President Donald Trump.
There was a critical turning point at a meeting on
the sidelines of the you In General Assembly. It was
there that he was reportedly convinced by his advisors that
(12:44):
includes Jared Kushner just Is, his son in law, and
former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair to alter his approach
on two fundamental issues.
Speaker 2 (12:55):
Oh I am so were those two issues?
Speaker 3 (12:59):
First was the idea of displacing Palestinians from Gaza that
was taken completely off the table the United States. I
knew you would you you would like that, and I
think it's something that we can all get behind. Look,
the Palestinians are living there, It's their home. It should
be their home. I think as a society, as as humans,
(13:24):
we can shift from creating these wars like the one
in Ukraine where countries are trying to gain land and
gain influence in power in order to control land and resources.
Let's let's get away from that as a society, please.
As Bill Burr would say, how is this legal? How
(13:46):
is war legal? Let's start to make it illegal now. So,
like I said, I took that off the table. They
had kept it on the table since the start of
the war because they believe Net and ya who would
never go for it. But look here we are with
an agreement in place, and I think they've taken Net
(14:07):
and Yahoo out of this as well. We'll probably get
into that later in this podcast.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
Now.
Speaker 3 (14:12):
The second thing, and perhaps the most crucial point, was
a strategic reversal. Initially, the thought was that planning for
the day after end quote we talked about this tno
on the podcast. Right, would if it's the IDF that's
controlling the area there, military is not to be used
(14:33):
for that day after for peacekeeping, right Yeah?
Speaker 2 (14:37):
And they wanted to indefinitely kind of govern the area.
Speaker 3 (14:41):
Yeah, absolutely right. So that that's where this change came in.
Who governs Gaza's post conflict? That always complicated the hostage negotiations.
The new thinking that was given to President Trump was
that it was actually a precondition for success. If they
could get a verifiable, neutral peace keeping force in Palestine
(15:07):
Gaza for the Palestinians, Hamas might agree to it. So
you had to solve the future governance question to actually
end the fighting here.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
So providing a political horizon was the key.
Speaker 3 (15:21):
Yeah, precisely. It allowed air of States to apply effective
pressure on Hamas. They could now point to a tangible
path toward potential statehood for the Palestinians. Now, at the
same time, this framework required Hamas to step aside from
future governance. This is what Israel had always asked for.
That Hamas was no longer the governing body of Gaza.
(15:43):
So it created a political off ramp that did not
previously exist.
Speaker 2 (15:49):
But personal persuasion seems like only part of the story.
There was also a significant breakdown in the relationship between
President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Natanya who was there not.
Speaker 3 (16:00):
Yeah, like I said, I thought we would get into
this today and it was. There was this sort of
breakdown in their relationship and it all stems from that
unilateral Israeli airstrike in Doha. They performed that strike aimed
at Hamas negotiators. It's severely damaged trust. Not just between
(16:22):
Israel and Hamas. We've talked about the trust factors there,
or Israel and the Arab States. We've talked about the
lack of trust there, but the trust factors between net
Yahoo and Trump. Trump was reportedly not consulted and the
fallout from that was significant Netnaw who was forced to apologize.
In an extraordinary move, Trump issued an executive order declaring
(16:45):
that a future attack on Cutter would be treated as
an attack on the United States. This is much like
Article five protections within NATO. This created a new dynamic.
It demonstrated a willingness to apply immense pressure on Israel
in a way that had had not been seen by
the United States previously.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
So let's be real here, a combination of personal ego,
strategic realignment, and diplomatic pressure. Now that the deal is
in place, what is happening on the ground. The seasfire
is active, but it has to be incredibly fragile.
Speaker 3 (17:24):
Right, Yeah, we have had agreements in the place before.
We also all remember the seasfire with Iran that was
fraught with miscommunications and miscalculations which could have derailed the agreement.
As of right now, the Israeli defense forces have withdrawn
to new agreed upon lines that officially started a seventy
two hour clock for Hamas to release the first group
(17:46):
of forty eight hostages. Look, this is not a clean,
sterile process. The withdrawal itself was conducted under fire. An
Israeli soldier was killed by sniper just hours before it began.
On the other side, we saw sports of an Israeli
strike on a school that was being used as a
shelter right as the agreement went into place. Look, ceasefires
(18:07):
are not light switches. They are more like slowly turning
down a massive chaotic machine. They are incredibly fragile. It's
born to understand that there is always a lag between
the high level decision for a ceasefire and then the
reality on the ground orders are going to have to travel.
Units are still in combat posture, So hearing about these
(18:29):
incidents right at the start is not automatically a breach.
If anyone's thinking that someone has breached, the ceasefire is
often the dangerous final echo of fighting as the command
to stop the fighting makes its way to the front lines.
Speaker 2 (18:45):
That reminds me of that movie nineteen seventeen, where like
the high in command made a decision and then sent
a messenger to run across France to get to whoever
he needs to send the message to in order to
stop a certain attack kind of thing.
Speaker 3 (19:02):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (19:02):
Absolutely, yeah, And obviously that brings us to the critical
issue of verification. This ceasefire is ultimately an agreement between
parties who probably distrust each other. And you know, it
makes sense, so who acts as the neutral third party here,
like who is on the ground to provide oversight and
(19:23):
prevent this fragile piece from shattering at the first sign
of trouble?
Speaker 3 (19:28):
And this is where the United States is going to
step in, but with a specific limited footprint. So there's
up to two hundred US troops already based in the
Middle East. They are being moved to Israel, and it's
crucial to note that they're going to Israel. They're not
going into Gaza. The Central Command or Sentcom commander released
a statement clarifying that there will be zero US boots
(19:51):
on the ground in Gaza. They are establishing what is
being called a Joint Control Center or JCC.
Speaker 2 (19:58):
So they are building a co nation hub.
Speaker 3 (20:00):
Then, yeah, exactly, it's going to be a multinational task force.
So you get the US in Israel. You're going to
see personnel from Egypt, Gutter, Turkey and the UAE within Gaza.
And their job is to monitor the ceasefire. That's first
and foremost. They want to also coordinate the flow of
humanitarian aid. They're also going to act as a communication
(20:21):
channel between the two distrusting parties we have here, Israel
and Hammas. They're going to report any violations to both
sides through the Egyptian and Kantari and Qatari mediators. Now
they are the overseers, they're not the enforcers on the ground.
Speaker 2 (20:38):
Well, I mean that makes sense. So let's talk about
the challenges ahead, because they seem to be monumental. We
have the immediate logistics of the exchange itself.
Speaker 3 (20:49):
Yeah, and that is a huge challenge. The International Committee
of the Red Cross has already worn that the scale
and the speed of this exchange, all these hostages out
within within seventy two hours, is an extremely tight time
frame and far more complex than previous exchanges. They are
preparing for all scenarios, but the details are still sparse
(21:10):
at this point.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
Okay, Well, beyond the logistics, then there is the fundamental
issue of trust. Hamas has to release its primary leverage,
which that's the hostages. So what assurances do they have
that the second phase of this deal will even happen.
Speaker 3 (21:29):
Well, it gets a core risk for them, and it's
the point of maximum danger for the entire agreement. They
are handing over the hostages now with the day after
details still to be negotiated. Now, hamaspears that once the
hostages are free, Israel will have little incentive to fully
withdraw or engage on plans for Gosza's future. I mean,
(21:52):
I even saw one of Ntyang's associates saying that there
is no phase two. I think that's a problem to
be publicly saying that. But President Trump, on the other hand,
is on record saying he has told net Yahoo that
Israel cannot fight the world and that Gaza will be rebuilt.
The agreement hinges on whether the US can or if
(22:16):
they will continue to act as a guaranteur or or
act as a guaranteur and then enforce the second phase.
Speaker 2 (22:26):
And amidst all of this high level diplomacy, the humanitarian
situation on the ground remains catastrophic.
Speaker 3 (22:34):
Yeah, it does. It's still very catastrophic. We are hearing
dire warnings from unisuff that without all AID routes opening immediately,
there could be a massive spike in child deaths. This
is coming from acute malnutrition that we've seen over the
last few months. That UNICEF warning is deeply troubling and
(22:54):
it brings up a fascinating strategic question about the narrative
landscape here. So for the last few years, any humanitarian
shortfalling Gaza has been laid at Israel's feet. But now
we're entering a new phase. With the IDF disengaged in
a multinational force composed largely of Arab states, They're gonna
(23:14):
be managing the AID corridors here. Hamas's information apparatus faces
a challenge. If AID distribution falters, who do they point
the finger at? How do they frame logistical failures or
internal problems? How we do it? On this podcast is
point at both of the parties involved, Hamas and the
(23:37):
IDF for not doing enough for the people of Palestine
or Gaza. But Hamas was always pointing the finger at
Israel and promoting how Israel was not handling the AID
situation properly. So that's always been the default assigned blame
to Israel also assigned blame to the United States. In
(24:01):
this case, the operational reality on the ground makes that
a much more complex narrative to sell.
Speaker 2 (24:07):
I'm sure they will find a way to blame someone else.
But aside from the blame game, what is the next
step on the diplomatic front?
Speaker 3 (24:16):
Well, President Trump plans to convene a major summit in
Egypt next week. Leaders from Europe, the Middle East, and
Asia are expected to attend. Now the most telling detail
is who is not going to be there. That's Prime
Minister net and Yahoo. This signals a clear intent to
build a broad international consensus on the path forward, with
(24:37):
or without Israel's full cooperation.
Speaker 2 (24:41):
At this stage, it is also interesting to see how
the different actors are positioning themselves for the future. Like Hummas,
for instance, seems to be making its preferences known.
Speaker 3 (24:52):
Yeah, very clearly. We saw a senior Hamas official praising
Trump's role, while in the same breath stating that Tony
blame would be unwelcome in any post war governance role
of citing his history in Iraq and Afghanistan. If you
no one knows the history in Iraq and Afghanistan. It
was Tony Blair along with US President then US President
(25:13):
George W. Bush that.
