March 26, 2025 • 8 mins
IT'S A GLORIOUS TIME TO TALK ABOUT WEATHER! And Fox 31's Dave Fraser joins us to discuss all things weather related.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
We've got Box thirty one's Dave Frasier on the phone lines.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
Hello Dave, Hey, good afternoon.
Speaker 3 (00:06):
Hope you enjoying it.
Speaker 1 (00:07):
You know what good afternoon it is. I don't know
where you mail ordered this weather from, but it is
a okay with me. How much longer do we get
to enjoy it?
Speaker 3 (00:16):
Two more days?
Speaker 2 (00:17):
Two more days?
Speaker 3 (00:18):
See day Friday.
Speaker 1 (00:20):
I just want to remind people, if you're out and
about today, take a good glance at these snow capped mountains.
And I'm not saying the mountains are ugly during the summer,
but aren't they so much prettier when they've got snow
sitting on the top of them like they do today.
I made a note of that this morning when I
was driving in and I was like, dang, they're pretty.
I want to remind people to take a minute and
just appreciate the beauty of the front range if you
(00:40):
have the opportunity.
Speaker 3 (00:42):
Yeah, and it's definitely a chamber of commerce picture. There's
no question about that. Blue sky's overhead, white capped mountains.
You know, it'd be great if we were a little
deeper in the spring and everything down here and already
greened up and blossomed out. But just looking at those
mountains too, you'll notice it's deep snow. You can tell
with your deep snow. And so for the Front Range,
(01:02):
while other parts of the state are struggling for their
water supply, we're still looking pretty good. Even though it
has been a dry March. There's no question about that.
And I was just sitting here crunching all the numbers
for March. As we get close to the end of
the month, we're definitely going to get into the record books.
The question is where, So what are.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
We looking at in the parts of the state that
are not snow packed properly? What are what kind of
levels are we seeing and what does that mean?
Speaker 3 (01:26):
So it just has to go with the water supply.
You know, we have eight river basins where the mountains
feed into those basins, and so the southern and southwestern
part of the state are struggling at less than sixty
percent of normal. You have close to ninety ninety plus
to the northwest corner, and then the Front Range is
doing pretty good still in the ninety percent stile. Remember
we load all the way through early April, so we
(01:48):
can still add to that and boost those numbers. But
to be that close to one hundred percent of normal
is pretty good. And all of that obviously melts off,
turns into recreations for the rivers, the streams, the creeks, fishing, wrapping,
and so but more importantly, it fills the reservoirs and
gives us the water supply should we stay on a
dry note. And quite frankly, you know the outlook for March.
(02:08):
I've told you this time and time again. Don't put
a lot of effort or emphasis on those long range
models thirty sixty ninety. It can give you a pattern
kind of a look, but it doesn't tell you anything
about the day to day. And so you think about
a couple of months. February, for instance, we had one
big snowstorm and that was enough to get us through
the month. March is not delivered. We've had less than
an inch of snow. We're struggling with only a quarter
(02:30):
of an inch of moisture. However, one last push this weekend,
we have a chance Saturday and Sunday to pick up
some needed moisture. Right now, it looks to be all
in the form of rain, and it could be up
to a half an inch and if that's the case,
that would get us off the driest list for March,
which would be fantastic. And the timing is perfect, get
some moisture as things are starting to the you know,
(02:50):
leaves are thinking about budding out and the grasses trying
to get you know, become on doormant and green up
a little bit. So the timing of this weekend's rain
would be perfect. The question and we have is where's
that snow line? Because it is still March and it
can drop down, and so we're watching that closely to
see if there could be a mix maybe on the
south and west side of town above six thousand, or
(03:11):
could it accumulate to a slushy couple of inches. Those
are the questions we have to answer in the next
few days. All right.
Speaker 1 (03:16):
I got a question from a text on the Common
Spirit Heal text line at five sixty six nine Ohero
question for Dave F. The National Weather Service is reducing
balloon launches at some sites, including in Colorado, Wyoming and Nebraska.
How will this impact models as well as human forecasting?
And I want to add to that question and ask
what are we using the weather balloons for? It almost
(03:37):
seems archaic in the time of all these super duper
Doppler radar seven thousands that we have all over the place.
Speaker 3 (03:45):
Well, the weather balloons have instrumentation attached to them as
they leave the ground and go through the atmosphere, and
those instruments are taking slices of the atmosphere temperatures, wind
de point, humidity levels, and all of those factor into
what the atmosphere looks like. Vertically, that information is plugged
(04:05):
into computer models to help analyze the atmosphere, and then
the computer models extrapolate that out to give us what
we call our guidance. Different computer models have different algorithms
set into them, and that's why you have variations in forecasts.
