August 1, 2024 • 45 mins
Are the Carolina Panthers ready to pounce this season? Action Network NFL experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are back to discuss the NFC South, including strong opinions on the lowly Carolina Panthers. Plus, we get their takes on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Atlanta Falcons, and dreadful Dennis Allen and his New Orleans Saints.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to The Favorites the Podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
That's right, I said, Volume Podcast Network. For those listeners
of the show longtime listeners at the show, you may
remember we were on the Volume with the Volume and
(00:31):
Colin Power first launched the show or the network in
twenty twenty one. We love being partners with the Volume.
We're partners with them for two years. I am still
and have always been on Collins Sharper Square segment on
his show on the Volume every Thursday Friday during the
NFL season. We're back on the Volume Network after a
(00:57):
brief hiatus. We love our friends at the Volume. We're
so excited to be back with them and to also
be bringing back the number one sports betting show in America.
For those who are new, you are now part of
our crew. I am joined as I always am. Bye,
(01:21):
my co host, my companion, my compadre, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon, Hello.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Chat another week closer to the start of the season,
brother and listen.
Speaker 1 (01:36):
What we want to do is get to the season again.
For those who are new and haven't heard us before
because you've been tuning in to the volume. We will
go through the next six weeks every division. We will
talk about season win totals. We will talk about odds
to win the division. We will talk about odds to
win the Super Bowl. Where we think the value is
(01:57):
for every team. Once we get in the season. The
way this works, Simon and I will do a show
on Tuesday in which we break down every single game,
our leads, the games we like, the games we're interested in,
the games that we're going to do a little more
work for. On Thursday, we give everybody what will likely
be our five favorite picks that we will put into
(02:22):
our free to play one hundred thousand dollars prize pool
pick'em contest that all of you are welcome to enter.
We will announce that in the coming weeks. Once we
get closer to the season and everything is set up,
you will get to join again free to play. You
(02:43):
will have the chance to win one hundred thousand dollars
to be part of a one hundred thousand dollars prize pool.
I think last year first prize got like forty thousand dollars.
Producer Matt Mitchell can keep me honest on that. But
Simon and I put those picks in every week. So
what happens is you get to compete against me and
Simon in the contest on Sunday nights before the NFL game.
(03:06):
On Sunday night after the late games, in that seven
thirty pm Eastern window, Simon and I will do a
quick show. We will talk about our early leans for
the next week, and we will also review the heartbreak
and the triumph of how we did with our five
picks and where we stand in the contest. I'm looking
forward to all you joining us for the ride, and
(03:28):
by the way, joining the contest. Last year, we had
twelve thousand people sign up for the contest, so super
excited to run it back this year. Today, me and Simon,
we're gonna be discussing the NFC South over the next
few weeks. We're gonna have tons of guests. We're gonna
(03:48):
have Field Yates from ESPN is gonna come.
Speaker 2 (03:51):
On the show.
Speaker 1 (03:52):
Warren Sharp Sharp Football Analysis is gonna come on the show.
They're gonna help us break down some divisions, plus talent
from the Action netw work. As a reminder, the Favorites
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(04:35):
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by clicking the link in this episode description. All right,
here we go. We're gonna talk about the NFC South.
Most people would say, I don't want to talk about
this division. You got the Falcons who have Kirk Cousins
(05:22):
coming back joining the team, coming back from an Achilles tear.
You got the Saints who are middling and uninteresting. You
got the Bucks who are middling and uninteresting. You got
the Panthers, who might be one of the worst teams
in the league. But that's not how Simon and I feel.
Sometimes you got to do bad things if you want
to win bets. I will remind people nineteen of the
(05:45):
past twenty one seasons, an NFL team has gone from
worst to first in its division. The Texans did it
last year in the AFC South. The Bucks did it
last year in the NFC South. Simon Panthers. Right now,
Panthers are plus eleven hundred to win the division, two
(06:09):
fifty to one to win the Super Bowl. Their season
win total is four and a half. I will say
for this entire division, I just outlined, like what people
think about this division, that's what the markets think as well.
The Falcons Panthers, saintsan Bucks have a combined win total
of thirty that is the fewest for any division by
(06:32):
more than three wins this year. Normally we'll talk about
the teams from the top to the bottom. I feel
like we got to talk about the Panthers because we
have Sean Kerner, who is one of our best analysts,
who created the Luck Rankings, which is one of the
best metrics we follow to find advantages and opportunities and
how the market is not judging teams correctly talked about
(06:56):
on the show a couple weeks ago said the Panther
were the most unlucky team last year. We bet the
Panthers so often last year, our second place contest winner
bet him so often that he came in second place
and still has nightmares. Talk me off a ledge about
the Panthers, because you know, I love everything about them
(07:18):
right now.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
No I can't. I mean that that number is two extreme,
just because of all the hate they've gotten in sports
meeting and everything like that. And we talked the time
how much the NFL is driven by the sports media narrative,
and I, for six months, yelling from roof tops, could
not wrap my head around Bryce Young being our first
round pick. I kept saying anyone that's not you know,
(07:42):
in bed with all these agents were in bed with
Nick Sabe and Alabama. They have a second round grade
in this kid. He is five ten, five eleven on
a good day. Like that's just the reason you've never
seen it before the NFL is there's a reason, right,
It's like, can the guy see in the middle of
the field. Can he make pass over his offensive line
to the middle of the field. I mean it sounds crazy.
(08:03):
Last year he could not, like he could not and
even when he could do it, his teammates were just
letting him down consistently, Like he just did not have
the guys. And you know they've tried to address that
stuff in this draft, right, they went out and got
a rode receiver. I don't know if it's gonna be
that big of a change, but what me and Chat
are talking about is they've improved the offensive line, which
was where they needed to start. That's where they needed
to take that money from this rookie contract. You know,
(08:26):
they have all this money to spend, that's where they
invested it because they know this defense it's a two
to three year rebuild right, that defense is not gonna
be rebuilt over in it. They already had tony holes
going into last season. You know, they've traded away Brian Burns,
one of their best players by far, because they they
need to keep improving, right, they needed this team needs
a lot of things that he was not going to
(08:46):
fix all these issues out of defensively. So do me
and Chad really think the team's gonna in this division?
Most likely not, But we've seen crazier things, right, Like
we just talked about Houston, like a couple of games
bounce your ways, and a couple of teams this division,
you know they struggle towards the end of the year.
We were talking about eleven to one ticket here on
this dumb Divisionally, me and chat will able to take
(09:07):
a position in the final two weeks to either hedge
this bet or if we believe in it, which unfortunately
we probably will because we liked this Panther team. That's
gonna be the reason. So people kept asking, like, how
can you reach taking the Panthers this year when you
spent so much time last year shitting on Bryce Young?
That was different. That was really just me talking about
how I just I just knew for a fact their
(09:27):
gym didn't make that pick, and then it solely came
out that it was their owner that kind of stepped
in and made the pick on Bryce Young. So we've
kind of moved on from that point. I think last
year was really about the coaching and the players. Everyone
was just going through it and there was just nothing
left in that team, where this year they are feeling
pretty good. I mean, I've seen a couple of beer
righters talking about like there is a different vibe in
a different sense around this team and coming into the season.
(09:50):
So yeah, if you're if you're if you're like, you
know what, I don't really want to invest heavily into this team,
do We mean? Chat is not going to take the
divisional bet, but how do you not bet the over
four and a half? Like, even just talking about their
division and the fact they have a last place schedule,
I feel I really do feel like they're gonna hit
this number of people. Like they're not as bad as
you perceive. There. They beat Houston last year, a team
(10:12):
we're raving about right now. This team did beat Houston,
Like they do have guys on this team that can
make plays and they can't step up even Green Bay Packers.
I think the Packers did beat them, but Bryce Young
put up over thirty points against that Packers defense. Like
we saw moments, we saw flashes. They I just really
don't think they had the coach lastow. I don't even
know if they had the coaching this year. But I
(10:32):
know it's gonna better than what was last year. I
can guarantee you, because last year I feel like the
guys totally quit on the guys who are running that team.
Or this year, I just don't get that sense at all.
So yeah, like I'm telling you, of all the lowest
win total teams, a lot of the guys I get
the under Like I took Tennessee's under, which I usually don't.
On totals that low, you have to tick the over
this one. I got this one model at six wins.
(10:54):
That's a game and a half of value right here.
Like that, that's a nice wide range of value here.
That factors in what we talked about with Sean, the
bad luck right that they had last year. We got
to see some of that even out right. It's just
probability we're playing here, So I know, hold your nose, people,
it's a gross one, but divisional odds at this number,
(11:15):
you got to take it. Over four and a half wins,
you got to take it. Super Bowl odds. Don't waste
your money. Do not waste your money in the Super
Bowl adds. There's no chance. I don't care how big
of a step Bright Young takes. I just I have
them so far behind as a team, just because again
I told you they're rebuilding that defense. So divisional win total,
that's where you're gonna get the best bang for your buck.
Speaker 1 (11:37):
Yeah, the strength of their schedule is tenth easiest. Again,
things that that we look at for those who are
new to the show, we talk a lot about offensive
and defensive line is how we're trying to find value
because when the market is creating numbers, whether it's odds
to win the Super Bowl or season win totals or
(11:59):
even during the season favorites, underdogs, etc. A lot of
times it doesn't account for offensive and defensive line. The
reason why professional betters spend the preseason watching every snap
of the game is because they want to know in
Week five, if the backup guard is playing, what kind
(12:22):
of impact is going is that going to have on
the game? And the team. What happens from the inside
out is so important for betting generally. So we will
look at strength of schedule and that is based on
the aggregate season win total number for the teams that
the team we are talking about is playing for the
upcoming season, in this case twenty twenty four. We will
(12:44):
look at the offensive line rank according to Pro Football Focus,
which I love their offensive line ranks and how they
great players and their defensive line rank so again, according
to Pro Football Focus, strength to schedule for Carolina tenth
easiest this year, again speaks to the power of betting.
