November 27, 2025 • 19 mins
James Menzies, Editor of Today's Trucking and TruckNews.com, returns to review the transportation industry market conditions through the lens of trailer demand, freight rates, and equipment purchasing hesitation. From tariffs and emissions uncertainty to fleets extending trade cycles, James outlines what’s stalling recovery and why the second half of 2026 could signal a turning point. Tune in now.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Jason Cuddy (00:12):
Hello and welcome to another episode of the
Transportation Exchange Podcastpresented by Rush Truck Centres
of Canada.
I'm your host, Jason Cuddy, andjoining us again today is Mr.
James Menzies, editor fromTruck News and today's Trucking.
Thanks for joining us again.
James Menzies (00:23):
Always fun to be here, especially after we
predicted everything that wasgoing to happen exactly right
down to the point.
Jason Cuddy (00:28):
Exactly.
So we're going to kind ofreview some of that.
It is that time of year alreadyfor the year-end review.
We did one in May, kind ofmid-year, so we'll touch base on
that.
But as as usual, let's kind ofdig through it and we'll start
with the market indicator, whichis trailers.
James Menzies (00:40):
Yeah, trailers is said to be the leading
indicator when it comes toequipment demand.
And we're not seeing any rightnow.
We're not seeing that demand.
There's a lot of reasons forthat.
There's the tariffs which add alot of, you know, there's a lot
of aluminum and steel that goesinto a trailer.
And then you just have thatsoft rate demand that hasn't
picked up.
I mean, everyone's been waitingfor that to happen.
Um, not long ago, I was down atthe American Trucking
(01:01):
Association's managementconference and exhibition, which
is a good place to go to sortof get the pulse of the fleets
and the OEMs and what they'rethinking about.
And no one was overlyoptimistic that they're going to
see trucking conditions improveover the next six months or so.
If there's a recovery, it's notgoing to be based on freight
demand.
It's more likely to be based oncapacity leaving the industry.
But everyone's wondering what'staking so long and such a hard
(01:22):
market for that capacity toleave.
Jason Cuddy (01:24):
Yeah, that's a good point.
We're seeing that you'restarting to see obvious news,
you know, more so in the US, alittle bit in Canada, um, you
know, about businesses that arekind of not making it through.
And to your point, that, youknow, will help bring them rates
up as the capacity leaves themarket, which then may in start
spurring, you know, somepurchasing of new equipment,
assuming that the rates can thensupport the capital cost of the
equipment for sure.
James Menzies (01:43):
P Right.
And it it's much more uhpalatable financially to start
adding trailers before you addclass eight trucks.
Right.
Uh especially if you'reuncertain because you know it's
a it's a lower cost.
Yeah and both are needed, butum trailers are something that
you can pick up for a lot lessmoney than a new class eight
these days.
Jason Cuddy (01:59):
l That's true.
And they're not you know tiedto any emission standards and
stuff that are you knowpotentially coming down that
way.
And I guess you know, tied tothat you know with the trailers,
obviously the class eight andmedium duty, what do you what
are you seeing and hearing aboutthe those two lines?
James Menzies (02:11):
Uh for class eight and medium duty, it's much
the same.
There's just so much, I thinkyou said the word uncertainty
and there's so much uncertaintythat's keeping fleets sitting on
their hands.
And there's multiple reasonsfor it.
There's emissions regulations,what's gonna happen?
This was supposed to be a greatyear for you to be selling the
trucks.
100%.
Because with EPA 27 on thehorizon, everyone was supposed
to be buying trucks before thoseprices went up.
Correct.
Didn't happen.
Now we don't even know if it'llhappen.
It probably will, but what willit look like?
(02:33):
Will it be changed?
Will it be delayed?
We don't know.
So that pre-buy never happened,and fleets continue to wait for
answers around emissions.
At the same time, you've gotwhat will the tariffs cost?
Those rules are ever changing.
Now we know that they're goingto be applied to full vehicles.
Initially it was just apart.
So what's that going to looklike?
And what kind of an impact willthat have on price?
And I understand like dealersdon't want to be caught with
(02:54):
these tariffed trucks.
In case the tariffs go away,how do you recover that tariff
surcharge that you paid the OEM?
Right.
Fleets feel the same.
They don't want to go and add10 trucks, pay a hefty tariff
surcharge on it, and then thosetariffs disappear and they've
overpaid.
So what does everyone do?
They sit and wait.
They wait, and with a softmarket, there's really not a
whole lot of demand to go outand add new trucks.
But what fleets are doing isthey're extending life cycles.
(03:17):
And that comes with a cost toothat I think a lot of people
overlook.
Jason Cuddy (03:20):
Yeah, that's a good point.
And I and we're seeing outhere, obviously the order intake
is is is lower, you know, forall the OEs, uh, not just not
just the ones we represent.
But you're definitely seeingit, that soft market and and
agreed, you know, we all thoughtwith the pre-buy, even Cummins
was going to pull some enginesforward a little bit quicker,
and they've you know they'veobviously changed the plans with
with the uncertainty with theEPA.
But you know, 27 there is stilltechnology coming.
But no one's loading up for youknow for this year like we
(03:42):
thought they would.
Um and yeah, and it's reallyuncertainty.
James Menzies (03:45):
And and that technology's already been paid
for by the OEMs.
Right.
I mean, they've been working onit for years.
They've invested hundreds ofmillions, if not a billion or
more, dollars into it.
They've done their seasonaltesting, their hot weather
testing, their cold weathertesting.
They're gonna want to recoupthat investment one way.
So I don't think thoseregulations will be completely
eliminated, but what they looklike by the time we hear, who
knows?
And here we are, weeks out from2027.
(04:07):
Yeah.
Jason Cuddy (04:08):
Well, and it's interesting, you talk about you
know, uh obviously people aredelaying the purchasing, which
you totally understand andtotally understandable within
this market.
The challenge is obviously ifyou're delaying the capital cost
of the purchase, you still havemaintenance repair costs, you
know, which don't necessarilydecrease as the vehicles get
older.
Those parts are still impactedby tariffs, so there's still is
a you know a cost to that.
And then what we're seeing nowwith with the newer technology,
(04:31):
uh, you know, with the OEs werepresent, but obviously
everyone does, is the newertechnology definitely seems to
be getting better fuel economy.
So there is almost a tippingpoint.
You gotta run some some reallythorough TCOs to really see if
holding on to equipment evenanother year, year and a half is
makes sense because the betweenthe fuel cost savings and some
other savings, you it may offsetwhat you think is to spend, but
you know, the capital costs upfront, which does hurt.
