September 4, 2024 • 10 mins
WEATHER WEDNESDAY TODAY With Fox 31's Dave Fraser at 12:30 so get your weather questions ready!
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Our chief meteorologist from Fox thirty one, Dave Fraser. Dave Fraser,
how are you today?
Speaker 2 (00:06):
I'm good. How you doing, Mandy, I'm doing well.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
I heard a little rumor that we're going to get
some fall tomorrow. Like sweater weather is right around the corner.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
It's a brief duck around the corner, and then we'll
take another corner and go back to that Warman drive.
Speaker 1 (00:21):
Yeah, day, it's.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
A little turn. Yeah, a Rod wasn't happy with Meaty ourselves.
Speaker 1 (00:26):
We count on you to fix the weather the way
we like it, Dave, not just the way you're predicting.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
We need it.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
Like, so, what are we looking at?
Speaker 1 (00:32):
Nice day tomorrow and then back up for the weekend.
Is it going to be that fast?
Speaker 2 (00:37):
It won't be that fast. So today we're getting a
seasonal correction. Last couple of days we've been in the
hot nineties. It was ninety three on Sunday and ninety
three on Labor Day, ninety four yesterday. So today we're
going to be around season which is eighty four, and
then tomorrow we'll be in the load of mid seventy
so refreshing. Yeah, And so we've got two coal fronts
(00:58):
coming in one is actually coming in right now. Out
you'll look outside, you'll see the building clouds. We should
start to get into showers and thunderstorms here pretty quickly,
which will take us into the evening. They will be scattered,
and some of that could linger past midnight into early
Thursday before kind of drizzling showers wrap up with some
late day sunshine. But you'll feel the refreshing change tomorrow.
And then the other quarter that we'll turn is to
(01:19):
head back to the upper eighties and near ninety degrees,
but it'll take several days to inch back in that direction,
so lower eighties, mid eighties uper ratings and then maybe
close to ninety degrees early next week. And once we
get passed tonight and tomorrow morning's chance for rain. Unfortunately,
the forecast does look dry, although that's what we expect
in September, one of the best months of the year.
Speaker 1 (01:39):
Yeah, So any anything on a ten day, two week
outlook that's positive or we just going to stick around
with this kind of weather through September.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
You know, I, as always before I get on here
with you, I do the six to ten day, which
is just a little beyond our normal seven day that
we display on TV. I do the eighth to fourteen day,
I do the one month, the three months. I look
at all of it, and everything as it has all
summer long, continues to show above normal temperatures and below
normal precipitation. And while we talked about this in the past,
(02:10):
that never tells you anything about the day to day weather,
that pattern has certainly proved out. We ended up with
the second warmest June an average July for temperatures, fifth
warmest August, and second warmest summer on record for Denver,
only behind the hottest summer, which was twenty twelve.
Speaker 1 (02:28):
Now to be clear, and I actually sent you a
text about this the other day. On record is since
eighteen seventy two, and it's first reading to me that
we don't clarify that because on record sounds.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
Like, well, the beginning of record keeping went back thousands
of years, and when you consider how cyclical weather is
in ten thousand year and one hundred thousand year, you know,
spans to say.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
On record, I think it gives an impression that people
that this is like a all time and that's not
at all what we're talking about.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
Yeah, it's a tough cell, right because of exactly what
you said, the cyclical nature of thousands and thousands of years.
The only thing we can compare it to is that
record of history, and it is a short one, but
it's the only thing we have to compare. And in
Denver it's a little frustrating because I get this from
viewers all the time. Denver's weather records have been kept
(03:24):
in four different places. Twice downtown, then it's Stapleton for
the longest time, and then I think it was in
nineteen ninety one it transitioned over to DA the airport,
which is obviously removed from downtown. So there's always this
speculation if we're breaking a record that was set at
the airport, or we've breaken a record that was set downtown.
Of course you have to look at what year it
was set in, but it's the only body that we
(03:46):
have to be able to compare. The other thing is technology.
