38: Are we vastly underestimating AI? with Dwarkesh Patel

A couple hundred people in San Francisco may be on the cusp of inventing artificial general intelligence (AGI). Yet most people are not paying close attention, are skeptical, and are certainly not in the room. Dwarkesh pulls back the curtain so that the broader public can understand what people who are actually building AI think is going to happen.

The conversation begins with Dwarkesh drawing parallels between the current AI revolution and past technological shifts, like the Industrial Revolution, emphasizing the potential for AI to massively increase productivity and automate jobs. He paints a picture of a future where AI, especially artificial general intelligence, could lead to unprecedented economic growth, comparing it to the rapid transformation seen in cities like Shenzhen, China. However, Dwarkesh also cautions about the risks of an intelligence explosion, where superhuman AI could drastically alter societal dynamics.

The discussion then moves into scenario planning, exploring various potential futures for AI development. In a positive scenario, AI continues to advance parabolically, boosting productivity and economic growth. Conversely, a negative scenario sees AI hitting significant challenges or diminishing returns, slowing its progress. A surprise scenario considers AI developing in unforeseen ways. Dwarkesh emphasizes the importance of managing public expectations and preparing for a range of outcomes, highlighting the necessity of effective redistribution and retraining programs to help workers transition as AI reshapes the job market.

Finally, Ben and Dwarkesh consider the public policy demands and philosophical implications of AI. They discuss how AI could change human cognitive biases, improving decision-making, but also potentially amplify negative traits like greed and power-seeking. Dwarkesh advocates for policies that ensure the broad deployment of AI systems to allow society to adapt gradually and stresses the need for coordinated global efforts to manage AI's geopolitical impacts. The episode concludes with reflections on the crucial role of ethical standards in AI development, underscoring the importance of dialogue and collaboration to harness AI's benefits while mitigating its risks.

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Onward is hosted by Ben Miller, co-founder and CEO of Fundrise. Podcast production by The Podcast Consultant. Music by Seaplane Armada. 

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