(04:53):
But there could be a quickerreturn to your investment than
if you kind of hold on toequipment for the year and a
half.
James Menzies (04:58):
Right.
And I'm not sure all fleetsthink that through on a
sophisticated level like that.
But um, if you get at a stepwith your traditional trade
cycles, it's not so easy to getback into step either.
So that that's something to beconsidered as well.
Yeah.
And I think the other concerntoo, obviously, if you hold on
to stuff as the market keepssoftening, you know, you're
gonna have companies that kindof you know go underwater and
you've got you know, fire salesand equipment, stuff going to
(05:20):
auction, so it reduces yourpotential revenue of the
trade-in values or to sell ofthe old equipment, which maybe
on the books are much higherthan what the market's gonna
bear too.
So there's a lot of factorsthat are very uncertain.
It seems like an easy solution.
Hang on to your equipmentlonger, sweat the asset, but
really it comes with a lot of alot of uh implications.
Jason Cuddy (05:35):
Yeah.
And you know, when we talkabout uncertainty, obviously the
biggest one is tariffs as wetalk here, you know, going into
20, going into 26, we we havesome line of sight to your
point.
You know, they're they want totariff uh equipment that's not
made in the USA, but obviouslythere's you know nuances and
asterisk to hold you know whatthat actually impacts and what
it affects.
So what do you what are youhearing from the different you
know between fleets and andother OEs as far as how they're
(05:58):
kind of managing through this?
James Menzies (06:00):
OEs are are trying to um near source as much
as they can, but there's onlyso much you can do.
And you look at they're they'reall great big global
manufacturers with manufacturingand suppliers, uh supplier base
that's around the world.
Right.
You know, I was at an eventrecently where where um one of
the leaders that come and saidit's just it's not the engine,
it's every little piece on theengine, it's every piece of
(06:20):
metal that comes from placesthat you know maybe we didn't
really pay a lot of attention tobefore, and now we have to try
to bring some of that productionto the United States.
When it comes to transmissions,um at the same event, uh a
speaker from Allison said, youknow, we don't even have the
forging equipment in the US thatwe need to make our
transmissions here.
Right.
And it would take years tosource that, secure it, bring it
(06:43):
here, and get it up andrunning.
So it's not like flickingflipping a switch for these
OEMs, and they're trying tofigure it out as they go because
the rules keep changing.
Jason Cuddy (06:50):
Yeah, it's a good point.
That's the challenge with it,right?
It's you know, the tariffs areobviously designed to bring you
know stuff back in-house, but itis what you're saying, it can't
just be done overnight.
There's some little things thatcan be done, and obviously most
of the OEs have you knowprobably one or two plants you
know within the U.S.
that they can then move stuffaround to meet production needs
for the US versus Canada and youknow into Mexico.
So you can you can play with itto a certain extent, but it is
(07:11):
it's a challenging, it's ajuggle, you know, for everyone
to figure out.
James Menzies (07:14):
Absolutely.
And at the same event, therewas a trailer manufacturer who
said, even if I do bringproduction to the U.S., I still
don't think I can get theworkforce.
Right.
Unemployment's still fairly lowthere.
The economy for now is hangingon.
And um it's not just it's notsample to produce everything
domestically within the withinthe borders of the United
States.
No.
Jason Cuddy (07:31):
I think that lesson will be learned at time, but
uh, well, it's a global supplychain for a reason, right?
It's kind of we we built upthat way, which but you know,
and driving all of thisuncertainty for you know the the
carriers obviously is rates.
You know, rates still seem tobe fairly depressed.
What's uh what are you hearingfrom from that world?
Yeah, you know, we're in um RFPseason now, and they're they're
(07:51):
starting to get some um someopportunities to bid, and uh
what I'm hearing from the thecarriers is that uh fleets are
are still not in the driver'sseat when it comes to rates.
Um shippers are still takingadvantage of the current market
and there's a lot of pressureunder rates still because
there's too much capacity.
And shippers are are willing totake advantage of that.
Um basically the publiclytraded fleets in the US, the big
(08:14):
guys were saying that they seereason for optimism in the
second half of 2026, but notbefore then, based on on what
they're seeing.
Some shippers, someforward-looking shippers are
beginning to look at locking incapacity because they know it
can't stay like this forever.
They know that it's um it's acyclical industry and eventually
the the pricing pendulum isgonna swing the other way.
Right.
And they all have shortmemories, but not so sure that
(08:36):
they don't remember what it waslike after COVID.
Right, fair.
So I mean I think some of thesmarter shippers will start to
to plan for the recovery, um,but we're not seeing it yet.
And even the spot market isit's still just sort of it's
steady at least.
It's not volatile.
True.
And there's freight to behauled, but it's not growing and
uh and the rates are are stilluh down on the dump.
Um the consensus from BobCostello, who's the the chief
(08:59):
economist at the AmericanTrucking Associations when he
spoke at at their conference wasthat this will not be a
demand-based recovery.
It's going to be acapacity-based recovery, which
is sad because that meansthere's going to be a lot of
bankruptcies and a lot of peoplethat that leave the industry
because they just can't make it.
Yeah, and you're seeing it, right?
I mean, there was, I think,something in the news yesterday,
you know, with within Canada,you know, a couple carriers that
(09:20):
are struggling.
Uh you saw a lot in the US,obviously.
And and I know there's, youknow, there's been a lot of
other, you know, undertones withhow carriers are set up and uh
things within the market thatyou know are driving that.
So some may welcome thatchange, some obviously don't.
But at the end of the day, it'sunfortunate because you you are
having carriers, you know, goout of business, um, but it will
then change the capacitydemands, which hopefully then
(09:40):
increases the rates and thendrives back some certainty and
some sort of stability back intothe industry for sure.
And the market doesn'tdiscriminate.
There will be good carriers,well-run carriers, as well as
poor-run carriers that aredriven out of the market in
these conditions.
Yeah.
Yeah, no fair.
And so you know, we talkedabout this last year.
It's funny because we you youmentioned the the forecast is
you know kind of flat untilsecond half of you know next
(10:01):
year, and then you know, maybe aa bit of a gradual rise.
And I think we said that thistime last year about this market
that we're in now.
We you know, it's it's beensteady, I guess.
It's been soft for sure, butit's been steady, steady
through.
