December 28, 2011 • 47 mins
Which companies will thrive in 2012 and which ones might fail? What gadget will capture everyone's attention? Who will make the most ridiculous prediction? Join your favorite tech gurus as they peer into the future of tech.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Brought to you by the reinvented two thousand twelve Camray.
It's ready. Are you get in touch with technology? With
tech Stuff from how stuff works dot com. Hello there,
and welcome to tech Stuff. My name is Chris Poulette.
(00:20):
I'm an editor at how stuff works dot com and
sitting across from me, as always, or at least for
the last three years or so, senior writer Jonathan Strickland,
don't stop thinking about tomorrow. Really, yeah, I think you
need to go part your Fleetwood Mac next to the
at Uh. So, today we are going to do our
(00:44):
yearly exercise in futility and pain, which is our predictions
for what is going to happen in the year following.
And this being the year of eleven, we're looking ahead
to twelve and wondering how wrong we can be. Actually,
you know, our predictions for ended up being more right
(01:05):
than not. As I recall, you got to say a
Dreamcast score and I got a World Pool tub. Yes,
so it was much better than my score for the
year previous. Yeah, I I see that those are both
perfectly cromulent scores. So we've we've done really well. Uh,
whether or not we will do as well for this
coming year remains to be seen. Yeah, if you are
(01:26):
a long term fan, especially, you know that we do
this every year, or at least Truff tried to do
this for the last two years. Uh and uh. Also
you probably listened to our recap of TN, which ended
up being epic because all the stuff we predicted was
merely the tip of the iceberg. We had so much
incredible tech news that we never would have predicted. People
(01:46):
like Steve Jobs leaving us and the release of Google Plus,
earthquake in Japan, earthquake in Japan, um, all the all
these things are things that we never would have guests
would happen um when they did so. UM. Although my
first my first prediction does kind of fall into that
category stuff that we really you know, I mean, all
(02:09):
indicators point to this. It's just that we can't know
right now exactly how big an impact it's going to make.
But mine, my first prediction, is all about economic uncertainty,
So it was uncertain whether you were going to do
that or not. Economic markets around the world are in
trouble right right now. You've got you've got the situation
(02:29):
in Greece, which pretty much when about as bad as
it possibly can you have other situations in Italy there
there's a lot of concern that the European market is
in major Uh, there's a major risk that it could
it could falter and fall apart. Then there's the worry
about how that fallout would affect the rest of the world.
(02:50):
So perhaps the United States, which already seems to be
kind of in its own funk economically speaking, could follow suit.
There's a lot of worry abo what this could mean.
And frankly, no matter how it turns out, whether it
ends up just being a small blip or a massive catastrophe,
it's going to affect technology because you know, technology runs
(03:13):
on not just electricity but money. And as the this
situation gets more and more complex and uncertain, I think
we're going to see that kind of effect the moves
that companies are going to make in the technology space.
And that might mean that, uh, we'll see we may
see some companies go under. You know, companies that are
(03:35):
kind of on the brink already might might disappear, become
acquired for a song. Because this of this environment, we
might see some scale back. We could see that scale
back coming in the form of fewer products being released,
or perhaps even layoffs or restructuring. Uh. I really think
(03:58):
that because the there is such uncertainty that we're going
to see a lot of stories that in somewhere another
relate back to that. I know that's not very specific.
It's kind of a gimme prediction. It's not really a
specific prediction. But that's one of the reasons why some
of the other predictions I've made or thought about are
(04:18):
really tenuous, because the economic situation is so serious and
so unpredictable that a lot of them could hinge on
it going one way versus another. So that's also me
covering my butt for some of my other predictions I'll
be making. All right, Well, I didn't write these down
in an order necessarily that I um, I want to
(04:41):
release them, so I think I think I'm basing mine
on that. I think one of the first things that happened,
and it could very well happen by the end of
the year, is that Yahoo will get purchased by someone else. Um. There,
there's already talk right now. As of now, we're we
didn't mentioned more more recording. This recording us in at
(05:02):
the very end of the first week in December or
partial week actually the second second so and then this
has already been in the news, so the Chinese firm
Ali Baba might some of these predictions may end up
being predictions for the last month of December or eleven
rather than uh than for twelve, because we frankly don't
(05:22):
know how it's gonna turn out. I have a similar
prediction to that, saying that yeah, who will either get
sold or will break up into various pieces that get
gobbled up by different companies. There are a lot of
different properties in Yahoo that I think has still have value,
things like and also would make a big impact if
they were to go away, like yeah, who Mail? That
(05:42):
would be pretty catastrophic if that went away. So uh yeah,
I think that something's yeah whom. If y'all who gets
spot by Ali Baba, that could means some pretty big
changes down the line. But yeah, this I think would
be the last year for Yahoo as the company that
(06:04):
we we know now. Maybe that whoever buys Yahoo, if
that does indeed happen, tries to keep it as its
own separate identity, but it's going to be a different animal,
right right. Another financial related one, I think the A
T and T and T Mobile USA merger is destined
to fail. Um. Again, this is a low hanging for eyah,
(06:26):
have some some gimmes. And I'm based on everything that's
come out in the news in the last uh month
or so, really the last two weeks. Um, A lot
of people are concerned about the competition problems that will
cause here in the United States, and um, I just
don't think it's gonna go. Yeah. If it does happen,
it's going to be such a dramatic, uh departure from
(06:49):
the original deal that it's going to look like something
different anyway. Like right now, a T and T is
is suggesting it would sell off a large amount of
T Mobiles assets to other companies in order to avoid
this UH antitrust issue. But whether or not that will
be enough for that deal to actually go through remains
(07:10):
to be seen. I'm I'm skeptical as well. Yeah. Now, UM,
I want to point out that one of the things
they're talking about is a joint venture between the two
if if the merger fails. Um, And I'm not counting
that as the merger going through. Um. So I mean
I'm being literal when I say that. Well, and you know,
this is another time to point out that, uh that
(07:33):
if it weren't for other political issues that are going
on right now, uh, this merger might not have been
such a big red flag. That was a red flag
for everyone in the tech industry who was worried that, uh,
the number one or number two and number four carriers
joining together could end up really reducing innovation and causing
(07:55):
a reduction and competition and just be bad for consumers overall.
But now we also have political movements like the occupy movement,
which are bringing more attention to the way governments treat
companies versus the way they treat individual citizens. And I
think that kind of focus has also really hurt the
(08:16):
chances for that merger going through because now everyone's feeling
much more cautious about this, because the uproar is getting
louder and louder. Uh, let me do one, because I've
just commented on two of yours. Um, how about the
RIM is going to undergo an executive shuffle. I think
(08:39):
I think at some point in we're going to see
a shake up in RIM's executive ranks, whether or not
this finally means we'll get down to one CEO for
rem as opposed to the co C e O S.
I don't know, but I think that shareholders are going
to demand. You know, REM has had a couple of
(08:59):
was a tough year for REM, and I think if
if they don't do something dramatic at the organizational level, uh,
shareholders are not going to continue supporting the company because
it's They're gonna be worried about the decisions being made there.
So I expect that sometime in twelve we're going to
see a big shake up in the executive structure. All right, Um,
(09:23):
I made considerably more predictions this year than I did
last year. So do you do you do you want
to go again? Or you want me to know you
go ahead? Okay, all right? Um? Other financial stuff this
is this is another gimme. Although we've been talking about
it for years. I think Facebook is finally ready to
have an initial public offering of stock and I think
it's really gonna happen this time. I also think that
(09:44):
they're going to hit one billion users before the end
of which is the million now, so I think they'll
hit a billion users before the end of the year.
And also, yeah, I think they will go public, So
I think they're gonna get that was it ten billion
that they're hoping for with an initial public offering, their
value that a hundred billion. I think it's a ten billion.
