June 4, 2024 • 26 mins
Jason Timpf breaks down how Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and the Boston Celtics' offense will attack Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and the Dallas Mavericks' defense during the NBA Finals. Jason breaks down film on how the Celtics can get Kristaps Porzingis involved in pick-and-pop action, Jayson Tatum's ability to attack Luka Doncic, and much more!
Timeline (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
04:00 - Introduction
05:00 - Season series
09:00 - Porzingis pick and pop
19:45 - Attacking Luka
24:42 - Jayson Tatum can take over
27:12 - Keys for both teams
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
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terms and responsible gaming resources. All right, welcome to hoops
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to night here at the volume. Happy Monday, everybody, oh ball.
If you guys had a great weekend and then you're
having a great start to your week. Where are beginning
our coverage of the NBA Finals today, starting with focusing
on Boston with the Ball on Offense. Tomorrow, we're gonna
do the same thing with Dallas with the ball on Offense.
We're gonna have film in both of those sessions. I've
got seventeen clips to go over with you guys. Today,
(02:30):
we're gonna go just through all of the Boston stuff
in a monologue at the start at the start, and
then we'll get into the film at the end. And
then Wednesday morning we have the nerd session, guys coming on,
and I'll probably have just like a shorter video that
just kind of has my prediction and everything else is
looking from thirty thousand feet. After we get done with
the film sessions, you guys are the drill before we
get started. To subscribe to the Hoops and I YouTube channels,
(02:51):
you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me
on Twitter at underscore json lt so you guys don't
miss show announcements. Don't forget about a podcast few wherever
you get your podcast on our Hoops tonight and keep
dropping mail back questions in those YouTube comments, so we
can keep hitting them throughout the rest of this series
and into the summer. All right, let's talk some basketball.
So we're gonna start from the series as a whole,
(03:12):
talk a little bit about the gambling odds as well
as the season series and just what I noticed in
film watching this morning, and then we'll focus in on
Boston with the ball on offense. According to DraftKings, Boston
is currently favored at minus two to ten to win
the series. If you want to bet Dallas as the
underdog and get them right now plus one seventy five.
That is a substantial favorite, but easily the closest series
(03:36):
that Boston has played to this point in terms of
the gambling odds. The season series went two to Ozero
to Boston. Both games ended in blowout fashion. Closest one
was probably the March first game. Even though the final
score was further apart the game in Dallas, Boston led
by a large margin throughout. In the March first game
in Boston, Dallas actually Dallas actually cut the score down
(03:58):
to two in the third quarter, but Boston blew it
open over the end of the third and into the
fourth quarter. The main thing that stood out to me
on film, Dallas was really bad defensively in that game.
It's kind of weird going back and watching a bad
version of this Dallas defense because they've been good for
a really long time. This was in that stretch when
they went on that East Coast road trip and they
got shredded. Those of you guys who followed the show
(04:19):
during the regular season will remember me talking about how
that was like a big opportunity for them to demonstrate
that with their new personnel they got at the trade
the deadline that they could defend and it just didn't
go well. They got shredded in that entire entire road trip.
As a matter of fact, in the month surrounding that game,
so that game was on March first. If you go
from February fifteenth to March fifteenth, Dallas was twenty ninth
(04:42):
in defense over that span. So basically just a completely
different type of team now than what they were when
they faced Boston in the regular season. Now, to be clear,
Boston presents some real issues for the Dallas defense, and
very different issues than what Minnesota presented, right, So, like,
I do think that Boston will have success against this
Dallas defense. I just think it'll look a lot more
(05:03):
challenging that it looked during the regular season. So metrics,
Boston had a one to twenty nine offensive rating in
the two matchups. They shot a sixty four percent true
shooting percentage. Shot jump shots really well in both games,
especially in the March first game. They had a one
point three to three points per jump shot stat out
of that game, one point one to one in the
January twenty second game, So the shot well both games.
(05:25):
Main play type data that was fascinating to me was
their ability to attack Dallas in the post. They posted
them up eighteen times total in the two games. They
got one point four to three points per possession in
the January twenty second game, one point three to six
in the March first game. Those are two excellent numbers,
and so that especially when we started talking about the
(05:45):
ball screen defense and defending porzingis them being able to
hold up and switches in the post is going to
be a huge part of their defensive success in this
series as far as matchups go. In the March first matchup,
Dallas had Josh Green in the starting line still and
they use Josh Green on Tatum, PJ. Washington on Jlen Brown,
my guess is they'll start the same way, but with
(06:06):
Derek Jones in for Josh Green. So I think they'll
start with Derek Jones on Tatum and PJ. Washington on
Jlen Brown. But I do think we'll see some switching there,
or I shouldn't say switching, but I think we'll see
them move those matchups around a little bit, specifically because
if Jalen Brown just starts having success beating PJ. Washington
off the dribble because he's not as laterally quick as
Derek Jones, and since Tatum has a tendency to settle
(06:28):
for pull up jumpers and PJ. Washington is a little
bit taller, I wouldn't be surprised if we see them
move those matchups around a little bit. But I do
think they'll start with Derek Jones on Tatum, especially with
their intent on trying to at least attempt to run
drop coverage with Porzingis, which we'll get to in a
little bit. But again, I expect Derek Jones to start
on Tatum, PJ. Washington on Brown, they might move that
(06:49):
around Kyrie Reguard, Derek White, Luka Doncic most likely on
Drew Holliday and Gafford Lively on chrisops Porzingis. I want
to start in terms of actions because we're gonna get
into I Basically, I am going to focus in on
three different concepts in this In this offensive breakdown, porzingis
in ball screens, porzingis off the ball and the issues
(07:11):
that that presents. And then any sort of action involving
Tatum probably geared towards attacking Luka Doncic. That's what we're
going to be focusing in on today. Now. I want
to start with the Porzingis picking pop and to get
my best feel as to how Dallas was going to
cover this, I went not just to the regular season
but also to the Oklahoma City Thunder series because with
(07:31):
Chet Holmer and they presented a similar issue and they
defended it really well, and I wanted to look into
some of the specific ways that they did that. Now,
to be clear, before we get into the specifics, Chet
is just not as good at three point shooter as
chrisops Porzingis. He was six for twenty seven from three
in that series. That's twenty two percent on wide open
threes when the defender was at least six feet away,
(07:51):
he was three for twelve. So obviously Porzingis is a
better shooter, so it's going to be a little bit
more of a challenge, But schematically it's a similar type
of problem with his will to pop. Also one thing
with Chet, he rolled a lot more. Porzingis does roll,
but Chet did a lot of slipping and rolling in
that series, and so the pick and pop wasn't as
much of a threat because they just didn't go to
(08:12):
it as much. Now I want to start with the
Lively matchup Lively. I think they'll switch with any sort
of action involving Porzingis, I think they'll just switch, mainly
because Lively does really well on switches. He's defended fourteen
ISOs in switches in this postseason run and he's allowed
just four made field goals. Opponents have shot thirty six
(08:33):
percent against him, and they're getting to zero point seventy
nine points per possession in those ISOs against Eric Lively.