Some computer models will you know, go crazy with certain things,
others will be a little more restricted, and it's our
(04:26):
job as meteorologists to look into that. I do you know,
there is a concern that if we lose too much
of that valued upper atmosphere data, then it could skew
the models, giving us, you know, a real headache in
trying to interpret what might be happening in the future,
predicting you know, the forecast, so to speak. It's not
(04:46):
a crisis right now, what we're watching closely in we're
in partnership, and I talk with our friends up in
Boulder at the National Weather Service is where they may
make cuts, what jobs may be eliminated, and does that
have anything to do with public safety. That's my concern,
you know, I don't want I want the forecast to
(05:06):
be as accurate as possible, and that's why I spend
hours digging through model data and details and looking at
as much as I can. You could, literally, Mandy, spend
eight hours looking at the variations and models and the details,
finite details, and never get a forecast complete. At some
point you have to make a decision right and move on.
And so, you know, I spend as much time as
(05:27):
I can, and then I'll tweak it, don't I don't
just throw it down on paper and walk away. I'll
throw it down on paper and go back and look
at it and updated with new model data. But again,
I'm not terribly concerned at this juncture about those weather
balloons and the data. But I am concerned if the
National Weather Service loses frontline people who may be doing
nothing more than watching radar closely to determine if the
(05:48):
storm is going to hail. If it's got lightning, could
have produced a tornado and not getting those warnings out.
By the way, we can see that same data with
our set, but they are the governing body responsible for
alerting the public to those dangers.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
Let me ask one.
Speaker 1 (06:02):
More question, and we only have a couple of minutes
left here, but it's a question I have and this
one said Mandy. I saw the closed cloud formation the
other day. It was like a stack of pancakes. I
think it's called lenticular Can you ask Dave what causes that?
And is that something that happens mostly in Colorado And
I'm going to be from the east coast. I had
never seen those until I was I got here.
Speaker 3 (06:23):
Yeah, so it is. It is just that lenticula. Think
about the curve of a lens, like a like a
you know, your glasses or a contact lens. And what
happens is the wind flow comes out of the west
over the mountains, and as it curls up and over
the peaks, if there's just the right amount of moisture
as it's curving, it condenses that moisture into a cloud
(06:46):
because it's lifting it over the peak, and so you
get these flying saucer or lenticular looking clouds, and if
the wind is strong enough, you can get them in.
Like your listener asked, it can look like pancakes. So
you could have one of the lower elevation one a
little higher. They could be dotted down the entire Front
Range mountains, and they are one of the coolest cloud
formations when they happen. And yes, you're right, those of
(07:08):
us from the east who grew up there, you got
to come west to be able to see that beauty?
Speaker 1 (07:12):
Is that because like the Smoky mountains aren't high enough
or they're not rocky like our mountains are. They're tree
covered for the most part, or any amount of humidity.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
Why does it only happen here?
Speaker 3 (07:22):
What?
Speaker 1 (07:23):
So you need a mountain, I'm guessing, and you need
that upslope wind.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
So yeah, it's the height of our mountains.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
Okay, you know, okay, you know.
Speaker 3 (07:32):
This is This is fine, this is I couldn't believe
the statistic one I heard years and years and years ago.
So our mountains, as we know, we have peaks that
reached thirteen fourteen thousand feet in the atmosphere are fourteen ers. Right,
do you know that the tallest mountain from base to
the top. You know where it is, isn't it?
Speaker 2 (07:50):
Isn't it one of the Hawaiian islands.
Speaker 3 (07:52):
No, it's actually I'm pretty sure it's Mount Washington in
New Hampshire. What so, Yeah, I'm pretty sure. I'll I'll
double check, but I'm almost positive it's Mount Washington in
New Hampshire. And so it's the face of the mountain
is more than six thousand feet tall. Where our mountains
slope up, you go up the footage right right, ten thousand,
you go up to eleven thousand. You know, you start
(08:14):
skiing and you go up, so you think about it.
You're you know, the base of the mountains are not
all the way down to the ground. They're they're already
elevated as you climb up to those fourteen ers.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
Oh, I got it.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
So it's its height versus tall.
Speaker 2 (08:28):
Got it? I understand?
Speaker 3 (08:30):
Dave.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
One last text, Yeah it does.
Speaker 1 (08:32):
Before I let you go, Dave makes a sound that
sound like forecasting the weather is a science rather than
looking outside to.
Speaker 2 (08:38):
See if the rock is wet or dry.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
If only it was just the rock is wet or dry,
that would be it. Dave Fraser, we appreciate you. We'll
talk to again next week, my friend.