There's been no real big peaks,there's been no pickup, you
know, as we're speaking now,nothing's really looking like
it's gonna you know jump throughthe end of the year.
James Menzies (10:20):
So um I was talking to a forecaster and I
referred to the the freightrecession, it corrected me and
said, No, no, James, there'sfreight.
It's not a freight recession,it's a rate recession.
Right.
Which is a different way tolook at it, but I think it makes
a lot of sense.
Yeah.
And you know, I the reason whythere's a lot of this optimism
coming from the big US carriersabout capacity leaving the
market is because there'scrackdown now on non-domiciled
(10:40):
CDL holders.
Right.
And these are people that don'tnecessarily live in the state
where they got their CDL.
Some states were more handingthem out more liberally than
others.
Some of them are not even legalresidents of the United States.
And now there's a a bigenforcement drive underway to
get these guys off the off theroad.
And we're hearing about um, youknow, checkpoints in Arkansas
and Illinois and other states.
(11:01):
And in addition to that, theylapse after two years.
So there's at least 200,000 ofthese licenses that are set to
lapse over the next two years.
Gotcha.
And that might be the catalystto get the capacity out of the
market that will lead tostronger rates.
And again, I think everyonewould rather it be a
market-based recovery wherefreight increases.
Um, because you know, it's kindof a tragic story to watch
(11:22):
unfold.
These are all humans with theirlives and livelihoods that are
being lost, but at the sametime, um, we probably never
should have been in thissituation in the first place
with that many unqualifieddrivers on the road.
Jason Cuddy (11:33):
No, fair.
And the challenge with it tooin the US is navigating, you
know, what what you're seeingfrom a federal level, like you
said there with the checkpoints.
But then even certain statesare kind of imposing or talking
to impose statewide regulationswith regards to, you know,
foreign drivers with a CDLlicense, whether it's Canadian
or Mexican, potentially, right?
Obviously, there's asterisk toall this.
But again, it goes back to thiswhole uncertainty as rates and
like it's it's all I thinkuncertainty is the biggest
(11:55):
navigator of all this.
James Menzies (11:57):
Yeah, we we talked last time about the
English language proficiencyrequirements, which was another
um thought that there was athought that that could take a
lot of capacity off the road.
We haven't really seen that.
Um and we haven't seen and theCanadian fleets I've talked to
haven't been overly affected bythat.
Um, some have had their driverstested.
I haven't heard of many thathave had them taken out of
service.
It seems like most of thatenforcement is happening in the
southern states along theMexican border.
Jason Cuddy (12:18):
Right.
James Menzies (12:19):
And the out of service rate, even though it's
supposed to be an automaticout-of-service, the out of
service rate of those that arefailing the English language
proficiency exams is actuallypretty low because a lot of
those drivers are only allowedto haul into the border zone
exchange, drop the trail and goright back to Mexico, and
they're not placing them out ofservice.
So that's not having the hugeimpact on capacity that we
thought it might.
Jason Cuddy (12:39):
Fair.
And I guess the one thing we'restill trying to gauge, and you
mentioned on it earlier, was youknow, is there a pre-buy for
27?
Because you know, now we are atthe tipping point where, yes,
with you know, some unknown EPAregulations, some things have
been dialed back, but as youmentioned, the OEs have invested
heavily into the 27 engines andthey're all going to be there
for Gen 27 production.
(13:00):
So, you know, what what do youhear there?
Do people think maybe this willbe the triggering event for a
pre-buy?
James Menzies (13:06):
It it's funny because the OEMs aren't asking
for this to be taken off thebooks.
They've already done the work,they've already spent the money.
Um, so who is the APA trying tocater to here um by casting so
much uncertainty over it?
Uh it's not the OEMs.
The OEMs want it to proceed.
I think where there could besome some leeway or some
flexibility that the OEMs wouldlike to see was the requirement
(13:27):
around the extended warranty ofthe after-treatment system
because that was adding a lot ofcost.
Right.
And if that can can be looseneda little bit or done away with
and they keep the existingwarranty on after-treatment
systems, um, then that willlessen the cost to the the fleet
and the end buyer.
So there are benefits to thenew technology, as there always
are.
Um I don't think there's gonnabe a huge step up in in fuel
(13:49):
economy this time around, butthere there should be some uh
improvements in performance fromfrom what we've heard from the
OEMs that have been doing thework.
So we just need answers.
And I I think all the OEMsagree.
We just tell us, tell us whatwe have to do when we have to do
it.
Um, because they're ready.
They're ready and they'vethey've made the investment, and
um, you know, fleets are gonnahave to start buying equipment
one way or the other.
Jason Cuddy (14:09):
Yeah.
And I think you'd think, youknow, when I look at it from our
end, like the soft touch pointsare the ones you could easily
kind of remove, like you said,right?
The engines are the engines,they're all in, they've invested
the RD money.
You know, they want that toproceed because they they put
the investment in, you know, thesoft touches, like the ext the
extended warranty coverage, uh,or even the quota amounts, say
you're running in California,you know, one you need by one EV
(14:29):
for X amount, credits for youknow uh internal combustion.
So those are things you canjust make go away.
Yeah you know, which which isand it doesn't impact the the
amount of research anddevelopment that's been done to
the engines, but yeah, theengines are coming either way,
but it would be nice just tohave some certainty as to you
know what what is required, whatis what is the mandate and you
know and how and what is thetime frame for it.
James Menzies (14:47):
Right.
That um that regulation, EPA27, um again, industry uh does
isn't asking for that to betaken off the table.
I think they were happy to seerevisions and changes to GHG3,
and that brought with it somemandates to sell more EVs.
Right.
And as a result of that goingaway, we're seeing a lot less EV
demand.
And you know, that was all therage for the last few years.
And here we are, um, you know,in certain applications, they
(15:10):
continue to be used and theycontinue to work well, but um, I
don't think we're going to seethe the wider spread pickup that
we might have thought a coupleyears ago.
Jason Cuddy (15:18):
No, I think the early adapters are in, yeah.
And um, you know, all the onesthat uh want to take advantage
of it have have done so and it'syou know seen how it works.
And I think everyone's stillkind of sitting on sidelines to
see what the ROI looks like onthat too, right?
Because it's you know, how longwill the batteries last?
What is the cost to replacethem?
What is the residual value ofthese vehicles when they hit the
open market after their usefullife within a fleet?
And that's still all unknown,right?
So I think everyone's just kindof hanging back and waiting.