The over four and a half offensive line rank twenty
(13:05):
and that is with big investments in free agency Damian
Lewis and Robert Hunt, who was a very highly rated
offensive lineman according to Pro Football Focus, and like you said,
they traded away Brian Burns, one of the best ed
rushers in the league. Their defensive line rank is twenty nine.
They're basically starting from scratch with this unit. But as
(13:27):
I said, betting means doing bad things right, and so
let me give you some stats about how disgusting it
is that we are spending as much time as we
are talking about the Carolina Panthers, who we love so much.
We love going back to last year because they were
so undervalued in the market. Carolina Panthers have the longest
(13:52):
Super Bowl odds of any team entering this season, at
two hundred and fifty to one, So the first time
since two thousand and five two thousand and six San
Francisco forty nine ers that a team that picked number
one in the NFL Draft. So last season they picked
number one Bryce Young and had the worst Super Bowl
odds the following season, So nobody thinks they got any better,
(14:13):
and there's reasons for that, right. They haven't covered a
spread in which they were favored since twenty twenty one,
almost three full seasons. Last year, they averaged just four
point one yards per offensive play. That was the year
worst mark for any team since the Bengals in two
thousand and eight. Their four point one yards per offensive
(14:34):
play was the third lowest for any team since nineteen ninety,
almost thirty five years. They didn't snap a ball last
year while leading in the fourth quarter of a single game,
the first time that's happened in the wild Card era
again since nineteen ninety. Are you ready for me to
(14:58):
tell you the good news, sigmon, Yes, because right now
it feels like, how can we be telling anybody how
much we love the Carolina Panthers, And by the way,
we do love them at eleven to one, we do
love the over four and a half one more for you,
How bad was Bryce Young? Last year? You're supposed to
(15:21):
ask me how bad was?
Speaker 2 (15:22):
How bad was?
Speaker 1 (15:23):
Only three quarterbacks in NFL history have had eleven past
touchdowns or less, ten interceptions or more, and less than
sixty percent completion percentage with fifty plus secks. Bryce Young,
Blake Bortles, David Carr, You've just been bortled? Do you
(15:48):
or do you not feel less confident thinking about all
this and then picturing Bryce Young walking into camp with
a backpack that made him look like he was entering
his first day of kindergarten.
Speaker 2 (16:06):
But again it goes back to how stupid football is?
You just talk about Blake Bortles. I mean, three years
later he almost beat Tom Brady, almost played the Eagles
in the Super Bowl, and then two years after that
he was out of the league. So it is a
crazy sport where these guys just they can find it
in the right for a couple of years and then
it's just gone. And I don't think any of us
(16:27):
sitting here will be shocked if Bryce Young is out
of the league in four or five years, or you know,
if he does somehow get a next contract. But it's just,
you know, we talk all the time about the butterfly
effect in this league, and Lovey Smith didn't quit on
his team in Houston, made them play it out. They
somehow fought tooth and nail got the second pick overall,
(16:48):
which gave Carolina the chance to trade up to Chicago
to get their number one pick. And what they do.
They took Bryce Seawan Houston, who did all the right things,
didn't try to tank. They got their guys CG number two.
And it's just how it is a football. It's like
those bizarre things. They're all connected. And now the following year,
instead of you guys having the twenty fifth pick or
(17:08):
twenty fourth pick, what Houston's picking now, which is what
Carolina's pick probably would have been, because again they would
add CJ and probably would have won their division and
been a playoff team. You guys had the number one pick,
and you got a generational talent in Chicago. So we
talk all the time, but all these different things that
are connected, and that's how I feel with Carolina. It's
like last year couldn't have got any worse. It was
(17:30):
all so negative, and they put him in such a
position to fail. I mean, their best receiver. If you
go look at it, it was adding feeling and this
guy is like a day away from retiring. That's how
bad of a team they were. This guy was able
to be by far their best offensive weapon. It's just
not going to be that way this year. I just
do have faith that Bryce Young was all on its
head last year and this year they feel free and loose.
(17:51):
And again the b Raiders are saying they've looked better
so far since the camps have started. So that's what
me and Chat are playing putting faith in, is that
they just had the season from hell, had crazy bad luck.
Now they've added pieces at this team. Again, we're not
talking super Bowl here, but can they get to six
seven wins? I think they can. Could they shock the
arn and get to nine and eight and somehow win
(18:12):
this division like Tampa did last year. I think things
could break that way. But it's also again we're about
to go through these other teams here. All these other teams,
they have their own wards here. So that's why this
division to me feels like it's wide open rather than
you know, eleven to one chat to win this division.
That just feels so extreme.
Speaker 1 (18:27):
Yeah, I think that's why we're convincing ourselves here.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
We are.
Speaker 1 (18:32):
I think there's three things in play. Number one, how
badly they did last year. Things things can't go that
badly again, It's almost statistically impossible. Everybody in betting is
always going to bet the balance back right, We're buying
at the lowest part of the market for the Carolina
(18:54):
Panthers across multiple markets, especially when it comes to season
win totals at four and a half and to win
the division at eleven to one. We like the fact
that they were so incredibly unlucky last season, as Kerner
pointed out Sean Kerner, the unluckiest team in the NFL
per Our Luck rankings. Let me give you a couple
(19:15):
of stats from one of our other brilliant analysts. You
can listen to them on the Action Network podcast, Chris
Raibam win totals. These are going to make us feel better.
Win totals for teams that won four or fewer games
in the prior season are a fifty eight percent to
(19:36):
the Over the past twenty two years, win totals for
teams that won four or fewer games in the prior
season and then hired a new head coach fifty nine
percent the last twenty years. Win totals for teams with
first time head coaches to the over our fifty seven
percent since two thousand and two. Win totals for teams
(19:57):
that won four fewer games in the prior season and
nan hired a first time head coach sixty seven percent
since two thousand and two. So I like that we
are betting on them to go over because all of
the trends say they will do better from whether it's luck,
(20:22):
whether it's bottom of the market, whether it's the season
win total. Betting data that we have from the past
twenty years. Love it Panthers eleven to one. Panther's over
four and a half. If nobody takes anything else from
this show, that's what they have to take. But look,
(20:44):
Atlanta is also a really intriguing team, and Atlanta has,
according to their opponents' win totals, the easiest schedule in
the NFL. They have one of the best offensive lines
top ten ranked offensive line number eight, Drew Dollmond their
center one of Pro football focused highest rated run blocking centers,
(21:04):
and Chris lichtrom highest rated overall guard, great offensive line.
Defensive line ranked twenty eighth. They last had a player
with ten sacks in twenty sixteen, Vic Beasley. Since twenty
seventeen is the only team in the NFL without a
ten sack season by any player. The key here is
(21:25):
is Kirk Cousins. Does he come back from the Achilles
injury or not?
Speaker 2 (21:30):
Yeah? And I thought he wasn't going to come back
this soon. Like I made a bet on Penix. I
think it was eighty to one or seventy five to
one to be Rookie of the Year. It was simply
taking a position of Okay, say this kid, Penick starts
weeks one through three and they're three and oh, or
they're two and one and he's playing. Well, do you
think they really put Kirk in over this kid. I
(21:50):
don't think they do. It's a business at the end
of the day, and the business plan is find the
rookie contract right. And their view of it was I
talked about it last year. They tried moving to get
a quarterback last year and it just did not work
out right, so they rolled with it, and they realized quickly,
we've just wasted entire season of this organization. And their
owner is one of the older owners in the league,
(22:12):
and I think he came down to them said listen,
I just want a quarterbacks that can trust him. Go
get me Kirk. They go get Kirk, and then they
watch Pennix's film, they fall in love with him. I mean,
I was shocked by a Chad was shocked. I think
Johnny Manziel is the only person in the world not
shocked by him going at number eight, which is the truth.
Like I had a high grade in the kid, but
he does have some wards. But it's like Chad just
talked about, you give him a great offensive line of weapons,
(22:35):
Pennix is gonna thrive. Like that's the perfect setup for
this kid. And you know, Kirk, we're gonna see because
Kirk is an Aaron Rodgers. He's never been Aaron Rodgers.
Even at Kirk's best right, We've always viewed him as
a top twelve, top fifteen guy because he has these
moments where he's the top eight guy, but then the
next game, he's just back to the old Kirk right,
(22:55):
back to tons of turnovers. They're just making bonehead plays.
And that's the issue with Kirk Cousins. He's just he's
never been consistent his whole career. And you know, he's
done great, He's done really well, right, a couple ten
win seasons. Him and the Vikings had that incredible run
where they won their division and me and Chap were
just like, this team are frauds, right, and that Giants
sure enough went it to Minnesota, they beat them in
(23:17):
the playoffs. And that's kind of how I feel about Kirk,
where it's like, you know, if I won ten wins
healthy Kirk, if I got offensive weapons around him, he's
gonna get me to ten wins. Like That's why it's
hard to bad mouth Kirk, because he has been so
much better than all these other guys. But we don't
know we're getting right now. I read the other day
but a beat right talking about how he's still not
(23:38):
pushing off that foot, right, he's still doing quick throws.