(10:05):
I p o that that at least that was the
most recent rumor I read. Um, I think that's gonna
happen too. I agree. Um, Here's okay, I have a
crazy one. This is one that I think. I don't
I don't think this is really going to happen. I
really don't think it's gonna happen. But I wanted to
have a crazy prediction. So here's my crazy prediction. Google
(10:26):
purchases Twitter. Really Yeah, because Twitter, I mean really, Twitter
has been sticking around for ages and ages and ages,
and it uh somewhat defiantly because even now, even where
it has its limited advertisement model and and I just
(10:47):
can't imagine it's pulling in the revenue. It needs to
be a really viable business, right, I mean, it's mostly
still existing or it's it's been it's traditionally, it's it's
existed upon venture capitalists investing money into the company, and
I think, uh, you know, you can only keep that
up for so long before people just lose faith and
they won't pour money into it. No matter how important
(11:09):
that services. I think Google is the company that would,
just like Google did with YouTube, I think Google would
would take up the Twitter in that sense too, and
also say like, now we can treat you just like
we did Jaiku. So every and like and like in
like a year, it'll be gone. No. I think that
that's my crazy prediction. And again I don't really believe it,
(11:32):
but I wanted to predict it. Okay, all right, It's
funny because I keep looking for segways, and I keep
seeing multiple segways that I could take. I think I'll
stick with the Google thing. I thought you're gonna make
a prediction about segways. No, not no actual segways, not
the segways. Um. I although people have been predicting it's demise,
(11:54):
I don't think it's I think it's crazy to predict
that Google Plus will will just die. I think Google
Plus will slowly increase its user base over the course
of and uh some modest gains. Yeah, I think it. Well,
it's funny because once people got let in, uh and
they started not using it in droves. I think people
(12:18):
really haven't given it as much of a shakedown as
they need to. And I think that, especially now that
Google is redesigning its user interface to promote Google Plus
more thoroughly and making it it's sort of a hub
for people's um attention. I think it will gradually. I
don't think it's gonna, you know, beat out Facebook next year,
but I do think that it's going to people are
(12:38):
gonna go, no, you know what, this is just not
so bad. I kind of like it. Unless they've been
adding functionality over the course of a few months, it's
been open to you. I think it'll grow. It looks
to me like Google Plus. His journey is very similar
to what I saw on Twitter, and that there was
a quick rush to kind of check out what this
new toy was, and then a very sharp drop off
(12:59):
as people thought this isn't what I wanted it to
be and they leave, and then just slow gains after
that until more and more people are using it. I mean,
I still have several thousand people following me on Google Plus,
and that's more than I have on Twitter. Um, and it's, uh,
you know, it's it's still a very good tool to
engage people now. Granted, a lot of the people who
(13:20):
follow me end up looking like they are some sort
of bought or something, or it's just a an account
that's made in order to repost other people's stuff that
there's nothing original in there. You go and you look
at the uh the posts that the person made, and
they're all shares of some other person's posts, so they're
(13:40):
not like anything original. A friend of mine complained about
that just yesterday, literally, and I think Google has been
removing some of those two because my my follower numbers
have been fluctuing. Either that or I'm driving people away,
which is also possible. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna Yeah,
I'm not gonna negate that. Uh here's one of my
others guesses just a while us. Uh So in twelve,
(14:02):
I think it has to do this for this, for
for it to stay together. But Netflix gets its act together,
in which may possibly include letting read Hastings go. Might
include that because read Hastings I mean eleven was had
a series of missteps for Netflix, and Netflix lost a
(14:25):
lot of the support and uh an admiration in the
tech community starting in the summer of eleven when it
announced that it was changing the pricing plans for streaming
versus DVD plus streaming versus DVD only. And then then,
of course they alienated even more people when there was
(14:45):
the announcement that Netflix was going to split into two
different companies where one would just do DVD distribution and
the other one would do digital uh. And then when
they went back on that, they got even more derision,
mostly because they're like, well, if you're gonna make a stand,
at least stick to it. You made a choice that
I hate, but then you went back to the choice
that I hated slightly less, so I hate you more
(15:07):
now I like, wait that what? So? Yeah, I think
Netflix has been battered around a lot. In some cases
it was you know, you understandable at least on the
part of the people who are upset, you can understand
why they're upset. In other cases, I think it might
be one of those like you just heap more and
more abuse on as it goes on. But I think
that the company has to do something in twelve to
(15:28):
recapture some of that good faith. That might mean Read
Hastings has to go. Although personally, you know, I have
no problem with the guy, so I don't. I don't know,
But I'm not a shareholder either. I'm not I'm not
a stakeholder in Netflix, so um, I'm not you know,
I don't have much to say about it on that sense,
so we'll see. Yeah. I think they actually made some
(15:49):
some decent decisions, but made them at a bad time.
They made drastic changes to the service when the public
was not ready to And Netflix is doing some stuff
that's similar to things we've seen Apple do in the past,
in the sense that in order to reach the world
that Netflix wants us to be in, that being a
world where digital distribution is the norm. In order to
(16:12):
reach that world, you have to make some pretty tough
sacrifices and force people's hands to adopt to the new model,
because if you don't know, everyone drags their feet and
progress is very slow. Apple does the same thing when
Apple sees the opportunity to support one future technology, but
it means that you have to wait for an older
technology to die out. Apple just stop supporting the old technology,
(16:34):
and then they're like, well, here's the thing. We're forcing
you now to adopt this, and you might not like it,
you might kick and screen, but this, trust us, this
is better for you. And I think the problem is that, uh,
Netflix did this and probably didn't do it as smoothly
as Apple did or as convincingly and so uh they
got a lot of of resistance. Plus Apple is a
(16:56):
smaller player in its own market for compute huoters anyway,
and uh, Netflix is the dominant um digital media digital
DVD really when you get down to it. Okay, next
one for you? Um, okay, I'll go with one of
my my vague ones. Actually this is probably my most
vague one. Um, Facebook will make some huge acquisition that
(17:19):
will all go huhh over. Um. I don't think it'll
be Yahoo, but it's gonna They're gonna acquire somebody and
you're going, but what what's that gonna do? Yeah, PepsiCo interesting?
Facebook the choice for the new generation. Can I get
(17:40):
a Facebook free? If you want a Facebook, you're gonna
have to pay for it? Facebook on my tab? Um,
So anyway, Yeah, I think I think they're gonna make
any I mean, it's not like, uh, you know, if
Google purchase Twitter, you go yeah, but I mean, you know,
social media and of course you know. But yeah, I
think Facebook's and it may not be somebody that's bad
(18:01):
for Facebook, but it's gonna be something that we're gonna go.
But why do you need that? Um, so you know
it's it's a loose prediction. But you know, I wouldn't
have said if I had said Google would launch a
social network in I mean sort of along those lines,
I mean, like Facebook and Spotify, that was kind of surprising.
I mean you would imagine, like I mean, it wouldn't
(18:22):
have been hard to imagine Spotify incorporating the Facebook connect
as a way to connect to Spotify in the United States,
but to make it the way is kind of well,
that was unusual. Let's say, if if Facebook gobbled up Twitter,
that would be one thing. But I'm talking like Facebook
gobbles up Xerox? What why? Why on? Or how aboutould
(18:42):
you do that Facebook gobbles up like Hulu or something
something like that? Something unusual? It doesn't quite make sense,
all right? How about? Um, here's this one's kind of
a gimme in a way. This is the year is
the year at E three we will see the next
generation consoles from Microsoft and Sonya. So we'll see the
(19:04):
predicted that two years ago and got my rear end
handed to me on a platter. Yeah, two years running. Actually,
because I think you I think you've predicted in two
thousand nine and in two thousand ten. I think two
thousand twelve is the year. Well, we've heard some rumors already.
We've heard rumors that the successor to the three sixty
will have connect like functionality built directly into the console,
(19:25):
and that it will be even more advanced to be
able to do things like to tell what mood you
are in, or even be able to read your lips. Yeah,
so there's that rumor. And I've also read rumors that
Sony's next UM console, the PlayStation four or whatever it
might be called, will also contain some sort of connect
functionality built into it. So there's a lot of a
(19:47):
lot of money being put towards this whole connect style
of gaming and interaction UH and and hopefully that will
mean that we're going to see even more UH innovative
games and gameplay modes. I think a lot of the
games that we've been seeing are just scratching the surface
because people are still figuring out how to best use
this interface, how to best leverage it. And that's that's
(20:08):
true whenever any new unit user interface comes out. You know,
the first few things that come out are kind of interesting,
but they're almost more like toys than anything really useful.
And then as the technology mature, as we start seeing
assuming that people adopted, we start seeing more compelling products.
So yeah, I think at E three we're going to
(20:30):
see at least a preview of the next Microsoft console
and the next Sony console. It may may not come
out in twelve, but we'll at least get our first preview. Okay,
all right, Yeah, I have a several game uh predictions. Um,
I think the one that's closest to that, sticking with
my segway idea, would be the we u Um, which
(20:52):
is supposed to come out. Um, I think it's going
to be a minor hit. I don't think. I think
I think it will sell. The three DS is actually
their sales have been increasing recently, so that's started to
climb out of a slump. So maybe Nintendo is like
on the upswing of its dip. Yeah, because I'd say
in twenty eleven it did kind of start to falter
a little bit. Yeah, but but once Um Games for
(21:16):
the three D s Storty coming out, like the Mario
Games Story coming out for the three DS, the sales
started to improve. So again Nintendo banking on that intellectual
property that has served them so well in the past.
So yeah, maybe that We You would also have an
initial success, especially if they're able to target not just
the casual gamers, but the loyal like hard more hardcore gamers,
(21:38):
not like hardcore in the sense of I need to
you know, there has to be body limbs flying all
over the screen for me to buy a game, but
that you know, they're the dedicated gamers, the people who
who will spend a lot of time and money that
will go out, they'll buy the latest games as they
come out. Yeah, I think I think the The We
You will be a hit among a lot of those people.
But I don't think it's gonna catch on as quickly
(22:00):
as The We itself did when it was released. I
don't think there's gonna be the same line. I think
it's gonna be sort of a similar at adoption rate
as the three D S where people go, yeah, okay,
but it's we don't really have to have that, And
it's rumored to be more expensive than We was when
it launched. So that may also especially if if again,
(22:21):
if that economic uncertainty also means that there's a downturn
in general, then people may be more careful with their
money and there may be less consumer spending. And that's
why I'm saying a lot of the things I'm predicting
hinge on the economy because in some cases, companies may say,
you know what, We're gonna hold off introducing this product
line until and see if maybe the economic outlook is
(22:43):
better than that. That sometimes happens. Um. Okay, So sticking
with Nintendo, here's another crazy prediction, this one. I I
go back and forth on this one. Okay, So Nintendo
begins to develop a smartphone. Wow. So the idea that
Nintendo decides to get into this, uh, take the next
(23:06):
plunge and go into the smartphone realm. Either they partner
with someone where a very specific partner is going to
have access to some of Nintendo's intellectual properties, or they
specifically go into the business of developing a smartphone that
is branded with the Nintendo where you can buy Nintendo
games through the phone's ecosystem, and that it is essentially
(23:30):
the next step in their handheld gaming market, because that's
where handheld gaming is right now, is in the smartphone market.
