August 8, 2023 • 51 mins
An early-stage startup will offer unparalleled weather data when it unfolds its orbital sensors.
Captivated by the stars and focused on improving life on Earth, Mithril Technologies founder and CEO, Scarlett Koller, is venturing into weather awareness and storm tracking by launching and commercializing a large space-based sensor. In this episode, we have the privilege of learning how Koller and her co-founder are translating a new technology out of the lab and into a space business.
Aviation, shipping, insurance, and defense industries are each keen to get better clarity on Earth’s complex atmosphere at any given place and time. Where we currently get a partial image once a day, Mithril's technology offers nearly a complete image per second, a significant improvement that could have profound implications for disaster management. Utilizing microwave radiometry and with an incredible ambition to create huge 100-meter-diameter orbiting reflectors, Mithril’s platform would change the way storms are tracked by providing real-time images of the whole internal structure of a storm. Such holistic data is not available today, as some of the best approaches over the decades continues to be the reliance on specialized flight crews to fly instrumented airplanes through a storm… a risky, imperfect strategy that only provides incomplete snapshots of a storm system. Likewise, satellite imagery to-date provides only slivers of a weather pattern.
Though complex and fraught with challenges, the allure of space and its relationship to our planet inspires and drives tough tech trailblazers like Koller. With Mithril, she hopes to make an impact in the field of Earth observation and contribute to the realization of humankind's space dreams.
P.S. Tough Tech Today is now open to patron support, so we have launched a pay-if-you-can membership so you can help us bring Tough Tech Today to more folks!
🧠Relevant Links:
- Episode homepage: https://www.toughtechtoday.com/tracking-weather-from-space/
- Scarlett Koller on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/scarlett-koller-17748682/
- Mithril Technologies homepage: https://www.mithril.space
👏Credit Roll:
- Producers: Jonathan 'JMill' Miller and Forrest Meyen
- Guest: Scarlett Koller
- Hosts: JMill and Forrest Meyen
- Editing: JMill
- Transcript: Alan Yan and JMill
- Blog Author: JMill
- Art Design: JMill
🔖Topic Timecodes:
- timecodes will be available after release.
📖Transcript:
Transcript is viewable here: https://otter.ai/u/93uhbOa_QUnHu3_8HDut2FamviI
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Scarlett Koller (00:00):
Well, you know, I have to tell you, I wasn't
always sure that I was going tobe an engineer. I've always been
really fascinated with space.
And I actually think it's veryhuman. Really there isn't a
culture that we know of thathasn't named the stars that they
could see. I lived a lot of mylife in London, forget about
(00:20):
seeing stars, but when I did seethem, I could not get over it.
I've got some family in ruralOhio. We went camping a couple
of times, you could literallysee by starlight and I don't
think I've ever stopped lookingup since then.
Announcer (00:39):
Welcome to Tough Tech Today with Meyen and Miller.
This is the premier showfeaturing trailblazers, who are
building technologies today tosolve tomorrow's toughest
challenges.
JMill (00:54):
Welcome to Tough Tech Today. We have the honor for
this episode of being joined byMs. Scarlett Koehler.
She is the CEO of MithrilTechnologies. Mithril
Technologies is deploying newon-orbit manufacturing
techniques with the intention ofdeveloping large aperture
(01:15):
antennas to monitor weather andstorms from space. Welcome,
Scarlett. Tell us more. What isthis ambitious goal that you
have with with MithrilTechnologies?
Scarlett Koller (01:32):
Sure, I'm happy to tell you more. And thanks
again very much for having me onyour podcast. I am an avid
listener myself. So really, whatwe're looking at is using this
on-orbit manufacturing techniquethat's been developed in an MIT
lab, the Aerospace Materials andStructures Lab to build large
(01:55):
aperture active antennas andmesh reflectors and large
aperture antennas are reallycritical technologies.
Historically, those have beenpassive and making them active.
And being able to build them onorbit gives you the advantage of
a way broader range of frequencycapabilities. So that's kind of
(02:18):
esoteric, but what it means isthat we can do Earth observation
with this in ways that haven'tbeen possible before, because
you can build something onorbit. And that means you can
overcome the limits of what youcan stuff inside of a payload
fairing. Now, you know, already,we have a lot of deployable
antennas in space, which isgreat, but even then there's
(02:40):
only so much you can do to foldthat up and fit it inside. If we
can overcome those launchlimits, then we can create very
large types of antennas inspace. And something that we're
looking at is a key applicationof this tech is doing microwave
radiometry from geostationaryorbit. And that would have huge
(03:04):
value for Earth observation forreal-time weather awareness and
forecasting. So already, theEarth observation market in the
space industry is becoming veryimportant in terms of climate
resiliency efforts. It'sbecoming very important to
insurers, for instance, who arereally looking to better
(03:26):
understand how they can use allof this data to better assess
risk in different areas, it'sobviously becoming more
important for a lot ofgovernment operations. And we
believe that being able to getbetter data to begin with, is
going to be very, very useful toadvance this. So what we could
(03:49):
do, once we're able to make thiswork and locked into orbit, is
get a whole picture of a stormwith a whole internal structure.
Currently, the best we can doreally is look at the top of
clouds with optic and infraredfrequencies. Or we can get a
(04:09):
picture of the structure of ahurricane in a little tiny
sliver of it from a low Earthorbit microwave instrument. If
we can manage to split thedifference, so to speak, do
microwave radiometry fromgeostationary orbit, which
currently isn't possible withthe antenna technologies that
exist, then we can get the wholepicture. And that could have
huge value (04:32):
we could do we could get much more precise
predictions of for instance,where a storm is going to make
landfall and where it might goon its trajectory. And that
already is incredibly valuable.
I mean, you only have to look atthe kind of destruction that was
wreaked by Hurricane Ian andsome of the folks who were in
(04:53):
the path and chose not toevacuate just to see the
effects.
JMill (05:00):
That sounds incredible in terms of the level of
fidelity that this would unlock.
Help us understand in terms oflike... we know that like every
smartphone comes with with aweather app built in. My
understanding is it's usingthings like NASA satellites, you
know, so like taxpayer-funded,big satellites in space that
(05:20):
somehow take what they see andit gets into something that's
meaningful for me, like thatit's going to rain in 30
minutes. Help us understand sortof the state of the art now. And
then where Mithril's going interms of... this sounds like so
like an origami approach tomaking really big antennas.
Scarlett Koller (05:45):
Right, it is essentially an origami approach.
And the current state of the artis actually the summation of a
lot of different things. So as Imentioned, we already have
satellites, and many of themyou're correct, are publicly
funded, that can do optical andinfrared observations from a
variety of orbital altitudes, somostly Geo and LEO, and then we
(06:10):
also have low Earth orbitinstruments that are in the
microwave frequency, asmentioned, and then not all of
these are publicly funded, or atleast not all of them come right
out of government agencies. Forinstance, Black Sky and Capella
are doing a lot of work to makeEarth observation data
(06:30):
available, and more useful. So Ithink that's very interesting.
It's very exciting. But thisparticular type of technique
just hasn't been used yet. And Ithink it's very exciting,
because there's currently a lotof realization in the industry
that while we have tons and tonsof satellite data about the
(06:54):
Earth. And it's amazing that alot of it hasn't even been used
up until now, there's a lot ofcompanies that are springing up
now that are gathering thisdata, figuring out how to
aggregate it and label it andmake it more useful, and even
stack together multiple flavorsof data, multiple frequencies,
(07:14):
so that we can get moreinteresting, more valuable
pictures of Earth. But, I mean,we are still fundamentally
limited by the data that isgathered in the first place. And
we only have those kinds ofsensors that I described, more
or less. And, you know, you cando a lot of work with that. And
(07:37):
there's great work going on, Idon't wish to disparage it. But
ultimately, you know, garbage ingarbage out—not that this data
is garbage, just that I believeit's incomplete. So I think this
could be a very, veryinteresting time, because we are
seeing a lot of growth in notnecessarily hardware-oriented
(07:58):
space companies that are tryingto gather and aggregate and use
a lot of machine learning toolson these data sets. And then we
come in a little bit furtherupstream of that, we would
hopefully be able to providebetter data to begin with as
input. So I think that could bethat could be an interesting
spot. And given that, you know,you have to train your AI on
(08:19):
datasets, having better datasets to begin with, and not
having to always rely too muchon synthetic data could be
really valuable. And then partof the value of what I've
described, as I said, we couldhave rapid refresh on these
pictures of the storms. Part ofthe limitation of what we have
for any microwave instrument inlow Earth orbit is that anything
(08:40):
in low Earth orbit, you're onlygonna get what's under the
ground track of your satellite.
This is usually a fraction ofthe size of a tropical cyclone.
And you're also only going toget one to two pictures per day,
depending on whether thatLEO-based instrument passes over
that storm, maybe once or twicea day, just because of the
(09:01):
nature of the orbit. If you havesomething in geostationary
orbit, it's always looking atexactly the same part of the
earth. So we could get up to aone hertz refresh rate, one to
two pictures, partial picturesper day of the internal
structure of a storm just isn'treally good enough for the kind
of decision making that peopleneed to do when they're in the
(09:22):
path of disaster. Yeah, a onehertz update that's actually a
lot more useful.