Speaker 2 (25:17):
Accepted basically took your childhood from you for your youth, Yeah,
basically strict to do of your youth.
Speaker 3 (25:25):
Yeah, decided to send troops into Iraq and Afghanistan. I
would put the blame on Assama bin Laden for the
Afghanistan portion. We could argue about who's to blame for
the the Iraq portion. We won't argue about who's to
blame for taking my early adulthood away from me. But
(25:47):
that's a different podcast altogether, Doctor Phil. Yeah, it's a
doctor Phil podcast. But this is an early move by
Hamas in the political chess game over who's going to
have influence and legitimacy in a rebuilt GASA.
Speaker 2 (26:06):
It is a lot to process a deal born from
a unique convergence of pressure and politics, a cease fire
held together by a multinational observation team outside the wire,
and future dependent on promises made between enemies who have
no reason to trust one another. Now it is time
to shift our focus to a concept that feels like
it is becoming more tangible every month. The idea that
(26:30):
the major conflicts we see around the world are not
as isolated as they may appear. We often talk about
the war in Ukraine, for instance, in the context of Europe,
but the information we are seeing suggests that it is
the catalyst for something much larger. But first we need
to take a quick ad break, so please stay with us.
(26:50):
We'll be right back. Welcome back, listeners. As we hinted
at before the break, we were discussing how a war
like the one in Ukraine is not a nice let conflict,
but rather a catalyst for a broader strategic alignment among
authoritarian states. So ker, let's start there. When we talk
about this larger picture in this new alignment, who are
(27:13):
the central actors we need to be watching.
Speaker 3 (27:16):
Well, Russia's of course a central actor, but it is
heavily reliant on its partner, or its partners. China is
perhaps the most significant of those partners. That's because Beijing
provides the industrial and technological backbone for the Russian military.
Now we see we are seeing Moscow receive everything from
(27:37):
machine tools as well as special chemicals for its military factories.
They're also receiving advanced satellite data that helps guide those
ballistic missiles that are used to strike Ukraine. It appears
about eighty percent of the critical electronics in Russia's drones
are now actually of Chinese origin.
Speaker 2 (27:57):
This suggests a significant diverse between China's official stance of
neutrality and its material actions.
Speaker 3 (28:05):
Yeah, you are absolutely right. This is a strategic investment
for China. They see the war in Ukraine as a
battlefield that occupies as well as weekends the global West,
as will allow China to advance their own global vision.
Now return for their support, Russia is reportedly sharing advanced
military technology with Beijing. This potentially escalator or accelerates China's
(28:32):
airborne capabilities, some are saying, some analysts say it accelerates
it by a decade or more. So they are learning
from each other.
Speaker 2 (28:43):
And then there's North Korea, which has become a surprisingly
direct participant.
Speaker 3 (28:49):
Yeah, Pyongyang has moved from a pariah state to one
of Moscow's most important military partners. They are now supplying
an estimated forty percent of Russia's artillery needs. And more
than that, as we've talked about on this podcast, they
have sent troops estimates suggests as many as fifteen thousand
to fight on the front lines in Ukraine.
Speaker 2 (29:11):
That is a stunning level of involvement. So what do
they get out of it besides cash?
Speaker 3 (29:18):
Yeah, they get something that I think is invaluable, modern
combat experience. For decades, the North Korean Army has been large,
but it's been untested. Now their soldiers are learning how
to use drones, counter modern systems, and operate in small groups.
They're taking those lessons back to their one point three
million strong army, and in return, Moscow is helping them
(29:41):
build advanced drones similar to the Iranian Shaheed models, and
they've even reportedly provided a nuclear reactor to support their
submarine development. As we talked about in a previous podcast.
Speaker 2 (29:56):
You have also mentioned Iran. They have been a key
player in the drone warfare aspect for.
Speaker 3 (30:02):
A while though right, Yeah, they are the pioneers in
the axis. In many ways, Iran helped Moscow build the
initial factories to scale a drone production, but their influence
is spreading. They've shared the same drone technology with Venezuela.
More on that front later, but they are now the
most advanced drone producer. Venezuela is the most advanced drone
(30:25):
producer in Latin America. It shows how this proliferation works
a capability developed in the Middle East is now appearing
in the Caribbean, posing a very different kind of regional threat.
Speaker 2 (30:37):
So if this axis is learning, adapting, and arming each
other in a coordinated way, how is the United States
and the West responding to this unified threat. It seems
to demand a shift in strategic thinking.
Speaker 3 (30:51):
It does, and we are seeing that happen in real time.
That shift in strategic thinking that you mentioned. The focus
now is moving to areas of the world that were
for a time considered secondary. Now the most prominent example
of this is the US state of Alaska.
Speaker 2 (31:09):
Right, for many people, especially after the Cold War, Alaska
faded from the strategic map. It was seen as remote.
Speaker 3 (31:16):
Like a backwater exactly. Yeah. For thirty years, leaders actually
had to argue to keep federal investment in the military
bases there. Now Alaska is once again a priority. Is
viewed not just as a staging ground to protect American
power outward, but as a potential theater of conflict itself.
Speaker 2 (31:36):
So what makes it so critical now, Well, I think.
Speaker 3 (31:40):
It's the geography of Alaska. Alaska bridges two vital regions,
the Arctic and the Indo Pacific. So in any potential
conflict with China over Taiwan. For example, the forward US
bases in places like Japan and Guam are extremely vulnerable
to an initial wave of attacks. That makes the basis
in Alaska and Hawaii for that matter, the next best
(32:03):
alternative to staging those forces. They would be the launch
points for surviving bombers and jets coming from Guam in Japan.
Speaker 2 (32:13):
Which of course would make those Alaskan bases a primary
target for China.
Speaker 3 (32:18):
Yeah. Absolutely, and the US military is preparing for that
very reality. Recent large scale military exercises held there were
specifically reimagined to simulate a conflict taking place in Alaska.
They practice scenarios like building a backup port near Anchorage
assuming the main one was unavailable or destroyed, and the
goal is to ensure they can both defend the homeland
(32:40):
in Alaska and project power into the Pacific simultaneously.
Speaker 2 (32:45):
Okay, well, we've talked about Russia, China, North Korea, and
briefly Iran. But Iran it's a key part of this
access and that situation seems to be on knife's edge.
So I'm going to get a little bit more deepas
tell about what Iran's part in this is.
Speaker 3 (33:03):
Yeah, I think they are an incredibly volatile component of
this entire picture. So back in June of this year,
as we talked about on this podcast, tension spiked dramatically
after alleged, well not alleged, actual US strikes on Irani
and nuclear facilities. Tehran's response was unequivocal. They reserved all
(33:23):
options to defend themselves. They warned of everlasting consequences.
Speaker 2 (33:29):
So how does a direct flashpoint like that between the
US and Iran ripple through this broader alliance that we
have been discussing.
Speaker 3 (33:38):
Well, I think it raises the stakes for everyone. Iran
is not just a regional power, and as we've established,
Iran is a key technology provider and partner to Russia.
A direct conflict involving Iran that's not going to happen
in a vacuum. It would demand a response from its
partners that could create crises on multiple fronts. Russia could
(34:00):
increased support, China could see it as another opportunity to
bog down the US, and it would have immediate effects
on global energy and shipping, especially with actors like the
Hoofs and Yemen. They are already receiving Russian satellite data
in order to target ships commercial ships within their region.
Speaker 2 (34:22):
So a new conflict in the Middle East could directly
impact the strategic balance in the Pacific and in Europe.
The world is far more interconnected than we might be
comfortable admitting. The lessons learned on one side of the
globe are being prepared for use on the other side
of the globe. Defeating one actor is no longer just
(34:42):
about that single actor. It is about stopping the spread
of battlefield lessons to an entire network of regimes that
see themselves in a shared struggle against the West. For now,
I want to shift to a country you briefly spoke about, Venezuela,
So let us start with Venezuela's recent and appealed to
the United Nations. We saw them calling for an emergency
(35:03):
session of the Security Council, So what was their core complaint?
Speaker 3 (35:08):
Curvin Well, Venezuela formally requested an emergency session of the
UN Security Council, and their primary concern stemmed from recent
US military actions in the waters off of their coast.
Caracas framed these actions as mounting threats from the United States,
particularly after a series of military strikes on boats that
(35:29):
American officials alleged were involved in drug trafficking.
Speaker 2 (35:34):
And they did not just stop at reporting military actions,
did they. They made some very direct accusations against the
Trump administration's intensions.
Speaker 3 (35:44):
Yeah. Absolutely. Venezuela's letter, addressed to Russia's UN ambassador, explicitly
accused the Trump administration of seeking to a top well
President Nicholas Maduro. They argued that these actions were threatening peace,
security and stability regionally, aim and internationally. Even went so
far as to express an expectation of an armed attack
(36:05):
against Venezuela in quote a very short time end quote.
Speaker 2 (36:11):
That is a very strong claim. So how did the
United States respond to such an accusation At the UN meeting?
Speaker 3 (36:18):
The US response was that President Trump resolves to use
the quote full power of America and the full might
of the United States to take on and eradicate these
drug cartels, no matter where they are operating. From end quote,
the US maintained that these cartels are armed, well organized,
and violent, necessitating the use of force in self defense
(36:41):
and in the defense of others. It's important to note
that the US used this as a quote non international
armed conflict end quote. With the cartels, it's consistent with
the right to self defense under the UN Charter.
Speaker 2 (36:57):
So a clear difference and ramily issue. Venezuela sees it
as a threat to sovereignty, and the US frames it
as an anti drug operation. But there's been more going
on behind the scenes, Has there not, specifically some rather
extraordinary diplomatic overtures from Venezuela.
Speaker 3 (37:15):
Yeah, this is where the narrative becomes even more complex.