So he just holds up really well in switches. And
I think that, and I'll show you guys some examples
on film of him holding up and switches against Jalen
Brown and against Drew Holliday. Like that to me, is
where he has a unique capability to allow them to
kind of shut down the porzingis pick and pop by
(08:55):
just simply switching. But there's two things that can arise
if as an issue for Dallas. On the other side
of that, I don't worry about Lively on the switch.
I think he can defend out there about as well
as anybody else on the perimeter, So like, I don't
think he's gonna have issues. The main issue is you're
taking a Derek Jones Junior or a PJ. Washington or
(09:15):
one of the guards, and you're moving him on to
Chris Tops porzingis who will look to immediately attack in
the post. In the one game that Porzingis played against
Dallas this year, posted up five times and scored on
three of them for seven points. That's one point four
points per possession. That's really good, right, So like they
will look to attack on the other side of that action.
The other thing is, and this is not just for
(09:37):
porzingis this is really for all of the actions. Boston
does slip out of screens really well, especially with Tatum,
where he'll set a screen, he'll just kind of slip
out to like the elbow and then catch and he'll
run a four on three. I wouldn't be surprised too
if we see some of that with Porzingis where he
kind of rolls into like the fifteen foot areas, slipping
out of those screens. The main reason why is a
(09:57):
lot of the times they will switch with Lively, but
it starts as a drop, so it's like the guy
on the ball chases over the top. Lively catches the
offensive player and just kind of switches, and then that
guy will peel off back to the screener. But when
that happens, if he's chasing and the screener slips, he's
now in trail position. He's on his top side. In
(10:19):
Porzingis or whoever it is that slips out of that
action is now has the inside position towards the rim,
which can cause problems where they don't even need a
post up. You're just bringing a defender over and help,
or he's getting a dunk, right. So I think we'll
see a lot of slipping from Boston and then looking
to go back to Porzingis in the post. One of
the counters that we might see for that is I
(10:40):
wouldn't be surprised if we see Dallas go a go
a bit bigger. I wouldn't be surprised if we see
some Kaleba. I think we're gonna see a lot of
Kleiba in general. But I wouldn't be surprised if we
see some Kliba and Lively together, because if they have
Kliba and Lively out there together, they can switch and
also maintain their ability to defend in the post. So
like a Tatum Porzingis two man game with Kaliba on
(11:02):
on Porzingis and PJ. Washington on Tatum, you can just
switch that and then not have to worry necessarily about
dealing with Porzingis looking to attack in the post. Right,
So like I think, I think we might see some
bigger lineups. Also that that's still even in the situation
where you're on a guard action. So like let's say,
for instance, Kleiba's on Porzingis, but now you bring Tatum
(11:22):
up into the screen with PJ. Washington and they switch,
and all of a sudden, Tatum has a smaller defender
on him, or Porzingis gets a guard on him and
he's looking to post a guard. You have more size
on the floor in general, so that if Derek Lively
gets pulled out to the perimeter on a switch, you
just have more big bodies under the rim to help
(11:43):
and recover or to clean up the defensive glass. So
I think we'll see some bigger versions of Dallas in
this series, and we did see a lot. We did
see a Gafford Kliba lineup in the I think it
was in the March first game if I remember correctly,
but they did go to a big lineup during the season.
But switching with Lively, switching with Kliba Gafford, they run
(12:04):
more drop and then just try to have him close out.
The main reason why there is just Gafford's best trait
on like Gafford's strength, what separates him from the other
frontline players for Dallas is Gafford is a great rim protector, right,
but his rim protection is a little less valuable in
this series because Boston has shooting bigs and they space
the floor, so it's actually more important for them to
(12:26):
get mobility in space from the five spot in this series.
So I think in general, we're going to see more
Kleiba and Lively just because that's what's going to be
more fitting for this matchup. But when Gafford's on the floor.
Judging by what we saw in the Oklahoma City series,
they will have Gafford operate in a drop with the
defender chasing over the top, and then he'll just try
(12:47):
to close out to the three point line to offer
a late contest if Porzinga starts hitting. I think we'll
see some rotations from the weak side. There's a clip
that I'll show you guys where in the Oklahoma City
series where PJ. Washington was guarding Sheep on the left wing,
there was a ball screen. I think Jay dub was
running the action, chet popped and instead of Gafford closing out,
they just had PJ. Washington slide over and contests and
(13:09):
then they rotated on the backside. So I think we'll
see some stuff like that. But I do think over
the course of this series we'll see less Scafford, and
I wouldn't be surprised if before the end of the
series we actually see Derek Lively start a game in
this series. But again, the main concern there with the
pick and pop with porzingis is he will pop above
the break and he's willing to shoot out by like
(13:31):
twenty six twenty seven feet and so even when you
offer those closeouts, it's just a different challenge than what
it was with chet Holmgrin. One last thing on porzingis
this is porzingis in help when he's in spot up situations.
