May 29, 2024 • 9 mins
WEATHER WEDNESDAY IS HERE! And we will talk to our favorite Chief (not Cheap, just to be clear) meteorologist Dave Fraser at 12:30 so get your weather questions ready! I'll ask him if he feels like this someday.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
From people who were up north yesterday, Dave Fraser and are like, Dave,
you in mornings, what happened.Let's talk about that storm yesterday.
What happened. So it's typical,you know, typical late May going into
early June. You get these thunderstormsand they create outflow boundaries where one thunderstorm
will collapse and you get like agush of wind across the ground. And
(00:22):
when those boundaries collide, they haveto go off, they lift, and
you can generate additional showers and thunderstorms, and sometimes those that form on those
outflow boundaries kind of stall out,and so you've got rapid intensification, which
leads to the hail, and thenyou've got the stalling out factor where they
kind of propagate. So in otherwords, you get one that builds and
(00:42):
it drops, and another one buildsright behind it, and all of a
sudden, you've got this continuous downpourof rain, which if it sits in
an area like it did yesterday andyou're Greeley, it can certainly cause low
light and flooding. And so that'sjust that's the nature of the storms at
this time of the year. Andwe may have a couple more of those
today. However, they look tobe like they may move a little faster.
So what what specific condition happens tomake that kind of come to a
(01:07):
screeching halt? What what is goingon in front of that storm as it's
moving that just goes no, no, we're at a steam We're just going
to sit here. It just it'sit builds its own environment and it thrives
in that environment. It's okay,And it just and it's it's just like
a it's like a cycle. It'sit's one's collapsing, another one's coming up.
And sometimes we get what we calla training effect where the storms propagate
(01:30):
move along the same access over thesame area time and time and time again.
So when it comes to outflow boundaries, the computer models don't do a
good job. There's such short duration, finite little areas. So we just
have to watch the radar and lookfor the outflow boundaries and see if they
intersect. It's fun to watch themon on radar because sometimes you can see
(01:53):
the two boundaries going towards each otherand you wait for something to develop,
and sometimes it does, sometimes itdoesn't. It's it's uh, you know,
you will We're baking a soufle hereand the ingredients are there, but
one wrong ingredient or of mismeasurement,and you don't get something, or you
do get something. And well that'swhat happened in Greedley last night. Well
when you when you look at that, I mean your team of meteorologists,
(02:14):
you guys just sit there and go, dang it, dang it didn't we
didn't know. You know, that'sgoing to be frustrating. What do you
how do you so when you seea storm coming on radar, there's no
way to predict, as you justsaid, that that's going to happen.
Yeah, I mean each storm hasits own personality. Some of them are
easy to attrack, some of themhave more dynamic characteristics to them, so
(02:37):
that you know, like if it'sa longer cold front, you know it's
going to push from one air toanother. But when you're dealing with the
convective nature, think about a boilingpot of water and you know at some
point it's gonna the lid's gonna popoff, right, the bubbles, the
bubbles are going to start to go. Well at this time of the year,
that's what we're dealing with. We'redealing with a steady pot of water,
(02:59):
which is the high humidities and theheating of the day we'll get.
We're in the eighties today, andso you're boiling this pot of water.
The question is where the first bubblespop up? Got Yeah, so that's
the convection. That's the convection.So there's storm one, and then there's
storm too, and maybe Storm twoand three bump into each other, or
maybe one of them collapses and popsup another storm. So it's that very
(03:19):
kind of heating convective nature that we'redealing with. Sometimes you have broad as
storm systems like we get in thewinter, where it's widespread and you can
canvass a whole area. But whenyou're dealing with these small, tiny convective
storms, each one of them hasto be managed and watched on its own.
That's why we go with chances.It's never I don't like chances,
and I say there's a thirty percentchance. It's not that it's not that
(03:43):
there's a thirty percent chance that you, Mandy will see rain. It's that
within a given area, we feellike the coverage of storms equals thirty So
it's a whole mathematical equation will equalthirty percent eighty. So when you're dealing
with a large scale storms, justlike in the winter, it's easy to
say one hundred percent chance of snowbecause we can see it. But when
(04:03):
you're dealing with convection like this,the problem with saying a thirty percent chance
is if you're the person walking outof the grocery store and it rains on
you, your chance just went toaunt. No, that makes perfect sense
about where's the bubble gonna pop?I mean, that really does make a
lot of sense and kind of helpsme understand this much much better. I
have questions from the technical head too, and our terrain plays into that too,
(04:27):
because obviously the foothills in the mountainsteap faster than the green that we
have down here, and the rockin the mountains and everything. So you've
got this uneven platform, right,so it's like the pod is tilted a
little bit, right, so you'vegot to you've got to factor that in,
and then everything drips from west toeast. Where's the higher moisture,
Like right now, Denver's a littlebit dry. I think the better chance
for storms today is going to possiblybe back to Greeley, past the airport
(04:49):
and onto the plane. Doesn't meanDenver won't see a couple of storms.