He's not really cranking out the hard throws out to
the outs, right, He's not putting all his weight into
and throwing deep balls. Yet it's like he's really being
careful and tender with Aaron Rodgers. I just watched him
in the Jets practice. He's got no restrictions. He's all
over the place, moving, throwing on the run, putting all
his weight onto it, stepping into it. He's got no
(24:00):
worries right now with that Achilles. So that's that's the
caution tail here is you are betting a minus twenty
favorite divisional bet right now on a team with a
guy that we are so unsure of in a defense
that I think they're a bottom twenty five, bottom of
twenty seven, you know, defense, Like they're they're really projected
low in my model. So offensively, I get why people
(24:22):
are so enamored with this team. It's just they have,
you know, a top three running back and Drake Lynn
on the outside is a great receiver. And Kyle Pitts,
we know he's a great tight end. He's just never
had a quarterback get him the ball. And what is
Kirk Cousins love. He loves a good tight end. So
like you should see growth there. But it's like there's
so many questions here where I mean, we've had guests
on We're like yeah, the Land is a slam duncan.
(24:44):
It's like, how can you feel that way about this team?
Like they do have so many questions in a division
we talk all the time is really wonky. And Chad
said they have the easiest schedule. They hit the second
easiest schedule a off football. Last year the Saints had
number one. Neither of them made the playoffs Tampa, but
we this is left for dead. They were the team
that took care of their easy schedule and we were
able to make the playoff runs. So that's my issue
(25:06):
with Atlanta is be cautious. People thirty to one super
Bowl odds. You are crazy if you're betting them thirty
to one to win Super Bowl. I mean, that's that's insane.
Like they should be like the Jaguars, they should be
fifty to one. But maybe they don't have that that
low of jit just because people are like, well, if
they won the division, they'll be the fourth seed, they'll
get a home game. It's just is there a home
(25:26):
field advantage to Atlanta? I don't know, it's been so
long since they've had any type of really big fan base.
I mean even that Matt Ryan run I guess the
last time, I guess is twenty sixteen. It was when
the last time they really liked that, So just be
careful people. They're a team I've taken their under I
haven't projected nine to eight again half a game, not
putting that much money on it. But it's like, yeah,
(25:48):
they to me have too many questions to be a
team that's minus won twenty for this division and have
an over of nine and a half. It's just it's
just too much faith in this team right now, so
they feel like an easy But at the same time,
me and Chat won't be shocked if they win this division.
They clearly have the best offense in this division, so
wouldn't be shocked by it, but would be shocked if
(26:09):
their defense were able to get them wins. It just
feels like, once again it's all falling off Kirk Cousins,
which we've seen before usually doesn't end well for his teams.
Speaker 1 (26:18):
Yeah, Simon mentioned it's thirty to one to win the
Super Bowl, minus one twenty to win the division. Nine
and a half is the season win total. None of
that is attractive right there. There's so many question marks
with this team. It's why. Honestly, it's why Carolina looks
so much more interesting because you can so clearly see
(26:40):
the upside in the opportunity. Atlanta, Like, it just feels
like you're not getting any value anything.
Speaker 2 (26:48):
Yeah, it feels like it's all built into the max level.
It's like it's just been totally bet out, priced out.
Speaker 1 (26:54):
Yeah, that's exactly what it is. Like, It's just it's
exactly where it should be. They're the most nondescript team
the whole division, right, Like We've always talked about this,
like the NFC south of the AFC South, they just
don't have any sea any like great legacy fandom they do.
Speaker 2 (27:15):
You say this everything I told you the Colts have
it because of Peyton they do.
Speaker 1 (27:20):
I don't know, man, Like they're all sort of The
Cults are the only one only because they came from Baltimore, right, So,
like Globo at least feels familiar. There's nobody outside of
the Southeast, who's who's wearing a Jaguars logo, logo, who's
thinking about the Atlanta Falcons, Like nobody gives a shit
(27:40):
about these teams anywhere.
Speaker 2 (27:43):
Like, I mean, they had they had the Mike Vick
thing was a culture thing, right, I'll never forget you
saw those SEVENS jerseys everywhere, But that's true. I do
agree with you that, Like even when we talk about
it sometimes I yawn a little bit where it's like
the AFC South, there's brutal.
Speaker 1 (27:58):
Like Matt Ryan was the perfect quarterback for a team
like you kind of ever knew his personality. He kind
of wasn't that flashy. He just ended up having a
lot of yards in a stadium that always felt really quiet.
Quiet yardage for quiet fans. That's that's how I think
about the Atlanta Falcons, sorry to say it, Panthers.
Speaker 2 (28:17):
That was just saying that's with Matt Ryan having Roddy
White and then Julio Jones, like two.
Speaker 1 (28:22):
Airline of Panthers. Simon, they're getting ready to roar. See
what I did?
Speaker 2 (28:28):
There? Was all that all right.
Speaker 1 (28:31):
Tampa Bay Buccaneers made the playoffs last year. Baker Mayfield,
he made some money. Eighty to one to win the
Super Bowl this year plus three twenty to win the division.
Nine and a half is the win total. They also,
I mean the theme for this division is easy schedule,
mainly because they all play each other and none of
the teams had a very good record, so eleventh, easiest schedule,
(28:54):
middle of the pack, offensive line at seventeen, middle of
the pack, defensive line at twenty. Not seeing a lot
that lights my fire here.
Speaker 2 (29:03):
Yeah, my biggest issue is they've lost their offensive coordinator
who I thought did so much, I mean as much
as McVeigh did for you know, bringing back you know,
a quarterback that we left for dead. Now I'm Baker.
So now he got paired up with a perfect go
see with the best weapons he could ask for on
the outside to that offensive cordinerator has left, so now
he needs to learn another new playbook, which is gonna
(29:25):
be a lot to put on Baker. And then you
add the expectations now because he did get paid. This
is the team that did win the division last year.
It's all there like you're we're all betting on a regression, Like,
how can you not think regressions? Apple? This team? So
I owned it last year. This was a team that
I missed on in the preseason. I just I couldn't
get behind Baker. Plenty of professionals I talked to they
(29:46):
like this team. They went heavy on them Week one
against the Minnesota Vikings. I think they were like a
five point dog. They went out right and me and
Chat were both, look, any change, how about this Bucks team?
We still did. It took a little while to come around,
and by mid season we're like, this is the best
team in this division. Like this, this does feel like
there is a separation here between them at Lanta and
the Saints. And as the season went along, it was
(30:09):
like big win, I mean, one of the biggest wins
they had. They went on the road and beat the
crap out of Green Bay and it was like, wow,
like this this team can really put up some numbers
when the offense is clicking. And then even the playoffs,
I mean, say which went about the egos beating themselves,
they dominated them like they looked like they bullied them
in that whole game. And even when the Detroit Baker
(30:30):
just had an off game, right, that was the difference
in that Detroit game where Baker just didn't have it
that day. When he doesn't have it, he really does
not have it. Baker, like that was his whole rub.
Even when he was in Cleve on the Browns, they
just they complained about him being inconsistent. That's where like
they went out and made a stupid move to go
get to Shrona Watson because they just won a top
level consistency. Where're you know, Baker just had stuff to
(30:50):
work out, right. That's that's the key with Baker is
that he's never going to be that number one pick
where where we just assumed he was gonna be right, Like,
he was just so incredible come out of college and
last year we saw a glimpse of it. I mean,
even me and you talked about it. We're just like
this guy. I remember we did a film breaking him down.
He was just getting the crack picked at him. I
think he had gone zero for five passing and again
(31:13):
I'm talking about this oc. He went right back to
it the next year's they went out there, the coach
threw three straight passing plays and Baker drove him down
the field and won the game for them to obviously
win this division. So I understand why people are kind
of hesitant to bet this team now because Chad just
said they had the tenth easy schedule. They still have
the first. They still have the division winning schedule, right
(31:33):
they means they have to play the other three divisional winners.
That's that's a big deal, right, Like instead of playing
you know, the Giants or Washington, they're going to play Dallas,
and it's like that that does matter when you bring
into win totals. So I'm a little shocked the books
got them in nine and a half as well. This
this team I have grade out of eight wins. So
technically Stills really love this under but I just I'm
(31:58):
not loving it. Like there's just I just have such
faith in Mike Evans and God when it's like even
with Baker losing to his seat, it's like he has
two All pros, one Hall of Famer on the other side,
and Mike Evans, like they're all there, like they can
somehow make this work and figure it out. My issue
is I can't see that right now because we're so
early into this preseason, Like I don't know what their
(32:19):
offensive style is going to look like. I don't even know,
like there, I don't know if it was there a
right tackle or they're left tackle. Somebody's holding out right now.
If he leaves, I think it was worth right. That's
that's a huge deal to that team, Like that guy's
an All Pro at their tackle that that is a
really big deal. So I hate to do this and say,
you just don't put any action on this one right now.
(32:39):
But I wouldn't touch the win totally unless you want
to go towards younger, because that's what I'm going towards.
And I would not touch their divisional odes.
Speaker 1 (32:46):
Yeah, the nine and a half, it feels way too.
Speaker 2 (32:49):
Hot, that's what. It doesn't make sense.
Speaker 1 (32:50):
It doesn't make sense. This should be this should be
at eight.
Speaker 2 (32:53):
And a half.
Speaker 1 (32:54):
Yeah, and I agree, there's other divisions where like look
at the Colts right Ulster at eight and a half.
Obviously the divisions a little bit harder. You got the Texans, Yeah,
everyone expects to be better, to be one of the
best teams in the league. You got the Jags who
will improve. So you can see why the win total
is at eight and a half. But the Cults are
also a better team. The division odds, excuse me, are
(33:18):
pretty close to the same, and this team's at nine
and a half. It's because of the schedule and because
of the division. I don't like the reason they got
to the wins they got last year because Baker had
a stretch where he just wasn't thrown any interceptions, and like,
I don't know that we can believe in that again,
(33:40):
right and and seven.
