"Night Over Waters: The Change of Course"

Focus: The crucial moments between 12:42 and

12:52 when the flight path was altered.

• Discussion Points:
• Detailed timeline of communications and autopilot settings.
• Analysis of why the flight path was changed to IGARI waypoint.
• The role of human error vs. mechanical failure in the altered course.

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Welcome back to Vanish Skies, the MH370 mystery.

(00:03):
I'm Ed Skerritt here with Marilyn Skerritt,
and today we are diving into Episode 2,
Night Overwaters, The Change of Course.
Thanks, Ed.
Tonight, we focus on a critical 10-minute window
that might hold the key to understanding
the mysterious course change of MH370.
From 1242 to 1252,
a series of crucial decisions and actions took place

(00:24):
that drastically altered the fate of this flight.
That's right.
At 1242, air traffic control issued a significant instruction.
They canceled the Standard Instrument Departure,
or SID, that MH370 was initially supposed to follow.
This is not just a routine change.
It's a complex procedure that requires careful input

(00:44):
and execution, especially given the conditions and timing.
And here's where it gets particularly concerning.
The first officer who was still undergoing training
and hadn't yet fully qualified for the Boeing 777
was tasked with this critical job.
According to the factual report,
he hadn't completed his certification tests,
a point that raises serious questions about his readiness

(01:07):
to handle such unexpected instructions.
Absolutely, Maryland.
Changing a flight path involves recalculating routes,
waypoints, and potentially communicating
with multiple air traffic controls.
For an experienced pilot, this is part of the job.
But for a first officer still in training,
the stakes are immeasurably higher.
This is the most dangerous part of flying,

(01:29):
not just navigating by instruments,
but also ensuring that every new input
into the flight management system is correct.
A single error, a mistyped waypoint,
or a miscommunication with ground control
could have catastrophic results.
And let's paint a picture of what this situation
might have looked like.
One minute into the flight, under 10,000 feet,

(01:49):
in the beginning of the climb phase of flight,
the captain is pilot flying.
Let's not forget what we talked about
in episode one pilot in training.
I want to remind our listeners,
the first officer on his last day of training,
now flying solo, his position,
responsible for monitoring the controls
while the captain is actively flying plane

(02:11):
during the heavy workload in the climb phase of flight.
Then, before you know it,
the air traffic controller contacts your plane.
Malation 370, Suma bagi, identify climb flyable 180,
and send the same direct to Hikari.
Okay, level 180, Hikari, Malation 1, 370.

(02:31):
The instructions come in,
and now, under immense pressure,
the first officer must execute changes
that he might not have been fully prepared to handle.
It's 1242 AM, the cockpit glows
under the soft luminescence of control panel lights,
a stark contrast to the clear visibility
of daytime operations.
Exactly, so listeners,

(02:52):
imagine the cockpit at this moment,
the pilot focusing on flying the aircraft manually,
since the autopilot would be disengaged during such a change,
the first officer frantically reprogramming the flight path
towards a new waypoint, Hikari.
It's a tense, precarious situation,
and this brings us to the heart of today's episode.
What are the odds that these changes

(03:14):
were executed flawlessly
given the first officer's untested skills?
And if not, could this have been the moment
where things went wrong for MH370?
That's what we're here to explore.
We'll delve deeper into the mechanics of such changes,
what the standard protocols are,
and how deviations from these can lead to errors

(03:35):
when we discuss episode five,
waypoints to nowhere, navigational quirks.
Stay with us as we unpack these details and more
here on Vanished Skies.
Thanks for tuning in, everyone.
This episode promises to shed light
on some of the most technically challenging aspects
of commercial aviation
and how they might play a role
in one of the biggest mysteries in modern history.

(03:57):
Marilyn, let's do a quick recap of this episode.
We navigate through the 10 pivotal minutes
following the unexpected directive
to cancel the standard instrument departure, SID,
with the night sky as their backdrop,
the flight crew face the daunting task
of recalibrating their route,
a challenge compounded by the nocturnal setting

(04:18):
which transforms the familiar dials and screens
into a tableau of shadows and lights.
Welcome back to Vanished Skies, the MH370 mystery.
I'm Marilyn joined by Ed,
and you're listening to episode two,
Night Over Waters, The Change of Course.
In this episode, we're dissecting the crucial 10 minutes
between 1242 and 1252 AM

(04:40):
when MH370's fate took a mysterious turn.
That's right, Marilyn.
Last we discussed, at 1242 AM,
air traffic control issued a directive to MH370
to cancel their standard instrument departure, or SID.
This required immediate action in the cockpit,
action that fell on the first officer
who crucially was still under training.

