Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
It's fine for weather Wednesday with Iman Fox thirty one
Chief meteorologist Dave Fraser. Dave, we don't worry about that.
We usually I forgot to tell Zach's filling in for
a Rod, and I forgot to tell him. We usually
just come back with that intro. But it's okay, we'll
get it next week day next time.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Yes, how is it's like next week?
Speaker 1 (00:19):
Yeah? There you go.
Speaker 3 (00:19):
How are you?
Speaker 1 (00:20):
Dave Fraser?
Speaker 3 (00:21):
I'm going, well, how are you doing? Mandy?
Speaker 1 (00:23):
I'm doing nice. I gotta tell you, I have enjoyed
the heck out of the last few days. How incredibly
pleasant this weather is for winter? I mean, lees, this
is very nice. When is it going to go away?
Speaker 3 (00:35):
Starting over the weekend? Slowly over the weekend, we'll see
the temperatures coming down, and then it does look to
trend colder next week. So we've enjoyed yet a nice,
nice little break from the winter. I'm seeing parts of
my lawn that I haven't seen for the entire month
of January. Yes, no, and the piles and finally melted away.
So no, it's been fantastic. We started the month at
(00:56):
fifty six last Saturday. Then we went to sixty seven
last Sunday sixty eight. Monday yesterday was a little chilly
with that low clouds and fog. We're only in the
thirties forties. However, if you're on the south and west
side of town down where I live on the south
side of town.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
We're still in the fifties.
Speaker 3 (01:10):
So it just depends on your location. And we're back in.
Speaker 2 (01:13):
The sixties today.
Speaker 3 (01:14):
So yeah, fifties and sixties through the end of the
week and then next week get ready for some thirties
but no Arctic blast and periods of snow, but no
organized storm till maybe next Tuesday we might get some
light snow.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
I got a very specific texture question for you that
I think we might be a little too far out
to answer, but I'm gonna ask it anyway. Mandy, I
live in the Springs and need to travel the long
lunch on Valentine's Day. Well, we have snow on February fourteenth,
and will it affect my travel plans?
Speaker 3 (01:43):
So it is outside of the seven day to give
me anything anytime I get viewer emails like that that
are outside of anything that I have confidence.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
In, unless I know there's a strong pattern.
Speaker 3 (01:54):
Of quiet days or something like that. I tend not
to want to give them too much hope or anything,
you know that is a little bit outside right now
of our seven day forecast, I will say that as
I look at the trend for next week, while we'll
dip into the thirties and we'll maybe have some lights
in the middle of the week, I do always look
out ten days, but again, the confidence drops off after
(02:16):
you get past seven. And I do see a dryer
pattern as we get towards next Friday, which is Valentine's
Day a week from this coming Friday, and it does
look dry and it doesn't look like temperatures will come
back up into the forties. So at this point I
would say, looked in good, but don't put your hat
on it just yet.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
There you go. I want to ask, honestly, I can't
remember if it was yesterday the day before, but we
had a big brown cloud over the front range. Was
that just an ozone situation? What causes those brown cloud
days to what? It just settles on to the front range.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
So I think that you're talking about yesterday.
Speaker 3 (02:51):
Yesterday wasn't It was a little bit of pollutants, but
more it was kind.
Speaker 2 (02:55):
Of like a dirty hage. Yeah, we had very We
had very cold air Arctic are that slid into the Midwest.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
That clipped the northeast corner. Think of Sterling julesbd up
the ice seventy sixth quarter and they.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
Were entrenched in this low.
Speaker 3 (03:09):
Dense cloud deck on Monday when we were in the sixties.
And then yesterday the wind turned out of the east
northeast and pushed.
Speaker 2 (03:16):
All of that back to Denver. So Denver's official high
at the airport yesterday was only thirty sixth degrees.
Speaker 3 (03:22):
Wow, it was that.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
Low cloud deck that you're talking about.
