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Speaker 1 (00:11):
You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure
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Speaker 2 (00:20):
Hey, welcome to the Buck Brief. Ryan Gradusky is with
us now once again. He's the founder of the seventeen
seventy six Project Pack and the author of the National
Populas newsletter. Ryan, I sit here and I cannot believe
that Biden is actually gone. You and I thought that
he would make it to the very end, and it
was close. I mean it was close. He kept coming,
(00:40):
he kept coming, and sure enough they managed to push
him out.
Speaker 3 (00:45):
Let's start with that. How do they do this?
Speaker 1 (00:48):
So Biden's closest advisors from people that I've spoken to,
went to him and showed him the internals and they said,
not only is there no path for you to win,
but you are actually going to cross Democrat states like Virginia, Maine,
New Hampshire, Minnesota, and New Mexico, and you're actually neck
and neck in New Jersey and Colorado. So down Mallad,
(01:09):
you're going to wipe the party out and you're going
to lose in one of the biggest political landslides for
Democrats since.
Speaker 3 (01:14):
Nineteen eighty eight, So that that's pretty tough.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
Now, that's not good, right, That's not a good situation. Yeah,
can you just try to explain this to me though
for a second?
Speaker 3 (01:26):
Did people really not know that he had dementia? Do
you know what I'm saying?
Speaker 2 (01:30):
I mean, the voters. I know, the media just lies
and they pretend, but if the polling shows this, it's
it must be at some level that people were the
media was able to hide from them the extent of
his dementia, right, because otherwise, why would all of a
sudden he wasn't down those kinds of numbers two three
months ago?
Speaker 1 (01:49):
Well, he was down for a while, and I think
that the Democrats just hoped that it wouldn't matter that
that eventual, that the debate would have gone as bad
as it did, and that they could keep it going
for long enough by having a basement campaign. And it
just I mean, that debate was the nail in the coffin,
and it was it was over after that.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
But then you know, there were there were bad numbers
for him right afterwards. And he said no, I mean,
he sent out explain this to me. He had the campaign,
the Biden campaign co chair on the Sunday CBS show,
right whatever, that thing is saying that Biden is in
and he's the guy. And then a couple of hours later,
(02:31):
Biden puts out a tweet saying I'm out.
Speaker 1 (02:34):
They had a they agreed to a CNN debate the
day before, they put Jill in a bunch of new
fundraisers that I had heard from someone in the Adaman
who I'm friendly with, that Biden was quitting. That she
had gotten the word that Biden was quitting, and that
was earlier in the week, and I was like, well, whatever.
Then there was a Newsmax breaking news story that Biden
(02:56):
was quitting on Sunday, and I kind of didn't believe
it because they had these new fundraisers, they had Kamala
and Bill Clinton calling donors, they had they had the
CNN new to see, an n debate, and a parent
only last minute, he just pulled the trigger and said, no,
I can't win. My close advisors, the ones who are
(03:16):
yes man, say I can't win, So I have to
get out. And now he's a hero. Now he's a
national hero. Now that's what the media is saying, is like,
look how brave he is. After today did everything to
kneecap him possible, that he is like this extraordinary leader.
Speaker 2 (03:30):
Well, my favorite thing is that he put the country
over himself. Well for the last month he was apparently
putting himself over the country, and then they finally like
shoved him out of a moving car so that he
wouldn't be the nominee anymore.
Speaker 3 (03:42):
Yeah, they did.
Speaker 1 (03:44):
I mean, they did everything they possibly going to make
his life miserable. And now he's a hero for doing
the hard job. But listen, credit to Nancy Pelosi. That
woman is eighty four years old and she is probably
the most the biggest political beast there is. There's no
one even close to how our ability, especially I'm the right.
Speaker 2 (04:04):
Why do you think Obama hasn't endorsed Kamala yet? There
have been all these Kamala endorsms out there from everybody.
Gretchen Whittmurray said that she endorses Kamala and she won't
take the VP role. Like, what's going on with that?
Speaker 1 (04:19):
Because Biden's supposed to, sorry, Obama supposed to be bigger
than politics, and he's you know, he's he's like Oprah,
He's like a deity. So they wait and they hold
out for it. But I mean, it's Kamala. There's no
I'm not going to be a real contested convention. This
dream of Michelle Obama coming in at the last moment
or something like that, it's not real. It's Kamala. And
(04:39):
they hope that Kamala will improve against Biden, not to win,
but to help the bleeding down ballot, which is so
severe that Democrats were losing in.
Speaker 2 (04:48):
Very important Well let's let's get into some of the
numbers on this, because I find I find this fascinating.
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to me, here's where we are because I almost frame
it a different way. People say will Trump win? And
(05:56):
the way that I approach this is if Trump can't
beat Kamala Harris, what is the point of the GOP?