(15:40):
And obviously, with all the EPAregulations, different
guidelines, and you know,incentives and credits kind of
coming and going, everyone's,you know, I think from any for
higher companies are definitelystill sitting back and waiting.
And you know, let's see whathappens with the first adopters
and then go from there.
And I I still haven't seen aTesla semi on the road up here.
Have you?
I have not seen one yet.
Or are we supposed to be saving50,000 a year or so by now?
Yeah.
I mean, you know, they'rerunning in the states, they do
(16:01):
well for what they do, but it'syou know, I think the class
eight is always still gonna beit's the infrastructure, really,
right?
It's it's the the the abilityto support the product outside
of just like it's coming homeevery night.
And I think that's why we'veseen the early adopters who are,
you know, the final mile cares.
I think those have been reallysuccessful, and those will make
a lot of sense.
You come home, you don't put alot of miles, there's no range
anxiety.
They idle a lot, so you take alot of wear and tear off an
(16:21):
engine.
So they're great fit for theEVs as far as what they do.
You know, the class eightstuff, you know, it it I'm sure
it has a purpose, and we've seenthem be successful in certain
areas, but definitely theinfrastructure's not at the same
pace as where they're pushingto get the you know, the class
eight stuff on the road.
James Menzies (16:37):
Right.
And you know, I'm not gonnawrite them off entirely because
how many times did the industrydip its toes in a natural gas
before finding a product thatactually works and suits the
needs, which they seem to haveright now in that uh 15 liter
Cummins?
So um, you know, maybe, maybethey'll pull back and maybe
again something else willhappen.
Great.
New government, who knows?
And then we might hear we mighthave round two of the the the
(16:58):
EV uh explosion.
Jason Cuddy (16:59):
Yeah, I know for sure.
So I guess based on that, Imean we don't seem to ever get
this dead on, but let's uh let'sgive it a shot.
What's what are we thinkingwe're looking like 26 gonna be?
Second half?
Yeah, that's a safe thing tosay, and that's what everyone
seems to be saying.
Yeah.
James Menzies (17:12):
Um, you know, no one's expecting a quick
turnaround.
So if you've made it this far,buckle in, stay buckled in, and
uh, you know, you're you'resurvivor.
This industry is so resilient.
Yes.
Uh it can't stay like thisforever.
It really can't.
And and some things to lookforward to.
You mentioned the fact thatthere's going to be a big
crackdown on on certain driversin the US.
That's gonna remove a lot ofcapacity from the roads.
(17:33):
Um, I heard someone say theother day it's gonna be more
than than the impact ofmandating ELDs.
Gotcha.
And that created a bit of acapacity crunch.
Uh, here in Canada, we just hada federal budget, our first
under Mark Carney, and and hecommitted a lot of money and had
a lot to say about crackingdown on on driver ink, the
misclassification of of drivers.
Right.
And I think in Canada, uh a lotof fleets are are wait, you're
(17:55):
gonna wait and see how muchteeth is the enforcement gonna
have, what are the fines gonnalook like?
Um, but the fact that it'sbeing addressed, I think, gives
some hope that maybe somecapacity will come out of Canada
too.
And it might be some of thosecompanies that don't necessarily
treat their drivers as theyshould.
And that could be a good thingfor the industry.
It could clean up the industry.
At the same time, it could putsome pressure on rates.
(18:15):
And maybe, maybe if thegovernment starts talking about
this, maybe shippers will startto pay attention to who they use
to all the freight.
Jason Cuddy (18:21):
Yeah, that's a good point.
So, yeah, it's a kind of a waitand see, maybe same as
predictions last year.
And you know, the you know, toyour point, this is a very, you
know, resilient industry.
It's very cyclical.
Like we've been through this.
It, you know, it goes down, itgoes up, it goes down.
That's the you know, it'sconstant.
It's just the factors thatcause the up and down are always
different.
But um, yeah, to your point, Ithink if you're in it and you're
getting through, hang on.
(18:42):
You know, there there will belight down tunnel.
We just need to get get therates established, kind of get
get some market certainty inplace, and then you know, we we
should be good to go.
James Menzies (18:51):
Uh I think we've at the very least reached the
floor.
No one sees it getting worse,even if they don't see it
getting better right away.
Good point.
Jason Cuddy (18:56):
Yeah.
So well, we'll hang and see.
We'll do this again in sixmonths and see how accurate
we're on that one.
Yeah.
James Menzies (19:01):
We've got a perfect track record, right?
Jason Cuddy (19:03):
Exactly.
Perfect.
Well, thanks for doing thisagain with us.
I appreciate it.
It's always fun.
Yes.
And that concludes today'sepisode.
To catch past episodes, checkout transportation exchange
podcast.ca.
Until next time, thanks forwatching.
Hello and welcome to another episode of the
Transportation Exchange Podcastpresented by Rush Truck Centres
of Canada.
I'm your host, Jason Cuddy, andjoining us again today is Mr.
James Menzies, editor fromTruck News and today's Trucking.
Thanks for joining us again.
James Menzies (00:23):
Always fun to be here, especially after we
predicted everything that wasgoing to happen exactly right
down to the point.
Jason Cuddy (00:28):
Exactly.
So we're going to kind ofreview some of that.
It is that time of year alreadyfor the year-end review.
We did one in May, kind ofmid-year, so we'll touch base on
that.
But as as usual, let's kind ofdig through it and we'll start
with the market indicator, whichis trailers.
James Menzies (00:40):
Yeah, trailers is said to be the leading
indicator when it comes toequipment demand.
And we're not seeing any rightnow.
We're not seeing that demand.
There's a lot of reasons forthat.
There's the tariffs which add alot of, you know, there's a lot
of aluminum and steel that goesinto a trailer.
And then you just have thatsoft rate demand that hasn't
picked up.
I mean, everyone's been waitingfor that to happen.
Um, not long ago, I was down atthe American Trucking
(01:01):
Association's managementconference and exhibition, which
is a good place to go to sortof get the pulse of the fleets
and the OEMs and what they'rethinking about.
And no one was overlyoptimistic that they're going to
see trucking conditions improveover the next six months or so.
If there's a recovery, it's notgoing to be based on freight
demand.
It's more likely to be based oncapacity leaving the industry.
But everyone's wondering what'staking so long and such a hard
(01:22):
market for that capacity toleave.
Jason Cuddy (01:24):
Yeah, that's a good point.
We're seeing that you'restarting to see obvious news,
you know, more so in the US, alittle bit in Canada, um, you
know, about businesses that arekind of not making it through.