(05:02):
And as we dive deeper into those 10 minutes,
we'll also examine the Rolls-Royce Engine
monitoring reports.
These were pivotal in providing real-time data
on the aircraft's condition.
The first of these reports came in at exactly 1241-58,
just seconds before the course changed directive.
Exactly, this initial report indicated
that the autopilot was off,

(05:24):
confirming that the captain was manually flying the plane.
The altitude at takeoff was recorded at 344 feet.
Why does this matter?
Well, it sets the stage.
It shows us the starting conditions
just as this sequence of events began to unfold.
So if we look at the appendix in the factual report,
specifically 1.6B, it decodes this data for us.

(05:47):
The AP column, which stands for autopilot,
shows a zero at this time,
indicating that the autopilot was indeed off.
This is crucial because it tells us
that every adjustment to the flight's path
had to be input manually.
The stakes couldn't have been higher.
At 1250-221, the second engine report comes through,
this time showing the autopilot was turned on,

(06:10):
with the plane now at an altitude of 22,278 feet.
This rise in altitude and the switching on of the autopilot
suggests that by this point,
the first officer might have completed the necessary inputs
to direct the plane towards the new waypoint, EGARI,
marking a significant, yet mysterious shift
in their intended route.

(06:30):
And here's where it gets interesting.
According to aviation protocols,
a flight plan doesn't fully commit
until the aircraft passes its first waypoint.
In MH370's case, this was supposed to be EGARI,
but the plane never continued towards Beijing,
it turned committing to a new uncharted path.
Beijing could have been the moment of no return,

(06:50):
with the destination still set as Beijing,
the diversion to a new route raises countless questions.
What was happening in that cockpit?
What led to that pivotal decision?
As we peel back the layers of this mystery,
we're left considering the implications of these findings.
Was it confusion?
Was it a calculated move?
Or something entirely unexpected?

(07:11):
Hold that thought,
as we'll explore these possibilities
and more in our upcoming segments.
Stay with us as we continue to navigate
through the night over waters,
tracing the echoes left by MH370.
It's a journey for answers, for understanding,
and perhaps, for closure.
Ed, moving into the second half of episode two,

(07:31):
let's discuss the Rolls-Royce engine monitoring reports.
It's such a crucial piece of the puzzle in the MH370 mystery.
Absolutely, Marilyn.
For our listeners, these reports provide real-time data
on the aircraft's engines.
In MH370's case,
they told us how the plane continued to fly
even after the transponders ceased transmissions.

(07:51):
Right, and this contradicts the theory
that MH370 suffered a catastrophic mid-air failure.
The engines were running,
suggesting the plane was intact and under someone's control.
That's the key, isn't it?
These reports offer insights into the aircraft's health.
If MH370 deviated from its path,
it wasn't because of engine failure.
Yes, and the articles from Forbes and other outlets

(08:12):
have emphasized that.
If there was a manual input to change the course,
the engine's status would reflect that, wouldn't they?
Exactly.
Rolls-Royce engines are like the pulse of the aircraft,
giving us a heartbeat.
This data could have potentially indicated
if the plane faced problems,
or if everything was operating as expected.
It seems the engines were functioning normally,

(08:33):
which intensifies the mystery.
What's your take on how this data was interpreted
by the investigators, Ed?
I think it's a matter of connecting the dots, Marilyn.
These reports are timestamps of the plane's fate.
If we align them with the last known positions
and the satellite pings...
We could track where MH370 could have gone post-diversion.

(08:54):
It's like a breadcrumb trail left for us to follow.
Precisely, and these breadcrumbs don't just tell us
about the plane's path,
but also its performance.
Was it climbing? Was it descending?
Was the fuel consumption as it should be?
All vital questions.
And let's not forget, these engine reports
are sent at regular intervals to ground stations,
so we're looking at a sequence of data points,

(09:16):
not just a single moment in time.
Which brings us to the bigger question.
If the plane was functioning and the engines were running,
why was it turned away from its path to Beijing?
What do you think, Marilyn?
That's the million-dollar question, Ed.
And I think our listeners would agree
that this is where the role of human intervention
comes into play.
It wasn't just a plane lost to the skies.

