S9 Ep55: Espresso Martini | Operation Midnight Hammer, Trump’s Claims, and What Comes Next

This week, Chris and Matt return for an emergency deep dive on Operation Midnight Hammer, the largest US strike on Iran since 1979. They break down what the bombing raid and actually achieved, why initial White House claims of “obliterating” Iran’s nuclear program don’t hold up to scrutiny, and what the intelligence community’s more cautious battle damage assessments reveal. They also unpack the legal debate around preemptive strikes, Israel’s unfinished campaign against Iran, and the risk of a new status quo in which these strikes become routine. Plus, Denis Villeneuve takes on Bond, and Chris dares to revisit the great “blonde Bond” panic of 2005.

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Audio: https://pod.fo/e/2f0e51
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIM_ga7TiU8

Articles discussed in today’s episode

"Shifting Views and Misdirection: How Trump Decided to Strike Iran" by Mark Mazzetti, Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman, Eric Schmitt & Helene Cooper | The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/us/politics/trump-iran-decision-strikes.html

"Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, sources say" by Natasha Bertrand, Katie Bo Lillis & Zachary Cohen | CNN: https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/24/politics/intel-assessment-us-strikes-iran-nuclear-sites

"Strike Set Back Iran’s Nuclear Program by Only a Few Months, U.S. Report Says" by Julian E. Barnes, Helene Cooper, Eric Schmitt, Ronen Bergman, Maggie Haberman & Jonathan Swan | The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/us/politics/iran-nuclear-sites.html

"Israeli officials see 'significant' damage to Iran's nuclear facilities" by Barak Ravid & Zachary Basu | Axios: https://www.axios.com/2025/06/25/iran-nuclear-program-israel-damage-intelligence

"In New Assessment, C.I.A. Chief Says U.S. Strikes ‘Severely Damaged’ Iranian Program" by Julian E. Barnes, Mark Mazzetti & Maggie Haberman | The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/25/us/politics/trump-iran-nuclear.html

"Centrifuges at Fordo ‘No Longer Operational,’ U.N. Nuclear Watchdog Head Says" by Aurelien Breeden | The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/26/world/middleeast/centrifuges-fordo-damage-iran.html

“Post-Attack Assessment of the First 12 Days of Israeli and U.S. Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities” by David Albright & Spencer Faragasso | Institute for Science & International Security: https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/post-attack-assessment-of-the-first-12-days-of-israeli-strikes-on-iranian-nuclear-facilities

"Questions on the Fordo Strike (Wonky)" by Cheryl Rofer | Lawyers, Guns, Money: https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2025/06/questions-on-the-fordo-strike-wonky

"Everything We Just Learned About The GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator Strikes On Ira