And to your point, that, youknow, will help bring them rates
up as the capacity leaves themarket, which then may in start
spurring, you know, somepurchasing of new equipment,
assuming that the rates can thensupport the capital cost of the
equipment for sure.
James Menzies (01:43):
P Right.
And it it's much more uhpalatable financially to start
adding trailers before you addclass eight trucks.
Right.
Uh especially if you'reuncertain because you know it's
a it's a lower cost.
Yeah and both are needed, butum trailers are something that
you can pick up for a lot lessmoney than a new class eight
these days.
Jason Cuddy (01:59):
l That's true.
And they're not you know tiedto any emission standards and
stuff that are you knowpotentially coming down that
way.
And I guess you know, tied tothat you know with the trailers,
obviously the class eight andmedium duty, what do you what
are you seeing and hearing aboutthe those two lines?
James Menzies (02:11):
Uh for class eight and medium duty, it's much
the same.
There's just so much, I thinkyou said the word uncertainty
and there's so much uncertaintythat's keeping fleets sitting on
their hands.
And there's multiple reasonsfor it.
There's emissions regulations,what's gonna happen?
This was supposed to be a greatyear for you to be selling the
trucks.
100%.
Because with EPA 27 on thehorizon, everyone was supposed
to be buying trucks before thoseprices went up.
Correct.
Didn't happen.
Now we don't even know if it'llhappen.
It probably will, but what willit look like?
(02:33):
Will it be changed?
Will it be delayed?
We don't know.
So that pre-buy never happened,and fleets continue to wait for
answers around emissions.
At the same time, you've gotwhat will the tariffs cost?
Those rules are ever changing.
Now we know that they're goingto be applied to full vehicles.
Initially it was just apart.
So what's that going to looklike?
And what kind of an impact willthat have on price?
And I understand like dealersdon't want to be caught with
(02:54):
these tariffed trucks.
In case the tariffs go away,how do you recover that tariff
surcharge that you paid the OEM?
Right.
Fleets feel the same.
They don't want to go and add10 trucks, pay a hefty tariff
surcharge on it, and then thosetariffs disappear and they've
overpaid.
So what does everyone do?
They sit and wait.
They wait, and with a softmarket, there's really not a
whole lot of demand to go outand add new trucks.
But what fleets are doing isthey're extending life cycles.
(03:17):
And that comes with a cost toothat I think a lot of people
overlook.
Jason Cuddy (03:20):
Yeah, that's a good point.
And I and we're seeing outhere, obviously the order intake
is is is lower, you know, forall the OEs, uh, not just not
just the ones we represent.
But you're definitely seeingit, that soft market and and
agreed, you know, we all thoughtwith the pre-buy, even Cummins
was going to pull some enginesforward a little bit quicker,
and they've you know they'veobviously changed the plans with
with the uncertainty with theEPA.
But you know, 27 there is stilltechnology coming.
But no one's loading up for youknow for this year like we
(03:42):
thought they would.
Um and yeah, and it's reallyuncertainty.
James Menzies (03:45):
And and that technology's already been paid
for by the OEMs.
Right.
I mean, they've been working onit for years.
They've invested hundreds ofmillions, if not a billion or
more, dollars into it.
They've done their seasonaltesting, their hot weather
testing, their cold weathertesting.
They're gonna want to recoupthat investment one way.
So I don't think thoseregulations will be completely
eliminated, but what they looklike by the time we hear, who
knows?
And here we are, weeks out from2027.
(04:07):
Yeah.
Jason Cuddy (04:08):
Well, and it's interesting, you talk about you
know, uh obviously people aredelaying the purchasing, which
you totally understand andtotally understandable within
this market.
The challenge is obviously ifyou're delaying the capital cost
of the purchase, you still havemaintenance repair costs, you
know, which don't necessarilydecrease as the vehicles get
older.
Those parts are still impactedby tariffs, so there's still is
a you know a cost to that.
And then what we're seeing nowwith with the newer technology,
(04:31):
uh, you know, with the OEs werepresent, but obviously
everyone does, is the newertechnology definitely seems to
be getting better fuel economy.
So there is almost a tippingpoint.
You gotta run some some reallythorough TCOs to really see if
holding on to equipment evenanother year, year and a half is
makes sense because the betweenthe fuel cost savings and some
other savings, you it may offsetwhat you think is to spend, but
you know, the capital costs upfront, which does hurt.
(04:53):
But there could be a quickerreturn to your investment than
if you kind of hold on toequipment for the year and a
half.
James Menzies (04:58):
Right.
And I'm not sure all fleetsthink that through on a
sophisticated level like that.
But um, if you get at a stepwith your traditional trade
cycles, it's not so easy to getback into step either.
So that that's something to beconsidered as well.
Yeah.
And I think the other concerntoo, obviously, if you hold on
to stuff as the market keepssoftening, you know, you're
gonna have companies that kindof you know go underwater and
you've got you know, fire salesand equipment, stuff going to
(05:20):
auction, so it reduces yourpotential revenue of the
trade-in values or to sell ofthe old equipment, which maybe
on the books are much higherthan what the market's gonna
bear too.
So there's a lot of factorsthat are very uncertain.
It seems like an easy solution.
Hang on to your equipmentlonger, sweat the asset, but
really it comes with a lot of alot of uh implications.
Jason Cuddy (05:35):
Yeah.
And you know, when we talkabout uncertainty, obviously the
biggest one is tariffs as wetalk here, you know, going into
20, going into 26, we we havesome line of sight to your
point.
You know, they're they want totariff uh equipment that's not
made in the USA, but obviouslythere's you know nuances and
asterisk to hold you know whatthat actually impacts and what
it affects.
So what do you what are youhearing from the different you
know between fleets and andother OEs as far as how they're
(05:58):
kind of managing through this?
James Menzies (06:00):
OEs are are trying to um near source as much
as they can, but there's onlyso much you can do.
And you look at they're they'reall great big global
manufacturers with manufacturingand suppliers, uh supplier base
that's around the world.
Right.
You know, I was at an eventrecently where where um one of
the leaders that come and saidit's just it's not the engine,
it's every little piece on theengine, it's every piece of
(06:20):
metal that comes from placesthat you know maybe we didn't
really pay a lot of attention tobefore, and now we have to try
to bring some of that productionto the United States.
When it comes to transmissions,um at the same event, uh a
speaker from Allison said, youknow, we don't even have the
forging equipment in the US thatwe need to make our
transmissions here.
