The Favorites - AFC North Betting Preview with Warren Sharp

Can Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens get over the hump? Can the Cleveland Browns overcome mediocre quarterback play? Can Joe Burrow get the Bengals off to a hot start? Are the Steelers cooked?
As the NFL regular season approaches, Action Network NFL experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to talk all things AFC North. Today they welcome back Warren Sharp, the impresario of Sharp Football Analysis and one of our favorite returning guests. He is creator of the 2024 Sharp Football Analysis NFL Preview, his popular annual football tome. Use promo code ACTION to receive 50%, available now. 
Together this trio talk about all four teams in the AFC North, and dive deep into who has the rest advantage, schedule edge and so much more. #Volume #Herd

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by a Bet
three sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
I'm joined as always buy my cost, my companion, Michel Padre,
my BFF professional Better, Simon Hunter. Hello, so I'm in.

Speaker 2 (00:30):
Hello Chad. Did you enjoy your hard knocks?

Speaker 3 (00:32):
Oh?

Speaker 1 (00:33):
My god? Let me Ticele and Simon tell me. I
got home from I was in New York City yesterday, Manhattan.
I was in the Action Network offices and I got
home ten after nine. My son was there. He was
waiting that it was already teed up.

Speaker 2 (00:51):
It must be nice to be loved by someone.

Speaker 1 (00:53):
We were so ready and I loved it. I loved
every second of it. I love. The intro of Chicago
felt so nostalgic for me, especially because my son and
I had just been in Chicago the week before with
my dad and we had gone to half the places
that are sort of in the intro when they are
showing the beauty shots of Chicago when it was great.

(01:15):
So I thought it was magnificent. I thought it was
great the way they showed Kayleb Williams struggling. I like
the way he presented himself. I'm not sold on Abriflus yet.
You know, I feel like this could be the one
and done, and I'm curious to see how they portray
his relationship with Kayleb Williams. They already tried to set
it up as something that needs to be special. I

(01:38):
know this is stupid. At one point, when they were
in the locker room and they showed the players sort
of in their uniforms, I said to my kid, I
just love those uniforms. Just seeing the Bears, those white pants,
those Navy jerseys.

Speaker 4 (01:53):
I just they're like Green Bay, right. They have never
they have never changed, or have they changed since.

Speaker 1 (01:59):
I mean they have the throwback where they had like
these wolverine style helmets from the nineteen twenties and stuff.
But it's been a c with Navy jerseys in white
pants forever.

Speaker 2 (02:11):
It's perfect.

Speaker 1 (02:13):
Thank you for asking. I loved it. Loved it. Also.
You know what I love. I love the fact we're
doing these division previews. And for today's fourth installment in
our annual NFL Division preview series, we discussed the AFC North.
We are joined by a very special returning guest. He's

(02:35):
an NFL expert, and he is fresh off the release
of his five hundred and fifty nine page Sharp Football
Analysis twenty twenty four NFL preview available now. I have
been reading it. I have been tearing pages out and
circling things. The strength of schedule kings that we use

(03:01):
in the podcast for our division previews are all from
his book. It is Warren Sharp.

Speaker 3 (03:11):
Anybody, Thank you, Chad.

Speaker 1 (03:14):
I'm glad you're back. We got a lot to discuss
the AFC North best division in football, rest, which you
have done a phenomenal job the past few years. We've
had you on the podcast talking about this determining rest
as a factor in the schedule and how it can

(03:34):
be advantageous or disadvantageous to teams based on when they
are getting teams off of buys, when they are getting
teams off of short weeks, and the same is true
for them off of buys, off of short weeks, etc.
It's becoming more and more complicated with the expanded schedule.
A lot of teams have an advantage or a lot
of teams have a disadvantage, including teams in this division.
We're going to get to all that, plus our breakdown

(03:57):
of where the value is in the division. As a reminder,
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one eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off

(04:38):
in Iowa terms. Condition restrictions apply. Reminder every division in
nineteen in the past twenty one years, an NFL team
has gone from worst to first in its division. I'm
telling you right now that status extra relevant in the
AFC North because the Ravens were in first place last year.

(05:01):
The Cincinnati Bengals were in the last place. All right,
let's start with the Ravens.

Speaker 5 (05:08):
It's Baltimore, gentlemen, the gods will not save you.

Speaker 1 (05:12):
Ten to one win the Super Bowl plus one forty
to win the Division. Ten and a half is a
season win total schedule fourth hardest according to season win
totals aggregated and then checked by Warren Sharp Again, we
look at oline and D line. That is a key
indicator for us on the quality of a team. O
line rank twenty fifth, not great, D line and uninspiring twelfth.

(05:40):
Warren as a mid Atlantic coaster, I will see the
floor to you. Thoughts on the Ravens.

Speaker 6 (05:51):
Well, I can't start, you know, by reading the chapter
on the Ravens. I can't start talking about the twenty
twenty four Ravens before acknowledging how that offense change in
twenty twenty three, kicking Greg Roman out of there, bring
in a far more modern style of offense, and what
that did to help the Baltimore Ravens. And obviously they
were the No More seed thirteen and four record last year.

(06:14):
It was very reminiscent of the offense that they were
utilizing in the twenty nineteen season when they first burst
onto the scene, not from the style of offense, but
from the intent, and that was to jump out and score.

Speaker 3 (06:28):
Points early in games.

Speaker 6 (06:30):
When I look back, and I wrote about this in
the book, when I look back at the opening touchdown
drive rate, how often are teams scoring touchdowns on that
opening drive In twenty twenty two, Greg Romans last year,
they were down at six percent, one of the worst
in the NFL. Last year they went all the way
up to forty two percent, which was second best in
the NFL. Their score rate of touchdowns in the first

(06:53):
quarter was one of the best in the NFL, all
the way up at twenty seven percent and improvement over
eleven percent the prior year. They were much better on
the inside of the red zone as well, and in
goal to go situations, which is shocking that Lamar Jackson
led team is not efficient down inside of the red zone,
but that's what they were during the last year of

(07:14):
Greg Roman's term. They were in the last four years
that he was there, the number one most run heavy
and the number three slowest pace team in the NFL.
Those massively changed last year. They were fifteenth in pace,
sixth in pass rate, and they used a lot more
eleven personnel, still one of the lower rates in the NFL,

(07:34):
but they had been the lowest in the NFL for
over a decade twelve percent usage of eleven personnel. That
went all the way up to forty seven percent. So
they get Derrick Henry now. And one of the things
that I think is going to be interesting about that
infusion of Derrick Henry is what do defenses do to
counter that? Because that's the way I always look at
football as what's the counter move.

Speaker 3 (07:55):
By the defense?

Speaker 6 (07:56):
Well, obviously I would think that they would try to
load box as more frequently. Well, Lamar Jackson was the
NFL's number one quarterback versus loaded boxes last season on
one hundred and fifty eight pass attempts that he faced
loaded boxes, which was a lower rate than he had faced.

Speaker 3 (08:12):
In prior years.

