Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
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Speaker 1 (02:13):
What is going on My People? John Middlecoff three and
out podcast. Just another beautiful day up here in the mountains,
and I was taking a little swim. I did a
couple laps would be strong. But I kind of went
from this one pier to this one doc and I
did each way twice, try to get a little workout in.
(02:33):
And I get back to this bench where my phone,
my shoes, my hat, and my stuff is a towel,
and I look at my phone and I see a
bunch of updates that Brandon Ayuk has demanded a trade
from the forty nine ers. If you're not gonna pay me,
trade me. So I said, okay, we got the open
(02:54):
of the show. We will discuss that situation, which obviously
we've discussed a lot over the last I don't know,
several months. So we'll try to find some solution to this,
if there ever becomes one. Caleb Williams signed his rookie contract.
He is now obviously Ibra Flus I think announced before
(03:16):
their rookie mini camp who was their starting quarterback. But
he's not officially under contract and we can move forward.
I think Romadoonza did that yesterday, so they're off and running,
and I think it brings the light something that happened
in the twenty eleven CBA agreement that has just made
a much more seamless transition for front offices, for coaches,
(03:38):
and for it's really benefited veteran players because what happened
in the two thousands with the rookies. I just want
to dive into that, and then we're gonna go over
a little bit of I picked a team from each
division that has the most pressure on them heading into
training camp. It doesn't mean the best team. I just
(03:58):
met the team that has the most pressure on them
heading into training gam and heading into the season. So
we'll kind of go by division by division, a little
fun little exercise. Obviously, things change as injuries happen, but
we're probably you know, you're seeing a lot of teams
and the rookies report. I would imagine by the middle
to end of next week most teams, the twenty fourth,
(04:22):
twenty third, twenty second veterans will have reported as well,
and then by the end of the next week, every
team will be on the field. Now, most teams, it
feels like that report their veterans report sometime next week.
The pads come on late July, you know, somewhere between
the twenty nine thirty at thirty first, So we're still
(04:44):
a little way from real football being played on the field.
At practice. But we're making progress. We're making progress. Seasons
not too far away, and uh yeah, so we'll have
a fun time today on this podcast, so we'll we'll
get another football podcast out tomorrow, maybe do a big
mail bag or something, because still, you know, we really
hit the ground running over the next starting middle of
(05:06):
next week, and then it's just full go till the
end of the season because it just gets wild, you know, things,
you never know what's coming. You get a Brandon Ayuk story.
It feels like every day. So yeah, you guys know
the drill. Subscribe to the podcast if you haven't subscribed
to the YouTube channel, which is obviously gonna have a
lot of content this fall with college ampro. I love
(05:27):
college football. Other than that, I think I think that
might be it. So before we dive into the show,
you know, I got to tell you about my friends,
my partners, and the official ticketing app of this podcast,
because listen, we still got summer is not even close
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(06:33):
for twenty dollars off. Download the game Time app today,
last minute tickets, lowest prices guaranteed. This Brandon Ayuk think,
I gotta be honest, is a little exhausting because I
don't think it's actually going to go anywhere. Just like
the Debo situation, he requested a trade before the draft
several years ago, and what happened. Debo ended up getting
(06:58):
a contract from the forty nine ers. He's still on
the forty nine ers and He's a pretty key piece
to what they do offensively. Now we've talked at nauseum
about Brandon Ayuk is fit in an offense that tends
to be very run heavy. The way they utilize a
wide receiver, he is never going to get the production
that some of the guys that have been paid highly.
(07:18):
He's an excellent player, he is a winning player. You
want him on your team. But because of some of
the forty nine ers contractual you know, constraints and situations,
and mainly because they have another high priced wide receiver.
And listen, if they could choose from scratch they had
to pay one guy or the other two day, they
(07:39):
would pick Ayuk over Debo. But Debo's already under contract.
And part of the reason they'd have no problem getting
rid of Debo if that was the scenario they were in,
which they're not, is because they've added Christian McCaffrey since
they paid Deebo Samuel. And we all know Christian McCaffrey
is the best running back in the league and you know,
one of the most versatile chess pieces going in all football.
(08:01):
But I think Brandon Ayuk is struggling with the fact
that he doesn't have that much leverage. You know, this
is not the NBA. When you demand a trade, they
just capitulate and you just end up on another team.
And even in the NBA, when these guys are demanding
trades and ultimately the team just doesn't want to deal
with it, they are still getting a buck fifty on
(08:21):
the dollar. I mean some of these trades recently, I
mean what Miles Bridges went for or mckel bridges, whatever,
the Bridges that went to the Knicks in the amount
that the Knicks had to give up to the Nets,
and James Harden and Kevin Duran. I mean, these trades
have been pretty crazy. So I think there's a pretty
easy solution here. One of the Bridges kind of a scumbag.