While publicly defiant, Venezuelan officials with President of Maduro's blessing,
were reportedly engaged in months long discussions with the Trump administration.
They offered a dominant steak in Venezuela's vast oil and
mineral wealth.
Speaker 2 (37:33):
A dominant steak. That sounds like a significant concession. So
what exactly was on the table?
Speaker 3 (37:40):
Yeah, you're right, this was a far reaching offer Tiana.
Under this proposed deal, Maduro's government was prepared to open
up all existing in future oil and gold projects to
American companies. They would also grant preferential contracts to American
businesses and reverse the flow of Venezuelan oil exports from
China to the United States. They'd also significantly reduce its
(38:05):
energy and mining contracts with Chinese, Iranian, and Russian firms.
Speaker 2 (38:10):
Well, I mean that would be a complete reorientation of
their economic allegiances. Given these extensive concessions, why did the
Trump administration ultimately reject the offer and cut off diplomacy.
Speaker 3 (38:23):
Well, despite progress on economic issues, the negotiations reportedly failed
to reach an agreement on President Maduro's political future. Maduro's
foreign minister explicitly stated that Maduro would not negotiate his
exit from leadership. This appears to have been a crucial
sticking point for Venezuela and the United States. There's also
(38:44):
strong opposition within the Trump administration, particularly from figures like
Marco Rubio, who consistently advocated for Maduro's removal and was
skeptical of a diplomatic approach.
Speaker 2 (38:57):
So even with the amensic nomic incentives, the political component
was non negotiable for both sides. We also know that
the US has maintained a strong stance against Maduro's legitimacy,
even offering a significant bounty for his arrest.
Speaker 3 (39:13):
Yeah, you're absolutely right. The US does not recognized Maduro
or his government. They label him a narco terrorist. It's
an accusation Maduro and his government vehemently deny. This fundamental
disagreement on legitimacy certainly complicates any diplomatic resolution.
Speaker 2 (39:31):
It is interesting how this all unfolded just hours before
Maria Karina Machado, a Venezuelan political opposition leader, was awarded
the twenty twenty five Nobel Peace Prize. That must have
added another layer to the geopolitical landscape.
Speaker 3 (39:46):
Yeah. Absolutely, Even as the government was making these desperate
attempts at repproachment with the United States, an opposition leader
was primed for a Nobel Peace Prize. It further highlights
the deeply fractured political situation within Venezuela itself.
Speaker 2 (40:03):
We also heard about an alternative economic proposal being pitched
in Washington by Miss Machado's movement. Can you tell us
a little bit about that.
Speaker 3 (40:13):
Yeah, So, while the US was negotiating with Maduro's envoye,
Miss Machado's movement was presenting its own economic proposal in Washington,
d C. They argued that a democratic transition could unlock
even greater wealth for the US companies in Venezuela, projecting
one point seven trillion dollars in fifteen years. Your economic
(40:34):
adviser emphasized that Maduro's offers of investment would not materialize
without democracy, rule of law, and individual freedoms. It called
his offers quote unquote or quote control maintained through terror
end quote.
Speaker 2 (40:51):
So a clear distinction between the stability offered by an
authoritarian regime versus the stability promised by a democratic tre position,
each with their own appeal to foreign investors. This really
shows the competing visions for Venezuela's future. So, as we
wrap up, Curvin, what do you see as the overall
takeaway from these developments?
Speaker 3 (41:13):
I believe the key takeaway is the multifaceted nature of
this conflict. Neither the US focus on job trafficking nor
Venezuela's claim of a regime change plot fully explains the
entirety of the conflict. The reality is a complex mix
of both. It's fueled by economic desperation, an internal power struggle,
(41:33):
and the geopolitical ambitions of Russia and China. Regarding Venezuela's resources.
Speaker 2 (41:40):
A very insightful overview. As always, Curban, it is a
situation that continues to evolve and we will certainly be
keeping a close eye on it. Is there anything else
you want to discuss? Like the super cool two weeks
that we just said thank you, Yeah, we're back. Did
you miss us? Thank you for being patient while we
(42:00):
took a break from everything and hung out. We finally
got the hack out.
Speaker 3 (42:08):
Yeah, absolutely, it was. It was a fantastic time. We
forgot a lot of what was going on, or forgot
about a lot of what was going on.
Speaker 2 (42:16):
Oh yeah, I'm gonna be completely honest. I did not
keep up with the news at all the entire time
we were I'm not going to say we were off great.
We weren't off great. We were just unplugged pretty much.
Speaker 3 (42:29):
Yes, definitely we were. We were present and available with
each other and the kids, and so that was really nice. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (42:39):
I mean, it would have been cool if I didn't
get sick while you were here and and then sick
after you left, like I was out of a commit
I still don't know what it was, but I blame
it on. There was this kid that like open mouth,
sneezed on me in Amsterdam, and pretty sure he gave
me whatever he had because I sneek. I sneezed so
(43:01):
much with whatever it was, I would sneeze eight to
ten times back to back so hard that I had
tears coming out of my eyes by the time I
was done. But anyways, yeah, we kind of hopped continents.
I me and our friend flew to Germany and we
(43:23):
hung out with Curvin for a week, and then Curvin
came back with us and hung out for a week.
And now we're back to this.
Speaker 3 (43:35):
We're back to this, back to this for now.
Speaker 2 (43:39):
Germany is awesome.
Speaker 3 (43:42):
I wait a lot.
Speaker 2 (43:43):
I had never I had never been there before, and
I loved it so much. It was wonderful. I can
see why my uncle packed up and moved there thirty
years ago. Like I totally get why he moved there.
(44:04):
It was Yeah, it was wonderful. I loved it. Ten
l ten will be back again.
Speaker 3 (44:10):
So yeah, I didn't. I mean, as soon as we
landed and got into DC traffic, I was reminded why
I left. It's true, you saw that in real time.
Speaker 2 (44:22):
Oh my gosh, you were driving crazy. You were so
like you were annoyed at the traffic. And I was
because I was in the back seat whenever you were driving,
because I'm sure I'm the shortest person obviously, so I
sat in the back. But because I couldn't see the road,
it was giving me motion sickness. So I was like
(44:43):
snapping at you for every little batman maneuver that you
were making, and you were like, I hate the traffic.
The traffic is garbage here for sure, worst in the
in the nation, I believe.
Speaker 3 (44:55):
Oh what's that.
Speaker 2 (44:57):
It was voted. I'm pretty sure you're like the top
of the pole of worst area to drive in the
United States of America. So congratulations to us in the DMV's.
Speaker 3 (45:10):
We didn't hop in a vehicle once in Germany because.
Speaker 2 (45:13):
No, we didn't need to.
Speaker 3 (45:16):
And it was great. It was glorious.
Speaker 2 (45:19):
It was it was I mean, don't get me wrong,
I have a ways to go before I'll be able
to navigate that it looked confusing as heck to me.
Speaker 3 (45:30):
No, that's only because you let me take control and
guide us around. If you had to, you would have
figured it out.
Speaker 2 (45:38):
Yeah. I don't know, I don't know. Maybe I don't know,
but yeah, well that's fine with me, that's fine. But also, yeah,
just the food, I know I talked about I don't
know if I talked about the pints of mashed potatoes.
We didn't go get the pints of mashed potatoes this time,
(45:58):
but I did get at the best baked potato. Oh
my life.
Speaker 3 (46:04):
Ruminiscent of your love of cage and potato.
Speaker 2 (46:07):
Oh yeah, I don't know if anyone's been baked potato. Yeah,
I don't know if anyone's been the Cajun potato in Homa, Louisiana.
But oh my gosh, I would go there all the time.
But this potato was I don't even know. It was
just my favorite thing that I've really locked on. And
I miss it and I'm really sad, and I wish
(46:28):
I could have more of the cheesy spotsl that came
with it. I don't know, I don't know. We just
we just had a great time and it. Yeah, I
can't wait to go back. Can't wait to go back.
And yeah, oh yeah. And also, happy seventeenth birthday to
(46:48):
our baby. Our baby is baby seventeen today.
Speaker 3 (46:54):
Yeah, can you believe that? Yes, we are old enough
to have a seventeen year old.
Speaker 2 (46:59):
We have a twenty one year old. Guys, I get.
Speaker 3 (47:02):
That a lot when I tell people you're not old
enough for that.
Speaker 2 (47:06):
Interlike surprise, we just ropped.
Speaker 3 (47:11):
Back to back. This was my I mean, I had
always thought of that, like either there's two ways to
start a family. You either do it really early so
that then you can have fun, you know, in your
forties or fifties, or you wait and you have all
of your fun in your twenties and then the rest
(47:33):
of your life is that's fun.
Speaker 2 (47:35):
It's fun. We had fun even as we had kids, though,
because I mean we traveled. We traveled a lot and
went out a lot and did Oh. I just got
a notification on my laptop that Columbus Days tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (47:51):
It is, and I will be celebrating my.
Speaker 2 (47:54):
People's favorite holiday.
Speaker 3 (47:56):
We love the colody that I work for, which will
remain nameless. And yes, podcast they do not celebrate this day.
Speaker 2 (48:06):
They don't. Congrats to them. That makes me like them
even more.
Speaker 3 (48:11):
Yeah, m they actually give an extra day for the
fourth of July to celebrate even more for America's birthday.
Speaker 2 (48:22):
Did they give you the space of July off?
Speaker 3 (48:25):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (48:27):
Nice? So you really you really do have to go
into work tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (48:30):
No, I'm taking it off. No one's going to be
there tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (48:35):
Oh well, anyways, anyways, Yeah, we had a great time
together and I missed that dude a whole lot. You
can come back anytime, and I want to go back adytime,
and they're oh yeah, let's talk about.
Speaker 3 (48:54):
Bar, okay, And now so we have definitely got an
off of the portion of the oh yeah, yeah, near
onto bar.