Speaker 3 (03:24):
There was a foggy, kind of cold, misty hay that
may have had some pollutants trapped in it that made
it look like a brown cloud. It wasn't a perfect
brown cloud setup, but it certainly was an ugly looking
sky for the better part of your Tuesday and night.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
So you said that wasn't pollutants, So what exactly makes that?
Is it just dust and other crap or what makes
it look like that?
Speaker 3 (03:49):
No, it is probably the pollutants trapped in that cold
dense there in the lower level. So it was a
little bit of that, But a brown cloud generally what
we have is we have a flipped atmosphere where instead
of it the temperatures dropping as you rise, you've got
warmer air sitting over top of cold air, and that
can happen as a long flow out of the Westerns
over the top of the mountains and traps all the
(04:11):
air blow range. And that's when we think of a
brown cloud, and then everything it's like it's a lid.
It's like somebody slid a sliding glass door over the
top of the mountains and trapped all of the ballutants
in the lower atmosphere, and you get this ugly brown
cloud and it's all of the pollutants that are just
trapping can't lift and mix out of the atmosphere. So
(04:33):
yesterday I was not that this was more of a
coldnessty hay spot. When you're dealing with that type of
a static, kind of calm atmosphere, pollutants can be mixed
in with that, no question about it.
Speaker 1 (04:43):
Okay, let me ask this question from a texture. It says,
I've got a serious weather question. If we can't tell
what the weather is going to be tomorrow with some
sort of accuracy, how can we tell what it's going
to be in ten or fifty years with the entire climate.
Explain that Dave in the terms of climate is different
than weather, but weather makes up climate correct, Yes, exactly.
Speaker 3 (05:05):
I mean the climate climate is a is what you
would expect in a certain part of the world based
on you know, thirty year trends or longer trends. So
you know, you can take the oceans, for instance, west
coast or in the east sides of ocean oceans that
flow to west coast borders, like our west coast is cold.
(05:25):
The other flip side of that is warm. So you
have bodies of water circulation that have influence and the
weather storm tracks move from west to east what part
of the globe you're in. So the climate is what
you would expect. So in Colorado, you would expect it
to snow in the winter. In the summer, you would.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
Expect it to be hot in Florida. So those are
the expectations.
Speaker 3 (05:47):
The record, the forecast for weather, the variability of weather
is the forecasting within the next seven to ten days.
Speaker 2 (05:54):
The climate is the global picture of what might be happening.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
And they do run sophisticated climate models to kind of
take a look at White Mighty happening in patterns for
years to come. But I you and I have taught
there's just not a lot of components from where.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
I sit, because we talk about eight to fourteen day.
Speaker 3 (06:12):
Outlooks and monthly outlooks and three month outlooks, and barely
ever did they tell you about that day to day.
Speaker 2 (06:18):
Variability of weather. I'll just give it right.
Speaker 3 (06:22):
The month of February is on track as a month outlook.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
About the entire month is on track to be warmer
and drier than normal. And we've had four day three
days in the.
Speaker 3 (06:35):
Sixties and one day in the fifties, so five days
in you would think that's on track. However, the next
eight to fourteen days shows it to be colder and
wetter than normal.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
So again, know, the day to day variability is what we're.
Speaker 3 (06:48):
Left with to you know, that's my job. What is
going to happen for the next seven to ten days?
Speaker 1 (06:54):
Okay? So and you know, I'm I think that, I mean,
I've talked about this a lot on my show. I
think the climate modeling is sort of like just it's
an educated crystal ball. There's a lot that goes into it,
But until we get one thousand years more data, solid data.
(07:15):
I think it's going to be really impossible for us
to really extrapolate out exactly what may happen in the
near future. I have one more, We'll go ahead.
Speaker 3 (07:24):
No, I mean that is true. When you have a model,
it is designed and has algorithms in it to calculate
what you enter into it and what that might look
like in the future. That model is based on a
bunch of standards. However, you're inputting the data, and if
that data changes or that data is wrong, the output
of that model is certainly not going to be correct either.
(07:46):
And those are the challenges of model exactly.