Speaker 2 (33:41):
That's why I can't believe Vegas the saying they're like, yeah,
we think this is a ten and seven team because
you look at right now, that's juice to the under
that and they've just been getting pounded to the under
by the pros. So that's why I'm I'm right there
with Chad. It's like, I wanted to load up on this,
but I'm not gonna lie. It's it's scared me a
little bit because they have not moved that number. It's
been getting hit and they've just held the nine and
a half.
Speaker 1 (34:00):
The new offensive coordinator Dave Canalis, who was the offensive coordinator,
he's now the new head coach in Carolina, and the
new offensive.
Speaker 2 (34:09):
That's again that's another reason we didn't even talked about.
I really liked the Panthers, Like I just think this
guy was incredible with Baker last year. So thank you
for bringing that up.
Speaker 1 (34:17):
Yeah, he was great with Baker last year, and we
should have talked about that with the Panthers. But and
look that that team, like what they got rid of
with Frank Reich last year and moving on to a
new guy with a fresh approach, like it just makes sense.
The new offense coordinator for the Box is Liam Cohne,
(34:37):
who has one season as an offensive coordinator. Of course,
you shake Sean mcvay's hand and you're going to get
another opportunity to be a big coordinator or head coach.
And he was a coordinator for the Rams for one
season in twenty twenty two. But he's basically spent his
screener in college, right like he was at Kentucky last year,
and then like had been assistant coaches in Maine, you Mass,
(35:01):
Rhode Island, everything around, you know, within an hour of
my house. So a lot of questions here, A lot
of questions with the Bucks.
Speaker 2 (35:12):
Too many questions to be taken over a nine and
a half just one of the more bizarre win totals
of the season.
Speaker 1 (35:16):
Too many questions to even talk about them anymore. Let's
talk about the New Orleans Saints, who we can't stand.
Talk about a team that has just fallen off the
face of the earth, that we used to love, that
had so much personality with Sean Payton. Now you got
Dennis Allen one hundred to one to win the Super Bowl,
plus three forty to win the Division at least like
(35:37):
their win total was in line with what we thought
it should have been last year. They're at seven and
a half. But this team, like they were bad last year,
they'd gotten worse. They got the fifth easiest schedule. Not
sure it matters. Their offensive line rank thirty two, their
defensive line rank twenty four. I can recite all the
(35:57):
stats about Dennis Allen. We hate betting on is Allen.
We hate betting on Derek Carr, especially as a favorite.
I'll get into it, but do I need to, because
you're not going to tell me there's opportunity on the
New Orleans Saints.
Speaker 2 (36:13):
I'm gonna try not to obviously. You know, in this division,
like Chad just said, anything can happen, right, But all
science point to this being a dead team. It's just
a remnants of a great empire that's just slowly burning.
It's like the end of the Roman Empire. It's just
there's a couple of beautiful buildings left in there, right there,
a couple of guys left over from it, but overall
(36:34):
they're all aging out now. And even you know Alive,
who I think is one of the better receivers in football.
He doesn't move the needle, Like there's nothing he could
do to really make you kind of accompass this team.
So yeah, someone that's probably one of the last Derek
Carr believers. They didn't do a single thing in this
offseason that improved their team substantiously. Like, I just don't
(36:57):
know what they spend money on. They spend money on
a tight end quarterback, right, Like they've have all these
weird signings on this team that just don't really make
any sense. Why not try to attack improve the offensive line,
but you know that's such a huge weakness. It's just
I don't know what their ownership's doing, and they're kind
of their hands are tied because they've spent money on
such weird players and they've built this weird team where
it's like they're stuck. So you know, I got them
(37:20):
graded out seven wins, seven and a half. That means
I'm going towards the ender. That feels right, especially when
we're talking about we think the Panthers are going to
be much better than last year, like that those were
easy wins last year for some of these teams in
this division. They're not gonna have the other Panthers, right,
we think they'll be improved, so the Saints or another
team that I put a little bit of money on
them for worst record, and you can shop around. I
(37:40):
saw a couple seventeen to ones eighteen to ones on
them have the worst record, and it's just because of that.
Where again I hate the bad amount Derek Carr because
I think he got a raw deal overall in his career,
but we've seen him just be so inconsistent. Every time
he has to learn a new offense, he regresses. And
right now it's looking that way that they're going to
be installing a whole new offense. And Chad talked about
(38:01):
it like the biggest the elephant in the room is
the head coach. And I knew he was bad, right.
I think historically Evan tells us every week he is
the worst head coach in the history of NFL against
the side.
Speaker 1 (38:12):
To give you the stat, he give me the stat
in his career twenty four and forty six straight up.
That's worst among all active head coaches. In just five
years and seventy games of coaching, Allen is twenty two
games below five hundred. Here is the list of the
only coaches since two thousand and two realignment to have
(38:35):
seventy games or less under their belt and be twenty
two games below five hundred. Dennis Allen, Frick Schrmer, Hugh Jackson,
Steve Spagnolo, and Gus Bradley. He's a historically bad coach.
It just is. There's no name, one thing that Dennis
(38:56):
Allen brings to the table as a coach that would
get fans excited, that would scare teams, like, you know
you've got something when you're going against Kyle Shanahan, you
know you got something. You hit Sean mcflay, Sean McVay,
Matt with floor right, Mike Tomlin, you know you got something, all.
Speaker 2 (39:15):
Right, hit that horn, baby, let's dance.
Speaker 1 (39:18):
John Harbaugh, you know you got something. No one's thinking
I got it out of scheme Dennis Allen.
Speaker 2 (39:24):
And go listen to some of his interviews. He he
is awful at interviews, and he says things that you
just you put your hands in your your head in
your hand, You're just what is this guy even talking about?
So I'm right there with Chad, and then the big
sens that got to me was we talked about the
luck rankings and the luck wins. We kind of narrowed
in that like Tomlin, people are perceiving him as lucky,
(39:46):
and it's like, no, you kind of can see that
he's a great coach. That's why he's going over his
win total and getting more wins than people are projected
because he's Dennis Allen. That team should have had eleven
wins last year, like wrapped aheads around how crazy that is.
But it's like this man took two wins away from
this team. That's how bad he was being a head coach.
(40:07):
And you know, again their owner, there are another team.
Their ownership to me is to blame for everything that's
gone wrong with this team. Like they've totally fallen ASoP
at the wheel since they won the Super Bowl years ago.
They leaned on having a Hall of Fame quarterback and
Hall of Fame head coach, and like I said, this
is the remnants of it, Like it's just it's a
dying empire. There's like all it's just tons of trash
(40:28):
left over, Like there's just nothing left really good here.
And they feel like a classic team that's gonna be
rebuilding for five eight years until they find the next
quarterback and then kind of start building around him. It's
just it's just really bad right now. So I'm shocked
to say that, but yeah, you got to go the
under at seven and a half.
Speaker 1 (40:46):
To bring it full circle. You talked a little bit
about Derek Carr and his struggles. Derek Carr is five
hundred against the spread or worse as a favorite in
seven straight seasons since two thousand seventeen, again from Evan
Abrams forty six sixty two and three against the spread.
Since his first season in the NFL twenty fourteen, He's
(41:09):
ranked one hundred and sixty fifth of one hundred and
sixty six quarterbacks as a favorite. He's ahead of one
player who is worse as a quarterback one hundred and
sixty six out of one hundred and sixty six. But
(41:31):
we just mentioned him in this podcast as David Carr Nope,
as the definition of uninspiring, high volume yardage playing in
the in a in a quiet, quiet stadium where nobody cares.
Speaker 2 (41:50):
Matt Ryan, Matt Ryan. But this is this is why
I do defend Derek Carr. Go look at who's been
his head coach and has had coaches in his career.
He went from a Gruden to Josh McDaniels to a
freaking Dennis Allen like talk about just getting screwed in
your career with bad coaching, like all those guys. I mean,
(42:11):
you can say, well John Gruden used to be great, yeah,
twenty years ago. Like, I mean, that guy totally destroyed
that Oakland Raiders organization on his way out. So that's
the thing with Derek Carr. It's like, you know, when
he had Jack del Rio in his early years, he
was you know, if he didn't break his arm or
whatever he did break, he almost won an MVP. I mean,
like he did have flashes and early in his career,
(42:33):
but those days are long long gone. So I'm not
gonna let my emotions get the best of me, Chad,
which is hard to do. But this this is an
underteam right now, our favorite team by far. I mean
it's clear to anyone listen to the show, it's gotta
be the Panthers. It's the most value in the division.
That to me and Chad, this division seems like it's
up for grabs rather than minus one twenty, which is
what the Falcons are viewed as.
Speaker 1 (42:55):
If you're new to this show, every week we will
ask you to do something so disgusting that defies all
conventional wisdom. Welcome to it. Hold on to the handrail.
It's going to be a roller coaster. I promise you
at the end of the year, you're gonna feel so satisfied.
It's going to be great. Like Simon said, we like
(43:19):
I'm just looking at my notes here. We like the
Panthers over four and a half in this division. We
like the Panthers for a little taste eleven to one
to win the division. Everything else, it's like kind of
a past little little time bites of unders, little bites
of unders on the Falcons, on the Bucks, and on
(43:40):
the New Orleans Saints. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast
is presented by Bet three sixty five. Bet three sixty
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(44:01):
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Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. Simon and I are back.