But the moisture that we're dealing withhere is much less than it is out
on the plane, which is typicalbecause we we get a dry flow off
the mountain sometimes and that limits convectionfrom popping here along the front range.
But you get on the planes andit's a different story. This is actually
a question that goes along with whatwe're talking about from the tech line.
(05:11):
A decade or so, your colleagueChris Tomer mentioned that convection allowing computer models
worked great in the planes but werenearly worthless in complex mountainous terrain. Is
that still mostly true? Or havehigh resolution models now advanced to be a
lot better at predicting mountains thunderstorms.They've gotten better, but they're still not
good. Yeah, still not great, because all it takes is one area
(05:34):
that you did not anticipate to throwthe whole array of storm coverage off.
So the high resolution models, letme tell you something, in the last
ten years, fifteen, twenty,excuse me, twenty five years, computer
modeling has gotten really, really good. The problem with high resolution models is
(05:55):
they're updating sometimes in fifteen minute intervals. So if you looked at it now
and you went and looked at itfifteen minutes later, it may have two
different scenarios because it picks up onall the little nuances out there and it
tries to figure out, okay,wait a minute, this is happening.
Now is this going to happen?And so it's a whole mathematical equation that
has to happen. And so sometimesthe high resolution models are actually more confusing
(06:17):
a forecast standpoint, you want tolook at the bigger picture and go with
the Hey, look here's how weplay the forecast today, right and I
think if you're listening to me rightnow, this forecast should be helpful.
There's a thirty to forty percent chancethat we will have thunderstorms from about three
to eight o'clock, moving from westto east across metro and then maybe lasting
(06:41):
on the far eastern plains till teno'clock tonight. So there's your timeframe.
The chances there most places are MAYSIa storm, A lot of us won't.
And what you're going to deal withis lightning is always a threat when
thunder roars head indoors kale like wesaw yesterday, and the potential for gusty
wind the rain threat today is alittle lower than what happened yesterday. However,
having said that, we can alwaysget a storm that did like it
(07:03):
did in Greeley last night, andso we just be vigilant. We watched
the radar and try and update asmuch as the pertinent information as we can
as the scenario plays out. Okay, I got a bunch of questions and
very little time left, so let'srip through these and I'm giving you fifteen
seconds to twenty seconds to answer allof them. Okay, you ready.
Question for Dave. My family andI just survived our first tornado at Lake
(07:26):
Mac last week. It just barelywent around our house and devastated like thirty
houses. We live right on thelake. And I'm wondering what the effect
of a large body of water hason the strength of tornadoes. Depends on
where form. Probably not a lot, but you do get You can get
windflow because of the difference in thetemperatures, so the water would be heating
(07:50):
at a different ratio than the land, and that difference in heating can cause
spin up That's how dust doubles form, is the difference in heating. So
sometimes you'll see videos on the endInternet where like a dust double will come
up next to a pool, andit's because the air is rising at different
temperatures because of the difference between whatthe water is doing and the concrete next
to the pool, and so thatdifference causes the air to rise and you
(08:11):
get a spin up. So itcan have an influence, but overall,
large tornado is probably not a hugepack sector. Somebody wants to know air
force graduation tomorrow. What's that weatherlooking likely? What time's the graduation?
I'm guessing during the day. I'mpretty sure it's during the day, like
in the morning. Yeah, atthis time of the year, anything before
two o'clock you're probably okay. Anythingafter two o'clock you've got to watch for
(08:33):
the darker skies. And that goesfor any plans from now through probably the
end of June early July. We'rejust in that type of the season where
just the heating of the day getsthings going. Some days it'll be dried,
Like we're going to start a dryforecast on Saturday through early next week,
looking to take our first crack atninety degrees, probably by Sunday,
so we'll have dry days. Butat this time of the year, if
(08:54):
you're planning something important outside, anythingbefore two o'clock is a better bet.
All right, I have a reallygood question from a listener, but I
want you to think about it andnext week when we Oh, no,
we don't have this for the nexttwo weeks, Dave, because I'm on
vacation starting next Wednesday, so wewant to do But on the way back,
one of my listeners said, Ireally want to know what Dave's favorite
(09:16):
sayings are because you just used onewhen the you know, when the thunder
Roarers go indoors. He wants toknow your favorite little weather question catchphrases.
So when I get back, okay, we'll do those with Dave Frasier from
Box thirty one. Dave, Iappreciate your time. Yeah, we're leaving
next Wednesday for Norway. Won't beback for a week and a half.