And if you don't if you don't join that, then
you might as well just get out of that industry
the handheld gaming units are. It's harder and harder to
sell one of those that doesn't have a phone in it. Okay, well,
that's actually, uh in contrast with what you were saying
(23:52):
a moment ago, and but in more in line with that,
I had predicted that Nintendo is going to need to
reduce the price that the three D s again. And
it might. It might even. I mean, the sales that
kind of bounced up might very well be like end
of the year Christmas present kind of thing. Right, So
those sales figures I mean to say, not sales like
sales prices, but sales figures. Um, it may not be
(24:14):
that the three DS gets widespread adoption like the other
Nintendo handheld systems until we see at another price drop.
It was dramatic to see a price drop happened within
the first half year of the three ys being on
the shelves. I have another one of those coming up
that's very similar to that. Okay, well, I have one
that this is a question really not so much a prediction,
(24:36):
because there's actually a rumor out right now as we
record this, which is again early December. There's a rumor
and it's been going around for a while, but I've
just seen it get traction recently that the iPad three
or the successor to the iPad two, whatever it might
be called, if it's had two plus or whatever two
s that it will have a three D screen so
(25:00):
that you'll be able to look at stuff in three D.
That is the rumor. Here's my prediction. I don't think
it's gonna happen. And here's here's my reasoning why I
don't think it's gonna happen. Uh, it's it's actually got
multiple levels to it. One is that the three D thing,
it's an experience that doesn't it's not universal, okay, Like
(25:23):
there are people who have vision issues or whatever who
cannot see the three D images. Uh, it's very easy
to get it wrong so that you might you know,
you if you have to design a screen for someone
and you have to make it adjustable, because if you
don't make it adjustable, if you make it try and
make it one size fits all, they're gonna be a
lot of people where it's not going to be the
best effects because our eyes are space differently, you know,
(25:46):
Like my eyes are not as far apart as someone
else's eyes, and someone else's eyes might be um closer
together than my eyes are, and that affects how we
would see a screen that has three D projection in
it um. So because of that, Apple would have to
design some sort of of ability to like the three ds,
to adjust the level of three D, which you could
(26:08):
get it just right without giving yourself a migraine trying
to stare at this thing. But ultimately, the number one
thing that I think suggests that a three D screen
is not a good idea for an iPad is the interface.
The interface is a touch screen interface. Why would you
create a that's a two dimensional interface? Right, Yeah, that's true.
(26:28):
Why would you have a two dimensional interface to interact
with a three dimensional screen? Yeah, you would need like
an iPad cube. Yeah, it doesn't make any sense. Even
if you were to include the camera so that the
camera sees you, you would have to figure out how
to teach the processor to understand depth, and you would
have to learn the depth. So like, if I have
a three dimensional virtual environment, then that means I can
(26:52):
I can stack data in lots of different ways. But
if my interface is still a touch screen, I can
effectively only put it horizontally in vertically. I can't go
deep because there's no way to select that data. I
always se like something that's in the background versus the foreground.
In that case, UM, I think it's just too clunky.
It doesn't make sense. The only way it would make
(27:13):
sense is if you were just doing it for the
effect of watching media. So if you wanted to watch
a three D movie on your iPad, I think that
that doesn't make sense financially to put that kind of
uh investment in for something that's so limited and functionality.
So it may very well turn out that I'm wrong,
(27:34):
and maybe an Apple, of course is very good at
at designing things that that work in ways I did
not anticipate. I mean, the iPad is the perfect example
of that. But based upon what I know about three
D tech, and especially glasses free three D tech, and
based upon the interface that the iPad uses, I just
don't see it being a thing. So I'm gonna say
(27:58):
that the iPad three or two S or whatever it's
going to be called will not have a glasses free
three D screen included. Yeah. Now, I have seen additional
rumors that the screen will have a higher resolution display.
It's sort of a gimme, I think, um people have
been wanting that since the first iPad. As soon as
(28:20):
I Pad iPhone four came out with the retina display,
people were hoping that the iPad two would support the
same thing. Now, of course it did not, but now
there are hopes that the next generation iPad will have
a retina display. Now, over the past couple of years,
Jonavan has made a couple of predictions that you know
where he was really going out on a limb and
and uh turn out, you know, remember the iPad, the
(28:42):
big failure. It was going to be uh so, so anyway,
so anyway, I decided to go ahead and and and
do one of my own where this this I could
very easily get t boned on this one. There have
been rumors that Apple is coming out with televisions, and
I think I do think that's eventually going to happen.
(29:02):
I think they're moving into compete with people like Sony
and Samsung and LG. But I don't think you're gonna
see the first ones come out in Okay, I disagree. Yeah,
he's going to come out with its first Apple TV
in twelve. Yeah, a real Apple TV, an Apple TV,
which not exists. But it's not an actual television with
Apple functionality built into it, not a set top box,
(29:24):
It's built into the television unit itself. So I say
that comes out. That was one of my predictions. Awesome.
So uh, we very rarely do that, since we work
independently on I don't necessarily feel strongly about it. Again,
but I'm willing. I'm I'm willing to put my neck
out on that one. So uh yeah, one of us
will be right, one of us will be wrong, which
(29:46):
means that one of us will get a blender and
the other one will get a puppy. All right? Then? Yeah, um,
so was that was that your prediction there? Or well,
how many more do you have left? U don't I
have a handful. I've got a few as well, so
we can we can keep going back and forth. Sort
of a related thing. Um, I I predict that new
(30:07):
Google TV products will be coming out and no one
will care. Yeah, I I have no disagreement there. I
think Google TV. I think it launched too early. It
launched too early with not enough features, and so it
got a very kind of lackluster response and it's going
to be really difficult to fight that off. Even if
(30:30):
Google comes out with a truly compelling product to fight
off the first impression people had that Google Television was
kind of a well, this isn't what I was expecting.
It doesn't feel like it's what I was promised. I
think even if Google comes out with the perfect product now,
it would be an uphill battle because people already have
that impression that's just not what they want. And I
(30:52):
think I think these products also are sort of like DVRs.
I mean, people never really rushed out to buy themselves
a TVO or other stuff, but I mean people have
been adopting them, but it's sort of that under their radar.
It's definitely like the perfect example of the long tail.
You know, it's really a long tail product where you'd
have a few early adopters and their word of mouth
was enough to perpetuate sales, but the sales weren't huge
(31:16):
all in a and they weren't front loaded. They were
just kind of spread out. Um, all right, well here's
one for me. At least one of the big daily
deal sites will go under at least one. So these
are things like living social group on scout Bob. Google
has its own version Google deals, you know, so we're
(31:38):
gonna I think at least one of those is gonna
collapse because there's so the markets flooded, there's so many
of them that I don't think it can sustain all
of them together. Okay, UM, I have one. Apple will
not announce NFC for an iPhone. We won't have near
(32:01):
field communications. I think I think it's probable that Google
wallet will slowly grow sort of the same thing. Is
that what we were just talking about. I just don't
think people care right now here in the United States
about near field communication, and I don't think the iPhone.
I don't think Apple is going to rush out to
UH to meet Google on that field of battle. Yet.
I think part of it is that more and more
(32:23):
UH emphasis in the tech world anyway, not necessarily on
the individual consumer, but in the tech world is on
UH distribution centers like Amazon. So it's going further away
from the point of sale retail shops in the first place.
So making that point of sale thing easier doesn't really
a lot of people that there's no validity to that
(32:44):
because that's not their shopping experience, or at least in
the tech world, that's how it seems now like again
from the average consumer who is going out and shopping
for Christmas presents, Maybe that's not the case. Maybe there
are the person who hits those brick and border stores
over and over again, in which case they might really
welcome near field community patients solutions. How about Microsoft Windows
(33:04):
tablets will debut to modest results, like they're not gonna
They're not gonna take a big chunk out of the
tablet market. I think I think I the the iPad
will still be firmly in the lead. I think Android
will be in second and Windows might take third. They
(33:25):
might actually overtake all those touch pads that were sold
in late yea. Um. Actually I had written this down
on the Predictions episode and I didn't move it over
to my predictions list for I think HP is going
to do something useful with web os. I think it
may actually even hang onto it. So you think they're
(33:47):
reversing what uh Leo said back in uh the former
CEO of HP said back in the summer of eleven,
where HP was supposedly going to get out of the
consumer computer business as well as halt developing webOS. And
now both of those statements seem to be Um, well,
(34:09):
it seemed to be in question. Yeah, now that the
announcement may come by the end of but I think
I think they're going to real Well, a lot of
people said what are you doing? Why are you doing that? Um?
And I do think although the tablets weren't selling before
the discounts, um, I think the price had more to
do that with that than the webOS part. Okay, So
(34:31):
I think is going to be the swan song for
the compact disc mhm. I think that we're going to
see lots of companies cut way back on manufacturing discs
and start to rely more on digital distribution as their
primary means of getting music out to customers for DVDs
(34:53):
or just CDs. CDs. I think DVD still have a
little way to go, mostly because, um, it's a lot
It's still easier for someone to download a CD than
it is for them to You can stream movies pretty easily.