Next episode of the Favorites is on the Action Network
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(44:44):
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(45:06):
seven at one eight hundred gambler
Welcome to The Favorites the Podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
That's right, I said, Volume Podcast Network. For those listeners
of the show longtime listeners at the show, you may
remember we were on the Volume with the Volume and
(00:31):
Colin Power first launched the show or the network in
twenty twenty one. We love being partners with the Volume.
We're partners with them for two years. I am still
and have always been on Collins Sharper Square segment on
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NFL season. We're back on the Volume Network after a
(00:57):
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so excited to be back with them and to also
be bringing back the number one sports betting show in America.
For those who are new, you are now part of
our crew. I am joined as I always am. Bye,
(01:21):
my co host, my companion, my compadre, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon, Hello.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Chat another week closer to the start of the season,
brother and listen.
Speaker 1 (01:36):
What we want to do is get to the season again.
For those who are new and haven't heard us before
because you've been tuning in to the volume. We will
go through the next six weeks every division. We will
talk about season win totals. We will talk about odds
to win the division. We will talk about odds to
win the Super Bowl. Where we think the value is
(01:57):
for every team. Once we get in the season. The
way this works, Simon and I will do a show
on Tuesday in which we break down every single game,
our leads, the games we like, the games we're interested in,
the games that we're going to do a little more
work for. On Thursday, we give everybody what will likely
be our five favorite picks that we will put into
(02:22):
our free to play one hundred thousand dollars prize pool
pick'em contest that all of you are welcome to enter.
We will announce that in the coming weeks. Once we
get closer to the season and everything is set up,
you will get to join again free to play. You
(02:43):
will have the chance to win one hundred thousand dollars
to be part of a one hundred thousand dollars prize pool.
I think last year first prize got like forty thousand dollars.
Producer Matt Mitchell can keep me honest on that. But
Simon and I put those picks in every week. So
what happens is you get to compete against me and
Simon in the contest on Sunday nights before the NFL game.
(03:06):
On Sunday night after the late games, in that seven
thirty pm Eastern window, Simon and I will do a
quick show. We will talk about our early leans for
the next week, and we will also review the heartbreak
and the triumph of how we did with our five
picks and where we stand in the contest. I'm looking
forward to all you joining us for the ride, and
(03:28):
by the way, joining the contest. Last year, we had
twelve thousand people sign up for the contest, so super
excited to run it back this year. Today, me and Simon,
we're gonna be discussing the NFC South over the next
few weeks. We're gonna have tons of guests. We're gonna
(03:48):
have Field Yates from ESPN is gonna come.
Speaker 2 (03:51):
On the show.
Speaker 1 (03:52):
Warren Sharp Sharp Football Analysis is gonna come on the show.
They're gonna help us break down some divisions, plus talent
from the Action netw work. As a reminder, the Favorites
podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five. Bet three
sixty five doesn't do ordinary. That's why you get more
boosts with them than with anyone else. Every day they
part up the odds one hundreds of bets to give
(04:12):
you a chance to win more. Bet three sixty five
boost specific markets, your winnings and even harlays, and they
don't stop there, keeping out for their biggest and best
outs with the incredible super Boost. Check out the Boost
and see why it's never ordinary at Bet three sixty five.
It must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
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(04:35):
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(05:00):
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by clicking the link in this episode description. All right,
here we go. We're gonna talk about the NFC South.
Most people would say, I don't want to talk about
this division. You got the Falcons who have Kirk Cousins
(05:22):
coming back joining the team, coming back from an Achilles tear.
You got the Saints who are middling and uninteresting. You
got the Bucks who are middling and uninteresting. You got
the Panthers, who might be one of the worst teams
in the league. But that's not how Simon and I feel.
Sometimes you got to do bad things if you want
to win bets. I will remind people nineteen of the
(05:45):
past twenty one seasons, an NFL team has gone from
worst to first in its division. The Texans did it
last year in the AFC South. The Bucks did it
last year in the NFC South. Simon Panthers. Right now,
Panthers are plus eleven hundred to win the division, two
(06:09):
fifty to one to win the Super Bowl. Their season
win total is four and a half. I will say
for this entire division, I just outlined, like what people
think about this division, that's what the markets think as well.
The Falcons Panthers, saintsan Bucks have a combined win total
of thirty that is the fewest for any division by
(06:32):
more than three wins this year. Normally we'll talk about
the teams from the top to the bottom. I feel
like we got to talk about the Panthers because we
have Sean Kerner, who is one of our best analysts,
who created the Luck Rankings, which is one of the
best metrics we follow to find advantages and opportunities and
how the market is not judging teams correctly talked about
(06:56):
on the show a couple weeks ago said the Panther
were the most unlucky team last year. We bet the
Panthers so often last year, our second place contest winner
bet him so often that he came in second place
and still has nightmares. Talk me off a ledge about
the Panthers, because you know, I love everything about them
(07:18):
right now.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
No I can't. I mean that that number is two extreme,
just because of all the hate they've gotten in sports
meeting and everything like that. And we talked the time
how much the NFL is driven by the sports media narrative,
and I, for six months, yelling from roof tops, could
not wrap my head around Bryce Young being our first
round pick. I kept saying anyone that's not you know,
(07:42):
in bed with all these agents were in bed with
Nick Sabe and Alabama. They have a second round grade
in this kid. He is five ten, five eleven on
a good day. Like that's just the reason you've never
seen it before the NFL is there's a reason, right,
It's like, can the guy see in the middle of
the field. Can he make pass over his offensive line
to the middle of the field. I mean it sounds crazy.
(08:03):
Last year he could not, like he could not and
even when he could do it, his teammates were just
letting him down consistently, Like he just did not have
the guys. And you know they've tried to address that
stuff in this draft, right, they went out and got
a rode receiver. I don't know if it's gonna be
that big of a change, but what me and Chat
are talking about is they've improved the offensive line, which
was where they needed to start. That's where they needed
to take that money from this rookie contract. You know,
(08:26):
they have all this money to spend, that's where they
invested it because they know this defense it's a two
to three year rebuild right, that defense is not gonna
be rebuilt over in it. They already had tony holes
going into last season. You know, they've traded away Brian Burns,
one of their best players by far, because they they
need to keep improving, right, they needed this team needs
a lot of things that he was not going to
(08:46):
fix all these issues out of defensively. So do me
and Chad really think the team's gonna in this division?
Most likely not, But we've seen crazier things, right, Like
we just talked about Houston, like a couple of games
bounce your ways, and a couple of teams this division,
you know they struggle towards the end of the year.
We were talking about eleven to one ticket here on
this dumb Divisionally, me and chat will able to take
(09:07):
a position in the final two weeks to either hedge
this bet or if we believe in it, which unfortunately
we probably will because we liked this Panther team. That's
gonna be the reason. So people kept asking, like, how
can you reach taking the Panthers this year when you
spent so much time last year shitting on Bryce Young?
That was different. That was really just me talking about
how I just I just knew for a fact their
(09:27):
gym didn't make that pick, and then it solely came
out that it was their owner that kind of stepped
in and made the pick on Bryce Young. So we've
kind of moved on from that point. I think last
year was really about the coaching and the players. Everyone
was just going through it and there was just nothing
left in that team, where this year they are feeling
pretty good. I mean, I've seen a couple of beer
righters talking about like there is a different vibe in
a different sense around this team and coming into the season.
(09:50):
So yeah, if you're if you're if you're like, you
know what, I don't really want to invest heavily into this team,
do We mean? Chat is not going to take the
divisional bet, but how do you not bet the over
four and a half? Like, even just talking about their
division and the fact they have a last place schedule,
I feel I really do feel like they're gonna hit
this number of people. Like they're not as bad as
you perceive. There. They beat Houston last year, a team
(10:12):
we're raving about right now. This team did beat Houston,
Like they do have guys on this team that can
make plays and they can't step up even Green Bay Packers.
I think the Packers did beat them, but Bryce Young
put up over thirty points against that Packers defense. Like
we saw moments, we saw flashes. They I just really
don't think they had the coach lastow. I don't even
know if they had the coaching this year. But I
(10:32):
know it's gonna better than what was last year. I
can guarantee you, because last year I feel like the
guys totally quit on the guys who are running that team.
Or this year, I just don't get that sense at all.
So yeah, like I'm telling you, of all the lowest
win total teams, a lot of the guys I get
the under Like I took Tennessee's under, which I usually don't.
On totals that low, you have to tick the over
this one. I got this one model at six wins.
(10:54):
That's a game and a half of value right here.
Like that, that's a nice wide range of value here.
That factors in what we talked about with Sean, the
bad luck right that they had last year. We got
to see some of that even out right. It's just
probability we're playing here, So I know, hold your nose, people,
it's a gross one, but divisional odds at this number,
(11:15):
you got to take it. Over four and a half wins,
you got to take it. Super Bowl odds. Don't waste
your money. Do not waste your money in the Super
Bowl adds. There's no chance. I don't care how big
of a step Bright Young takes. I just I have
them so far behind as a team, just because again
I told you they're rebuilding that defense. So divisional win total,
that's where you're gonna get the best bang for your buck.
Speaker 1 (11:37):
Yeah, the strength of their schedule is tenth easiest. Again,
things that that we look at for those who are
new to the show, we talk a lot about offensive
and defensive line is how we're trying to find value
because when the market is creating numbers, whether it's odds
to win the Super Bowl or season win totals or
(11:59):
even during the season favorites, underdogs, etc. A lot of
times it doesn't account for offensive and defensive line. The
reason why professional betters spend the preseason watching every snap
of the game is because they want to know in
Week five, if the backup guard is playing, what kind
(12:22):
of impact is going is that going to have on
the game? And the team. What happens from the inside
out is so important for betting generally. So we will
look at strength of schedule and that is based on
the aggregate season win total number for the teams that
the team we are talking about is playing for the
upcoming season, in this case twenty twenty four. We will
(12:44):
look at the offensive line rank according to Pro Football Focus,
which I love their offensive line ranks and how they
great players and their defensive line rank so again, according
to Pro Football Focus, strength to schedule for Carolina tenth
easiest this year, again speaks to the power of betting.
