Episode Transcript
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(00:00):
Welcome to your financial advocate with Greg Dupont
from Dupont Wealth Solutions
as a practicing advisor and attorney. Greg teaches
pre retirees how to reduce debt and taxes
and save with less risk, so they have
more spend income and plan their way to
a better life
Join us for this journey where Greg draws
on years of experience and guest experts to
(00:23):
help listeners achieve more spend income for retirement.
If
Hello, and welcome to the Ur Financial Advocate
podcast.
Today's presentation is part 2 of the 2
part presentation based upon a recent webinar that
I did. Regarding the state of the market.
First
episode that we had here talked about what
happened in the market to this point in
time. Today, you're gonna listen to my presentation
(00:45):
about what I expect the future look like?
What's the next 06:12 months look like what
the implications of the
financial and the financial implications or the political
situation,
elections, you know, what that all looks like,
how it may impact you in your future.
So I hope you find this information constructive,
If you wish to have access to the
(01:06):
slides that we had in the presentation. Please
feel free to reach out to my team
or check us out on the Youtube channel.
So you can see the video there. Take
care.
So so what's ahead? The second half of
2024.
Again,
when we look at these numbers, we look
at the pooling
of market experts.
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I'm not an economist,
I just look for data.
That they go through, at the comedy, the
the dismal science they call it. Right? So
if you they... If you look at
the same economist that missed the federal reserve
of Philadelphia use.
This is what they're projecting
between now and 20 25,
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midway, call it, between now and next summer.
Well,
the median
for growth
Gdp
is between 1.5 and 2.4.
Unemployment rate, they're looking about 3.7
to 4.2,
Core inflation between 2 and 2.4.
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So again, these are the numbers that are
instructing the fed on what they're gonna deal.
And these all look like they're pretty good.
When I talked about a major market correction,
I talk in terms of some form of
black swan event that causes it, not
a structural,
a
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gradual decline.
Yes. That's what happened with the dot com
crisis. That's what happened
with 09:11. That's what happened with
Covid.
Things like these happen.
Now,
as I mentioned before,
the market's supposed to reflect
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the value
of the company's earnings going forward what the
market expects that to be.
The efficient market hypothesis says that that reflects
all known information about the companies.
And I also told you that the S
and P 500 is really just this a
this
approximation.
Shows them by standard and poor to represent
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what they believe is the
top companies
in the Us.
Which they can put people and take people
out. So that's subject to some manipulation, but
that's no story for another day. Here's what
I wanna share with you today
about that.
This graph is showing you on the bottom
line,
What are the earnings of the companies in
(03:36):
the S and p if 500.
The top line is showing you what's the
market valuation the s and p 500.
And you see how much of our divergence
there is currently
from history.
How much more over valued?
As I mentioned in that prior slide about
the shi price earnings index. This is showing
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you
how drastically
diver
we are
with known
profits.
And so what this a saying is
The
expectation
of higher profits in the future is significantly
higher than has been in the past.
At least from that theory.
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And year to date,
there have been stronger
earnings reports for most companies than were expected.
So there is some basis there for that,
I don't know if it's this much basis.
So a matter of fact,
I believe it's not.
I believe when we look about the S
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and P 500 right now, specifically,
it's being driven
by what has been called the magnificent step.
And by the way, just about every boom
season has an equivalents of the magnificent 7.
These just have with me the ones that
that are running the show right now.
Microsoft, apple,
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alphabet,
Amazon, Video, Meta,
Tesla,
and ask yourself,
those valuations of those companies at this point
in time
is this...
A baseline
that they can grow off of
significantly?
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Or
is this maybe a high point
the thing come down from.
And we're not talking about any particular companies
in terms of a recommendation for you, but
do you need to understand the way this
works
in your portfolio.
Because whether you know it or not, you
probably have huge holdings of these companies in
your portfolio,
and we've seen this again and again and
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again over time,
that
the major driving companies,
think about Ge.
G was was the crown prince
and then they collapsed.
Think about
the big the big 3 automotive companies the
seventies. K. Those these things happened. They were
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the leaders.
And they cycle out.
So
I'm not saying
Video,
Microsoft Apple, blah blah blah blah, it's gonna
crap out now.