Well, you have a great trip. That sounds like fun. I know
they have they run. Shoot mea text with that question and I will
(09:39):
off to the side and have mystuff ready when you get back. No
problem, I'll talk to you soonDave
From people who were up north yesterday, Dave Fraser and are like, Dave,
you in mornings, what happened.Let's talk about that storm yesterday.
What happened. So it's typical,you know, typical late May going into
early June. You get these thunderstormsand they create outflow boundaries where one thunderstorm
will collapse and you get like agush of wind across the ground. And
(00:22):
when those boundaries collide, they haveto go off, they lift, and
you can generate additional showers and thunderstorms, and sometimes those that form on those
outflow boundaries kind of stall out,and so you've got rapid intensification, which
leads to the hail, and thenyou've got the stalling out factor where they
kind of propagate. So in otherwords, you get one that builds and
(00:42):
it drops, and another one buildsright behind it, and all of a
sudden, you've got this continuous downpourof rain, which if it sits in
an area like it did yesterday andyou're Greeley, it can certainly cause low
light and flooding. And so that'sjust that's the nature of the storms at
this time of the year. Andwe may have a couple more of those
today. However, they look tobe like they may move a little faster.
So what what specific condition happens tomake that kind of come to a
(01:07):
screeching halt? What what is goingon in front of that storm as it's
moving that just goes no, no, we're at a steam We're just going
to sit here. It just it'sit builds its own environment and it thrives
in that environment. It's okay,And it just and it's it's just like
a it's like a cycle. It'sit's one's collapsing, another one's coming up.
And sometimes we get what we calla training effect where the storms propagate
(01:30):
move along the same access over thesame area time and time and time again.
So when it comes to outflow boundaries, the computer models don't do a
good job. There's such short duration, finite little areas. So we just
have to watch the radar and lookfor the outflow boundaries and see if they
intersect. It's fun to watch themon on radar because sometimes you can see
(01:53):
the two boundaries going towards each otherand you wait for something to develop,
and sometimes it does, sometimes itdoesn't. It's it's uh, you know,
you will We're baking a soufle hereand the ingredients are there, but
one wrong ingredient or of mismeasurement,and you don't get something, or you
do get something. And well that'swhat happened in Greedley last night. Well
when you when you look at that, I mean your team of meteorologists,
(02:14):
you guys just sit there and go, dang it, dang it didn't we
didn't know. You know, that'sgoing to be frustrating. What do you
how do you so when you seea storm coming on radar, there's no
way to predict, as you justsaid, that that's going to happen.
Yeah, I mean each storm hasits own personality. Some of them are
easy to attrack, some of themhave more dynamic characteristics to them, so
(02:37):
that you know, like if it'sa longer cold front, you know it's
going to push from one air toanother. But when you're dealing with the
convective nature, think about a boilingpot of water and you know at some
point it's gonna the lid's gonna popoff, right, the bubbles, the
bubbles are going to start to go. Well at this time of the year,
that's what we're dealing with. We'redealing with a steady pot of water,
(02:59):
which is the high humidities and theheating of the day we'll get.
We're in the eighties today, andso you're boiling this pot of water.
The question is where the first bubblespop up? Got Yeah, so that's
the convection. That's the convection.So there's storm one, and then there's
storm too, and maybe Storm twoand three bump into each other, or
maybe one of them collapses and popsup another storm. So it's that very
(03:19):
kind of heating convective nature that we'redealing with. Sometimes you have broad as
storm systems like we get in thewinter, where it's widespread and you can
canvass a whole area. But whenyou're dealing with these small, tiny convective
storms, each one of them hasto be managed and watched on its own.
That's why we go with chances.It's never I don't like chances,
and I say there's a thirty percentchance. It's not that it's not that
(03:43):
there's a thirty percent chance that you, Mandy will see rain. It's that
within a given area, we feellike the coverage of storms equals thirty So
it's a whole mathematical equation will equalthirty percent eighty. So when you're dealing
with a large scale storms, justlike in the winter, it's easy to
say one hundred percent chance of snowbecause we can see it. But when
(04:03):
you're dealing with convection like this,the problem with saying a thirty percent chance
is if you're the person walking outof the grocery store and it rains on
you, your chance just went toaunt. No, that makes perfect sense
about where's the bubble gonna pop?I mean, that really does make a
lot of sense and kind of helpsme understand this much much better. I
have questions from the technical head too, and our terrain plays into that too,
(04:27):
because obviously the foothills in the mountainsteap faster than the green that we
have down here, and the rockin the mountains and everything. So you've
got this uneven platform, right,so it's like the pod is tilted a
little bit, right, so you'vegot to you've got to factor that in,
and then everything drips from west toeast. Where's the higher moisture,
Like right now, Denver's a littlebit dry. I think the better chance
for storms today is going to possiblybe back to Greeley, past the airport
(04:49):
and onto the plane. Doesn't meanDenver won't see a couple of storms.