Speaker 6 (08:13):
Obviously because in prior years they were a run focused
off offense, so they got more loaded boxes last year
fewer loaded boxes. But he was the number one quarterback
in EPA per dropback, number one in success rate number three,
and completion rate number four yards per attempt against loaded boxes,
So that mesh point is going to be interesting to
see if they load those boxes, are they going to

(08:34):
try to get some advantage there by doing some play
action and throwing over the top of those linebackers. Where
Lamar was excellent last year, they were better in play
action under Todd Monkin last year, and that was before
having Derrick Henry as well. They also didn't really have
a lot of luck factors go in their favor. This
is something I know you guys over at Action focus
a lot on some of the luck factors, but from

(08:56):
it whether it was injury luck where they were nineteenth,
or field goal luck where they were twenty third, or
fumble luck where they were twenty first, or penalty yards
against where they were thirty first, and nothing was really
massively going their way. I'm worried about their defense a
little bit with the loss of the defensive coordinator they
promote from within. I'm worried about the change overhaul in
their offensive line where they lose Zeitler, Morgan Moses and

(09:20):
John Simpson Simpsons and Zeidler, where there are two players
that led the team in snaps along that line last year.
Both of those guys are gone. Rest is massively in
their favor. We talked about that in the podcast that
I came on a couple of months ago, so I
won't rehash all the rest elements. If you guys want
to talk about later, we can, but they're much.

Speaker 3 (09:40):
Better in rest.

Speaker 6 (09:41):
I do want to hear what you guys have to
think about Lamar Jackson's weight cut, and I'll save my
response to that for if you guys have a comment
on your end. But overall, I think the Baltimore Ravens,
because of the style of offense has been modernized so much.
They are going to have an advantage with Lamar Jackson

(10:03):
and Derek Henry back there on offense and offense dictating
things in terms of scoring quickly, dictating the flow of
the game. But I do have concerns. I don't think
they're going to be as successful as they were last year.
I've concerned along that offensive line. I've concerned with the
passing attack as well. I still don't love their wide
receiving core. I mean, Lamar Jackson still doesn't have an

(10:23):
elite wide receiving corps, never has had that. The story
is the same this upcoming season. So there's a lot
to like about this team just because of Lamar and
the new style of offense from last year, But there
are more questions this year than there were last year.
And for that reason, you know, it's hard for me.
I'm certainly not laying a future on the Ravens to

(10:44):
win this division. I think it's going to be hard
for them to repeat Simon.

Speaker 1 (10:50):
I think you and I agree, like this is not
a team that for a future we're all that interested
in right now.

Speaker 4 (10:57):
No, we were sitting here last year, were they better
Ravens team getting twenty one to one?

Speaker 2 (11:02):
Twenty to one on their Super Bowl futures?

Speaker 4 (11:03):
And now we're paying a premium because it feels like,
you know, Lamar's coming off at MVP, and people really
don't look at what we're talking about here with Warren, right,
Warren's breaking down their schedule, also breaking down the fact
that you know, it's a big deal they've lost guys
in the offensive line and you go to the defensive side.

Speaker 2 (11:19):
That's the biggest deal to me, right using it losing
their defensive coordinator to Seattle, that's a big deal.

Speaker 4 (11:24):
Like he was the perfect guy for that defense where
he knew exactly what to do with Kyle Hamilton, like
they were so in unison of him playing that Ed
Reid role of wherever he wants to go. It worked
on the defense, he was always in the right spot,
which again we don't know yet what the new defense
will look like, but I do know it's gonna be
a loss up front right now, Ivan Patrick Queen not

(11:45):
having those veteran guys along the d line, that's gonna
be a big deal. So you know, to me, this
is a team that even if Zay Flowers does take
that next step and he does become a number one
receiver for this team and a guy they can trust,
it feels like they just lost too much.

Speaker 2 (12:00):
Last year was just the year. Last year. I mean,
people don't remember because it feels so far away.

Speaker 4 (12:04):
We had no offense, Like offense will kind of died
in the NFL, especially by the time it got to
January December, it really had fallen off. This was a
team it just did not matter like this. This team
was so good until they ran into that Chiefs team.
They literally were months of just dominating offense. It was
just Lamar could get any throw he wanted, and when
they wanted to run the ball, they could get any

(12:25):
yards that like, they were picking up four or five
yards every time they carried the ball. It was just
a machine. And then we talked about that defense last year.
They were so good at playing with the league. Once
they had a lead on you, you were done. Like it
really was the perfectly set up team last year, the Ravens.
And we see it all the time in football, it's regression,
like you have the really high year, the following year,

(12:45):
you take a step back because it's a lot of
new guys, usually lose coaches, right, teams are gonna just
be different the following year. They're the perfect example of it, right,
they were just so perfect last year. That was the year,
like they had the team to take down the Chiefs.
They had everything right there. They had team to take
down the forty nine ers, and it just didn't work
out right because unfortunately, weird things happen in the playoffs.

(13:05):
They kind of lost their mind there and they had
Lamar throwing the ball forty times and that's just not
who they want to be. So I honestly don't I
don't mind what Lamar is doing with the weight, right,
if that's what he feels comfortable playing at and if
he feels quicker, and that's that's better for Lamar. More
power to him because people are like, oh, you might
get hurt now that like, no player thinks that way.
No players think themselves, Well, if I lose twenty pounds

(13:26):
or ten pounds, I'm any more subtle injury.

Speaker 2 (13:28):
That just that doesn't really cost their mind.

Speaker 4 (13:30):
I don't know if there's science backing up either, because
if there was, I think their team would be putting
pressure on him to put back on some muscles. So yeah,
their win totals ten and a half. Chat that's a
rich for this division. We already talked about ten to one.
We wouldn't pay that, and their division odds at plus
one forty. I just went touch either there's another team
we liked bed this division. So yeah, Ravens small to

(13:51):
the under for me, right, I have him at ten wins.
It's not that big of a discrepancy. At ten and
a half, I just have him half a game under
that win total. So again, they won one point fo game.
I could easily see them hitting this win total. But
to me, I would not be playing the over. It
just doesn't not feel like there's value there.

Speaker 1 (14:07):
They're a spot that team to me for this year.
John Harbaugh past twenty years one of the most profitable
coaches in the NFL, Bill Belichick, Mike McCarthy, Mike Zimmer,
Sean Payton, Murdy Schottenheimer, John Harbaugh, and then Jim Harbaugh.
But can you name, excuse me, the most profitable coach

(14:32):
week one past twenty years in the Action Network database
Sean McVeigh, John Harbaugh. If we look at just week one,
John Harbaugh is twelve and four against the spread and
has failed to cover just once in the last eight years. Reminder,

(14:55):
and I know which side we like already. Baltimore is
a field goal underdog at Kansas City in Week one.
Of course, we are taking the Ravens in Week one
against the Chiefs as three point underdogs. That's an simon.
There's no question on that. No, like there are gonna

(15:17):
be spots. Warren points out the rest John Harbaugh is
amazing on extra rest. If he's got ten or more
days to prepare. The Ravens are twenty seven or eight
straight up, two twenty thirteen and two against the spread.
Here are the four spots are gonna want to think
about betting the Ravens. In addition to Week one, they've

(15:40):
got nine days rest before Week two against the Raiders
ten before November seventeenth game against the Steelers, two weeks
before they play the Giants in mid December, and ten
days before they play the Browns in the last week
of the season. So, Warren, you talked about rest. I
know we don't love the Ravens futures, but there are
good spots here for them to think about, right, Yeah.