JMill (09:30):
That's wild. Let's put that in perspective
orders of magnitude. So insteadof having maybe one partial
image per day, we'd get a nearlycomplete image per second. Is
that the kind of the range we'relooking at? Wow.
Scarlett Koller (09:46):
It is. And I mean, that said, I do want to
say weather forecasting hasgotten pretty good with a
variety of instruments that areput together and a lot of
forecasting data and a lot ofnew techniques for extrapolating
from that data and predicting.
So don't worry, the weather appon your phone does work. But
(10:06):
especially for storms, this isgoing to be really valuable and
making better predictions, somespaghetti charts for some
hurricanes, you can see itsprawls out, you're like well if
you live anywhere near the Gulfof Mexico, maybe you're gonna
get hit. I think we can dobetter than that.
Forrest Meyen (10:27):
We're getting a lot of afternoon thunderstorms
here in the Rocky Mountains. SoI could see maybe so some better
predictions coming from there.
One thing I wanted to kind ofdive a little deeper for our
audience on is you mentionedthat kind of the enabling
technology is that theseantennas can be kind of orders
of magnitude larger with inspace kind of assembly and
(10:50):
manufacturing. Can youillustrate how much bigger that
is? Like, what are the size ofthese antennas?
Scarlett Koller (10:59):
What we could build that we believe we could
achieve at this point issomewhere 30 to 100 meters in
diameter. And now I'm not sureabout exactly all the diameters
of the reflectors that are inspace right now. I know... I
(11:20):
think you can go up to about 30meters in diameter-ish,
depending on your deployable. Icouldn't speak for every one
that exists. And there aredefinitely some that I'm not
supposed to know about. So we'renot looking at a full order of
magnitude improvement, at leastnot immediately. But it is a
(11:40):
pretty major step up. We can'treally launch anything 100
meters in diameter at this time.
But we can if we, if we build itup there.
Forrest Meyen (11:50):
Where do you where would you say like the
technology is at right now, likehow far out until we have these
30 to 100 meter antennas, out inspace.
Scarlett Koller (12:01):
So in terms of a timeline, a lot of that
depends on my ability to get usenough funding. That's my one
job right now. So what we'relooking at at the moment is a
TRL, of two to three. There issome environmental testing that
(12:23):
is ongoing to see if we cande-risk some of this. So that's
on the ground, in lab,environmental testing. And we're
hoping to get to TRL, four tofive, you know, bench models and
scalable prototypes in the lab.
Obviously, we really do need anon-orbit demonstration here TRL
(12:48):
7, for it to be viable. And weare anticipating probably three
to four, maybe five years fromnow is when we could achieve a
full on-orbit demonstration. Butthat could be that timeline
could be accelerated, dependingon how we're able to secure
(13:08):
different types of funding anddifferent types of expertise to
contribute to it. So three tofour years, hopefully. Possibly
a little bit longer than that.
It's not an immediate thing. Butit is hard tech. This is really
(13:32):
not an a thing we can manageovernight.
JMill (13:38):
I'm curious, with a lot of sort of tough
technologies, at leastinitially, there may have been
support from a governmentagency, or maybe some sponsored
research from, like a corporatepartner or something. With
(13:59):
Mithril Technologies, looks likeit's positioned to be a
for-profit entity. Can you walkus through the rationale for
constructing the organization asa for-profit, rather than, say,
trying to somehow get thetechnology funded and have like
NOAA, the National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration, be
(14:23):
able to put up that bird, so tosay, put up that satellite and
give the data away? Can you talkabout some of the rationale
around that?
Scarlett Koller (14:33):
So I mean, in all fairness, the tech has been
being developed in an MIT laband some of that funding for the
research has come from publicentities already. Really what
this is is a technology transferstartup. And we are anticipating
that this is a dual-usetechnology, which I'll have to
(14:55):
refer your listeners back toyour previous episode on
dual-use tech because I found itvery reconstructive. This is a
dual-use technology (15:01):
we do think there are government
applications, naturally forNOAA, there's also some defense
applications for protectingvarious defense, seaborne and
airborne assets. And thenthere's obviously commercial
applications. And because ofthat, we do anticipate that the
(15:22):
US government is going to be atleast one of our customers, and
they're likely to be an earlystage customer. So, I mean,
sure, I guess there's not reallya whole lot of reasons that you
couldn't just continue todevelop this research in an MIT
lab, and then eventually haveNOAA build their own satellite
(15:48):
with this tech and loft it;however, that's likely to take a
little bit longer. And it'ssometimes very difficult for
this kind of technology to getout of the lab and really be
implemented in the real world.
NOAA does amazing work, but it'svery likely that they would move
a little bit more slowly than asmaller for-profit entity. We
(16:12):
have a very strong motivationnaturally to to actually have
this work. So it's more ofmatter of we can accelerate the
process. And we can get thething out of the lab. But you
know, this doesn't mean thatthere isn't public involvement,
public investment, as mentioned,the government is likely to be
(16:32):
an early customer. And to thatend, this is actually I believe,
the philosophy behind the STTRSBIR programs that are run by
different government agencies,they really want to have access
to this kind of early-stagetech, technology-transfer
startups that are coming out ofmajor research institutions. And
they want to kind of cultivatethis spirit of innovation. And
(16:59):
commercializing new innovativetech that comes out of research
labs, by offering these types ofgrants. And so that's some of
the funding that we are pursuingright now. I think there's a lot
of value in doing that, justbecause I think they they can
get things out of the lab andinto the sky faster.
Forrest Meyen (17:25):
So how did you stumble upon this technology?
Were you part of the lab? Wheredid you meet your collaborators?
Scarlett Koller (17:33):
Right. So actually, I was not part of the
lab. It so happened that thedirector of that lab, he and I
had crossed paths numerous timesso I did my undergrad and MIT
AeroAstro back in the day. Idisappeared to work in space for
five years on the West Coast.
And then I ended up coming backfor the MIT Leaders in Global
(17:54):
Operations Program. So I wasdoing a Master's in AeroAstro,
and then also an MBA at MITSloan. And because of that, and
because I have a bit of a onetrack mind, I ended up in the
leadership of the Sloan SpaceIndustry Club. And in that
capacity, I was helping run theNew Space Age Conference at MIT
(18:15):
two years in a row, I becamekind of reembedded in the MIT
AeroAstro ecosystem. And I knewa lot of people in and out. Now,
the cofounder runs the lab. Hewas not there at the time that I
was an undergrad but weobviously knew a lot of the same
(18:35):
people. And he and I connectedthrough a few of those. We got
to meet a couple of times atthese conferences and varying
department events, andspecifically what he was looking
for, because he knew this techinside and out, this is
developed in his lab, what hewas looking for with someone
with a technical background, butwho was interested in working on
(18:57):
commercializing it, and had someideas of how to run a hard tech
entrepreneurial business. And Iwouldn't necessarily call myself
an expert in that. But I was ina position to learn a lot about
that, especially with my MBA atSloan. So we got to know each
other. And this is kind of anunusual opportunity to really
(19:22):
have someone ask you to joinwith them on that. And there
really isn't a better time to doit than when you're kind of
right out of your grad program.
So I graduated from that inJune. But admittedly, I already
got started on some some thingsfor Mithril before that, and now
(19:44):
I'm pursuing that full-time.
Forrest Meyen (19:47):
And one last thing on the founding story I'm
kind of curious about is why didyou pick the name?
Scarlett Koller (19:54):
So I picked the name because, you know, we're
using an on-orbit techmanufacturing technique called
bend forming. And you can almostthink of this as making a three
dimensional chainlink fence. Youhave a coil, a feedstock that
you bend into a shape. And infact, there's some CNC
(20:17):
development in the lab that hasresulted in a very cute three
dimensional wwireframe bunny,which I absolutely love. And so
I was making a reference to thechainmail vest that Frodo wears
made of mithril, the preciousmetal to the elves in Lord of
(20:39):
the Rings, because I liked thatchainmail reference. I think
it's very evocative of the techitself. And in part, it's
because Thiel-backed startups atthe moment seem to have cornered
the market on fun Tolkien names.
And I figured I had to get inthere before somebody else names
their startup Mithril.
Forrest Meyen (21:03):
Great plan, very strategic.
Scarlett Koller (21:06):
That's the idea.
JMill (21:08):
I like it now.
Scarlett, you and I hadoriginally met, you know, sort
of full disclosure as part ofthe advisory board member for
the Aerospace InnovationCertificate pathway within MIT
AeroAstro. But it's clear yourpassion for space is is
deep-rooted? Can you go back tolike younger Scarlett, and tell
(21:33):
us about what is it that... youmentioned that like the
single-track mind kind of thing,like, what is it that's been
captivating you because this isan incredible journey that
you're on? And really excitingin terms of what you're starting
to build now, sort of the menset manus, sort of bringing the
mind in hand at play to makethis sort of space dream a
(21:57):
reality? What is motivatingthat?