Think about mercury thermometers back in the eighteen hundred versus
today's you know, digital memes, and there's rounding of temperatures,
you know, so when you look at hourly observations, you'll
see ninety six point two, ninety six point four, ninety
six point eight. And then you do all the averaging
(04:07):
for your monthly averages, taking all the highs and the lows,
adding them together, dividing out by the number of days
in a month to come up with an average to
be able to compare month to month to month over
a series of years. So listen. It is not a
perfect science, but it does give you a little bit
of an understanding. To say, Denver's average is eighty four
today and I tell you it's going to be ninety four.
I think you can make the comparison. That's a hot day.
(04:29):
Yeah it is.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
And I think in Denver, moving that weather station from
downtown to the airport, it is significant, maybe more significant
here because the airport's on the planes, right, I mean,
it's it's like a completely different weather area in a
lot of ways. And I do think that those changes
are probably more jarring than they would be if we
(04:51):
move from a similar climate to another similar climate at
a different place. I mean, do you find that to
be true?
Speaker 2 (04:58):
Yeah, I would agree with you on that one hundred percent.
As a matter of fact, on the National Weather Service website,
if you look for under their climate tap, you'll find
a snow comparison, and what it will do is it
will show you contours of total snow over averages for
where the records were kept, and you can see the
snow totals are a little higher when they were downtown
(05:18):
and a little less as you move out towards the airport.
And that has to do with exactly what you said,
the topography. It's not a huge difference. We're not talking
feet of difference between where the sites were originally recorded
versus the airport, which is, you know, nineteen miles away.
But you can see those subtle differences and it has
to do with the sloping of the topography. The closer
you get to the flotals in the mountains, obviously the
(05:39):
totals are deeper the more you move out into the
planes that are a little bit lower. So you know,
no surprising to see that. It is not a perfect,
as I said, a perfect opportunity to compare, but it
is the only comparison we have.
Speaker 1 (05:50):
Well, on that note, I sent you an email. Did
you get Craig's the email that I a forwarded to you.
Speaker 2 (05:55):
I did, and it's top the list of Craigs and
he pulled from both weather dot Com and Craig's up
in Longmant Craig for thanks for sending him the question.
He pulled Wikipedia averages for Denver, and he also went
to weather dot com for averages for Denver. So I
pulled up the list that he sent. He pulled it.
The problem is anybody can edit Wikipedia, as you know.
(06:19):
So I went in and I looked just for comparison
to see and what I can't figure out is if
the numbers Craig included in his spreadsheet for June, July,
and August he was looking at the summer of twenty
twenty four was from a site possibly in downtown Denver,
versus the quote unquote out at the airport. So I'll
give you for instance. So on the first of August
(06:40):
he reported Denver hit one hundred and one. On the
second of August, his report shows one hundred. Well, the
airport reported ninety nine on the first and one hundred
and one on the second, and then he had ninety six.
They had ninety six, and then he had ninety nine,
they had one hundred and two. So the numbers don't
jive r the averages are going to be very different.
Speaker 1 (06:57):
Well, I think that the lesson is everything from Wikipedia
should be looked at with a skeptical eye.
Speaker 2 (07:03):
Absolutely, yeah, absolutely, and if you want, if you want official.
Despite everything we just talked about, the only record keeping
we have that is considered official based on the National
Weather Service, who is the record keeping organization for weather
across the country, is that site out at the airport,
and the official record can be found on their website.
And that's where I would go to get the official
(07:23):
numbers to the.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
Texter you just sent. No, Mandy, the planes are on
the airport, haha, sir or madam haha.
Speaker 3 (07:31):
Ralph asked a question.
Speaker 1 (07:32):
That I was going to ask you because I heard
a little news story about this. Are we currently in
La Nina or El Nino or neither? And what can
we expect for winter?
Speaker 2 (07:40):
In that respect, we are in La Nina kind of
heading towards a neutral and the outlook for winter. I
don't know that there's been a conclusion yet whether we'll
slip back to Lamina. We will determine that in the
coming month to what impact it may have. It does have.