Speaker 3 (06:03):
You know what I mean?
Speaker 2 (06:04):
If Kamala Harris can defeat a nominee who has already
been president, who got shot in the ear and looked
like a badass right afterwards, who is who bank was
Joe Biden before a single vote was cast in this election?
And who has the most up unity and enthusiasm I
think I've ever seen like what helped me work through this?
(06:26):
Do they really think that Kamala Harris can defeat Donald
Trump in a general election.
Speaker 1 (06:33):
I don't know any Democrat who thinks that there's a
lot of hope that she can manage to create some
kind of avenue lane for herself. But it's very small.
You know. Trump still probably has about the same maybe
a little maybe better, maybe worse polling against Kamlads against Biden.
The instant polls, I wouldn't trust most of them. We're
(06:54):
gonna have to wait a few weeks for the real
polling to come out. But now, I mean, Trump definitely
has the overall advantage. They're trying to now say that
he's too old to be president. That's the new Democratic line,
if you'll see that in the media today. But if
the goal is to sit there and say, hey, we
could save Bob Casey and Pennsylvania we could save we
(07:16):
could keep the Michigan Senate seat, we could save you know,
maybe Shared Brown, Ohio. We could save Tammy Brown and Wisconsin.
It's about saving and maintaining the endangered seats because under Biden,
you know, Tammy Baldwin was neck and next she wouldn't
even be seen with him anymore. In Wisconsin. She used
to win that state by twenty points. So you have
(07:38):
a lot of endangered Democrats really worrying that they were
gonna have a horrendous down ballot effect that would cost them,
you know, more than just two or three Senate seats.
But they were looking at six or seven.
Speaker 2 (07:49):
So no matter what they say publicly now, of course
they'll live at all this stuff. But the notion that
Kamala Harris, it seems to me, like what you're telling
me is it's not that Kamala Harris is better head
to head against Trump. It's that Kamala Harris won't cause
other Democrats across the board to get wiped out to
the same degree.
Speaker 3 (08:10):
Is that pretty much the strategy?
Speaker 1 (08:12):
Yeah, I mean Democrat internals were looking at six to
seven Senate seats being really endangered or losing, and thirty
to forty House seats being endangered a losing, and that's
such a loss where you can't fix that in one
election cycle. You can't just come back and have another
election cycle and be like, oh, look, we're back to
where we were. You could do it with one or
two or three Senate seats and a dozen House seats,
(08:33):
but you can't do it with thirty to forty losses
and six or seven in the Senate, and they didn't
want to give Trump this overwhelming majority.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
I mean it's in a sense though, I mean they're
kind of I know, they're not formally conceding, they're not
conceding the presidential election. But this is a desperate This
is a desperation move. This is not a savior move.
This is this is like throwing the tournique around the
bloody leg. This is not oh like, we're gonna go
(09:02):
win the We're gonna go win the one hundred meters
dash now right. I mean, it's just otherwise, it makes
no sense.
Speaker 1 (09:08):
It's never happened before. This has never happened in history.
We're this far along in the presidential election and a
major party nominee has had to drop out. The only
two times that a party nominee had to drop out
lobbing the city president was Harry Truman in nineteen forty eight.
I think it was No. Fifty two against Eisenhower he
dropped out, but that was way earlier. And in seventy two,
(09:31):
sorry sixty eight against Nixon. In sixty eight, Lyndon Johnson
dropped out right before New Hampshire because he was going
to lose New Hampshire. So you're talking, but that was
six seven months earlier than what we're talking about.
Speaker 3 (09:44):
Now.
Speaker 1 (09:44):
We're the very very tail, and we were, you know,
several weeks before convention, and that is that that's it's
never happened before. I can't overstate how historical of an
eventhis is.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
All right, I want to I want to ask you
this and we'll come back, come back to this in
a second. But just think this one over, Ryan. They've
already now had the entire party, Democrat Party machinery essentially
endorse Kamala. Right, everybody who's got a big name, they've
already said it's Kamala. They've raised fifty million dollars for Kamala.
Is there a realistic chance that they go into a
(10:18):
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So I mean to me, the real question I think
could be answered this way, Ryan, Are.
Speaker 3 (11:26):
They in a month?
Speaker 2 (11:27):
Are we gonna be hearing Nancy Pelosi actually endorses somebody else.
It's like they endorse Biden implicitly, and now they've endorse Kamala.
But then they're gonna endorse somebody else in three three
people in a summer, I mean, is that feasible?
Speaker 3 (11:40):
That would be hilarious.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
But now, I mean, the only person whose name who
told his delegates not to endorse Kamala is the governor
of Illinois, Pritzker. Aside from Prisker, I've not heard anyone
else saying hold off. Now, doesn't that mean Prisoner's gonna run?