Scarlett Koller (22:02):
Well, you know, I have to tell you, I wasn't
always sure that I was going tobe an engineer. And I didn't
really know very much aboutengineering really, until I got
to MIT for undergrad. But Ithink I've always been really
fascinated with space. And Iactually think it's very human,
really there isn't a culturethat we know of that hasn't
(22:25):
named the stars that they couldsee. And when I was a little kid
growing up, I lived a lot of mylife in London. And at the time
we lived there, the air andlight pollution in the city was
so bad that the night sky wasorange. It was orange. Forget
about seeing stars, they don'texist. But when I did see them,
(22:50):
I could not get over it. I'vegot some family in rural Ohio,
we went camping a couple oftimes, you could literally see
by starlight and I don't thinkI've ever stopped looking up
since then. So I think it's veryfundamental to be very into
space. That said, I know peoplewho are the exception. And for
(23:14):
me, I think it's felt verynatural that I would make my
career in it. It has alwayssounded a little bit like a pipe
dream. But somehow I had a fiveyear career in space before I
came back to school. And I wasable to major in aerospace
engineering. And I, in a lot ofways, got very lucky that I was
(23:36):
able to do that. I'm a UScitizen. And it's been easy for
me to work in that industrycomparatively. And I'm very
excited about it. And part of Ithink why this is built on
itself is that the spaceindustry is very, very
self-selected. Most people arenot in this industry purely
(23:58):
because they have some othergoal or personal gain. Although
your previous guest ChadAnderson did really see a big
opportunity there. Most peopleare in this industry, because
they're giant space dorks, evenfolks from all backgrounds,
non-technical backgrounds, etc,etc. And I like that, I enjoy
(24:19):
that. If you hang around withpeople who work in this
industry, you tend to learn alot more about space. And their
excitement tends to be prettyinfectious. And I think since I
wound up in MIT AeroAstro, atthe age of 18, I think that's
been really compelling to me.
Forrest Meyen (24:39):
You mentioned a couple of times you had a
five-year stint in the aerospaceindustry. You spend time at JPL
and SpaceX. That's quite theresume there. Were there any
kind of lessons you learned fromthose experiences that you think
are helping you as you launchoff in your entrepreneurial
journey?
Scarlett Koller (25:00):
I would definitely say so. I had a very,
very interesting experience atboth companies. And I'm really
grateful that I got theopportunity to work there. I, in
some ways, again, I think partof it has just influenced me to
stay in the industry because I,again, I spent time in this
(25:21):
industry where everyone there isthere because they really want
to be there. So I think just byitself, that was huge in kind of
shaping the rest of my careerdirection and my career
preferences. And then Idefinitely learned an enormous
amount at both companies. Ispend most of my time there as a
systems integration and testengineer in a couple of
(25:43):
different capacities. And, youknow, you really don't learn a
whole lot about testengineering, and integration at
the undergrad level, I got someof that through some of the
project teams that I wasinvolved with, definitely the
MIT Rocket Team was a veryuseful experience for me, but I
(26:07):
really had to learn a lot of thefundamentals behind that on the
job. And I think that was hugelyvaluable in helping me
understand, okay, you know,there's the design end and
that's what you spend a lot oftime studying in engineering
school. And then there's all ofthat meeting reality, which is
integration and test, which is,how do you even develop a
(26:31):
testbed for something that isgoing to operate in conditions
that do not exist on Earth? Howdo you convince yourself that
you've built the right thing,and that you built the thing
right when you have to navigatea fundamentally unrealistic test
condition? And what do you evenneed to test? What can you
(26:53):
reassure yourself is going towork without having to do that?
And I think my five years werereally just an education in how
do you make something thatyou've designed actually work in
this very messy, imperfect, realenvironment. So that was kind of
(27:15):
a key thing that I took out ofthat. And then I do have to say,
I really appreciate, both atSpaceX and JPL, I worked on some
very, very cool, very complexprojects that required hundreds,
if not thousands, of people towork on them for years. And
something that I found justabsolutely fascinating is you've
(27:36):
got a lot of brilliant peopleand no one person understands
the whole system. It's notpossible. It's too complex. And
given that, the corollary tothat is that everybody has a
very different idea of what itis that system does. And I that
really got me thinking a lotabout how is it that all of
(27:59):
these people have a differentidea, and yet, you know, they're
all kind of pulling in the samedirection such that your net
result in force is, you know, inmost cases up, so I that's
really a people problem and alot of systems problems, I
learned, sometimes the hard way,they're are people problems,
(28:19):
their differences andunderstandings and assumptions
and risk stances. Andultimately, I think that's what
led me to pursue the LGOprogram, because it included the
MBA, because it really stretchedme ultimately, in thinking about
how, how people work together,and how that affects technical
projects. We have an idea thattechnical projects are cold and
(28:45):
emotionless. And they areabsolutely not. They are built
by squishy humans, and we buildall of our squishy human
assumptions into them. So yeah,I'm glad that I spent a lot of
time kind of learning aboutmoving things into reality. And
the reality of having humanbeings develop things. That was
(29:10):
really, really valuable to me.
And I think it helps me reallyget the most out of my
education. It's part of thereason that as you mentioned,
JMill, I pursued the AerospaceInnovation Certificate during my
grad program
JMill (29:25):
Something that I think with a lot of... a lot of folks,
Scarlett, you and I mentionedthis.... and actually the
phrasing came through in a priorepisode with Chad Anderson of
the space informed in the spacecurious. Could you talk to us,
so on behalf of our readers,listeners, about that
distinction, and to some of thetrends that you're seeing as a
(29:52):
young accomplished person in thespace, the space of space and
looking to create a business inthere, what are some of those
sort of macro trends that you'reexcited about?
Scarlett Koller (30:02):
Sure. So this came up in your previous
episode, which was veryinteresting. I first heard that
particular turn of phrase fromS. Sita Sonty who is Director of
Aerospace at BCG (might have tocorrect her title). But it came
(30:23):
up in the context of a couple ofyears... there was about a two
year period and maybe 2019, or2021-ish, where there was a lot
of hype about space. And therewas a lot of hype about
investing in space. And it was avery kind of exciting time to be
in the industry. Not that thereare dull times in this industry.
(30:46):
But it was quite interesting tome, because a lot of what I was
seeing was that there were a lotof folks who were falling on the
space-curious side, and less onthe space-informed side, were
very excited about the potentialfor investing in space and new
(31:07):
types of space startups. And insome ways, they were kind of
drinking a certain flavor ofKool Aid. There was kind of a
lot of hype around Elon, notthat there shouldn't be, but not
everyone necessarily had a fullpicture of what it was he was
doing. And there was just kindof a lot of money that got
(31:34):
poured into a variety ofdifferent projects that were,
you know, in some cases, very,very cool. I never want to tell
you that they weren't cool. Butthings cooled down quite a bit,
especially around the time thatkind of a lot of SPACs kind of
folded. Things cooled down quitea bit, because there was sort of
(31:56):
a collective realization thataround the time that people
could could no longer afford toinvest vast sums of money into
unproven space startups, thenthere was a realization of oh,
okay, well, we don't have theliquidity anymore. So maybe we
(32:17):
should really be looking at isthis going to be profitable? Is
this going to deliver value forsomeone on Earth? And very often
the answer was no. There were alot of startups that were kind
of creating products for thespace industry, and it was very
circular. And this is the pointat which a lot of investment in
(32:42):
space tech has kind of droppeddown a little bit. That's kind
of the case everywhere.
Currently, the fundraisingenvironment is a little bit
difficult to navigate, there'sjust not as much money floating
around as there was two yearsago. That said, I don't think
this is necessarily a bad thing.
(33:05):
In part, what I believe thatthis diminished access to funds
represents is a lot of the folkswho got swept up in the hype,
the space-curious, who foundthat when they became a little
bit more informed, there werefewer avenues to profitability.
And now they're less able toafford really investing in
(33:28):
something that isn't going to bethat way, and they have left
that particular sector. And Idon't think that's necessarily a
bad thing. I very much wantpeople to be excited about
space. And I would love forpeople to invest in space. But
I'm glad that this has been anopportunity where some of the
space curious have really becomebetter informed about ways that
(33:51):
space can deliver value, and thespace-informed are now being
very, very judicious about thedecisions that they're making
and the investments that they'remaking. And that's, I think, a
very good thing forentrepreneurs that are coming
out now. Because you almost kindof know, if someone is getting
(34:12):
funding now, then they're veryviable, they have real
potential. So in some ways, Ithink that's a good thing. It
does mean that it's harder forsomeone who isn't necessarily a
technical person, doesn'tnecessarily have a background in
in aerospace engineering, itmight make it harder for them to
(34:34):
kind of break into thatindustry, just because there's
fewer opportunities, but I thinkit's a good time for them to be
really learning about okay, howdoes this industry work and how
can we really deliver value? Igenerally think it's a net
positive and a lot of this ishard tech as well. So the
(35:01):
timelines are going to be longand the investment is going to
not come easy, almostinevitably.
Forrest Meyen (35:09):
What's the toughest part about this
technology and this business?
Scarlett Koller (35:17):
This technology and this business?
Forrest Meyen (35:20):
Two different things, I guess. You can touch
on both.
Scarlett Koller (35:24):
Right. So I think a key technical difficulty
that we're going to face is inGNC, in controls. And so I think
it's going to be very, verydifficult to come up with a
really good system that will beable to control the attitude of
the spacecraft, while you arechanging its center of mass
(35:47):
while you're moving all of thisstuff on orbit and building a
very large antenna relative tothe size of the spacecraft bus.
Forrest Meyen (35:57):
So during the assembly process.