Speaker 2 (49:05):
We're onto Bar. That's my new favorite place in the
whole world. It's this bar that doesn't have any clear
hours of operation. It's called bar barra.
Speaker 3 (49:18):
I think, yeah it is. Uh, we just call it.
Speaker 2 (49:22):
Bar because it's bar with exclamation points. And it is
a local joint, not flashy. It reminds us of the
type of bars that we go to in South like
when our hometown's you know, locally run, not very flashy,
but very hometown feel. And I, I don't know, I
(49:48):
just loved the I loved the vibe in there. It
wasn't pretentious. It was basic cocktails and beers in bottles and.
Speaker 3 (50:00):
And yeah, we didn't have a cocktail, did we, No,
we didn't.
Speaker 2 (50:04):
We just we just stuck a beer. But also one
of the bartenders who was wearing a very sparkly outfit.
I think it was required that all the bartenders wear
sparkly skirts and stuff. I don't know, but they were
wearing very sparkly outfits. And she brought us three shots
(50:25):
and I wish I knew what she was saying, because
obviously she was speaking German, and she wrapped off a
bunch of stuff to us, and then she said prost,
and so we took a shot with her. I don't
know what it was.
Speaker 3 (50:37):
But but we survived it.
Speaker 2 (50:41):
We survived it whatever it was, and we were just like,
I don't know, I just felt like we were being
welcomed into the neighborhood kind of thing.
Speaker 3 (50:50):
It was.
Speaker 2 (50:51):
It was really really enjoyable. I mean, don't get me wrong,
I enjoyed every part of the trip. And our friend
Ryan one of the best travel companions we've had. Because
some people have very clear ideas on what they want
to do, and they have like a detailed list of
(51:13):
all the things, and they have the times that they
want to accomplish it, and we didn't have. We just
decided on a whim what we were going to do.
Speaker 3 (51:22):
And it was we decided the day we wake that
moment we woke up, what are we doing today?
Speaker 2 (51:27):
Yeah, basically, and it was nice to have somebody so
chill and relaxed and just going with the flow, which
we appreciate because we are the kind of people that
like to just kind of wander around outside of the
tourist areas and I mean we'll go do things, you know,
(51:48):
But we did. Yeah, we went. We did go to Volksfest.
I mean I didn't participate for long and.
Speaker 3 (51:53):
Volksfest because you and me both sister.
Speaker 2 (51:58):
Yeah, we left. We love Volksfest early. But I don't know,
it was it was just fun. We had a lot
of fun.
Speaker 3 (52:06):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (52:07):
Yeah, I just wanted to talk about Bar because Bar
was Bar was great.
Speaker 3 (52:13):
And as she said, it's opened when it's open.
Speaker 2 (52:15):
It's open when it's over. We don't know when it's
actually open. It was just luck that it was open.
Speaker 3 (52:24):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (52:25):
I don't know. I don't even know if this little
tangent flows all that well.
Speaker 3 (52:30):
But you know, I don't think tangents need to flow.
I just think they are tangents.
Speaker 2 (52:37):
Yeah, yeah, okay, Well anyway, Happy birthday, tour.
Speaker 3 (52:43):
Happy birthday, which I told her Happy birthday at seven am,
which was like one am for her. She was still awake.
She texted me when I woke up and said, it's
my birthday, so you.
Speaker 2 (52:59):
Wish her happy bar birthday? After she texted you or before, yes, which.
Speaker 3 (53:03):
One after she texted me because I had just woke up.
Speaker 2 (53:08):
Your yes came in after I said did you text
her before or after? And then you.
Speaker 3 (53:14):
Were like, yes, yes, I did. Two things can be
true at the same time.
Speaker 2 (53:19):
No, this can't. No, not in this situation. No, But
which one was it?
Speaker 3 (53:25):
It was after she said it.
Speaker 2 (53:27):
Oh, that's cute that she text you. It's my birthday.
We're going to get grab. Yes, my birthday, We're going
to get crab today. Because she wan't nice Rab. She
couldn't think of anything that she wanted. And I was like,
we don't have to stay in this area. We can
go into the district, we can go to Annandell, we
(53:48):
can go to you know, wherever you want to go, Springfield,
whatever you want to do. We don't have to stay here.
And then she was like crab, which I'm I'm pretty sure.
I don't know if I mentioned it already, but she
already cashed in her birthday gift, which was a trip
to New York City to see her favorite play of
(54:08):
all time and her favorite stage actor make his Broadway debut.
And you know, we had like four or five days
in New York City just hanging out one on one time,
saw plays. Every single day. We were there eight food. Yeah,
so she already cashed in her birthday present. But today
we're going to go dinner and celebrate that little nugget,
(54:33):
that little nugget baby. Oh, it's gonna be fun for you, yeah, hey,
it will be nice cause.
Speaker 3 (54:41):
Well for her it'll be fun.
Speaker 2 (54:42):
Yeah. Yeah. And then I'm sure she'll whenever she goes
hang out with her second family later on this week.
Speaker 3 (54:51):
Hang out with him. Yeah those people.
Speaker 2 (54:56):
Yeah, her adopted grandma will probably give her a block
of cheese and come by, nice cheese.
Speaker 3 (55:02):
I love it.
Speaker 2 (55:03):
Seventeen years old and that child still requests cheese for
her birthday. Ever since she could speak, Ever since she
could speak, she asked for cheese for her birthday. So
here we go, just keeping with tradition.
Speaker 3 (55:18):
Yes, all right, all right.
Speaker 2 (55:20):
Let's let's shut up. We've you know, jibber, jabbered, enef
our little heads off what they want, given the people
what they want. But anyway, so yes, anything else, that's
all I have as we wrap it up. Okay, Well,
thank you so much for listening to this week explained.
We hope that you found it both informative and engaging.
(55:41):
If you have any feedback or suggestions, for future episodes.
We'd love to hear from you, so for more in
depth coverage of these stories and more, be sure to
follow us on social media.
Speaker 3 (55:50):
This week explained Tianna, thank you so much, and until
next week, stay safe out there.
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Tired of feeling overwhelmed by the headlines, want to truly
understand the why behind the global chaos and you are
in the right place. Welcome to this week Explained, your
weekly deep diving in the most complex and impactful stories
shaping our world. I'm Tianna and joining me as always
is Curvin. Before we jump into the crucial developments of
the week, a quick favor. If you want to ensure
(02:37):
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Leon Media Network. This week, we're diving into the latest
from Ukraine and Gaza a burgeoning access rising from the
conflict in Ukraine and what the heck is happening in Venezuela.
(03:24):
So let's start, as always with the war in Ukraine.
This week, it seems like the political landscape around the
conflict is shifting quite dramatically, So let us start with
what appears to be a major policy reconsideration from the
Trump administration. We've heard reports about the US President considering
supplying Tomhawk missiles to Ukraine. This feels like a rather
(03:47):
stark change in approach. So what do we know about
this potential move?
Speaker 3 (03:52):
Yeah, you're right, Cianna, it is a very significant shift.
It's also one that's caused a bit of garbled messaging,
as we've seen. So Vice President Vance he's confirmed that
these conversations are ongoing and President Trump is going to
make a final determination.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
Now.
Speaker 3 (04:09):
The Tomahawk, by its very nature, is a long range
strike weapon that if supplied, it would drastically improve Ukraine's
capability to hit targets deep within Russian territory. This includes
potential government buildings in Moscow.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Well, that would certainly elevate the stakes, but it not.
I mean, we have also seen conflicting signals about whether
Ukraine would be authorized to use such weapons for deep strikes.
Speaker 3 (04:36):
Yeah, and that's where the garbled messaging comes in. So
Trump's envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, he initially suggested that
Ukraine would have authorization for deep strikes. Then he clarified
his remarks as I said, the very purpose of these
missiles is for long range strikes. So this unclear messaging
(04:58):
seems a bit off to me. What is clear, though,
is that the discussion itself, whether it leads to a
supply of these missiles or not, sends a strong message
to Russia.
Speaker 2 (05:11):
It is interesting that this comes after President Trump's recent
success in brokering a peace deal between Israel and Hamas,
which we will obviously discuss later. Yet he has described
the Ukraine war as even harder to solve. He even
met with President Putin in Alaska, which didn't result in
a breakthrough.
Speaker 3 (05:31):
Again, you make a crucial point there, Sanna. The Alaska
meeting did not yield the desired results. If you listen
to this podcast, you knew that's what was going to happen.
But since then, Russian attacks have escalated. Moscow itself has
stated that the prospects for peace steel have largely vanished,
and the Finish president expressed confidence in Trump's ability to
(05:52):
push through a deal, even though Russia is saying that
there will be no peace deal now. The Finish President
is probably viewing the Gaza agreement as the precedent here,
something that Trump could likely use in a Ukraine Russia
piece deal in the future. But the dynamics in Ukraine,
(06:13):
I would say, are profoundly different than that conflict.
Speaker 2 (06:18):
Speaking of escalation, we have seen an uptick in Ukrainian
attacks on Russian territory, particularly in the Belgarod region. So
what is the scope of these strikes.
Speaker 3 (06:28):
We certainly are seeing a consistent pattern of Ukrainian strikes,
especially as you mentioned on Belgarode. This has led to
casualties and significant power outages in Russia. This is part
of Ukraine's broader aerial campaign which has intensified dramatically in
recent months. They have been targeting Russian oil refineries and
they've been considerably successful in this successful In what way
(06:54):
are these attacks actually having a tangible effect? I think
they are in reading reports, those reports are indicating that
at certain points, up to thirty eight percent of Russia's
refining capacity has been disabled. This has led to fuel shortages,
also price increases within Russia. This is forcing them to
increase expensive imports. They're even buying gasoline back from China
(07:18):
at a markup after selling that crude oil at a discount.
The Ukraine is demonstrating that ingenuity can sometimes offset Russia's
sheer mte in certain situations. They're using low cost drones
to hit distant target distant targets. Some of those targets
are over two thousand kilometers away.