Downloading a film the requires that you have more space
and a faster connection to do it in a way
that has a good experience for the consumers. So I
(35:15):
think I think we're not quite there yet. I mean,
most most of our listeners are probably there, like most
of our listeners are probably in the group of people
who have the kind of connections and and equipment where
downloading a film wouldn't be a huge deal. But for
the vast majority of people out there, the big audience
that you have to aim for because that's where your
(35:35):
money is going to be. I don't think they're there yet,
but they are there as far as CD sales go,
So I think CDs aren't going to disappear, but I
think they're going to be more rare, and that you'll
more likely have to buy things through some sort of
digital distribution, either iTunes or Amazon or directly from whatever
the music label is, or even the band in some cases,
(35:57):
because we may we may. This may be the getting
of the end for the major labels as we recognize
them now. They'll still, I think, be around. I just
don't think that they'll be as big a power player
as they were in the decades past. Um. Since this
(36:18):
is I don't really have a good segue for this one,
so I'll throw out my left field thing. I think
that Canonical, the manufacturers of uh several different flavors of
lenox um, will ditch Unity as the main interface for
a Buntu because it has gone over like the biggest
(36:38):
lead balloon of all lead balloons. Yeah, uh yeah, there's
not a lot of love for it. I think they
may try to refurbish it, but I think they may
go back to gnome as the main gnome and clature
for for it. Um. Of course, it's easy. It's easy
enough to to choose it. And that's something that I
read recently in a in a critique of the new interface. Um.
(37:02):
You know, it's it's not like anybody has to stick
with Unity. You can go with any number of other
interfaces pretty easily. Um. But yeah, there's there's been so
much uh complaint about it. I think that they're gonna
go with something else or or come, you know, maybe
completely overhaul. But I'm gonna say for the official prediction
that they're gonna ditch it. Um. So what's next? I
(37:25):
only have one left out of my official predictions unless
I think of some while we're talking, um, and this one. Uh,
it's it's it's such a lame one. I don't know
why it chose this as the last one. Uh. But
you know, we've got another election year coming up. I
think that tech is going to play the biggest role
ever in election history this year I want to give
(37:49):
I know, that's what I said. It was lame. I
was like, you know, the more I wrote this down,
the more I'm like, and water is wet, so it
already has. So you know what, I'm not gonna I'm
not gonna really even next year, I'm not going to
count that. I mean, normally I would win at least
a donkey or an elephant out of that one. But
I think, uh, I think that one is such a
GIMMI that you know, people who people who would be
(38:12):
visiting our planet for the first time would be able
to tell you that within five minutes of note looking around.
So yeah, okay, I have well I have several, but
a couple of them I'm just gonna ditch. Um. I
have four left. I think that um that I want
to keep going with. One is that now, keeping in
mind this, it's been out for a short time. So
(38:33):
even though it released in I'm gonna say that in
the kindle fire will be a hit. I think it's
I think it's gonna do really well over the next year.
So you're you're calling it like a true success, Like
a true success, I think it might be the first. Um,
I agree with you. I think it might be the
first non iPad to truly succeed in the market. I mean,
(38:56):
we've got lots of other non iPad tablets out there,
but I don't think any of them have been hailed
as a true success. And HPS touchpad did. Okay, I
don't count. You don't count that that's a fluke because
of the pricing. That doesn't mean people would have bought
(39:17):
anything and a hundred dollars if it were in a
tablet for probably like you know, if it was a
Window seven tablet for a hundred bucks, that probably would
have gone out and rushed out and bought those. Um.
But yeah, I think that the the the Kindle Fire
has the potential to be the the number two tablet.
Like if you're talking about specific models, uh, because again,
(39:39):
the Android tablet space is so diverse that it's hard
for any one kind of tablet to get true success
in that field because there's just so many different ones,
and you know, it requires that the consumer be informed
about his or her choice. You know, when you go
if you just know what a tablet is and you
know what Android is, but you don't know anything Beyond that,
(39:59):
going into a store and shopping for Android tablets is
maddening because there's so many different kinds and you don't
necessarily know which ones are really gonna be good versus um,
some that are just going to be slow and unresponsive
and and maybe running Android one point six, you know,
so um And related to that, I say that, and
(40:21):
there's been speculation that the Kindle fire will cause Apple
to lower prices at the iPad. I say, no, I
don't think. I don't think they're gonna do it now.
Apple is has traditionally been sort of that premium kind
of uh product, especially since Steve Jobs came back. Yeah,
I mean there's aimed for that niche. Yeah, that was
(40:43):
that was what. That's kind of their corporate identity. They're
not known for marking down prices in the face of competition.
They're they're known for just pouring even more effort into
innovation and marketing and convincing people that whatever it is
they're coming out with is what you have to have.
I can't you know, I've heard people talk about how
(41:04):
the market forces like netbooks were supposed to bring down
Mac prices. You know, that was the big thing they
didn't really do that either. Now, granted, you could also
say that, well, Apple keeps coming out with more advanced
hardware and then marketing it for the same price as
the previous generation hardware, so in a way, prices are
kind of falling sort of, but not in the traditional sense. Yeah. Yeah, um,
(41:31):
And then let's see I said that Windows will release
two sort of lackluster adoption. Um, and that's twofold. I
think it suffers from the same problem that Lion does
for for the macOS, and that it's got a very
different interface. And yes, before you write me, I know
you can change its metro. Yeah, it's going to the
(41:54):
metro interface. For those of you who don't know, is
the interface for the Windows eight porta bowl devices and
Windows seven portable stuff that's out there now you see
on there if you've seen commercials with a little colorful
boxes on the phones, that's what the Windows eight you
user interface is supposed to look like for computers, Yeah,
which which would work be great if you have a
(42:15):
touch screen monitor, but if you don't have a touch
screen monitor. There's some people who suggest that that particular
way of organizing data is not really that intuitive because
you can't navigate through it as as easily. That's one
of the big things that we've talked about with that.
We're plan on doing a user interface podcast at some point.
(42:37):
We're talk about the design of a user interface and
what goes into that, because there's so much more beyond
just technical uh sex. But you know, we've seen like
kids pick up an iPad and that just they learn
how to navigate that iPad really quickly. You know. It's
it's one of those things that's just very intuitive. Yeah,
(42:57):
So kids intuitively can figure out how to navigate these things.
So there is a, uh, there is a an urge
to move toward that because everyone's like, well, this, this
is there's something here. It's just it's it's almost magical,
like to to use an Apple type phrase. But when
you get it to a desktop modality where there's no
(43:19):
there's not necessarily a touch screen part of the interface,
it's not nearly as intuitive because you're navigating you're not
navigating it the same way you would if you were,
say a touch screen tablet. Yeah, and and and here's
the thing. I mean, yes, you can you can operate
Windows eight in that mode or in a more traditional
mode but they've been marketing it at using the the
(43:40):
Metro stuff on that initial thing. Look what you can
do here. Um. I think if they continue marketing Metro
as the primary interface, people are going to be a
little put off by that and they suffer from another problem.
Windows seven it's really good, um, and people have been
adopting it now. It's it's you know, surpassed Vista in
a option at this point. UM. And I think now
(44:02):
that XP is going out, I think people are just
gonna go with Windows seven unless you know, Microsoft completely
makes it unavailable. This is kind of crazy because when
you think about think about how long XP stuck around, Yeah,
ten years, ten years of XP and then because it works,
and then what happened was people did not like Vista,
or enough people did not like Vista for it to
(44:23):
be a problem, and uh, and then Windows seven came
around it seemed to be a big improvement. It does
seem weird to go from Windows seven to Windows eight
so relatively quickly when you look at how long there
was a a pause from Windows XP to Windows Vista.
And yes there were other versions of Windows that came
(44:44):
out between those, but we're talking about mass adoption here. Yeah,
so I think and mass adoption and and actual like
personal computers as opposed to web servers and things like that.
So I just don't think it's going to take off.
And my my last one, I'm gonna go with my
gimme for the last one. Blizzard will release Diablo three
and it will become a massive hit. Wow, I gotta
(45:09):
get it. I gotta get a demon or something out
of that. I would predict that there will be uh
a dramatic increase in people complaining about right index finger pain.
That's exactly possible directly as a result of blizzards of
blizzards Diablo three releasing. It's going to be a hit. Yeah.
(45:32):
I didn't make any other predictions about any other game
titles that I think might come out and next year
because that that's what Grand Theft All five comes out.
That'll be excited to see. I think that will be
a big success. That's also another gimming people have been
eager for that. But U okay, so here's my final
final prediction. So you came up with it. Last prediction
has nothing to do with tech. I'm done. I predict
(45:55):
this time next year we will be making a prediction
show and we will ignore the fact that the Mayan
calendar is coming at an end, and that we will
just assume that the world will continue going on and
that we will have to predict stuff to happen. All right,
(46:16):
So um yeah for those of you who were you know,
playing on just living it up in twelve because it
was gonna be the final year. Ever, I don't think so.
So alright, alright, well let's wrap this up that those
are our predictions for twenty twelve in the world of technology.
If you guys have any of your own predictions you
(46:36):
would like to share, or you have any other questions
or suggestions for topics you would like us to cover
in future episodes, let us know. So there's an email
that addresses tech Stuff at how stuff works dot com,
or drop us a line on Facebook or Twitter. Are handled.
There is tech stuff hs W and Chris and I
will talk to you again in the future. Be shorted.
(47:00):
Check out our new video podcast, Stuff from the Future.