Right.
And it would take years tosource that, secure it, bring it
(06:43):
here, and get it up andrunning.
So it's not like flickingflipping a switch for these
OEMs, and they're trying tofigure it out as they go because
the rules keep changing.
Jason Cuddy (06:50):
Yeah, it's a good point.
That's the challenge with it,right?
It's you know, the tariffs areobviously designed to bring you
know stuff back in-house, but itis what you're saying, it can't
just be done overnight.
There's some little things thatcan be done, and obviously most
of the OEs have you knowprobably one or two plants you
know within the U.S.
that they can then move stuffaround to meet production needs
for the US versus Canada and youknow into Mexico.
So you can you can play with itto a certain extent, but it is
(07:11):
it's a challenging, it's ajuggle, you know, for everyone
to figure out.
James Menzies (07:14):
Absolutely.
And at the same event, therewas a trailer manufacturer who
said, even if I do bringproduction to the U.S., I still
don't think I can get theworkforce.
Right.
Unemployment's still fairly lowthere.
The economy for now is hangingon.
And um it's not just it's notsample to produce everything
domestically within the withinthe borders of the United
States.
No.
Jason Cuddy (07:31):
I think that lesson will be learned at time, but
uh, well, it's a global supplychain for a reason, right?
It's kind of we we built upthat way, which but you know,
and driving all of thisuncertainty for you know the the
carriers obviously is rates.
You know, rates still seem tobe fairly depressed.
What's uh what are you hearingfrom from that world?
Yeah, you know, we're in um RFPseason now, and they're they're
(07:51):
starting to get some um someopportunities to bid, and uh
what I'm hearing from the thecarriers is that uh fleets are
are still not in the driver'sseat when it comes to rates.
Um shippers are still takingadvantage of the current market
and there's a lot of pressureunder rates still because
there's too much capacity.
And shippers are are willing totake advantage of that.
Um basically the publiclytraded fleets in the US, the big
(08:14):
guys were saying that they seereason for optimism in the
second half of 2026, but notbefore then, based on on what
they're seeing.
Some shippers, someforward-looking shippers are
beginning to look at locking incapacity because they know it
can't stay like this forever.
They know that it's um it's acyclical industry and eventually
the the pricing pendulum isgonna swing the other way.
Right.
And they all have shortmemories, but not so sure that
(08:36):
they don't remember what it waslike after COVID.
Right, fair.
So I mean I think some of thesmarter shippers will start to
to plan for the recovery, um,but we're not seeing it yet.
And even the spot market isit's still just sort of it's
steady at least.
It's not volatile.
True.
And there's freight to behauled, but it's not growing and
uh and the rates are are stilluh down on the dump.
Um the consensus from BobCostello, who's the the chief
(08:59):
economist at the AmericanTrucking Associations when he
spoke at at their conference wasthat this will not be a
demand-based recovery.
It's going to be acapacity-based recovery, which
is sad because that meansthere's going to be a lot of
bankruptcies and a lot of peoplethat that leave the industry
because they just can't make it.
Yeah, and you're seeing it, right?
I mean, there was, I think,something in the news yesterday,
you know, with within Canada,you know, a couple carriers that
(09:20):
are struggling.
Uh you saw a lot in the US,obviously.
And and I know there's, youknow, there's been a lot of
other, you know, undertones withhow carriers are set up and uh
things within the market thatyou know are driving that.
So some may welcome thatchange, some obviously don't.
But at the end of the day, it'sunfortunate because you you are
having carriers, you know, goout of business, um, but it will
then change the capacitydemands, which hopefully then
(09:40):
increases the rates and thendrives back some certainty and
some sort of stability back intothe industry for sure.
And the market doesn'tdiscriminate.
There will be good carriers,well-run carriers, as well as
poor-run carriers that aredriven out of the market in
these conditions.
Yeah.
Yeah, no fair.
And so you know, we talkedabout this last year.
It's funny because we you youmentioned the the forecast is
you know kind of flat untilsecond half of you know next
(10:01):
year, and then you know, maybe aa bit of a gradual rise.
And I think we said that thistime last year about this market
that we're in now.
We you know, it's it's beensteady, I guess.
It's been soft for sure, butit's been steady, steady
through.
There's been no real big peaks,there's been no pickup, you
know, as we're speaking now,nothing's really looking like
it's gonna you know jump throughthe end of the year.
James Menzies (10:20):
So um I was talking to a forecaster and I
referred to the the freightrecession, it corrected me and
said, No, no, James, there'sfreight.
It's not a freight recession,it's a rate recession.
Right.
Which is a different way tolook at it, but I think it makes
a lot of sense.
Yeah.
And you know, I the reason whythere's a lot of this optimism
coming from the big US carriersabout capacity leaving the
market is because there'scrackdown now on non-domiciled
(10:40):
CDL holders.
Right.
And these are people that don'tnecessarily live in the state
where they got their CDL.
Some states were more handingthem out more liberally than
others.
Some of them are not even legalresidents of the United States.
And now there's a a bigenforcement drive underway to
get these guys off the off theroad.
And we're hearing about um, youknow, checkpoints in Arkansas
and Illinois and other states.
(11:01):
And in addition to that, theylapse after two years.
So there's at least 200,000 ofthese licenses that are set to
lapse over the next two years.
Gotcha.
And that might be the catalystto get the capacity out of the
market that will lead tostronger rates.
And again, I think everyonewould rather it be a
market-based recovery wherefreight increases.
Um, because you know, it's kindof a tragic story to watch
(11:22):
unfold.
These are all humans with theirlives and livelihoods that are
being lost, but at the sametime, um, we probably never
should have been in thissituation in the first place
with that many unqualifieddrivers on the road.
Jason Cuddy (11:33):
No, fair.
And the challenge with it tooin the US is navigating, you
know, what what you're seeingfrom a federal level, like you
said there with the checkpoints.
But then even certain statesare kind of imposing or talking
to impose statewide regulationswith regards to, you know,
foreign drivers with a CDLlicense, whether it's Canadian
or Mexican, potentially, right?
Obviously, there's asterisk toall this.
But again, it goes back to thiswhole uncertainty as rates and
like it's it's all I thinkuncertainty is the biggest
(11:55):
navigator of all this.
James Menzies (11:57):
Yeah, we we talked last time about the
English language proficiencyrequirements, which was another
um thought that there was athought that that could take a
lot of capacity off the road.
We haven't really seen that.
