S9 Ep58: Iran’s Nuclear Future and Why Bombs Won’t Stop it with Joe Cirincione

Matt is joined by nonproliferation expert Joe Cirincione to unpack what the recent US and Israeli strikes on Iran actually achieved—and what they didn’t. They discuss the extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear program, why military action alone can’t stop a country from getting the bomb, and what a viable diplomatic path forward might look like. Joe breaks down the technical realities of uranium enrichment and covert weapons development, explores whether Iran now has the intent as well as the capability to build a nuclear weapon, and explains how this crisis risks pushing the world back toward nuclear anarchy. They also consider what future proliferators might be learning from the Iran case, and what comes next for the global arms control regime.

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Additional reading for the episode

"Iran and the Changing Character of the Nonproliferation Regime" by Joseph Rodgers | Center for Strategic & International Studies: https://www.csis.org/analysis/iran-and-changing-character-nonproliferation-regime

"Disruption or Dismantlement: Diverging Assessments of Iran Nuclear Strikes" by Bailey Schiff | CSIS Next-Generation Nuclear Network: https://nuclearnetwork.csis.org/disruption-or-dismantlement-diverging-assessments-of-iran-nuclear-strikes/

"Post-Attack Assessment of the First 12 Days of Israeli and US Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities" by David Albright, Spencer Faragasso, and the Good ISIS Team | Institute for Science & International Security: https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/post-attack-assessment-of-the-first-12-days-of-israeli-strikes-on-iranian-nuclear-facilities

"Going for the Bomb: Part I, Pathways and Timelines" by David Albright | Institute for Science & International Security: https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/going-for-the-bomb-part-i-pathways-and-timelines

"Going for the Bomb: Part II, Tasks to Make a Crude Nuclear Weapon" by David Albright and Andrea Stricker | Institute for Science & International Security: https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/going-for-the-bomb-part-ii-tasks-to-make-a-crude-nuclear-weapon

"Iran Suspends Cooperation With UN Nuclear Watchdog" by Erika Solomon and Sanam Mahoozi | The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-iaea.html

"Pentagon Says US Strike Delayed Iran’s Nuclear Program by Up to Two Years" by Lara Seligman and Michael R. Gordon | The Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/pentagon-says-u-s-strike-delayed-irans-nuclear-program-by-up-to-two-years-8d51eb81

"What Is the Iran Nuclear Deal?" by Kali Robinson | Council on Foreign Relations: https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal

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