But
there are are signs that some of the
smart money is starting to rotate their money
out of there.
But most
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money managers for consumer
investments,
you,
they don't have the the ability.
Shall always we say the runway
to to take some of this money out.
Because that hurts their performance potentially.
Short term.
Long term, and maybe just what's needed to
(06:50):
protect your assets
for your life
as this all evolves, this changes.
You know, we think specifically about the Microsoft's
in the apples in this in this picture?
Now, they're subject to antitrust lawsuits again.
You look at Tesla the tesla has been
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dropping this year.
Okay? So there's some indication that a cycling
may happen.
And this is why it's very dangerous
for us as consumers
to focus
too much.
On
the S and P
as the driver of what we're doing,
to focus too much
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on strictly indexing things. Yeah. Low cost is
good and in their times in your journey
that makes sense and functions in your journey
where it makes sense.
But not being forward thinking and looking about
these changes
can really come back to hurt people.
So we look at projected earnings growth. Okay?
This is again, the same type of group
(07:55):
of experts.
That are looking at the various sectors of
the S and p 500.
And right now, they're saying,
darn, everything is rosy.
The the lowest projected growth that they've got
for the next year is about 5 and
half percent.
Now
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we use this information
to try to make this good decisions that
we can.
It's instructive,
but we also know
that
they're wrong quite a bit.
We can't ignore the opportunities that are there
right now.
But
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depending on where we are on our savings
journey,
we may need to take prudent steps
to put a floor in place.
I contend that to the selection of the
stocks, the selection of the company's index whatever
is secondary
to
having structural integrity on how you've got your
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money.
And having a strategy
that is going to
minimize risk along the way.
K?
Not just write it out. We've got... At
times in our life, we have to
take some of the winning off the table.
So
when we look at how long inflation stick
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around, it does look like
the they've put the genie back in the
bottle pretty good.
Or least by the measures that they use.
Reasonable minds can
say, hey.
That's not reality.
However,
(09:41):
the year 2 years,
of incredible
inflation. We know the impact of that. We
have seen the reset.
We have seen
we used to be able to go to
Wendy's for 6 bucks and now it's 10
bucks or whatever to get a burger and
fries.
So there's been a reset.
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And the growth from that reset is not
as significant as worth getting there.
And and I and I mentioned that
in the light of
resets in the economy.
Which is on the market side, what I
believe will happen in the next handful of
years if not sooner.
A similar reset,
(10:24):
Unfortunately, when happens with the market, we'll will
be reset down.
And then
we'll get used to that. And then we
can grow off for that. And I'm gonna
show you in a minute how that historically
has been the case.
But as we look for the rest of
this year,
We know that the end of July.
We got the the Fed meeting,
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an opportunity for them to
decrease rates
What have you? We're cold steady. This will
be a major decision point at that point
in time,
followed by 1 in September, which is gonna
can get a lot of press because it's
ripe for the election season really heats up,
let alone, November 6 and 7, right on
the eve. K?
So these are the points where the Fed
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is gonna have to make a decision. Now,
understand,
structurally, the Fed is an independent
entity.
Designed that way to try to be independent
of political
influence.
We'll see.
Because what people have to understand
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is that
bond
prices
and the interest rates or bond yield
work inverse.
And for many people
that has hurt them significantly
over the course of the last few years
as interest rates increased.
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So if I said it once to said
a hundred times, I believe that the
bond fund as it has been implemented in
consumer portfolios
is 1 of the biggest scams the industry
ever had.
See, there's only 2 reasons to buy a
bond.
1, if you owe some maturity,
and the company that you borrowed or that
borrowed the money from me or the governor
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of the borrowed the money from you is
credit worthy. They'll give you your principal back.
And
they said they pay an interest rate, a
certain amount.
Credit their credit,
they'll pay that.
So you have only that risk in there,
the be the credit risk there. When you're
in a bond fund,
you don't have any any guarantee that you'll
(12:31):
get your principal back, no guarantee of a
rate return.
And the industry has tried to use that
as a proxy on your
portfolio
to
protect against the... The the volatility
of the equities.