Speaker 6 (16:03):
Absolutely, And and a couple of points to collab on
both what you guys have been saying. That John Harbaugh
record in Week one. I wonder if part of that
is the way that he gets this team to play
in the preseason. Right they approach the preseason with a
far different intention. They're trying to win all of these games.
That competitive fire is flowing in this team year and
a year out in the preseason. Maybe that does actually

(16:26):
have an advantage considering their number one coach team in
the ATS world in your action database, So that could
be a factor there.

Speaker 3 (16:34):
Absolutely.

Speaker 6 (16:35):
With regard to the spot edges, I want to add
that I list all the spot edges in the book.
And in addition to hopefully some of the three of
you guys are going to win a free book if
you just enter the code Action you'll get fifty percent
off the book special for your listeners today. Fifty percent
off the book drops the price down to the round
fifty just over fifteen dollars. I think is a great
value for you. As it relates to their defense. One

(16:57):
of the things that I will add is this defense
played with the number two lightest boxes on average last season,
and they were basically encouraging you to run the football
against them, and their defense was terrible against the run.
They ranked number thirty two in EPA per rush, dead
last in yards per carry, dead last, and success rate
on first half runs down the stretch of the season.

(17:19):
They were playing with these light boxes. They were able
to get away with that because they were playing with
a lead so much because of their first half offense
that you did not feel like you could run the
ball late in games at all, because you're playing from behind,
and you know that everything is built off of like
the game state that you're in. And I buy into

(17:40):
this so much, and when I am talking to coaches
talking about this about how you need to get out
to those leads and so like, let's say the Baltimore
Ravens struggle a little bit more this year at jumping
out to leads. That's going to impact that second half
defense a ton, and opponents are going to be able
to run on them a little bit more in those situations.
Last point to me on the team this year as

(18:01):
it relates to the weight cut. One of the reasons
that I think Lamar went ahead and did this. You know,
remember that picture that got tweeted out like a year
ago or so where Lamar has his gut sticking ice
calling a bag of popcorn in one hand, in a
soda and another you know, just made his rounds on Twitter.
Lamar's yards per carry on scrambles have gone down precipitously

(18:23):
year after year. He was averaging ten point four in
twenty nineteen, ten point four yards per carry on scrambles
last year. That was at seven point sorry in twenty
twenty two, that was at seven point nine. Last year,
that had dropped all the way down to six point six,
despite the fact that he faced seven man boxes on
just twenty seven percent of those scrambles, which is the

(18:44):
far far lower.

Speaker 3 (18:45):
Rate than what he was facing before.

Speaker 6 (18:46):
So right, more opportunities to run and he was scrambling
for fewer yards per carry when he blitzed and then scrambled.
He dropped from eleven point four yards per carry from
twenty nineteen to twenty twenty two all the way down
to four point seven yards per carry last year. So
those like quick instinct decisions to go ahead and scramble,

(19:07):
which are the number one most effective play in football,
They're more effective than any type of dropback, than any
type of route. If you have a designed pass play
where the quarterback drops back and then he decides based
on the look or the coverage or the passer so
he wants to scramble and finds an open run line.
There is not a play out there that is more
efficient at from an EPA perspective, from a yard per

(19:28):
play perspective, and Lamar was terrible in those relatively speaking
to earlier parts in his career. So if he can
get a little bit more of that burst and quickness
back those first few steps to get through that offensive
line and then make something positive on those scrambles, definitely
are going to help, because he's dropping back to pass
a lot more now in this offense than he was
in prior iteration. So but I agree completely with you, guys,

(19:52):
spot play as opposed to future play.

Speaker 1 (19:55):
It'll be interesting to see how operators think about Lamar
Jackson's rushing totals game to game. Do they go by
what his numbers have sort of descended to or do
they go by what the public opinion thinks and always
shade it a little bit higher because they know that
squares are generally going to bet Lamar Jackson over based

(20:17):
on his reputation. All right, we love the Bengals. Simon
the Cincinnati Bengals game roaring back thirteen to one to
win the Super Bowl. We bet them at twenty to
one early in the spring plus one forty five to

(20:38):
win the division already feels too low. Their season win
total is ten and a half. Their strength the schedule
is sixth. Easiest Oline rank is twenty one. Really comes
down to Orlando Brown Junior. Can he get back to
the form that made him one of the better tackles
in the leagues with the Ravens and with the Chiefs

(20:58):
last year in his first with the Bengals was a
middling D line rank is also middlenk thirteenth lost DJ reader,
which is tough. But they do have Trey Hendrickson who
is a dominant ed rusher and when you have that,
that helps raise the stakes for your performance. And they
also have lou An Aroumo, who was still one of

(21:18):
the most creative defensive coiners in the league. So they
have to be one of the leading candidates along with
the Carolina Panthers Simon for worse to first in the division.

Speaker 4 (21:32):
Yeah, and we talk every year this is there's always
some lazy teams for us to have to do work on,
and this is one of those teams where it's just like, oh,
their star quarterback was hurt last year, now they have
a last place schedule. Don't don't overthink this, right, It's
it's really that simple sometimes. And you know, I think
you can touch on DJ Reader leaving is a big
deal to me, right that defense. I understand whether there's

(21:52):
people that have questions about their defense. And then you
can go to the offensive line and people have questions
about the offensive line as well. And you know, to me,
me and you talked about Chad, we think that organization
is failing them right now, right they're failing Joe Burrow.
Joe Burrow, he's already having major surgery on his wrist
right taking. I don't know if he took something to
have his leg and put into his wrist, and they
said he had a fifty to fifty percent chance just

(22:15):
coming back from it, like having full motion in his wrist.

Speaker 2 (22:19):
So not not.

Speaker 4 (22:21):
Only did he beat those odds, he beat the odds
of him actually be able to come back and have
you know, power and grip on throwing the football again,
Like that was not something I was guaranteed, which I
couldn't believe, Like it felt like that shit in a
bigger story of this offseason. It really wasn't, because obviously
it worked out. Right, He's in camp, he's throwing dimes
in the corner. It feels like he had two days
read a little bit of rust and now it's all gone.
And every clip I've seen it just looks like old

(22:42):
Joe Burrow. So no worry there, Right, So it's it
does stink that their offensive line still has questions. Right,
I seen your notes here. You have a little thing
about Orlando Brown, right, like is he gonna is he
gonna be the guy we need him.

Speaker 2 (22:57):
To beat and really protect Joe Burrow.