(08:41):
The other one on the Knicks is high character guy.
But if i'm the forty nine ers, they have a
long history of being very tough in contract negotiations. This
isn't just like max for you, Max for you, here's
money for you. That's not the way they've operated. Last week,
Nick Bosa, who you know, I would say Trent Williams
is their best pure player, and Nick would be one
(09:04):
b even coming off some what he would consider a
down season, had to battle for every penny. Now he
got a lot, he got a lot, but he missed
all of training camp and held out. And that's Nick Bosa,
who is more important to the forty nine ers than
Brandon Ayuk. So to think that the forty nine ers
are just going to capitulate and just give him exactly
(09:25):
what he wants, that's not how they've ever operated. And
I think here's what the forty nine ers. I got
a little solution. What if the forty nine ers said,
to listen, Brandon, this is our final offer, whatever that
is they offered him twenty six, maybe they bump it
up twenty seven. We will allow you to talk to
other teams and see if you can get more money
than that. Well, we're not just giving you away. There's
(09:48):
a floor to this, and the floor for us even
entertaining trading you because you're under contract with us and
we plan on winning the Super Bowl this year, is
we need a one and a two. So if you
could get another team to give us a first round
pick and a second round pick, because again, someone's gonna
(10:08):
have to overpay for you for us to consider trading you,
because that's not really the way this industry works. We
just give players away, then then we can have a conversation.
But how is that ever gonna happen? Because look at
look at Brandon Ayuk. He was the twenty seventh pick
in the draft, so I thought that they entertained trading
(10:31):
him last year. They won't admit it, but get some
birdies out there, those picks that Zay Flowers went. I
forget Jordan Addison, that little stretch in the early twenties
with the Ravens, with the Giants. I think they might
have pulled the trigger last year. But guess what those
teams decided, Why don't we just take a player who's
(10:54):
gonna be really good and under contract for a much
smaller number. Deebo Samuel was a second round pick for
three years. He cost them nothing. In all these teams
now drafting these wide receivers, and we just saw a
ton go in the top whatever fifty picks of the
last draft. Their incredible value. If Malik Neighbors or Marvin
(11:17):
Harrison or Roma Dunze or any of the guys that
just got drafted relatively high become high level Pro Bowl players,
they immediately become some of the best values in the
league because we know the going right for high end
wide receivers is twenty seven and above. To me, justin
Jefferson's an outlier because he's the best wide receiver in
the league. But that's where it makes it really difficult. Brandon,
(11:39):
he was like, I demand a trade. Well to who
for what? Deebo Samuel did it too, and the Jets
were kind of interested. And you know what, the Jets said,
We'll give you pick ten, but we also want like
your second round pick. I's like, what we're not doing that?
They're running a business, and I can imagine Kyle and
John are kind of exhausted with this. It's their job.
(12:00):
But let's face it, wide receivers can just be somewhat
of a pain when it comes to this stuff. They
really are. I mean, he demanded a meeting. Now he's
demanded a trade. It's like, bro, you ain't Jerry Rice
or Randy Moss. We love you, We've won a lot
with you, and we plan on winning a lot more
with you. We plan on paying you, but like, what
(12:21):
are we doing here? What do you think the endgame
is here? Who out there is willing to pay and
trade for you? Who is? Because I would argue even
if they got a first round pick alone. Let's say
the Steelers, Okay, we'll give him thirty million dollars a year.
Here's our first round pick. They would trade a first
round pick for him. But if you're the forty nine ers,
(12:42):
I'm getting a first round pick for a guy that
was a first round pick and has lived up to
the billing. What helps me? In twenty twenty four during
the season, I have a hole. And today it was
came out on the waiver wire that Ricky pearsall the
guy they drafted in the first round from Florida the
(13:04):
wide receivers, looks like he's gonna be pretty good player.
Is on the non football injury list, and at the
time of recording this, I have no clue why or
what happened, but it's pretty clear when you get put
on that list. It's not like he got injured training.
He got injured doing something and eventually, and maybe by
the time you're listening, one of you know, rap sheet
(13:25):
up Chefter put it out, or maybe Kyle and John
are talking in the next couple of days and it
gets announced what happened to him. But that's not ideal
it's not ideal at all. Maybe it's nothing, maybe it's something,
but this just shows you I'll never forget. When I
was in the NFL, a coach told me that you
can never get too arrogant with a position group because
(13:46):
a position group of strength, like you can have a
great offensive line. Right, all five guys, you got three
Pro bowlers, another two guy, solid starters. Well, then you're
right tackle tears acl and your left guard breaks his arm.