And we have seen over and over and
over again that on your portfolio, it didn't
work that way because
(12:51):
they're in funds of not in bonds. Because
if... And if you had in bonds, he
had to get out of it,
if the interest rates have gone up, then
your bonds lose value,
k? So they're very difficult for people to
use in their portfolio.
Very easy
for...
Large investors,
insurance companies,
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pension funds
to do that, to keep them on their
books until they're mature, So as long as
they're able to hold it until
maturity and
the companies or governments are credit worthy,
then
they're good.
You my friend
are not.
And that's where the industry has let most
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consumers down in building their portfolios.
Because I've taken this siri that was built
for big people,
holding the money to the maturity
and using it
for you and I, where we have to
get the money out within a reasonable period
of time.
And so
(13:53):
I wanna focus on time.
Because this conversation,
is
differs a base upon where you are in
your journey,
bear markets and bull markets.
Okay? If if you are early on in
your savings journey,
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If you hold the money in the market,
it will most likely
increase over time.
That's been proven over and over again.
But what people don't
understand,
is there are these long periods of time,
a bear market,
where the market is flat
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or even negative,
You know, if we look
back through eras,
we have got just just call it the
4010,
period of time,
where the S and P 500
for that decade
was basically flat.
And so
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if you are
early on in your savings,
Well, you're you're you're still buying and cheap.
Especially if it's if it's dropped. You're buying
things on sale. That's what's called dollar cost
averaging that helps you then.
But if you're in that phase of life
where you need to use, this... Savings
to generate your income and retirement or you're
(15:18):
close to it,
then
that reduced value,
and that reduced growth for an extended period
of time
can have significant
impact.
So as we were looking here at the
end of this year,
there's been a
sea change
because of
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the interest rates over the last few years.
And the sea change has occurred
in the insurance industry,
You see who is 1 of the biggest
buyers of these government bonds
that have been yielding greater pay
insurance companies.
So what they have been doing is they
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have been putting together these portfolios that they
can hold for a long period of time.
And predictably get greater return because they have
these bonds that they're holding,
and they can pool the risk,
And so what they've been doing is they
have been
putting forth
solutions for the consumer
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that give them a greater opportunity to grow
with protection,
than
they had been previously.
So got a lot of clients that are
ref financing
their
retirement as it were, by taking advantage of
outsourcing this risk.
So that if there is this extended period
of time where we have low growth or
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no growth,
let a little loss.
They've got a floor, they have protection.
And this is the type of structure that
we need to be thinking about,
you need be thinking about it for we're
young in our savings journey? Okay. We got
a lot of risk and really the volatility
should not really affect us. We're continue to
put money in.
But if we're knee nearing the tail end
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of our savings journey into our use journey,
it's a different story.
And so 1 of the things that we
need to be thinking about
is, you know,
are we in this bubble?
Or do we have something like that happening
right now?
Is this going to be
a crash?
(17:24):
I'm not calling it today folks.
And and I'm not saying that
Ai
is a fad.
I don't think it's, like, pets dot com.
It's a structural
change
that is going to
fundamentally transform Our conley.
(17:44):
You gonna implemented it between that,
and
robotics
and energy, all these things. This is why
I think is gonna be this confluence of
factors on the near horizon on top of
government policy.
That's causes some real challenges, but it's not
here yet.
And all of these factors that we've looked
at here today
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are saying to the experts.
We need to go along with that to
some extent because we know that they are
not infallible.
But if we go by the body and
knowledge that's out there.
The rest of this year,
looks like we're in pretty decent shape.
Maybe some volatility along the lines,
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but it'll be noise.
It should be noise.
Absent type of
black swan event.
So separate out the noise,
listen to the other noise about the politics
or do as I do. Stay away from
the news. Enjoy your life a little bit
more.
So until next time, I hope you found
your time spent with us here today to
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give you some important perspective on where we
are and where we're heading.
And as always, if you are client ours,
please pick on the phone. If you got
any questions,
if there's just a friend of ours that's
receiving our information and need needs couple questions
answered,
please feel free to reach out to us.
Take care. Be well. Goodbye.
(19:09):
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(19:30):
not intended to be a substitute for professional
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