Speaker 4 (22:59):
We don't have the answer for that, but we do
have the answers for is you know, we took it
from Warren here, it's like the Ravens who have the
six hardest schedule or the fourth art schedule because they
have they're the one seed and at the first place schedule,
this team who was last has one of the easiest
schedule in Football's that's a huge deal of people like
that really does matter, especially when it's like, you know,
the Ravens might have a run where they go back

(23:19):
to back. You know, they might go to Houston, they
might go to the Bills, they might go to the Chiefs.
The Bengals don't have that. They're literally playing you know,
the Patriots and like really bad fourth place teams from
last year. So yeah, it's all there, Chad. Obviously, we
don't want people to bet their future adds. We already
told people to bet in the spring of twenty to one.
Now it's down to thirteen, fourteen and one. A lot
of books. I wouldn't bet that yet because we've seen

(23:41):
historically Joe Burrow, I know, he's been injured in the
past and they've come out slow because of that, and
he's not dealing with that right now. Historically, though, they
do come out slow. This Bengals team and Joe Burrow.
So you might be able to get better value in
a couple of weeks after the season starts. If they
start one and two or you know, one in three
something crazy happens like that, you be able to get
better value on that bet them betting right now divisional odds.

(24:02):
Actually I don't I don't mind that chat plus one
forty divisional odds if you want to bet that. I
still think there's some value there the fact they're at
a plus number, just because I do think they're right
there the Ravens skill level wise. But then you factor
in the fact that they have that such an easier schedule,
It's like, Okay, that gives that to me, makes them
the odds on favor for this division right now. Right
I think they're the best team in the most complete team.

(24:23):
So yeah, if you want to take their over ten
and a half, you can. Depends on your book, it
might be juiced and minus one fifty minus one forty.
To me, if I don't want to pay that big
because I've been paying big in a lot of other places,
I'll just I'll just take the plus one forty and
let that ride. So I like, I definitely like the
division odds better that I do like their win total.

Speaker 1 (24:42):
Yeah, it's a good point, Like I'm saying, it's a
little bit cheap, but I think that's just because in
my head the value of them is so much higher
and not the expectations are so much higher. So it
feels like plus one forty five. I'm just like, I

(25:03):
feel like at that number, i'd want more. You make
a really good point about Joe Burrow's career. So here's
something interesting. Thirty six twenty two and one against the spread. Overall,
His ATS struggles are early in the season, two and

(25:25):
six against the spread in his first two games of
the year thirty four to sixteen. The rest of the time,
that two and six mark is tied with Kirk Cousins
for the worst mark of fifty nine quarterbacks since Joe
Burrow was drafted. The first two games this year Patriots
minus nine. There's a lot of reasons why we are

(25:49):
we might bet the Patriots.

Speaker 2 (25:51):
We haven't got it week, we said have as per set,
we're probably gonna do.

Speaker 1 (25:53):
It, Yeah, exactly, and then they play the Chiefs and
there's no line set yet. Warren thoughts on the Bengals.
I agree with Simon this is not an overthinking one.
Top three quarterback in the NFL who didn't play last
year kind of gets forgotten coming back playing the six

(26:15):
easiest schedule. Does nothing else really matters.

Speaker 6 (26:19):
Yeah, I think in this case as simple is better.
I will say that Presett better be starting week one.
I've got some bets that were set. He was laying
like minus four hundred that Persett is in higher. I
think the Perssett will start week one. It's looking good,
so I think he should be. He should be there.
But if you look at Joe Burrow, like he only

(26:39):
played five true games where he was viewed as one
hundred percent and the Bengals went four and one and
not just four and one last year. In those games,
think about who they played. The forty nine Ers, the Bills,
the Seahawks, the Cardinals. Now we know the Cardinals are down,
there's other three teams fine, two of them exceptional.

Speaker 3 (26:56):
And then they.

Speaker 6 (26:57):
Lost to the Texans thirty to twenty seven on a
field goal as time expired. Right, So, like that was
a back and forth game against CJ Stroud Light in
the year when cjs drowd was absolutely bawling. So and
this is a team that I think the Bengals are solid.
I don't love the loss of Dj Reider. When we
talk about lou An Arumo, though he was put in

(27:18):
a difficult situation last year, and we kind of knew
that heading into the season. They lost both their starting
safeties from twenty twenty two. So you've got a defensive
coordinator that is used to changing things up. You know,
Simon knows this too. Like every single game plan that
he creates, he's sort of like Spags in a sense.
They come up with something, try something new, make those
halftime adjustments. He's so good in the second half. That's

(27:39):
hard to do when you don't have good safeties there
when your safeties are both brand new as they were
last year, and so it kind of was easier to
anticipate that they might take a little bit of a
step back, and they did. They fell off. They were
number nine and twenty two. They dropped all the way
down to number thirty two last year. When defending early downs,
that's got to regress, that's got to improve a little
bit this upcoming season. I predict that they're going to

(28:02):
play the number one easiest schedule of passing offenses this year.
In addition, they get to face inexperienced quarterbacks and first
and second year players. Think about all the young quarterbacks
that lou An Rumo's defense is going to go up against, Bonnicks,
Jaden Daniels, Drake May. If Drake May plays, we'll see
it could be obviously be Jacoby percent instead hopefully Will Levis,

(28:22):
Aiden O'Connell and Bryce Young. I mean, so that's a
very nice schedule of like some younger, inexperienced quarterbacks that
they get to play. When you look at the nutshell
of the Cincinnati Bengals last year and put this into context,
they played the number one toughest schedule. They played eleven
games versus playoff teams, which was the most of any
team in the NFL since two thousand. They played fourteen

(28:43):
games versus teams that were over five hundred, That was
tied for the most of any team since two thousand.
Despite that brutal schedule, Despite that, Joe Burrow played only
five true games where he played healthy all the way
through missing or injured for twelve of seventeen games. The
Bengals went nine and eight and steer Neil still nearly
made the playoffs, and that is absurd.

Speaker 3 (29:05):
This year, they're.

Speaker 6 (29:05):
Playing the number six easiest schedule, the number one biggest
year over year improvement for any team. I love all
of that. The two things that I will say is
like caveats besides DJ readers loss, Number one, that offensive line,
which you guys already hit on this team on pass
block win rate. They've ranked number thirty, number thirty, and
number twenty seven the last three years. They're the only

(29:26):
offensive line to rank twenty seventh or worse in both
twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two, and they still
didn't solve that last year in twenty twenty three. That
does not That is measured not by your quarterback. That
is measured just by how well does that offensive line
block the defensive line and allow them past them using
the dots and the chips and the players. So that

(29:48):
is obviously very concerning why they don't give Joe Burrow
better protection and emphasize that that's a concern.

Speaker 3 (29:54):
Hopefully it improves this year.

Speaker 6 (29:56):
Arguably can't get worse though, so that's the only positive,
but it needs to improve. And then it's this the
fact that, yes, while they play an easy schedule, and
we talked about this the last time that I was on, Well,
they play an easy schedule. They have the most difficult
prep and rest schedule from a timing perspective, and that's
what I look at a lot. They play the three
games in ten days, which isn't great, and they play

(30:17):
that late in the season. Also, they also play three
short week road games. Their game Week four in Carolina
is off of a Monday night football game. They play
Week ten in Baltimore that's a Thursday night game, so
that's on a short week, and Week fifteen they play
in Tennessee after a Monday night football game. No team
plays more than three short week road games this year,

(30:39):
and they played three short week road games last year,
So that's got to be frustrating from like a scheduling perspective.
Why the league continues to give the Bengals three short
week road games for back to back years when no
other team has to deal with that, that's pretty absurd.
They're also playing those game three games in ten days,
which is annoying late in the season, so that provides

(31:02):
a little bit of difficulty for them. But overall, I
would agree that the upside is there. From a personal perspective,
I thought it was admirable what the coaches were able
to do with a backup quarterback in there. Some people
aren't in on Zach Taylor nearly as much. I was
not myself, but seeing what he was able to do
last year with their backup quarterbacks have made me like

(31:22):
the play calling and the offensive mind of Zach Taylor
a little bit more. I would be this would be
a team that I'd be rather buying on than selling
this year. I think that there are going to be
spots for them. The only thing I will say if
you're looking to buy them late, and Simon was saying,
maybe they start one to two, one and three those
first that first month of the season. They're playing New England, Carolina,

(31:45):
and Washington, three teams that have either young, inexperienced quarterbacks
or aren't viewed.