Speaker 2 (07:37):
So a clear strategy to impact Russia's military and economy
through fuel supply. Meanwhile, what is the current situation on
the frontlines. Russian forces claim to be making advances.
Speaker 3 (07:50):
Yeah, that is what is being reported from pro Russian sources.
Russia claims to have seized several villages. They also maintain
the strategic initiative in this conflict.
Speaker 2 (08:01):
Now.
Speaker 3 (08:01):
President Putin stated nearly five thousand square kilometers of Ukrainian
territory have been captured this year alone, though independent assessments
placed that figure a bit lower than the five thousand
square kilometers. But these gains have come at a very
high cost in terms of personnel for Russia. Estimates based
on recently leaked documents suggest that well over a quarter
(08:24):
of a million Russian casualties have occurred in the first
eight months of this year.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
Well, those are truly staggering numbers if they are accurate.
And what about the air war over Ukraine. We've heard
about continued Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure as winter approaches,
which seems to be par for the course for them
whenever get closer to winter, they started attacking energy infrastructure.
Speaker 3 (08:48):
Yeah, it's very consistent with what Russia's been doing over
the last few years in this conflict. Each time winter
has hit, Russian forces are persistently striking Ukrainian cities and
critical infrastructure, both with drones and missiles. Now they are
again focusing on energy facilities because of the brutal winter
months ahead. Now we have also seen a concerning trend
(09:14):
in another area. Analysts note a higher than usual rate
of penetration by Russian ballistic missiles. Ukraine's interception rate for
these difficult to stop weapons has actually dropped significantly, and
that's either due to the conservation of those Patriot missiles
that they use to intercept the ballistic missiles, or because
(09:35):
Russia adapted its targeting strategies with these missiles.
Speaker 2 (09:40):
For Ukraine, this is obviously a worrying development, especially with
winter approaching. So how is Ukraine countering these ongoing attacks
and also planning for its own defense.
Speaker 3 (09:52):
Production A Ukraine is attempting to ramp up its domestic
defense production and that is by a significant margin. President
Zelenski stated they are aiming for twenty billion dollars this year.
That's a tenfold increase since twenty twenty two. They're projecting
thirty five billion dollars for drones and missiles for next year.
(10:13):
That Zionanzi is actively seeking Western investment in Ukraine's defense industry,
is offering reciprocal joint ventures. We saw that with the
grain deal with the United States. We also saw it
with the Rare Earth's deal with the United States as
well with President Trump. This is a dual strategy. They
(10:35):
want to strike externally to weaken Russia. They will also
want to build internally to strengthen their own capabilities because
they know continued aggression from Russia is going to happen. Now,
the issue with this increased defense spending would be what
happens if Russia becomes successful in Ukraine? And they take
over all most or all of Ukraine. Does putin then
(10:59):
have acts to the drones and missiles bought and paid
for by the NATO countries to include the United States.
Speaker 2 (11:07):
That sounds like a complex and rapidly evolving situation, with
both military and economic strategies in full swing. The potential
supply of Tomahawks, the continued drone attacks on Russian infrastructure,
and the high casualty rates all point to a protracted
and intensifying conflict, and President Trump's role, whether through direct
(11:27):
military aid or attempting to broke her peace, remains a
central question. So for now, I want to pivot to
some good news from the week. After two years of
devastating conflict, a cautious quiet has fallen over Gaza. An
agreement has been reached, a ceasefire is in effect, and
the first phase of a complex exchange of hostages and
(11:50):
prisoners is underway. It is a moment many feared might
never arrive. So let's start with the deal. How did
this actually come together?
Speaker 3 (12:00):
Till it gets this fascinating sequence of events that, in
true Trump fashion, played out in real time to a
live audience. I think we all saw the images of
Marco Rubio passing a note to President Trump, and as
Trump does, he, much like Ron Burgundy, will read whatever
is put in front of him, and he announced to
(12:21):
the world that we have a ceasefire agreement on live television. Now,
while numerous parties were involved, the momentum appears to have
shifted dramatically with the personal intervention of President Donald Trump.
There was a critical turning point at a meeting on
the sidelines of the you In General Assembly. It was
there that he was reportedly convinced by his advisors that
(12:44):
includes Jared Kushner just Is, his son in law, and
former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair to alter his approach
on two fundamental issues.
Speaker 2 (12:55):
Oh I am so were those two issues?
Speaker 3 (12:59):
First was the idea of displacing Palestinians from Gaza that
was taken completely off the table the United States. I
knew you would you you would like that, and I
think it's something that we can all get behind. Look,
the Palestinians are living there, It's their home. It should
be their home. I think as a society, as as humans,
(13:24):
we can shift from creating these wars like the one
in Ukraine where countries are trying to gain land and
gain influence in power in order to control land and resources.
Let's let's get away from that as a society, please.
As Bill Burr would say, how is this legal? How
(13:46):
is war legal? Let's start to make it illegal now. So,
like I said, I took that off the table. They
had kept it on the table since the start of
the war because they believe Net and ya who would
never go for it. But look here we are with
an agreement in place, and I think they've taken Net
(14:07):
and Yahoo out of this as well. We'll probably get
into that later in this podcast.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
Now.
Speaker 3 (14:12):
The second thing, and perhaps the most crucial point, was
a strategic reversal. Initially, the thought was that planning for
the day after end quote we talked about this tno
on the podcast. Right, would if it's the IDF that's
controlling the area there, military is not to be used
(14:33):
for that day after for peacekeeping, right Yeah?
Speaker 2 (14:37):
And they wanted to indefinitely kind of govern the area.
Speaker 3 (14:41):
Yeah, absolutely right. So that that's where this change came in.
Who governs Gaza's post conflict? That always complicated the hostage negotiations.
The new thinking that was given to President Trump was
that it was actually a precondition for success. If they
could get a verifiable, neutral peace keeping force in Palestine
(15:07):
Gaza for the Palestinians, Hamas might agree to it. So
you had to solve the future governance question to actually
end the fighting here.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
So providing a political horizon was the key.
Speaker 3 (15:21):
Yeah, precisely. It allowed air of States to apply effective
pressure on Hamas. They could now point to a tangible
path toward potential statehood for the Palestinians. Now, at the
same time, this framework required Hamas to step aside from
future governance. This is what Israel had always asked for.
That Hamas was no longer the governing body of Gaza.
(15:43):
So it created a political off ramp that did not
previously exist.
Speaker 2 (15:49):
But personal persuasion seems like only part of the story.
There was also a significant breakdown in the relationship between
President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Natanya who was there not.
Speaker 3 (16:00):
Yeah, like I said, I thought we would get into
this today and it was. There was this sort of
breakdown in their relationship and it all stems from that
unilateral Israeli airstrike in Doha. They performed that strike aimed
at Hamas negotiators. It's severely damaged trust. Not just between
(16:22):
Israel and Hamas. We've talked about the trust factors there,
or Israel and the Arab States. We've talked about the
lack of trust there, but the trust factors between net
Yahoo and Trump. Trump was reportedly not consulted and the
fallout from that was significant Netnaw who was forced to apologize.
In an extraordinary move, Trump issued an executive order declaring
(16:45):
that a future attack on Cutter would be treated as
an attack on the United States. This is much like
Article five protections within NATO. This created a new dynamic.
It demonstrated a willingness to apply immense pressure on Israel
in a way that had had not been seen by
the United States previously.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
So let's be real here, a combination of personal ego,
strategic realignment, and diplomatic pressure. Now that the deal is
in place, what is happening on the ground. The seasfire
is active, but it has to be incredibly fragile.
Speaker 3 (17:24):
Right, Yeah, we have had agreements in the place before.
We also all remember the seasfire with Iran that was
fraught with miscommunications and miscalculations which could have derailed the agreement.
As of right now, the Israeli defense forces have withdrawn
to new agreed upon lines that officially started a seventy
two hour clock for Hamas to release the first group
(17:46):
of forty eight hostages. Look, this is not a clean,
sterile process. The withdrawal itself was conducted under fire. An
Israeli soldier was killed by sniper just hours before it began.
On the other side, we saw sports of an Israeli
strike on a school that was being used as a
shelter right as the agreement went into place. Look, ceasefires
(18:07):
are not light switches. They are more like slowly turning
down a massive chaotic machine. They are incredibly fragile. It's
born to understand that there is always a lag between
the high level decision for a ceasefire and then the
reality on the ground orders are going to have to travel.
Units are still in combat posture, So hearing about these
(18:29):
incidents right at the start is not automatically a breach.
If anyone's thinking that someone has breached, the ceasefire is
often the dangerous final echo of fighting as the command
to stop the fighting makes its way to the front lines.
Speaker 2 (18:45):
That reminds me of that movie nineteen seventeen, where like
the high in command made a decision and then sent
a messenger to run across France to get to whoever
he needs to send the message to in order to
stop a certain attack kind of thing.
Speaker 3 (19:02):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (19:02):
Absolutely, yeah, And obviously that brings us to the critical
issue of verification. This ceasefire is ultimately an agreement between
parties who probably distrust each other. And you know, it
makes sense, so who acts as the neutral third party here,
like who is on the ground to provide oversight and
(19:23):
prevent this fragile piece from shattering at the first sign
of trouble?
Speaker 3 (19:28):
And this is where the United States is going to
step in, but with a specific limited footprint. So there's
up to two hundred US troops already based in the
Middle East. They are being moved to Israel, and it's
crucial to note that they're going to Israel. They're not
going into Gaza. The Central Command or Sentcom commander released
a statement clarifying that there will be zero US boots
(19:51):
on the ground in Gaza. They are establishing what is
being called a Joint Control Center or JCC.
Speaker 2 (19:58):
So they are building a co nation hub.
Speaker 3 (20:00):
Then, yeah, exactly, it's going to be a multinational task force.
So you get the US in Israel. You're going to
see personnel from Egypt, Gutter, Turkey and the UAE within Gaza.