But the moisture that we're dealing withhere is much less than it is out
on the plane, which is typicalbecause we we get a dry flow off
the mountain sometimes and that limits convectionfrom popping here along the front range.
But you get on the planes andit's a different story. This is actually
a question that goes along with whatwe're talking about from the tech line.
(05:11):
A decade or so, your colleagueChris Tomer mentioned that convection allowing computer models
worked great in the planes but werenearly worthless in complex mountainous terrain. Is
that still mostly true? Or havehigh resolution models now advanced to be a
lot better at predicting mountains thunderstorms.They've gotten better, but they're still not
good. Yeah, still not great, because all it takes is one area
(05:34):
that you did not anticipate to throwthe whole array of storm coverage off.
So the high resolution models, letme tell you something, in the last
ten years, fifteen, twenty,excuse me, twenty five years, computer
modeling has gotten really, really good. The problem with high resolution models is
(05:55):
they're updating sometimes in fifteen minute intervals. So if you looked at it now
and you went and looked at itfifteen minutes later, it may have two
different scenarios because it picks up onall the little nuances out there and it
tries to figure out, okay,wait a minute, this is happening.
Now is this going to happen?And so it's a whole mathematical equation that
has to happen. And so sometimesthe high resolution models are actually more confusing
(06:17):
a forecast standpoint, you want tolook at the bigger picture and go with
the Hey, look here's how weplay the forecast today, right and I
think if you're listening to me rightnow, this forecast should be helpful.
There's a thirty to forty percent chancethat we will have thunderstorms from about three
to eight o'clock, moving from westto east across metro and then maybe lasting
(06:41):
on the far eastern plains till teno'clock tonight. So there's your timeframe.
The chances there most places are MAYSIa storm, A lot of us won't.
And what you're going to deal withis lightning is always a threat when
thunder roars head indoors kale like wesaw yesterday, and the potential for gusty
wind the rain threat today is alittle lower than what happened yesterday. However,
having said that, we can alwaysget a storm that did like it
(07:03):
did in Greeley last night, andso we just be vigilant. We watched
the radar and try and update asmuch as the pertinent information as we can
as the scenario plays out. Okay, I got a bunch of questions and
very little time left, so let'srip through these and I'm giving you fifteen
seconds to twenty seconds to answer allof them. Okay, you ready.
Question for Dave. My family andI just survived our first tornado at Lake
(07:26):
Mac last week. It just barelywent around our house and devastated like thirty
houses. We live right on thelake. And I'm wondering what the effect
of a large body of water hason the strength of tornadoes. Depends on
where form. Probably not a lot, but you do get You can get
windflow because of the difference in thetemperatures, so the water would be heating
(07:50):
at a different ratio than the land, and that difference in heating can cause
spin up That's how dust doubles form, is the difference in heating. So
sometimes you'll see videos on the endInternet where like a dust double will come
up next to a pool, andit's because the air is rising at different
temperatures because of the difference between whatthe water is doing and the concrete next
to the pool, and so thatdifference causes the air to rise and you
(08:11):
get a spin up. So itcan have an influence, but overall,
large tornado is probably not a hugepack sector. Somebody wants to know air
force graduation tomorrow. What's that weatherlooking likely? What time's the graduation?
I'm guessing during the day. I'mpretty sure it's during the day, like
in the morning. Yeah, atthis time of the year, anything before
two o'clock you're probably okay. Anythingafter two o'clock you've got to watch for
(08:33):
the darker skies. And that goesfor any plans from now through probably the
end of June early July. We'rejust in that type of the season where
just the heating of the day getsthings going. Some days it'll be dried,
Like we're going to start a dryforecast on Saturday through early next week,
looking to take our first crack atninety degrees, probably by Sunday,
so we'll have dry days. Butat this time of the year, if
(08:54):
you're planning something important outside, anythingbefore two o'clock is a better bet.
All right, I have a reallygood question from a listener, but I
want you to think about it andnext week when we Oh, no,
we don't have this for the nexttwo weeks, Dave, because I'm on
vacation starting next Wednesday, so wewant to do But on the way back,
one of my listeners said, Ireally want to know what Dave's favorite
(09:16):
sayings are because you just used onewhen the you know, when the thunder
Roarers go indoors. He wants toknow your favorite little weather question catchphrases.
So when I get back, okay, we'll do those with Dave Frasier from
Box thirty one. Dave, Iappreciate your time. Yeah, we're leaving
next Wednesday for Norway. Won't beback for a week and a half.
Well, you have a great trip. That sounds like fun. I know
they have they run. Shoot mea text with that question and I will
(09:39):
off to the side and have mystuff ready when you get back. No
problem, I'll talk to you soonDave
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