All of a sudden, the sixth and seventh offensive lineman
on your team are forced to play. You have to
sign guys off the street to fill in the practice squad,
(14:06):
in the backup spots, and all of a sudden, you're
reeling a little bit. This is a sport where guys
get injured a lot, which is why I listen. I
understand where Brandon Ayuk is coming from. I really do,
because it's so easy for any human being, for all
of us to go it's just business. Well it's also
personal because it's your business and Auks the industry. He's
(14:29):
in his businesses himself, right. Honestly, I can relate to
that at a lower number rate. But like I take
the podcast very personal and when we've ever discussed business like.
I take it pretty seriously, and it can become. It
never has in my situation, but it happens a lot
with professional athletes that they get very emotional over. So
(14:51):
I understand where he's coming from. But I think he
feels and this is why I think he's gotten aggressive
and he's won. He's had a lot of time I'm
on his hands. He's just scrolling social media, like, put
down the phone. Everything's gonna be all right. Look at
the core guys on your team. They have all been paid.
Every core guy on the team has been paid, all
of them, right, Nick Bosa, Trent Williams, Deebo, Samuel, Christian McCaffrey,
(15:17):
Fred Warner. There is not a good player on the
forty nine ers who hasn't been taken care of. But
the forty nine ers don't just look at your agent
and go, we're just gonna bend over and you just
give it to me as hard as you want. We'll
just sign whatever number you throw out. Not the way
they've ever operated. Tim Kawakami, my good buddy who's been
covering Barry Sports for I mean, feels like forever is
(15:40):
very tied in and he talks about this over and
over like this is this is parakh. You know, he's
one of the tougher negotiators in the NFL. It doesn't
mean like since I've been following the forty nine ers,
all their good players get paid all of them and
a lot of them have to battle a little bit.
And that's what Brandon Ayuka is doing. And I think
specific this battle because of the complications of the offense,
(16:03):
given their run heavy team, giving that he's never going
to be one hundred and ten catch guy in this
offense that is not going to happen. That doesn't mean
they don't need them, that doesn't mean they don't want them.
But when you're breaking down the pie chart of how
you pay someone, it complicates the situation. It's easy to go, Listen,
we have to give Nick Bosa historic amount of money
(16:25):
because ideally every single year that guy's going to give
you fifteen plus sacks and plays balls off against the
run and be widely considered one of the best edge
rushers and defensive linemen in general in the league. Brandon
AIG's a really good player. Is there any human being
if they did a list of the top five wide receivers,
they'd list him the top ten wide receivers. Maybe he
(16:48):
sneaks in depending on who you're talking to, But that's
the problem with this whole situation. But to think that
they're just gonna capitulate to his demands and just trade
them away for or not that much, because I do
have a hard time seeing a team trade a lot,
and for the forty nine ers, I would need a lot.
If I were to trade him, which I would hesitate
(17:11):
to do, I would not do it. But if it
was clear, like he's never signing my contract and he's
gonna be a pain, which he hasn't really been though
a couple of years ago him and Kyle had this
weird thing going on early in the season. But we've
seen him. He's one of the best run blockers in
the league. He's an excellent route runner. But anytime you
get these situations, like we're human beings, we all are.
(17:32):
Coaches go through it when they have contractual situations, players
go through it, which we're seeing with Ayuk. Now he's
handled it. You know, Deebo held in, Bosa held out,
and I would imagine Ayuk is holding out. But I
have a hard time trade them seeing them trade the
guy without getting just to not I mean, last time
(17:52):
they traded a really really good player to Forrest Buckner,
they got back to the thirteenth pick in the draft. Now,
they fucked up that pick, but they got the back
of the teenth pick in the draft, and it was
right before the draft, so they were whatever. However they
were gonna use that asset, which again they screwed up.
They should have just drafted Tristan Wurfs instead of trading
back one. They got cute, and they took a guy
who's no longer on their team and not a very
(18:13):
good player in jamon Kinlaw. But even if I got obviously,
if you got offered like two ones, it'd be pretty
difficult not to accept. But the problem would be then
you wouldn't have the guy on your team. And the
forty nine ers are probably there's only one team in
the league that's championship or buss now, and that's the Chiefs.
But they are easily in the short list of two
or three teams of not getting to the Super Bowl
(18:35):
and probably not winning it this year is gonna feel
like a big disappointment. You could argue just them and
the Ravens because of how close they've been. Maybe you
could throw the Eagles in there. Well, if Joe Burrow
is healthy, maybe the Bengals, but they're in that like
it's it's bus mode. You've said the Bills, but like
is it really Like if they made it the AFC
Championship game, that would feel like a pretty good accomplishment.
So this this situation, it's not like you're gonna open
(18:58):
your phone tomorrow. It's gonna be resolved. Like Buck maybe
this is his last ditch effort to try to like
spook them. They're not gonna get spooked.