Um and we haven't seen and theCanadian fleets I've talked to
haven't been overly affected bythat.
Um, some have had their driverstested.
I haven't heard of many thathave had them taken out of
service.
It seems like most of thatenforcement is happening in the
southern states along theMexican border.
Jason Cuddy (12:18):
Right.
James Menzies (12:19):
And the out of service rate, even though it's
supposed to be an automaticout-of-service, the out of
service rate of those that arefailing the English language
proficiency exams is actuallypretty low because a lot of
those drivers are only allowedto haul into the border zone
exchange, drop the trail and goright back to Mexico, and
they're not placing them out ofservice.
So that's not having the hugeimpact on capacity that we
thought it might.
Jason Cuddy (12:39):
Fair.
And I guess the one thing we'restill trying to gauge, and you
mentioned on it earlier, was youknow, is there a pre-buy for
27?
Because you know, now we are atthe tipping point where, yes,
with you know, some unknown EPAregulations, some things have
been dialed back, but as youmentioned, the OEs have invested
heavily into the 27 engines andthey're all going to be there
for Gen 27 production.
(13:00):
So, you know, what what do youhear there?
Do people think maybe this willbe the triggering event for a
pre-buy?
James Menzies (13:06):
It it's funny because the OEMs aren't asking
for this to be taken off thebooks.
They've already done the work,they've already spent the money.
Um, so who is the APA trying tocater to here um by casting so
much uncertainty over it?
Uh it's not the OEMs.
The OEMs want it to proceed.
I think where there could besome some leeway or some
flexibility that the OEMs wouldlike to see was the requirement
(13:27):
around the extended warranty ofthe after-treatment system
because that was adding a lot ofcost.
Right.
And if that can can be looseneda little bit or done away with
and they keep the existingwarranty on after-treatment
systems, um, then that willlessen the cost to the the fleet
and the end buyer.
So there are benefits to thenew technology, as there always
are.
Um I don't think there's gonnabe a huge step up in in fuel
(13:49):
economy this time around, butthere there should be some uh
improvements in performance fromfrom what we've heard from the
OEMs that have been doing thework.
So we just need answers.
And I I think all the OEMsagree.
We just tell us, tell us whatwe have to do when we have to do
it.
Um, because they're ready.
They're ready and they'vethey've made the investment, and
um, you know, fleets are gonnahave to start buying equipment
one way or the other.
Jason Cuddy (14:09):
Yeah.
And I think you'd think, youknow, when I look at it from our
end, like the soft touch pointsare the ones you could easily
kind of remove, like you said,right?
The engines are the engines,they're all in, they've invested
the RD money.
You know, they want that toproceed because they they put
the investment in, you know, thesoft touches, like the ext the
extended warranty coverage, uh,or even the quota amounts, say
you're running in California,you know, one you need by one EV
(14:29):
for X amount, credits for youknow uh internal combustion.
So those are things you canjust make go away.
Yeah you know, which which isand it doesn't impact the the
amount of research anddevelopment that's been done to
the engines, but yeah, theengines are coming either way,
but it would be nice just tohave some certainty as to you
know what what is required, whatis what is the mandate and you
know and how and what is thetime frame for it.
James Menzies (14:47):
Right.
That um that regulation, EPA27, um again, industry uh does
isn't asking for that to betaken off the table.
I think they were happy to seerevisions and changes to GHG3,
and that brought with it somemandates to sell more EVs.
Right.
And as a result of that goingaway, we're seeing a lot less EV
demand.
And you know, that was all therage for the last few years.
And here we are, um, you know,in certain applications, they
(15:10):
continue to be used and theycontinue to work well, but um, I
don't think we're going to seethe the wider spread pickup that
we might have thought a coupleyears ago.
Jason Cuddy (15:18):
No, I think the early adapters are in, yeah.
And um, you know, all the onesthat uh want to take advantage
of it have have done so and it'syou know seen how it works.
And I think everyone's stillkind of sitting on sidelines to
see what the ROI looks like onthat too, right?
Because it's you know, how longwill the batteries last?
What is the cost to replacethem?
What is the residual value ofthese vehicles when they hit the
open market after their usefullife within a fleet?
And that's still all unknown,right?
So I think everyone's just kindof hanging back and waiting.
(15:40):
And obviously, with all the EPAregulations, different
guidelines, and you know,incentives and credits kind of
coming and going, everyone's,you know, I think from any for
higher companies are definitelystill sitting back and waiting.
And you know, let's see whathappens with the first adopters
and then go from there.
And I I still haven't seen aTesla semi on the road up here.
Have you?
I have not seen one yet.
Or are we supposed to be saving50,000 a year or so by now?
Yeah.
I mean, you know, they'rerunning in the states, they do
(16:01):
well for what they do, but it'syou know, I think the class
eight is always still gonna beit's the infrastructure, really,
right?
It's it's the the the abilityto support the product outside
of just like it's coming homeevery night.
And I think that's why we'veseen the early adopters who are,
you know, the final mile cares.
I think those have been reallysuccessful, and those will make
a lot of sense.
You come home, you don't put alot of miles, there's no range
anxiety.
They idle a lot, so you take alot of wear and tear off an
(16:21):
engine.
So they're great fit for theEVs as far as what they do.
You know, the class eightstuff, you know, it it I'm sure
it has a purpose, and we've seenthem be successful in certain
areas, but definitely theinfrastructure's not at the same
pace as where they're pushingto get the you know, the class
eight stuff on the road.
James Menzies (16:37):
Right.
And you know, I'm not gonnawrite them off entirely because
how many times did the industrydip its toes in a natural gas
before finding a product thatactually works and suits the
needs, which they seem to haveright now in that uh 15 liter
Cummins?
So um, you know, maybe, maybethey'll pull back and maybe
again something else willhappen.
Great.
New government, who knows?
And then we might hear we mighthave round two of the the the
(16:58):
EV uh explosion.
Jason Cuddy (16:59):
Yeah, I know for sure.
So I guess based on that, Imean we don't seem to ever get
this dead on, but let's uh let'sgive it a shot.
What's what are we thinkingwe're looking like 26 gonna be?
Second half?
Yeah, that's a safe thing tosay, and that's what everyone
seems to be saying.
Yeah.
James Menzies (17:12):
Um, you know, no one's expecting a quick
turnaround.
So if you've made it this far,buckle in, stay buckled in, and
uh, you know, you're you'resurvivor.
This industry is so resilient.
Yes.