Lamina and El Nino do have different impacts to ease
versus west across Colorado, and who benefits and who doesn't.
(08:03):
We should be able to work that out. Those are
numbers that come out all the time. As a matter
of fact, when I look at the climate data for
the outlooks that I was just telling you about six
to ten, the eight to fourteen, the three months, all
of that is based on where we are when it
comes to those types of patterns for El Nino Lamina.
So for right now, you know the next November persistent.
(08:25):
You know they're looking at Lamina to emerge in September,
and so we may be leaning more towards La Nina
from September through November. We'll have to wait and see
if that changes a little bit for the latter part
of winter, which made the December, January and februe. Don't
discount March in April for us here in Denver personnel and.
Speaker 1 (08:44):
For that person who's in there cargoing. But what's the
difference between La Nina and El Nino.
Speaker 2 (08:50):
It's the difference in the temperatures of the Pacific waters.
La Nina colder, El Nino warmer, and it changes the
jet streams squirrel across the Pacific, and and that's the
storm track that comes into the United States. The cat
the continuous United States from west to east. So depending
on what the ocean waters are doing, the jet stream
(09:10):
will kind of fluctuate a little bit, and the movement
of that jet can change across Colorado and how it
comes over the mountains from more of a northwesternly flow
to a southern track. Those differences in the tracks across
the state from north to south highly influence where storms
will set up and who will benefit from those different
storm systems. So a southern tract will benefit the front range,
(09:30):
a northwestern tract will benefit more. Northwestern Colorado will be
a little drier. And it also influences temperatures as well.
So those things are taken in, but they're like the
long range outlook. It's not a day to day. We
leable the day to day. We get into the nitty gritty,
we get into the details. We're looking for the hard numbers.
Then when it starts, when it ends, how much you're
shoveling all of that kind of stuff, And you can.
Speaker 1 (09:50):
Find out all that nitty gritty every single day on
Fox thirty one. They're great meteorology staff, can keep you
up to date, and Dave Frasier, we appreciate you. We'll
talk to again next week.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
Great weekend, weekend ed all right, that is Dave Fraser
Our chief meteorologist from Fox thirty one, Dave Fraser. Dave Fraser,
how are you today?
Speaker 2 (00:06):
I'm good. How you doing, Mandy, I'm doing well.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
I heard a little rumor that we're going to get
some fall tomorrow. Like sweater weather is right around the corner.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
It's a brief duck around the corner, and then we'll
take another corner and go back to that Warman drive.
Speaker 1 (00:21):
Yeah, day, it's.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
A little turn. Yeah, a Rod wasn't happy with Meaty ourselves.
Speaker 1 (00:26):
We count on you to fix the weather the way
we like it, Dave, not just the way you're predicting.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
We need it.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
Like, so, what are we looking at?
Speaker 1 (00:32):
Nice day tomorrow and then back up for the weekend.
Is it going to be that fast?
Speaker 2 (00:37):
It won't be that fast. So today we're getting a
seasonal correction. Last couple of days we've been in the
hot nineties. It was ninety three on Sunday and ninety
three on Labor Day, ninety four yesterday. So today we're
going to be around season which is eighty four, and
then tomorrow we'll be in the load of mid seventy
so refreshing. Yeah, And so we've got two coal fronts
(00:58):
coming in one is actually coming in right now. Out
you'll look outside, you'll see the building clouds. We should
start to get into showers and thunderstorms here pretty quickly,
which will take us into the evening. They will be scattered,
and some of that could linger past midnight into early
Thursday before kind of drizzling showers wrap up with some
late day sunshine. But you'll feel the refreshing change tomorrow.
And then the other quarter that we'll turn is to
(01:19):
head back to the upper eighties and near ninety degrees,
but it'll take several days to inch back in that direction,
so lower eighties, mid eighties uper ratings and then maybe
close to ninety degrees early next week. And once we
get passed tonight and tomorrow morning's chance for rain. Unfortunately,
the forecast does look dry, although that's what we expect
in September, one of the best months of the year.
