Jackson Hole Speech Could Make or Break the Market This Fall | Weekly Business Briefs w/ Martin Perdomo

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The economic landscape is sending mixed signals to wealth builders, and your strategic positioning needs to account for these crosscurrents. Home Depot's recent earnings miss reveals a telling shift in consumer behavior that directly impacts your investment strategy. With net sales falling short at $45.28 billion and a 2.2% decline in foot traffic, consumers are clearly pulling back from large renovations in favor of small maintenance projects. This isn't just about one retailer's performance—it's a broader indicator of how rate sensitivity is reshaping spending patterns across markets.

The spotlight now turns to Federal Reserve Chair Powell's upcoming Jackson Hole speech, potentially the most consequential market event this season. Markets have already priced in an 83% probability of a September rate cut, but the real question remains: will Powell signal a dovish turn or maintain a cautious stance? Treasury officials and political figures are pushing for aggressive cuts between 150-400 basis points, yet the Fed's independence will ultimately determine the path forward. Make no mistake—analysts warn that without clear dovish signals, markets could slide 7-15% this fall, making your defensive positioning critical right now.

Meanwhile, the S&P's reaffirmation of the US AA+ credit rating offers temporary fiscal reassurance, with tariff revenue estimated to contribute up to $2.8 trillion, offsetting recent spending increases. However, persistent deficits exceeding 100% of GDP remain a long-term vulnerability. The rating agency explicitly cited Federal Reserve independence as the strongest defense against future downgrades—a powerful reminder that monetary policy autonomy directly impacts market stability. Whether you're repositioning for potential rate cuts, adjusting exposure to consumer cyclicals, or monitoring fiscal developments, staying informed and strategically nimble will be your greatest advantage in capitalizing on the opportunities ahead.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:02):
Welcome back to the Wealthy AF Business Brief, where
we break down the headlinesthat matter for entrepreneurs,
investors and builders ofgenerational wealth.
I'm your host, the elitestrategist Martin Perdomo, and
today's global news has directimplications for your wallet,
your deals and your strategicmolds.

(00:23):
Home Depot is struggling.
Demand for big ticket purchasesare slipping.
All eyes are on Fed Chair, jayPowell's final Jackson Hole
speech.
Rate cuts may be coming or hemay pump the brakes.
And finally, the S&P justreaffirmed the US AA plus credit

(00:46):
rating, betting that tariffsrevenue can compensate for
recent fiscal expansion.
Whether you're repositioningportfolios or watching for the
next big policy signal, thisepisode is for you.
Let's break it down.
You, let's break it down.

(01:12):
Home Depot just missedexpectations for its second
quarter earnings.
Net sales clocked in at $45.28billion just shy of the $45.36
billion analysts forecastedbillion analysts forecasted

(01:32):
while earnings per share came inat $4.68, slightly below the
$4.71 estimate.
What's behind the miss?
The consumer is pulling backfrom large renovations.
Homeowners are favoring smalldo-it-yourself maintenance
projects over financedbig-ticket upgrades like
kitchens and bathrooms.
This makes total sense.

(01:52):
As home demand slows way down,construction slows way down Just
total sense.
If you listened to my realestate market update last week.
You'll know and if you've beenlistening to my market update
real estate market update you'llknow that real estate is in a

(02:13):
slump right at this moment forhouse sales.
When house sales slow downthere's a direct correlation
with Home Depot slowing down.
Home Depot's foot traffic fell2.2% year on year and CEO Ted
Decker says the deferral mindsetis still in play.
Tariffs are beginning to bitetoo.

(02:35):
Some products, particularlyimported goods like garden
chemicals, will see modest priceincreases, he said.
Still, the retailer isremaining to keep most pricing
steady thanks to diversifyingsources and more than 50
domestic supply.
So I can tell you from personalexperience we are remodeling a

(02:58):
huge project right now, alsoowning a construction company in
pennsylvania and runningconstruction crews.
They are right, and we buy andwe source most of our product
through Home Depot.
We haven't seen a big priceincrease in much of our products
.
We saw a little brief of aprice increases in our
appliances for a short while,I'm going to say from January to

(03:22):
like March or so, and then wewent right back down to our
regular pricing.
So I think that was more so ofthe scare of the tariffs and all
of that stuff, but we got ourpricing back For investors if
you're exposed to cyclical orbig ticket retail reinforce
strategies around consumerprudence and rate sensitivity.

(03:44):
Home Depot results signalcaution not collapse, but clear
headwinds for discretionaryspending.
Now, like I said, if you'rewatching the data, you expect
this.
Home Depot executives know thisright.
You see housing demand dropping.
You see not a lot of hotpurchasing power.
They correlate with one another.

(04:04):
This is what happens this week.
All eyes are on Jackson Hole.
Jay Powell's speech may indicatewhether rate cuts are imminent
or Fed is steering cautiouslyahead.
Markets are currently pricingin an 83% chance of a 25 basis
point cut in September.

(04:25):
Now the markets are doing that.
Chase, jpmorgan.
Chase had a 94% chance.
Now the markets are saying 83%chance.
And the truth of the matter iswe need a bigger cut, j-pal.
We need a 50 basis point ratecut so you can really get things
moving again.
This is going to be we'reexpecting, with up to five cuts

(04:49):
expected through 2026, butthere's pressure.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessonand President Trump want much
more aggressive easing.
Hey, so do I.
From 150 to 400 basis points.
Me too, I'm with Besson and I'mwith Powell.
I'm a through and through realestate investor.
I'm a through and throughentrepreneur.
We need lower rates.