Speaker 3 (08:48):
All right, keep an eye on your rock and enjoy
the next couple of days, all right, Thanks Dave, That
is Dave Fraser.
We've got Box thirty one's Dave Frasier on the phone lines.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
Hello Dave, Hey, good afternoon.
Speaker 3 (00:06):
Hope you enjoying it.
Speaker 1 (00:07):
You know what good afternoon it is. I don't know
where you mail ordered this weather from, but it is
a okay with me. How much longer do we get
to enjoy it?
Speaker 3 (00:16):
Two more days?
Speaker 2 (00:17):
Two more days?
Speaker 3 (00:18):
See day Friday.
Speaker 1 (00:20):
I just want to remind people, if you're out and
about today, take a good glance at these snow capped mountains.
And I'm not saying the mountains are ugly during the summer,
but aren't they so much prettier when they've got snow
sitting on the top of them like they do today.
I made a note of that this morning when I
was driving in and I was like, dang, they're pretty.
I want to remind people to take a minute and
just appreciate the beauty of the front range if you
(00:40):
have the opportunity.
Speaker 3 (00:42):
Yeah, and it's definitely a chamber of commerce picture. There's
no question about that. Blue sky's overhead, white capped mountains.
You know, it'd be great if we were a little
deeper in the spring and everything down here and already
greened up and blossomed out. But just looking at those
mountains too, you'll notice it's deep snow. You can tell
with your deep snow. And so for the Front Range,
(01:02):
while other parts of the state are struggling for their
water supply, we're still looking pretty good. Even though it
has been a dry March. There's no question about that.
And I was just sitting here crunching all the numbers
for March. As we get close to the end of
the month, we're definitely going to get into the record books.
The question is where, So what are.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
We looking at in the parts of the state that
are not snow packed properly? What are what kind of
levels are we seeing and what does that mean?
Speaker 3 (01:26):
So it just has to go with the water supply.
You know, we have eight river basins where the mountains
feed into those basins, and so the southern and southwestern
part of the state are struggling at less than sixty
percent of normal. You have close to ninety ninety plus
to the northwest corner, and then the Front Range is
doing pretty good still in the ninety percent stile. Remember
we load all the way through early April, so we
(01:48):
can still add to that and boost those numbers. But
to be that close to one hundred percent of normal
is pretty good. And all of that obviously melts off,
turns into recreations for the rivers, the streams, the creeks, fishing, wrapping,
and so but more importantly, it fills the reservoirs and
gives us the water supply should we stay on a
dry note. And quite frankly, you know the outlook for March.
(02:08):
I've told you this time and time again. Don't put
a lot of effort or emphasis on those long range
models thirty sixty ninety. It can give you a pattern
kind of a look, but it doesn't tell you anything
about the day to day. And so you think about
a couple of months. February, for instance, we had one
big snowstorm and that was enough to get us through
the month. March is not delivered. We've had less than
an inch of snow. We're struggling with only a quarter
(02:30):
of an inch of moisture. However, one last push this weekend,
we have a chance Saturday and Sunday to pick up
some needed moisture. Right now, it looks to be all
in the form of rain, and it could be up
to a half an inch and if that's the case,
that would get us off the driest list for March,
which would be fantastic. And the timing is perfect, get
some moisture as things are starting to the you know,
(02:50):
leaves are thinking about budding out and the grasses trying
to get you know, become on doormant and green up
a little bit. So the timing of this weekend's rain
would be perfect. The question and we have is where's
that snow line? Because it is still March and it
can drop down, and so we're watching that closely to
see if there could be a mix maybe on the
south and west side of town above six thousand, or
(03:11):
could it accumulate to a slushy couple of inches. Those
are the questions we have to answer in the next
few days. All right.
Speaker 1 (03:16):
I got a question from a text on the Common
Spirit Heal text line at five sixty six nine Ohero
question for Dave F. The National Weather Service is reducing
balloon launches at some sites, including in Colorado, Wyoming and Nebraska.
How will this impact models as well as human forecasting?
And I want to add to that question and ask
what are we using the weather balloons for? It almost
(03:37):
seems archaic in the time of all these super duper
Doppler radar seven thousands that we have all over the place.
Speaker 3 (03:45):
Well, the weather balloons have instrumentation attached to them as
they leave the ground and go through the atmosphere, and
those instruments are taking slices of the atmosphere temperatures, wind
de point, humidity levels, and all of those factor into
what the atmosphere looks like. Vertically, that information is plugged
(04:05):
into computer models to help analyze the atmosphere, and then
the computer models extrapolate that out to give us what
we call our guidance. Different computer models have different algorithms
set into them, and that's why you have variations in forecasts.