Speaker 1 (01:39):
Yeah, So any anything on a ten day, two week
outlook that's positive or we just going to stick around
with this kind of weather through September.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
You know, I, as always before I get on here
with you, I do the six to ten day, which
is just a little beyond our normal seven day that
we display on TV. I do the eighth to fourteen day,
I do the one month, the three months. I look
at all of it, and everything as it has all
summer long, continues to show above normal temperatures and below
normal precipitation. And while we talked about this in the past,
(02:10):
that never tells you anything about the day to day weather,
that pattern has certainly proved out. We ended up with
the second warmest June an average July for temperatures, fifth
warmest August, and second warmest summer on record for Denver,
only behind the hottest summer, which was twenty twelve.
Speaker 1 (02:28):
Now to be clear, and I actually sent you a
text about this the other day. On record is since
eighteen seventy two, and it's first reading to me that
we don't clarify that because on record sounds.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
Like, well, the beginning of record keeping went back thousands
of years, and when you consider how cyclical weather is
in ten thousand year and one hundred thousand year, you know,
spans to say.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
On record, I think it gives an impression that people
that this is like a all time and that's not
at all what we're talking about.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
Yeah, it's a tough cell, right because of exactly what
you said, the cyclical nature of thousands and thousands of years.
The only thing we can compare it to is that
record of history, and it is a short one, but
it's the only thing we have to compare. And in
Denver it's a little frustrating because I get this from
viewers all the time. Denver's weather records have been kept
(03:24):
in four different places. Twice downtown, then it's Stapleton for
the longest time, and then I think it was in
nineteen ninety one it transitioned over to DA the airport,
which is obviously removed from downtown. So there's always this
speculation if we're breaking a record that was set at
the airport, or we've breaken a record that was set downtown.
Of course you have to look at what year it
was set in, but it's the only body that we
(03:46):
have to be able to compare. The other thing is technology.
Think about mercury thermometers back in the eighteen hundred versus
today's you know, digital memes, and there's rounding of temperatures,
you know, so when you look at hourly observations, you'll
see ninety six point two, ninety six point four, ninety
six point eight. And then you do all the averaging
(04:07):
for your monthly averages, taking all the highs and the lows,
adding them together, dividing out by the number of days
in a month to come up with an average to
be able to compare month to month to month over
a series of years. So listen. It is not a
perfect science, but it does give you a little bit
of an understanding. To say, Denver's average is eighty four
today and I tell you it's going to be ninety four.
I think you can make the comparison. That's a hot day.
(04:29):
Yeah it is.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
And I think in Denver, moving that weather station from
downtown to the airport, it is significant, maybe more significant
here because the airport's on the planes, right, I mean,
it's it's like a completely different weather area in a
lot of ways. And I do think that those changes
are probably more jarring than they would be if we
(04:51):
move from a similar climate to another similar climate at
a different place. I mean, do you find that to
be true?
Speaker 2 (04:58):
Yeah, I would agree with you on that one hundred percent.
As a matter of fact, on the National Weather Service website,
if you look for under their climate tap, you'll find
a snow comparison, and what it will do is it
will show you contours of total snow over averages for
where the records were kept, and you can see the
snow totals are a little higher when they were downtown
(05:18):
and a little less as you move out towards the airport.
And that has to do with exactly what you said,
the topography. It's not a huge difference. We're not talking
feet of difference between where the sites were originally recorded
versus the airport, which is, you know, nineteen miles away.
But you can see those subtle differences and it has
to do with the sloping of the topography. The closer
you get to the flotals in the mountains, obviously the
(05:39):
totals are deeper the more you move out into the
planes that are a little bit lower. So you know,
no surprising to see that. It is not a perfect,
as I said, a perfect opportunity to compare, but it
is the only comparison we have.
Speaker 1 (05:50):
Well, on that note, I sent you an email. Did
you get Craig's the email that I a forwarded to you.
Speaker 2 (05:55):
I did, and it's top the list of Craigs and
he pulled from both weather dot Com and Craig's up
in Longmant Craig for thanks for sending him the question.