Speaker 3 (31:50):
As good teams.

Speaker 6 (31:51):
That toughest game is going to be that game against
the Kansas City Chiefs in Week two, So they could
start out a little bit hot, and if you're better
over and win total, you hope that they do because
that stretch run down later and on in the season
is a little bit more difficult. But this is going
to be a fun team to watch this year and
I really hope for the good of your bets, potentially

(32:12):
my bet if I decide to tail you on this one,
as well as the league in general. We want Joe
Burrow to be good this NFL. The league is so
much more fun when Joe Burrow is balling out and
playing hard and is healthy, and so I hope that
that's the case all the way through and this offensive
line protects him a little bit better.

Speaker 1 (32:30):
Well, it's kind of amazing that the Bengals have now
spent multiple years with Joe Burrow injured at the end
of the year or injured coming into training camp, and
they still have now figured out how to prioritize protecting
Joe Burrow. So yeah, for all of our sakes, let's
make sure that the Bengals. Let's hope that the Bengals

(32:51):
have done that in some capacity. Cleveland Cleveland forty to
one plus six hundred. The win total is eight and
a half. Their O line rank is fourth Wyatt Teller

(33:12):
Joel Patonio, both top twenty rated guards, Ethan Pozick, top
top fifteen center. Their offensive line is built to do
exactly what Kevin Stefanski wants it to do. It is
why The Browns continued to perform for most of the
year last year, even after they had so many injuries

(33:33):
with Nick Chubb and Deshaun Watson. D Lion rank is fourth.
Miles Garrett defending Defensive Player of the Year, also argue
like he is one of the few defensive linemen who
is worth a point against the point spread. This is
like JJ Watt twenty twelve level dominance. Look, it's going
to come down to Deshaun Watson, and I should say

(33:56):
the Browns have the third hardist schedule, so it's not
going to be an easy run for them. What do
we think of Deshaan Watson right now?

Speaker 4 (34:07):
Simon, I mean everything you see it's same old Deshaun
Watson in camp. Can't hit, can't hit guys in stride,
He's overthrowing guys when they're all open deep. It's just
we talked about whatever happened to Chat. It's just not
the same guy. And there's nothing more glaring than seeing
Joe Flacco step into that offense and look like an
all pro. Like all the pieces are so set up

(34:29):
there for Deshaun Watson to succeed. It's like the best
offensive line you can dream of. Marii Cooper. You forgot
how great of a player he was until Joe Flacco
came back. It's just like that's the that's the thing
that just stands out to me. It's like all the
weaponers are there. I mean, Joe Flack, woun't even have
Nick Chubb and they were still running the ball with
I think it might have been four was running for
like five six yards of pop. Like that oldfensive line

(34:51):
is incredible. You didn't even touch on it. That old
line coach is gone. Like that's a big deal to me.
They might be forth ranked. Yeah, I guarantee you next
year chat we're talking about this, they'll be back down
to eight or ten. Right, That's how big of a
deal I think having a coach like that lead them.

Speaker 2 (35:06):
So this is the team I don't know what to
do with.

Speaker 4 (35:08):
Last year, me and you loved they're over. We were
all in on it because we were just in love
with their defense. We're in love with their offensive line,
and we thought, Okay, Deshaun Watson's had a full offseason,
he'll get right now, right like he's he should legitter
should be gone. We got lucky he got hurt because
I mean we probably would have got there with the
defense defense by itself, but you know, we needed Joe.

Speaker 2 (35:28):
Flacker to come in.

Speaker 1 (35:29):
It was gonna be close.

Speaker 2 (35:30):
It was gonna be close.

Speaker 4 (35:31):
So I feel on them right now, Like I look
at the book, they're over eight and a half is
minus won forty minus went thirty five on bet three
sixty five. Right now, I'm tempted to take it just
because of this defense. Like Schwartzman, he's just got these
guys humming, and like Miles Garrett, I can't see him
letting this team be below nine wins.

Speaker 2 (35:50):
It's like, I do believe in that defense that much, but.

Speaker 4 (35:53):
It's just hard with Watson, he's so inconsistent, and it's
we touched on.

Speaker 2 (35:58):
They have a tougher schedule as well.

Speaker 4 (36:00):
But you know, I'm very hesitant to take this under
I guess I'm indecisive at this point, but their divisional
odds wouldn't touch them. I still think this is either
Ravens or Bengals. The books got this right, having the
Ravens and Bengals so much higher, you know, both them
plus one forty and then having these guys plus six hundred,
and I think Pittsburgh's like plus eight hundred, that's how

(36:21):
it should be in this division. It's like those two
guys are definitely the kings of this division.

Speaker 2 (36:26):
So just viewing this.

Speaker 4 (36:28):
Browns team, I'm sad to say that it's like if
they had a guy, if they had maybe kept Baker,
who knows, right, Chad, Like that's the saddest part of
all of this. It's like, you know, they try to
do something that felt smart and right, right, going to
get a guy who's proven, who's done it for a
couple of years. Little do they know that he might
just be mentally broken, which is what we talked about Watson.

(36:49):
So I just I want to get behind this team
because I love what they have so much on the
defensive side and their offensive line and their offensive weapons.
But it's just not doing it for me right now.
So I'm going to lean towards the over, but I'm
not putting anything on it.

Speaker 1 (37:05):
Bill Callahan was the offensive line coach last year who
you've talked about, who's one of the most highly regarded
offensive line coaches of the past twenty years in the NFL,
went to join his son, Brian Callahan is the offensive
line coach supporting him and the Tennessee Titans. Callahan Brian
is the new head coach there. Yeah, Deshaun Watson. The

(37:25):
best game he had last year was when his shoulder
nearly fell off and he was clearly shot up with
so many plain killers that he finally played well, but
his season was done after that. Under sixty percent completion
percentage with the Browns versus over sixty seven with Houston,
five point three touchdown rate with the Texans, four point

(37:47):
one touchdown rate with the Browns, pascer rating over one
hundred with Houston, near eighty with Cleveland Warren. It feels
like they missed a window. They had their shot last
year if DeShawn had been able to be Toshaun, with
the way things played out and with how good this.

Speaker 6 (38:06):
Defense is well, especially now that they have to pay
Deshaun Watson this exorbitant rate from a salary cap perspective
that kicked in this season continues for the next several years.
The thing that I struggle with, and it's a great
callback to Baker Mayfield time and with regards to what
this team was looking like back in those early years.