Uh it can't stay like thisforever.
It really can't.
And and some things to lookforward to.
You mentioned the fact thatthere's going to be a big
crackdown on on certain driversin the US.
That's gonna remove a lot ofcapacity from the roads.
(17:33):
Um, I heard someone say theother day it's gonna be more
than than the impact ofmandating ELDs.
Gotcha.
And that created a bit of acapacity crunch.
Uh, here in Canada, we just hada federal budget, our first
under Mark Carney, and and hecommitted a lot of money and had
a lot to say about crackingdown on on driver ink, the
misclassification of of drivers.
Right.
And I think in Canada, uh a lotof fleets are are wait, you're
(17:55):
gonna wait and see how muchteeth is the enforcement gonna
have, what are the fines gonnalook like?
Um, but the fact that it'sbeing addressed, I think, gives
some hope that maybe somecapacity will come out of Canada
too.
And it might be some of thosecompanies that don't necessarily
treat their drivers as theyshould.
And that could be a good thingfor the industry.
It could clean up the industry.
At the same time, it could putsome pressure on rates.
(18:15):
And maybe, maybe if thegovernment starts talking about
this, maybe shippers will startto pay attention to who they use
to all the freight.
Jason Cuddy (18:21):
Yeah, that's a good point.
So, yeah, it's a kind of a waitand see, maybe same as
predictions last year.
And you know, the you know, toyour point, this is a very, you
know, resilient industry.
It's very cyclical.
Like we've been through this.
It, you know, it goes down, itgoes up, it goes down.
That's the you know, it'sconstant.
It's just the factors thatcause the up and down are always
different.
But um, yeah, to your point, Ithink if you're in it and you're
getting through, hang on.
(18:42):
You know, there there will belight down tunnel.
We just need to get get therates established, kind of get
get some market certainty inplace, and then you know, we we
should be good to go.
James Menzies (18:51):
Uh I think we've at the very least reached the
floor.
No one sees it getting worse,even if they don't see it
getting better right away.
Good point.
Jason Cuddy (18:56):
Yeah.
So well, we'll hang and see.
We'll do this again in sixmonths and see how accurate
we're on that one.
Yeah.
James Menzies (19:01):
We've got a perfect track record, right?
Jason Cuddy (19:03):
Exactly.
Perfect.
Well, thanks for doing thisagain with us.
I appreciate it.
It's always fun.
Yes.
And that concludes today'sepisode.
To catch past episodes, checkout transportation exchange
podcast.ca.
Until next time, thanks forwatching.
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The Burden
The Burden is a documentary series that takes listeners into the hidden places where justice is done (and undone). It dives deep into the lives of heroes and villains. And it focuses a spotlight on those who triumph even when the odds are against them. Season 5 - The Burden: Death & Deceit in Alliance On April Fools Day 1999, 26-year-old Yvonne Layne was found murdered in her Alliance, Ohio home. David Thorne, her ex-boyfriend and father of one of her children, was instantly a suspect. Another young man admitted to the murder, and David breathed a sigh of relief, until the confessed murderer fingered David; “He paid me to do it.” David was sentenced to life without parole. Two decades later, Pulitzer winner and podcast host, Maggie Freleng (Bone Valley Season 3: Graves County, Wrongful Conviction, Suave) launched a “live” investigation into David's conviction alongside Jason Baldwin (himself wrongfully convicted as a member of the West Memphis Three). Maggie had come to believe that the entire investigation of David was botched by the tiny local police department, or worse, covered up the real killer. Was Maggie correct? Was David’s claim of innocence credible? In Death and Deceit in Alliance, Maggie recounts the case that launched her career, and ultimately, “broke” her.” The results will shock the listener and reduce Maggie to tears and self-doubt. This is not your typical wrongful conviction story. In fact, it turns the genre on its head. It asks the question: What if our champions are foolish? Season 4 - The Burden: Get the Money and Run “Trying to murder my father, this was the thing that put me on the path.” That’s Joe Loya and that path was bank robbery. Bank, bank, bank, bank, bank. In season 4 of The Burden: Get the Money and Run, we hear from Joe who was once the most prolific bank robber in Southern California, and beyond. He used disguises, body doubles, proxies. He leaped over counters, grabbed the money and ran. Even as the FBI was closing in. It was a showdown between a daring bank robber, and a patient FBI agent. Joe was no ordinary bank robber. He was bright, articulate, charismatic, and driven by a dark rage that he summoned up at will. In seven episodes, Joe tells all: the what, the how… and the why. Including why he tried to murder his father. Season 3 - The Burden: Avenger Miriam Lewin is one of Argentina’s leading journalists today. At 19 years old, she was kidnapped off the streets of Buenos Aires for her political activism and thrown into a concentration camp. Thousands of her fellow inmates were executed, tossed alive from a cargo plane into the ocean. Miriam, along with a handful of others, will survive the camp. Then as a journalist, she will wage a decades long campaign to bring her tormentors to justice. Avenger is about one woman’s triumphant battle against unbelievable odds to survive torture, claim justice for the crimes done against her and others like her, and change the future of her country. Season 2 - The Burden: Empire on Blood Empire on Blood is set in the Bronx, NY, in the early 90s, when two young drug dealers ruled an intersection known as “The Corner on Blood.” The boss, Calvin Buari, lived large. He and a protege swore they would build an empire on blood. Then the relationship frayed and the protege accused Calvin of a double homicide which he claimed he didn’t do. But did he? Award-winning journalist Steve Fishman spent seven years to answer that question. This is the story of one man’s last chance to overturn his life sentence. He may prevail, but someone’s gotta pay. The Burden: Empire on Blood is the director’s cut of the true crime classic which reached #1 on the charts when it was first released half a dozen years ago. Season 1 - The Burden In the 1990s, Detective Louis N. Scarcella was legendary. In a city overrun by violent crime, he cracked the toughest cases and put away the worst criminals. “The Hulk” was his nickname. Then the story changed. Scarcella ran into a group of convicted murderers who all say they are innocent. They turned themselves into jailhouse-lawyers and in prison founded a lway firm. When they realized Scarcella helped put many of them away, they set their sights on taking him down. And with the help of a NY Times reporter they have a chance. For years, Scarcella insisted he did nothing wrong. But that’s all he’d say. Until we tracked Scarcella to a sauna in a Russian bathhouse, where he started to talk..and talk and talk. “The guilty have gone free,” he whispered. And then agreed to take us into the belly of the beast. Welcome to The Burden.