And their job is to monitor the ceasefire. That's first
and foremost. They want to also coordinate the flow of
humanitarian aid. They're also going to act as a communication
(20:21):
channel between the two distrusting parties we have here, Israel
and Hammas. They're going to report any violations to both
sides through the Egyptian and Kantari and Qatari mediators. Now
they are the overseers, they're not the enforcers on the ground.
Speaker 2 (20:38):
Well, I mean that makes sense. So let's talk about
the challenges ahead, because they seem to be monumental. We
have the immediate logistics of the exchange itself.
Speaker 3 (20:49):
Yeah, and that is a huge challenge. The International Committee
of the Red Cross has already worn that the scale
and the speed of this exchange, all these hostages out
within within seventy two hours, is an extremely tight time
frame and far more complex than previous exchanges. They are
preparing for all scenarios, but the details are still sparse
(21:10):
at this point.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
Okay, Well, beyond the logistics, then there is the fundamental
issue of trust. Hamas has to release its primary leverage,
which that's the hostages. So what assurances do they have
that the second phase of this deal will even happen.
Speaker 3 (21:29):
Well, it gets a core risk for them, and it's
the point of maximum danger for the entire agreement. They
are handing over the hostages now with the day after
details still to be negotiated. Now, hamaspears that once the
hostages are free, Israel will have little incentive to fully
withdraw or engage on plans for Gosza's future. I mean,
(21:52):
I even saw one of Ntyang's associates saying that there
is no phase two. I think that's a problem to
be publicly saying that. But President Trump, on the other hand,
is on record saying he has told net Yahoo that
Israel cannot fight the world and that Gaza will be rebuilt.
The agreement hinges on whether the US can or if
(22:16):
they will continue to act as a guaranteur or or
act as a guaranteur and then enforce the second phase.
Speaker 2 (22:26):
And amidst all of this high level diplomacy, the humanitarian
situation on the ground remains catastrophic.
Speaker 3 (22:34):
Yeah, it does. It's still very catastrophic. We are hearing
dire warnings from unisuff that without all AID routes opening immediately,
there could be a massive spike in child deaths. This
is coming from acute malnutrition that we've seen over the
last few months. That UNICEF warning is deeply troubling and
(22:54):
it brings up a fascinating strategic question about the narrative
landscape here. So for the last few years, any humanitarian
shortfalling Gaza has been laid at Israel's feet. But now
we're entering a new phase. With the IDF disengaged in
a multinational force composed largely of Arab states, They're gonna
(23:14):
be managing the AID corridors here. Hamas's information apparatus faces
a challenge. If AID distribution falters, who do they point
the finger at? How do they frame logistical failures or
internal problems? How we do it? On this podcast is
point at both of the parties involved, Hamas and the
(23:37):
IDF for not doing enough for the people of Palestine
or Gaza. But Hamas was always pointing the finger at
Israel and promoting how Israel was not handling the AID
situation properly. So that's always been the default assigned blame
to Israel also assigned blame to the United States. In
(24:01):
this case, the operational reality on the ground makes that
a much more complex narrative to sell.
Speaker 2 (24:07):
I'm sure they will find a way to blame someone else.
But aside from the blame game, what is the next
step on the diplomatic front?
Speaker 3 (24:16):
Well, President Trump plans to convene a major summit in
Egypt next week. Leaders from Europe, the Middle East, and
Asia are expected to attend. Now the most telling detail
is who is not going to be there. That's Prime
Minister net and Yahoo. This signals a clear intent to
build a broad international consensus on the path forward, with
(24:37):
or without Israel's full cooperation.
Speaker 2 (24:41):
At this stage, it is also interesting to see how
the different actors are positioning themselves for the future. Like Hummas,
for instance, seems to be making its preferences known.
Speaker 3 (24:52):
Yeah, very clearly. We saw a senior Hamas official praising
Trump's role, while in the same breath stating that Tony
blame would be unwelcome in any post war governance role
of citing his history in Iraq and Afghanistan. If you
no one knows the history in Iraq and Afghanistan. It
was Tony Blair along with US President then US President
(25:13):
George W. Bush that.
Speaker 2 (25:17):
Accepted basically took your childhood from you for your youth, Yeah,
basically strict to do of your youth.
Speaker 3 (25:25):
Yeah, decided to send troops into Iraq and Afghanistan. I
would put the blame on Assama bin Laden for the
Afghanistan portion. We could argue about who's to blame for
the the Iraq portion. We won't argue about who's to
blame for taking my early adulthood away from me. But
(25:47):
that's a different podcast altogether, Doctor Phil. Yeah, it's a
doctor Phil podcast. But this is an early move by
Hamas in the political chess game over who's going to
have influence and legitimacy in a rebuilt GASA.
Speaker 2 (26:06):
It is a lot to process a deal born from
a unique convergence of pressure and politics, a cease fire
held together by a multinational observation team outside the wire,
and future dependent on promises made between enemies who have
no reason to trust one another. Now it is time
to shift our focus to a concept that feels like
it is becoming more tangible every month. The idea that
(26:30):
the major conflicts we see around the world are not
as isolated as they may appear. We often talk about
the war in Ukraine, for instance, in the context of Europe,
but the information we are seeing suggests that it is
the catalyst for something much larger. But first we need
to take a quick ad break, so please stay with us.
(26:50):
We'll be right back. Welcome back, listeners. As we hinted
at before the break, we were discussing how a war
like the one in Ukraine is not a nice let conflict,
but rather a catalyst for a broader strategic alignment among
authoritarian states. So ker, let's start there. When we talk
about this larger picture in this new alignment, who are
(27:13):
the central actors we need to be watching.
Speaker 3 (27:16):
Well, Russia's of course a central actor, but it is
heavily reliant on its partner, or its partners. China is
perhaps the most significant of those partners. That's because Beijing
provides the industrial and technological backbone for the Russian military.
Now we see we are seeing Moscow receive everything from
(27:37):
machine tools as well as special chemicals for its military factories.
They're also receiving advanced satellite data that helps guide those
ballistic missiles that are used to strike Ukraine. It appears
about eighty percent of the critical electronics in Russia's drones
are now actually of Chinese origin.
Speaker 2 (27:57):
This suggests a significant diverse between China's official stance of
neutrality and its material actions.
Speaker 3 (28:05):
Yeah, you are absolutely right. This is a strategic investment
for China. They see the war in Ukraine as a
battlefield that occupies as well as weekends the global West,
as will allow China to advance their own global vision.
Now return for their support, Russia is reportedly sharing advanced
military technology with Beijing. This potentially escalator or accelerates China's
(28:32):
airborne capabilities, some are saying, some analysts say it accelerates
it by a decade or more. So they are learning
from each other.
Speaker 2 (28:43):
And then there's North Korea, which has become a surprisingly
direct participant.
Speaker 3 (28:49):
Yeah, Pyongyang has moved from a pariah state to one
of Moscow's most important military partners. They are now supplying
an estimated forty percent of Russia's artillery needs. And more
than that, as we've talked about on this podcast, they
have sent troops estimates suggests as many as fifteen thousand
to fight on the front lines in Ukraine.
Speaker 2 (29:11):
That is a stunning level of involvement. So what do
they get out of it besides cash?
Speaker 3 (29:18):
Yeah, they get something that I think is invaluable, modern
combat experience. For decades, the North Korean Army has been large,
but it's been untested. Now their soldiers are learning how
to use drones, counter modern systems, and operate in small groups.
They're taking those lessons back to their one point three
million strong army, and in return, Moscow is helping them
(29:41):
build advanced drones similar to the Iranian Shaheed models, and
they've even reportedly provided a nuclear reactor to support their
submarine development. As we talked about in a previous podcast.
Speaker 2 (29:56):
You have also mentioned Iran. They have been a key
player in the drone warfare aspect for.
Speaker 3 (30:02):
A while though right, Yeah, they are the pioneers in
the axis. In many ways, Iran helped Moscow build the
initial factories to scale a drone production, but their influence
is spreading. They've shared the same drone technology with Venezuela.
More on that front later, but they are now the
most advanced drone producer. Venezuela is the most advanced drone
(30:25):
producer in Latin America. It shows how this proliferation works
a capability developed in the Middle East is now appearing
in the Caribbean, posing a very different kind of regional threat.
Speaker 2 (30:37):
So if this axis is learning, adapting, and arming each
other in a coordinated way, how is the United States
and the West responding to this unified threat. It seems
to demand a shift in strategic thinking.
Speaker 3 (30:51):
It does, and we are seeing that happen in real time.
That shift in strategic thinking that you mentioned. The focus
now is moving to areas of the world that were
for a time considered secondary. Now the most prominent example
of this is the US state of Alaska.
Speaker 2 (31:09):
Right, for many people, especially after the Cold War, Alaska
faded from the strategic map. It was seen as remote.
Speaker 3 (31:16):
Like a backwater exactly. Yeah. For thirty years, leaders actually
had to argue to keep federal investment in the military
bases there. Now Alaska is once again a priority. Is
viewed not just as a staging ground to protect American
power outward, but as a potential theater of conflict itself.
Speaker 2 (31:36):
So what makes it so critical now, Well, I think.
Speaker 3 (31:40):
It's the geography of Alaska. Alaska bridges two vital regions,
the Arctic and the Indo Pacific. So in any potential
conflict with China over Taiwan. For example, the forward US
bases in places like Japan and Guam are extremely vulnerable
to an initial wave of attacks. That makes the basis
in Alaska and Hawaii for that matter, the next best
(32:03):
alternative to staging those forces. They would be the launch
points for surviving bombers and jets coming from Guam in Japan.
Speaker 2 (32:13):
Which of course would make those Alaskan bases a primary
target for China.
Speaker 3 (32:18):
Yeah. Absolutely, and the US military is preparing for that
very reality. Recent large scale military exercises held there were
specifically reimagined to simulate a conflict taking place in Alaska.