So Boston's gonna look to attack Luca, and we're gonna
get into some more specifics with that later. But I
wouldn't be surprised if the majority of Boston's action actually
(13:53):
doesn't involve Porzingis. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a
lot of like Tatum White to game or Holiday Brown
two man game looking to attack Luka Doncic, or looking
to attack Kyrie Irving when they get those switches or
whenever they get a matchup that they like, or if
they do get a slip cut or something that breaks
open on the backside. That is where Porzingis to me
(14:14):
becomes an even bigger problem for Dallas because there are
situations where and I'll show you an example on film
where Derek Lively's in position to step over in help
on a Jalen Brown driving layup out of the right corner,
but he doesn't because he's scared of Porzingis spotting up
on the right wing who he would have to leave
open in order to offer help. He doesn't help Jalen
(14:35):
Brown gets in and gets a layup, And so that
to me is the bigger Porzingis issue is just is
Lively going to be able to help on the back line?
Is Gafford going to be able to help on the
back line when he's going to have to be closer
to a deadly shooter twenty five twenty six feet away
from the basket. That's one of the big differences too
with porzingis above the break. When you have a guy
(14:56):
who likes taking corner threes, that's a pretty standard rotation.
You sit kind of in the dunker spot, and you
can step in and help if you want to be
the low man that's tagging a roller or helping out
a drive, but you can also close out to the
three point line. As soon as he's out above the break,
not only is he further away from the basket, but
it's just a non traditional help position because now when
you're in helpside, you're kind of up at the elbow
(15:16):
as opposed to down underneath the basket. Right. So, like
porzingis just is a huge pain in the ass to
deal with This is part of what it comes with
dealing with Boston. Right, As I've said so many times,
I think this is the most talented roster in the league.
They have four guys who make over thirty million. If
they were all free agents tomorrow, they'd all make over
thirty million, all five starters, including Derek White. Right, So,
like this is just kind of like what happens when
(15:38):
you play Boston. It's just everyone's really good and they
put you in a lot of specific predicaments. But again,
the pick and pop with porzingis is going to be
an issue, and Porzingis spotting up when they look to
attack elsewhere is going to be an issue. Attacking Luca,
Boston will go out of their way to do it.
We saw this in the Pacers series, I think Game one,
(16:01):
but it was one of the first two games of
the series. There was a sequence where Tyres Haliburton was
getting attacked relentlessly by Boston, and there was this basic
sequence where Derek White had the ball, Tyres Aliburton was
guarding him and they had Tyres chase over the top
and Nie Smith was guarding Tatum, who was the screener.
(16:21):
Tatum's at the screen Tatum popped to the top of
the key. Nie Smith tried to corral to corral Derek
White on the drive, and because he had to crawl
because Tyris Alibert was chasing and in trail position, Derek
White just threw a simple kickback past to Tatum. Nie
Smith tried to close out, but Tatum beat him off
the dribble and he got a dunk. So then on
the very next possession, Nie Smith was like hesitant to help,
(16:42):
and so when Haliburton chased over the top and he
was in trail position, Nie Smith wasn't there, so Derek
White just went all the way to the rim and
got an easy layup. Boston was relentless going at Halliburton
every single time in those first two games before he
left the series with a hamstring injury. I expect that
to do the same with primarily Luca, but also with Kyrie,
(17:03):
and it serves two functions right, one to get a
favorable matchup or to get the defense in rotation, and
two to try to fatigue Luca, who obviously has a
lot in the way of offensive responsibility on the other
end of the floor. Now Dallas will guard it differently.
One of the things that Indiana did with Haliburton was
they would have him chase over the top against the
ball handler. They would have him hedge and recover as
(17:26):
the on ball or as the screen defender, so like
if he was if they used Derek White to set
a screen, they'd have Tyrese like step out in hedge
and then try to get back into the passing lane.
Remember he got a couple steals like that in Game one,
just like slipping out of those hedges and jumping into
the passing lane. But because Tyrese was fast, they like
to have him do fast things to try to protect
(17:47):
himself right. Dallas will look to protect Luca in a
very different way. Primarily with Luca, they'll just switch and
then try to double him out of those particular situations.
One of the problems for Dallas is they can't afford
to just let Luca sit and play iso defense, even
if he's okay at it, because they desperately need him
to be great on the offensive end of the four.
(18:07):
This is not like the Clippers series where Luca can
defend on an island, but like both teams are struggling
to score because it's a defensive slug fest. And you're
not worried about Paul George and James Harden killing you
to some great extent, and you're okay winning a rock fight.
Boston's too skilled offensively. I don't think it's gonna be
that much of a rock fight. I think this is
gonna be a pretty high scoring series. And so I
(18:29):
think you need Luca to be awesome offensively, and you
need to try to protect his legs as much as possible.
So this is let's talk about a couple of specific
ways that Boston will look to attack. To look to
attack Luca, Right, if Drew Holliday is the matchup, If
lucas guarding Drew, we're gonna look at it through two
different functions. Right, Drew on the ball, Drew as the screener.
(18:53):
If Drew is on the ball, I think they'll just
switch the action. Right. So, if it's Tatum that sets
the screen, that up with Luca on Tatum right now,
you're not going to be looking to have Luca sitting
guard Tatum on an island. You're probably going to double
team him and rotate out of it because you want
to save Luca's legs, right, And you can't do what
(19:14):
you did against Minnesota, or you have Gafford and Lively
just parked in the paint, so that even if Anthony
Edwards beats Luke off the dribble, he's just driving into
rim protection. That's not the luxury you have in this series.
You have to contain on the perimeter, right, So my
guess is they'll double and rotate out of it. What's
the problem there? Now Boston has you in rotation with
five shooters on the floor, that can be a problem.
(19:34):
If Drew is the screener, I think Luca will just
switch out on the ball, right, So if if Drew's
on the ball and Luca switches on to Tatum, they'll
just pass it back to Tatum. But if if Luca
is the screener, he's switched on to Jason Tatum, now
he's just on the ball. It's the exact same predicament.
