Credit Risk: The Looming U.S. Credit Crisis.

How much credit risk is in the market? Equities get the headlines but the world runs on credit. Jamie Dimon recently declared that credit was a “bad risk” on the heels of Moody’s downgrading the U.S. credit rating and a spike in the 10 Year Treasury yield. Suddenly, the boring old credit and bond markets are all the rage on the financial news channels, and it goes much deeper than treasuries. Today’s episode examines the scope of the global credit market and unpacks the difference between the systemic threat posed in the global financial crisis (GFC) and the looming credit crisis today. And, it shows how the big corporations prepared for the gathering storm by rewriting the rules of the game after the GFC. The big guys are fairly insulated from any sort of looming credit shock, but the rest of us are pretty much toast.

Access the episode resources.

Chapters

Intro: 00:01:00

Post Show Musings: 00:28:25

Outro: 00:33:39

Resources

Moody’s: Moody’s Ratings downgrades United States ratings to Aa1 from Aaa; changes outlook to stable

Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Household Debt and Credit Report

Federal Reserve Bank of New York: The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates

Coleman Report: Small Business Loan Defaults Expected to Peak Next Year

Offshoring

Lincoln International LLC: Q1 2025 Lincoln Private Market Index™

Investopedia: Payment-in-Kind (PIK): What It Is, How It Works, Pros and Cons

Axios: Americans are behind on car payments at a record level

MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase Slightly in the First Quarter of 2025

HBR: U.S. Commercial Real Estate Is Headed Toward a Crisis 

J.P. Morgan Private Bank U.S.: Municipal Bonds: Back in the Spotlight

U.S. Department of the Treasury: Treasury International Capital Data for March

Everything Policy: Where are the key Panama Papers figures, seven years later?

Secondaries Investor: Yale sells up to $6bn of its PE portfolio amid federal funding challenge

NBER: The Offshore World According to FATCA: New Evidence on the Foreign Wealth of U.S.

Peter Lang Publishing: Hip Hop Can Save America!

UNFTR Episode Resources

The U.S. Dollar and 10 Year Treasury.

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