They practice scenarios like building a backup port near Anchorage
assuming the main one was unavailable or destroyed, and the
goal is to ensure they can both defend the homeland
(32:40):
in Alaska and project power into the Pacific simultaneously.
Speaker 2 (32:45):
Okay, well, we've talked about Russia, China, North Korea, and
briefly Iran. But Iran it's a key part of this
access and that situation seems to be on knife's edge.
So I'm going to get a little bit more deepas
tell about what Iran's part in this is.
Speaker 3 (33:03):
Yeah, I think they are an incredibly volatile component of
this entire picture. So back in June of this year,
as we talked about on this podcast, tension spiked dramatically
after alleged, well not alleged, actual US strikes on Irani
and nuclear facilities. Tehran's response was unequivocal. They reserved all
(33:23):
options to defend themselves. They warned of everlasting consequences.
Speaker 2 (33:29):
So how does a direct flashpoint like that between the
US and Iran ripple through this broader alliance that we
have been discussing.
Speaker 3 (33:38):
Well, I think it raises the stakes for everyone. Iran
is not just a regional power, and as we've established,
Iran is a key technology provider and partner to Russia.
A direct conflict involving Iran that's not going to happen
in a vacuum. It would demand a response from its
partners that could create crises on multiple fronts. Russia could
(34:00):
increased support, China could see it as another opportunity to
bog down the US, and it would have immediate effects
on global energy and shipping, especially with actors like the
Hoofs and Yemen. They are already receiving Russian satellite data
in order to target ships commercial ships within their region.
Speaker 2 (34:22):
So a new conflict in the Middle East could directly
impact the strategic balance in the Pacific and in Europe.
The world is far more interconnected than we might be
comfortable admitting. The lessons learned on one side of the
globe are being prepared for use on the other side
of the globe. Defeating one actor is no longer just
(34:42):
about that single actor. It is about stopping the spread
of battlefield lessons to an entire network of regimes that
see themselves in a shared struggle against the West. For now,
I want to shift to a country you briefly spoke about, Venezuela,
So let us start with Venezuela's recent and appealed to
the United Nations. We saw them calling for an emergency
(35:03):
session of the Security Council, So what was their core complaint?
Speaker 3 (35:08):
Curvin Well, Venezuela formally requested an emergency session of the
UN Security Council, and their primary concern stemmed from recent
US military actions in the waters off of their coast.
Caracas framed these actions as mounting threats from the United States,
particularly after a series of military strikes on boats that
(35:29):
American officials alleged were involved in drug trafficking.
Speaker 2 (35:34):
And they did not just stop at reporting military actions,
did they. They made some very direct accusations against the
Trump administration's intensions.
Speaker 3 (35:44):
Yeah. Absolutely. Venezuela's letter, addressed to Russia's UN ambassador, explicitly
accused the Trump administration of seeking to a top well
President Nicholas Maduro. They argued that these actions were threatening peace,
security and stability regionally, aim and internationally. Even went so
far as to express an expectation of an armed attack
(36:05):
against Venezuela in quote a very short time end quote.
Speaker 2 (36:11):
That is a very strong claim. So how did the
United States respond to such an accusation At the UN meeting?
Speaker 3 (36:18):
The US response was that President Trump resolves to use
the quote full power of America and the full might
of the United States to take on and eradicate these
drug cartels, no matter where they are operating. From end quote,
the US maintained that these cartels are armed, well organized,
and violent, necessitating the use of force in self defense
(36:41):
and in the defense of others. It's important to note
that the US used this as a quote non international
armed conflict end quote. With the cartels, it's consistent with
the right to self defense under the UN Charter.
Speaker 2 (36:57):
So a clear difference and ramily issue. Venezuela sees it
as a threat to sovereignty, and the US frames it
as an anti drug operation. But there's been more going
on behind the scenes, Has there not, specifically some rather
extraordinary diplomatic overtures from Venezuela.
Speaker 3 (37:15):
Yeah, this is where the narrative becomes even more complex.
While publicly defiant, Venezuelan officials with President of Maduro's blessing,
were reportedly engaged in months long discussions with the Trump administration.
They offered a dominant steak in Venezuela's vast oil and
mineral wealth.
Speaker 2 (37:33):
A dominant steak. That sounds like a significant concession. So
what exactly was on the table?
Speaker 3 (37:40):
Yeah, you're right, this was a far reaching offer Tiana.
Under this proposed deal, Maduro's government was prepared to open
up all existing in future oil and gold projects to
American companies. They would also grant preferential contracts to American
businesses and reverse the flow of Venezuelan oil exports from
China to the United States. They'd also significantly reduce its
(38:05):
energy and mining contracts with Chinese, Iranian, and Russian firms.
Speaker 2 (38:10):
Well, I mean that would be a complete reorientation of
their economic allegiances. Given these extensive concessions, why did the
Trump administration ultimately reject the offer and cut off diplomacy.
Speaker 3 (38:23):
Well, despite progress on economic issues, the negotiations reportedly failed
to reach an agreement on President Maduro's political future. Maduro's
foreign minister explicitly stated that Maduro would not negotiate his
exit from leadership. This appears to have been a crucial
sticking point for Venezuela and the United States. There's also
(38:44):
strong opposition within the Trump administration, particularly from figures like
Marco Rubio, who consistently advocated for Maduro's removal and was
skeptical of a diplomatic approach.
Speaker 2 (38:57):
So even with the amensic nomic incentives, the political component
was non negotiable for both sides. We also know that
the US has maintained a strong stance against Maduro's legitimacy,
even offering a significant bounty for his arrest.
Speaker 3 (39:13):
Yeah, you're absolutely right. The US does not recognized Maduro
or his government. They label him a narco terrorist. It's
an accusation Maduro and his government vehemently deny. This fundamental
disagreement on legitimacy certainly complicates any diplomatic resolution.
Speaker 2 (39:31):
It is interesting how this all unfolded just hours before
Maria Karina Machado, a Venezuelan political opposition leader, was awarded
the twenty twenty five Nobel Peace Prize. That must have
added another layer to the geopolitical landscape.
Speaker 3 (39:46):
Yeah. Absolutely, Even as the government was making these desperate
attempts at repproachment with the United States, an opposition leader
was primed for a Nobel Peace Prize. It further highlights
the deeply fractured political situation within Venezuela itself.
Speaker 2 (40:03):
We also heard about an alternative economic proposal being pitched
in Washington by Miss Machado's movement. Can you tell us
a little bit about that.
Speaker 3 (40:13):
Yeah, So, while the US was negotiating with Maduro's envoye,
Miss Machado's movement was presenting its own economic proposal in Washington,
d C. They argued that a democratic transition could unlock
even greater wealth for the US companies in Venezuela, projecting
one point seven trillion dollars in fifteen years. Your economic
(40:34):
adviser emphasized that Maduro's offers of investment would not materialize
without democracy, rule of law, and individual freedoms. It called
his offers quote unquote or quote control maintained through terror
end quote.
Speaker 2 (40:51):
So a clear distinction between the stability offered by an
authoritarian regime versus the stability promised by a democratic tre position,
each with their own appeal to foreign investors. This really
shows the competing visions for Venezuela's future. So, as we
wrap up, Curvin, what do you see as the overall
takeaway from these developments?
Speaker 3 (41:13):
I believe the key takeaway is the multifaceted nature of
this conflict. Neither the US focus on job trafficking nor
Venezuela's claim of a regime change plot fully explains the
entirety of the conflict. The reality is a complex mix
of both. It's fueled by economic desperation, an internal power struggle,
(41:33):
and the geopolitical ambitions of Russia and China. Regarding Venezuela's resources.
Speaker 2 (41:40):
A very insightful overview. As always, Curban, it is a
situation that continues to evolve and we will certainly be
keeping a close eye on it. Is there anything else
you want to discuss? Like the super cool two weeks
that we just said thank you, Yeah, we're back. Did
you miss us? Thank you for being patient while we
(42:00):
took a break from everything and hung out. We finally
got the hack out.
Speaker 3 (42:08):
Yeah, absolutely, it was. It was a fantastic time. We
forgot a lot of what was going on, or forgot
about a lot of what was going on.
Speaker 2 (42:16):
Oh yeah, I'm gonna be completely honest. I did not
keep up with the news at all the entire time
we were I'm not going to say we were off great.
We weren't off great. We were just unplugged pretty much.
Speaker 3 (42:29):
Yes, definitely we were. We were present and available with
each other and the kids, and so that was really nice. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (42:39):
I mean, it would have been cool if I didn't
get sick while you were here and and then sick
after you left, like I was out of a commit
I still don't know what it was, but I blame
it on. There was this kid that like open mouth,
sneezed on me in Amsterdam, and pretty sure he gave
me whatever he had because I sneek. I sneezed so
(43:01):
much with whatever it was, I would sneeze eight to
ten times back to back so hard that I had
tears coming out of my eyes by the time I
was done. But anyways, yeah, we kind of hopped continents.
I me and our friend flew to Germany and we
(43:23):
hung out with Curvin for a week, and then Curvin
came back with us and hung out for a week.
And now we're back to this.
Speaker 3 (43:35):
We're back to this, back to this for now.
Speaker 2 (43:39):
Germany is awesome.
Speaker 3 (43:42):
I wait a lot.
Speaker 2 (43:43):
I had never I had never been there before, and
I loved it so much. It was wonderful. I can
see why my uncle packed up and moved there thirty
years ago. Like I totally get why he moved there.
(44:04):
It was Yeah, it was wonderful. I loved it. Ten
l ten will be back again.
Speaker 3 (44:10):
So yeah, I didn't. I mean, as soon as we
landed and got into DC traffic, I was reminded why
I left. It's true, you saw that in real time.