And if you double team once again, the defense is
(19:56):
in rotation. So like, no matter what, I think, you're
just gonna end up in this situation where attacking Luca
is just going to get the defense in rotation and
Boston's going to be playing driving kick out of that
all series long. I'm going to talk about this more
at the end, But most of this comes down to
me for Dallas defensive rotations, they are going to be
in rotation a lot, and so so much is going
(20:17):
to come down to how well are they closing out,
how well are they chasing guys off the line. They've
been pretty good. They were the best among the Conference
finalists teams in defending teams on spot up possessions. It's
something that they are good at it. They are athletic
and they get out to the perimeter. They close out well.
But that's going to be a huge factor in this
particular series. To me, the Luca attacking mostly comes down
(20:39):
to the fatigue battle. Boston is going to be trying
to wear Luca out and Dallas is going to be
trying to make Luca's job easier so that he doesn't
get worn out. Last week I want to look at
is just Jason Tatum as the offensive initiator for Boston again.
Josh Green got the assignment in the March first game
and Tatum just torched him. He was too small to handle.
(20:59):
Tatum just there was a sequence of possessions in the
second quarter where he just literally looked to attack Josh
Green every single time down the floor. He went on
like a nine to zero run by himself, just attacking
Josh Green out of like the right elbow in straight
iso and post up situations. Now, Darrek Jones Junior is
not as strong as Josh Green, but he is longer
and better at contesting those pull up jump shots. I
(21:20):
actually think he's just a better matchup for Tatum in
general in terms of having the length to actually contest
those shots. My main concern for Dallas with Tatum is
actually just Tatum as a passer. Tatum's not shooting well
in this postseason run. He's at zero point eight two
points per pull up jumper. That's bad. Zero point nine
points per catch and shoot jumper, that's bad. He's seven
for thirty three on face up jumpers zero point five
(21:42):
to two points per shot. That's really bad. So, like
Tatum's jumper just isn't there right now, and if it
comes back in a big way in the series, Boston's
just gonna win, Like, forget about it. Boston's winning if
Tatum shoots well. But he hasn't been shooting well. That said,
Dallas has entry points that Tatum can look to exploit
to easily get the defense in rotation. Again, any action
(22:02):
involving Tatum and Luca is likely to end with the
defense in rotation for the same reasons that I just
broke down for you guys. Right, Like, anytime Tatum has
the ball and set and get brings Luke into the screen,
Luca's probably gonna switch. They're gonna double. You'll be in rotation.
And if Luca, if Tatum sets the screen, switch on
to Tatum and throw the ball back to Tatum. Now
you're in rotation anyway. Right, So I think that's gonna
(22:23):
happen pretty consistently. But Tatum has the size to make
passes out of that. He is, in my opinion, one
of the best passing forwards in the league. It's one
of the most underrated traits about his game. He's incredible defensively,
and he's incredible as a playmaker. The primary concerns with
Tatum involved his ability to consistently get to his spots
and make shots right like is for him. It's his
(22:45):
inconsistency as a score that has held him back. But
his playmaking is something that I think is underrated, and
so I'm worried about for Dallas. Just Tatum functioning is
like this glue guy offensively that just consistently runs a
basic action the beginning of a possession to get the
defense in rotation, and suddenly it's Derek White, Drew Holliday,
(23:06):
Jalen Brown and Crisops porzingis running four on threes and
just torching them. That's my main concern with Tatum. So again,
this series to me comes down to rotations. For Dallas,
they have to do a really good job flying around
and chasing guys off the three point line. It's doable,
but it's going to be a tough job. I don't
hate the other matchups Kyrie on Kyrie and PJ. Washington
(23:26):
are both guys that can guard on the perimeter. I'm
really just worried about them operating with an advantage. Like
it's not PJ Washington guarding Jalen Brown with two guys
dug down into driving lanes that I worry about. It's
Jalen Brown catching on the left wing with PJ. Washington
closing out at him and him just getting easy buckets
looking to attack quickly with that guy closing out right
(23:49):
keys for both teams with Boston on offense for Boston
be deliberate about attacking Luca. If they let him guard
in an island, you'll wear him out. Not to mention,
you'll get great shots, but you'll wear him out, which
will hurt him on the offensive end. And most likely
you're just going to get the defense in rotation. In
the March first game, they had thirty three assists. They
had fourteen assists on their first seventeen made field goals.
(24:10):
They did a great job in that March first game
of getting the ball bouncing around, secondly pushing in transition.
You guys will see some examples in film, but anytime
they got a transition cross match, it just made it
so that Dallas couldn't run their actual defensive game plan,
which ended up in problems. So like just running up
and down the floor, forcing Dallas into cross matches will
help them. And then again, get the ball reversal in
(24:32):
every possession, Get the ball across the floor, make it
across the midline and make these guys defend against the
make these guys defend closing out rather than load it up.
Remember Dallas is a load up defense. That's what they
did to Minnesota, and they weren't very good at getting
the ball side to side. Boston has to get the
ball side to side on the Dallas front protect Luca's legs.
(24:53):
I would have him switch and then double out of
every single one of those situations. That way, he has
no screen navigation and no hard close like just make
his job super easy, because in my opinion, the best
pathway for Dallas to win this series is for Luca
to go absolutely super nova on offense and to shake
Boston's foundation the way he shook Minnesota's foundation in Game five,
(25:16):
and then to lead Boston into their bad offensive stretches.
As we know, Boston can lose sight of the goal
and their execution on offense from time to time. Luca
going super nova is a great way to play Boston
into those tendencies. Lastly, I think they need to lean
into Cleiba and Lively and then switch as much as possible. Again,
(25:37):
more stagnation, less ball movement. Boston ceiling is higher. It
just is. That's a fact going into the series. We
know Boston when they play their best, is better than anybody, right,
but they're inconsistent in that level, and so you have
to try to play them to the lower end of
their variants and the best way to do that is
when they're stagnant taking bad pull up jump shots and
(25:59):
they're not popping around in rotation getting easy shots. And
so it's gonna be tough. But like, the one guy
you have to protect is Luca, but I would switch
everybody else and leave him on an island and just
force Boston to score. And then it's gonna be about
Boston being deliberate to attack Luca and keep the defense
in rotation as much as possible. The volume
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(02:08):
to night here at the volume. Happy Monday, everybody, oh ball.