Scarlett Koller (35:59):
During the assembly process. I think the
controls part is going to be areal challenge. Luckily, power
actually is not going to be ahuge challenge. We're not going
to be power-limited in this typeof technology, because it
doesn't require heating, it'snot going to have very large
power requirements. But I thinkcontrols wise, it's going to be
(36:21):
very complex. And I thinkthere's going to need to be a
lot of technical development onthat. There's currently some
derisking, that's ongoing, asmentioned with the environmental
testing, I think that's ahurdle. But it's not necessarily
as much of a technicalchallenge. So understanding how
(36:42):
this behaves in the spaceenvironment is good, I think the
controls are going to be reallydifficult to master. That said,
I do know a few really, reallystellar controls engineers, and
we'll see how that goes. Andthen that development is a
little bit further down theline, probably not for another
(37:03):
year. But it is I think probablygoing to be a big technical
challenge for us. And then interms of the business, I mean,
as I just touched on, we are ina current state of the economy
where there's just a little bitless investment in hard tech,
and actually getting funding asa startup is just a little bit
(37:27):
tougher than it was even acouple of years ago. And this is
also I will freely admit, myfirst time really getting into
raising and really trying topitch something fundamentally
new. So that's a challenge forme personally. And I think
(37:49):
that's going to be a challengebusiness-wise, at least for the
next couple of years. Because wehave to have a pretty solid
roadmap of when is thistechnology going to really
graduate the lab. And, you know,understanding when that's going
to happen is sort of a chickenand egg problem, because it does
(38:10):
also rely on funding. Butfunding is usually contingent on
knowing those timelines. So I'mhaving to juggle a little bit of
understanding and a little bitof conjecture there to really
come up with an idea of how thisis going to go. And, again, this
is part of why I'm glad thatthis is a technology that is of
(38:33):
public interest. And because theentire point of SBIR STTR is so
that the government can affordto take on more risk in terms of
small business innovation andtechnology transfer businesses.
So that's an avenue that isvaluable to us. But navigating
(38:55):
that is challenging as well. Itreally does also require the
same set of skills I'mdeveloping right now.
JMill (39:05):
Something that I'm curious about are your
experiences of putting togetherat the earliest stages, what is
now known as MithrilTechnologies, and up to the
present of, say, pursuingfunding and those kinds of
conversations because a lot offolks have never tried to create
(39:30):
a company or fundraise for it.
They haven't been through, theyhaven't had the opportunity to
or they've been averse to doingthat. So can you take our
audience sort of with youthrough what that experience has
been like, the kinds of peoplethat you've been engaging with,
what's worked, maybe what hasn'tworked yet, because I think that
could be a really interestingperspective, since you're again
(39:53):
at the earlier stages and comingout of an academic environment
that's pretty conducive tosupporting that.
Scarlett Koller (40:01):
It is very conducive to supporting that.
And I mean, I'm not yet in aposition to say that something
definitively hasn't worked, Ican only say it hasn't worked
yet. I have been very, verylucky in the sense that I
currently am in a position whereI can pursue this full time. And
(40:23):
I know other people in similarprograms who are not in a
position to take a massive riskwith their career at this
particular juncture. And I'vebeen lucky in that I am, and
it's a good time for me to dosomething that is possibly a
(40:43):
little bit less lucrative for atleast a little while. And if it
works out, then I fully expectit to be lucrative. But if it
doesn't, I do still think andthis is just a kind of general
comforting thing toentrepreneurs, it is still a
(41:06):
value add, because you do stillhave this experience of standing
up something from scratch, andyou have a lot more
understanding of what goes intothat. And I mean, I've been
learning at a very, veryaccelerated rate, comparing that
to previous jobs. I think I'veabsorbed a lot more information
(41:30):
and been able to make a lot moreconnections a lot faster, in
this particular role in standingup a new company, than I have
when I've been joining anexisting organization. And I am
very excited about that fact. Soif you are considering
entrepreneurship, that is huge,and you do not lose that even if
(41:54):
things do not go your way. Youcan for the rest of your life,
say, you know, I actually workedon standing up a new
organization to do somethingtechnically difficult. And, you
know, my experience is now goingto inform everything else. So I
do have to keep reassuringmyself with that. Learning a
(42:18):
lot. This is a value add for mealmost no matter what. And no,
not everyone's going to be ableto do that and unfortunately,
that's the reality of life. Iknow other people who would have
liked to and can't for a varietyof reasons, other commitments,
family things and so on. I'vebeen lucky that I'm in a
(42:38):
position where I can do that.
And yet, but it's still, youknow, incredibly challenging and
probably maybe in some waysdisorienting, at least that's
been my experience where highuncertainty and it's... you
know, sometimes it can be like,well, there's no boss, which is
(42:58):
often viewed as a good thing.
But it is also there might notbe as much direction and that
one really needs to manage thatuncertainty and start to figure
out well, what is the next stepABC, and what to do when that
plan gets messed up, and how tohow to be resilient through
that.
(43:20):
Yeah, it's not easy. There isobviously a lot less
accountability. Until you reallybuild out your organization and
have a structure, then, youknow, you yourself as a founder
have less accountability. For mypart, I think, a few ways that
(43:41):
I've been overcoming thisbecause sometimes I am a little
bit paralyzed by just not reallyknowing if something that I'm
doing is the right thing.
Something that I do keepreminding myself is that almost
anything that I can do in termsof reaching out to folks who are
working in relevant fields, onrelevant projects, who are
(44:04):
people of contact for differentgovernment solicitations, anyone
that I meet. At the bareminimum, I will learn that that
avenue is not one that is ofvalue for me to pursue. That's
the bare minimum that couldhappen. There's almost no
(44:26):
downside to just reaching outand asking people how does this
work? And what are yourinsights? And I think again,
there's huge value in the spaceindustry being very
self-selecting, because it meansthat people very often have very
strong networks. I've been ableto leverage my own and I've
almost invariably hit intosituations where someone will
(44:50):
tell me, you know, I don't knowabout this, but I know five
other people who do. Soleveraging your network, almost
any contact you can make isgoing to be a net positive,
because at the bare minimum,you're going to find out, you
know, this is not a relevantpath of inquiry. So, you know, I
keep reminding myself, itdoesn't matter if not everything
(45:12):
that you learn, and that youadvance your work on, not every
contact is going to be apotential customer, it doesn't
matter if you if this nextperson you talk to isn't. It
matters that you've tried andthat you keep expanding that
because that is the only way youfigure out where your business
has the opportunities. And thenyou know, I am nervous about
(45:40):
this. I very much am. This isnot an easy thing to do. And I
do have to do moreself-promotion than I'm used to.
But, you know, I've beensomewhat heartened by meeting a
lot of other people who are in asimilar setting, a lot of folks
(46:02):
who are who have come out ofthis MBA program with me who are
pursuing all sorts ofentrepreneurial ventures. And I
think it's very advisable...
even you know, you don't have tobe in a grad program to do this.
But if you if you want to pursueany kind of entrepreneurship
(46:22):
journey, definitely try to meetother people who are engaged in
something similar, who aretrying to get a new piece of
technology off the ground, orchange the way that people, for
instance, do 401k investing, Iknow someone who is working on
that right now. Because theytend to be incredibly
optimistic, obviously, or theywouldn't be doing what they're
(46:45):
doing. And like the passion forspace, that kind of energy is
very infectious. I've found thatreally valuable because
sometimes I struggle and I'mvery nervous about what it is
that I'm doing. And I found thatit's very confidence building to
speak with some of my friendsthat I know are working on their
(47:09):
own ventures in variouscapacities, and really absorb
how excited they are about whatthey're doing, and about their
interest in learning about whatI'm working on. They have
confidence that I will succeed,which is stunning to me, but I
have a lot of confidence thatthey will because I consider
(47:32):
them to be brilliant people. Sothat's been very, very valuable
to me. Just having that networkof people who are in a similar
stage and doing similar thingsin their careers.
Forrest Meyen (47:45):
Scarlett, I have a lot of confidence that you're
going to succeed. So I've seenyou do it time and time again.
At this point in the episode,we'd like to give you an
opportunity to kind of make apitch to our audience. If you're
looking to hire, looking forcollaborations, if you have a
(48:07):
some sort of ask, feel free toto reach out and let our
listeners know what you'd liketo let them know.
JMill (48:16):
Even if you need to tell your friends that you're
heads down building stuff, andsorry that you're not responding
to text messages and hangouts.
Scarlett Koller (48:28):
Well, in all fairness, I'm lucky a lot of my
friends are in the same industryor otherwise involved in
ventures. So it is actually nottoo bad... sometimes I've been
leveraging that. But if I had acall to action right now, it
would be mostly aboutinformation and understanding
(48:48):
because we are really trying toget a much clearer picture here
of the scope of our opportunity.
If you are currently working inany kind of weather awareness,
or in any kind of large apertureantenna tech and its various
applications, whether in thegovernment or in the commercial
(49:08):
sector, I would be very, veryinterested in hearing from you.
Especially if you think you havea new commercial application of
this type of tech. We're alreadytalking to folks in insurance
and possibly in aviation anddefinitely in defense on uses
(49:29):
for our technology. And if youhave any thoughts on that,
anyone that you think would beinteresting for us to talk to,
then, you know, please reachout. I would be so interested to
meet and speak with you. So Ican be reached at Scarlett—and
Scarlett with two T's, atmithril dot space. So that would
(49:53):
be where where to reach me forthat and I really would love to
get to know a little bit moreabout anything that anyone knows
that they think could be useful.