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Speaker 1 (19:58):
Caleb Williams he he signed his contract today, And I
don't think the league gets enough credit for fixing the
disaster that was rookie contracts in the two thousands. Like
when I was in college, I went to college three
to eight, you know, about four and a half years,
took a quarter off, but the rookie contracts I remember
(20:20):
by the end with the Staffords and the Sews and
Matt Ryan and the JaMarcus Russell historically they were signing
these historic contracts that they were immediately depending on who
was on your team, probably the highest paid guy on
their football team. JaMarcus Russell held out for it into
the season. Crabtree, I'm pretty sure did the same. And
(20:42):
those are just two that come to mind. Guys would
hold out. The contracts were all out of whack. It
was not sustainable, and honestly, it wasn't fair to the
veteran players in the league. It was wacky, and in
twenty eleven, during the lock out, they changed that and
(21:02):
it's probably one of the best business decisions they've made
in a long time. Because your contract's a looted there's
nothing to argue about. If you're the first pick in
the draft, this is your number. Maybe we could argue
over a word here or a word there in the contract,
but the numbers are the number. It's why whenever we
(21:23):
get these weird holdouts a week into training camp, people go,
what's going on here, Like you're not getting any more money.
Maybe you argue what date the check comes in, but
it's pretty set now and I think it's smoothed the
league a lot, and I think it's benefited Like in
two thousand and let's say this was two thousand and seven,
(21:45):
if you're Caleb Williams, I mean, this would have been
a pretty nasty contract negotiation. I would have wanted a
lot of money. I mean a lot of money. And
typically those played into training camp because even at the
time you were talking like fifty sixty million dollar contracts.
This is fifteen eighteen years ago. So this has created
(22:08):
a much more seamless transition, and I think it really,
I mean now a lot of the times, how often
do you see within a couple of weeks after the
draft during OTA's just second and first round or signing,
It's like, God, this is just way easier, and I'm
glad this has taken place. I've been thinking about this
(22:34):
for a while. I picked a team in each division
that I thought easily has the most pressure on them.
So we're gonna work the AFC, then the NFC will
go east, south, northwest, and I just think that there's
nothing like the NFL. There's nothing like the amount of pressure.
(22:55):
And honestly, I mean there, I easily could have picked
probably two teams per division. The expectations are so sky high.
The ramifications of failure are firings immediately, players cut. That's
the other thing. We forever it was like you can't
blame the players, right, That's always been an old adage
(23:18):
in sports because they're always making way more than the coaches,
which is still true. But we see all the time
these high priced players when they fail, they just get
cut and teams eat it so and partly because of
the explosion league with the salary cap, it's just made
it a little bit of the wild wild West. All
these teams are rich. Some of the owners are richer
(23:39):
than others, but even the poorest owner at this point
has a lot of money. So we'll start with the AFCs.
This one's a BP fastball. It's the New York Jets.
They are going to be under a ton of scrutiny
from the moment that Monday Night football kicks off because
anything less than a playoff birth, and I think they
(24:00):
have the longest running playoff birth streak in the NFL,
and if I'm not mistaken, it might be in all
of professional team sports. Everyone's fired, it's all over, And
this Aaron Rodgers experiment was a complete disaster. Some of
it not totally their fault that no one knew he's
going to tear his achilles, but it was evident pretty early,
(24:22):
like this offensive line was problem, given why they were
revamped at this offseason. But to me, some people would
say the Bills, like they're gonna win the division again,
They'll be in the playoffs even if they lose in
the second round, Like, I don't know, you're gonna fire
a guy that's won the division five straight times. The Dolphins,
even if they take a step back this year, they
made the playoffs two years in a row. And I
(24:44):
think people forget what the Dolphins and the Bills look
like for a large period of time in my lifetime.
Once Jim Kelly and Dan Marino called her quits, it
hasn't been pretty. And the Patriots, even if they suck,
everyone kind of expects that. But you could argue, in
just the terms of the pressure rankings, it's hard to
ever get above this next team. But if you wanted
(25:06):
to put the Jets at one in the entire league,
I would hear you, partly because of the fame and
the resume of Aaron what they've done to build everything
around him, in terms of the coordinator, in terms of
signing his friends last year, in terms of how he
kind of dictates the terms of their organization. Is Robert
Sala any good? You know, I root for my bald brother,
(25:28):
But holy shit, it's been ugly. See in the East,
every team's under a lot of pressure. Obviously Washington because
they got a new coach and a new GM and
a rookie quarterback. To me, are going to get a
little bit of a soft landing zone. This year the Eagles,
that thing's a pressure cooker. But I said this the
(25:48):
other day when I was talking about, you know, the
Saquon Barkley situation. I have a hard time seeing them
not win nine ten games. I think it's borderline impossible.