Speaker 2 (44:22):
Oh my gosh, you were driving crazy. You were so
like you were annoyed at the traffic. And I was
because I was in the back seat whenever you were driving,
because I'm sure I'm the shortest person obviously, so I
sat in the back. But because I couldn't see the road,
it was giving me motion sickness. So I was like
(44:43):
snapping at you for every little batman maneuver that you
were making, and you were like, I hate the traffic.
The traffic is garbage here for sure, worst in the
in the nation, I believe.
Speaker 3 (44:55):
Oh what's that.
Speaker 2 (44:57):
It was voted. I'm pretty sure you're like the top
of the pole of worst area to drive in the
United States of America. So congratulations to us in the DMV's.
Speaker 3 (45:10):
We didn't hop in a vehicle once in Germany because.
Speaker 2 (45:13):
No, we didn't need to.
Speaker 3 (45:16):
And it was great. It was glorious.
Speaker 2 (45:19):
It was it was I mean, don't get me wrong,
I have a ways to go before I'll be able
to navigate that it looked confusing as heck to me.
Speaker 3 (45:30):
No, that's only because you let me take control and
guide us around. If you had to, you would have
figured it out.
Speaker 2 (45:38):
Yeah. I don't know, I don't know. Maybe I don't know,
but yeah, well that's fine with me, that's fine. But also, yeah,
just the food, I know I talked about I don't
know if I talked about the pints of mashed potatoes.
We didn't go get the pints of mashed potatoes this time,
(45:58):
but I did get at the best baked potato. Oh
my life.
Speaker 3 (46:04):
Ruminiscent of your love of cage and potato.
Speaker 2 (46:07):
Oh yeah, I don't know if anyone's been baked potato. Yeah,
I don't know if anyone's been the Cajun potato in Homa, Louisiana.
But oh my gosh, I would go there all the time.
But this potato was I don't even know. It was
just my favorite thing that I've really locked on. And
I miss it and I'm really sad, and I wish
(46:28):
I could have more of the cheesy spotsl that came
with it. I don't know, I don't know. We just
we just had a great time and it. Yeah, I
can't wait to go back. Can't wait to go back.
And yeah, oh yeah. And also, happy seventeenth birthday to
(46:48):
our baby. Our baby is baby seventeen today.
Speaker 3 (46:54):
Yeah, can you believe that? Yes, we are old enough
to have a seventeen year old.
Speaker 2 (46:59):
We have a twenty one year old. Guys, I get.
Speaker 3 (47:02):
That a lot when I tell people you're not old
enough for that.
Speaker 2 (47:06):
Interlike surprise, we just ropped.
Speaker 3 (47:11):
Back to back. This was my I mean, I had
always thought of that, like either there's two ways to
start a family. You either do it really early so
that then you can have fun, you know, in your
forties or fifties, or you wait and you have all
of your fun in your twenties and then the rest
(47:33):
of your life is that's fun.
Speaker 2 (47:35):
It's fun. We had fun even as we had kids, though,
because I mean we traveled. We traveled a lot and
went out a lot and did Oh. I just got
a notification on my laptop that Columbus Days tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (47:51):
It is, and I will be celebrating my.
Speaker 2 (47:54):
People's favorite holiday.
Speaker 3 (47:56):
We love the colody that I work for, which will
remain nameless. And yes, podcast they do not celebrate this day.
Speaker 2 (48:06):
They don't. Congrats to them. That makes me like them
even more.
Speaker 3 (48:11):
Yeah, m they actually give an extra day for the
fourth of July to celebrate even more for America's birthday.
Speaker 2 (48:22):
Did they give you the space of July off?
Speaker 3 (48:25):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (48:27):
Nice? So you really you really do have to go
into work tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (48:30):
No, I'm taking it off. No one's going to be
there tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (48:35):
Oh well, anyways, anyways, Yeah, we had a great time
together and I missed that dude a whole lot. You
can come back anytime, and I want to go back adytime,
and they're oh yeah, let's talk about.
Speaker 3 (48:54):
Bar, okay, And now so we have definitely got an
off of the portion of the oh yeah, yeah, near
onto bar.
Speaker 2 (49:05):
We're onto Bar. That's my new favorite place in the
whole world. It's this bar that doesn't have any clear
hours of operation. It's called bar barra.
Speaker 3 (49:18):
I think, yeah it is. Uh, we just call it.
Speaker 2 (49:22):
Bar because it's bar with exclamation points. And it is
a local joint, not flashy. It reminds us of the
type of bars that we go to in South like
when our hometown's you know, locally run, not very flashy,
but very hometown feel. And I, I don't know, I
(49:48):
just loved the I loved the vibe in there. It
wasn't pretentious. It was basic cocktails and beers in bottles and.
Speaker 3 (50:00):
And yeah, we didn't have a cocktail, did we, No,
we didn't.
Speaker 2 (50:04):
We just we just stuck a beer. But also one
of the bartenders who was wearing a very sparkly outfit.
I think it was required that all the bartenders wear
sparkly skirts and stuff. I don't know, but they were
wearing very sparkly outfits. And she brought us three shots
(50:25):
and I wish I knew what she was saying, because
obviously she was speaking German, and she wrapped off a
bunch of stuff to us, and then she said prost,
and so we took a shot with her. I don't
know what it was.
Speaker 3 (50:37):
But but we survived it.
Speaker 2 (50:41):
We survived it whatever it was, and we were just like,
I don't know, I just felt like we were being
welcomed into the neighborhood kind of thing.
Speaker 3 (50:50):
It was.
Speaker 2 (50:51):
It was really really enjoyable. I mean, don't get me wrong,
I enjoyed every part of the trip. And our friend
Ryan one of the best travel companions we've had. Because
some people have very clear ideas on what they want
to do, and they have like a detailed list of
(51:13):
all the things, and they have the times that they
want to accomplish it, and we didn't have. We just
decided on a whim what we were going to do.
Speaker 3 (51:22):
And it was we decided the day we wake that
moment we woke up, what are we doing today?
Speaker 2 (51:27):
Yeah, basically, and it was nice to have somebody so
chill and relaxed and just going with the flow, which
we appreciate because we are the kind of people that
like to just kind of wander around outside of the
tourist areas and I mean we'll go do things, you know,
(51:48):
But we did. Yeah, we went. We did go to Volksfest.
I mean I didn't participate for long and.
Speaker 3 (51:53):
Volksfest because you and me both sister.
Speaker 2 (51:58):
Yeah, we left. We love Volksfest early. But I don't know,
it was it was just fun. We had a lot
of fun.
Speaker 3 (52:06):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (52:07):
Yeah, I just wanted to talk about Bar because Bar
was Bar was great.
Speaker 3 (52:13):
And as she said, it's opened when it's open.
Speaker 2 (52:15):
It's open when it's over. We don't know when it's
actually open. It was just luck that it was open.
Speaker 3 (52:24):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (52:25):
I don't know. I don't even know if this little
tangent flows all that well.
Speaker 3 (52:30):
But you know, I don't think tangents need to flow.
I just think they are tangents.
Speaker 2 (52:37):
Yeah, yeah, okay, Well anyway, Happy birthday, tour.
Speaker 3 (52:43):
Happy birthday, which I told her Happy birthday at seven am,
which was like one am for her. She was still awake.
She texted me when I woke up and said, it's
my birthday, so you.
Speaker 2 (52:59):
Wish her happy bar birthday? After she texted you or before, yes, which.
Speaker 3 (53:03):
One after she texted me because I had just woke up.
Speaker 2 (53:08):
Your yes came in after I said did you text
her before or after? And then you.
Speaker 3 (53:14):
Were like, yes, yes, I did. Two things can be
true at the same time.
Speaker 2 (53:19):
No, this can't. No, not in this situation. No, But
which one was it?
Speaker 3 (53:25):
It was after she said it.
Speaker 2 (53:27):
Oh, that's cute that she text you. It's my birthday.
We're going to get grab. Yes, my birthday, We're going
to get crab today. Because she wan't nice Rab. She
couldn't think of anything that she wanted. And I was like,
we don't have to stay in this area. We can
go into the district, we can go to Annandell, we
(53:48):
can go to you know, wherever you want to go, Springfield,
whatever you want to do. We don't have to stay here.
And then she was like crab, which I'm I'm pretty sure.
I don't know if I mentioned it already, but she
already cashed in her birthday gift, which was a trip
to New York City to see her favorite play of
(54:08):
all time and her favorite stage actor make his Broadway debut.
And you know, we had like four or five days
in New York City just hanging out one on one time,
saw plays. Every single day. We were there eight food. Yeah,
so she already cashed in her birthday present. But today
we're going to go dinner and celebrate that little nugget,
(54:33):
that little nugget baby. Oh, it's gonna be fun for you, yeah, hey,
it will be nice cause.
Speaker 3 (54:41):
Well for her it'll be fun.
Speaker 2 (54:42):
Yeah. Yeah. And then I'm sure she'll whenever she goes
hang out with her second family later on this week.
Speaker 3 (54:51):
Hang out with him. Yeah those people.
Speaker 2 (54:56):
Yeah, her adopted grandma will probably give her a block
of cheese and come by, nice cheese.
Speaker 3 (55:02):
I love it.
Speaker 2 (55:03):
Seventeen years old and that child still requests cheese for
her birthday. Ever since she could speak, Ever since she
could speak, she asked for cheese for her birthday. So
here we go, just keeping with tradition.
Speaker 3 (55:18):
Yes, all right, all right.
Speaker 2 (55:20):
Let's let's shut up. We've you know, jibber, jabbered, enef
our little heads off what they want, given the people
what they want. But anyway, so yes, anything else, that's
all I have as we wrap it up. Okay, Well,
thank you so much for listening to this week explained.
We hope that you found it both informative and engaging.
(55:41):
If you have any feedback or suggestions, for future episodes.
We'd love to hear from you, so for more in
depth coverage of these stories and more, be sure to
follow us on social media.
Speaker 3 (55:50):
This week explained Tianna, thank you so much, and until
next week, stay safe out there.
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