This is a learning experiencefor me and for my co-founder so
(50:16):
a lot of fun. I would definitelyappreciate more learning
opportunities.
Forrest Meyen (50:20):
Alright everyone send in those messages.
Scarlett Koller (50:24):
Yeah, thank you. It's been really fun
talking to both of you. And I'mvery, very flattered that you
invited me to be on the podcast.
I've already listened to thefirst part of the three-part
series and I'm very excited tohear the third one as well.
Forrest Meyen (50:41):
Thank you very much for joining us. We really
appreciate having you on thepodcast today.
Scarlett Koller (50:47):
I'm Scarlett Koehler, the CEO of Mithril
Technologies. Stay tough!
JMill (50:56):
Though complex and fraught with challenges, the
allure of space and itsrelationship to our planet
inspires and drives tough techtrailblazers, like Miss Scarlett
Koehler. To finish ourthree-part series on space, our
next guest is Preston Dunlap,the first chief technology
officer and chief architect ofthe US Space Force and Air Force
(51:20):
and founder of ArkenstoneVentures. Until next time, stay
tough.
Well, you know, I have to tell you, I wasn't
always sure that I was going tobe an engineer. I've always been
really fascinated with space.
And I actually think it's veryhuman. Really there isn't a
culture that we know of thathasn't named the stars that they
could see. I lived a lot of mylife in London, forget about
(00:20):
seeing stars, but when I did seethem, I could not get over it.
I've got some family in ruralOhio. We went camping a couple
of times, you could literallysee by starlight and I don't
think I've ever stopped lookingup since then.
Announcer (00:39):
Welcome to Tough Tech Today with Meyen and Miller.
This is the premier showfeaturing trailblazers, who are
building technologies today tosolve tomorrow's toughest
challenges.
JMill (00:54):
Welcome to Tough Tech Today. We have the honor for
this episode of being joined byMs. Scarlett Koehler.
She is the CEO of MithrilTechnologies. Mithril
Technologies is deploying newon-orbit manufacturing
techniques with the intention ofdeveloping large aperture
(01:15):
antennas to monitor weather andstorms from space. Welcome,
Scarlett. Tell us more. What isthis ambitious goal that you
have with with MithrilTechnologies?
Scarlett Koller (01:32):
Sure, I'm happy to tell you more. And thanks
again very much for having me onyour podcast. I am an avid
listener myself. So really, whatwe're looking at is using this
on-orbit manufacturing techniquethat's been developed in an MIT
lab, the Aerospace Materials andStructures Lab to build large
(01:55):
aperture active antennas andmesh reflectors and large
aperture antennas are reallycritical technologies.
Historically, those have beenpassive and making them active.
And being able to build them onorbit gives you the advantage of
a way broader range of frequencycapabilities. So that's kind of
(02:18):
esoteric, but what it means isthat we can do Earth observation
with this in ways that haven'tbeen possible before, because
you can build something onorbit. And that means you can
overcome the limits of what youcan stuff inside of a payload
fairing. Now, you know, already,we have a lot of deployable
antennas in space, which isgreat, but even then there's
(02:40):
only so much you can do to foldthat up and fit it inside. If we
can overcome those launchlimits, then we can create very
large types of antennas inspace. And something that we're
looking at is a key applicationof this tech is doing microwave
radiometry from geostationaryorbit. And that would have huge
(03:04):
value for Earth observation forreal-time weather awareness and
forecasting. So already, theEarth observation market in the
space industry is becoming veryimportant in terms of climate
resiliency efforts. It'sbecoming very important to
insurers, for instance, who arereally looking to better
(03:26):
understand how they can use allof this data to better assess
risk in different areas, it'sobviously becoming more
important for a lot ofgovernment operations. And we
believe that being able to getbetter data to begin with, is
going to be very, very useful toadvance this. So what we could
(03:49):
do, once we're able to make thiswork and locked into orbit, is
get a whole picture of a stormwith a whole internal structure.
Currently, the best we can doreally is look at the top of
clouds with optic and infraredfrequencies. Or we can get a
(04:09):
picture of the structure of ahurricane in a little tiny
sliver of it from a low Earthorbit microwave instrument. If
we can manage to split thedifference, so to speak, do
microwave radiometry fromgeostationary orbit, which
currently isn't possible withthe antenna technologies that
exist, then we can get the wholepicture. And that could have
huge value (04:32):
we could do we could get much more precise
predictions of for instance,where a storm is going to make
landfall and where it might goon its trajectory. And that
already is incredibly valuable.
I mean, you only have to look atthe kind of destruction that was
wreaked by Hurricane Ian andsome of the folks who were in
(04:53):
the path and chose not toevacuate just to see the
effects.
JMill (05:00):
That sounds incredible in terms of the level of
fidelity that this would unlock.
Help us understand in terms oflike... we know that like every
smartphone comes with with aweather app built in. My
understanding is it's usingthings like NASA satellites, you
know, so like taxpayer-funded,big satellites in space that
(05:20):
somehow take what they see andit gets into something that's
meaningful for me, like thatit's going to rain in 30
minutes. Help us understand sortof the state of the art now. And
then where Mithril's going interms of... this sounds like so
like an origami approach tomaking really big antennas.
Scarlett Koller (05:45):
Right, it is essentially an origami approach.
And the current state of the artis actually the summation of a
lot of different things. So as Imentioned, we already have
satellites, and many of themyou're correct, are publicly
funded, that can do optical andinfrared observations from a
variety of orbital altitudes, somostly Geo and LEO, and then we
(06:10):
also have low Earth orbitinstruments that are in the
microwave frequency, asmentioned, and then not all of
these are publicly funded, or atleast not all of them come right
out of government agencies. Forinstance, Black Sky and Capella
are doing a lot of work to makeEarth observation data
(06:30):
available, and more useful. So Ithink that's very interesting.
It's very exciting. But thisparticular type of technique
just hasn't been used yet. And Ithink it's very exciting,
because there's currently a lotof realization in the industry
that while we have tons and tonsof satellite data about the
(06:54):
Earth. And it's amazing that alot of it hasn't even been used
up until now, there's a lot ofcompanies that are springing up
now that are gathering thisdata, figuring out how to
aggregate it and label it andmake it more useful, and even
stack together multiple flavorsof data, multiple frequencies,
(07:14):
so that we can get moreinteresting, more valuable
pictures of Earth. But, I mean,we are still fundamentally
limited by the data that isgathered in the first place. And
we only have those kinds ofsensors that I described, more
or less. And, you know, you cando a lot of work with that. And
(07:37):
there's great work going on, Idon't wish to disparage it. But
ultimately, you know, garbage ingarbage out—not that this data
is garbage, just that I believeit's incomplete. So I think this
could be a very, veryinteresting time, because we are
seeing a lot of growth in notnecessarily hardware-oriented
(07:58):
space companies that are tryingto gather and aggregate and use
a lot of machine learning toolson these data sets. And then we
come in a little bit furtherupstream of that, we would
hopefully be able to providebetter data to begin with as
input. So I think that could bethat could be an interesting
spot. And given that, you know,you have to train your AI on
(08:19):
datasets, having better datasets to begin with, and not
having to always rely too muchon synthetic data could be
really valuable. And then partof the value of what I've
described, as I said, we couldhave rapid refresh on these
pictures of the storms. Part ofthe limitation of what we have
for any microwave instrument inlow Earth orbit is that anything
(08:40):
in low Earth orbit, you're onlygonna get what's under the
ground track of your satellite.
This is usually a fraction ofthe size of a tropical cyclone.
And you're also only going toget one to two pictures per day,
depending on whether thatLEO-based instrument passes over
that storm, maybe once or twicea day, just because of the
(09:01):
nature of the orbit. If you havesomething in geostationary
orbit, it's always looking atexactly the same part of the
earth. So we could get up to aone hertz refresh rate, one to
two pictures, partial picturesper day of the internal
structure of a storm just isn'treally good enough for the kind
of decision making that peopleneed to do when they're in the
(09:22):
path of disaster. Yeah, a onehertz update that's actually a
lot more useful.
JMill (09:30):
That's wild. Let's put that in perspective
orders of magnitude. So insteadof having maybe one partial
image per day, we'd get a nearlycomplete image per second. Is
that the kind of the range we'relooking at? Wow.
Scarlett Koller (09:46):
It is. And I mean, that said, I do want to
say weather forecasting hasgotten pretty good with a
variety of instruments that areput together and a lot of
forecasting data and a lot ofnew techniques for extrapolating
from that data and predicting.
So don't worry, the weather appon your phone does work. But
(10:06):
especially for storms, this isgoing to be really valuable and
making better predictions, somespaghetti charts for some
hurricanes, you can see itsprawls out, you're like well if
you live anywhere near the Gulfof Mexico, maybe you're gonna
get hit. I think we can dobetter than that.
Forrest Meyen (10:27):
We're getting a lot of afternoon thunderstorms
here in the Rocky Mountains. SoI could see maybe so some better
predictions coming from there.
One thing I wanted to kind ofdive a little deeper for our
audience on is you mentionedthat kind of the enabling
technology is that theseantennas can be kind of orders
of magnitude larger with inspace kind of assembly and
(10:50):
manufacturing. Can youillustrate how much bigger that
is? Like, what are the size ofthese antennas?