(38:28):
Remember Kevin Sefanski came in and the COVID year was
his first season coaching, and they went to the playoffs
and he got Baker Mayfield to play somewhat well, and
he won Coach of the Year that year. In twenty
twenty one, of the things that they were doing really
well that year ended to the next year was they
were doing what Kevin Sefanski brought from Minnesota, which was
a lot of heavier sets and play action out of

(38:50):
these heavier sets, and they rarely used eleven personnel. That
it was thirty six percent usage of eleven personnel on
early downs in the first three quarters in twenty twenty
and two one, who was still only thirty seven percent
once they got Watson. They've ratcheted that up massively. Last
year they were all the way up at sixty six
percent early downs in the first three quarters. They used

(39:11):
three plus wide receivers on seventy one percent of early
downs in the first three quarters. That was the sixth
highest rate.

Speaker 3 (39:17):
In the NFL.

Speaker 6 (39:19):
The thing is, Deshaun Watson was much better when he
was using two tight end sets rather than of twelve
personnel rather than of eleven personnel. He averaged nearly two
more yards per pass attempt when he was passing the
ball with two tight ends out on the football field,
his EPA per play was plus one three. His EPA
per play in eleven personnel was minus point oh two

(39:41):
early downs.

Speaker 3 (39:42):
In the first three quarters.

Speaker 6 (39:43):
So this is the situation that I struggle with is
I think Stefanski is as a Ford thinking good coach,
but he's doing what he thinks Watson wants, which is
a lot of spread and eleven personnel. But Watson has
been better from twelve and Sefanski's offense is better from twelve.
If you if you forget all the quarterbacks Stefanski arrives

(40:04):
in twenty twenty, throw them all into the mix, take
their name tags off, all the different quarterbacks that have
played in Cleveland. If you look at what he's done
over those four years, twenty twenty one, twenty two to
twenty three, eleven personnel, they're minus point zero five EPA
twelve personnel, they are plus point one point eight eleven personnel.
They average six point eight yards per tempt eleven twelve personnel,

(40:26):
they average eight point one. We're talking about from the
number two twenty two offense all the way to the
number seven offense or the number twenty five offense to
the number five offense. When they're in twelve personnel versus eleven,
they just are better out of twelve. The Fanski's offense
is decidedly better there and and Watson has been better
as well, but they just don't want to go in
that route it looks like, and so I just have

(40:48):
concerns about, like what this offense is going to look like.
And I certainly don't think they're going to use a
lot of twelve. They were in the Auk sweepstakes like
they wanted another wide receiver, and so they're trying to
lean into If Watson doesn't.

Speaker 3 (41:00):
Play well, we are all screwed.

Speaker 6 (41:02):
And we need Watson to play well because we gave
him all this guaranteed money. Let's figure out ways to
get great wide receivers in here. As it relates to
the other side of the ball on the defense.

Speaker 1 (41:10):
Hold on me, let me just cut you off for
one sec. That is a great point that I have
not heard anybody make about the eleven personnel versus the
twelve personnel and Deshaun Watson, because it speaks to so
many things. It speaks to maybe what Kevin Stefanski is
thinking about how he wants to manage the quarterback. If

(41:32):
it speaks to maybe what's Kevin Stefanski is feeling because
his owner gave gobs and gobs of guaranteed money to
Deshaun Watson. That is fascinating way to think about this
team in a dysfunctional context. Brilliant love it.

Speaker 6 (41:56):
Yeah, No, it's something that I've been thinking about just
by looking at personnel and just Knowingfanci I was on
him Coach of the Year in twenty twenty. I thought
his system would mesh well with Baker Mayfield. Obviously, Baker
didn't work out and he wasn't perfect here, but it's
just they've changed a lot of things to acquiesce to

(42:17):
Deshaun Watson's preferred style of play. It's not really the
bag for Stefanski and it hasn't worked out for Watson either.
On the other side of the ball, Yes, great defense,
and yes, Jim Schwartz has been very good from the
way that he's calling this defense. If you look though,
at the quarterbacks that they played last year, they played
a lot of bad quarterbacks last year, and they had

(42:39):
a lot of success against those bad quarterbacks. The positive
is that they were terrible from a health perspective, they
were twenty seventh, so maybe they'll be better from a
health perspective this upcoming season. I still think the defense
is going to be great. And if you look visually
at the way that this schedule is laid out, it's
like after that Week one game against the Dallas Cowboys
in Cleveland, there's two real defined pockets of easy opponents

(43:03):
back to back to back, and then there's like several
streaks of very difficult opponents, and they end the season
and a very difficult run playing against the Chiefs, against
the Bengals, against the Dolphins, at least that game's in
Cleveland where Tua struggles out in the cold potentially, and
then against the Ravens. Those are four playoff caliber teams
that they're going to play down the stretch, So you know,

(43:26):
if you have back them over in their win total
and then you have the ability to hedge a little
bit late if they still aren't there, that's something that
could be to your advantage. But this is I agree
with something to say this is a tough team to
peg from a wins perspective, just because they have a
lot of the pieces, so much is just dependent upon

(43:47):
is the quarterback going to work this year, and from
a skill perspective, you would say he's got to, he's
bound to. It can't continue like this, But you just
never know. And I'm interested to see what ends up
happening if we get to see his back up in
there Jamis Winston this upcoming season at all.

Speaker 1 (44:04):
All right, the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Speaker 5 (44:06):
Y'all game today?

Speaker 2 (44:07):
You ain't new to us no more, now, you.

Speaker 5 (44:09):
Know what I mean?

Speaker 1 (44:11):
Steelers fifty to one to win the super Bowl plus
way eight hundred to win the division. Eight and a
half is the season win total, hardest schedule in the
NFL O line eighth overall. But I think there's a
lot of questions, a lot of questions, especially on the

(44:31):
right side uh D line eighth as well. TJ. Watt
is in a defensive lineman, but he's obviously a top
two or three edge rusher and defensive player when he's healthy.
The team is just different when he is on the field.
We know that, we bet that Cameron Hayward still a presence,
showed some signs of age last year. Look, Warren, it's

(44:55):
the base of question. Mike Tomlin has never had a
losing season as a head coach. It has been guaranteed
money to bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers with Mike Tomlin
as the head coach, Russell Wilson is the starting quarterback,
Justin Fields is the backup Warren Sharp? Is this the
year you fade the Steelers' win total?

Speaker 6 (45:21):
So I think the NFL absolutely has set it up
for that to be the case?

Speaker 3 (45:26):
Is it though?

Speaker 1 (45:27):
Boy?