If you guys had a great weekend and then you're
having a great start to your week. Where are beginning
our coverage of the NBA Finals today, starting with focusing
on Boston with the Ball on Offense. Tomorrow, we're gonna
do the same thing with Dallas with the ball on Offense.
We're gonna have film in both of those sessions. I've
got seventeen clips to go over with you guys. Today,
(02:30):
we're gonna go just through all of the Boston stuff
in a monologue at the start at the start, and
then we'll get into the film at the end. And
then Wednesday morning we have the nerd session, guys coming on,
and I'll probably have just like a shorter video that
just kind of has my prediction and everything else is
looking from thirty thousand feet. After we get done with
the film sessions, you guys are the drill before we
get started. To subscribe to the Hoops and I YouTube channels,
(02:51):
you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me
on Twitter at underscore json lt so you guys don't
miss show announcements. Don't forget about a podcast few wherever
you get your podcast on our Hoops tonight and keep
dropping mail back questions in those YouTube comments, so we
can keep hitting them throughout the rest of this series
and into the summer. All right, let's talk some basketball.
So we're gonna start from the series as a whole,
(03:12):
talk a little bit about the gambling odds as well
as the season series and just what I noticed in
film watching this morning, and then we'll focus in on
Boston with the ball on offense. According to DraftKings, Boston
is currently favored at minus two to ten to win
the series. If you want to bet Dallas as the
underdog and get them right now plus one seventy five.
That is a substantial favorite, but easily the closest series
(03:36):
that Boston has played to this point in terms of
the gambling odds. The season series went two to Ozero
to Boston. Both games ended in blowout fashion. Closest one
was probably the March first game. Even though the final
score was further apart the game in Dallas, Boston led
by a large margin throughout. In the March first game
in Boston, Dallas actually Dallas actually cut the score down
(03:58):
to two in the third quarter, but Boston blew it
open over the end of the third and into the
fourth quarter. The main thing that stood out to me
on film, Dallas was really bad defensively in that game.
It's kind of weird going back and watching a bad
version of this Dallas defense because they've been good for
a really long time. This was in that stretch when
they went on that East Coast road trip and they
got shredded. Those of you guys who followed the show
(04:19):
during the regular season will remember me talking about how
that was like a big opportunity for them to demonstrate
that with their new personnel they got at the trade
the deadline that they could defend and it just didn't
go well. They got shredded in that entire entire road trip.
As a matter of fact, in the month surrounding that game,
so that game was on March first. If you go
from February fifteenth to March fifteenth, Dallas was twenty ninth
(04:42):
in defense over that span. So basically just a completely
different type of team now than what they were when
they faced Boston in the regular season. Now, to be clear,
Boston presents some real issues for the Dallas defense, and
very different issues than what Minnesota presented, right, So, like,
I do think that Boston will have success against this
Dallas defense. I just think it'll look a lot more
(05:03):
challenging that it looked during the regular season. So metrics,
Boston had a one to twenty nine offensive rating in
the two matchups. They shot a sixty four percent true
shooting percentage. Shot jump shots really well in both games,
especially in the March first game. They had a one
point three to three points per jump shot stat out
of that game, one point one to one in the
January twenty second game, So the shot well both games.
(05:25):
Main play type data that was fascinating to me was
their ability to attack Dallas in the post. They posted
them up eighteen times total in the two games. They
got one point four to three points per possession in
the January twenty second game, one point three to six
in the March first game. Those are two excellent numbers,
and so that especially when we started talking about the
(05:45):
ball screen defense and defending porzingis them being able to
hold up and switches in the post is going to
be a huge part of their defensive success in this
series as far as matchups go. In the March first matchup,
Dallas had Josh Green in the starting line still and
they use Josh Green on Tatum, PJ. Washington on Jlen Brown,
my guess is they'll start the same way, but with
(06:06):
Derek Jones in for Josh Green. So I think they'll
start with Derek Jones on Tatum and PJ. Washington on
Jlen Brown. But I do think we'll see some switching there,
or I shouldn't say switching, but I think we'll see
them move those matchups around a little bit, specifically because
if Jalen Brown just starts having success beating PJ. Washington
off the dribble because he's not as laterally quick as
Derek Jones, and since Tatum has a tendency to settle
(06:28):
for pull up jumpers and PJ. Washington is a little
bit taller, I wouldn't be surprised if we see them
move those matchups around a little bit. But I do
think they'll start with Derek Jones on Tatum, especially with
their intent on trying to at least attempt to run
drop coverage with Porzingis, which we'll get to in a
little bit. But again, I expect Derek Jones to start
on Tatum, PJ. Washington on Brown, they might move that
(06:49):
around Kyrie Reguard, Derek White, Luka Doncic most likely on
Drew Holliday and Gafford Lively on chrisops Porzingis. I want
to start in terms of actions because we're gonna get
into I Basically, I am going to focus in on
three different concepts in this In this offensive breakdown, porzingis
in ball screens, porzingis off the ball and the issues
(07:11):
that that presents. And then any sort of action involving
Tatum probably geared towards attacking Luka Doncic. That's what we're
going to be focusing in on today. Now. I want
to start with the Porzingis picking pop and to get
my best feel as to how Dallas was going to
cover this, I went not just to the regular season
but also to the Oklahoma City Thunder series because with
(07:31):
Chet Holmer and they presented a similar issue and they
defended it really well, and I wanted to look into
some of the specific ways that they did that. Now,
to be clear, before we get into the specifics, Chet
is just not as good at three point shooter as
chrisops Porzingis. He was six for twenty seven from three
in that series. That's twenty two percent on wide open
threes when the defender was at least six feet away,
(07:51):
he was three for twelve. So obviously Porzingis is a
better shooter, so it's going to be a little bit
more of a challenge, But schematically it's a similar type
of problem with his will to pop. Also one thing
with Chet, he rolled a lot more. Porzingis does roll,
but Chet did a lot of slipping and rolling in
that series, and so the pick and pop wasn't as
much of a threat because they just didn't go to
(08:12):
it as much. Now I want to start with the
Lively matchup Lively. I think they'll switch with any sort
of action involving Porzingis, I think they'll just switch, mainly
because Lively does really well on switches. He's defended fourteen
ISOs in switches in this postseason run and he's allowed
just four made field goals. Opponents have shot thirty six
(08:33):
percent against him, and they're getting to zero point seventy
nine points per possession in those ISOs against Eric Lively.