The over four and a half offensive line rank twenty
(13:05):
and that is with big investments in free agency Damian
Lewis and Robert Hunt, who was a very highly rated
offensive lineman according to Pro Football Focus, and like you said,
they traded away Brian Burns, one of the best ed
rushers in the league. Their defensive line rank is twenty nine.
They're basically starting from scratch with this unit. But as
(13:27):
I said, betting means doing bad things right, and so
let me give you some stats about how disgusting it
is that we are spending as much time as we
are talking about the Carolina Panthers, who we love so much.
We love going back to last year because they were
so undervalued in the market. Carolina Panthers have the longest
(13:52):
Super Bowl odds of any team entering this season, at
two hundred and fifty to one, So the first time
since two thousand and five two thousand and six San
Francisco forty nine ers that a team that picked number
one in the NFL Draft. So last season they picked
number one Bryce Young and had the worst Super Bowl
odds the following season, So nobody thinks they got any better,
(14:13):
and there's reasons for that, right. They haven't covered a
spread in which they were favored since twenty twenty one,
almost three full seasons. Last year, they averaged just four
point one yards per offensive play. That was the year
worst mark for any team since the Bengals in two
thousand and eight. Their four point one yards per offensive
(14:34):
play was the third lowest for any team since nineteen ninety,
almost thirty five years. They didn't snap a ball last
year while leading in the fourth quarter of a single game,
the first time that's happened in the wild Card era
again since nineteen ninety. Are you ready for me to
(14:58):
tell you the good news, sigmon, Yes, because right now
it feels like, how can we be telling anybody how
much we love the Carolina Panthers, And by the way,
we do love them at eleven to one, we do
love the over four and a half one more for you,
How bad was Bryce Young? Last year? You're supposed to
(15:21):
ask me how bad was?
Speaker 2 (15:22):
How bad was?
Speaker 1 (15:23):
Only three quarterbacks in NFL history have had eleven past
touchdowns or less, ten interceptions or more, and less than
sixty percent completion percentage with fifty plus secks. Bryce Young,
Blake Bortles, David Carr, You've just been bortled? Do you
(15:48):
or do you not feel less confident thinking about all
this and then picturing Bryce Young walking into camp with
a backpack that made him look like he was entering
his first day of kindergarten.
Speaker 2 (16:06):
But again it goes back to how stupid football is?
You just talk about Blake Bortles. I mean, three years
later he almost beat Tom Brady, almost played the Eagles
in the Super Bowl, and then two years after that
he was out of the league. So it is a
crazy sport where these guys just they can find it
in the right for a couple of years and then
it's just gone. And I don't think any of us
(16:27):
sitting here will be shocked if Bryce Young is out
of the league in four or five years, or you know,
if he does somehow get a next contract. But it's just,
you know, we talk all the time about the butterfly
effect in this league, and Lovey Smith didn't quit on
his team in Houston, made them play it out. They
somehow fought tooth and nail got the second pick overall,
(16:48):
which gave Carolina the chance to trade up to Chicago
to get their number one pick. And what they do.
They took Bryce Seawan Houston, who did all the right things,
didn't try to tank. They got their guys CG number two.
And it's just how it is a football. It's like
those bizarre things. They're all connected. And now the following year,
instead of you guys having the twenty fifth pick or
(17:08):
twenty fourth pick, what Houston's picking now, which is what
Carolina's pick probably would have been, because again they would
add CJ and probably would have won their division and
been a playoff team. You guys had the number one pick,
and you got a generational talent in Chicago. So we
talk all the time, but all these different things that
are connected, and that's how I feel with Carolina. It's
like last year couldn't have got any worse. It was
(17:30):
all so negative, and they put him in such a
position to fail. I mean, their best receiver. If you
go look at it, it was adding feeling and this
guy is like a day away from retiring. That's how
bad of a team they were. This guy was able
to be by far their best offensive weapon. It's just
not going to be that way this year. I just
do have faith that Bryce Young was all on its
head last year and this year they feel free and loose.
(17:51):
And again the b Raiders are saying they've looked better
so far since the camps have started. So that's what
me and Chat are playing putting faith in, is that
they just had the season from hell, had crazy bad luck.
Now they've added pieces at this team. Again, we're not
talking super Bowl here, but can they get to six
seven wins? I think they can. Could they shock the
arn and get to nine and eight and somehow win
(18:12):
this division like Tampa did last year. I think things
could break that way. But it's also again we're about
to go through these other teams here. All these other teams,
they have their own wards here. So that's why this
division to me feels like it's wide open rather than
you know, eleven to one chat to win this division.
That just feels so extreme.
Speaker 1 (18:27):
Yeah, I think that's why we're convincing ourselves here.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
We are.
Speaker 1 (18:32):
I think there's three things in play. Number one, how
badly they did last year. Things things can't go that
badly again, It's almost statistically impossible. Everybody in betting is
always going to bet the balance back right, We're buying
at the lowest part of the market for the Carolina
(18:54):
Panthers across multiple markets, especially when it comes to season
win totals at four and a half and to win
the division at eleven to one. We like the fact
that they were so incredibly unlucky last season, as Kerner
pointed out Sean Kerner, the unluckiest team in the NFL
per Our Luck rankings. Let me give you a couple
(19:15):
of stats from one of our other brilliant analysts. You
can listen to them on the Action Network podcast, Chris
Raibam win totals. These are going to make us feel better.
Win totals for teams that won four or fewer games
in the prior season are a fifty eight percent to
(19:36):
the Over the past twenty two years, win totals for
teams that won four or fewer games in the prior
season and then hired a new head coach fifty nine
percent the last twenty years. Win totals for teams with
first time head coaches to the over our fifty seven
percent since two thousand and two. Win totals for teams
(19:57):
that won four fewer games in the prior season and
nan hired a first time head coach sixty seven percent
since two thousand and two. So I like that we
are betting on them to go over because all of
the trends say they will do better from whether it's luck,
(20:22):
whether it's bottom of the market, whether it's the season
win total. Betting data that we have from the past
twenty years. Love it Panthers eleven to one. Panther's over
four and a half. If nobody takes anything else from
this show, that's what they have to take. But look,
(20:44):
Atlanta is also a really intriguing team, and Atlanta has,
according to their opponents' win totals, the easiest schedule in
the NFL. They have one of the best offensive lines
top ten ranked offensive line number eight, Drew Dollmond their
center one of Pro football focused highest rated run blocking centers,
(21:04):
and Chris lichtrom highest rated overall guard, great offensive line.
Defensive line ranked twenty eighth. They last had a player
with ten sacks in twenty sixteen, Vic Beasley. Since twenty
seventeen is the only team in the NFL without a
ten sack season by any player. The key here is
(21:25):
is Kirk Cousins. Does he come back from the Achilles
injury or not?
Speaker 2 (21:30):
Yeah? And I thought he wasn't going to come back
this soon. Like I made a bet on Penix. I
think it was eighty to one or seventy five to
one to be Rookie of the Year. It was simply
taking a position of Okay, say this kid, Penick starts
weeks one through three and they're three and oh, or
they're two and one and he's playing. Well, do you
think they really put Kirk in over this kid. I
(21:50):
don't think they do. It's a business at the end
of the day, and the business plan is find the
rookie contract right. And their view of it was I
talked about it last year. They tried moving to get
a quarterback last year and it just did not work
out right, so they rolled with it, and they realized quickly,
we've just wasted entire season of this organization. And their
owner is one of the older owners in the league,
(22:12):
and I think he came down to them said listen,
I just want a quarterbacks that can trust him. Go
get me Kirk. They go get Kirk, and then they
watch Pennix's film, they fall in love with him. I mean,
I was shocked by a Chad was shocked. I think
Johnny Manziel is the only person in the world not
shocked by him going at number eight, which is the truth.
Like I had a high grade in the kid, but
he does have some wards. But it's like Chad just
talked about, you give him a great offensive line of weapons,
(22:35):
Pennix is gonna thrive. Like that's the perfect setup for
this kid. And you know, Kirk, we're gonna see because
Kirk is an Aaron Rodgers. He's never been Aaron Rodgers.
Even at Kirk's best right, We've always viewed him as
a top twelve, top fifteen guy because he has these
moments where he's the top eight guy, but then the
next game, he's just back to the old Kirk right,
(22:55):
back to tons of turnovers. They're just making bonehead plays.
And that's the issue with Kirk Cousins. He's just he's
never been consistent his whole career. And you know, he's
done great, He's done really well, right, a couple ten
win seasons. Him and the Vikings had that incredible run
where they won their division and me and Chap were
just like, this team are frauds, right, and that Giants
sure enough went it to Minnesota, they beat them in
(23:17):
the playoffs. And that's kind of how I feel about Kirk,
where it's like, you know, if I won ten wins
healthy Kirk, if I got offensive weapons around him, he's
gonna get me to ten wins. Like That's why it's
hard to bad mouth Kirk, because he has been so
much better than all these other guys. But we don't
know we're getting right now. I read the other day
but a beat right talking about how he's still not
(23:38):
pushing off that foot, right, he's still doing quick throws.