Join How Stuff Work staff as we explore the most
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(47:21):
Are you
Brought to you by the reinvented two thousand twelve Camray.
It's ready. Are you get in touch with technology? With
tech Stuff from how stuff works dot com. Hello there,
and welcome to tech Stuff. My name is Chris Poulette.
(00:20):
I'm an editor at how stuff works dot com and
sitting across from me, as always, or at least for
the last three years or so, senior writer Jonathan Strickland,
don't stop thinking about tomorrow. Really, yeah, I think you
need to go part your Fleetwood Mac next to the
at Uh. So, today we are going to do our
(00:44):
yearly exercise in futility and pain, which is our predictions
for what is going to happen in the year following.
And this being the year of eleven, we're looking ahead
to twelve and wondering how wrong we can be. Actually,
you know, our predictions for ended up being more right
(01:05):
than not. As I recall, you got to say a
Dreamcast score and I got a World Pool tub. Yes,
so it was much better than my score for the
year previous. Yeah, I I see that those are both
perfectly cromulent scores. So we've we've done really well. Uh,
whether or not we will do as well for this
coming year remains to be seen. Yeah, if you are
(01:26):
a long term fan, especially, you know that we do
this every year, or at least Truff tried to do
this for the last two years. Uh and uh. Also
you probably listened to our recap of TN, which ended
up being epic because all the stuff we predicted was
merely the tip of the iceberg. We had so much
incredible tech news that we never would have predicted. People
(01:46):
like Steve Jobs leaving us and the release of Google Plus,
earthquake in Japan, earthquake in Japan, um, all the all
these things are things that we never would have guests
would happen um when they did so. UM. Although my
first my first prediction does kind of fall into that
category stuff that we really you know, I mean, all
(02:09):
indicators point to this. It's just that we can't know
right now exactly how big an impact it's going to make.
But mine, my first prediction, is all about economic uncertainty,
So it was uncertain whether you were going to do
that or not. Economic markets around the world are in
trouble right right now. You've got you've got the situation
(02:29):
in Greece, which pretty much when about as bad as
it possibly can you have other situations in Italy there
there's a lot of concern that the European market is
in major Uh, there's a major risk that it could
it could falter and fall apart. Then there's the worry
about how that fallout would affect the rest of the world.
(02:50):
So perhaps the United States, which already seems to be
kind of in its own funk economically speaking, could follow suit.
There's a lot of worry abo what this could mean.
And frankly, no matter how it turns out, whether it
ends up just being a small blip or a massive catastrophe,
it's going to affect technology because you know, technology runs
(03:13):
on not just electricity but money. And as the this
situation gets more and more complex and uncertain, I think
we're going to see that kind of effect the moves
that companies are going to make in the technology space.
And that might mean that, uh, we'll see we may
see some companies go under. You know, companies that are
(03:35):
kind of on the brink already might might disappear, become
acquired for a song. Because this of this environment, we
might see some scale back. We could see that scale
back coming in the form of fewer products being released,
or perhaps even layoffs or restructuring. Uh. I really think
(03:58):
that because the there is such uncertainty that we're going
to see a lot of stories that in somewhere another
relate back to that. I know that's not very specific.
It's kind of a gimme prediction. It's not really a
specific prediction. But that's one of the reasons why some
of the other predictions I've made or thought about are
(04:18):
really tenuous, because the economic situation is so serious and
so unpredictable that a lot of them could hinge on
it going one way versus another. So that's also me
covering my butt for some of my other predictions I'll
be making. All right, Well, I didn't write these down
in an order necessarily that I um, I want to
(04:41):
release them, so I think I think I'm basing mine
on that. I think one of the first things that happened,
and it could very well happen by the end of
the year, is that Yahoo will get purchased by someone else. Um. There,
there's already talk right now. As of now, we're we
didn't mentioned more more recording. This recording us in at
(05:02):
the very end of the first week in December or
partial week actually the second second so and then this
has already been in the news, so the Chinese firm
Ali Baba might some of these predictions may end up
being predictions for the last month of December or eleven
rather than uh than for twelve, because we frankly don't
(05:22):
know how it's gonna turn out. I have a similar
prediction to that, saying that yeah, who will either get
sold or will break up into various pieces that get
gobbled up by different companies. There are a lot of
different properties in Yahoo that I think has still have value,
things like and also would make a big impact if
they were to go away, like yeah, who Mail? That
(05:42):
would be pretty catastrophic if that went away. So uh yeah,
I think that something's yeah whom. If y'all who gets
spot by Ali Baba, that could means some pretty big
changes down the line. But yeah, this I think would
be the last year for Yahoo as the company that
(06:04):
we we know now. Maybe that whoever buys Yahoo, if
that does indeed happen, tries to keep it as its
own separate identity, but it's going to be a different animal,
right right. Another financial related one, I think the A
T and T and T Mobile USA merger is destined
to fail. Um. Again, this is a low hanging for eyah,
(06:26):
have some some gimmes. And I'm based on everything that's
come out in the news in the last uh month
or so, really the last two weeks. Um, A lot
of people are concerned about the competition problems that will
cause here in the United States, and um, I just
don't think it's gonna go. Yeah. If it does happen,
it's going to be such a dramatic, uh departure from
(06:49):
the original deal that it's going to look like something
different anyway. Like right now, a T and T is
is suggesting it would sell off a large amount of
T Mobiles assets to other companies in order to avoid
this UH antitrust issue. But whether or not that will
be enough for that deal to actually go through remains
(07:10):
to be seen. I'm I'm skeptical as well. Yeah. Now, UM,
I want to point out that one of the things
they're talking about is a joint venture between the two
if if the merger fails. Um, And I'm not counting
that as the merger going through. Um. So I mean
I'm being literal when I say that. Well, and you know,
this is another time to point out that, uh that
(07:33):
if it weren't for other political issues that are going
on right now, uh, this merger might not have been
such a big red flag. That was a red flag
for everyone in the tech industry who was worried that, uh,
the number one or number two and number four carriers
joining together could end up really reducing innovation and causing
(07:55):
a reduction and competition and just be bad for consumers overall.
But now we also have political movements like the occupy movement,
which are bringing more attention to the way governments treat
companies versus the way they treat individual citizens. And I
think that kind of focus has also really hurt the
(08:16):
chances for that merger going through because now everyone's feeling
much more cautious about this, because the uproar is getting
louder and louder. Uh, let me do one, because I've
just commented on two of yours. Um, how about the
RIM is going to undergo an executive shuffle. I think
(08:39):
I think at some point in we're going to see
a shake up in RIM's executive ranks, whether or not
this finally means we'll get down to one CEO for
rem as opposed to the co C e O S.
I don't know, but I think that shareholders are going
to demand. You know, REM has had a couple of
(08:59):
was a tough year for REM, and I think if
if they don't do something dramatic at the organizational level, uh,
shareholders are not going to continue supporting the company because
it's They're gonna be worried about the decisions being made there.
So I expect that sometime in twelve we're going to
see a big shake up in the executive structure. All right, Um,
(09:23):
I made considerably more predictions this year than I did
last year. So do you do you do you want
to go again? Or you want me to know you
go ahead? Okay, all right? Um? Other financial stuff this
is this is another gimme. Although we've been talking about
it for years. I think Facebook is finally ready to
have an initial public offering of stock and I think
it's really gonna happen this time. I also think that
(09:44):
they're going to hit one billion users before the end
of which is the million now, so I think they'll
hit a billion users before the end of the year.
And also, yeah, I think they will go public, So
I think they're gonna get that was it ten billion
that they're hoping for with an initial public offering, their
value that a hundred billion. I think it's a ten billion.