So he just holds up really well in switches. And
I think that, and I'll show you guys some examples
on film of him holding up and switches against Jalen
Brown and against Drew Holliday. Like that to me, is
where he has a unique capability to allow them to
kind of shut down the porzingis pick and pop by
(08:55):
just simply switching. But there's two things that can arise
if as an issue for Dallas. On the other side
of that, I don't worry about Lively on the switch.
I think he can defend out there about as well
as anybody else on the perimeter, So like, I don't
think he's gonna have issues. The main issue is you're
taking a Derek Jones Junior or a PJ. Washington or
(09:15):
one of the guards, and you're moving him on to
Chris Tops porzingis who will look to immediately attack in
the post. In the one game that Porzingis played against
Dallas this year, posted up five times and scored on
three of them for seven points. That's one point four
points per possession. That's really good, right, So like they
will look to attack on the other side of that action.
The other thing is, and this is not just for
(09:37):
porzingis this is really for all of the actions. Boston
does slip out of screens really well, especially with Tatum,
where he'll set a screen, he'll just kind of slip
out to like the elbow and then catch and he'll
run a four on three. I wouldn't be surprised too
if we see some of that with Porzingis where he
kind of rolls into like the fifteen foot areas, slipping
out of those screens. The main reason why is a
(09:57):
lot of the times they will switch with Lively, but
it starts as a drop, so it's like the guy
on the ball chases over the top. Lively catches the
offensive player and just kind of switches, and then that
guy will peel off back to the screener. But when
that happens, if he's chasing and the screener slips, he's
now in trail position. He's on his top side. In
(10:19):
Porzingis or whoever it is that slips out of that
action is now has the inside position towards the rim,
which can cause problems where they don't even need a
post up. You're just bringing a defender over and help,
or he's getting a dunk, right. So I think we'll
see a lot of slipping from Boston and then looking
to go back to Porzingis in the post. One of
the counters that we might see for that is I
(10:40):
wouldn't be surprised if we see Dallas go a go
a bit bigger. I wouldn't be surprised if we see
some Kaleba. I think we're gonna see a lot of
Kleiba in general. But I wouldn't be surprised if we
see some Kliba and Lively together, because if they have
Kliba and Lively out there together, they can switch and
also maintain their ability to defend in the post. So
like a Tatum Porzingis two man game with Kaliba on
(11:02):
on Porzingis and PJ. Washington on Tatum, you can just
switch that and then not have to worry necessarily about
dealing with Porzingis looking to attack in the post. Right,
So like I think, I think we might see some
bigger lineups. Also that that's still even in the situation
where you're on a guard action. So like let's say,
for instance, Kleiba's on Porzingis, but now you bring Tatum
(11:22):
up into the screen with PJ. Washington and they switch,
and all of a sudden, Tatum has a smaller defender
on him, or Porzingis gets a guard on him and
he's looking to post a guard. You have more size
on the floor in general, so that if Derek Lively
gets pulled out to the perimeter on a switch, you
just have more big bodies under the rim to help
(11:43):
and recover or to clean up the defensive glass. So
I think we'll see some bigger versions of Dallas in
this series, and we did see a lot. We did
see a Gafford Kliba lineup in the I think it
was in the March first game if I remember correctly,
but they did go to a big lineup during the season.
But switching with Lively, switching with Kliba Gafford, they run
(12:04):
more drop and then just try to have him close out.
The main reason why there is just Gafford's best trait
on like Gafford's strength, what separates him from the other
frontline players for Dallas is Gafford is a great rim protector, right,
but his rim protection is a little less valuable in
this series because Boston has shooting bigs and they space
the floor, so it's actually more important for them to
(12:26):
get mobility in space from the five spot in this series.
So I think in general, we're going to see more
Kleiba and Lively just because that's what's going to be
more fitting for this matchup. But when Gafford's on the floor.
Judging by what we saw in the Oklahoma City series,
they will have Gafford operate in a drop with the
defender chasing over the top, and then he'll just try
(12:47):
to close out to the three point line to offer
a late contest if Porzinga starts hitting. I think we'll
see some rotations from the weak side. There's a clip
that I'll show you guys where in the Oklahoma City
series where PJ. Washington was guarding Sheep on the left wing,
there was a ball screen. I think Jay dub was
running the action, chet popped and instead of Gafford closing out,
they just had PJ. Washington slide over and contests and
(13:09):
then they rotated on the backside. So I think we'll
see some stuff like that. But I do think over
the course of this series we'll see less Scafford, and
I wouldn't be surprised if before the end of the
series we actually see Derek Lively start a game in
this series. But again, the main concern there with the
pick and pop with porzingis is he will pop above
the break and he's willing to shoot out by like
(13:31):
twenty six twenty seven feet and so even when you
offer those closeouts, it's just a different challenge than what
it was with chet Holmgrin. One last thing on porzingis
this is porzingis in help when he's in spot up situations.