(09:37):
It was a plane led off course.
We'll delve deeper into these engine reports
and what they could mean for MH370 in a later segment.
But for now, it seems clear that the plane's engines
were telling us a story that no one expected to hear.
It's staggering, Ed, the level of scrutiny
that goes into a flight before takeoff.
Looking at MH370, there's a routine that unfolds,

(09:59):
a procedure.
But so many questions still linger around that.
Yes, Marilyn and those questions lead us
straight to the heart of the mystery.
Let's zero in on the timeline.
The captain signs in at 10.50 p.m.,
but it's the first officer's timing that peaks my interest.
25 minutes later, I believe it's the captain's responsibility
to confirm flight plan, order the correct fuel,

(10:22):
inspect the plane, check weight and balance,
weather, who's required to do what?
Since the captain is ultimately the one in charge of the flight,
he is the one who ultimately will be to blame
for anything that goes wrong in the flight,
whether it's intentional or unintentional.
And the question that stands out is the first officer
who's still training to transition from Airbus to Boeing

(10:45):
adequately prepared for this flight.
Was it his last day of training or an examination day?
The lines are blurred.
What exactly are the requirements of a first officer pre-flight?
What exactly are the requirements of a captain
and the examination of the first officer training?
Blurred indeed.
You mentioned the equipment transition.

(11:05):
I find that a crucial point.
Switching from Airbus to Boeing isn't a simple feat.
It's like rewiring your brain from Mac to PC.
And under pressure, that's where mistakes happen.
Right, you are.
And those small mistakes can have cascading effects.
Now, the crew had their pre-flight rituals,
which includes a series of checks.
At 11.55 p.m., the plane undergoes satellite tests, data tests,

(11:28):
all while still at the gate.
That brings us to another critical moment, takeoff.
At 12.41 p.m. 58 a.m., the Rolls-Royce report shows the plane
headed from Malaysia to Beijing with the autopilot off.
This matches with the plane's pre-takeoff status.
But Ed, here comes the pivotal change.
They're cleared for Beijing via P-Bos,
but then ATC instructs a change to Igari.

(11:51):
Post, takeoff.
Why?
What was the urgency or the need to alter the route so suddenly?
Mostly likely to save fuel.
Maryland, that's where every aviator's ears perk up.
Changing course right after takeoff is not standard.
It's risky, and it's usually avoided unless absolutely necessary.
This makes you wonder, doesn't it?
If the first officer is in the hot seat,

(12:12):
handling the flight management system for the first time on a Boeing,
was this switch to Igari too much too soon?
Could be.
And let's consider this.
The destination remains Beijing, according to the Rolls-Royce data.
If the plane was following the altered path to Igari,
it was still on a programmed route, not a rogue flight.
It lays out an unsettling scenario.

(12:33):
A perfect storm of procedural deviations and potential human error
on what should have been a routine flight to Beijing.
Exactly, and these are the moments, these 10 crucial minutes,
where MH370's fate veered off into the unknown.
This isn't just about finding a missing aircraft,
it's about unraveling a sequence that led to one of aviation's biggest enigmas.
It's a discussion that deserves more than just time.

(12:55):
It demands deep analysis, and that's what we're here for.
Stay with us as we continue to dissect these pre- and post-takeoff changes
and what they mean for MH370.
In a later episode, we'll be looking at what should have been a routine handover
to air traffic control, but instead became a mystery.
This is where the path changed, and so did the fate of MH370.

(13:16):
As we look toward the horizon of our next episode,
echoes in the ocean decoding satellite pings,
we delve into the silent whispers from space
that could unravel the flight path of MH370.
We'll dissect the satellite pings, what do they reveal,
what's left unsaid, and the enigma of the uncompleted ping.
Did it signal a low-fuel emergency?

(13:38):
Could it have stirred the crew back to consciousness?
We'll sift through the satellite data,
piecing together the puzzle that challenges the theories we've grappled with.
Looking further ahead, episode 4, a pilot, a hijacker, or a ghost
will navigate the stormy debate over pilot intent versus unexpected intervention.
Was it an act of deliberate disappearance, a breach of security,

(14:00):
or an abrupt end met by an unseen catastrophic failure?
We'll dive into the numbers, aviation accidents, crew errors, psychological profiles,
all in the quest for an answer.
Then, in episode 5, Waypoints to Nowhere, navigational quirks,
we scrutinize the Waypoint Dogar and its role in the narrative.

(14:22):
Could similar-sounding waypoints have misled MH370?
We'll discuss ICAO's efforts to declutter the skies for navigational clarity
and attempt to reconstruct the vanished flight's path through these critical aerial crossroads.
And with that, we reach the end of another episode.
Our journey through the enigma of this aviation mystery is far from over.

(14:43):
We're here to ask the hard questions, to analyze every detail,
and to possibly draw nearer to the elusive truth of what really transpired with MH370.
So stay with us, keep that dial tuned.
I'm Ed Scarrett, alongside my co-host, Marilyn Scarrett,
and you've been listening to Vanished Skies, episode 2, Night Over Waters, The Change of Course,

(15:06):
the truth behind the dialogue we need in solving Malaysian flight 370.
Thank you for joining us, and we hope you'll be with us next time,
as we continue to unravel the mystery that has captivated the world. Good night.