Given the talent on their roster. The Giants, you could
say if they fail that their gonna heads are gonna
be rolling, I said the other day, and you know,
(26:10):
comments whatever. But the reason I think Joe Shane would
get fired if his team sucks and Saquon Barkley has
a good season is simply because if you watch that series,
watch John Marraw. John Marra keeps saying over and over
like I don't like this, I don't know, I don't
feel comfortable doing this. A new episode is supposed to
come out. I think tonight in the preview was like,
(26:32):
I don't know if I can sleep at night with
him on the Eagles. So like, the expectations for that team,
like the Patriots, aren't very high to me. The Cowboys
have Mike McCarthy, which is kind of unheard of on
the last year of his contract, and Dak Prescott, which
is definitely unheard of with the guy who's had success
on the last year of his contract. Now clearly before
(26:53):
the start of the season. That could change with Dak, though,
I think, if you've come this far, why not just
write it out and listen. If you write it out
and it works and for the first time in twenty
five years, they make the NFC Championship game, that's a
major success, right. That would mean more than likely you
won a couple playoff games. Maybe they did win the division.
I have a hard time seeing them be the number
(27:14):
one seed. So if you win two playoff games at
the NFC, even if you were to lose and Dak
would have played early orally, I understand extending him and
extending Mike, but if they win, you know, a lot
of people are kind of down on them. I've supported
them in terms of I never think they're gonna suck
as much as people think, because especially this year, they's
just a well run front office that they really are.
(27:36):
I mean, they draft pretty well, and they definitely developed
pretty well. And Mike's got some flaws, but he's clearly
not a bad coach, like kind of knows what he's doing.
Definitely have some holes. It's like they don't have a
running back if you watched Mike McCarthy coach over the years,
not really big on handing the ball off, but uh yeah,
I mean if they were to miss the playoffs. Hell,
(27:56):
if they were to do what they did last year,
have a really successful season and get beat in the
first round, I think there's a decent chance Dak and
McCarthy are not the quarterback and the head coach of
the team at the start of the twenty twenty five seasons.
So whenever you're changing a guy, especially two guys, you've
had a lot of success with three straight years twelve wins.
If I tell you right now that those two guys
are gone like that clearly be one of the two
(28:18):
of the biggest stories of the offseason. If Mike's fired,
that means the Cowboys are looking for a new head coach,
which everyone would say Bill Belichick. And if they were
just let Dak Prescott hit free agency, what the hell
would the Cowboys do at quarterback? Because we've seen them,
you know there Tony Romo days post Troy Ikman. It
can get a little weird. AFC South. This is one
(28:38):
of those situations where you give a guy two hundred
million dollars guaranteed the player ain't getting fired. So this
is a big year for Trevor Lawrence. But even if
he were to play, as the kids say mid, I
don't think it matters much for him clearly. I mean,
he's kind of on scholarship for the next couple of years.
I do think Doug Peterson's coach for his job, and
I do think Trent Alky's GM and for his job
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if they missed the playoffs, with how much they just
invested into this guy, just given a year previously, they
had won a home, they had won the division, they
had won a playoff game, I think you could see
a scenario where the Jags, with you know, Trevor Lawrence
at quarterback, are looking for a head coach in a
gym and like, let's go around Titans. They just have
(29:20):
a new operation. The Texans like, even if they come
back to Earth a little bit, those guys aren't going anywhere.
And the Colts, like I think they're pretty high on everybody.
So even if they were to win less games they
did last year, I don't think anything's changing. I think
the pressure on the Jags, which is weird because no
one really cares about the Jags but just from the owner,
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if they missed the playoffs, I would expect the GM
and the coach to be fired. The NFC South is
a tough one because I easily could have put the
Saints here, because if the Saints missed the playoffs, I
think Dennis Allen and Derek Carr would no longer be
the coach and the quarterback of the team. But it's
hard for me to expect them to make the playoffs though.
(30:01):
I actually think I haven't decided who I'm gonna pick
for that division. I think the easy one is Tampa.
I told myself I would never pick the Saints again
after I did it last year because of Dennis Allen,
but now Derek with Kubiak, they could be a sleeper.
But I think this one's an easy one. It's the Falcons.
Given the quarterback dynamic of drafting Panics. With Cousins coming
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off the injury, that's got a chance to get weird
and weird fast. And if that thing gets weird, it's
one of those teams that everyone's gonna be talking about
because of the quarterback dynamic. With the eighth overall pick
sitting behind Cousins, I saw Raheem Moore say this the
other day and listen. I love a good quote. I
don't hate arrogance. You know, if you're gonna say something crazy,
(30:48):
it's kind of entertaining. He was essentially asked in an
interview why his coaching staff was so big, and he
basically answered, because we plan on winning here, and when
you win, people take your coaches, and we want to
have coaches on the staff that are ready to fill
in for those guys when they get hired, like I'm sorry,
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like like the confidence, like the bravado, like Raheen whenever
I see him talk like I kind of want to
hang out with this guy. Pretty bold thing to say
for a squad that has won seven games three years
in a row. I think the Falcons internally think their
team is like the Lions are the forty nine ers.