So Boston's gonna look to attack Luca, and we're gonna
get into some more specifics with that later. But I
wouldn't be surprised if the majority of Boston's action actually
(13:53):
doesn't involve Porzingis. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a
lot of like Tatum White to game or Holiday Brown
two man game looking to attack Luka Doncic, or looking
to attack Kyrie Irving when they get those switches or
whenever they get a matchup that they like, or if
they do get a slip cut or something that breaks
open on the backside. That is where Porzingis to me
(14:14):
becomes an even bigger problem for Dallas because there are
situations where and I'll show you an example on film
where Derek Lively's in position to step over in help
on a Jalen Brown driving layup out of the right corner,
but he doesn't because he's scared of Porzingis spotting up
on the right wing who he would have to leave
open in order to offer help. He doesn't help Jalen
(14:35):
Brown gets in and gets a layup, And so that
to me is the bigger Porzingis issue is just is
Lively going to be able to help on the back line?
Is Gafford going to be able to help on the
back line when he's going to have to be closer
to a deadly shooter twenty five twenty six feet away
from the basket. That's one of the big differences too
with porzingis above the break. When you have a guy
(14:56):
who likes taking corner threes, that's a pretty standard rotation.
You sit kind of in the dunker spot, and you
can step in and help if you want to be
the low man that's tagging a roller or helping out
a drive, but you can also close out to the
three point line. As soon as he's out above the break,
not only is he further away from the basket, but
it's just a non traditional help position because now when
you're in helpside, you're kind of up at the elbow
(15:16):
as opposed to down underneath the basket. Right. So, like
porzingis just is a huge pain in the ass to
deal with This is part of what it comes with
dealing with Boston. Right, As I've said so many times,
I think this is the most talented roster in the league.
They have four guys who make over thirty million. If
they were all free agents tomorrow, they'd all make over
thirty million, all five starters, including Derek White. Right, So,
like this is just kind of like what happens when
(15:38):
you play Boston. It's just everyone's really good and they
put you in a lot of specific predicaments. But again,
the pick and pop with porzingis is going to be
an issue, and Porzingis spotting up when they look to
attack elsewhere is going to be an issue. Attacking Luca,
Boston will go out of their way to do it.
We saw this in the Pacers series, I think Game one,
(16:01):
but it was one of the first two games of
the series. There was a sequence where Tyres Haliburton was
getting attacked relentlessly by Boston, and there was this basic
sequence where Derek White had the ball, Tyres Aliburton was
guarding him and they had Tyres chase over the top
and Nie Smith was guarding Tatum, who was the screener.
(16:21):
Tatum's at the screen Tatum popped to the top of
the key. Nie Smith tried to corral to corral Derek
White on the drive, and because he had to crawl
because Tyris Alibert was chasing and in trail position, Derek
White just threw a simple kickback past to Tatum. Nie
Smith tried to close out, but Tatum beat him off
the dribble and he got a dunk. So then on
the very next possession, Nie Smith was like hesitant to help,
(16:42):
and so when Haliburton chased over the top and he
was in trail position, Nie Smith wasn't there, so Derek
White just went all the way to the rim and
got an easy layup. Boston was relentless going at Halliburton
every single time in those first two games before he
left the series with a hamstring injury. I expect that
to do the same with primarily Luca, but also with Kyrie,
(17:03):
and it serves two functions right, one to get a
favorable matchup or to get the defense in rotation, and
two to try to fatigue Luca, who obviously has a
lot in the way of offensive responsibility on the other
end of the floor. Now Dallas will guard it differently.
One of the things that Indiana did with Haliburton was
they would have him chase over the top against the
ball handler. They would have him hedge and recover as
(17:26):
the on ball or as the screen defender, so like
if he was if they used Derek White to set
a screen, they'd have Tyrese like step out in hedge
and then try to get back into the passing lane.
Remember he got a couple steals like that in Game one,
just like slipping out of those hedges and jumping into
the passing lane. But because Tyrese was fast, they like
to have him do fast things to try to protect
(17:47):
himself right. Dallas will look to protect Luca in a
very different way. Primarily with Luca, they'll just switch and
then try to double him out of those particular situations.
One of the problems for Dallas is they can't afford
to just let Luca sit and play iso defense, even
if he's okay at it, because they desperately need him
to be great on the offensive end of the four.
(18:07):
This is not like the Clippers series where Luca can
defend on an island, but like both teams are struggling
to score because it's a defensive slug fest. And you're
not worried about Paul George and James Harden killing you
to some great extent, and you're okay winning a rock fight.
Boston's too skilled offensively. I don't think it's gonna be
that much of a rock fight. I think this is
gonna be a pretty high scoring series. And so I
(18:29):
think you need Luca to be awesome offensively, and you
need to try to protect his legs as much as possible.
So this is let's talk about a couple of specific
ways that Boston will look to attack. To look to
attack Luca, Right, if Drew Holliday is the matchup, If
lucas guarding Drew, we're gonna look at it through two
different functions. Right, Drew on the ball, Drew as the screener.
(18:53):
If Drew is on the ball, I think they'll just
switch the action. Right. So, if it's Tatum that sets
the screen, that up with Luca on Tatum right now,
you're not going to be looking to have Luca sitting
guard Tatum on an island. You're probably going to double
team him and rotate out of it because you want
to save Luca's legs, right, And you can't do what
(19:14):
you did against Minnesota, or you have Gafford and Lively
just parked in the paint, so that even if Anthony
Edwards beats Luke off the dribble, he's just driving into
rim protection. That's not the luxury you have in this series.
You have to contain on the perimeter, right, So my
guess is they'll double and rotate out of it. What's
the problem there? Now Boston has you in rotation with
five shooters on the floor, that can be a problem.
(19:34):
If Drew is the screener, I think Luca will just
switch out on the ball, right, So if if Drew's
on the ball and Luca switches on to Tatum, they'll
just pass it back to Tatum. But if if Luca
is the screener, he's switched on to Jason Tatum, now
he's just on the ball. It's the exact same predicament.