Scarlett Koller (10:59):
What we could build that we believe we could
achieve at this point issomewhere 30 to 100 meters in
diameter. And now I'm not sureabout exactly all the diameters
of the reflectors that are inspace right now. I know... I
(11:20):
think you can go up to about 30meters in diameter-ish,
depending on your deployable. Icouldn't speak for every one
that exists. And there aredefinitely some that I'm not
supposed to know about. So we'renot looking at a full order of
magnitude improvement, at leastnot immediately. But it is a
(11:40):
pretty major step up. We can'treally launch anything 100
meters in diameter at this time.
But we can if we, if we build itup there.
Forrest Meyen (11:50):
Where do you where would you say like the
technology is at right now, likehow far out until we have these
30 to 100 meter antennas, out inspace.
Scarlett Koller (12:01):
So in terms of a timeline, a lot of that
depends on my ability to get usenough funding. That's my one
job right now. So what we'relooking at at the moment is a
TRL, of two to three. There issome environmental testing that
(12:23):
is ongoing to see if we cande-risk some of this. So that's
on the ground, in lab,environmental testing. And we're
hoping to get to TRL, four tofive, you know, bench models and
scalable prototypes in the lab.
Obviously, we really do need anon-orbit demonstration here TRL
(12:48):
7, for it to be viable. And weare anticipating probably three
to four, maybe five years fromnow is when we could achieve a
full on-orbit demonstration. Butthat could be that timeline
could be accelerated, dependingon how we're able to secure
(13:08):
different types of funding anddifferent types of expertise to
contribute to it. So three tofour years, hopefully. Possibly
a little bit longer than that.
It's not an immediate thing. Butit is hard tech. This is really
(13:32):
not an a thing we can manageovernight.
JMill (13:38):
I'm curious, with a lot of sort of tough
technologies, at leastinitially, there may have been
support from a governmentagency, or maybe some sponsored
research from, like a corporatepartner or something. With
(13:59):
Mithril Technologies, looks likeit's positioned to be a
for-profit entity. Can you walkus through the rationale for
constructing the organization asa for-profit, rather than, say,
trying to somehow get thetechnology funded and have like
NOAA, the National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration, be
(14:23):
able to put up that bird, so tosay, put up that satellite and
give the data away? Can you talkabout some of the rationale
around that?
Scarlett Koller (14:33):
So I mean, in all fairness, the tech has been
being developed in an MIT laband some of that funding for the
research has come from publicentities already. Really what
this is is a technology transferstartup. And we are anticipating
that this is a dual-usetechnology, which I'll have to
(14:55):
refer your listeners back toyour previous episode on
dual-use tech because I found itvery reconstructive. This is a
dual-use technology (15:01):
we do think there are government
applications, naturally forNOAA, there's also some defense
applications for protectingvarious defense, seaborne and
airborne assets. And thenthere's obviously commercial
applications. And because ofthat, we do anticipate that the
(15:22):
US government is going to be atleast one of our customers, and
they're likely to be an earlystage customer. So, I mean,
sure, I guess there's not reallya whole lot of reasons that you
couldn't just continue todevelop this research in an MIT
lab, and then eventually haveNOAA build their own satellite
(15:48):
with this tech and loft it;however, that's likely to take a
little bit longer. And it'ssometimes very difficult for
this kind of technology to getout of the lab and really be
implemented in the real world.
NOAA does amazing work, but it'svery likely that they would move
a little bit more slowly than asmaller for-profit entity. We
(16:12):
have a very strong motivationnaturally to to actually have
this work. So it's more ofmatter of we can accelerate the
process. And we can get thething out of the lab. But you
know, this doesn't mean thatthere isn't public involvement,
public investment, as mentioned,the government is likely to be
(16:32):
an early customer. And to thatend, this is actually I believe,
the philosophy behind the STTRSBIR programs that are run by
different government agencies,they really want to have access
to this kind of early-stagetech, technology-transfer
startups that are coming out ofmajor research institutions. And
they want to kind of cultivatethis spirit of innovation. And
(16:59):
commercializing new innovativetech that comes out of research
labs, by offering these types ofgrants. And so that's some of
the funding that we are pursuingright now. I think there's a lot
of value in doing that, justbecause I think they they can
get things out of the lab andinto the sky faster.
Forrest Meyen (17:25):
So how did you stumble upon this technology?
Were you part of the lab? Wheredid you meet your collaborators?
Scarlett Koller (17:33):
Right. So actually, I was not part of the
lab. It so happened that thedirector of that lab, he and I
had crossed paths numerous timesso I did my undergrad and MIT
AeroAstro back in the day. Idisappeared to work in space for
five years on the West Coast.
And then I ended up coming backfor the MIT Leaders in Global
(17:54):
Operations Program. So I wasdoing a Master's in AeroAstro,
and then also an MBA at MITSloan. And because of that, and
because I have a bit of a onetrack mind, I ended up in the
leadership of the Sloan SpaceIndustry Club. And in that
capacity, I was helping run theNew Space Age Conference at MIT
(18:15):
two years in a row, I becamekind of reembedded in the MIT
AeroAstro ecosystem. And I knewa lot of people in and out. Now,
the cofounder runs the lab. Hewas not there at the time that I
was an undergrad but weobviously knew a lot of the same
(18:35):
people. And he and I connectedthrough a few of those. We got
to meet a couple of times atthese conferences and varying
department events, andspecifically what he was looking
for, because he knew this techinside and out, this is
developed in his lab, what hewas looking for with someone
with a technical background, butwho was interested in working on
(18:57):
commercializing it, and had someideas of how to run a hard tech
entrepreneurial business. And Iwouldn't necessarily call myself
an expert in that. But I was ina position to learn a lot about
that, especially with my MBA atSloan. So we got to know each
other. And this is kind of anunusual opportunity to really
(19:22):
have someone ask you to joinwith them on that. And there
really isn't a better time to doit than when you're kind of
right out of your grad program.
So I graduated from that inJune. But admittedly, I already
got started on some some thingsfor Mithril before that, and now
(19:44):
I'm pursuing that full-time.
Forrest Meyen (19:47):
And one last thing on the founding story I'm
kind of curious about is why didyou pick the name?
Scarlett Koller (19:54):
So I picked the name because, you know, we're
using an on-orbit techmanufacturing technique called
bend forming. And you can almostthink of this as making a three
dimensional chainlink fence. Youhave a coil, a feedstock that
you bend into a shape. And infact, there's some CNC
(20:17):
development in the lab that hasresulted in a very cute three
dimensional wwireframe bunny,which I absolutely love. And so
I was making a reference to thechainmail vest that Frodo wears
made of mithril, the preciousmetal to the elves in Lord of
(20:39):
the Rings, because I liked thatchainmail reference. I think
it's very evocative of the techitself. And in part, it's
because Thiel-backed startups atthe moment seem to have cornered
the market on fun Tolkien names.
And I figured I had to get inthere before somebody else names
their startup Mithril.
Forrest Meyen (21:03):
Great plan, very strategic.
Scarlett Koller (21:06):
That's the idea.
JMill (21:08):
I like it now.
Scarlett, you and I hadoriginally met, you know, sort
of full disclosure as part ofthe advisory board member for
the Aerospace InnovationCertificate pathway within MIT
AeroAstro. But it's clear yourpassion for space is is
deep-rooted? Can you go back tolike younger Scarlett, and tell
(21:33):
us about what is it that... youmentioned that like the
single-track mind kind of thing,like, what is it that's been
captivating you because this isan incredible journey that
you're on? And really excitingin terms of what you're starting
to build now, sort of the menset manus, sort of bringing the
mind in hand at play to makethis sort of space dream a
(21:57):
reality? What is motivatingthat?
Scarlett Koller (22:02):
Well, you know, I have to tell you, I wasn't
always sure that I was going tobe an engineer. And I didn't
really know very much aboutengineering really, until I got
to MIT for undergrad. But Ithink I've always been really
fascinated with space. And Iactually think it's very human,
really there isn't a culturethat we know of that hasn't
(22:25):
named the stars that they couldsee. And when I was a little kid
growing up, I lived a lot of mylife in London. And at the time
we lived there, the air andlight pollution in the city was
so bad that the night sky wasorange. It was orange. Forget
about seeing stars, they don'texist. But when I did see them,
(22:50):
I could not get over it. I'vegot some family in rural Ohio,
we went camping a couple oftimes, you could literally see
by starlight and I don't thinkI've ever stopped looking up
since then. So I think it's veryfundamental to be very into
space. That said, I know peoplewho are the exception. And for
(23:14):
me, I think it's felt verynatural that I would make my
career in it. It has alwayssounded a little bit like a pipe
dream. But somehow I had a fiveyear career in space before I
came back to school. And I wasable to major in aerospace
engineering. And I, in a lot ofways, got very lucky that I was
(23:36):
able to do that. I'm a UScitizen. And it's been easy for
me to work in that industrycomparatively. And I'm very
excited about it. And part of Ithink why this is built on
itself is that the spaceindustry is very, very
self-selected. Most people arenot in this industry purely
(23:58):
because they have some othergoal or personal gain. Although
your previous guest ChadAnderson did really see a big
opportunity there. Most peopleare in this industry, because
they're giant space dorks, evenfolks from all backgrounds,
non-technical backgrounds, etc,etc. And I like that, I enjoy
(24:19):
that. If you hang around withpeople who work in this
industry, you tend to learn alot more about space. And their
excitement tends to be prettyinfectious. And I think since I
wound up in MIT AeroAstro, atthe age of 18, I think that's
been really compelling to me.