Speaker 1 (07:49):
One last question before we run out of time, Dave,
and this one is a good one. I think, wait,
hang on it, We've got an update here. Does smoke
from the fires provide kernels to form, meaning to the
particulates that are going up in smoke gather that water?
But doesn't there have to be enough water in the
air to make that happen.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
So the atmosphere has water, and it's super cool water
is what we call it.
Speaker 3 (08:14):
But in order for the super cool particles and the
finite water particles to condense and grow into rain drops
or snowflakes. You need what's called condensation nuclei. You need
some type of a particulate, whether it's a grain of
salt from sea air, or whether it's a smoke particle
or any other dust particle, you need something for it
(08:36):
to attach to and grow.
Speaker 2 (08:38):
So if you look up go to Google and.
Speaker 3 (08:40):
Look up condensation nuclei and it will give you a
great explanation of how those particles flow around with storm
system and help to create rain drops and kind of
give us a better chance of moisture across the area.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
Excellent, all right, Dave Fraser, we'll talk to you next week. Well,
we'll have a much more accurate forecast for our listener
who's driving to a wedding, you know, because that's what
we're here for to provide a service. Or you could
just watch the Great Weather Team on Fox thirty one,
our partner at KATVR, because they have a very very
accurate team at there, and so you can find out there. Dave,
we'll talk to you next week.
Speaker 2 (09:12):
Yep, yep.
Speaker 3 (09:13):
We're on all weekend, and don't forget, we've got the Super.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
Bowl, so join us in the Super Bowl.
Speaker 3 (09:17):
I will be working Sunday night and I will have
an updated all the way through next weekend. We'll gust
including Valentine show.
Speaker 1 (09:24):
I was going to ask you who got the Super
Bowl gig because people may not know that that's like
prime territory for meteorologists to be able to do that
little snippet in there during the Super Bowl. I'll be
watching for you, Dave.
Speaker 3 (09:36):
All right, have a great weekend.
Speaker 1 (09:37):
All right, you two. Thank you, Dave Frasier. We'll be
right back
It's fine for weather Wednesday with Iman Fox thirty one
Chief meteorologist Dave Fraser. Dave, we don't worry about that.
We usually I forgot to tell Zach's filling in for
a Rod, and I forgot to tell him. We usually
just come back with that intro. But it's okay, we'll
get it next week day next time.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Yes, how is it's like next week?
Speaker 1 (00:19):
Yeah? There you go.
Speaker 3 (00:19):
How are you?
Speaker 1 (00:20):
Dave Fraser?
Speaker 3 (00:21):
I'm going, well, how are you doing? Mandy?
Speaker 1 (00:23):
I'm doing nice. I gotta tell you, I have enjoyed
the heck out of the last few days. How incredibly
pleasant this weather is for winter? I mean, lees, this
is very nice. When is it going to go away?
Speaker 3 (00:35):
Starting over the weekend? Slowly over the weekend, we'll see
the temperatures coming down, and then it does look to
trend colder next week. So we've enjoyed yet a nice,
nice little break from the winter. I'm seeing parts of
my lawn that I haven't seen for the entire month
of January. Yes, no, and the piles and finally melted away.
So no, it's been fantastic. We started the month at
(00:56):
fifty six last Saturday. Then we went to sixty seven
last Sunday sixty eight. Monday yesterday was a little chilly
with that low clouds and fog. We're only in the
thirties forties. However, if you're on the south and west
side of town down where I live on the south
side of town.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
We're still in the fifties.
Speaker 3 (01:10):
So it just depends on your location. And we're back in.
Speaker 2 (01:13):
The sixties today.
Speaker 3 (01:14):
So yeah, fifties and sixties through the end of the
week and then next week get ready for some thirties
but no Arctic blast and periods of snow, but no
organized storm till maybe next Tuesday we might get some
light snow.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
I got a very specific texture question for you that
I think we might be a little too far out
to answer, but I'm gonna ask it anyway. Mandy, I
live in the Springs and need to travel the long
lunch on Valentine's Day. Well, we have snow on February fourteenth,
and will it affect my travel plans?