Some computer models will you know, go crazy with certain things,
others will be a little more restricted, and it's our
(04:26):
job as meteorologists to look into that. I do you know,
there is a concern that if we lose too much
of that valued upper atmosphere data, then it could skew
the models, giving us, you know, a real headache in
trying to interpret what might be happening in the future,
predicting you know, the forecast, so to speak. It's not
(04:46):
a crisis right now, what we're watching closely in we're
in partnership, and I talk with our friends up in
Boulder at the National Weather Service is where they may
make cuts, what jobs may be eliminated, and does that
have anything to do with public safety. That's my concern,
you know, I don't want I want the forecast to
(05:06):
be as accurate as possible, and that's why I spend
hours digging through model data and details and looking at
as much as I can. You could, literally, Mandy, spend
eight hours looking at the variations and models and the details,
finite details, and never get a forecast complete. At some
point you have to make a decision right and move on.
And so, you know, I spend as much time as
(05:27):
I can, and then I'll tweak it, don't I don't
just throw it down on paper and walk away. I'll
throw it down on paper and go back and look
at it and updated with new model data. But again,
I'm not terribly concerned at this juncture about those weather
balloons and the data. But I am concerned if the
National Weather Service loses frontline people who may be doing
nothing more than watching radar closely to determine if the
(05:48):
storm is going to hail. If it's got lightning, could
have produced a tornado and not getting those warnings out.
By the way, we can see that same data with
our set, but they are the governing body responsible for
alerting the public to those dangers.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
Let me ask one.
Speaker 1 (06:02):
More question, and we only have a couple of minutes
left here, but it's a question I have and this
one said Mandy. I saw the closed cloud formation the
other day. It was like a stack of pancakes. I
think it's called lenticular Can you ask Dave what causes that?
And is that something that happens mostly in Colorado And
I'm going to be from the east coast. I had
never seen those until I was I got here.
Speaker 3 (06:23):
Yeah, so it is. It is just that lenticula. Think
about the curve of a lens, like a like a
you know, your glasses or a contact lens. And what
happens is the wind flow comes out of the west
over the mountains, and as it curls up and over
the peaks, if there's just the right amount of moisture
as it's curving, it condenses that moisture into a cloud
(06:46):
because it's lifting it over the peak, and so you
get these flying saucer or lenticular looking clouds, and if
the wind is strong enough, you can get them in.
Like your listener asked, it can look like pancakes. So
you could have one of the lower elevation one a
little higher. They could be dotted down the entire Front
Range mountains, and they are one of the coolest cloud
formations when they happen. And yes, you're right, those of
(07:08):
us from the east who grew up there, you got
to come west to be able to see that beauty?
Speaker 1 (07:12):
Is that because like the Smoky mountains aren't high enough
or they're not rocky like our mountains are. They're tree
covered for the most part, or any amount of humidity.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
Why does it only happen here?
Speaker 3 (07:22):
What?
Speaker 1 (07:23):
So you need a mountain, I'm guessing, and you need
that upslope wind.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
So yeah, it's the height of our mountains.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
Okay, you know, okay, you know.
Speaker 3 (07:32):
This is This is fine, this is I couldn't believe
the statistic one I heard years and years and years ago.
So our mountains, as we know, we have peaks that
reached thirteen fourteen thousand feet in the atmosphere are fourteen ers. Right,
do you know that the tallest mountain from base to
the top. You know where it is, isn't it?
Speaker 2 (07:50):
Isn't it one of the Hawaiian islands.
Speaker 3 (07:52):
No, it's actually I'm pretty sure it's Mount Washington in
New Hampshire. What so, Yeah, I'm pretty sure. I'll I'll
double check, but I'm almost positive it's Mount Washington in
New Hampshire. And so it's the face of the mountain
is more than six thousand feet tall. Where our mountains
slope up, you go up the footage right right, ten thousand,
you go up to eleven thousand. You know, you start
(08:14):
skiing and you go up, so you think about it.
You're you know, the base of the mountains are not
all the way down to the ground. They're they're already
elevated as you climb up to those fourteen ers.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
Oh, I got it.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
So it's its height versus tall.
Speaker 2 (08:28):
Got it? I understand?
Speaker 3 (08:30):
Dave.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
One last text, Yeah it does.
Speaker 1 (08:32):
Before I let you go, Dave makes a sound that
sound like forecasting the weather is a science rather than
looking outside to.
Speaker 2 (08:38):
See if the rock is wet or dry.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
If only it was just the rock is wet or dry,
that would be it. Dave Fraser, we appreciate you. We'll
talk to again next week, my friend.
Speaker 3 (08:48):
All right, keep an eye on your rock and enjoy
the next couple of days, all right, Thanks Dave, That
is Dave Fraser.
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