I think deep down they think like we're eleven twelve
(31:33):
win team, and I fuck, I don't see it. I
don't see it at all. I think this things could
come off the rails and quick. Now, maybe Cousins is awesome,
but a thirty six year old guy coming off that injury,
I don't know. I mean, that's why everyone is kind
of questioning Rodgers, like, that's a pretty major injury. And
(31:53):
Rogers is in a different universe than Cousins. So that team, man,
they're going to be a top point, definitely early on
in the season if things get weird. The AFC North.
This one's hard because you can say the Ravens given
how close they've been, but Harbaugh lamar ain't going anywhere,
(32:14):
and their operation like pretty well entrenched. I want to
say the Steelers because of the quarterback situation, but I've
learned that lesson. It is pointless to talk about Mike
Tomlin's job security. It's pointless. It's pointless to go on
these rants to be like it's time for a change.
It is just a healthy time for a change. Just
look at each other and go like, not all divorces
(32:37):
are knocked down dragouts. Some are. I saw it with
Andy Reid Jeffrey Luriy. It was like, you know what,
let's go our separate ways. I think you're a great owner,
you think I'm a great coach, but this is no
longer working like That's that was my example. But Steelers
just aren't gonna do that. If you tell me Mike Tomlin,
the over under is he coaching the rest of the
twenty twenties. I would say, yes, I am no longer
(32:59):
saying that because it's a pointless exercise to have when
he's never going anywhere. Could say the Bengals, but I
just think there's some unknown with Burrow to see how
healthy he is, I think it has to be the Browns.
I mean, they traded all their draft picks for the
quarterback and then they gave him his historic amount of
(33:21):
guaranteed money, and beside one half of football, he has
objectively been a below average player and a lot of
people I did my top ten list and I left
out Stefanski, and I'll be honest, I just kind of
forgot about him. And if I think I had to
do it again, he definitely would be in the mix.
I think Kevin Stefanski is a good coach, and clearly
Andrew Berry from the roster building standpoint that their team
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is very, very talented, like they we saw last year
Blacko came in. They have really good players in a
lot of different positions. But if this guy stinks and
for a lot of last year in the previous year
when he came back after the suspension, he's not that good.
Is he the most reliable human being right on and
off the field. I mean, now he's battling injuries, let
alone everything that's you know, followed him around since the
(34:06):
Houston days. I don't know, man, I just Vrabels a
consultant there. I just think I don't know what happens, Like,
how do you get rid of this guy that you're
basically you got on the books for sixty three million
guaranteed or as CAP hits the next three years this year,
twenty five, and twenty six. But I do think there's
a lot of pressure specifically on Deshaun Watson, which let's
(34:29):
pressure on the Cleveland Browns, the NFC North. I think
you throw Minnesota away because the Sam Darnold JJ McCarthy situation.
They're kind of going through a transitional period. I think
the Packer guys after last year, even if they were
to take a step back, they haven't extended Jordan Love
at the time of recording this, so they're not, you know,
(34:51):
locked in stone with him forever. Though I decent chance
it could have eventually happened here during training camp, but
those guys aren't going anywhere. You have have the Lions,
I mean, Dan Campbell just got to the NFC Championship
game for the first time with the organization in thirty
plus years. I think it's the first time since like
nineteen forty something. They won two playoff games in the
(35:12):
same year. So Dan Campbell has done a fucking remarkable job.
Those guys are they just got contract extensions. It's got
to be the Bears because, like I said, with the Jets,
the Cowboys, the pressure, just the way it's nationally and
locally talked about. You could make the argument there is
(35:33):
more hype around the Bears for a team that you
know hasn't been in the playoff mix than any team
in the league than any team in the league because
of Caleb, because of their roster, because some of their moves,
and rightfully so, I mean, they're pretty intriguing team, got
some good defensive pieces. You add this guy that many
consider a generational quarterback and I think he has generational skills.
(35:55):
You had you trade for Keenan Allen, a high end
winning player. You had another top ten pick, you draft
another sweet wide receiver. So now you got DJ Moore,
Rome and Keenan with this generational quarterback. You had DeAndre
Swift you're going well. Our offense last year at times
was anemic. Even if it is average, sometimes it's going
to be way better than it was last year. And
(36:16):
we were writing all these games, so I said it
from the beginning. I thought, if you had any question
marks on the coach, last year was the time to
do it. But the Bears, I'm not comparing them to
the Steelers this way, but the mom and pop way
that they operate, they ideally never want to change, like
they're kind of living in the past. Know some people
(36:38):
that have worked there, but they didn't fire him, And
I'm not even saying eber Flus is that bad. We're
gonna find out this year, but it was pretty risky
when you had the chance to kind of reset, and
they stayed loyal to him. If they don't make the
playoffs this year, I have a hard time seeing him survive.