Speaker 3 (01:43):
So it is outside of the seven day to give
me anything anytime I get viewer emails like that that
are outside of anything that I have confidence.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
In, unless I know there's a strong pattern.
Speaker 3 (01:54):
Of quiet days or something like that. I tend not
to want to give them too much hope or anything,
you know that is a little bit outside right now
of our seven day forecast, I will say that as
I look at the trend for next week, while we'll
dip into the thirties and we'll maybe have some lights
in the middle of the week, I do always look
out ten days, but again, the confidence drops off after
(02:16):
you get past seven. And I do see a dryer
pattern as we get towards next Friday, which is Valentine's
Day a week from this coming Friday, and it does
look dry and it doesn't look like temperatures will come
back up into the forties. So at this point I
would say, looked in good, but don't put your hat
on it just yet.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
There you go. I want to ask, honestly, I can't
remember if it was yesterday the day before, but we
had a big brown cloud over the front range. Was
that just an ozone situation? What causes those brown cloud
days to what? It just settles on to the front range.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
So I think that you're talking about yesterday.
Speaker 3 (02:51):
Yesterday wasn't It was a little bit of pollutants, but
more it was kind.
Speaker 2 (02:55):
Of like a dirty hage. Yeah, we had very We
had very cold air Arctic are that slid into the Midwest.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
That clipped the northeast corner. Think of Sterling julesbd up
the ice seventy sixth quarter and they.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
Were entrenched in this low.
Speaker 3 (03:09):
Dense cloud deck on Monday when we were in the sixties.
And then yesterday the wind turned out of the east
northeast and pushed.
Speaker 2 (03:16):
All of that back to Denver. So Denver's official high
at the airport yesterday was only thirty sixth degrees.
Speaker 3 (03:22):
Wow, it was that.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
Low cloud deck that you're talking about.
Speaker 3 (03:24):
There was a foggy, kind of cold, misty hay that
may have had some pollutants trapped in it that made
it look like a brown cloud. It wasn't a perfect
brown cloud setup, but it certainly was an ugly looking
sky for the better part of your Tuesday and night.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
So you said that wasn't pollutants, So what exactly makes that?
Is it just dust and other crap or what makes
it look like that?
Speaker 3 (03:49):
No, it is probably the pollutants trapped in that cold
dense there in the lower level. So it was a
little bit of that, But a brown cloud generally what
we have is we have a flipped atmosphere where instead
of it the temperatures dropping as you rise, you've got
warmer air sitting over top of cold air, and that
can happen as a long flow out of the Westerns
over the top of the mountains and traps all the
(04:11):
air blow range. And that's when we think of a
brown cloud, and then everything it's like it's a lid.
It's like somebody slid a sliding glass door over the
top of the mountains and trapped all of the ballutants
in the lower atmosphere, and you get this ugly brown
cloud and it's all of the pollutants that are just
trapping can't lift and mix out of the atmosphere. So
(04:33):
yesterday I was not that this was more of a
coldnessty hay spot. When you're dealing with that type of
a static, kind of calm atmosphere, pollutants can be mixed
in with that, no question about it.
Speaker 1 (04:43):
Okay, let me ask this question from a texture. It says,
I've got a serious weather question. If we can't tell
what the weather is going to be tomorrow with some
sort of accuracy, how can we tell what it's going
to be in ten or fifty years with the entire climate.
Explain that Dave in the terms of climate is different
than weather, but weather makes up climate correct, Yes, exactly.
Speaker 3 (05:05):
I mean the climate climate is a is what you
would expect in a certain part of the world based
on you know, thirty year trends or longer trends. So
you know, you can take the oceans, for instance, west
coast or in the east sides of ocean oceans that
flow to west coast borders, like our west coast is cold.
(05:25):
The other flip side of that is warm. So you
have bodies of water circulation that have influence and the
weather storm tracks move from west to east what part
of the globe you're in. So the climate is what
you would expect. So in Colorado, you would expect it
to snow in the winter. In the summer, you would.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
Expect it to be hot in Florida. So those are
the expectations.