Speaker 6 (45:28):
They absolutely did. And actually Mike North, who is the
head guy from a scheduling perspective, his immediate interviews after
the schedule was released, he already was talking about this storyline.
This is a baked in storyline for the NFL season.
He already was talking about how tough that Steelers run
is late in the year and will they be able
to continue this streak for Mike Tomlin? And so they

(45:52):
stacked this schedule. I have never seen before from week
eleven onward that a team plays every single one of
their divisional games from a week eleven onward. I've calculated back,
I don't see the ever happening previously. And then you
take into consideration the only two teams that they play
that aren't in their division for week eleven onward are
the Chiefs and the Eagles right the three times potentially

(46:16):
trying to get three times Super Bowls in a row.
The Chiefs and the Eagles, who are obviously a good
team year in a year out, one that went to
the Super Bowl in twenty twenty two. So it's a
brutal schedule down the stretch. They have to bank wins early.
If they're going to come close to this at all,
they have to bank wins. And their schedule is easier
to start, but it's not super easy. They're still playing

(46:37):
the Dallas Cowboys, They're still playing the Jets of Aaron
Rodgers is there. They still have to play John Harbaugh's
La Chargers, so and the Falcons if they're going to
be a turnaround team this year. So they've got those
teams in the first half of the schedule, and then
they got that ridiculous run late, so that's going to
be a challenge for them. People are really critical of
Arthur Smith because what they saw down in at Las Alta,

(47:00):
and I understand that, especially from the fantasy perspective. A
lot of guys who had Jean Robinson and were really
disappointed at the way he was utilized in some of
the talking points that came out in the press conferences.

Speaker 3 (47:12):
I get it some people don't really like Arthur Smith.

Speaker 6 (47:15):
The only thing I'll say is this, There's no way
Arthur Smith is any worse than what's been going on
in Pittsburgh for the last several years. I mean, the
oftensive coordinating situation in Pittsburgh has been terrible. I'll throw
this trivia point out to you guys.

Speaker 3 (47:26):
Both through Week four, the.

Speaker 6 (47:30):
Pittsburgh Steelers offense, led by Matt Canada, had twenty six
drives in the first half of games. Twenty six first
half drives. How many made it to the red zone.
Of the twenty six drives in the first half the
first four weeks, how many made it to the red zone.

Speaker 1 (47:44):
Zero.

Speaker 3 (47:45):
I was gonna say, like, very close, You're very close.

Speaker 6 (47:48):
One one out of twenty six drives actually made it
to the red zone in the first half. This team
was not creative, they were not aggressive, and they were
far too predictable. With Matt Canada as the play call.
The difference that's going to happen is threefold this year,
in my opinion, based upon what I know about Arthur Smith.
Number One, a lot more play action. We are going

(48:08):
to see a ton more play action. The Pittsburgh Steelers
are FRAN thirty one in play action usage rate for
multiple years in a row. The Falcons used play action
at the number four highest rate. We are going to
see a lot more play action in the offense.

Speaker 3 (48:20):
That's first. Number two.

Speaker 6 (48:22):
We are going to see a lot more heavier personnel
groupings in Pittsburgh.

Speaker 2 (48:25):
Now.

Speaker 6 (48:25):
I don't know if they end up getting Ayuk and
if that changes anything or not, but Arthur Smith loves
to operate out of heavier personnel. They used eleven personnel
last year. If that's three wide receivers at the lowest
rate of any team in the NFL. The Pittsburgh Steelers
were at number seven in highest usage rate seventy one
percent for the Steelers seventeen percent the exact inverse from

(48:45):
a number perspective, seventeen percent for the Falcons, which was
lowest in the NFL. They used the highest rate of
two tight end sets. So we're going to see more
two tight ends out on the field, and then I
think we're going to see deeper passes down the field.
The Atlanta Falcons love to run the ball early. That's
not going to change the Steelers were running it a lot.
The Falcons are going to run. Sorry, the Steelers are
running a lot before Arthur Smith. They're gonna run it

(49:06):
a lot after Arthur Smith. He likes to run the football.
He runs the ball out of heavier sets to set
up deeper shots down the field. And that's one of
the things the Atlanta Falcons did a lot last year.
They were number four in rate of passes that were
traveling downfield, whereas the Denver Broncos I'm saying Denver because
of Russell Wilson, were dead last. And this is where
I think Justin Fields actually could play a role if

(49:27):
you look at the last two years. I know Russell
Wilson is famous for this moon ball down the field,
but actually Justin Fields is better throwing the ball deeper
down the field.

Speaker 3 (49:36):
Chad.

Speaker 6 (49:36):
I mean, you know from your experience with him, he
has his faults and he's gotten his sacks, and they
haven't had a lot of receivers to work with in Chicago,
but he has been better than Russell Wilson as over
the last two years combined at throwing the ball deep
down the field, and I think that they're going to
be able to gain some edge with his mobility and
his scrambling, which is better obviously than Russell Wilson. So

(49:58):
I'm interested to see how this quarterback battle ultimately plays out.
But I just don't think that this offense is suddenly
going to be a disaster because they've got Arthur Smith.
It's been a disaster before. Arthur Smith can only help
improve things a little bit. But this schedule is so daunting.

Speaker 5 (50:13):
It's a fine line between, you know, drinking wine and
squashing greats at.

Speaker 1 (50:18):
The end of the season. You pointed it out, this
is the schedule. Ravens, Browns Bengals, Browns Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, Bengals. Simon,
It's like the schedule makers went full WWE on Mike Tomlin.
What they know his pension for beating the season win

(50:41):
totals and winning as an underdog there. It's like they're
daring us to play the Steelers and daring the Steelers
and Mike Tomlin to continue this streak.

Speaker 3 (50:51):
Man.

Speaker 5 (50:51):
We make the simple complex in this business, don't we.

Speaker 4 (50:53):
Yeah, yeah, And I joke with you, it's this is
a team that when I make my annual trip to
Vegas in May, I picked the over It's just something
I do every year. And it's the first time in
my life as a professional better that I had all
the pros around me being like, no, this is the
year to go under.

Speaker 2 (51:08):
And I hate looking at the schedule ahead of time
like that and trying to predict wins and loss his chat.

Speaker 4 (51:13):
But like you said, you look at that schedule, you
know you don't need to start doing predictions, right. You
can just look at it and go, oh, that's brutal.
Then you factor in last year, things just bounced right
for this team. Yeah, like they call teams when they
had their backups. In even their win against the Ravens.
I think the Ravens were winning thirteen to three in
that game. They're dominating the entire game. They had a
fluke like you know, fifty yard touchdown, then the I

(51:35):
think they had to turnover get another touchdown all a
sudden they win that game. It's like that's where tomlin
Mix is living. He muddies the water and they can
get these kind of crazy wins. I want to love
them too, because Arthur Smith is a guy that you
know me and you made a ton of money off
him when he was with Tennessee. Like that combo with
him of Rabel, that was the perfect comblo. I think
he has that once again with Tomlin. It's like his

(51:55):
type A personality will fit well with a guy who's
even more type A. It's like, no, no one gets
better than Tomlin. So to me, I wanted to love
this team, want to love this defense, want to love
the improvements they made, but the quarterbacks just don't do
it for me. Like Russell Wilson, he's in the perfect
system last year with the perfect head coach like Sean Payton.

(52:15):
It doesn't get much better than having a guy like
him with you. And he was totally out of him.
He was willing to eat sixty million dollars in dead
money this year just to get this guy all fat
team and out of that locker room. Justin Fields a
guy I mean you believed in. We kept thinking you
take that next step, and he just is not. He's
not worked on the footwork that needed to work on.
He still has happy feet, And I mean, you had

(52:35):
this incredible stat last year that just hung with me
all off season. When I tried betting this team, no
one struggled more in the fourth quarter than Justin Fields.
It was incredible for the first three quarters, he'd excel.
The fourth quarter he fell off a cliff. He was
by far the worst quarterback in the league. And fourth
quarter win rate and success rate. So this is a
team that I understand why people want to blindly bet this.