Now you could make the argument if he goes nine
to eight and they miss it and they showed a
(37:00):
lot of progress, But is he getting a contract extension
they make him just coach on the last year of
his contract. I think there's a ton of pressure on
the Bears because if they won seven games, which I'm
pretty sure they did last year, it would feel like
one of the biggest disappointments in the league. And I've
said this over and over, like I like Caavila Williams
a lot, and I think if he can learn to
(37:22):
play in the construct of an NFL offense while doing
his ad libability, he's going to be a high end
quarterback in the league. But even if he becomes just
a great player, like eventually becomes a consistent top five
quarterback in the league, sometimes rookie years can be tough.
And I think sometimes when you see a year like CJ. Stroud,
(37:44):
we all just think, oh, it's really easy. It's all
these top guys. That's usually not the way it works.
There's usually growing paints, there's usually problems. And let's face it, like,
is there a team in the league that wouldn't take
Demico and Slowick being around a quarterback? Thenluse and who
they hire? I guess they fired? Getsye they hired? Was
(38:04):
it Shane Waldron is their new offensive coordinator? It just
could be tough, It really could. And you go to
growing pranes as a young player. Now the argument for
him is just like there are so many weapons, how
does he fail there are some question marks with the
Bears offensive line, and last year he saw it at
USC who had it was an embarrassment for the program,
(38:29):
an embarrassment for Lincoln Riley. I'm not comparing the Bears
offensive line to what he dealt with last year, but
he was running for his life and he's a guy
that can run for his life and still make plays.
But that is when you make mistakes. So if they
can protect them, there aren't really any excuses not to.
I would say, win ten games, and if you win
(38:49):
ten games and missed the playoffs, like what are you
gonna do? But if what if they win eight and
they missed the playoffs by a couple of games, I
think you'd start hearing Mike Vrabel or someone like that.
The AFC West, This was tough, obviously. I mean the
Chiefs have internal pressure every year. But you went back
to back Super Bowls and three and five years, like shit,
(39:12):
you're you make clark on a lot of money. The
Denver Broncos gave a coach ninety million dollars. They let
him cut Russell Wilson, but he does have a rookie
quarterback this year. The Raiders. I think we all agree
are how can they be good? They do not have
a quarterback, so the expectations there aren't very high. Obviously,
(39:34):
Jim Harbaugh is going to be the Chargers coach for
a while. He could win zero games this year, which
would be insane, but let's just hypothetically say that happened.
He ain't gonna get fired. I do think, though, when
you have a quarterback of this stature, and listen, you
don't need to hear me praise Justin Herbert. Just YouTube
(39:54):
Jim Harbaugh, Justin Herbert. Listen to the way this guy
talks about him. Obviously, they turned over the roster a
little bit. But every time you coach a season with
a quarterback in his prime who's really, really talented, and
you don't make the playoffs, it's a really, really big disappointment.
We talked about this on the mail bag, probably earlier
(40:15):
this week or last week. I guess it would have
been earlier this week about Philip Rivers, and I said,
you know, his career actually was a big underachievement when
you look at the totality of it, because of how
talented he was, he had flaws. I'm not acting like
he's Peyton Manning or Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. But
he was a really, really good player, but his organization
(40:37):
let him down, it really did. I mean, they made
him play for guys like Mike McCoy and Anthony Lynn.
It's just that can't happen. That's why they went out
and got Jim Harbaugh after Brandon Staley, which was another
embarrassment as well. I just think that one, I think
the charge is gonna be pretty good, but I do
think there's pressure on them, and you're just anytime Jim
(40:58):
Harbaugh's involved, Like part of the reason we talked a
lot about the Chargers the last couple of years was
specifically about Brandon Staley and just the everything that surrounded that.
And obviously, I just I had sniffed him out like
a rat three years ago. I knew right away when
all the media was doing a giant circle jerk about
(41:20):
how great he was at press conferences, like I was
out and one, I don't get him all right, nailed
that one. But Jim Harbaugh, he just brings. He brings eyeballs,
He brings expectation, and I think for the first time,
like the Chargers have had pressure over the last whatever
half decade because they've had a talented roster. But when
(41:42):
they failed, we all went, well, no shit. They had
Brandon Staley, they had Anthony Lynn. Like, these guys are
gonna win the trainer or the doctor poked tyrot too.
They don't even know how to administer a you know,
a tortooll shot. That's not the case with Jim Marball.
Even your floor with Jim Marball. His disastrous last season
(42:06):
in the NFL with the forty nine ers. He went
eight to eight and I'm pretty sure he had like
a bad finish. They lost like three of the last
five games. I don't know, man, I just think it's
gonna be the Chiefs feel this because they got Andy Reid.