Speaker 3 (05:47):
The record, the forecast for weather, the variability of weather
is the forecasting within the next seven to ten days.
Speaker 2 (05:54):
The climate is the global picture of what might be happening.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
And they do run sophisticated climate models to kind of
take a look at White Mighty happening in patterns for
years to come. But I you and I have taught
there's just not a lot of components from where.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
I sit, because we talk about eight to fourteen day.
Speaker 3 (06:12):
Outlooks and monthly outlooks and three month outlooks, and barely
ever did they tell you about that day to day.
Speaker 2 (06:18):
Variability of weather. I'll just give it right.
Speaker 3 (06:22):
The month of February is on track as a month outlook.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
About the entire month is on track to be warmer
and drier than normal. And we've had four day three
days in the.
Speaker 3 (06:35):
Sixties and one day in the fifties, so five days
in you would think that's on track. However, the next
eight to fourteen days shows it to be colder and
wetter than normal.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
So again, know, the day to day variability is what we're.
Speaker 3 (06:48):
Left with to you know, that's my job. What is
going to happen for the next seven to ten days?
Speaker 1 (06:54):
Okay? So and you know, I'm I think that, I mean,
I've talked about this a lot on my show. I
think the climate modeling is sort of like just it's
an educated crystal ball. There's a lot that goes into it,
But until we get one thousand years more data, solid data.
(07:15):
I think it's going to be really impossible for us
to really extrapolate out exactly what may happen in the
near future. I have one more, We'll go ahead.
Speaker 3 (07:24):
No, I mean that is true. When you have a model,
it is designed and has algorithms in it to calculate
what you enter into it and what that might look
like in the future. That model is based on a
bunch of standards. However, you're inputting the data, and if
that data changes or that data is wrong, the output
of that model is certainly not going to be correct either.
(07:46):
And those are the challenges of model exactly.
Speaker 1 (07:49):
One last question before we run out of time, Dave,
and this one is a good one. I think, wait,
hang on it, We've got an update here. Does smoke
from the fires provide kernels to form, meaning to the
particulates that are going up in smoke gather that water?
But doesn't there have to be enough water in the
air to make that happen.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
So the atmosphere has water, and it's super cool water
is what we call it.
Speaker 3 (08:14):
But in order for the super cool particles and the
finite water particles to condense and grow into rain drops
or snowflakes. You need what's called condensation nuclei. You need
some type of a particulate, whether it's a grain of
salt from sea air, or whether it's a smoke particle
or any other dust particle, you need something for it
(08:36):
to attach to and grow.
Speaker 2 (08:38):
So if you look up go to Google and.
Speaker 3 (08:40):
Look up condensation nuclei and it will give you a
great explanation of how those particles flow around with storm
system and help to create rain drops and kind of
give us a better chance of moisture across the area.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
Excellent, all right, Dave Fraser, we'll talk to you next week. Well,
we'll have a much more accurate forecast for our listener
who's driving to a wedding, you know, because that's what
we're here for to provide a service. Or you could
just watch the Great Weather Team on Fox thirty one,
our partner at KATVR, because they have a very very
accurate team at there, and so you can find out there. Dave,
we'll talk to you next week.
Speaker 2 (09:12):
Yep, yep.
Speaker 3 (09:13):
We're on all weekend, and don't forget, we've got the Super.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
Bowl, so join us in the Super Bowl.
Speaker 3 (09:17):
I will be working Sunday night and I will have
an updated all the way through next weekend. We'll gust
including Valentine show.
Speaker 1 (09:24):
I was going to ask you who got the Super
Bowl gig because people may not know that that's like
prime territory for meteorologists to be able to do that
little snippet in there during the Super Bowl. I'll be
watching for you, Dave.
Speaker 3 (09:36):
All right, have a great weekend.
Speaker 1 (09:37):
All right, you two. Thank you, Dave Frasier. We'll be
right back
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