I don't know. Prisker could run. He's worth several billion dollars.
He's the heir to the Marist Hotel family. I think
(12:03):
it is uh Mara, sorry, Maria is the Maria Hotel family. Yeah,
so so he could. He could make a run for
it if he wanted to, because he's all the money
in the world. But besides him, I haven't heard of
anybody else's name being floated even remotely. I think this
is more of a coronation, and it's just a matter
of who does she pick as VP.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
Okay, let's get into that. Who do you who does she?
Who does she want? And who will she get?
Speaker 3 (12:28):
Oh?
Speaker 1 (12:29):
I think she probably wants Josh Shapiro. I think that
that would be really helpful to her in a very
very tight state in in the pivotal swing state right
now in Pennsylvania. It's amazing how our swing state would
change from Florida to Pennsylvania. But Pennsylvania being the pedgil
swing state. I think that she loved Joshapiro, but I
think that, I mean, I know Andy Basheer has definitely
(12:50):
made a point that he would like it. Roy Cooper,
governor of North Carolina, had a call through yesterday, and
I know Mark Kelly is seriously being considered. Mark Kelly
would probably be the best of the three also because
his wife also survived an assassination attempt and he could
speak to that.
Speaker 3 (13:08):
And so those those are all the top contenders. Is there?
Speaker 2 (13:12):
So you don't think like the all to talk about
Whitmer and Newsom is that effectively over now?
Speaker 1 (13:19):
It's I mean, here's the thing, no one really wants
the job unless you don't think you have a huge
political future. Because let's say there's this outside chance and
Kamala wins it, right, she shocks us all on election nine,
she pulls out of victory. You could have an accidental
vice president, much in the same way that Mike Pence
was not going to win reelection in Indiana and took
the ticket with Trump because he had no other political future.
(13:42):
So Mark Kelly is never gonna be anything besides the Senator,
which is fine, but he won't be something bigger, And
neither will Andy Bisheer being a Democrat in Kentucky or
Roy Cooper being a Democrat in North Carolina. Their futures
are very limited. So the chances of them sitting there
and being on a national ticket this is a once
in a lifetime chance. If you're Josh Shapiro, if you're
Gretchen Wimmer, if you're Gavin Newsom, if you're Jamie Pritzker,
(14:03):
you could run in twenty twenty eight and have a
really serious chance at winning the presidency in an open
seat in a better year for you, and being beating
the other Democrats in the primary. Why would you attach
yourself to a sinking ship when you have a big
prospective chance you know, just four years away.
Speaker 2 (14:20):
Who do you think the VP ends up being under
on a Commala ticket? If you had to pick, I would.
Speaker 1 (14:26):
Probably guess Mark Kelly right now. I mean is probably
Kelly or Bashir, But I would say Kelly as if
I make a guess I don't think Shapiro wants it.
Speaker 3 (14:33):
I don't think Cooper's really.
Speaker 2 (14:34):
Being I mean, if I were Jos Shapiro's campaign or
you know or not you know, his advisors, I'd say,
don't run in run in twenty eight you know what
I mean, like, what do you what are you doing?
Because yeah, because I don't, I don't care who you are.
Being on a losing vice president, you know, being on
a losing ticket as the vice president that doesn't that's
not a good look. Losing is never a good look.
Speaker 3 (14:53):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (14:54):
Also, CNA was like, well, a big problem is that
he's Jewish, so.
Speaker 3 (15:00):
That they do that. Did you see that today? No?
Oh no, CNN seen.
Speaker 1 (15:04):
And commentators were like, well, the problem with Jos Shapiro
is he is Jewish. So that might have set the
Democratic base even more because he's an observant she he's
an Orthodox Jew. They said it out loud. I mean,
I'm not saying it, but that probably is floating in
some Democrats' minds is how much more do you want
to piss off progressives who are anti Israel by putting in,
you know, an orthodox Jew in the ticket who's very
(15:26):
supportive of.
Speaker 3 (15:27):
Israel, very interesting.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
All right, Ryan Gardusk, everybody go go subscribe to the
National Populast new letteral substack. Ryan, we didn't get this
Biden thing right, but we're gonna get the next big
prediction right.
Speaker 3 (15:38):
So we got VP right though.
Speaker 2 (15:41):
That's what thank you that you and I have been
saying I agree with you, and we've been saying publicly
jd vance and it was jd vance and that's you know,
the Biden things, a binary he is or he isn't. Right,
then it wasn't the jd vance. At one point, jade
vance was like eighth or tenth in the betting markets.
You know, there were a whole there was like a
dozen options out there for VP. So that's right. Thank
(16:02):
you Ryan for minding we nailed that one. For everyone watching,
we nailed that wee all right, Thank you, Ryan Grodusky.
Good to see you, my friend, you too,