Forrest Meyen (24:39):
You mentioned a couple of times you had a
five-year stint in the aerospaceindustry. You spend time at JPL
and SpaceX. That's quite theresume there. Were there any
kind of lessons you learned fromthose experiences that you think
are helping you as you launchoff in your entrepreneurial
journey?
Scarlett Koller (25:00):
I would definitely say so. I had a very,
very interesting experience atboth companies. And I'm really
grateful that I got theopportunity to work there. I, in
some ways, again, I think partof it has just influenced me to
stay in the industry because I,again, I spent time in this
(25:21):
industry where everyone there isthere because they really want
to be there. So I think just byitself, that was huge in kind of
shaping the rest of my careerdirection and my career
preferences. And then Idefinitely learned an enormous
amount at both companies. Ispend most of my time there as a
systems integration and testengineer in a couple of
(25:43):
different capacities. And, youknow, you really don't learn a
whole lot about testengineering, and integration at
the undergrad level, I got someof that through some of the
project teams that I wasinvolved with, definitely the
MIT Rocket Team was a veryuseful experience for me, but I
(26:07):
really had to learn a lot of thefundamentals behind that on the
job. And I think that was hugelyvaluable in helping me
understand, okay, you know,there's the design end and
that's what you spend a lot oftime studying in engineering
school. And then there's all ofthat meeting reality, which is
integration and test, which is,how do you even develop a
(26:31):
testbed for something that isgoing to operate in conditions
that do not exist on Earth? Howdo you convince yourself that
you've built the right thing,and that you built the thing
right when you have to navigatea fundamentally unrealistic test
condition? And what do you evenneed to test? What can you
(26:53):
reassure yourself is going towork without having to do that?
And I think my five years werereally just an education in how
do you make something thatyou've designed actually work in
this very messy, imperfect, realenvironment. So that was kind of
(27:15):
a key thing that I took out ofthat. And then I do have to say,
I really appreciate, both atSpaceX and JPL, I worked on some
very, very cool, very complexprojects that required hundreds,
if not thousands, of people towork on them for years. And
something that I found justabsolutely fascinating is you've
(27:36):
got a lot of brilliant peopleand no one person understands
the whole system. It's notpossible. It's too complex. And
given that, the corollary tothat is that everybody has a
very different idea of what itis that system does. And I that
really got me thinking a lotabout how is it that all of
(27:59):
these people have a differentidea, and yet, you know, they're
all kind of pulling in the samedirection such that your net
result in force is, you know, inmost cases up, so I that's
really a people problem and alot of systems problems, I
learned, sometimes the hard way,they're are people problems,
(28:19):
their differences andunderstandings and assumptions
and risk stances. Andultimately, I think that's what
led me to pursue the LGOprogram, because it included the
MBA, because it really stretchedme ultimately, in thinking about
how, how people work together,and how that affects technical
projects. We have an idea thattechnical projects are cold and
(28:45):
emotionless. And they areabsolutely not. They are built
by squishy humans, and we buildall of our squishy human
assumptions into them. So yeah,I'm glad that I spent a lot of
time kind of learning aboutmoving things into reality. And
the reality of having humanbeings develop things. That was
(29:10):
really, really valuable to me.
And I think it helps me reallyget the most out of my
education. It's part of thereason that as you mentioned,
JMill, I pursued the AerospaceInnovation Certificate during my
grad program
JMill (29:25):
Something that I think with a lot of... a lot of folks,
Scarlett, you and I mentionedthis.... and actually the
phrasing came through in a priorepisode with Chad Anderson of
the space informed in the spacecurious. Could you talk to us,
so on behalf of our readers,listeners, about that
distinction, and to some of thetrends that you're seeing as a
(29:52):
young accomplished person in thespace, the space of space and
looking to create a business inthere, what are some of those
sort of macro trends that you'reexcited about?
Scarlett Koller (30:02):
Sure. So this came up in your previous
episode, which was veryinteresting. I first heard that
particular turn of phrase fromS. Sita Sonty who is Director of
Aerospace at BCG (might have tocorrect her title). But it came
(30:23):
up in the context of a couple ofyears... there was about a two
year period and maybe 2019, or2021-ish, where there was a lot
of hype about space. And therewas a lot of hype about
investing in space. And it was avery kind of exciting time to be
in the industry. Not that thereare dull times in this industry.
(30:46):
But it was quite interesting tome, because a lot of what I was
seeing was that there were a lotof folks who were falling on the
space-curious side, and less onthe space-informed side, were
very excited about the potentialfor investing in space and new
(31:07):
types of space startups. And insome ways, they were kind of
drinking a certain flavor ofKool Aid. There was kind of a
lot of hype around Elon, notthat there shouldn't be, but not
everyone necessarily had a fullpicture of what it was he was
doing. And there was just kindof a lot of money that got
(31:34):
poured into a variety ofdifferent projects that were,
you know, in some cases, very,very cool. I never want to tell
you that they weren't cool. Butthings cooled down quite a bit,
especially around the time thatkind of a lot of SPACs kind of
folded. Things cooled down quitea bit, because there was sort of
(31:56):
a collective realization thataround the time that people
could could no longer afford toinvest vast sums of money into
unproven space startups, thenthere was a realization of oh,
okay, well, we don't have theliquidity anymore. So maybe we
(32:17):
should really be looking at isthis going to be profitable? Is
this going to deliver value forsomeone on Earth? And very often
the answer was no. There were alot of startups that were kind
of creating products for thespace industry, and it was very
circular. And this is the pointat which a lot of investment in
(32:42):
space tech has kind of droppeddown a little bit. That's kind
of the case everywhere.
Currently, the fundraisingenvironment is a little bit
difficult to navigate, there'sjust not as much money floating
around as there was two yearsago. That said, I don't think
this is necessarily a bad thing.
(33:05):
In part, what I believe thatthis diminished access to funds
represents is a lot of the folkswho got swept up in the hype,
the space-curious, who foundthat when they became a little
bit more informed, there werefewer avenues to profitability.
And now they're less able toafford really investing in
(33:28):
something that isn't going to bethat way, and they have left
that particular sector. And Idon't think that's necessarily a
bad thing. I very much wantpeople to be excited about
space. And I would love forpeople to invest in space. But
I'm glad that this has been anopportunity where some of the
space curious have really becomebetter informed about ways that
(33:51):
space can deliver value, and thespace-informed are now being
very, very judicious about thedecisions that they're making
and the investments that they'remaking. And that's, I think, a
very good thing forentrepreneurs that are coming
out now. Because you almost kindof know, if someone is getting
(34:12):
funding now, then they're veryviable, they have real
potential. So in some ways, Ithink that's a good thing. It
does mean that it's harder forsomeone who isn't necessarily a
technical person, doesn'tnecessarily have a background in
in aerospace engineering, itmight make it harder for them to
(34:34):
kind of break into thatindustry, just because there's
fewer opportunities, but I thinkit's a good time for them to be
really learning about okay, howdoes this industry work and how
can we really deliver value? Igenerally think it's a net
positive and a lot of this ishard tech as well. So the
(35:01):
timelines are going to be longand the investment is going to
not come easy, almostinevitably.
Forrest Meyen (35:09):
What's the toughest part about this
technology and this business?
Scarlett Koller (35:17):
This technology and this business?
Forrest Meyen (35:20):
Two different things, I guess. You can touch
on both.
Scarlett Koller (35:24):
Right. So I think a key technical difficulty
that we're going to face is inGNC, in controls. And so I think
it's going to be very, verydifficult to come up with a
really good system that will beable to control the attitude of
the spacecraft, while you arechanging its center of mass
(35:47):
while you're moving all of thisstuff on orbit and building a
very large antenna relative tothe size of the spacecraft bus.
Forrest Meyen (35:57):
So during the assembly process.
Scarlett Koller (35:59):
During the assembly process. I think the
controls part is going to be areal challenge. Luckily, power
actually is not going to be ahuge challenge. We're not going
to be power-limited in this typeof technology, because it
doesn't require heating, it'snot going to have very large
power requirements. But I thinkcontrols wise, it's going to be
(36:21):
very complex. And I thinkthere's going to need to be a
lot of technical development onthat. There's currently some
derisking, that's ongoing, asmentioned with the environmental
testing, I think that's ahurdle. But it's not necessarily
as much of a technicalchallenge. So understanding how
(36:42):
this behaves in the spaceenvironment is good, I think the
controls are going to be reallydifficult to master. That said,
I do know a few really, reallystellar controls engineers, and
we'll see how that goes. Andthen that development is a
little bit further down theline, probably not for another
(37:03):
year. But it is I think probablygoing to be a big technical
challenge for us. And then interms of the business, I mean,
as I just touched on, we are ina current state of the economy
where there's just a little bitless investment in hard tech,
and actually getting funding asa startup is just a little bit
(37:27):
tougher than it was even acouple of years ago. And this is
also I will freely admit, myfirst time really getting into
raising and really trying topitch something fundamentally
new. So that's a challenge forme personally. And I think
(37:49):
that's going to be a challengebusiness-wise, at least for the
next couple of years. Because wehave to have a pretty solid
roadmap of when is thistechnology going to really
graduate the lab. And, you know,understanding when that's going
to happen is sort of a chickenand egg problem, because it does
(38:10):
also rely on funding. Butfunding is usually contingent on
knowing those timelines. So I'mhaving to juggle a little bit of
understanding and a little bitof conjecture there to really
come up with an idea of how thisis going to go. And, again, this
is part of why I'm glad thatthis is a technology that is of
(38:33):
public interest. And because theentire point of SBIR STTR is so
that the government can affordto take on more risk in terms of
small business innovation andtechnology transfer businesses.