And if you double team once again, the defense is
(19:56):
in rotation. So like, no matter what, I think, you're
just gonna end up in this situation where attacking Luca
is just going to get the defense in rotation and
Boston's going to be playing driving kick out of that
all series long. I'm going to talk about this more
at the end, But most of this comes down to
me for Dallas defensive rotations, they are going to be
in rotation a lot, and so so much is going
(20:17):
to come down to how well are they closing out,
how well are they chasing guys off the line. They've
been pretty good. They were the best among the Conference
finalists teams in defending teams on spot up possessions. It's
something that they are good at it. They are athletic
and they get out to the perimeter. They close out well.
But that's going to be a huge factor in this
particular series. To me, the Luca attacking mostly comes down
(20:39):
to the fatigue battle. Boston is going to be trying
to wear Luca out and Dallas is going to be
trying to make Luca's job easier so that he doesn't
get worn out. Last week I want to look at
is just Jason Tatum as the offensive initiator for Boston again.
Josh Green got the assignment in the March first game
and Tatum just torched him. He was too small to handle.
(20:59):
Tatum just there was a sequence of possessions in the
second quarter where he just literally looked to attack Josh
Green every single time down the floor. He went on
like a nine to zero run by himself, just attacking
Josh Green out of like the right elbow in straight
iso and post up situations. Now, Darrek Jones Junior is
not as strong as Josh Green, but he is longer
and better at contesting those pull up jump shots. I
(21:20):
actually think he's just a better matchup for Tatum in
general in terms of having the length to actually contest
those shots. My main concern for Dallas with Tatum is
actually just Tatum as a passer. Tatum's not shooting well
in this postseason run. He's at zero point eight two
points per pull up jumper. That's bad. Zero point nine
points per catch and shoot jumper, that's bad. He's seven
for thirty three on face up jumpers zero point five
(21:42):
to two points per shot. That's really bad. So, like
Tatum's jumper just isn't there right now, and if it
comes back in a big way in the series, Boston's
just gonna win, Like, forget about it. Boston's winning if
Tatum shoots well. But he hasn't been shooting well. That said,
Dallas has entry points that Tatum can look to exploit
to easily get the defense in rotation. Again, any action
(22:02):
involving Tatum and Luca is likely to end with the
defense in rotation for the same reasons that I just
broke down for you guys. Right, Like, anytime Tatum has
the ball and set and get brings Luke into the screen,
Luca's probably gonna switch. They're gonna double. You'll be in rotation.
And if Luca, if Tatum sets the screen, switch on
to Tatum and throw the ball back to Tatum. Now
you're in rotation anyway. Right, So I think that's gonna
(22:23):
happen pretty consistently. But Tatum has the size to make
passes out of that. He is, in my opinion, one
of the best passing forwards in the league. It's one
of the most underrated traits about his game. He's incredible defensively,
and he's incredible as a playmaker. The primary concerns with
Tatum involved his ability to consistently get to his spots
and make shots right like is for him. It's his
(22:45):
inconsistency as a score that has held him back. But
his playmaking is something that I think is underrated, and
so I'm worried about for Dallas. Just Tatum functioning is
like this glue guy offensively that just consistently runs a
basic action the beginning of a possession to get the
defense in rotation, and suddenly it's Derek White, Drew Holliday,
(23:06):
Jalen Brown and Crisops porzingis running four on threes and
just torching them. That's my main concern with Tatum. So again,
this series to me comes down to rotations. For Dallas,
they have to do a really good job flying around
and chasing guys off the three point line. It's doable,
but it's going to be a tough job. I don't
hate the other matchups Kyrie on Kyrie and PJ. Washington
(23:26):
are both guys that can guard on the perimeter. I'm
really just worried about them operating with an advantage. Like
it's not PJ Washington guarding Jalen Brown with two guys
dug down into driving lanes that I worry about. It's
Jalen Brown catching on the left wing with PJ. Washington
closing out at him and him just getting easy buckets
looking to attack quickly with that guy closing out right
(23:49):
keys for both teams with Boston on offense for Boston
be deliberate about attacking Luca. If they let him guard
in an island, you'll wear him out. Not to mention,
you'll get great shots, but you'll wear him out, which
will hurt him on the offensive end. And most likely
you're just going to get the defense in rotation. In
the March first game, they had thirty three assists. They
had fourteen assists on their first seventeen made field goals.
(24:10):
They did a great job in that March first game
of getting the ball bouncing around, secondly pushing in transition.
You guys will see some examples in film, but anytime
they got a transition cross match, it just made it
so that Dallas couldn't run their actual defensive game plan,
which ended up in problems. So like just running up
and down the floor, forcing Dallas into cross matches will
help them. And then again, get the ball reversal in
(24:32):
every possession, Get the ball across the floor, make it
across the midline and make these guys defend against the
make these guys defend closing out rather than load it up.
Remember Dallas is a load up defense. That's what they
did to Minnesota, and they weren't very good at getting
the ball side to side. Boston has to get the
ball side to side on the Dallas front protect Luca's legs.
(24:53):
I would have him switch and then double out of
every single one of those situations. That way, he has
no screen navigation and no hard close like just make
his job super easy, because in my opinion, the best
pathway for Dallas to win this series is for Luca
to go absolutely super nova on offense and to shake
Boston's foundation the way he shook Minnesota's foundation in Game five,
(25:16):
and then to lead Boston into their bad offensive stretches.
As we know, Boston can lose sight of the goal
and their execution on offense from time to time. Luca
going super nova is a great way to play Boston
into those tendencies. Lastly, I think they need to lean
into Cleiba and Lively and then switch as much as possible. Again,
(25:37):
more stagnation, less ball movement. Boston ceiling is higher. It
just is. That's a fact going into the series. We
know Boston when they play their best, is better than anybody, right,
but they're inconsistent in that level, and so you have
to try to play them to the lower end of
their variants and the best way to do that is
when they're stagnant taking bad pull up jump shots and
(25:59):
they're not popping around in rotation getting easy shots. And
so it's gonna be tough. But like, the one guy
you have to protect is Luca, but I would switch
everybody else and leave him on an island and just
force Boston to score. And then it's gonna be about
Boston being deliberate to attack Luca and keep the defense
in rotation as much as possible. The volume
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Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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