He's not really cranking out the hard throws out to
the outs, right, He's not putting all his weight into
and throwing deep balls. Yet it's like he's really being
careful and tender with Aaron Rodgers. I just watched him
in the Jets practice. He's got no restrictions. He's all
over the place, moving, throwing on the run, putting all
his weight onto it, stepping into it. He's got no
(24:00):
worries right now with that Achilles. So that's that's the
caution tail here is you are betting a minus twenty
favorite divisional bet right now on a team with a
guy that we are so unsure of in a defense
that I think they're a bottom twenty five, bottom of
twenty seven, you know, defense, Like they're they're really projected
low in my model. So offensively, I get why people
(24:22):
are so enamored with this team. It's just they have,
you know, a top three running back and Drake Lynn
on the outside is a great receiver. And Kyle Pitts,
we know he's a great tight end. He's just never
had a quarterback get him the ball. And what is
Kirk Cousins love. He loves a good tight end. So
like you should see growth there. But it's like there's
so many questions here where I mean, we've had guests
on We're like yeah, the Land is a slam duncan.
(24:44):
It's like, how can you feel that way about this team?
Like they do have so many questions in a division
we talk all the time is really wonky. And Chad
said they have the easiest schedule. They hit the second
easiest schedule a off football. Last year the Saints had
number one. Neither of them made the playoffs Tampa, but
we this is left for dead. They were the team
that took care of their easy schedule and we were
able to make the playoff runs. So that's my issue
(25:06):
with Atlanta is be cautious. People thirty to one super
Bowl odds. You are crazy if you're betting them thirty
to one to win Super Bowl. I mean, that's that's insane.
Like they should be like the Jaguars, they should be
fifty to one. But maybe they don't have that that
low of jit just because people are like, well, if
they won the division, they'll be the fourth seed, they'll
get a home game. It's just is there a home
(25:26):
field advantage to Atlanta? I don't know, it's been so
long since they've had any type of really big fan base.
I mean even that Matt Ryan run I guess the
last time, I guess is twenty sixteen. It was when
the last time they really liked that, So just be
careful people. They're a team I've taken their under I
haven't projected nine to eight again half a game, not
putting that much money on it. But it's like, yeah,
(25:48):
they to me have too many questions to be a
team that's minus won twenty for this division and have
an over of nine and a half. It's just it's
just too much faith in this team right now, so
they feel like an easy But at the same time,
me and Chat won't be shocked if they win this division.
They clearly have the best offense in this division, so
wouldn't be shocked by it, but would be shocked if
(26:09):
their defense were able to get them wins. It just
feels like, once again it's all falling off Kirk Cousins,
which we've seen before usually doesn't end well for his teams.
Speaker 1 (26:18):
Yeah, Simon mentioned it's thirty to one to win the
Super Bowl, minus one twenty to win the division. Nine
and a half is the season win total. None of
that is attractive right there. There's so many question marks
with this team. It's why. Honestly, it's why Carolina looks
so much more interesting because you can so clearly see
(26:40):
the upside in the opportunity. Atlanta, Like, it just feels
like you're not getting any value anything.
Speaker 2 (26:48):
Yeah, it feels like it's all built into the max level.
It's like it's just been totally bet out, priced out.
Speaker 1 (26:54):
Yeah, that's exactly what it is. Like, It's just it's
exactly where it should be. They're the most nondescript team
the whole division, right, Like We've always talked about this,
like the NFC south of the AFC South, they just
don't have any sea any like great legacy fandom they do.
Speaker 2 (27:15):
You say this everything I told you the Colts have
it because of Peyton they do.
Speaker 1 (27:20):
I don't know, man, Like they're all sort of The
Cults are the only one only because they came from Baltimore, right, So,
like Globo at least feels familiar. There's nobody outside of
the Southeast, who's who's wearing a Jaguars logo, logo, who's
thinking about the Atlanta Falcons, Like nobody gives a shit
(27:40):
about these teams anywhere.
Speaker 2 (27:43):
Like, I mean, they had they had the Mike Vick
thing was a culture thing, right, I'll never forget you
saw those SEVENS jerseys everywhere, But that's true. I do
agree with you that, Like even when we talk about
it sometimes I yawn a little bit where it's like
the AFC South, there's brutal.
Speaker 1 (27:58):
Like Matt Ryan was the perfect quarterback for a team
like you kind of ever knew his personality. He kind
of wasn't that flashy. He just ended up having a
lot of yards in a stadium that always felt really quiet.
Quiet yardage for quiet fans. That's that's how I think
about the Atlanta Falcons, sorry to say it, Panthers.
Speaker 2 (28:17):
That was just saying that's with Matt Ryan having Roddy
White and then Julio Jones, like two.
Speaker 1 (28:22):
Airline of Panthers. Simon, they're getting ready to roar. See
what I did?
Speaker 2 (28:28):
There? Was all that all right.
Speaker 1 (28:31):
Tampa Bay Buccaneers made the playoffs last year. Baker Mayfield,
he made some money. Eighty to one to win the
Super Bowl this year plus three twenty to win the division.
Nine and a half is the win total. They also,
I mean the theme for this division is easy schedule,
mainly because they all play each other and none of
the teams had a very good record, so eleventh, easiest schedule,
(28:54):
middle of the pack, offensive line at seventeen, middle of
the pack, defensive line at twenty. Not seeing a lot
that lights my fire here.
Speaker 2 (29:03):
Yeah, my biggest issue is they've lost their offensive coordinator
who I thought did so much, I mean as much
as McVeigh did for you know, bringing back you know,
a quarterback that we left for dead. Now I'm Baker.
So now he got paired up with a perfect go
see with the best weapons he could ask for on
the outside to that offensive cordinerator has left, so now
he needs to learn another new playbook, which is gonna
(29:25):
be a lot to put on Baker. And then you
add the expectations now because he did get paid. This
is the team that did win the division last year.
It's all there like you're we're all betting on a regression, Like,
how can you not think regressions? Apple? This team? So
I owned it last year. This was a team that
I missed on in the preseason. I just I couldn't
get behind Baker. Plenty of professionals I talked to they
(29:46):
like this team. They went heavy on them Week one
against the Minnesota Vikings. I think they were like a
five point dog. They went out right and me and
Chat were both, look, any change, how about this Bucks team?
We still did. It took a little while to come around,
and by mid season we're like, this is the best
team in this division. Like this, this does feel like
there is a separation here between them at Lanta and
the Saints. And as the season went along, it was
(30:09):
like big win, I mean, one of the biggest wins
they had. They went on the road and beat the
crap out of Green Bay and it was like, wow,
like this this team can really put up some numbers
when the offense is clicking. And then even the playoffs,
I mean, say which went about the egos beating themselves,
they dominated them like they looked like they bullied them
in that whole game. And even when the Detroit Baker
(30:30):
just had an off game, right, that was the difference
in that Detroit game where Baker just didn't have it
that day. When he doesn't have it, he really does
not have it. Baker, like that was his whole rub.
Even when he was in Cleve on the Browns, they
just they complained about him being inconsistent. That's where like
they went out and made a stupid move to go
get to Shrona Watson because they just won a top
level consistency. Where're you know, Baker just had stuff to
(30:50):
work out, right. That's that's the key with Baker is
that he's never going to be that number one pick
where where we just assumed he was gonna be right, Like,
he was just so incredible come out of college and
last year we saw a glimpse of it. I mean,
even me and you talked about it. We're just like
this guy. I remember we did a film breaking him down.
He was just getting the crack picked at him. I
think he had gone zero for five passing and again
(31:13):
I'm talking about this oc. He went right back to
it the next year's they went out there, the coach
threw three straight passing plays and Baker drove him down
the field and won the game for them to obviously
win this division. So I understand why people are kind
of hesitant to bet this team now because Chad just
said they had the tenth easy schedule. They still have
the first. They still have the division winning schedule, right
(31:33):
they means they have to play the other three divisional winners.
That's that's a big deal, right, Like instead of playing
you know, the Giants or Washington, they're going to play Dallas,
and it's like that that does matter when you bring
into win totals. So I'm a little shocked the books
got them in nine and a half as well. This
this team I have grade out of eight wins. So
technically Stills really love this under but I just I'm
(31:58):
not loving it. Like there's just I just have such
faith in Mike Evans and God when it's like even
with Baker losing to his seat, it's like he has
two All pros, one Hall of Famer on the other side,
and Mike Evans, like they're all there, like they can
somehow make this work and figure it out. My issue
is I can't see that right now because we're so
early into this preseason, Like I don't know what their
(32:19):
offensive style is going to look like. I don't even know,
like there, I don't know if it was there a
right tackle or they're left tackle. Somebody's holding out right now.
If he leaves, I think it was worth right. That's
that's a huge deal to that team, Like that guy's
an All Pro at their tackle that that is a
really big deal. So I hate to do this and say,
you just don't put any action on this one right now.
(32:39):
But I wouldn't touch the win totally unless you want
to go towards younger, because that's what I'm going towards.
And I would not touch their divisional odes.
Speaker 1 (32:46):
Yeah, the nine and a half, it feels way too.
Speaker 2 (32:49):
Hot, that's what. It doesn't make sense.
Speaker 1 (32:50):
It doesn't make sense. This should be this should be
at eight.
Speaker 2 (32:53):
And a half.
Speaker 1 (32:54):
Yeah, and I agree, there's other divisions where like look
at the Colts right Ulster at eight and a half.