(05:10):
We need it now.
I'm in real estate.
We need it now.
The market needs it, businessesneed it, families need it,
americans need it.
You're paying more on yourcredit cards.
We need it now.
You're paying more on yourcredit cards.
We need it now.
You're too late, always, alwaystoo late.
Bro, you need to cut rates now.
That is 100% my opinion.
It's my podcast.

(05:31):
I can give my opinion.
Jay Powell, cut the interestrates now.
Brother, you're hurting us.
Everyone warns that if JayPowell doesn't deliver dovish
cues, markets could slide 7% to15% this fall.
This article is saying what I'msaying.

(05:52):
Elevated equity valuation,softened job data and inflation
uncertainty make Jackson Hole apotential inflection.
Point Powell.
I'm not going to say more onthis.
Cut the rate, bro.
Cut the rate.
Just cut the rate.
Okay, just give us 50 basis, 75basis points.

(06:13):
It's what we need right now toget things to start, getting
things moving again.
Powell's tone here could makeor break the short-term market.
A caution stance might shakeinvestors' confidence for sure.
A clear dovish shift couldre-anchor expectations of
sustained easing.

(06:33):
Either way, have defensive orselective growth positioning
Ready.
In a surprising twist, the S&Preaffirmed the US sovereign
credit rating at a double A plus, citing strong tariff revenue
as the key stabilizer againstnew fiscal expansion under the

(06:55):
one big beautiful Bill Act.
I love that bill because there'sa lot of advantages in that
bill for entrepreneurs, forAmericans.
Actually, the average Americanno longer pays taxes on overtime
.
There is no more taxes on tipsand wages.

(07:15):
Yeah, there were some thingscut.
The thing is this, guys if youlearn how, if you educate
yourself on this bill, you cantake advantage of it.
The problem is, most peoplearen't educated.
They don't educate themselveson this bill.
You can take advantage of it.
The problem is, most peoplearen't educated.
They don't educate themselveson the bill, so they don't know
how to take advantage on it.
If you're a real estate investor, I want to give myself a quick

(07:35):
plug here.
I actually studied this billand created an e-book.
If you go to my IG to add theElite Strategist and you go to
my homepage, there's a linkthere that you can download this
ebook on how you can takeadvantages the advantages for
real estate investors, if you'reinvesting in real estate.
I make it real simple, realplain, jane Vanilla, simple for

(07:57):
you to understand.
I give you real lifeexperiences examples, I'm sorry,
real life examples on how thiscould work and it's real simple.
Go check it out at the EliteStrategist on IG.
Tariffs this year havecontributed significantly,
estimated to add as much as $2.8trillion in net revenue,

(08:19):
offsetting some of thatadditional spending.
Yet caution remains.
Persistent deficits alreadyexceeding 100% of GDP and
political instability couldthreaten the US fiscal health if
the Fed's independence iscompromised.

(08:39):
S&p explicitly called the Fed'sautonomy the best defense
against a downgrade.
So basically, the S&P issuggesting that we need to keep
that.
The Feds need to stayindependent.
I don't know if I have athought on how I feel about that

(09:00):
.
I suppose it's a good idea tohave the feds independent.
Just sometimes I just don'tagree with the feds moves, even
when they lower rates too muchand too hard and too fast.
Right, jay Powell, back in 20,?
If you've been listening to mypodcast, you remember Jay Powell
committed 21.
He committed to not loweringrates until the end of not

(09:23):
increasing rates.
Excuse me, rate until the endof Not increasing rates.
Excuse me, not increasing ratesuntil the end of 2021.
Four lies, lies on lies.
This is why you cannot believewhat these guys are telling you
and you have to be studying andpaying attention to what they're
doing, not what they're saying,because look at where we are.

(09:44):
He started increasing the ratesin January of 2022.
And yet now here we are.
Now here we are.
Okay, 7% rates for mortgages.
He doubled the freakinginterest rates in a year, so
lies, and I understand he had toadopt in real time as inflation

(10:06):
was.
I get all that, I get all that,but still you got to pay
attention to what they're doing,not just what they're saying.
I'm watching both.
I'm watching what they're doing, not just what they're saying.
I'm watching both.
I'm watching what you're saying, jay Powell.
I'm watching what thepoliticians are saying and I'm
also, more importantly, watchingwhat you are doing.

(10:28):
Take note investors Fiscal riskhasn't gone away, but markets
see tariffs revenue as atemporary balance.
If deficit assumptions shift orthe Fed loses credibility, the
outlook could change fast.
Keep duration risk monitored.
To recap retail is stillmoderating.

(10:49):
Home Depot missed signals.
Continued caution amongstconsumers.
Fiscal health has a short-termboy, but long-term risk remains.
If you're serious aboutbuilding wealth and real
strategy, come hang with me onInstagram at the Elite
Strategist.
I'm breaking down in real timedeal flows, wealth building

(11:11):
plays, deal flows, wealthbuilding plays, market tactics
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Check it out at wealthyafmediaand let's get you positioned to

(11:36):
win now.
Stay sharp, stay informed, stayfocused, because the future
looks super bright.
Peace out.
This is the Wealthy AF BusinessBrief Later.