He pulled Wikipedia averages for Denver, and he also went
to weather dot com for averages for Denver. So I
pulled up the list that he sent. He pulled it.
The problem is anybody can edit Wikipedia, as you know.
(06:19):
So I went in and I looked just for comparison
to see and what I can't figure out is if
the numbers Craig included in his spreadsheet for June, July,
and August he was looking at the summer of twenty
twenty four was from a site possibly in downtown Denver,
versus the quote unquote out at the airport. So I'll
give you for instance. So on the first of August
(06:40):
he reported Denver hit one hundred and one. On the
second of August, his report shows one hundred. Well, the
airport reported ninety nine on the first and one hundred
and one on the second, and then he had ninety six.
They had ninety six, and then he had ninety nine,
they had one hundred and two. So the numbers don't
jive r the averages are going to be very different.
Speaker 1 (06:57):
Well, I think that the lesson is everything from Wikipedia
should be looked at with a skeptical eye.
Speaker 2 (07:03):
Absolutely, yeah, absolutely, and if you want, if you want official.
Despite everything we just talked about, the only record keeping
we have that is considered official based on the National
Weather Service, who is the record keeping organization for weather
across the country, is that site out at the airport,
and the official record can be found on their website.
And that's where I would go to get the official
(07:23):
numbers to the.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
Texter you just sent. No, Mandy, the planes are on
the airport, haha, sir or madam haha.
Speaker 3 (07:31):
Ralph asked a question.
Speaker 1 (07:32):
That I was going to ask you because I heard
a little news story about this. Are we currently in
La Nina or El Nino or neither? And what can
we expect for winter?
Speaker 2 (07:40):
In that respect, we are in La Nina kind of
heading towards a neutral and the outlook for winter. I
don't know that there's been a conclusion yet whether we'll
slip back to Lamina. We will determine that in the
coming month to what impact it may have. It does have.
Lamina and El Nino do have different impacts to ease
versus west across Colorado, and who benefits and who doesn't.
(08:03):
We should be able to work that out. Those are
numbers that come out all the time. As a matter
of fact, when I look at the climate data for
the outlooks that I was just telling you about six
to ten, the eight to fourteen, the three months, all
of that is based on where we are when it
comes to those types of patterns for El Nino Lamina.
So for right now, you know the next November persistent.
(08:25):
You know they're looking at Lamina to emerge in September,
and so we may be leaning more towards La Nina
from September through November. We'll have to wait and see
if that changes a little bit for the latter part
of winter, which made the December, January and februe. Don't
discount March in April for us here in Denver personnel and.
Speaker 1 (08:44):
For that person who's in there cargoing. But what's the
difference between La Nina and El Nino.
Speaker 2 (08:50):
It's the difference in the temperatures of the Pacific waters.
La Nina colder, El Nino warmer, and it changes the
jet streams squirrel across the Pacific, and and that's the
storm track that comes into the United States. The cat
the continuous United States from west to east. So depending
on what the ocean waters are doing, the jet stream
(09:10):
will kind of fluctuate a little bit, and the movement
of that jet can change across Colorado and how it
comes over the mountains from more of a northwesternly flow
to a southern track. Those differences in the tracks across
the state from north to south highly influence where storms
will set up and who will benefit from those different
storm systems. So a southern tract will benefit the front range,
(09:30):
a northwestern tract will benefit more. Northwestern Colorado will be
a little drier. And it also influences temperatures as well.
So those things are taken in, but they're like the
long range outlook. It's not a day to day. We
leable the day to day. We get into the nitty gritty,
we get into the details. We're looking for the hard numbers.
Then when it starts, when it ends, how much you're
shoveling all of that kind of stuff, And you can.
Speaker 1 (09:50):
Find out all that nitty gritty every single day on
Fox thirty one. They're great meteorology staff, can keep you
up to date, and Dave Frasier, we appreciate you. We'll
talk to again next week.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
Great weekend, weekend ed all right, that is Dave Fraser
The Mandy Connell Podcast News
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