Obviously the divisions a little bit harder. You got the Texans, Yeah,
everyone expects to be better, to be one of the
best teams in the league. You got the Jags who
will improve. So you can see why the win total
is at eight and a half. But the Cults are
also a better team. The division odds, excuse me, are
(33:18):
pretty close to the same, and this team's at nine
and a half. It's because of the schedule and because
of the division. I don't like the reason they got
to the wins they got last year because Baker had
a stretch where he just wasn't thrown any interceptions, and like,
I don't know that we can believe in that again,
(33:40):
right and and seven.
Speaker 2 (33:41):
That's why I can't believe Vegas the saying they're like, yeah,
we think this is a ten and seven team because
you look at right now, that's juice to the under
that and they've just been getting pounded to the under
by the pros. So that's why I'm I'm right there
with Chad. It's like, I wanted to load up on this,
but I'm not gonna lie. It's it's scared me a
little bit because they have not moved that number. It's
been getting hit and they've just held the nine and
a half.
Speaker 1 (34:00):
The new offensive coordinator Dave Canalis, who was the offensive coordinator,
he's now the new head coach in Carolina, and the
new offensive.
Speaker 2 (34:09):
That's again that's another reason we didn't even talked about.
I really liked the Panthers, Like I just think this
guy was incredible with Baker last year. So thank you
for bringing that up.
Speaker 1 (34:17):
Yeah, he was great with Baker last year, and we
should have talked about that with the Panthers. But and
look that that team, like what they got rid of
with Frank Reich last year and moving on to a
new guy with a fresh approach, like it just makes sense.
The new offense coordinator for the Box is Liam Cohne,
(34:37):
who has one season as an offensive coordinator. Of course,
you shake Sean mcvay's hand and you're going to get
another opportunity to be a big coordinator or head coach.
And he was a coordinator for the Rams for one
season in twenty twenty two. But he's basically spent his
screener in college, right like he was at Kentucky last year,
and then like had been assistant coaches in Maine, you Mass,
(35:01):
Rhode Island, everything around, you know, within an hour of
my house. So a lot of questions here, A lot
of questions with the Bucks.
Speaker 2 (35:12):
Too many questions to be taken over a nine and
a half just one of the more bizarre win totals
of the season.
Speaker 1 (35:16):
Too many questions to even talk about them anymore. Let's
talk about the New Orleans Saints, who we can't stand.
Talk about a team that has just fallen off the
face of the earth, that we used to love, that
had so much personality with Sean Payton. Now you got
Dennis Allen one hundred to one to win the Super Bowl,
plus three forty to win the Division at least like
(35:37):
their win total was in line with what we thought
it should have been last year. They're at seven and
a half. But this team, like they were bad last year,
they'd gotten worse. They got the fifth easiest schedule. Not
sure it matters. Their offensive line rank thirty two, their
defensive line rank twenty four. I can recite all the
(35:57):
stats about Dennis Allen. We hate betting on is Allen.
We hate betting on Derek Carr, especially as a favorite.
I'll get into it, but do I need to, because
you're not going to tell me there's opportunity on the
New Orleans Saints.
Speaker 2 (36:13):
I'm gonna try not to obviously. You know, in this division,
like Chad just said, anything can happen, right, But all
science point to this being a dead team. It's just
a remnants of a great empire that's just slowly burning.
It's like the end of the Roman Empire. It's just
there's a couple of beautiful buildings left in there, right there,
a couple of guys left over from it, but overall
(36:34):
they're all aging out now. And even you know Alive,
who I think is one of the better receivers in football.
He doesn't move the needle, Like there's nothing he could
do to really make you kind of accompass this team.
So yeah, someone that's probably one of the last Derek
Carr believers. They didn't do a single thing in this
offseason that improved their team substantiously. Like, I just don't
(36:57):
know what they spend money on. They spend money on
a tight end quarterback, right, Like they've have all these
weird signings on this team that just don't really make
any sense. Why not try to attack improve the offensive line,
but you know that's such a huge weakness. It's just
I don't know what their ownership's doing, and they're kind
of their hands are tied because they've spent money on
such weird players and they've built this weird team where
it's like they're stuck. So you know, I got them
(37:20):
graded out seven wins, seven and a half. That means
I'm going towards the ender. That feels right, especially when
we're talking about we think the Panthers are going to
be much better than last year, like that those were
easy wins last year for some of these teams in
this division. They're not gonna have the other Panthers, right,
we think they'll be improved, so the Saints or another
team that I put a little bit of money on
them for worst record, and you can shop around. I
(37:40):
saw a couple seventeen to ones eighteen to ones on
them have the worst record, and it's just because of that.
Where again I hate the bad amount Derek Carr because
I think he got a raw deal overall in his career,
but we've seen him just be so inconsistent. Every time
he has to learn a new offense, he regresses. And
right now it's looking that way that they're going to
be installing a whole new offense. And Chad talked about
(38:01):
it like the biggest the elephant in the room is
the head coach. And I knew he was bad, right.
I think historically Evan tells us every week he is
the worst head coach in the history of NFL against
the side.
Speaker 1 (38:12):
To give you the stat, he give me the stat
in his career twenty four and forty six straight up.
That's worst among all active head coaches. In just five
years and seventy games of coaching, Allen is twenty two
games below five hundred. Here is the list of the
only coaches since two thousand and two realignment to have
(38:35):
seventy games or less under their belt and be twenty
two games below five hundred. Dennis Allen, Frick Schrmer, Hugh Jackson,
Steve Spagnolo, and Gus Bradley. He's a historically bad coach.
It just is. There's no name, one thing that Dennis
(38:56):
Allen brings to the table as a coach that would
get fans excited, that would scare teams, like, you know
you've got something when you're going against Kyle Shanahan, you
know you got something. You hit Sean mcflay, Sean McVay,
Matt with floor right, Mike Tomlin, you know you got something, all.
Speaker 2 (39:15):
Right, hit that horn, baby, let's dance.
Speaker 1 (39:18):
John Harbaugh, you know you got something. No one's thinking
I got it out of scheme Dennis Allen.
Speaker 2 (39:24):
And go listen to some of his interviews. He he
is awful at interviews, and he says things that you
just you put your hands in your your head in
your hand, You're just what is this guy even talking about?
So I'm right there with Chad, and then the big
sens that got to me was we talked about the
luck rankings and the luck wins. We kind of narrowed
in that like Tomlin, people are perceiving him as lucky,
(39:46):
and it's like, no, you kind of can see that
he's a great coach. That's why he's going over his
win total and getting more wins than people are projected
because he's Dennis Allen. That team should have had eleven
wins last year, like wrapped aheads around how crazy that is.
But it's like this man took two wins away from
this team. That's how bad he was being a head coach.
(40:07):
And you know, again their owner, there are another team.
Their ownership to me is to blame for everything that's
gone wrong with this team. Like they've totally fallen ASoP
at the wheel since they won the Super Bowl years ago.
They leaned on having a Hall of Fame quarterback and
Hall of Fame head coach, and like I said, this
is the remnants of it, Like it's just it's a
dying empire. There's like all it's just tons of trash
(40:28):
left over, Like there's just nothing left really good here.
And they feel like a classic team that's gonna be
rebuilding for five eight years until they find the next
quarterback and then kind of start building around him. It's
just it's just really bad right now. So I'm shocked
to say that, but yeah, you got to go the
under at seven and a half.
Speaker 1 (40:46):
To bring it full circle. You talked a little bit
about Derek Carr and his struggles. Derek Carr is five
hundred against the spread or worse as a favorite in
seven straight seasons since two thousand seventeen, again from Evan
Abrams forty six sixty two and three against the spread.
Since his first season in the NFL twenty fourteen, He's
(41:09):
ranked one hundred and sixty fifth of one hundred and
sixty six quarterbacks as a favorite. He's ahead of one
player who is worse as a quarterback one hundred and
sixty six out of one hundred and sixty six. But
(41:31):
we just mentioned him in this podcast as David Carr Nope,
as the definition of uninspiring, high volume yardage playing in
the in a in a quiet, quiet stadium where nobody cares.
Speaker 2 (41:50):
Matt Ryan, Matt Ryan. But this is this is why
I do defend Derek Carr. Go look at who's been
his head coach and has had coaches in his career.
He went from a Gruden to Josh McDaniels to a
freaking Dennis Allen like talk about just getting screwed in
your career with bad coaching, like all those guys. I mean,
(42:11):
you can say, well John Gruden used to be great, yeah,
twenty years ago. Like, I mean, that guy totally destroyed
that Oakland Raiders organization on his way out. So that's
the thing with Derek Carr. It's like, you know, when
he had Jack del Rio in his early years, he
was you know, if he didn't break his arm or
whatever he did break, he almost won an MVP. I mean,
like he did have flashes and early in his career,
(42:33):
but those days are long long gone. So I'm not
gonna let my emotions get the best of me, Chad,
which is hard to do. But this this is an
underteam right now, our favorite team by far. I mean
it's clear to anyone listen to the show, it's gotta
be the Panthers. It's the most value in the division.
That to me and Chad, this division seems like it's
up for grabs rather than minus one twenty, which is
what the Falcons are viewed as.
Speaker 1 (42:55):
If you're new to this show, every week we will
ask you to do something so disgusting that defies all
conventional wisdom. Welcome to it. Hold on to the handrail.
It's going to be a roller coaster. I promise you
at the end of the year, you're gonna feel so satisfied.
It's going to be great. Like Simon said, we like
(43:19):
I'm just looking at my notes here. We like the
Panthers over four and a half in this division. We
like the Panthers for a little taste eleven to one
to win the division. Everything else, it's like kind of
a past little little time bites of unders, little bites
of unders on the Falcons, on the Bucks, and on
(43:40):
the New Orleans Saints. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast
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Next episode of the Favorites is on the Action Network
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