I think the Broncos with that's what he brings. He
brings a different level of expectation. And in the NFC West,
to me, it's pretty simple. As the forty nine Ers,
(42:28):
this might be their best chance to win the Super
Bowl once they figure out this IU situation, especially if
he doesn't get traded, which I don't expect him to
get traded. You know, you can't keep these rosters together forever.
They're gonna have to pay the quarterback more than likely
next year, they're not gonna have to. They want to.
They're going to. And you've seen it with the Chiefs.
The team that won the Super Bowl in twenty nineteen
(42:50):
was not the team that won the Super Bowl this February, right,
we saw the Patriots go through different iterations of their team.
That's part of building in the NFL with the salary cap.
You keep core players, ideally your quarterback, and then you
shift guys around him as time goes. And this forty
(43:10):
nine er team is clearly really really talented, and they
have been knocking on the doorstep, I mean three years ago.
If Kwaski Tart just catches the fucking ball, they're in
the super Bowl. Right last year they have a lead
multiple times in the Super Bowl. And the team in
twenty twenty six, some of these players are not going
(43:31):
to be there. George Kittle's thirty years old, Trent Williams
is thirty five years old, Deebo Samuel, his contract starts
getting kind of outrageous in terms of its cap implications, right, So,
like you could see huge turnover over time. If I
had to pick Christian McCaffrey's a running back and you
just never know what those positions. So the time is now,
(43:56):
the time was last year, and the time is going
to be this year. But if they can't get it done,
you might have to go through one of those situations
like She's not the Chiefs, where you just change up
the roster. They just happen to have one of the
greatest quarterbacks of all time. I like brock Purty a lot,
and I like them a lot more than basically the
majority of people to talk about football, but like, he
(44:16):
doesn't need help, you know. And I just think there's
a ton of pressure on this team that they have
had some devastating, devastating losses at the end of the season.
Now luckily for them, it's been the end of the
season in the NFC Championship Game or the Super Bowl,
relative to some of these teams that can't even dream
about getting that far. But their expectations have clearly changed
(44:39):
dramatically over the last three or four years. And I
think that anything less than a Super Bowl victory with
this roster. You could look back. I saw what the
hardball teams. It was like, Oh, this team's going to
dominate for seven eight years, and all of a sudden,
like after two and a half, it was kind of over,
Like Patrick Willis retires, Navarrol moments Leg snapped. You know,
(45:00):
just things change, Bam Davis just quits. I mean, things
just change. Look how different the Bill's roster is now
than it was two and a half years ago. So
the forty nine ers have all these guys under contract.
They're all high end, elite players. Some of them are
going to the Hall of Fame. You know, Trent's the
first ballot Hall of Famer. I think Fred Warner's definitely
(45:22):
on that trajectory. But Christian McCaffrey's the best running back
in the league. Kittles a high end tight end times Now, man,
I just don't I don't really know what else to say.
It's just you gotta get it done. Like there's pressure
on the Jets and the Cowboys because like guys are
gonna get fired. There's pressure on the Niners because like
(45:42):
what else do we need? Right? I mean, ideally we'd
like like Lane Johnson at right tackle. But fuck, this
isn't Madden twenty five. Is real life football. Our roster.
How many teams in the league can just look in
the mirror and go they're better player for player than us.
It's a very short list, if any list. Maybe the
Ravens could have said it last year, maybe, but they
(46:05):
lost in the NFC Championship game. I think top to
bottom you could have argued that the Niners roster in football,
just because your roster's better doesn't mean you win the game.
But how many guys last year on the Chiefs and
the forty nine ers. If we just drafted the top
fifteen players, I'd have to go through the exercise, but
I would imagine there'd be more Niners than Chiefs. Now. Obviously,
the Chiefs have the Edgit coach and they have the
(46:26):
edged quarterback, which is a big deal. But I think
the forty nine Ers feel pretty good about their situation
at those two spots, and it's hard to feel much
better about all the other spots. Right. Like I would
say the Lions would be in a similar situation, but
like they're kind of the Lions, you know, if they
just were to and I mean that, I listen, I'm
a Lions guy, like I love their operation. My point is,
(46:49):
if the Lions go back to the NFC Championship Game
and lose, it's hard for me to call that a failure.
It means this disfranchise, which has sucked my entire life,
went to back to back NFC champion games. If the
forty nine ers lost in the NFC Championship game, you'd go,
how many times you're gonna lose in the NFC Championship game?
How many times it's gonna happen. That'd be like their
(47:10):
fourth or fifth NFC Championship lost in the last fourteen years.
It'd be a fucking problem. If they got back to
the super Bowl and lost, you'd be like, that's the
fourth super Bowl you've lost since twenty twelve. Like, eventually,
are we gonna get it done? Are we just kind
of the early nineties bills of this of this league,
because that's what they would kind of start to feel
(47:31):
like the early ninety bills of the nineties or the Yeah,
I already said that, you know what I mean? If
they just can't finally get over the hump, the volume