(10:05):
I p o that that at least that was the
most recent rumor I read. Um, I think that's gonna
happen too. I agree. Um, Here's okay, I have a
crazy one. This is one that I think. I don't
I don't think this is really going to happen. I
really don't think it's gonna happen. But I wanted to
have a crazy prediction. So here's my crazy prediction. Google
(10:26):
purchases Twitter. Really Yeah, because Twitter, I mean really, Twitter
has been sticking around for ages and ages and ages,
and it uh somewhat defiantly because even now, even where
it has its limited advertisement model and and I just
(10:47):
can't imagine it's pulling in the revenue. It needs to
be a really viable business, right, I mean, it's mostly
still existing or it's it's been it's traditionally, it's it's
existed upon venture capitalists investing money into the company, and
I think, uh, you know, you can only keep that
up for so long before people just lose faith and
they won't pour money into it. No matter how important
(11:09):
that services. I think Google is the company that would,
just like Google did with YouTube, I think Google would
would take up the Twitter in that sense too, and
also say like, now we can treat you just like
we did Jaiku. So every and like and like in
like a year, it'll be gone. No. I think that
that's my crazy prediction. And again I don't really believe it,
(11:32):
but I wanted to predict it. Okay, all right, It's
funny because I keep looking for segways, and I keep
seeing multiple segways that I could take. I think I'll
stick with the Google thing. I thought you're gonna make
a prediction about segways. No, not no actual segways, not
the segways. Um. I although people have been predicting it's demise,
(11:54):
I don't think it's I think it's crazy to predict
that Google Plus will will just die. I think Google
Plus will slowly increase its user base over the course
of and uh some modest gains. Yeah, I think it. Well,
it's funny because once people got let in, uh and
they started not using it in droves. I think people
(12:18):
really haven't given it as much of a shakedown as
they need to. And I think that, especially now that
Google is redesigning its user interface to promote Google Plus
more thoroughly and making it it's sort of a hub
for people's um attention. I think it will gradually. I
don't think it's gonna, you know, beat out Facebook next year,
but I do think that it's going to people are
(12:38):
gonna go, no, you know what, this is just not
so bad. I kind of like it. Unless they've been
adding functionality over the course of a few months, it's
been open to you. I think it'll grow. It looks
to me like Google Plus. His journey is very similar
to what I saw on Twitter, and that there was
a quick rush to kind of check out what this
new toy was, and then a very sharp drop off
(12:59):
as people thought this isn't what I wanted it to
be and they leave, and then just slow gains after
that until more and more people are using it. I mean,
I still have several thousand people following me on Google Plus,
and that's more than I have on Twitter. Um, and it's, uh,
you know, it's it's still a very good tool to
engage people now. Granted, a lot of the people who
(13:20):
follow me end up looking like they are some sort
of bought or something, or it's just a an account
that's made in order to repost other people's stuff that
there's nothing original in there. You go and you look
at the uh the posts that the person made, and
they're all shares of some other person's posts, so they're
(13:40):
not like anything original. A friend of mine complained about
that just yesterday, literally, and I think Google has been
removing some of those two because my my follower numbers
have been fluctuing. Either that or I'm driving people away,
which is also possible. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna Yeah,
I'm not gonna negate that. Uh here's one of my
others guesses just a while us. Uh So in twelve,
(14:02):
I think it has to do this for this, for
for it to stay together. But Netflix gets its act together,
in which may possibly include letting read Hastings go. Might
include that because read Hastings I mean eleven was had
a series of missteps for Netflix, and Netflix lost a
(14:25):
lot of the support and uh an admiration in the
tech community starting in the summer of eleven when it
announced that it was changing the pricing plans for streaming
versus DVD plus streaming versus DVD only. And then then,
of course they alienated even more people when there was
(14:45):
the announcement that Netflix was going to split into two
different companies where one would just do DVD distribution and
the other one would do digital uh. And then when
they went back on that, they got even more derision,
mostly because they're like, well, if you're gonna make a stand,
at least stick to it. You made a choice that
I hate, but then you went back to the choice
that I hated slightly less, so I hate you more
(15:07):
now I like, wait that what? So? Yeah, I think
Netflix has been battered around a lot. In some cases
it was you know, you understandable at least on the
part of the people who are upset, you can understand
why they're upset. In other cases, I think it might
be one of those like you just heap more and
more abuse on as it goes on. But I think
that the company has to do something in twelve to
(15:28):
recapture some of that good faith. That might mean Read
Hastings has to go. Although personally, you know, I have
no problem with the guy, so I don't. I don't know,
But I'm not a shareholder either. I'm not I'm not
a stakeholder in Netflix, so um, I'm not you know,
I don't have much to say about it on that sense,
so we'll see. Yeah. I think they actually made some
(15:49):
some decent decisions, but made them at a bad time.
They made drastic changes to the service when the public
was not ready to And Netflix is doing some stuff
that's similar to things we've seen Apple do in the past,
in the sense that in order to reach the world
that Netflix wants us to be in, that being a
world where digital distribution is the norm. In order to
(16:12):
reach that world, you have to make some pretty tough
sacrifices and force people's hands to adopt to the new model,
because if you don't know, everyone drags their feet and
progress is very slow. Apple does the same thing when
Apple sees the opportunity to support one future technology, but
it means that you have to wait for an older
technology to die out. Apple just stop supporting the old technology,
(16:34):
and then they're like, well, here's the thing. We're forcing
you now to adopt this, and you might not like it,
you might kick and screen, but this, trust us, this
is better for you. And I think the problem is that, uh,
Netflix did this and probably didn't do it as smoothly
as Apple did or as convincingly and so uh they
got a lot of of resistance. Plus Apple is a
(16:56):
smaller player in its own market for compute huoters anyway,
and uh, Netflix is the dominant um digital media digital
DVD really when you get down to it. Okay, next
one for you? Um, okay, I'll go with one of
my my vague ones. Actually this is probably my most
vague one. Um, Facebook will make some huge acquisition that
(17:19):
will all go huhh over. Um. I don't think it'll
be Yahoo, but it's gonna They're gonna acquire somebody and
you're going, but what what's that gonna do? Yeah, PepsiCo interesting?
Facebook the choice for the new generation. Can I get
(17:40):
a Facebook free? If you want a Facebook, you're gonna
have to pay for it? Facebook on my tab? Um,
So anyway, Yeah, I think I think they're gonna make
any I mean, it's not like, uh, you know, if
Google purchase Twitter, you go yeah, but I mean, you know,
social media and of course you know. But yeah, I
think Facebook's and it may not be somebody that's bad
(18:01):
for Facebook, but it's gonna be something that we're gonna go.
But why do you need that? Um, so you know
it's it's a loose prediction. But you know, I wouldn't
have said if I had said Google would launch a
social network in I mean sort of along those lines,
I mean, like Facebook and Spotify, that was kind of surprising.
I mean you would imagine, like I mean, it wouldn't
(18:22):
have been hard to imagine Spotify incorporating the Facebook connect
as a way to connect to Spotify in the United States,
but to make it the way is kind of well,
that was unusual. Let's say, if if Facebook gobbled up Twitter,
that would be one thing. But I'm talking like Facebook
gobbles up Xerox? What why? Why on? Or how aboutould
(18:42):
you do that Facebook gobbles up like Hulu or something
something like that? Something unusual? It doesn't quite make sense,
all right? How about? Um, here's this one's kind of
a gimme in a way. This is the year is
the year at E three we will see the next
generation consoles from Microsoft and Sonya. So we'll see the
(19:04):
predicted that two years ago and got my rear end
handed to me on a platter. Yeah, two years running. Actually,
because I think you I think you've predicted in two
thousand nine and in two thousand ten. I think two
thousand twelve is the year. Well, we've heard some rumors already.
We've heard rumors that the successor to the three sixty
will have connect like functionality built directly into the console,
(19:25):
and that it will be even more advanced to be
able to do things like to tell what mood you
are in, or even be able to read your lips. Yeah,
so there's that rumor. And I've also read rumors that
Sony's next UM console, the PlayStation four or whatever it
might be called, will also contain some sort of connect
functionality built into it. So there's a lot of a
(19:47):
lot of money being put towards this whole connect style
of gaming and interaction UH and and hopefully that will
mean that we're going to see even more UH innovative
games and gameplay modes. I think a lot of the
games that we've been seeing are just scratching the surface
because people are still figuring out how to best use
this interface, how to best leverage it. And that's that's
(20:08):
true whenever any new unit user interface comes out. You know,
the first few things that come out are kind of interesting,
but they're almost more like toys than anything really useful.
And then as the technology mature, as we start seeing
assuming that people adopted, we start seeing more compelling products.
So yeah, I think at E three we're going to
(20:30):
see at least a preview of the next Microsoft console
and the next Sony console. It may may not come
out in twelve, but we'll at least get our first preview. Okay,
all right, Yeah, I have a several game uh predictions. Um,
I think the one that's closest to that, sticking with
my segway idea, would be the we u Um, which
(20:52):
is supposed to come out. Um, I think it's going
to be a minor hit. I don't think. I think
I think it will sell. The three DS is actually
their sales have been increasing recently, so that's started to
climb out of a slump. So maybe Nintendo is like
on the upswing of its dip. Yeah, because I'd say
in twenty eleven it did kind of start to falter
a little bit. Yeah, but but once Um Games for
(21:16):
the three D s Storty coming out, like the Mario
Games Story coming out for the three DS, the sales
started to improve. So again Nintendo banking on that intellectual
property that has served them so well in the past.
So yeah, maybe that We You would also have an
initial success, especially if they're able to target not just
the casual gamers, but the loyal like hard more hardcore gamers,
(21:38):
not like hardcore in the sense of I need to
you know, there has to be body limbs flying all
over the screen for me to buy a game, but
that you know, they're the dedicated gamers, the people who
who will spend a lot of time and money that
will go out, they'll buy the latest games as they
come out. Yeah, I think I think the The We
You will be a hit among a lot of those people.
But I don't think it's gonna catch on as quickly
(22:00):
as The We itself did when it was released. I
don't think there's gonna be the same line. I think
it's gonna be sort of a similar at adoption rate
as the three D S where people go, yeah, okay,
but it's we don't really have to have that, And
it's rumored to be more expensive than We was when
it launched. So that may also especially if if again,
(22:21):
if that economic uncertainty also means that there's a downturn
in general, then people may be more careful with their
money and there may be less consumer spending. And that's
why I'm saying a lot of the things I'm predicting
hinge on the economy because in some cases, companies may say,
you know what, We're gonna hold off introducing this product
line until and see if maybe the economic outlook is
(22:43):
better than that. That sometimes happens. Um. Okay, So sticking
with Nintendo, here's another crazy prediction, this one. I I
go back and forth on this one. Okay, So Nintendo
begins to develop a smartphone. Wow. So the idea that
Nintendo decides to get into this, uh, take the next
(23:06):
plunge and go into the smartphone realm. Either they partner
with someone where a very specific partner is going to
have access to some of Nintendo's intellectual properties, or they
specifically go into the business of developing a smartphone that
is branded with the Nintendo where you can buy Nintendo
games through the phone's ecosystem, and that it is essentially
(23:30):
the next step in their handheld gaming market, because that's
where handheld gaming is right now, is in the smartphone market.