So that's an avenue that isvaluable to us. But navigating
(38:55):
that is challenging as well. Itreally does also require the
same set of skills I'mdeveloping right now.
JMill (39:05):
Something that I'm curious about are your
experiences of putting togetherat the earliest stages, what is
now known as MithrilTechnologies, and up to the
present of, say, pursuingfunding and those kinds of
conversations because a lot offolks have never tried to create
(39:30):
a company or fundraise for it.
They haven't been through, theyhaven't had the opportunity to
or they've been averse to doingthat. So can you take our
audience sort of with youthrough what that experience has
been like, the kinds of peoplethat you've been engaging with,
what's worked, maybe what hasn'tworked yet, because I think that
could be a really interestingperspective, since you're again
(39:53):
at the earlier stages and comingout of an academic environment
that's pretty conducive tosupporting that.
Scarlett Koller (40:01):
It is very conducive to supporting that.
And I mean, I'm not yet in aposition to say that something
definitively hasn't worked, Ican only say it hasn't worked
yet. I have been very, verylucky in the sense that I
currently am in a position whereI can pursue this full time. And
(40:23):
I know other people in similarprograms who are not in a
position to take a massive riskwith their career at this
particular juncture. And I'vebeen lucky in that I am, and
it's a good time for me to dosomething that is possibly a
(40:43):
little bit less lucrative for atleast a little while. And if it
works out, then I fully expectit to be lucrative. But if it
doesn't, I do still think andthis is just a kind of general
comforting thing toentrepreneurs, it is still a
(41:06):
value add, because you do stillhave this experience of standing
up something from scratch, andyou have a lot more
understanding of what goes intothat. And I mean, I've been
learning at a very, veryaccelerated rate, comparing that
to previous jobs. I think I'veabsorbed a lot more information
(41:30):
and been able to make a lot moreconnections a lot faster, in
this particular role in standingup a new company, than I have
when I've been joining anexisting organization. And I am
very excited about that fact. Soif you are considering
entrepreneurship, that is huge,and you do not lose that even if
(41:54):
things do not go your way. Youcan for the rest of your life,
say, you know, I actually workedon standing up a new
organization to do somethingtechnically difficult. And, you
know, my experience is now goingto inform everything else. So I
do have to keep reassuringmyself with that. Learning a
(42:18):
lot. This is a value add for mealmost no matter what. And no,
not everyone's going to be ableto do that and unfortunately,
that's the reality of life. Iknow other people who would have
liked to and can't for a varietyof reasons, other commitments,
family things and so on. I'vebeen lucky that I'm in a
(42:38):
position where I can do that.
And yet, but it's still, youknow, incredibly challenging and
probably maybe in some waysdisorienting, at least that's
been my experience where highuncertainty and it's... you
know, sometimes it can be like,well, there's no boss, which is
(42:58):
often viewed as a good thing.
But it is also there might notbe as much direction and that
one really needs to manage thatuncertainty and start to figure
out well, what is the next stepABC, and what to do when that
plan gets messed up, and how tohow to be resilient through
that.
(43:20):
Yeah, it's not easy. There isobviously a lot less
accountability. Until you reallybuild out your organization and
have a structure, then, youknow, you yourself as a founder
have less accountability. For mypart, I think, a few ways that
(43:41):
I've been overcoming thisbecause sometimes I am a little
bit paralyzed by just not reallyknowing if something that I'm
doing is the right thing.
Something that I do keepreminding myself is that almost
anything that I can do in termsof reaching out to folks who are
working in relevant fields, onrelevant projects, who are
(44:04):
people of contact for differentgovernment solicitations, anyone
that I meet. At the bareminimum, I will learn that that
avenue is not one that is ofvalue for me to pursue. That's
the bare minimum that couldhappen. There's almost no
(44:26):
downside to just reaching outand asking people how does this
work? And what are yourinsights? And I think again,
there's huge value in the spaceindustry being very
self-selecting, because it meansthat people very often have very
strong networks. I've been ableto leverage my own and I've
almost invariably hit intosituations where someone will
(44:50):
tell me, you know, I don't knowabout this, but I know five
other people who do. Soleveraging your network, almost
any contact you can make isgoing to be a net positive,
because at the bare minimum,you're going to find out, you
know, this is not a relevantpath of inquiry. So, you know, I
keep reminding myself, itdoesn't matter if not everything
(45:12):
that you learn, and that youadvance your work on, not every
contact is going to be apotential customer, it doesn't
matter if you if this nextperson you talk to isn't. It
matters that you've tried andthat you keep expanding that
because that is the only way youfigure out where your business
has the opportunities. And thenyou know, I am nervous about
(45:40):
this. I very much am. This isnot an easy thing to do. And I
do have to do moreself-promotion than I'm used to.
But, you know, I've beensomewhat heartened by meeting a
lot of other people who are in asimilar setting, a lot of folks
(46:02):
who are who have come out ofthis MBA program with me who are
pursuing all sorts ofentrepreneurial ventures. And I
think it's very advisable...
even you know, you don't have tobe in a grad program to do this.
But if you if you want to pursueany kind of entrepreneurship
(46:22):
journey, definitely try to meetother people who are engaged in
something similar, who aretrying to get a new piece of
technology off the ground, orchange the way that people, for
instance, do 401k investing, Iknow someone who is working on
that right now. Because theytend to be incredibly
optimistic, obviously, or theywouldn't be doing what they're
(46:45):
doing. And like the passion forspace, that kind of energy is
very infectious. I've found thatreally valuable because
sometimes I struggle and I'mvery nervous about what it is
that I'm doing. And I found thatit's very confidence building to
speak with some of my friendsthat I know are working on their
(47:09):
own ventures in variouscapacities, and really absorb
how excited they are about whatthey're doing, and about their
interest in learning about whatI'm working on. They have
confidence that I will succeed,which is stunning to me, but I
have a lot of confidence thatthey will because I consider
(47:32):
them to be brilliant people. Sothat's been very, very valuable
to me. Just having that networkof people who are in a similar
stage and doing similar thingsin their careers.
Forrest Meyen (47:45):
Scarlett, I have a lot of confidence that you're
going to succeed. So I've seenyou do it time and time again.
At this point in the episode,we'd like to give you an
opportunity to kind of make apitch to our audience. If you're
looking to hire, looking forcollaborations, if you have a
(48:07):
some sort of ask, feel free toto reach out and let our
listeners know what you'd liketo let them know.
JMill (48:16):
Even if you need to tell your friends that you're
heads down building stuff, andsorry that you're not responding
to text messages and hangouts.
Scarlett Koller (48:28):
Well, in all fairness, I'm lucky a lot of my
friends are in the same industryor otherwise involved in
ventures. So it is actually nottoo bad... sometimes I've been
leveraging that. But if I had acall to action right now, it
would be mostly aboutinformation and understanding
(48:48):
because we are really trying toget a much clearer picture here
of the scope of our opportunity.
If you are currently working inany kind of weather awareness,
or in any kind of large apertureantenna tech and its various
applications, whether in thegovernment or in the commercial
(49:08):
sector, I would be very, veryinterested in hearing from you.
Especially if you think you havea new commercial application of
this type of tech. We're alreadytalking to folks in insurance
and possibly in aviation anddefinitely in defense on uses
(49:29):
for our technology. And if youhave any thoughts on that,
anyone that you think would beinteresting for us to talk to,
then, you know, please reachout. I would be so interested to
meet and speak with you. So Ican be reached at Scarlett—and
Scarlett with two T's, atmithril dot space. So that would
(49:53):
be where where to reach me forthat and I really would love to
get to know a little bit moreabout anything that anyone knows
that they think could be useful.
This is a learning experiencefor me and for my co-founder so
(50:16):
a lot of fun. I would definitelyappreciate more learning
opportunities.
Forrest Meyen (50:20):
Alright everyone send in those messages.
Scarlett Koller (50:24):
Yeah, thank you. It's been really fun
talking to both of you. And I'mvery, very flattered that you
invited me to be on the podcast.
I've already listened to thefirst part of the three-part
series and I'm very excited tohear the third one as well.
Forrest Meyen (50:41):
Thank you very much for joining us. We really
appreciate having you on thepodcast today.
Scarlett Koller (50:47):
I'm Scarlett Koehler, the CEO of Mithril
Technologies. Stay tough!
JMill (50:56):
Though complex and fraught with challenges, the
allure of space and itsrelationship to our planet
inspires and drives tough techtrailblazers, like Miss Scarlett
Koehler. To finish ourthree-part series on space, our
next guest is Preston Dunlap,the first chief technology
officer and chief architect ofthe US Space Force and Air Force
(51:20):
and founder of ArkenstoneVentures. Until next time, stay
tough.
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I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com