Speaker 2 (52:57):
It's it's eight and a half to the win total.

Speaker 4 (52:59):
It's plus twenty to want to take the over minus
one fifty to the under, I'm gonna take the under.
Like this this team has seven seven wins, six wins
written all over it. Just not even the fact the
way it ends this year, it's just a whole schedule,
Like their whole schedule is just brutal. And I don't
think they're gonna have all the injury luck they've kind
of had these last couple of years. Like Tomlin, you
just said it, Chad, it's just a lot of averages.

(53:20):
This guy's been playing with crazy luck and house money.
And he's also such a great coach, like we talked
about in our luck rankings. But it has to finally
catch up to him at some point. The hardest division
of football to me, if everyone's staying healthy, these teams
are still what we think they're gonna be. How do
you not pick this team to be the fourth team
in this division. It's just too many questions to me

(53:40):
at this point.

Speaker 5 (53:42):
It's a broad moment right here for you youngsters, let's live.

Speaker 4 (53:45):
Makes sense that you know, the public is still taking
their over, but it makes even more sense that this
is like the team that professionals are circling. So now
again not one of my bigger bets. Like my biggest
bets still bangles to win this division. But I'm on
the under eight and a half here, Chad.

Speaker 5 (54:00):
When you're out of time, we all know it, you
know what I mean, And so I just go hard
all day until we at that point where we know it.

Speaker 1 (54:09):
Yeah, you want to back Tomlins so badly because you
see what he's done over the years with quarterbacks who
had no business being in the NFL.

Speaker 5 (54:19):
I'm gonna cut you off because I laugh at that
all the time, like that's what the hell we pay
to do.

Speaker 1 (54:25):
But he also had much better defenses than right, we're
talking about the Duck Hodges years and even last year.
You always have to ask the question, is he making
his own luck or is he blessed by the stars? Right?

Speaker 5 (54:40):
I try to keep it real simple. Football is our game.
Our business is winning.

Speaker 1 (54:44):
Steelers are Week one dogs at the Falcons. The Steelers
have won at a sixty three percent clip against the
spread as an underdog under Mike Tomlin, making him the
most profitable coach as a in the past twenty years.
Mike Tomlin is the best coach against the spread period

(55:10):
the past twenty years.

Speaker 5 (55:12):
That's the greatest of all time. Look at your word.

Speaker 1 (55:15):
He knows something, he does something, He is able to
get his team motivated. That One of my favorite TikTok
videos right now is like the five best Mike Tomlin moments,
and one of them is he's walking through the tunnel
to the game and there's a fan who screams like, yeah, Mike,
let's go get him, and he goes, let me the
fuck alone. I'm working here, Like the guy is just

(55:38):
intense and he is ready, and we love that. We
know Matt Mitchell loves to put the Mike Tomlin drops
in the show. Let's Go Mack. He is our most animated, favorite, brilliant,
motivating tactician of a coach. Like you cannot discount how
brilliant he is a coach.

Speaker 5 (55:57):
So that's why the people kill me for catch phrases.
But I'm trying to capture a thought succacly without damn
talking too much, because I just hate talking.

Speaker 2 (56:06):
I'd rather do.

Speaker 1 (56:08):
Which is why it makes it scary to bit that
under eight and a half, And like Warren be to
the fire in your answer, you did not tell me
if you were going over under eight and a half
on the Steelers.

Speaker 3 (56:18):
No, so I would be going under if I had to.

Speaker 6 (56:22):
And here's one other factor that you guys mentioned, And
I wasn't thinking of this before, but it's perfect that
stat Simon mentioned about Justin Fields that you shared earlier, Chad,
the Steelers were nine and two in one score games
last year. Think about what that means. If Justin Fields
ends up getting inserted as the starting quarterback and then

(56:43):
he is struggling in the fourth quarter of these games,
Suddenly it's almost impossible for you to go nine and
two in these close games if he is one of
the worst quarterbacks in the NFL in those situations, and
certainly from a luck factor standpoint, you have the Steelers.
I've got on one of the pages in the book
the Critical and Game Deciding Stats, Steelers were plus eleven
in turnover margin last year. They were plus eleven in

(57:05):
sack margin, plus two in turnover margin, and plus four
and penalty margin.

Speaker 3 (57:10):
And if they don't do.

Speaker 6 (57:11):
All of those things again this year, and the biggest
one to me is the sacks. I mean, turnovers are
obviously a big factor too. Those will decide games more
than any other statistic, but a quarterback like Justin Field's
getting inserted there and taking more sacks. Sacks are absolute
drive killers. The rate at which you score points when

(57:32):
you take a sack on a drive is cut into
a third. You score points at a third of the
rate if you take a sack on a drive. And
we know his propensity to take sacks, that's going to
potentially impact turnovers and then his fourth quarter performance absolutely frightening.
And then you factor in that schedule. So I believe
that the schedule makers have this hope that they can

(57:56):
play it up as long as possible. In a perfect
world for the NFL and schedule makers, it would come
down to they've got them playing on Christmas. You know,
it will come down to those last couple of weeks
of the season. Can Mike Tomlin win the next two
games and get to over five hundred like this is
gonna be something You're gonna turn on your TV on
Christmas and you were going to hear the announcer say

(58:17):
something like that. I firmly believe they'll be right underneath
that mark.

Speaker 3 (58:22):
As they enter.

Speaker 6 (58:23):
They're gonna need to win this game to be able
to get there, and they're not gonna get it done
against they play. I think the Kansas City Chiefs, either
the Chiefs or the Ravens on Christmas, I forget. I
think it's the Chiefs on the on Christmas. In week seventeen,
it's it's gonna be it's gonna be brutal for them.
So this is a narrative that's gonna play out. I
think Simon's guys are right. This is the year to

(58:45):
go the opposite way on the Steelers.

Speaker 1 (58:47):
So you mentioned the Steelers were nine to two in
one score games. That was the best mark in the NFL.
They've been over five hundred straight up in one score
games for eight straight years and five hundred straight up
or better in ten consecutive seasons. In fact, the best
straight up one loss mark in one score game since

(59:09):
two thousand and seven. Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, New England. We know
indian New England had Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Pittsburgh had
Ben Roethlisberger, obviously, but he got hurt a lot. So
what they really had was Mike Tomlin. So this is

(59:29):
a is you're betting the under, and a lot of
people feel that way. As Simon said, if you're betting
the under, hold your nose, yeah, close your eyes, hang
on to the handrail of that roller coaster, and you
better just pray because you are betting at your peril
against Mike Tomlin. There's got to be a great drop here.

Speaker 5 (59:49):
We all talk too much. Sharp dues can just see
it because sharp dues don't care what you say anyway.
They just watching, you know what I mean?

Speaker 1 (59:59):
All Right, We're in Sharp. That was fantastic. Everyone should
check out Sharp Football Analysis. We appreciate Warren offering the
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