And if you don't if you don't join that, then
you might as well just get out of that industry
the handheld gaming units are. It's harder and harder to
sell one of those that doesn't have a phone in it. Okay, well,
that's actually, uh in contrast with what you were saying
(23:52):
a moment ago, and but in more in line with that,
I had predicted that Nintendo is going to need to
reduce the price that the three D s again. And
it might. It might even. I mean, the sales that
kind of bounced up might very well be like end
of the year Christmas present kind of thing. Right, So
those sales figures I mean to say, not sales like
sales prices, but sales figures. Um, it may not be
(24:14):
that the three DS gets widespread adoption like the other
Nintendo handheld systems until we see at another price drop.
It was dramatic to see a price drop happened within
the first half year of the three ys being on
the shelves. I have another one of those coming up
that's very similar to that. Okay, well, I have one
that this is a question really not so much a prediction,
(24:36):
because there's actually a rumor out right now as we
record this, which is again early December. There's a rumor
and it's been going around for a while, but I've
just seen it get traction recently that the iPad three
or the successor to the iPad two, whatever it might
be called, if it's had two plus or whatever two
s that it will have a three D screen so
(25:00):
that you'll be able to look at stuff in three D.
That is the rumor. Here's my prediction. I don't think
it's gonna happen. And here's here's my reasoning why I
don't think it's gonna happen. Uh, it's it's actually got
multiple levels to it. One is that the three D thing,
it's an experience that doesn't it's not universal, okay, Like
(25:23):
there are people who have vision issues or whatever who
cannot see the three D images. Uh, it's very easy
to get it wrong so that you might you know,
you if you have to design a screen for someone
and you have to make it adjustable, because if you
don't make it adjustable, if you make it try and
make it one size fits all, they're gonna be a
lot of people where it's not going to be the
best effects because our eyes are space differently, you know,
(25:46):
Like my eyes are not as far apart as someone
else's eyes, and someone else's eyes might be um closer
together than my eyes are, and that affects how we
would see a screen that has three D projection in
it um. So because of that, Apple would have to
design some sort of of ability to like the three ds,
to adjust the level of three D, which you could
(26:08):
get it just right without giving yourself a migraine trying
to stare at this thing. But ultimately, the number one
thing that I think suggests that a three D screen
is not a good idea for an iPad is the interface.
The interface is a touch screen interface. Why would you
create a that's a two dimensional interface? Right, Yeah, that's true.
(26:28):
Why would you have a two dimensional interface to interact
with a three dimensional screen? Yeah, you would need like
an iPad cube. Yeah, it doesn't make any sense. Even
if you were to include the camera so that the
camera sees you, you would have to figure out how
to teach the processor to understand depth, and you would
have to learn the depth. So like, if I have
a three dimensional virtual environment, then that means I can
(26:52):
I can stack data in lots of different ways. But
if my interface is still a touch screen, I can
effectively only put it horizontally in vertically. I can't go
deep because there's no way to select that data. I
always se like something that's in the background versus the foreground.
In that case, UM, I think it's just too clunky.
It doesn't make sense. The only way it would make
(27:13):
sense is if you were just doing it for the
effect of watching media. So if you wanted to watch
a three D movie on your iPad, I think that
that doesn't make sense financially to put that kind of
uh investment in for something that's so limited and functionality.
So it may very well turn out that I'm wrong,
(27:34):
and maybe an Apple, of course is very good at
at designing things that that work in ways I did
not anticipate. I mean, the iPad is the perfect example
of that. But based upon what I know about three
D tech, and especially glasses free three D tech, and
based upon the interface that the iPad uses, I just
don't see it being a thing. So I'm gonna say
(27:58):
that the iPad three or two S or whatever it's
going to be called will not have a glasses free
three D screen included. Yeah. Now, I have seen additional
rumors that the screen will have a higher resolution display.
It's sort of a gimme, I think, um people have
been wanting that since the first iPad. As soon as
(28:20):
I Pad iPhone four came out with the retina display,
people were hoping that the iPad two would support the
same thing. Now, of course it did not, but now
there are hopes that the next generation iPad will have
a retina display. Now, over the past couple of years,
Jonavan has made a couple of predictions that you know
where he was really going out on a limb and
and uh turn out, you know, remember the iPad, the
(28:42):
big failure. It was going to be uh so, so anyway,
so anyway, I decided to go ahead and and and
do one of my own where this this I could
very easily get t boned on this one. There have
been rumors that Apple is coming out with televisions, and
I think I do think that's eventually going to happen.
(29:02):
I think they're moving into compete with people like Sony
and Samsung and LG. But I don't think you're gonna
see the first ones come out in Okay, I disagree. Yeah,
he's going to come out with its first Apple TV
in twelve. Yeah, a real Apple TV, an Apple TV,
which not exists. But it's not an actual television with
Apple functionality built into it, not a set top box,
(29:24):
It's built into the television unit itself. So I say
that comes out. That was one of my predictions. Awesome.
So uh, we very rarely do that, since we work
independently on I don't necessarily feel strongly about it. Again,
but I'm willing. I'm I'm willing to put my neck
out on that one. So uh yeah, one of us
will be right, one of us will be wrong, which
(29:46):
means that one of us will get a blender and
the other one will get a puppy. All right? Then? Yeah, um,
so was that was that your prediction there? Or well,
how many more do you have left? U don't I
have a handful. I've got a few as well, so
we can we can keep going back and forth. Sort
of a related thing. Um, I I predict that new
(30:07):
Google TV products will be coming out and no one
will care. Yeah, I I have no disagreement there. I
think Google TV. I think it launched too early. It
launched too early with not enough features, and so it
got a very kind of lackluster response and it's going
to be really difficult to fight that off. Even if
(30:30):
Google comes out with a truly compelling product to fight
off the first impression people had that Google Television was
kind of a well, this isn't what I was expecting.
It doesn't feel like it's what I was promised. I
think even if Google comes out with the perfect product now,
it would be an uphill battle because people already have
that impression that's just not what they want. And I
(30:52):
think I think these products also are sort of like DVRs.
I mean, people never really rushed out to buy themselves
a TVO or other stuff, but I mean people have
been adopting them, but it's sort of that under their radar.
It's definitely like the perfect example of the long tail.
You know, it's really a long tail product where you'd
have a few early adopters and their word of mouth
was enough to perpetuate sales, but the sales weren't huge
(31:16):
all in a and they weren't front loaded. They were
just kind of spread out. Um, all right, well here's
one for me. At least one of the big daily
deal sites will go under at least one. So these
are things like living social group on scout Bob. Google
has its own version Google deals, you know, so we're
(31:38):
gonna I think at least one of those is gonna
collapse because there's so the markets flooded, there's so many
of them that I don't think it can sustain all
of them together. Okay, UM, I have one. Apple will
not announce NFC for an iPhone. We won't have near
(32:01):
field communications. I think I think it's probable that Google
wallet will slowly grow sort of the same thing. Is
that what we were just talking about. I just don't
think people care right now here in the United States
about near field communication, and I don't think the iPhone.
I don't think Apple is going to rush out to
UH to meet Google on that field of battle. Yet.
I think part of it is that more and more
(32:23):
UH emphasis in the tech world anyway, not necessarily on
the individual consumer, but in the tech world is on
UH distribution centers like Amazon. So it's going further away
from the point of sale retail shops in the first place.
So making that point of sale thing easier doesn't really
a lot of people that there's no validity to that
(32:44):
because that's not their shopping experience, or at least in
the tech world, that's how it seems now like again
from the average consumer who is going out and shopping
for Christmas presents, Maybe that's not the case. Maybe there
are the person who hits those brick and border stores
over and over again, in which case they might really
welcome near field community patients solutions. How about Microsoft Windows
(33:04):
tablets will debut to modest results, like they're not gonna
They're not gonna take a big chunk out of the
tablet market. I think I think I the the iPad
will still be firmly in the lead. I think Android
will be in second and Windows might take third. They
(33:25):
might actually overtake all those touch pads that were sold
in late yea. Um. Actually I had written this down
on the Predictions episode and I didn't move it over
to my predictions list for I think HP is going
to do something useful with web os. I think it
may actually even hang onto it. So you think they're
(33:47):
reversing what uh Leo said back in uh the former
CEO of HP said back in the summer of eleven,
where HP was supposedly going to get out of the
consumer computer business as well as halt developing webOS. And
now both of those statements seem to be Um, well,
(34:09):
it seemed to be in question. Yeah, now that the
announcement may come by the end of but I think
I think they're going to real Well, a lot of
people said what are you doing? Why are you doing that? Um?
And I do think although the tablets weren't selling before
the discounts, um, I think the price had more to
do that with that than the webOS part. Okay, So
(34:31):
I think is going to be the swan song for
the compact disc mhm. I think that we're going to
see lots of companies cut way back on manufacturing discs
and start to rely more on digital distribution as their
primary means of getting music out to customers for DVDs
(34:53):
or just CDs. CDs. I think DVD still have a
little way to go, mostly because, um, it's a lot
It's still easier for someone to download a CD than
it is for them to You can stream movies pretty easily.
Downloading a film the requires that you have more space
and a faster connection to do it in a way
that has a good experience for the consumers. So I
(35:15):
think I think we're not quite there yet. I mean,
most most of our listeners are probably there, like most
of our listeners are probably in the group of people
who have the kind of connections and and equipment where
downloading a film wouldn't be a huge deal. But for
the vast majority of people out there, the big audience
that you have to aim for because that's where your
(35:35):
money is going to be. I don't think they're there yet,
but they are there as far as CD sales go,
So I think CDs aren't going to disappear, but I
think they're going to be more rare, and that you'll
more likely have to buy things through some sort of
digital distribution, either iTunes or Amazon or directly from whatever
the music label is, or even the band in some cases,
(35:57):
because we may we may. This may be the getting
of the end for the major labels as we recognize
them now. They'll still, I think, be around. I just
don't think that they'll be as big a power player
as they were in the decades past. Um. Since this
(36:18):
is I don't really have a good segue for this one,
so I'll throw out my left field thing. I think
that Canonical, the manufacturers of uh several different flavors of
lenox um, will ditch Unity as the main interface for
a Buntu because it has gone over like the biggest
(36:38):
lead balloon of all lead balloons. Yeah, uh yeah, there's
not a lot of love for it. I think they
may try to refurbish it, but I think they may
go back to gnome as the main gnome and clature
for for it. Um. Of course, it's easy. It's easy
enough to to choose it. And that's something that I
read recently in a in a critique of the new interface. Um.
(37:02):
You know, it's it's not like anybody has to stick
with Unity. You can go with any number of other
interfaces pretty easily. Um. But yeah, there's there's been so
much uh complaint about it. I think that they're gonna
go with something else or or come, you know, maybe
completely overhaul. But I'm gonna say for the official prediction
that they're gonna ditch it. Um. So what's next? I
(37:25):
only have one left out of my official predictions unless
I think of some while we're talking, um, and this one. Uh,
it's it's it's such a lame one. I don't know
why it chose this as the last one. Uh. But
you know, we've got another election year coming up. I
think that tech is going to play the biggest role
ever in election history this year I want to give
(37:49):
I know, that's what I said. It was lame. I
was like, you know, the more I wrote this down,
the more I'm like, and water is wet, so it
already has. So you know what, I'm not gonna I'm
not gonna really even next year, I'm not going to
count that. I mean, normally I would win at least
a donkey or an elephant out of that one. But
I think, uh, I think that one is such a
GIMMI that you know, people who people who would be
(38:12):
visiting our planet for the first time would be able
to tell you that within five minutes of note looking around.
So yeah, okay, I have well I have several, but
a couple of them I'm just gonna ditch. Um. I
have four left. I think that um that I want
to keep going with. One is that now, keeping in
mind this, it's been out for a short time. So
(38:33):
even though it released in I'm gonna say that in
the kindle fire will be a hit. I think it's
I think it's gonna do really well over the next year.
So you're you're calling it like a true success, Like
a true success, I think it might be the first. Um,
I agree with you. I think it might be the
first non iPad to truly succeed in the market. I mean,
(38:56):
we've got lots of other non iPad tablets out there,
but I don't think any of them have been hailed
as a true success. And HPS touchpad did. Okay, I
don't count. You don't count that that's a fluke because
of the pricing. That doesn't mean people would have bought
(39:17):
anything and a hundred dollars if it were in a
tablet for probably like you know, if it was a
Window seven tablet for a hundred bucks, that probably would
have gone out and rushed out and bought those. Um.
But yeah, I think that the the the Kindle Fire
has the potential to be the the number two tablet.
Like if you're talking about specific models, uh, because again,
(39:39):
the Android tablet space is so diverse that it's hard
for any one kind of tablet to get true success
in that field because there's just so many different ones,
and you know, it requires that the consumer be informed
about his or her choice. You know, when you go
if you just know what a tablet is and you
know what Android is, but you don't know anything Beyond that,
(39:59):
going into a store and shopping for Android tablets is
maddening because there's so many different kinds and you don't
necessarily know which ones are really gonna be good versus um,
some that are just going to be slow and unresponsive
and and maybe running Android one point six, you know,
so um And related to that, I say that, and
(40:21):
there's been speculation that the Kindle fire will cause Apple
to lower prices at the iPad. I say, no, I
don't think. I don't think they're gonna do it now.
Apple is has traditionally been sort of that premium kind
of uh product, especially since Steve Jobs came back. Yeah,
I mean there's aimed for that niche. Yeah, that was
(40:43):
that was what. That's kind of their corporate identity. They're
not known for marking down prices in the face of competition.
They're they're known for just pouring even more effort into
innovation and marketing and convincing people that whatever it is
they're coming out with is what you have to have.
I can't you know, I've heard people talk about how
(41:04):
the market forces like netbooks were supposed to bring down
Mac prices. You know, that was the big thing they
didn't really do that either. Now, granted, you could also
say that, well, Apple keeps coming out with more advanced
hardware and then marketing it for the same price as
the previous generation hardware, so in a way, prices are
kind of falling sort of, but not in the traditional sense. Yeah. Yeah, um,
(41:31):
And then let's see I said that Windows will release
two sort of lackluster adoption. Um, and that's twofold. I
think it suffers from the same problem that Lion does
for for the macOS, and that it's got a very
different interface. And yes, before you write me, I know
you can change its metro. Yeah, it's going to the
(41:54):
metro interface. For those of you who don't know, is
the interface for the Windows eight porta bowl devices and
Windows seven portable stuff that's out there now you see
on there if you've seen commercials with a little colorful
boxes on the phones, that's what the Windows eight you
user interface is supposed to look like for computers, Yeah,
which which would work be great if you have a
(42:15):
touch screen monitor, but if you don't have a touch
screen monitor. There's some people who suggest that that particular
way of organizing data is not really that intuitive because
you can't navigate through it as as easily. That's one
of the big things that we've talked about with that.
We're plan on doing a user interface podcast at some point.
(42:37):
We're talk about the design of a user interface and
what goes into that, because there's so much more beyond
just technical uh sex. But you know, we've seen like
kids pick up an iPad and that just they learn
how to navigate that iPad really quickly. You know. It's
it's one of those things that's just very intuitive. Yeah,
(42:57):
So kids intuitively can figure out how to navigate these things.
So there is a, uh, there is a an urge
to move toward that because everyone's like, well, this, this
is there's something here. It's just it's it's almost magical,
like to to use an Apple type phrase. But when
you get it to a desktop modality where there's no
(43:19):
there's not necessarily a touch screen part of the interface,
it's not nearly as intuitive because you're navigating you're not
navigating it the same way you would if you were,
say a touch screen tablet. Yeah, and and and here's
the thing. I mean, yes, you can you can operate
Windows eight in that mode or in a more traditional
mode but they've been marketing it at using the the
(43:40):
Metro stuff on that initial thing. Look what you can
do here. Um. I think if they continue marketing Metro
as the primary interface, people are going to be a
little put off by that and they suffer from another problem.
Windows seven it's really good, um, and people have been
adopting it now. It's it's you know, surpassed Vista in
a option at this point. UM. And I think now
(44:02):
that XP is going out, I think people are just
gonna go with Windows seven unless you know, Microsoft completely
makes it unavailable. This is kind of crazy because when
you think about think about how long XP stuck around, Yeah,
ten years, ten years of XP and then because it works,
and then what happened was people did not like Vista,
or enough people did not like Vista for it to
(44:23):
be a problem, and uh, and then Windows seven came
around it seemed to be a big improvement. It does
seem weird to go from Windows seven to Windows eight
so relatively quickly when you look at how long there
was a a pause from Windows XP to Windows Vista.
And yes there were other versions of Windows that came
(44:44):
out between those, but we're talking about mass adoption here. Yeah,
so I think and mass adoption and and actual like
personal computers as opposed to web servers and things like that.
So I just don't think it's going to take off.
And my my last one, I'm gonna go with my
gimme for the last one. Blizzard will release Diablo three
and it will become a massive hit. Wow, I gotta
(45:09):
get it. I gotta get a demon or something out
of that. I would predict that there will be uh
a dramatic increase in people complaining about right index finger pain.
That's exactly possible directly as a result of blizzards of
blizzards Diablo three releasing. It's going to be a hit. Yeah.
(45:32):
I didn't make any other predictions about any other game
titles that I think might come out and next year
because that that's what Grand Theft All five comes out.
That'll be excited to see. I think that will be
a big success. That's also another gimming people have been
eager for that. But U okay, so here's my final
final prediction. So you came up with it. Last prediction
has nothing to do with tech. I'm done. I predict
(45:55):
this time next year we will be making a prediction
show and we will ignore the fact that the Mayan
calendar is coming at an end, and that we will
just assume that the world will continue going on and
that we will have to predict stuff to happen. All right,
(46:16):
So um yeah for those of you who were you know,
playing on just living it up in twelve because it
was gonna be the final year. Ever, I don't think so.
So alright, alright, well let's wrap this up that those
are our predictions for twenty twelve in the world of technology.
If you guys have any of your own predictions you
(46:36):
would like to share, or you have any other questions
or suggestions for topics you would like us to cover
in future episodes, let us know. So there's an email
that addresses tech Stuff at how stuff works dot com,
or drop us a line on Facebook or Twitter. Are handled.
There is tech stuff hs W and Chris and I
will talk to you again in the future. Be shorted.
(47:00):
Check out our new video podcast, Stuff from the Future.
Join How Stuff Work staff as we explore the most
promising and perplexing possibilities of tomorrow. The House Stuff Works
iPhone app has arrived. Download it today on iTunes. Brought
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(47:21):
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